铜铜铜 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 3 铜铜铜铜铜铜铜 作者：刘诗瑶 联系人：周小鸥 从业资格证号：F3041949 从业资格证号：F03093454 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：zhouxiaoou@zjtfqh.com 邮箱：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 本周观点 ◼ 上周，铜价冲高回落，盘间LME与沪期铜持续刷新历史新高，但随后在金银的带动下快速回落。LME高位14527.5美元/吨，沪期铜最高触及114320元/吨，随后快速下跌，符合我们多 杀多的预期。本周初来看，有色板块在贵金属下跌的带动下维持弱势，但低位产业链点价异常积极。周一收盘，铜价已回落至1月初水平。从分品种看，由于基本面的优良，铜铝两 品种也依然在本轮下跌中表现抗跌。 ◼ 上周五，伦敦金大跌9%，伦敦银大跌26%，美元指数大涨1%，而在本周初日盘贵金属及有色持续大跌。要弄懂本轮贵金属及有色的下跌，我们先要知道为何会出现之前的上涨。不少 传统分析给到的理由都是避险、央行配置以及美国经济的再通胀。与此同时，白银涨幅超过黄金，锡、镍等品种关 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data from the U.S. indicates rising inflation concerns, leading to renewed "reflation" worries, compounded by internal policy disagreements and personnel changes within the Federal Reserve, creating uncertainty about future monetary policy direction [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.5% month-on-month in December, marking the largest increase in five months, and increased by 3% year-on-year. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations [1]. - The U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January increased to 52.6, surpassing the 50 mark for the first time in 12 months and reaching the highest level since August 2022. The forward-looking new orders index surged to a new high since February 2022 [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Disagreements - The outgoing Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that the Fed should not lower interest rates this year, citing a strong economy and stable labor market, warning that rate cuts would hinder efforts to bring inflation back to target levels. Several Fed officials share this view, with many expecting no rate cuts until at least 2026 [2]. - In contrast, Fed Governor Stephen Moore advocates for significant rate cuts within the year, predicting a reduction of over 1 percentage point, arguing that there is no strong price pressure in the current economy [2]. Group 3: Tariff Effects and Inflation - The chief economist at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities noted that the expansion of U.S. manufacturing in January was the fastest since 2022, partly due to the transmission effects of import tariffs, which are expected to push inflation higher as companies pass on costs to consumers [3]. - The delayed impact of tariffs is anticipated to peak in the first half of 2026, potentially leading to more persistent inflation if the transmission rate approaches 70% [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Adjustments - Investment firms are adjusting their portfolios in response to inflation risks, with BlackRock's funds shorting U.S. and U.K. bonds to guard against falling interest rate expectations, while Bridgewater Associates favors equities [4]. - PIMCO is optimistic about U.S. Treasury bonds with embedded inflation adjustment mechanisms to hedge against rising inflation pressures [4].

Economic Data and Inflation Concerns - Recent economic data from the U.S. indicates renewed inflation concerns, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) rising by 0.5% month-on-month in December, the largest increase in five months, and a year-on-year increase of 3% [1][10] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations [1][10] - The ISM's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January rebounded to 52.6, marking the first time it has surpassed 50 in 12 months and the highest level since August 2022 [1][10] Manufacturing Expansion and Cost Pressures - The manufacturing sector's expansion in January was the fastest since 2022, attributed to the transmission effects of import tariffs, with companies passing on tariff-related costs to production [4][14] - This cost pressure may continue to push consumer inflation higher in the coming months, potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain stable interest rates for a period [4][14] Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - Major investment firms like BlackRock, Bridgewater Associates, and PIMCO are adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of a new wave of inflation [4][14] - BlackRock is shorting U.S. Treasuries and UK gilts to hedge against falling interest rate expectations, while Bridgewater favors equities over bonds, and PIMCO is optimistic about U.S. Treasuries with embedded inflation protection [4][14] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - The outgoing Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes the Fed should not lower interest rates this year due to the strong economy and stable labor market, which could hinder efforts to bring inflation back to target levels [5][15] - Concerns about the impact of tariffs on inflation have a lagging effect, with many companies still uncertain about the true costs of tariffs [5][15] Future Inflation Projections - Looking ahead to 2026, inflation is expected to exhibit a "front-high, back-low" characteristic, with potential stronger inflation persistence in the first half of the year due to tariff transmission and tax cuts [6][16] - If the tariff transmission rate approaches 70%, the core PCE price index could end 2026 at 2.6% year-on-year [6][16] Federal Reserve Leadership and Policy Direction - The potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair could influence monetary policy, as he has historically advocated for a strong monetary policy stance [8][18] - Warsh's leadership may alleviate market concerns about inflation management being overshadowed by political priorities, promoting a data-driven approach to policy [8][18]

Global Economic Trends - The global economy is experiencing two major trends: de-globalization and the AI technology revolution, expected to last at least 5-10 years[34] - The US dollar may have entered a long-term depreciation cycle, with global commodities likely entering a new "super cycle," leading to sustained price increases for gold, copper, and certain minor metals[34] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to enter a long-term slow bull trend, driven by the AI technology revolution and re-inflation, contingent on stable US-China relations[34] - The overall market is expected to show an upward trend in Q1, followed by fluctuations in Q2 and Q3, and a recovery in Q4[3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors related to AI, copper, rare earths, and gold, as well as military trade exports and domestic demand upgrades[3] - Anticipate a shift in market sentiment towards consumption in the second and third quarters, as the market narrative evolves towards "low inflation"[3] Market Dynamics - The current economic transition in China is marked by a shift in the real estate cycle and the transformation of old and new growth drivers[35] - A stable economic cycle in China is expected to lead to reduced volatility in the A-share market, supporting the long-term slow bull trend[35]

2026年A股年度策略报告 2026年2月3日 AI 兴，再通胀，驭慢牛 2026年A股年度策略报告 庞庞庞 庞庞庞 SAC 庞庞庞庞庞S0640515120001 庞庞庞庞庞010-59562478 庞庞庞dongzy@avicsec .com 2 ➢ 全球政经格局来看 ，2025 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞 ➢ 从大类资产中长期角度看 ，2025年进一步确认了全球两大趋势 ，即逆全球化与 AI科技革命，未来或将至少持续 5-10年。 美元或已进入长期贬值周期 ，全球商品有望进入新一轮 "超级周期"，黄金、铜以及部分小金属等资源品价格或将持 续上涨。 ➢ 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞庞A 股有望步入长 ...

【东方财富策略陈果市场下跌点评：这次调整并不担心，春季行情二波论，但这次调整也可能是未来真正巨震的 一个预演】 在前期市场最亢奋时，我们提示本轮春季行情会走成两波，目前市场走势验证中。 需要看到，本次A股跨年行情第一波的隐线其实还是跟着海外：去年底低点是担心联储不降息 /AI泡沫论（当时我 也指出市场过于悲观，是布局机会），这波是担心新联储主席缩表 。 年初市场的宽 【东方财富策略陈果市场下跌点评：这次调整并不担心，春季行情二波论，但这次调整也可能是未来真正巨震的 一个预演】 至于市场担心沃什缩表，我认为：1. 相信常识，既然特朗普要换鲍威尔不是要换上一个鹰派。 2.沃什上任后的联储决策和多年前沃什的观点不宜画等号。 3.市场对沃什的鹰派已做出反应，后续可以看下他的最新言论，例如后续国会听证会他的表态可能会给市场一颗 定心丸。 总体来说，我认为后续预期会收敛，不至于鸽到QE预期，也不至于太鹰。 市场稳住阵脚后，发现国内微观流动性基础仍在。 经历了第一波的回荡之后，春季行情第二波的躁动程度预计会降低，海外因素预计会降低，结构会比第一波更平 衡，也会有一些资金着眼三四月之后，开始布局内需，等待相关政策。 看得更长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, hold non - ferrous metals, oil and gas, and rare earths until the US economy faces a recession crisis. The long - end interest rate in the US is likely to rise, and the US economy may overheat. The macro market's political volatility will decline, and the trading will focus on economic and policy factors. Gold is expected to reach around $6,000 per ounce, and silver's high is expected to be around $120 per ounce. Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to Fed rate cuts and supply - demand gaps. The electrolytic aluminum market may have an upward trend, with a global supply shortage [10][35][98]. Summary by Directory Asset Allocation: Macroeconomic Contradictions and Allocation Strategies - The US Treasury drives currency and inflation. The continuous growth of US Treasury debt is backed by GDP. Since 2000, the US government's expenditure/GDP ratio has been rising, and the deficit rate is high. If the stock market has a crisis, it may bring opportunities for commodities. The sensitivity of non - ferrous metals to interest rates has increased since 2020, and the game between the Fed and global commodity inflation has intensified [4][13]. - In 2026, hold non - ferrous metals, oil and gas, and rare earths. The US economy may overheat, and the long - end interest rate is likely to rise. The macro market's political volatility will decline, and trading will focus on economic and policy factors [10][35]. Precious Metals: Where Are Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Headed? - Gold is at a new starting point. Due to geopolitical risks and dovish Fed expectations, it is recommended to increase gold allocation, focus on unilateral long positions and call option strategies. For silver, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and consider long positions in the gold - silver ratio. In 2026, gold is expected to reach around $6,000 per ounce, and silver is expected to have a high of around $120 per ounce [29][35]. - Platinum and palladium are driven by the precious metals sector. They have strong follow - up elasticity but are also affected by the callback of gold and silver. The current upward trend of platinum is relatively healthy, and there is a possibility of a new high. Palladium may have supplementary upward momentum [36]. Copper: How to Choose the Trading Mode under the Background of Weak Reality and Strong Expectations? - In terms of trading, copper price volatility has declined, and the positions of SHFE and LME copper are at historical highs. The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the spot import loss has narrowed. Globally, the total copper inventory is at a historical high, and the LC spread has narrowed [37][44][48]. - The global copper mine supply in 2025 was lower than expected, and the increase in 2026 is limited. The supply disturbance has increased, mainly due to factors such as reduced ore grades, strikes, and geopolitics. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the refined copper output is expected to increase by 68.75 million tons in 2026 [62][66][69]. - In terms of consumption, high - quality consumption such as AI computing centers and new energy consumption contribute significantly to copper consumption. The "14th Five - Year Plan" in China supports power grid investment, which will drive copper consumption. Traditional industries also show an increase in copper consumption, but there are differences among countries [75][80][92]. - The global refined copper supply will shift from surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026. It is expected that the global copper supply will have a shortage of 197,000 tons in 2026, and the Chinese market will have a shortage of 191,500 tons. Copper prices are expected to remain firm in 2026 [95][96][98]. Electrolytic Aluminum: How to Grasp the Contradictions and Rhythms after the Abnormal Breakthrough? - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum market was in a state of shock convergence. In the fourth quarter, the stock - futures linkage opened up the upward elasticity. In 2026, it is expected that the market will continue the upward - looking trend, with a global supply shortage of 420,000 - 760,000 tons. The short - term rhythm needs to pay attention to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, and the risks include macro - recession and over - production in Indonesia [100][101][104]. - Currently, the Shanghai aluminum is in a high - level shock, with a neutral - strong position. The short - term micro - demand is weak, but the macro - risk preference is optimistic, and it has marginal upward momentum [110]. Over - the - Counter Options: How to Use Option Hedging Tools under High Volatility and High Prices? - For long positions, when the price is high, consider replacing with in - the - money call options to retain the upside potential and control the maximum drawdown. You can also use spread options to optimize costs with a capped upside [118][122]. - For selling hedging of inventory, consider buying put collar options to optimize the hedging cost, limit inventory price fluctuations between $100,000 - $120,000, and receive an option premium of $150 per ton [126].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260201 债市窄幅震荡中等待新催化（2026 年第 5 期） 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20260126- 20260130）》 2026-01-31 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130）》 2026-01-31 东吴证券研究所 1 / 38 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 如何看待 2026 年 1 月的 PMI 数据，以及央行针对非银机构的流动性安 排？本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30），10 年期国债活跃 ...

国债期货研发报告 国债期货 11 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 债市情绪修复，但利空因素尚存 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1 月期债盘面先下后上，中旬起债市情绪有所修复。截止 1 月 30 日收 盘，TS、TF、T、TL 主力合约月内分别-0.05%、+0.15%、+0.45%、+0.48%。 期债盘面估值多数时间处于中性偏低水平，按中债估值与期债结算价计算， 截止 1 月 29 日收盘，TS、TF、T、TL 主力合约 IRR 分别为 1.3258%、 1.4564%、1.3652%、2.4065% 【市场展望】 综合来看，1 月公布的月度宏观数据有喜有忧。外需带动生产端韧性较 足，但内需端改善较为有限；"再通胀"进展得到确认，但价格结构上的分 化依旧明显；企业部门融资需求继续回升，但受制于收入预期与房价，居民 部门延续"缩表"态势。与此同时，央行对银行间市场流动性的呵护态度保 持不变且明确年内总量宽松还有一定空间，这与去年一季度央行流动性管理 紧平衡存在较大不同。不过，短期内总量宽松落地概率或不高。 后续而言，考虑到基本面现状与央行对流动性的呵护，债市中短端风险 较为可控，但在政策利率调降预期 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a "performance verification period," shifting from a liquidity-driven valuation expansion to a focus on companies with real profits and orders [3] - The external environment is changing, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate path stabilizing, making RMB assets an attractive option for global diversification [4] - Long-term industry trends, such as AI development, global technology cycles, and domestic supply-side optimization policies, are forming a solid foundation for the market's mid-term outlook [4] Group 2 - The recommended asset allocation focuses on technology and cyclical sectors, with technology being driven by the ongoing global AI trend and its transition from training to real-world applications [5] - In the cyclical sector, there is a suggestion to consider non-ferrous metals and securities, with expectations of price increases driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and improving fundamentals [5][6] - Three reinforcing logics include the rigid supply of key resources, rising macro hedging demand for precious metals, and the strategic importance of resource security in national policy [6][7][8] Group 3 - For balanced asset allocation, broad-based indices like the CSI A500 and the Growth Enterprise Market Index are recommended, along with defensive assets suitable for long-term holdings [9]