Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the mixed signals from economic data and the varying predictions regarding inflation and consumer demand for 2025. It emphasizes the importance of internal demand and the challenges in achieving a stable inflation environment. Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data from May shows marginal improvements in areas such as social financing growth, service consumption, and employment, yet the stock market remains indifferent [2] - The persistent weakness in CPI, which recorded a year-on-year decline of -0.1% in June, reflects a broader consensus on the need for consumption-driven economic transformation [3] Inflation Predictions - Analysts have differing views on inflation trends for 2025, with Li Xunlei predicting a continued low CPI of -0.1%, influenced by external factors like export performance and potential tariffs under a new U.S. administration [6][7] - Conversely, Guo Lei forecasts a CPI increase of 1% for 2025, supported by domestic policies aimed at boosting income and consumption [10] - Zhang Yu presents a more cautious outlook, suggesting that CPI could range from 0.4% to 0.7% depending on the economic recovery trajectory [13][14] Internal Demand Challenges - The article highlights the complex nature of internal demand, with Zhang Yu attributing low inflation to a combination of wealth erosion, economic downturn, and weakened expectations [11] - Key factors affecting CPI include core CPI, which may stabilize or recover slightly due to improvements in employment and income, but overall price pressures are expected to remain [12][27] Policy Responses - The article notes that while policies have been introduced to stimulate consumption, there is a consensus among economists that more substantial measures are needed to support vulnerable groups and enhance overall consumer capacity [36][41] - Li Xunlei and Xing Ziqiang advocate for increasing residents' overall income and improving income distribution to stimulate demand [39][40] Market Outlook - The article concludes that the path to achieving inflation and economic recovery in 2025 will depend on the effectiveness of policy measures and the resilience of consumer demand in the face of ongoing economic challenges [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that it's not the right time to over - allocate commodities, and patience is needed. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond interest rate is expected to be in the range of 1.6 - 1.8%, and Treasury bond futures should be bought on dips. The stock index has a ceiling and a floor [2][3]. - In 2025, the US economy faces "stagflation" or "recession" risks, while China is on a long "re - inflation" path. Based on these economic judgments, there are corresponding trading opportunities and asset - allocation suggestions in the second half of 2025 [8][25][37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of the First Half of 2025 - **Differentiation of Sino - US Commodities**: In the first half of 2025, US commodities first rose and then fell, while Chinese commodities were weak. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy and the trend of rising initial jobless claims and slowing new employment in the US affected commodity prices. The US had obvious inventory - replenishing imports, with imports from January to March reaching $1.2 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 23%, and retail and food service sales from January to March at $2.1 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Domestically, from March to April, the sales of commercial housing weakened, and the domestic demand was still weak. In May, China's PPI was - 3.3% and continued to decline. Exports were supported by the rush - to - export factor, but overall, under the high - interest - rate environment of the Fed, prices were under pressure [5][6]. 2. Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 2.1 The US: Risk of Economic "Soft Landing" to "Recession" - **Risk of "Stagflation" or "Recession"**: The US government's debt support for residents' income and consumption is difficult to sustain. The US government faces the pressure of reducing fiscal deficits (the fiscal deficit/GDP in 2024 - 25 was still as high as 6.8%). In April 2025, the US fiscal expenditure was $591.8 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $7.09 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%; the fiscal revenue was $850.2 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $5.06 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The annual deficit in April 2025 was $2.03 trillion, accounting for 6.8% of the US GDP in Q1 2025 [8][9]. - **Economic Slowdown**: The real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 was - 0.2% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, indicating an obvious economic slowdown. It is expected that the real GDP growth rate in 2025 will be between 1.6% - 2.3%, depending on the Fed's interest - rate cut speed and the realization of stable tax - cut policy expectations. Trump's policies have both positive and negative impacts on the US economy [19]. - **High Inflation and Interest - Rate Expectations**: Inflation may remain above the 2% target, forcing the Fed to maintain the policy interest rate above 3.5%. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the US federal funds rate will drop to 3.75%, and the first interest - rate cut in the second half of 2025 is expected to be in October [23]. 2.2 China: A Long "Re - inflation" Road - **Difficulty in PPI Recovery**: In May 2025, China's PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, and CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year. Under the background of de - globalization and the reconstruction of the Chinese real - estate model, the path for China's PPI to turn positive is long and difficult. The slow recovery of commercial housing sales and M1, as well as the decline in US imports, will lead to a slow recovery of China's PPI [25]. - **Challenges in Inflation Upturn**: China's inflation upturn faces challenges, including the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, the difficulty of the real - estate price recovery, and over - capacity in some industries. To get out of deflation, China can observe three groups of variables: the continuous expansion of base money and stock money, the continuous resilience of external demand exports, and the maintenance of an "active fiscal policy" [25][31][33]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance and strengthen the amplitude of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. It is expected that in 2025, China's policy interest rate will be cut by 30 - 40BP in two installments, and the deposit - reserve ratio will be cut by 50 - 100BP in two installments [36]. 3. Allocation Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - **US Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: It is expected that in the second half of 2025, the resilience of the US economy will decline, consumption and imports will fall, and private investment will be under pressure. The yield of US Treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with a risk of decline; the US dollar will oscillate with a risk of further weakening; gold can still be bought on dips, but trading opportunities are not obvious. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield will oscillate between 3.8% - 4.5% and is expected to decline; the US dollar is expected to oscillate between 95 - 100 and tend to decline [37][38]. - **China's Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: The active fiscal policy will support the Chinese economy, and the currency will be further loosened. It is expected that inflation will still be under pressure in the second half of 2025. There is still an expectation of a 30 - 40BP interest - rate cut in the monetary - policy end. With the support of liquidity, the A - share market will maintain active trading, and the yield of Treasury bonds will further decline. Before the policy supports the improvement of the fundamentals, commodity prices will still be suppressed by insufficient demand. The CSI 300 index is expected to be between 3400 - 4400 points; the yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds is expected to be between 1.6 - 1.8%; commodities are expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of 2025, and attention should be paid to the market opportunities in the third quarter of 2025 [37][38][39].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market and macroeconomic conditions, with a focus on the A-share market and its dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Historical Market Performance**: The A-share market has fluctuated between 2,500 and 3,500 points over the past decade without significant breakthroughs, indicating a lack of decisive upward movement despite various expert predictions [3][4][5]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The A-share market is characterized by a greater emphasis on financing rather than investment, with companies extracting more funds from the market than they return through dividends or buybacks [3][4]. 3. **Earnings Stability**: The earnings per share (EPS) in the A-share market have remained stable over the past decade, suggesting that stock price fluctuations are primarily driven by changes in valuation influenced by market risk appetite and liquidity conditions [4][5]. 4. **Liquidity Conditions**: The future performance of the market is expected to hinge on liquidity conditions, particularly in light of external uncertainties and internal demand challenges [5][10]. 5. **Predictions for 2025**: The report made several contrarian predictions, including a significant drop in the US stock market, a strong performance from the Chinese market, and a depreciation of the US dollar alongside a surge in gold and precious metals [6][10]. 6. **Real Estate Market Challenges**: The real estate sector continues to be a drag on China's economic growth, with recent declines in sales and prices, indicating that the real estate bubble is still in the process of being deflated [10][14]. 7. **Local Government Debt**: Measures have been introduced to alleviate local government debt burdens, including increasing debt limits and allocating special bond quotas to address hidden debts [10][11]. 8. **Comparative Analysis**: The report draws comparisons between the debt management strategies of China, Japan, and the US, highlighting the importance of timely public sector intervention in managing private sector debt [17][18][19][28]. 9. **Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence in China remains at historically low levels, which is exacerbated by declining real estate prices and heavy debt burdens [24][29]. 10. **Future Market Outlook**: The report suggests that without significant monetary easing from the central bank, liquidity conditions are unlikely to improve fundamentally, which could lead to continued market volatility [29][36]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, are noted as potential disruptors to global markets, but may also present buying opportunities for investors [37][38]. 2. **Market Performance Metrics**: The Chinese onshore market has shown modest returns year-to-date, indicating a stable but unremarkable performance compared to global markets [37]. 3. **Investment Strategy**: The focus for investors should be on capturing trading opportunities arising from policy expectation changes rather than relying solely on fundamental growth [37][39].

以下文章来源于CFC金属研究 ，作者王贤伟 CFC金属研究 . 本平台由金融业内人士对宏观数据、行业事件，进行专业的解读和评论，分享专业的价值观点，提出专业的投资策略，力争为普通投资者、产业人士打造 专业的投资交流平台，并无偿提供分析与研究服务。 文 | 王贤伟 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 铸造铝合金期货上市后主要关注点包括： 1）期货交割量级不确定性较大；2）供需数据难以追踪；3）废铝紧缺难以证实或证伪； 本 文将铸造铝合金主要研究指标整理汇总以供参考。 复盘2007年以来两类铝价，ADC12价格与A00关联程度较高，而ADC12弹性和波动率不及A00，整体表现为下跌周期中ADC12更为抗 跌，而上涨周期则由A00领涨；同时两类铝价基本呈现3年一个完整的涨跌幅周期，目前正处于2023年启动的周期末端。 我们根据铝行业上下游库存周期判断， 25年下半年则将逐步迈入主动去库+被动去库的组合，恰逢偏弱的价格交叉周期。 铸造铝合金现货市场参考的主流报价平台有三个，由低至高依次是江西保太、上海钢联（相差100-200）及上海有色（相差500- 700），因此最便宜交割品需要 ...

去年年底以来，⬀策层及官媒开始营造反内ⷑ的社会氛围。而⯆造业信贷的放 缓、部⮇过Ⱁ行业投资回落以及工业企业⮵润的温和修复似乎显示了再平衡已⮤ 见成效。然而，一家头部新能源车企于周一大幅降价促销，引发了市场ⲁ荡，同 时也重新引发了市场对于中国经济和再通胀⯥景的辩论。 对工业企业⮵润的进一步研究表明，根深蒂固的供需错配仍在⯆约中国的再通 胀。考虑⮽通过债ⱷ推ⲁ的强⯌激政策或已成为过去式，我们认为中国目⯥的再 平衡和再通胀需要伴随一些结构性的改革，ⴎ括社会福⮵的改善、债ⱷ重组、税 ⯆改革以及营造有⮵于增长的监管环境。上述改革皆有难度，因此我们认为实施 的步伐将是循序渐进的，再通胀短期内仍具挑战，而中长期内也无坦途。 #1. 工业企业利润修复主要由于销量以及降本增效，然而定价能力仍然羸弱。 我们可以将工业企业利润增速拆分为三项：售价（使用PPI来观察）、⮵润率（统 计局数据）以及销量（ Exhibit 1 ）。拆⮇后我们可以总结三点： 1.利润率受基数影响，夸大了整体利润增速的改善：去年三季度之后，工业企业⮵ 润同比增速现了明显的反弹，从去年9月份-27%的低谷一路上ⶍ⮽今年4月份 的3.3%。然而，去年三季度⮵润增 ...

全球折扣零售王者——Costco 于北京时间 5 月 30 日美股盘后，发布了截至月份的 2025 财年 3 季度财报。如往常一致，本季 Costco 的表现仍是波澜不惊的平稳， 具体来看： 1、同店增长依然稳健：Costco 本季度整体同店名义销售增速为 5.7% ，相比上季度显著放缓了 1.1pct。但实际 主要是受油价和汇率影响的拖累，剔除这些因素后 同店增速仍达 7.9%， 表现并不差。 价量驱动上， 同店客流量本季增长 5.2%，只是略有放缓。但受汇率等的拖累，平均客单价同比增速本季明显下滑到 0.4% ，是名义同店销售增长走弱的主要原 因。 2、海外地区增长并不差：加拿大和其他国际地区 3% 上下的名义增速明显跑输美国本土 6.6% 的同比。 海外看似疲软，但 实际也只是受油价和汇率的扰动。 剔除这部分因素 ，加拿大和其他国际地区的同店销售增速都在 8% 上下，和美国地区是基本一致的。 可见， Costco 实际在全球范围内的经营表现都相当稳健。 3、会员费收入：本季为$12.4 亿，比预期稍低了 0.1 亿。不过趋势上，同比增长 10.4%，是 4Q23 以来最高的。属于趋势向好，但没市场预期的 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250512 继续围绕转债核心稀缺资产进行抢筹配置 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《 4 月外贸数据和降准降息落地，债 券抢跑仍需消化》 2025-05-11 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250505-20250509）》 2025-05-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 上周（0505－0509）美债收益率长短端继续向上修复，期限利差维持在 大约 50bp 左右，我们认为一方面鲍威尔重审了联储对再通胀的担忧， 一方面美英之间达成贸易协议，前期我们认为广泛主要经济体将以拖待 变，目前我们认为或出现分化，部分国家将以美英协议为基准从而快速 同美达成共识，其余部分国家将不认可美英协议，并坚持在 WTO 多边 主义框架下同美对话，但无论如何 ...

◼ 降准降息落地，叠加关税战后的首份外贸数据公布，债市将如何反应？ 2025 年 5 月 9 日，海关总署公布了我国 4 月进出口数据。按美元计价， 2025 年 4 月，我国进出口总值 5352 亿美元，同比增长 4.6%。其中，出 口 3157 亿美元，同比增长 8.1%；进口 2195 亿美元，同比增长-0.2%； 贸易顺差 962 亿美元，去年同期为顺差 720 亿美元。从主要出口经济体 来看，占我国 2025 年 4 月出口金额当月值前三位的依然为东盟、美国 和欧盟，其对整体出口金额的拉动率分别为 3.98%、-2.2%和 1.22%。自 美国宣布对等关税政策后，由于外部环境的不确定性陡增，且东南亚国 家目前仍有关税豁免，因此我国出口呈现出明显的"抢出口"和转口贸 易特征，东盟对出口的拉动较 3 月上升 1.81 个百分点。同时，在 5 月 7 日召开的新闻发布会上，潘行长宣布了降准降息落地，在我们此前发布 的报告《双降之后，债券市场怎么走？》中，已经有详细的分析。在此 我们对观点进行重申，由于新闻发布会上，潘行长提及了"10 年期国债 收益率徘徊在 1.65%左右"，市场将其作为了一个"锚"，债券 ...

美联储9月议息会议决定降息50个基点，超预期降息之后，美债收益率不跌反涨，似乎逆转了此前市场对美国经济将 很快陷入衰退的预测。截至10月21日，对货币政策敏感的2年期美债收益率反弹至4.03%，创8月20日以来最高纪录， 但依旧低于去年同期的5.07%，此前其在9月24日一度降至3.49%；反映美国经济增长前景的10年期美债收益率反弹至 4.2%，创7月29日以来最高纪录，此前其在9月16日一度降至3.63%，去年同期为4.93%。 9月下旬至今，美债再次下跌，遭遇了一轮较大规模的抛售。主要有两个方面的原因导致这一轮抛售：一是美国 经济数据超预期回升，市场对美联储11月降息的预期明显降温；二是由于市场预估特朗普将赢得美国大选，其减税、 加征关税和扩大财政支出政策有可能导致通胀回升，市场开始交易"再通胀"逻辑。 展望后市，我们认为美债收益率很难长时间维持高位，原因主要来自三方面：一是高企的美元利率不利于美国财政的 可持续性；二是美国经济增长放缓是很难避免的，因私人部门消费增长已经在放缓；三是再通胀反过来会削弱经济增 长动能。 两因素导致美债短期遭遇抛售 导致近期美债收益率反弹的原因主要有两方面： 一方面是美国经 ...

中信建投证券研报认为，站在当下时间点展望未来黄金走势，提示重点把握三个时间维度。维度一，二 季度美联储降息拐点临近，2024年金价或续创新高。维度二，国际政经关系重塑过程中，金价中枢或已 系统性上移。维度三，海外新一轮货币宽松"见顶"后，周期上金价走势将再度锚定"再通胀"的深度和广 度。 ...