Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted optimism for the A-share market, predicting a significant influx of global capital and a bull market ahead [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis Framework - Li Chao emphasized a four-tier analytical framework for understanding China's economy, which includes US-China relations, social stability, structural transformation, and economic growth [3] - The framework suggests that maintaining economic growth is contingent upon addressing the first three layers, with a focus on leveraging export advantages to sustain growth [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The primary investment focus is on sectors benefiting from declining interest rates, specifically technology stocks and dividend stocks [4] - Technology stocks are expected to see increased valuations as investors become more willing to price future cash flows favorably in a low-interest environment [4] - Dividend stocks are positioned as attractive alternatives in a low-yield bond market, providing stability and potential for value re-evaluation [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Li Chao expressed a positive outlook for the capital market in 2026, driven by liquidity and structural opportunities, urging investors to adopt an optimistic stance [5]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。浙商证券首席经 济学家、研究所联席所长李超团队获得宏观经济第一名。 "直挂云帆济沧海"，现场，李超用这句充满气势的表述，为2026年中国经济与资本市场定下乐观基调。 李超结合其首创的四层次分析框架，从宏观经济肌理、增长动力到市场机遇进行了系统解读，为投资者 勾勒出"十五五"开局之年的发展蓝图。 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 在他看来，市场的核心驱动力源自利率下行，2025年以来市场信心的持续提升，为流动性向资本市场的 传导扫清了障碍。随着2026年信心修复趋势的延续，利率下行的估值驱动效应将充分显现。 这一逻辑与国际市场经验高度契合。美国1984-2020年长达35年的利率下行周期中，股债双牛成为常 态，即便在经济复苏脆弱阶段，宽松货币环境仍支撑股市走高；日本2013-2019年实施大规模QE政策 后，也实现了利率下行背景下的股债双牛。中国当前的利率环境与信心修复节奏，正为复制这一逻辑创 造条件。 投资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market's interest rate curve widened to 43.95BP last week due to the stable funding situation and volatile market sentiment. Short - term interest rates remained resilient, while long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates fluctuated significantly. The market may experience a repair trend around key events in December. Although short - term fluctuations are inevitable, the expectation of "loose money" is strong, which is expected to create a window for interest rate decline. It is recommended to adopt a left - hand layout strategy, prioritize 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds and policy financial bonds in early December, and gradually extend the duration as the policy signal becomes clear, with the overall duration of the portfolio controlled within 5 - 7 years [3][90][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - In November 2025, the net MLF injection was 100 billion yuan, and the outstanding scale reached 7.15 trillion yuan, approaching the historical peak [6]. - On the evening of November 26, Vanke announced that it would hold a creditor's meeting to discuss the extension of "22 Vanke MTN004", and the meeting will be held on December 10 [9]. - On November 28, the China Securities Regulatory Commission drafted the "Announcement on Launching the Pilot Program of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust Funds (Draft for Comment)" and solicited public opinions. The announcement includes product definition, registration and operation management requirements, responsibilities of fund managers and professional institutions, and regulatory responsibilities [10]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Funding Rate Trends - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a total injection of 1.5118 trillion yuan and maturity of 1.676 trillion yuan, resulting in a net injection of - 164.2 billion yuan. The funding situation was generally loose at the beginning and middle of the week, but the funding stratification intensified on Friday. As of November 28, the R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 rates changed by 3.75BP, 2.70BP, - 1.76BP, and 2.60BP respectively compared to November 21 [11][13][15]. 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, the CD issuance scale last week was 559.55 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 242.49 billion yuan. The issuance scale of urban commercial banks was the largest, with a net financing of - 827 million yuan. The issuance rates of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, urban commercial banks, and rural commercial banks for 3 - month and 1 - year CDs changed to varying degrees compared to the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of CDs with a term of less than 3 months declined, while those with a term of more than 3 months increased [20][23][31]. 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - The supply of interest - rate bonds increased last week, mainly due to the growth of local government bond supply. The actual issuance of interest - rate bonds was 716.069 billion yuan, with a net financing of 490.648 billion yuan. From January to November, the financing of local government bonds and treasury bonds was approaching the end. The cumulative net financing of various treasury bonds and local government bonds in 2025 was about 6.23 trillion yuan and 7.12 trillion yuan respectively, showing an obvious increase compared to the average from 2021 to 2024. As of last week, the issuance of special refinancing bonds had reached 2.24 trillion yuan, mainly in long - term and ultra - long - term maturities [34][38][40]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The funding situation was relatively stable at the end of the month. Short - term interest rates were stable, while medium - and long - term interest rates fluctuated significantly during the week and slightly recovered on Friday. The spreads between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds and national development bonds were relatively stable. The term spread of 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds widened to 43.95BP, and the variety spreads of 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds also widened [46][53][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The scale of leveraged trading was generally stable last week and declined on Friday due to approaching the end of the month. In terms of the cash bond market trading volume, state - owned banks significantly increased their net purchases of treasury bonds with a term of less than 5 years and also increased their purchases of 5 - 10 - year treasury bonds. Rural commercial banks sold treasury bonds with a term of less than 5 years throughout the week but increased their purchases of other term and variety interest - rate bonds, especially 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds. Insurance companies' willingness to hold treasury bonds with a term of more than 10 years increased significantly. Securities firms and funds were the main sellers, with funds mainly selling treasury bonds with a term of more than 10 years and 5 - 10 - year policy financial bonds. The leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market in October was about 118.77% [65][74][77]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 0.73% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained flat, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 1.58%, the cement price index decreased by 0.69%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 4.38%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.09%, and the BDI index increased by 12.53%. The wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.45%, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 1.40%. The settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 100.00% and increased by 1.02% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.08 [88]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The market may experience a repair trend around the Central Economic Work Conference and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting in December. The "loose money" expectation is strong, which is expected to create a window for interest rate decline. It is recommended to adopt a left - hand layout strategy, prioritize 3 - 5 - year treasury bonds and policy financial bonds in early December, and gradually extend the duration as the policy signal becomes clear, with the overall duration of the portfolio controlled within 5 - 7 years [90][91][92].

Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced a significant pullback this week, with short-term bonds supported by central bank liquidity and demand, maintaining stable yields[1] - Long-term bonds faced pressure due to policy concerns and profit-taking, but later recovered as fundamental expectations solidified and institutional buying resumed[1] - The recent actions of major banks to withdraw large-denomination certificates of deposit have raised expectations for interest rate declines, providing policy support for a potential bond market recovery[1] Group 2: Market Performance Overview - From November 22 to November 29, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.65%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.54%, and the S&P 500 gained 3.73%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 2.47 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.72%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.49%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest weekly crude oil inventory stood at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 177 contracts, while short positions increased by 1,611 contracts[3] - The gold ETF size rose to 3,361 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous week[3]

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the importance of high-quality development in China's economy for 2026, as articulated by Li Chao, the chief economist of Zheshang Securities [1] - Li Chao introduced a "Four-Level Analytical Framework" to understand China's economic policies and developments, emphasizing the need to consider multiple factors beyond mere economic growth [3] Group 1: Four-Level Analytical Framework - The first level focuses on the US-China rivalry, which is a primary consideration for decision-making [3] - The second level emphasizes social stability as the foundation for economic development [3] - The third level addresses structural transformation, which is the core path to high-quality development [3] - The fourth level pertains to maintaining reasonable economic growth under the previous three considerations [3] Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - Li Chao expressed optimism for the capital market in 2026, suggesting that liquidity will drive a potential bull market [4] - Historical global trends indicate that even during economic downturns, stock markets can experience bullish trends due to liquidity easing, which boosts asset valuations [4] - Confidence in the market has been gradually improving since 2025, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026, indicating a forthcoming bull market [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The primary investment focus should be on sectors benefiting from declining interest rates, particularly technology and dividend stocks [5] - Technology stocks are expected to see increased valuations as investors become more willing to price long-term cash flows in a low-interest environment [5] - Dividend stocks will serve as attractive alternatives when bond yields are low, providing stability and value appreciation [5] - A clear investment strategy is to allocate to dividend stocks during US-China tensions and to technology stocks during cooperation, as the dynamics of US-China relations significantly influence market risk preferences [5]

Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference and the 7th Sina Finance "Golden Unicorn" Best Analyst Awards highlighted optimistic projections for China's economy and capital markets in 2026, led by Li Chao's team from Zheshang Securities, which won first place in macroeconomic analysis [1] - Li Chao introduced a four-level analytical framework that emphasizes high-quality development as the core anchor for economic growth, addressing key variables such as US-China relations, social stability, structural transformation, and economic growth [3] - The framework indicates that 2026 will focus on structural transformation under high-quality development, with exports providing essential support for economic growth despite trade friction [3] Group 2 - Li Chao predicts a bull market in 2026 driven by declining interest rates, a trend observed globally where liquidity boosts asset valuations even during economic downturns [4] - Previous declines in interest rates in China did not lead to a bull market due to suppressed market risk appetite, but confidence has been improving since 2025, paving the way for liquidity to flow into capital markets [5] - The current interest rate environment and the trend of confidence recovery in China create conditions for replicating the historical bull market patterns seen in the US and Japan during their respective long-term interest rate declines [5] Group 3 - Investment strategies focus on two main asset types benefiting from lower interest rates: technology stocks and dividend stocks, each responding differently to risk appetite influenced by US-China relations [6] - Technology stocks are expected to see long-term valuation re-pricing due to lower discount rates on future cash flows, supported by a 9.6% year-on-year increase in high-tech manufacturing value added [6] - Dividend stocks offer relative yield advantages in a low bond yield environment, making them a stable choice for asset allocation, with significant valuation recovery potential in the A-share market [6][7] Group 4 - Li Chao's investment strategy suggests prioritizing dividend stocks during heightened US-China tensions and shifting to technology stocks when risk appetite improves, providing a practical decision-making framework for investors [7] - The outlook for 2026 is based on a systematic analysis of economic fundamentals, policy logic, and market trends, emphasizing the importance of understanding the marginal changes in key variables [8] - The overall message encourages maintaining an optimistic view of the market while being mindful of the ongoing structural transformation towards high-quality development [8]

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会重磅启幕，百位行研首席、公私募掌舵人、权威学者齐聚一堂，共寻穿越周 期的投资真谛。本次盛会汇聚了来自研究界与投资界的顶尖力量。 中国社会科学院学部委员、国家金融与发展实验室理事长、第一创业债券研究院副理事长李扬出席本次 大会并发表演讲。 李扬表示，资产管理与并购重组成为资本市场发展的关键抓手。理财市场规模预计2025年突破32万亿 元，投资者对权益类、混合类理财产品的需求上升。 李扬介绍说，今年前十个月，社会融资结构的变化尤为突出。数据显示，人民币存款余额325.55万亿 元，贷款余额270.61万亿元，存款较贷款多增8.35万亿元，其中住户存款多增10.65万亿元，资金 "脱媒" 现象已持续3年。货币供给层面，M2持续增长且 M1 增速更快，货币流动性改善；金融部门杠杆率方 面，2025年初资产方与负债方杠杆率差距缩小，资金呈现从银行系统外流的趋势，为资本市场发展营造 了良好环境。 利率下行成为我国金融运行的重要常态。自2015年起，我国利率水平开启下降 ...

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 李扬表示，利率下行带来多重影响，既降低了实体经济财务成本，也使商业银行净息差收窄至1.42% 的 历史低位，倒逼金融机构转型。 李扬介绍说，今年前十个月，社会融资结构的变化尤为突出。数据显示，人民币存款余额325.55万亿 元，贷款余额270.61万亿元，存款较贷款多增8.35万亿元，其中住户存款多增10.65万亿元，资金 "脱媒" 现象已持续3年。货币供给层面，M2持续增长且 M1 增速更快，货币流动性改善；金融部门杠杆率方 面，2025年初资产方与负债方杠杆率差距缩小，资金呈现从银行系统外流的趋势，为资本市场发展营造 了良好环境。 利率下行成为我国金融运行的重要常态。自2015年起，我国利率水平开启下降通道，10年期和30年期国 债收益率持续走低。2025年11月24日数据显示，中债国债10年期收益率为 1.8210%，30年期为 2.1586%；9 月新发放贷款加权平均利率降至 3.24%，同业拆借、质押式回购等货币市场利率也同步下 行。存款准备金率的持续下调进一步助推利率走低，而全球范围内，美国、日本、欧元区也长期处于超 低利率甚至负利率状态。究其原因 ...

利率下行成为我国金融运行的重要常态。自2015年起，我国利率水平开启下降通道，10年期和30年期国 债收益率持续走低。2025年11月24日数据显示，中债国债10年期收益率为 1.8210%，30年期为 2.1586%；9 月新发放贷款加权平均利率降至 3.24%，同业拆借、质押式回购等货币市场利率也同步下 行。存款准备金率的持续下调进一步助推利率走低，而全球范围内，美国、日本、欧元区也长期处于超 低利率甚至负利率状态。究其原因，全球潜在增长率下降、实体经济金融化以及货币政策范式变化等因 素共同推动了利率下行趋势。 利率下行带来多重影响，既降低了实体经济财务成本，也使商业银行净息差收窄至1.42% 的历史低位， 倒逼金融机构转型。在此背景下，资本市场发展被提上重要日程。我国金融结构长期存在资本市场不发 达、直接融资占比低的问题，"钱多本少" 成为突出痛点，而发展资本市场也成为 "十五五" 金融改革的 重点。 中国社会科学院学部委员、国家金融与发展实验室理事长、第一创业债券研究院副理事长李扬出席本次 大会并发表演讲。 李扬表示，利率下行成为我国金融运行的重要常态。究其原因，全球潜在增长率下降、实体经济金融化 以 ...

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 资产管理与并购重组成为资本市场发展的关键抓手。理财市场规模预计 2025 年突破 32 万亿元，投资者 对权益类、混合类理财产品的需求上升；并购重组则成为存量经济时代的重要调整手段，"并购六条" 的出台放宽了并购标的条件、简化了审核流程，为企业跨界并购、技术获取和上市路径拓宽提供了支 持，助力资本市场释放更大活力。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 李扬指出，当前中国金融结构正发生积极变化，社会融资结构调整、利率持续下行成为显著特征，这也 为资本市场发展带来了全新机遇。 今年前十个月，社会融资结构的变化尤为突出。数据显示，人民币存款余额 325.55 万亿元，贷款余额 270.61 万亿元，存款较贷款多增 8.35 万亿元，其中住户存款多增 10.65 万亿元，资金 "脱媒" 现象已持 续 3 年。货币供给层面，M2 持续增长且 M1 增速更快，货币流动性改善；金融部门杠杆率方面，2025 年初资产方与负债方杠杆率差距缩小，资金呈现从银行系统外流的趋势，为资本市场发展营造了良好环 境。 利率 ...