Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant upcoming events and economic indicators, including the release of manufacturing PMI data for China and the US, changes in trading regulations for silver and gold futures, and notable corporate developments such as the leadership transition at Berkshire Hathaway and the IPOs of several companies in Hong Kong [4][6][12][16][17]. Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI for December is expected to be released on December 31, with a previous reading of 49.2 indicating contraction. Analysts anticipate a slight recovery due to policy support, focusing on new order indices and performance across different enterprise sizes [6]. - The US will release the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December on January 2, along with data on initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 [7]. Corporate Events - Warren Buffett officially steps down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, with Greg Abel taking over the role starting January 1, 2026 [12]. - Wall Street anticipates the announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair by President Trump in the first week of January [10]. - Wall Street and various global markets will observe a holiday break from January 1 to January 4, 2026 [13][14]. Price Adjustments in Industries - A price increase trend is noted in the paper and chemical industries, with companies like Jilin Chemical Fiber and Hunan Youneng announcing significant price hikes for their products starting January 1, 2026 [25][26][27][28][29][30][31]. Regulatory Changes - The National Investment Silver LOF has tightened its subscription limits, reducing the A-class investment cap back to 100 yuan and suspending C-class subscriptions effective December 29 [18][19]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures to 15% and modified margin requirements effective December 30 [20]. Legislative Developments - The "Fujian Province Promotion of Cross-Strait Standard Commonality Regulations" will take effect on January 1, 2026, marking a significant legislative move aimed at enhancing standards between the two regions [32].

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) for December 2025 decreased by 3.6 points to 49.1, which is higher than the levels in December 2022 and 2023 but lower than the levels in other years since 2014 [1][4][7]. Summary by Sections Overall EPMI Performance - The EPMI's absolute level of 49.1 is the third lowest since data collection began in 2014, indicating a relative decline compared to historical averages [7][8]. - Among seven major sub-industries, three are above the expansion threshold of 50, while four are below, consistent with November's performance [4][8]. Key Sub-Indicators - Production volume, product orders, and export orders fell by 3.5, 5.4, and 3.0 points respectively in December [9]. - The demand decline was faster than production, leading to a significant increase in the production-to-order ratio, which reached 4.8 in December, compared to average values from 2021 to 2025 [9][10]. - The sales price index rose by 0.2 points, with notable increases in the new energy and new energy vehicle sectors, which saw price increases of 3.6 and 1.8 points respectively [9][11]. - The difficulty of obtaining loans increased by 2.9 points, indicating a slightly tighter credit environment for emerging industries compared to November [9]. Sector Performance - The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors maintained high levels of prosperity, with biotechnology seeing a 2.7-point increase in its prosperity index in December [14]. - The new energy and new energy vehicle sectors experienced a decline in prosperity compared to October, but remained among the top three sectors [14]. - Other sectors such as high-end equipment, new materials, and energy conservation and environmental protection are in a contraction phase [14][15]. Future Outlook - The EPMI is expected to continue reflecting seasonal trends, with a slight decline anticipated in the manufacturing PMI for December, as historical data shows a tendency for decreases during this period [18]. - The overall economic environment remains subdued, with nominal growth stabilizing due to supply-side policies, while actual growth remains to be validated in the context of investment recovery [21].

Report Summary Core View - There are both positive and negative factors in the bond market. Positive factors include a loose capital market despite the contraction of the manufacturing PMI, and rumors of "dual cuts" in the political situation boosting sentiment, leading to a decline in yields and an overall rise in futures. Negative factors are that the central bank's bond - buying scale is lower than expected, causing yields to rise and futures to fall, as well as banks selling bonds to realize profits and bond funds facing redemption pressure, resulting in consecutive increases in yields and falling futures. The trading advice is to pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying intensity and short - term liquidity and keep positions flexible [2] Specific Data and Indicators Yield and Interest Rate - Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are presented, along with data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day terms and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [3] Term Spread - Data on treasury bond term spreads (7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y) from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are provided [4][5] Futures Position and Trading Volume - Data on the positions and trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from different time periods are shown [7][8] Basis and Spread - Data on the basis of the current - quarter contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented, as well as the inter - period spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures. Additionally, data on cross - variety spreads (TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL) are provided [9][10][14][16][18][19][20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a volatile and moderately strong trend due to raw material restocking. The iron - water output may recover next week, and the steel cost is supported. Although the seasonal decline of building material demand exists, the manufacturing demand still provides support. Short - term exports continue to be high, and the steel price presents a volatile and moderately strong trend [7]. - The trading strategies include maintaining a volatile and moderately strong trend for unilateral trading, suggesting to short the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread and short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio for arbitrage, and suggesting to wait and see for options [7]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Current Situation**: This week, the iron - water output declined, and the five major steel products continued to reduce production, but the reduction speed slowed down. Rebar production increased while hot - rolled production decreased rapidly. The total steel inventory decreased at an accelerated pace, with the social inventory depletion faster than the factory inventory. Rebar demand improved month - on - month, but hot - rolled demand declined rapidly due to temperature and capital conditions [4][7]. - **Outlook**: Next week, the iron - water output may recover as blast furnace profits have been repaired. The supply of coal mines may shrink due to environmental protection, and steel mills have restocking expectations. The cost of steel is supported. The steel price shows a volatile and moderately strong trend due to raw material restocking. Follow - up attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The summary price of rebar in Shanghai was 3300 yuan (+30), and the summary price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3280 yuan (+40) [11]. - **Profits**: The flat - rate electric furnace profit in East China was - 54.26 yuan (+3), and the valley - rate electric furnace profit was +111 yuan (+3). Long - process steel maintained a small profit [4][29]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Real Estate Data**: From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first, second, and third - tier cities showed varying degrees of decline [31]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to November 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.44035 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. The growth rate continued to decline rapidly month - on - month [31][36]. - **Social Financing**: In November, the new social financing was 248.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.87%. The new RMB loans were 39 billion yuan. The government bonds and corporate bonds financing provided strong support, but the long - term investment demand of enterprises was insufficient, and the consumer and mortgage credit willingness of residents still needed to be boosted [35][36]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 226.55 million tons (- 2.65), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.9% (+0.4). The small - sample rebar production was 181.68 million tons (+2.90), and the small - sample hot - rolled coil production was 291.91 million tons (- 16.8) [4][54][60]. - **Demand**: The small - sample rebar apparent demand was 208.64 million tons (+5.55), and the small - sample hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 298.28 million tons (- 13.69). The building material demand was affected by temperature and funds, and the manufacturing demand still had support. The export of steel products continued to be high in the short term [4]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory decreased by 26.96 million tons in total, with the factory inventory decreasing by 1.26 million tons and the social inventory decreasing by 25.7 million tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.37 million tons in total, with the factory inventory decreasing by 0.61 million tons and the social inventory decreasing by 5.76 million tons [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures price of the Container Freight Index (European Line) rose slightly. The main contract EC2602 closed up 1.75%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1510.56, up 1.46 points from last week, a 0.1% increase. The Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and leading shipping companies have successively lowered the container prices, causing the previous price increase to be reversed. The traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected due to high tax rates on exports to the US. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][39] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2512 fell 1.28% (- 21.20), closing at 1630.10; EC2602 rose 1.75% (29.60), closing at 1719.80; EC2604 rose 0.71% (8.00), closing at 1128.80; EC2606 rose 2.16% (27.20), closing at 1288.30; EC2608 rose 1.59% (22.70), closing at 1453.20; EC2610 rose 1.63% (16.80), closing at 1050.30. The SCFIS index rose 0.1% (1.46), closing at 1510.56. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract showed a divergence this week [9][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - China's re - implementation of export license management for steel after 16 years aims to strengthen monitoring, statistics and analysis of steel product exports and track product quality. The EU's FSR investigations on Chinese enterprises are opposed by China. The full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 expanded the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to over 6600 tariff items. The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on fuel - powered vehicles" requirement to a 90% emission reduction. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time. The Fed's Williams said that the US unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025, and inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027 [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week. The export container freight index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, while European - line shipping capacity decreased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [24][27][31] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, the Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and the traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [39][40]

2025 年 12 月 17 日 锌：内外盘共振 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 23030 | -1.71% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3095 | -1.40% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 138540 | -30038 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 15151 | -3223 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 73193 | -10109 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 232789 | -3203 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 85 | 15 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -31.61 | -122.21 | | （元/吨） | | ...

每经AI快讯，12月16日，法国12月制造业PMI初值为50.6，预期48.1；12月服务业PMI初值为50.2，预期 51.1。 ...

摘要北京时间周二（12月16日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.270附近，现货黄金开盘于4305.12美元/ 盎司，目前交投于4304.36美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于969.35元/克附近，沪金主力交投于974.24元/克 附近。 【要闻速递】 北京时间周二（12月16日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于98.270附近，现货黄金开盘于4305.12美元/盎 司，目前交投于4304.36美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于969.35元/克附近，沪金主力交投于974.24元/克附 近。 上一交易日美元指数收跌0.12%，报98.276，现货黄金收涨0.11%，报4304.30美元/盎司。在现货黄金下 跌之际，其他贵金属涨跌不一：现货白银收涨3.28%，报64.04美元/盎司；现货铂金收涨2.26%，报 1784.60美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨5.73%，至1572.50美元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 12月15日COMEX黄金库存1118.71吨，较前一交易日减少0.01吨；COMEX白银库存14138.42吨，较前一 交易日增加37.34吨。 12月15日SPDR黄金ETF持仓1051.69吨，较前一个交易日减少1 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 98.298, while spot silver opened at $64.07/oz and is currently around $63.55/oz, indicating a slight decline [1] - On December 15, the dollar index fell by 0.12% to close at 98.276, while spot silver rose by 3.28% to $64.04/oz, driven by a weaker dollar and declining US Treasury yields [1] - COMEX silver inventory increased by 37.34 tons to 14,138.42 tons on December 15, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 42.3 tons to 16,102.9 tons [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is considering a rate cut in December due to slowing employment and easing inflation risks, as indicated by various Fed officials [2] - The US delegation in Berlin is insisting on Ukraine ceding the Donbas region, with Ukraine expected to receive security guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5 [2] - The silver market experienced a strong rally after a brief decline, with the daily high reaching $64.16 and closing at $64.071, indicating bullish sentiment [3]

每经AI快讯，12月16日，日本12月制造业PMI初值49.7，前值48.7。 ...