投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着巴西大豆产量上调且收割进度快于去年，叠加中国完成美豆采购承诺后或转向更廉价的巴 西新豆，美豆期价承压回落。国内豆粕市场呈现近强远弱格局，核心在于强劲的节前备货支撑与弱预期的 远期供应压力激烈博弈。一方面，春节临近推动下游饲料企业备货需求，油厂豆粕库存连续三周下降，现 货挺价意愿坚决，支撑近月合约表现相对偏强。另一方面，市场对未来供应担忧持续。整体来看，豆粕价 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 27 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai Rubber (RU) and Synthetic Rubber (BR) are expected to run in a strong - biased manner, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong - biased [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex rubber. However, Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are positive, and December's heavy - truck sales are better than expected. Due to the increasing bullish atmosphere in the energy and chemical sector, the Shanghai Rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: strong - biased; Overall reference view: strong - biased operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of butadiene, the core raw material of domestic synthetic rubber, have tightened recently, driving up its price significantly. Butadiene accounts for over 70% of the production cost of synthetic rubber. The upward oscillation of international crude oil has supported the high price of naphtha, rigidly raising the cost and laying a foundation for the futures price. The operating rate of butadiene plants has dropped to 72%, while the operating rate of downstream rubber plants remains at a high level of 78%, strengthening the expectation of cost increase. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern provides important support. In addition, the natural rubber in Southeast Asia has entered the production - reducing season, and the price difference between Shanghai Rubber standard rubber and synthetic rubber has widened significantly, indirectly supporting the upward shift of the synthetic rubber price center. The domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a strong - biased stance on the night of last Friday, with a slight increase in prices. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong - biased trend on Monday [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕产量和出口，印尼生柴 和出口政策，欧盟相关政策 变化，国内到港和库存，替代 需求 品种：豆粕（ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in commodity prices, particularly gold and silver, since 2025, driven by macroeconomic expectations and changes in supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1][2]. - The article discusses the resurgence of private CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies, with many private funds capitalizing on opportunities in gold and silver, leading to a notable increase in the net value curves of CTA strategy products [2][3]. Group 2 - CTA strategies are defined as investment approaches that utilize futures, options, and other derivatives rather than direct investments in stocks or bonds, aiming for absolute returns regardless of market conditions [4]. - The main types of CTA strategies include subjective and quantitative approaches, with subjective strategies relying on the fund manager's experience and fundamental analysis, while quantitative strategies leverage computer models to identify price trends and arbitrage opportunities [5]. - CTA strategies can be categorized into trend-following and statistical arbitrage, with trend-following strategies capturing single-direction market movements and statistical arbitrage exploiting price discrepancies between different contracts or markets [6][10]. Group 3 - The profitability logic of CTA strategies includes capturing opportunities in both rising and falling markets, providing potential positive returns even during stock market downturns [11]. - CTA strategies exhibit low correlation with traditional assets like stocks and bonds, particularly during extreme market events, thus offering diversification benefits [12]. - The flexibility of trading and risk management in CTA strategies allows for rapid responses to market changes through leverage, stop-loss orders, and diversified positions [13]. Group 4 - Despite their advantages, CTA strategies are not without risks, including potential losses in choppy markets where trends are unclear, leading to false signals and drawdowns [14]. - The inherent leverage in futures trading can amplify losses if risk management is inadequate, particularly during extreme market events [15]. - The risk of strategy homogeneity arises when many CTAs employ similar trend models, potentially leading to collective market movements that can adversely affect performance [16]. Group 5 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the sources of returns from CTA strategies, which thrive on identifiable trends or arbitrage opportunities, and the need to consider strategy types and risk management before investing [19]. - CTA strategies are particularly suitable for high-net-worth individuals or institutions seeking diversified asset allocation, investors sensitive to market volatility, and those with a certain risk tolerance [20]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the article suggests that CTA strategies remain valuable due to ongoing global supply chain changes and the expansion of domestic financial derivatives, although caution is advised regarding potential market volatility post-bull market [21].

每经AI快讯，1月21日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘多数上涨，沪金涨1.57%，沪银跌0.09%，沪铜涨 0.13%，沪镍涨1.6%，沪锡涨3.68%，铁矿跌0.13%，焦煤涨1.13%，玻璃跌0.76%，原油涨0.77%。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic commodity futures market showed strong recovery on January 21, with lithium carbonate and tin rising over 7% and 5% respectively, leading the gains [1] - The comprehensive China Securities commodity futures price index closed at 1685.53 points, up 10.20 points or 0.61% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities commodity futures index closed at 2324.89 points, also up 14.06 points or 0.61% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures surged again on January 21, with an intraday increase of over 8% and a closing rise of over 7% [2] - The price volatility of lithium carbonate is attributed to low short-term recovery probabilities from the Ningde Times mine and increased short-term demand from downstream battery exports [2] - The China Battery Industry Association warned of speculative trading distorting price signals and suggested regulatory measures to stabilize prices [2] Group 3: Gold Market - International gold prices accelerated recently, with spot gold and Shanghai gold reaching historical highs of $4888 per ounce and 1101.9 yuan per gram respectively [3] - The surge in gold prices is driven by increased distrust in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, leading to higher demand for gold [3] - Poland's central bank announced plans to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons, further supporting gold prices [3] Group 4: Chemical Sector Weakness - The chemical sector showed weakness, with multiple products like glass, caustic soda, and coke declining over 1% to 2%, with glass hitting a three-week low [4] - The glass market faces supply-demand imbalances due to weak demand from the real estate sector and expectations of increased supply before the Spring Festival [4] - Caustic soda prices hit a new low since listing, with high domestic supply and limited demand growth constraining price recovery [5]

责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，巴西1月前三周出口糖和糖蜜143.66万吨，较去年同期的131.69万吨增加11.97万吨，增幅 9.09%；日均出口量为13.06万吨。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价区间为5290~5360元/吨，整体下调 10~20元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5150~ 5190元/吨，下调20元/吨。原糖方面，假期后期价下行，市场对 于供应前景仍有担忧。国内随着春节临近，现货市场成交将驱弱，昨日伴随着盘面下行，现货价格下 调，未来成交进一步趋缓，累库持续，盘面弱势暂时难改，关注生产进度及最终估产预期。 棉花： （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周二，ICE美棉下跌0.48%，报收64.36美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降0.27%，报收14525元/吨，主力 合约持仓环比下降12927手至78.81万手，棉花3128B现货价格指数15390元/吨，较前一日下降50元/吨。 国际市场方面，近期海外宏观扰动不断 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading suggestions for each sector [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold Market** - Market Performance: On Tuesday, precious metals rose, with London gold breaking through $4,700 per ounce and London silver reaching $95 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: The US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariff - related matters is pending, and a hearing on Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook is scheduled. There were fluctuations in the Japanese bond market, the EU may freeze the US - EU trade agreement approval, and the Polish central bank plans to buy 150 tons of gold. Domestic gold ETFs had a large inflow of 1.3 tons [2]. - Trading Strategy: With the escalation of the tariff war, gold prices are steadily rising. It is recommended to go long. For silver, due to strong speculative sentiment and Trump's delay in adding tariffs, it is advised to participate with caution [2]. - **Silver Market** - Market Performance: The price of silver increased. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 83.4 tons to 13,263.4 tons, while iShares silver ETF持仓 increased by 151 tons to 16,222.5 tons [2]. - Fundamentals: Trump postponed the tariff increase on silver, and some New York inventory flowed back to London, alleviating the inventory shortage [2]. - Trading Strategy: Due to high domestic speculative sentiment, it is recommended to participate with caution [2]. Base Metals - **Aluminum** - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.58% to 23,950 yuan/ton. The domestic monthly spread was - 415 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $3,142 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate rose slightly [3]. - Trading Strategy: With mixed macro - sentiment, traditional aluminum demand is weak at high prices. The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the short - term price is expected to remain in high - level oscillation [3]. - **Alumina** - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 2.27% to 2,671 yuan/ton, and the domestic monthly spread was - 54 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, inventory accumulation intensifies the short - selling atmosphere, and the cost support continues to decline. The price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production cuts in February [3]. - **Zinc and Lead** - Market Performance: On January 20, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 24,410 yuan/ton and 17,225 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The domestic monthly spreads were - 24,410 yuan/ton and - 17,225 yuan/ton respectively. Overseas 0 - 3 monthly spreads were - 41.66 and - 47.13 dollars/ton respectively. Zinc inventories in seven regions increased by 0.36 million tons, and lead inventories in five regions increased by 0.16 million tons [3][4]. - Fundamentals: For zinc, macro - sentiment pushed the price to a high level, but the fundamentals showed weak supply and demand. Domestic consumption is in the traditional off - season, and downstream demand is weak due to high prices. The supply has increased significantly, and the processing fee has jumped, but the low LME inventory provides support. For lead, domestic lead ingot inventories are accumulating, and the consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has partially dissipated. It is recommended to sell short at high prices in the short term [4]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of - 1.13%. The position decreased by 10,615 lots to 225,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds decreased by 0.48 billion yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 7 compared to last week, mainly in Sichuan. Social and warehouse inventories increased slightly this week. On the demand side, the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, and production is expected to decline [4]. - Trading Strategy: With potential supply - side production cuts and demand - side production reduction expectations, the market is expected to oscillate between 8,400 - 9,200 yuan/ton. It is advisable to go short lightly at high prices [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 160,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.99%. The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate increased by $20 to $2,060 per ton, and the SMM lithium carbonate price increased by 1,500 yuan to 152,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production was 22,605 tons, a week - on - week increase of 70 tons. SMM expects January supply to be 97,970 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. In January, the expected production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. The inventory is expected to remain in a tight balance in January, and the total inventory days remained at 28 days [4]. - Trading Strategy: Due to environmental and safety issues in Jiangxi's lithium resources and export rush expectations on the demand side, the price is expected to rise easily and fall hard [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 50,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of 0.39%. The position decreased by 939 lots to 43,632 lots, and the variety's settled funds decreased by 0.57 billion yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: This week, the downstream in the spot market is in a wait - and - see state. The weekly production decreased by more than 10%, and the industry inventory increased slightly. The production of silicon wafers in January remained stable, while the production of battery cells and components decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. The cancellation of the photovoltaic export tax - refund policy on the 9th may support component exports [4]. - Trading Strategy: After the "anti - monopoly" event, the market has fully priced in the negative news, and the near - month balance sheet has changed from loose to tight. Attention should be paid to the subsequent feedback of industry associations [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [5]. - Fundamentals: The steel building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 1.4% to 3.005 million tons. The demand for building materials is relatively weak year - on - year, but the supply has decreased significantly. The demand for steel plates is stable, and the export is high. Steel mills are continuously losing money, and the production increase space is limited [5][6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract. The reference range for RB05 is 3,090 - 3,150 yuan/ton [6]. - **Iron Ore** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [6]. - Fundamentals: The arrival of iron ore increased by 1.17 million tons to 28.98 million tons year - on - week, and the total shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 3.6 million tons to 22.47 million tons. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral, and the port and steel mill inventories are at the lowest level in the same period of history [6]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I05 is 775 - 805 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading night [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons week - on - week. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and the first round of price increases has been proposed. The supply at the port is high, and the overall inventory level is low. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot [6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract. The reference range for JM05 is 1,090 - 1,130 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean** - Market Performance: The overnight CBOT soybean price slightly decreased [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term is loose, and the long - term South American supply is expected to be large. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are marginally improving. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are in the process of finding a bottom. The domestic far - month contracts are suppressed by the large South American supply expectation, and the near - month contracts depend on the game between the reserve release volume and customs clearance [7]. - **Corn** - Market Performance: The corn futures price declined, while the spot price in the corn - producing area continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has exceeded half, and the selling pressure is not large. The inventories of north - south ports, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are lower than in previous years. The enthusiasm of northeast deep - processing enterprises to build inventories is high, but the policy - based corn auction has cooled down. The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [7]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a range. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - **Edible Oils** - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil futures price rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, it is in the weak seasonal production - reduction period. On the demand side, exports improved month - on - month. The overall situation is that the near - term is loose, and the long - term is in a weak seasonal production - reduction period [7]. - Trading Strategy: Edible oils are expected to oscillate strongly. In the medium term, attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Sugar** - Market Performance: The SR05 contract closed at 5,188 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis of Nanning spot - SR05 contract was 62 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar after tax was 407 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: The international raw sugar price dropped significantly due to pressure from Indian production. The pressure from India will last until February. Domestically, the overall production and sales progress is slow this year, and the spot pressure in the future market is greater. SR05 is priced by imports and domestic production, and both are under pressure [8]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton** - Market Performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price oscillated and declined, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, India's clothing export volume in December 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to oscillate narrowly, and the medium - term upward trend is still valid. China's cotton yarn import volume in December 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month [8]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices. The price range reference is 14,400 - 14,900 yuan/ton [8]. - **Eggs** - Market Performance: The egg futures price declined, and the egg spot price partially decreased [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of egg - laying hens in production decreased, but the de - capacity slowed down. As the egg price rose, the willingness to ship in the production area increased, the arrival volume in the sales area increased, the purchasing enthusiasm in the trading end decreased, and the inventory increased. The egg price may decline seasonally [8]. - Trading Strategy: The spot price is expected to decline seasonally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Hogs** - Market Performance: The hog futures price declined, and the hog spot price decreased [8]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume increased at the end of the month, the demand was stable in the short term, the supply pressure increased, and the impact of snowfall ended. The hog price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm changes [8]. - Trading Strategy: Supply and demand have weakened, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE** - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6,530 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis weakened. The overseas market price was stable, and the import window was closed [9]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new devices were put into operation before, and some devices reduced load or stopped production. The import window was continuously closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand decreased month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remained stable [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply and demand were weak, and the geopolitical situation was volatile. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upside space is limited by the import window. In the medium term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of the year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. - **PVC** - Market Performance: The V05 contract closed at 4,808 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.2% [10]. - Fundamentals: PVC trading was at a low - level stalemate. The upstream ex - factory price decreased and then stabilized. The supply was at a high level, and the demand of downstream factories decreased seasonally. The real - estate market weakened in November, and the social inventory accumulated at a high level [10]. - Trading Strategy: With supply increasing and demand weakening, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage or adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **PTA** - Market Performance: The PX CFR China price was $888 per ton, equivalent to 7,206 yuan/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5,015 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 63 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: For PX, multiple refineries increased their loads, and the PX load decreased slightly. Overseas, South Korean and Vietnamese devices plan to increase loads, and the import supply will increase. The gasoline cracking profit weakened, and the blending - oil demand was in the off - season. For PTA, the supply was at a high level, and some factories had maintenance in January. The polyester factory's load decreased, the product profit was compressed, and the downstream entered the off - season [10]. - Trading Strategy: PX's strong expectations support the price, but it may face callback pressure in the short term due to terminal demand. The medium - term long - allocation view remains unchanged. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to increase the processing fee in the 05 contract [10]. - **Methanol** - Market Performance: Affected by geopolitical factors, methanol first rose sharply and then oscillated and adjusted. As of January 20, the 05 contract closed at 2,206 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic methanol plant operating load remained above 90%, and the operating load in the northwest region was about 97%. The coal - to - methanol enterprises have few new device maintenance plans, and the overall production is likely to remain

期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内 1 月油厂大豆压榨量环比降低，叠加春节备货需求，豆粕库存连续三周下降至 94.80 万吨， 沿海库存降 8.80%。尽管现货挺价，但巴西丰产及加速收割强化远期供应宽松预期。豆粕节前受备货需求 支撑库存去化，但大豆供应充裕下，油厂豆粕库存存在修复预期，短期豆类期价整体仍承压运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） < END > 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed mostly lower during the night session on January 19, with the black series leading the declines [1] - Coking coal fell by 2.48%, while non-ferrous building materials showed mixed results, with glass dropping by 2.39% [1] - Most chemical products declined, with butadiene rubber down by 2.29%, and all energy products fell, including LPG which decreased by 1.14% [1] - Most oilseeds and oils also saw declines, with soybean meal down by 0.99%, and all agricultural products fell, including cotton which dropped by 0.69% [1]