商品期货开盘，焦煤主力合约涨超4%，沪锡、甲醇涨超1%。多晶硅、碳酸锂、豆粕、纯碱、豆二、生 猪、氧化铝、工业硅、菜籽粕、纸浆跌超1%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and intraday views being oscillating and strong, and medium - term views being oscillating [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.30% to 15075 yuan/ton [5] - **Core Logic**: After the previous bearish expectations were gradually digested, the Shanghai rubber futures price entered an oscillating recovery trend. The expected reduction in domestic natural rubber production areas due to the typhoon boosted the rubber price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.46% to 12080 yuan/ton [7] - **Core Logic**: After the rubber price callback digested bearish factors, combined with the stabilization and rebound of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices, the Shanghai rubber futures continued the upward trend. It is expected that on Wednesday, the 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and strong trend [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the thermal coal market is expected to maintain a relatively strong performance in the near term. The positive fundamentals and news during the peak season have created a synergy, driving coal prices upward. The market may gradually shift from a supply - surplus situation to a balanced supply - demand pattern while ensuring energy supply security [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - Recent strict environmental inspections in the Lvliang Zhongyang area have led to the shutdown of one coal mine on July 18 due to gangue treatment issues, and three other mines are still in a state of shutdown or production reduction due to underground production problems [4]. Demand - As of July 10, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces reached 2.148 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.551 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 95,000 tons. The demand for thermal coal during the peak season is well - supported, and the atmosphere at the mine mouth is improving [4]. Inventory - As of July 17, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.985 million tons, with a slight weekly decrease of 34,000 tons. The inventory is 1.151 million tons higher than the same period last year, reaching a five - year high, indicating sufficient coal stocks [4].

Group 1 - The majority of domestic commodity futures contracts have risen, with the main contract for aluminum oxide hitting the daily limit, reported at 3405 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.99% [1] - The main contract for coking coal rose over 7%, while the main contract for coking coal increased by over 5% [1] - The main contract for glass rose over 7%, and the main contract for soda ash increased by over 6% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy changes. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific fundamentals and market performances [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract closed at 20475 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing with a 2.6 - ton increase in weekly operating capacity, while demand is weak in the traditional off - season with a 0.1% drop in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina 2509 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 0.71% from the previous trading day. The supply is stable with no change in weekly operating capacity, and demand is stable as electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 09 contract closed at 8745 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The total number of open furnaces increased by 3, with an overall open - furnace rate of 29.75%. Social inventory decreased slightly last week. The price is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the opening of furnaces in Xinjiang and the price trend of polysilicon [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main LC2509 contract closed at 67960 yuan/ton, up 2.47%. The supply in July is expected to be 81150 physical tons, a 3.92% increase month - on - month. The demand is expected to improve marginally but difficult to drive inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate and rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Polysilicon - The main 09 contract closed at 45300 yuan/ton, breaking the record high. The price increase is related to the "anti - involution" and the expectation of supply - side reform. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand in the third - quarter photovoltaic installation market is pessimistic. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the leading enterprises' shipping prices and the acceptance of downstream customers [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract closed at 3166 yuan/ton. The building material supply and demand are both weak, but the inventory pressure is small due to low production. The overall steel supply - demand is balanced. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the rebar 2601 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract closed at 797.5 yuan/ton. The iron ore supply - demand is marginally neutral, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the iron ore 2601 contract [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract closed at 938 yuan/ton. The overall supply - demand is still relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to chase long the coking coal 2601 contract [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean rose, driven by US soybean oil. The supply is loose both in the near - term and long - term, and the demand depends on tariff policies. The domestic soybean price follows the international cost side. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather in the production area and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The corn 2509 contract rebounded from the bottom. The annual supply - demand is tightening marginally, but the price is affected by substitutes and import grain auctions. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5825 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [4]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated upward. The international cotton export sales decreased, while the domestic cotton price is affected by inventory changes in Xinjiang. It is recommended to buy on dips and use a range - trading strategy [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil price continued to rise overnight. The supply in the production area is weakening marginally, and the demand has support. It is expected to be strong in the short - term and tight annually [4]. - **Egg**: The egg 2508 contract fluctuated narrowly. The supply is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate due to cost support [4]. - **Live Pig**: The live pig 2509 contract opened low and closed high. The consumption is seasonally weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4]. - **Apple**: The main contract closed at 7835 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The new - season early - maturing apple price has increased, but the current consumption is light. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The V09 contract closed at 4956 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [6]. - **PTA**: The PX CFR China price is 833 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4730 yuan/ton. The PX supply - demand is in a de - stocking state, and the PTA supply - demand is tending to be loose. It is recommended to over - allocate PX and look for positive arbitrage opportunities in PTA in the short - term [6]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract closed at 1093 yuan/ton, up 2%. The supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, and the inventory is decreasing. The valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see and track the implementation of production - cut policies [6]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 4437 yuan/ton. The supply is at a medium - high level, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short at high prices [7]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price rose due to production reduction in Iraq and an unexpected decline in EIA crude oil inventory. The long - term supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract closed at 1226 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating at a high level. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.4% today [1][2] - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fell by - 0.13%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The Nanhua Black Index had the largest increase of 1.23%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the smallest increase of 0.03% [1][2] - Among the theme indices, only the Energy Index fell by - 0.14%, while the rest of the theme indices rose. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.54%, and the Petrochemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.12% [1][2] - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the plywood index had the largest increase of 4.14%, and the fiberboard index had the largest decrease of - 1.36% [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Performance - Sector Indices: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fell - 0.13%, Nanhua Black Index rose 1.23%, Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose 0.03% [1][2] - Theme Indices: Energy Index fell - 0.14%, Black Raw Materials Index rose 1.54%, Petrochemical Index rose 0.12% [1][2] - Single - Variety Indices: Plywood rose 4.14%, Fiberboard fell - 1.36% [1][2] Industry Chain and Variety Performance - Energy and Chemical Sector: Synthetic ammonia rose 2.06%, crude oil fell - 0.49%, fuel oil fell - 0.59% [2] - Black Sector: There is a black sector part - variety industry chain schematic diagram, but specific variety performance details are not fully presented [8] - Agricultural Products Sector: Palm oil rose 0.85%, rapeseed oil fell - 0.32%, rapeseed rose 0.06%, Zhangxuanxiang rose 2.49%, live pigs rose 0.36% [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of various commodity futures, with significant gains in polysilicon, European shipping, cotton, and iron ore, all rising over 1% [1] - In contrast, there were notable declines in several commodities, including caustic soda, which fell over 2%, and live pigs, aluminum oxide, silicon iron, coking coal, soda ash, coke, liquefied gas, glass, and methanol, all dropping more than 1.5% [1]

国内 商品期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一，沪金跌0.03%，沪银涨0.12%，铁矿涨0.26%，螺纹跌0.19%，玻璃跌 逾1%， 原油跌0.38%，纯碱跌1.06%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: The near - end TA start - up increased slightly, polyester load declined further, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis of mainstream suppliers decreased, and spot processing fees weakened significantly. PX domestic start - up remained stable, with some overseas maintenance, PXN weakened slightly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained stable. Entering the inventory accumulation stage, the slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. Since the spot processing fee has been compressed to an extremely low level, there may be a marginal reduction in supply. Given the relatively low absolute inventory, attention should be paid to the opportunity of increasing processing fees at low prices [2]. - **MEG**: The near - end domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to increase month - on - month, Saudi Arabian devices were restarting, and port inventory would accumulate early next week. Downstream stocking levels increased, and the basis remained stable. With no reduction in Iranian and ethane supplies and the increase in domestic production start - up, it is gradually entering the inventory accumulation stage. With low actual inventory and relatively high valuation, it is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts [8]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - end supply from Ningbo Dafafa decreased, and the start - up dropped to 92.3%. Production and sales remained stable month - on - month, and inventory was basically maintained. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn continued to decline, with raw material inventory decreasing and finished product inventory increasing, and benefits remained low. With acceptable benefits and inventory pressure, there is no obvious reduction or increase in supply. With weak domestic demand and high export growth, processing fees are expected to be range - bound [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [8]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 8 - 14, 2025, crude oil decreased by 1.2, PX CFR increased by 13, PTA internal - market spot increased by 13, and the PTA processing fee decreased by 81. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions for 2509 increased by 6 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end TA start - up increased slightly, polyester load declined, inventory accumulated, and the basis decreased [2]. MEG - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the MEG internal - market price increased by 14, and the basis for 09 increased by 67 [8]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to increase, Saudi Arabian devices were restarting, and port inventory would accumulate [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the daily change in spot price was - 15, and the market basis for 08 was around + 0 [8]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Near - end supply from Ningbo Dafafa decreased, and the start - up dropped to 92.3%. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn continued to decline [8]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the daily change in Thai glue was - 5, and the weekly change in US - dollar Thai standard was 40 [8]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded [8]. Aromatic Hydrocarbons (Benzene - related Products) - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased by 8, and the domestic profit of styrene changed from 170 to 221 [13]. - **Production and Market Situation**: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS showed different trends, and the production profits of each product also fluctuated [14].

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 纪元菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月14日 | 7月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9000 | 8820 | J20 | 1.69% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 302 | 435 | -130 | -29.89% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | a300 | 9200 | 100 | 1.09% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | -185 | -15 | -180 | -1200.00% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8350 | 8300 | 50 | 0.60% | | | 基差(新疆) | 455 | ୧୫5 | -230 | -33.58% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 7月14日 | 7月11日 | 消歧失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2508-2509 | -140 | 35 ...