Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed generally higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the stage high on October 8, 2024. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly for two consecutive days. The pricing stability has a restorative effect on corporate profits and investment confidence. The market's focus has shifted to the semi-annual reports of listed companies, and the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all positive. Some listed companies' improved fundamentals support the stock market, but be vigilant against the drag on index performance from the profit decline of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. A-shares with reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. The S&P's attitude towards China's sovereign credit rating also boosts market confidence. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) latest price is 4131.2, up 21.0; IF sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 4144.4, up 21.4. IH main contract (2509) latest price is 2809.6, up 17.0; IH sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 2809.8, up 17.4. IC main contract (2509) latest price is 6342.6, up 33.0; IC sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6409.2, up 33.0. IM main contract (2509) latest price is 6883.6, up 21.2; IM sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6954.2, up 21.2 [2] - IF-IH current month contract spread is 1334.6, up 7.0; IC-IF current month contract spread is 2264.8, up 12.6. IM-IC current month contract spread is 545.0, down 12.4; IC-IH current month contract spread is 3599.4, up 19.6. IM-IF current month contract spread is 2809.8, up 0.2; IM-IH current month contract spread is 4144.4, up 7.2 [2] - IF current quarter - current month is -42.4, down 1.6; IF next quarter - current month is -74.8, down 3.4. IH current quarter - current month is 1.6, down 1.0; IH next quarter - current month is 1.2, down 0.8. IC current quarter - current month is -219.2, up 4.4; IC next quarter - current month is -357.6, up 4.6. IM current quarter - current month is -260.0, up 1.8; IM next quarter - current month is -442.2, up 4.6 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is -26,597.00, up 1315.0; IH top 20 net position is -17,108.00, up 424.0. IC top 20 net position is -15,559.00, up 1313.0; IM top 20 net position is -52,263.00, down 494.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is 4143.83, up 21.3; IF main contract basis is -12.6, up 5.1. SSE 50 is 2807.01, up 17.1; IH main contract basis is 2.6, up 3.1. CSI 500 is 6418.16, up 26.4; IC main contract basis is -75.6, up 17.4. CSI 1000 A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 6963.61, up 19.7; IM main contract basis is +552.93, up 166.82. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 20,261.98, up 12.7 [2] - Northbound trading total (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 2270.00, up 261.04; Reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) is -1607.0, up 1146.0 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) is +76.53 yesterday, -376.99 today. MLF data not provided. Rising stock ratio (daily, %) is 38.45, down 38.81. Shibor (daily, %) is 1.315, unchanged [2] - IO at-the-money call option closing price (2508) is 15.00, up 3.00; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) is 10.14, down 1.31. IO at-the-money put option closing price (2508) is 22.80, down 19.60; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) is 10.14, down 1.31 [2] - CSI 300 index 20-day volatility (%) is 9.80, up 0.08; Volume PCR (%) is 57.21, up 1.86. Position PCR (%) is 76.85, up 1.74 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares score is 5.10, down 2.30; Technical aspect score is 3.80, down 3.90. Capital aspect score is 6.40, down 0.70 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, up 7.3%; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, down 1.6%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, up 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%, rising for two consecutive months [2] - In July, CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month from a 0.1% decline last month, and was flat year-on-year. Core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to last month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the same as last month [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Pending: China's July financial data. On August 12 at 20:30, the US July CPI and core CPI. On August 14 at 20:30, the US July PPI and core PPI. On August 15 at 10:00, China's July industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, and real estate data [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Affected by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral trading, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract. In the arbitrage trading, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of TF2509. In the hedging trading, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a - 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 408.34 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.74 trillion yuan (0.68%); M2 year - on - year growth is 7.30%, with a 0.20% (2.82%) month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a - 0.20% (- 0.40%) month - on - month change [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 109.41, with a 0.47 (0.43%) day - on - day change; the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 7.324, with a - 0.019 (- 0.25%) day - on - day change; SHIBOR 7 - day is 2.01, with a - 0.03 (- 1.28%) day - on - day change; DR007 is 2.12, with a - 0.21 (- 9.18%) day - on - day change; R007 is 1.94, with a 0.12 (6.52%) day - on - day change; the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3M is 1.89, with a 0.00 (0.09%) day - on - day change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.15, with a - 0.01 (0.09%) day - on - day change [8]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position - holding ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between policy - bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance situation of treasury bonds [11][12][15]. 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - Charts show the trend of Shibor interest rates, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local government bonds [24][25]. 3.4 Spread Overview - Multiple charts present the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond spreads and futures spreads (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [28][35][36]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [38][41][51]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [47][48][53]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [56][59]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [64][66][70].

大摩称，本季以来，主动基金增持最多的板块是传媒与娱乐、制药和保险，减持最多的是消费服务、耐 用消费品与服装。从个股看，腾讯(00700)、网易(09999)、恒瑞医药(01276)和药明康德(02359)获增持最 多，美团(03690)和小米(01810)减持最多。 大摩报告表示，7月外资净流入达27亿美元，高于6月的12亿美元。截至7月31日，今年以来境外被动型 资金累计流入达110亿美元，超过2024年全年70亿美元的水平，境外主动型资金累计流出达110亿美元， 也低于2024年全年。 智通财经APP获悉，大摩表示，外资基金7月加速净流入中国股市，其中被动型基金流入39亿美元，主 动型基金则流出12亿美元。被动型基金主要集中在月底入场，恰逢多项"反内卷"政策发布。 大摩表示，7月南向资金流入港股进一步提速至170亿美元，高于6月的100亿美元。今年前7个月累计净 流入达1100亿美元，超过2024年全年的1030亿美元。 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee is expected to be one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia due to the pressure from increased tariffs imposed by the US, which is impacting India's already fragile economic recovery [1][3] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Barclays predict that the Rupee's exchange rate may fall to a historical low by the end of the year, driven by weak foreign capital inflows and tariff impacts [1][3] - The Indian stock market has experienced an outflow of $11 billion due to economic slowdown, and the central bank's interest rate cuts have further weakened support for the currency [1][3] Group 2 - Barclays estimates that high tariffs could reduce India's GDP growth rate by approximately 30 basis points [3] - The market is focused on the Indian central bank's policy meeting on August 6 for clues on interest rate direction and Rupee trends, following an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut last month [3] - Despite foreign exchange reserves being near historical highs, Citigroup economists believe that uncertainty around tariffs limits the central bank's motivation to aggressively support the Rupee [3] Group 3 - The Rupee has depreciated by 1.2% last week, reaching an exchange rate of 87.5275 Rupees per US dollar, marking the largest weekly decline since December 2022 [3] - Some analysts remain optimistic about a potential trade agreement between the US and India, which could improve the situation for the Rupee [3] - Weak foreign capital inflows continue to be a headwind for the Rupee, with limited prospects for significant bond market inflows due to the central bank's indication of limited rate cut space [3][4]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China showed strong resilience and vitality in the first half of 2025, with cross-border income and expenditure reaching a historical high of 7.6 trillion USD, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [1] - There was a net inflow of 127.3 billion USD in cross-border funds, with a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 46% in the second quarter [1] - The foreign exchange reserves remained stable at 33,174 billion USD by the end of June, with the RMB accounting for 53% of cross-border receipts and payments [1] Group 2 - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has increased, with foreign holdings exceeding 600 billion USD, indicating strong international interest in the RMB bond market [3] - In the stock market, foreign net purchases of domestic stocks and funds reached 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [3] - Notably, the net increase in foreign holdings in May and June alone was 18.8 billion USD, reflecting a renewed confidence among international investors in the Chinese stock market [3] Group 3 - The stable development of the economic fundamentals has created a favorable macro environment for foreign investment, with several international investment banks upgrading China's asset ratings from neutral to overweight [4] - High-quality development of the financial market has provided a conducive policy environment for foreign investment, enhancing the convenience of foreign participation in China's financial markets [4] - China's financial market system is comprehensive and deep, with both bond and stock market capitalizations ranking second globally, offering diverse investment options for foreign investors [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant increase in foreign investment in China's stock market, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing the trend of net reductions over the past two years, particularly with a notable increase of $18.8 billion in May and June [1][2] - The stable economic fundamentals in China, with a GDP of 660.536 billion yuan and a year-on-year growth of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, are creating a favorable macro environment for foreign investments [1][2] - The stock market indices in China reached new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3605.73 points, reflecting a positive market sentiment and increased trading activity [2] Group 2 - The influx of capital into China is attributed to a global rebalancing of investments, driven by changes in global trade patterns, fiscal policy uncertainties, and currency fluctuations, prompting investors to seek opportunities in emerging markets [2] - A report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) highlights a shift in the funding landscape for A-shares, suggesting that the restructuring of the international monetary order is benefiting RMB assets [2] - The current equity risk premium for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is at historically low levels, indicating that if U.S. Treasury yields are no longer the pricing anchor, the valuation pressure on Chinese stocks will significantly ease, making them more attractive [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bond supply surplus has raised concerns, and all treasury bond futures closed lower. The strong stock market has boosted risk appetite, suppressing the bond market. The delayed expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and increased global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%. China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan (+0.95%); M2 year - on - year was 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+5.06%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% (+0.40%) [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.39, down 0.47 (-0.48%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1722, down 0.007 (-0.10%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.46, down 0.02 (-1.02%); DR007 was 1.47, down 0.02 (-1.07%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.04 (+2.35%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.55, up 0.01 (+0.45%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, up 0.00 (+0.45%) [8]. II. Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On July 22, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.89 yuan, 108.64 yuan, and 119.45 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.05%, - 0.09%, and - 0.40% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.011 yuan, - 0.047 yuan, 0.045 yuan, and - 0.047 yuan respectively [2]. III. Money Market Fundamentals - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 22, 2025, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [1]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.317%, 1.462%, 1.551%, and 1.529% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [1]. IV. Spread Overview - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report mentions the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties, but specific data is not detailed here [40]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The report analyzes the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [40][42][43]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate [45][47]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The report presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [54]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate [53][56]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The report presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [53]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate [61]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The report presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [64]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate [69][72]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The report presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [75]. 4. Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread [3]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [3].

据日本证券业协会数据，在截至6月30日的第二季度，全球投资者净买入5.02万亿日元的10年期以上日 本国债。这一规模超过了第一季度创下的3.79万亿日元的前纪录。 ...

Capital Flow - Eurozone bond market saw nearly €100 billion (approximately $116 billion) of foreign capital inflows in May [1] - This indicates a shift of funds from the US market to Eurozone assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cross-border capital flow pattern in Q1 2025 is similar to that of Q4 2023 to Q3 2024, with foreign capital continuing to net inflow while domestic capital experiences a net outflow, reaching the highest level since Q1 2021 [2][4] Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow Overview - In Q1 2025, cross-border capital continued to net outflow, amounting to $316.7 billion, with domestic capital outflow reaching $481.1 billion, the highest since Q1 2021 [4][11] - The main drivers of the domestic capital outflow include domestic investors purchasing overseas stocks and investment funds through channels like "Hong Kong Stock Connect," leading to a securities investment outflow of $164.5 billion [4][11] - Domestic direct investment outflow was $143.6 billion, reflecting a proactive "going out" strategy by Chinese enterprises [4][11] Group 2: Domestic Securities Investment - The outflow of domestic securities investment in Q1 2025 reached a historical record since 2011, totaling $164.5 billion, while foreign securities investment saw a net inflow of $121.8 billion [5][13] - The outflow included $125.1 billion from equity investments and $39.4 billion from bond investments, with the main channels being "Hong Kong Stock Connect" and Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) programs [5][13][14] - Foreign equity investment shifted from a net outflow of $85.7 billion in Q4 2024 to a significant net inflow of $121.8 billion in Q1 2025, driven by positive market expectations for Chinese technology stocks [5][14] Group 3: Domestic Direct Investment - Domestic direct investment outflow reached $143.6 billion in Q1 2025, the highest since Q1 2021, with total direct investment net outflow at $110.3 billion [6][18] - The increase in domestic direct investment outflow is attributed to the restructuring of global supply chains and the deep integration of the Chinese market with global markets [6][18] Group 4: Trade Credit - Trade credit net outflow in Q1 2025 reached $44.2 billion, the highest since Q4 2015, with domestic trade credit outflow of $18.3 billion [7][23] - The outflow was influenced by market expectations of RMB appreciation and changes in import and export settlement rates [7][23] Group 5: Monetary Gold Growth - Monetary gold increased by $38.3 billion in Q1 2025, marking a record since 2011, with the central bank accumulating a total of 11.26 million ounces of gold since November 2022 [8][29] - This increase is part of the fifth round of gold accumulation by the central bank since 2000, reflecting a strategic move in response to global economic conditions [8][29] Group 6: Capital Flow Breakdown - In Q1 2025, total capital outflow was $512.1 billion, a 58.8% increase from the previous quarter, primarily driven by increased overseas investments by domestic investors [42][43] - The capital outflow was significantly influenced by a $30.5 billion increase in overseas investments and a $78.3 billion increase in reserve assets [42][43] Group 7: Capital Inflow Breakdown - Total capital inflow in Q1 2025 was $195.4 billion, with foreign investors contributing $153.5 billion through domestic asset investments [45][46] - The inflow was supported by a $12.1 billion increase in direct investments and a $121.8 billion increase in securities investments [45][46]