Group 1 - The US dollar index has fallen over 10% this year, leading to significant increases in precious metal prices and a shift in global central bank reserves towards gold [1][2] - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding the future of the dollar, with some institutions predicting further depreciation due to monetary policy misalignment and external circulation issues, while others believe the fastest decline may be over and caution against potential rebounds [1][2] - Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen price increases exceeding 20% this year, with platinum prices rising over 50%, indicating a reallocation of global funds [2][3] Group 2 - The decline of the dollar is attributed to three main factors: relative economic advantages, monetary policy misalignment, and increasing credit risk associated with the dollar [2] - A survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) indicates that the dollar's popularity among central banks has dropped, with 70% of respondents citing US political conditions as a barrier to dollar investment, leading to a record increase in gold holdings [3] - UBS suggests that ongoing uncertainty in US policies may weaken the appeal of the "American exceptionalism," recommending investors diversify into other currencies to mitigate excessive dollar exposure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Vale is on the path to becoming the largest mining company globally [1] - The nickel market is facing an oversupply issue, yet the nickel business still holds strategic value [1] - Geopolitical tensions are impacting global GDP and commodity prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 showed a weak oscillating trend today. Despite a slight price increase, the decrease in trading volume and open interest, along with the outflow of funds, indicate that market trading is becoming lighter and short - selling power is strengthening. It is expected that the Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview and Market Review - **1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance** - The Shanghai Tin main contract 2507 showed a weak oscillating trend on June 25, 2025. The opening price was 263,200 yuan/ton, the highest was 263,800 yuan/ton, the lowest was 261,900 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 263,800 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 262,150 yuan/ton. The contract price tried to rise in the afternoon but failed to break through the resistance level of 264,000 yuan/ton and then gradually declined. The trading volume was 54,700 lots, a decrease from the previous trading day, indicating a slight decline in market trading activity. The open interest at the close was 13,100 lots [2]. - **1.2 Futures Market Data** - The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract (snm) was 263,000 yuan, with a decrease of 190 yuan and a decline rate of 0.07%. Other contracts such as the Shanghai Tin weighted (sni), Shanghai Tin 2512 (sn2512), etc., also had different price changes [6]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - **2.1 Macroeconomic Policy** - The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran came into effect, reducing market risk - aversion sentiment and improving risk preference, which provided some support for commodity prices including tin [8]. - **2.2 Tracking and Interpretation of Related Data** - **Supply Side**: Tin ore supply in production areas such as Yunnan is tightening. Some smelting enterprises are considering shutdown for maintenance or slight production cuts in June. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, and the transportation of tin mines from southern Myanmar through Thailand is blocked. It is expected that the domestic tin ore imports in June will decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons, and the short - term supply shortage of domestic tin ore is obvious, which supports the tin price [9]. - **Demand Side**: Terminal enterprises have entered the seasonal off - season. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics are growing weakly, and the photovoltaic production schedule in June is declining month - on - month. As the tin price rebounds to around 260,000 yuan/ton, the downstream purchasing willingness has significantly weakened, generally adopting a "small - batch, multi - batch" purchasing strategy, which restrains the rise of tin price [10].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends in various sectors, including liquidity, infrastructure, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and market dynamics [2]. Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for May 2025 is 49.09, up 2.20% month-on-month [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in May 2025 is -5.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The current price of London gold has decreased by 1.91% compared to last week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - In early June 2025, the average daily output of key enterprises in crude steel is 2.159 million tons, an increase of 3.25% month-on-month [4] - Price changes this week include rebar at +0.00%, cement price index at -1.21%, rubber at +0.72%, coke at +0.00%, coking coal at -3.11%, and iron ore at -2.07% [4] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tire operating rates have changed by +0.21 percentage points, -5.90 percentage points, -1.8 percentage points, and +4.24 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass have changed by -1.45% and +0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -921 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of flat glass this week is 75.34% [5] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high of 78.29%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.31 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices this week include cold-rolled steel at -0.27%, copper at -0.76%, and aluminum at -0.29%, with corresponding gross profit changes of +4.07%, -18.19%, and +4.71% [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate of domestic alumina in May has dropped to a new low for 2023 [7] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 5.56% [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 20,700 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with estimated profit at 3,146 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 4.71% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.19 [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 170 yuan/ton, while the price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 210 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [8] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [8] Export Chain - In May 2025, China's PMI new export orders are at 47.50%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) composite index this week is 1,342.46 points, up 8.00% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 79.40%, down 0.10 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.45%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being shipping at +1.06% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel and industrial metals sectors relative to the CSI 300 is 32.05% and 62.94% respectively [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently 0.50, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

美联储理事鲍曼：当前的中东冲突可能会推高大宗商品价格。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：密切关注大宗商品价格。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：正密切关注大宗商品价格。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the RB2510 contract rebounded with increased positions. The supply of rebar continued to shrink, with the weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills decreasing for three consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate dropping to 45.5%. The inventory in both steel mills and the social market continued to decline, with a total inventory reduction of 124,000 tons. The downstream demand was based on on - demand procurement, and the apparent demand declined again. However, the current tense situation in the Middle East and the sharp rise in international oil prices had an impact on commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels, and the red bars expanded. The recommended operation was intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 2,990 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the position volume was 2,164,732 lots, up 29,071 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 10,749 lots, up 22,799 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was 5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 34,766 tons, down 1,198 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 114 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (by theoretical weight) was 3,130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (by actual weight) was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The price in Guangzhou (by theoretical weight) was 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (by theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 140 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 721 yuan/wet ton, up 1 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,205 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.3314 million tons, up 1.0645 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 0.8716 million tons, down 0.0103 million tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.4273 million tons, down 0.0322 million tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 0.6262 million tons, down 0.0483 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.0757 million tons, down 0.1089 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.50%, down 2.39 percentage points. The factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8289 million tons, down 0.0197 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.7519 million tons, down 0.1043 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, down 3.13 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 86.55 million tons, up 530,000 tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 18.61 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.097 million tons, up 0.157 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 47.05 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. From January to May, the cumulative floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.2502 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%, among which the floor area under construction of residential buildings was 4.35354 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the completed area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [2].

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Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly better than the expected decrease of 0.2%[1] - The PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year, a decline from the previous value of 2.7% and worse than the expected 3.2%[1] Group 2: Core CPI Stabilization Features - Core commodity PPI rebounded by 0.3 percentage points to -1.4%, driven by improved demand and a moderation in tariff impacts[2] - The core commodity CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, supported by consumption policies and rising gold prices, which boosted jewelry prices by 40.1%[3] - Service CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5%, aided by increased holiday days in May, enhancing service demand[4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Continued policy support and recovery in domestic demand are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but supply-side constraints remain a concern[5] - The ongoing "trade-in" policy may provide significant support to core commodity CPI and PPI, while abundant supply of bulk commodities and food could exert downward pressure on prices[5]