投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-06 弱美元与地缘政治风险发酵，铂钯走势 偏强 2026年1⽉5⽇GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为583.95元/克，涨幅6.48%；钯 主⼒合约收盘价为452.85元/克，涨幅8.88%。 铂观点：美联储独立性+地缘政治风险发酵，铂金走势偏强 主要逻辑：特朗普近期表示，有可能解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔，并在1 月公布下一任美联储主席人选。此外，1月3日凌晨，美军对委内瑞拉首都 加拉加斯等地发动突袭，抓捕总统马杜罗夫妇并带至美国纽约，地缘政治 风险再度发酵，或进一步加剧价格波动。至1月5日收盘，广期所铂金主力 合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含税）溢价22.2元/克，内外价差大幅收 敛，内外正套建议暂时获利了结。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂 族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方 面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳 定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+软 着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价 ...

展望2026年，业内普遍认为黄金仍有上涨空间，但交易难度加大。有分析指出，后MMT时代G7主权信 用货币集体走弱、美美元体系在科技军事等领域渐进弱化、央行外储结构优化及国内外机构家庭部门相 对欠配等长期逻辑，支撑黄金长牛趋势，长期来看仍是优质战略性配置资产。 摘要今日周一(1月5日)亚盘时段，黄金T+D目前交投于988.68元附近，截至发稿，黄金T+D暂报988.46 元/克，涨幅1.45%，最高触及993.76元/克，最低下探986.01元/克。目前来看，黄金T+D短线偏向看涨走 势。 从交易维度看，2026年黄金波动率或进一步抬升。因黄金无估值锚定，价格波动主要受资金流向和供需 结构影响，风险资金(如美股、虚拟货币)流动可能加剧波动，白银等贵金属波动也会产生联动效应。此 外，市场对2026年美债、美元汇率走势存在分歧，美联储内部降息路径争议也可能影响黄金市场节奏。 今日周一(1月5日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d目前交投于988.68元附近，截至发稿，黄金t+d暂报988.46元/克， 涨幅1.45%，最高触及993.76元/克，最低下探986.01元/克。目前来看，黄金t+d短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period marks a significant historical juncture for China's financial system, emphasizing the construction of a financial powerhouse and the development of high-quality financial infrastructure to support the real economy [1][20]. Group 1: Digital Currency and Cross-Border Payment - Over 90% of central banks globally have been exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in the past decade, with China leading the way since 2014 [6][25]. - The digital yuan pilot has expanded to cover 26 regions across 17 provinces, with cumulative transaction amounts reaching 7.3 trillion yuan by July 2024 and projected to reach 14.2 trillion yuan by September 2025 [6][25]. - The "Digital Currency Bridge" (m-Bridge) is highlighted as a significant platform for cross-border applications of the digital yuan, showcasing China's advancements in this area [6][26]. Group 2: RMB Internationalization - The internationalization of the RMB has been relatively moderate during the "14th Five-Year Plan," but the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to bring more favorable changes due to external and internal conditions [1][21]. - A weakening US dollar may create a temporary trend that encourages global funds to diversify into assets including the RMB, thereby increasing demand for related currencies [21][33]. - The attractiveness of RMB assets has risen significantly in sectors like technology, new energy, and manufacturing, which is crucial for the internationalization of the RMB [21][33]. Group 3: Financial Infrastructure and Policy Support - China is building its financial infrastructure, such as the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), to support the internationalization of the RMB and national strategies [7][26]. - The country's proactive policies, including bilateral currency swap arrangements with multiple central banks, provide foundational conditions for the overseas use of the RMB [34]. - Expanding the scenarios for RMB pricing and settlement in commodities and energy trade is expected to significantly promote RMB internationalization [34]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The digital yuan's classification as M0 and its non-interest-bearing nature may hinder commercial banks' enthusiasm for participation, necessitating adjustments in promotion mechanisms [36]. - The development of a robust domestic ecosystem for the digital yuan is essential for its successful cross-border application, as a lack of investment opportunities may deter foreign entities from using RMB for settlement [36][38]. - The internationalization of the RMB is a complex process that requires a balance between micro-level asset availability and macro-level capital flow management [37].

人民财讯1月5日电，中金指出，近期在美联储降息预期升温和国内年底结汇高峰推动下，人民币兑美元 升值加速。特朗普"大重置"下，美国货币配合财政，认为美元流动性将趋势性充裕，美元大概率处于贬 值通道。这种情况下，此前积累的待外汇资金结汇的动机可能支撑人民币。弱美元推动全球经济共振修 复，带动国内出口增速和利润改善。全球货币政策和流动性都趋于宽松，推升A港股估值。同时，全球 资金更多流向增长弹性更高的新兴市场，以寻求更高的收益。在弱美元和国内政策催化下，中金认为更 多海外资金和长线资金入市有望从资金端提振A股。从结构上看，以科技和出海为代表的"新经济"在基 本面和回报方面有望持续表现。此外，在扩内需、反内卷和海外需求拉动下，国内企业盈利或出现改 善，带动消费等内需板块补涨。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that silver possesses higher elasticity in the short term, especially as it relates to AI narratives and its dual role as a precious metal and an asset linked to AI electricity [1] - Huaxi Securities notes that high volatility in precious metals is expected to continue in the short term, with silver, platinum, and palladium facing larger adjustments due to liquidity constraints, while gold is anticipated to stabilize sooner [2] - Citic Securities emphasizes that the macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable for precious metals in the medium to long term, with expectations of a long-term bull market supported by Fed easing and a weak dollar [2] Group 2: Internet Sector - Citic Securities reports that the internet sector is expected to experience a rebound driven by AI narratives and liquidity improvements, with a focus on model iteration and performance realization as key catalysts [3] - The report highlights the importance of selecting stocks based on performance visibility and valuation for companies with lower AI correlation, particularly in stable competitive landscapes and high-growth sectors [3] Group 3: Home Appliance Sector - Citic Securities identifies that the home appliance sector has shown underperformance compared to the market, but recovery opportunities are emerging, supported by domestic demand policies and a reduction in tariff impacts [4][5] - The report suggests focusing on leading home appliance companies with scale and technological strength, particularly in areas like domestic policy support and expansion into emerging markets [4][5] Group 4: Digital Currency - Citic Securities states that the digital yuan is evolving from a cash-replacement model to a deposit currency model, enhancing banks' stability and monetary policy transmission efficiency [6] - The report anticipates that banks will need to shift focus from qualification to capability in promoting digital yuan services, capitalizing on increased penetration rates [6] Group 5: Titanium Alloys - CITIC Jiantou highlights that titanium demand is expected to grow rapidly due to its unique properties, with applications expanding in aerospace, medical, and consumer electronics [7] - The report predicts a demand growth rate of over 10% for titanium alloys in the next three years, driven by advancements in 3D printing technology [7] Group 6: AI Industry - Huatai Securities expresses optimism about the AI industry trend, focusing on investment opportunities in the domestic and international computing power supply chain [8] - The report outlines three main investment lines for 2026, emphasizing the importance of AI computing power, new productivity sectors, and core assets with long-term competitive advantages [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 5% over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The international gold price experienced a slight decline to $4,514 per ounce as of December 30, 2025, after reaching a historical high of $4,526 on December 24, 2025, but still recorded an annual increase of 65%-70%, marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [1]. - Short-term technical corrections are attributed to factors such as easing geopolitical risks, profit-taking pressures, and differing monetary policy expectations [1][2]. - In the medium to long term, factors such as the U.S. debt crisis, a weak dollar, and a rate-cutting cycle provide fundamental support for gold prices, with central banks continuing to purchase gold and increasing investment demand for gold ETFs [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The market performance of the non-ferrous metals index and the CSI 300 index showed significant fluctuations, with a notable annual increase in gold prices [1]. Short-term Factors - Geopolitical risk reduction, profit-taking at year-end, and differing expectations regarding monetary policy are influencing short-term price movements [1][2]. Medium to Long-term Factors - The ongoing U.S. debt crisis, weak dollar, and anticipated rate cuts are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. - Central banks are expected to continue their gold purchases, and investment demand for gold ETFs is likely to increase due to wealth effects [2][4]. Silver Market Dynamics - Recent volatility in silver prices, driven by its industrial properties and low domestic inventory in China, has attracted significant capital inflow, leading to price surges [3]. - The potential for a price correction in silver exists, while gold prices are expected to rise [3]. Investment Recommendations - Despite short-term risks, the long-term outlook for gold assets remains positive due to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks [4]. - Gold stocks have not seen significant price increases in line with physical gold and silver, indicating a potential for stability amidst market fluctuations [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF and the expected profit growth of Zijin Mining in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][2] - As of December 31, 2025, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 0.31% with a turnover of 3.77%, totaling 784 million yuan [1] - The index tracking the non-ferrous metal sector, the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index, includes key stocks such as Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper, which have shown significant price increases [1][2] Group 2 - Zijin Mining announced an expected net profit of approximately 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, representing an increase of about 59% to 62% compared to the previous year [1] - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring gains is projected to be around 47.5 to 48.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% to 53% [1] - The sales prices of gold, copper, and silver are expected to rise year-on-year during the reporting period, contributing to the profit growth [1]

Monetary Policy - On December 31, the People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion CNY at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 502.8 billion CNY after accounting for 26 billion CNY maturing reverse repos [1] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market opened slightly higher on December 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.22% [2] - The precious metals sector showed overall gains, while sectors such as agriculture, retail, and oil and petrochemicals underperformed [2] Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a rise on December 31, with active trading in industrial metals, copper, cobalt, and nickel stocks. Jiangxi Copper reached its daily limit, with other stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Zijin Mining also experiencing gains [3][6] Individual Stock Highlights - Jiangxi Copper's stock reached a peak of 55.28 CNY, with a trading volume of 584,500 hands and a market capitalization of 191.32 billion CNY [4] - Jiamai Packaging achieved an 11-day consecutive limit-up, trading at 13.04 CNY per share [7][10] - The stock of Hengtong Light surged by 1007.95% upon its debut on the Beijing Stock Exchange, opening at 350 CNY per share [11][13] Company Announcements - Jiamai Packaging announced that its main business had not undergone significant changes, and there are no plans for major asset restructuring in the near future [10] - Hengtong Light, established in 2011, focuses on passive optical device products and has a client base that includes major companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [11][14]

Market Overview - On December 31, the A-share market opened slightly higher, with the three major indices turning positive: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.1%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.13%, and ChiNext Index up 0.22% [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 528.8 billion yuan with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 502.8 billion yuan for the day [2]. Sector Performance - The precious metals sector showed overall gains, while sectors such as agriculture, retail, and oil & petrochemicals underperformed [6][10]. - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a rise, with active trading in industrial metals, copper, cobalt, and nickel stocks [8][9]. Individual Stock Highlights - Jiangxi Copper reached its daily limit, with other stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy, Guocheng Mining, Jingyi Co., and Zijin Mining also seeing gains [9]. - Jia Mei Packaging achieved an 11-day consecutive limit-up, trading at 13.04 yuan per share [11][12]. - On December 31, the newly listed stock Hengdongguang opened at 350 yuan per share, soaring by 1007.95% and reaching a peak increase of 1128.24% [15][16]. Company Specifics - Hengdongguang, established in 2011, focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of passive optical devices in the optical communication field. Its products are widely used in data centers and telecom networks, with clients including Google, Amazon, and Microsoft [18]. - The company issued 10.25 million shares at a price of 31.59 yuan per share, aiming to raise approximately 32.38 million yuan, with a net amount expected to be around 27.78 million yuan after deducting issuance costs [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to pre - holiday capital prudence, base metals will experience a rise followed by a fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin prices stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist. There are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 - **Copper**: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices will continue to operate at high levels. The macro - environment shows US economic resilience and the Fed's easing policies. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and there are expectations of reduced refined copper production. On the demand side, it is in a weak season with inventory accumulation. The risk of LME copper squeezing has weakened. In the future, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - **Alumina**: Cost support is not effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. On the supply side, there is insufficient real - world contraction and strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak. From the perspective of warehouse receipt digestion, there is pressure on the price. The price may fluctuate more as it enters a low - valuation range. It is expected to remain in a volatile state [7] - **Aluminum**: Capital sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas supply is expected to tighten. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [9][10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support continues, and the price will oscillate at high levels. Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. On the supply side, there are risks of production reduction. On the demand side, it may weaken marginally. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [11] - **Zinc**: Domestic and overseas inventory trends are divergent, and zinc prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and production may decline. On the demand side, it is in the off - season with limited new orders. In the short term, prices may oscillate at high levels, and in the long term, there may be a downward trend [12][13] - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals, and supply - demand may weaken. On the supply side, production may increase as smelters resume production. On the demand side, battery enterprise operating rates are declining, and demand is weakening marginally. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile state [14][15] - **Nickel**: Expectations of Indonesian policies cause disruptions, and nickel prices have risen significantly. On the supply side, there is still pressure, but Indonesia's planned reduction of nickel ore production in 2026 may change the situation. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [15][19] - **Stainless Steel**: Rising nickel prices drive up the stainless - steel market. Cost support exists, and production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [20][22] - **Tin**: Pre - holiday long - position reduction causes a correction in tin prices. On the supply side, there are risks and production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [22][23] 2.行情监测 - **Copper**: Not provided in the given content - **Alumina**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum Alloy**: Not provided in the given content - **Zinc**: Not provided in the given content - **Lead**: Not provided in the given content - **Nickel**: Not provided in the given content - **Stainless Steel**: Not provided in the given content - **Tin**: Not provided in the given content 3.中信期货商品指数 - On December 30, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index was 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index was 2271.47, up 0.56%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2675.54, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day increase of 1.47%, a 1 - month increase of 6.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.91% [147][149]