Core Viewpoints - The report reiterates the focus on "price increase" opportunities due to current market conditions, including geopolitical disturbances and upcoming quarterly reports, suggesting that sectors with price increase expectations are the most certain investment opportunities [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current price increase trend is similar to that of 2020-2021, driven by global monetary easing and structural supply-demand mismatches in various industries, such as the semiconductor sector affected by pandemic-induced demand shifts [2][3] - The semiconductor industry, particularly storage, is experiencing price increases due to AI demand, with potential future impacts from tightened rare earth exports affecting supply chains [2][3] Metal Sector Precious Metals - Gold and silver are seen as strategic assets, with gold benefiting from geopolitical instability and central bank purchases, while silver has both precious and industrial metal attributes, showing strong price support due to supply-demand gaps [4][6] Minor Metals - Prices for cobalt, tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are expected to rise due to export restrictions and increasing demand from downstream industries, with cobalt's price expected to rise following changes in export regulations [6][8] Chemical Sector - The PTA industry is anticipated to recover as major players seek to improve profitability through potential production cuts, while pesticide prices, particularly glyphosate, have seen significant increases [7][8] Semiconductor Sector - The storage chip market is entering a growth phase driven by recovering consumer electronics and unexpected AI server demand, leading to price hikes across various storage products [8][9] New Energy Sector Battery and Raw Materials - The demand for energy storage and power batteries is surging, with rising raw material costs pushing up battery prices, particularly for lithium iron phosphate and electrolyte [9][10] Wind Power - The wind power sector is witnessing a rebound in bidding prices due to industry self-regulation and increased global demand for wind installations [11][12] Photovoltaic Silicon - The multi-crystalline silicon industry is seeing a reduction in effective capacity due to policy-driven supply-side adjustments, moving towards a more balanced supply-demand scenario [12] Copper Clad Laminate - The demand for copper clad laminate is increasing due to rising capital expenditures from major internet companies, leading to price increases from manufacturers [13] Diesel Generators/UPS Lead-Acid Batteries - The demand for diesel generators and UPS lead-acid batteries is growing rapidly due to the expansion of data centers, with supply constraints leading to price increases [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In the first two weeks of October, the National Day holiday slowed down industrial production and downstream investment. Food prices declined after the holiday. The SCFI index rose slightly while the CCFI decline widened. Port freight volume remained high during the National Day. Most industrial product operating rates decreased in the first week after the holiday, with a slow resumption. Cement and rebar prices fell slightly, and real - estate transactions decreased seasonally and were lower year - on - year. - For the bond market, the repeated overseas trade situation may briefly boost bond market sentiment, but domestic macro - policies are expected to take effect. In October, fundamental factors are mixed. The market should focus on changes in risk appetite and bond market expectations. The "wide - credit" tools are expected to help the economy achieve its annual growth target [5][40][43]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Inflation - related - Food prices accelerated their decline after the holiday. The average wholesale price of pork, vegetables, and fruits all decreased. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the vegetable basket product wholesale price index changed from rising to falling [9]. 3.2 Import - export related - Freight demand remained strong around the holiday. The CCFI index decline widened, while the SCFI index rebounded. North American route transport demand stabilized slightly due to US trade policy changes, and route freight rates increased. Port throughput remained high during the National Day. The BDI and CDFI indices weakened for two consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Industry - related - After the holiday, the thermal coal price stopped falling and stabilized due to increased power plant consumption and potential supply tightening. The rebar inventory reduction slowed down due to the holiday. Copper prices rose strongly for two consecutive weeks due to tight supply and the "weak - dollar" expectation. Glass futures prices fell slightly for two consecutive weeks [17][22]. 3.4 Investment - related - Cement prices declined slightly after the holiday. New and second - hand housing transactions slowed down due to the holiday, with performance weaker than in 2024 [26][30]. 3.5 Consumption - related - From September 1st to 27th, passenger car retail sales were flat year - on - year. Crude oil prices declined for two consecutive weeks. During the National Day holiday, the number of travelers increased slightly year - on - year, but per - capita spending decreased by 0.6% [33][35][38].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the narrative of a "weak dollar" has become deeply ingrained in the market, influencing global asset prices, particularly benefiting emerging markets over developed markets since September [2][10] - The performance of global stock markets has shown a clear trend where emerging markets, particularly Brazil and South Korea, have outperformed developed markets due to their sensitivity to the dollar index and the effects of AI and metal mining [2][10] - Precious metals, especially gold and silver, have emerged as the strongest sectors under the weak dollar narrative, outperforming industrial metals like copper [2][22] Group 2 - The report discusses two potential paths for the U.S. economy: one led by the service sector, which could lead to recession and a rebound in the dollar, and another led by manufacturing, which could result in a soft landing and a more gradual weakening of the dollar [31][34] - The divergence between the service and manufacturing sectors in the U.S. has been the longest since 2000, with the service sector showing resilience while manufacturing struggles under high interest rates [31][33] - The report suggests that if manufacturing leads the recovery, the extent of the dollar's weakness will depend on the comparative strength of the U.S. economy versus non-U.S. economies [34] Group 3 - For Chinese assets, the report outlines two scenarios: one where a rebound in the dollar due to increased risk aversion could lead to capital outflows from non-U.S. markets, and another where a recovery in U.S. manufacturing could bolster export demand for Chinese goods [3][49] - The report emphasizes that despite recent gains, Chinese assets still have a significant valuation gap compared to developed markets, suggesting potential resilience in the face of dollar fluctuations [3][45] - The potential recovery of global manufacturing could lead to improved export orders for China, supporting domestic demand and corporate profitability [3][51] Group 4 - The report indicates that the reliance on the weak dollar narrative may not sustain a long-term bull market for Chinese equities, suggesting that a shift in market dynamics may be necessary [3][57] - It recommends investors prepare for changes driven by domestic improvements and global economic shifts, focusing on sectors like upstream resources and capital goods that could benefit from a recovery in manufacturing [3][58] - The report also highlights the potential for consumer sectors, particularly travel-related industries, to see a rebound as travel data improves compared to previous years [3][62]

Group 1 - The core objective of recent policies by the Trump administration is to alleviate U.S. fiscal pressure, as evidenced by the significant increase in interest payments on national debt from $432.6 billion in FY2016 to nearly $1.13 trillion by FY2025 [1][5][9] - The administration's push for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is aimed at reducing debt servicing costs, which have increased by approximately $700 billion since Trump's first term [1][7][9] - Despite the Fed's rate cuts potentially saving around $412 billion to $1.93 trillion in interest payments, this is insufficient to cover the existing fiscal gap of about $400 billion, prompting the administration to seek additional revenue sources [2][15][19] Group 2 - The Trump administration's policies, including the "Gold Card" initiative and increased H1B fees, are part of a broader strategy to generate revenue and address the fiscal shortfall [15][17] - The relationship between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve has deteriorated, with the administration advocating for monetary policy to support fiscal needs, which may undermine the Fed's independence and affect the credibility of the U.S. dollar [2][17][19] - As a result of these policies, capital is expected to flow out of the U.S., benefiting non-U.S. assets such as precious metals and Chinese assets, as the dollar's creditworthiness is likely to weaken [3][19][21] Group 3 - The anticipated decline in interest rates and the weakening of the dollar may lead to increased investment in non-U.S. markets, particularly in Chinese assets, as the yuan is expected to appreciate due to narrowing interest rate differentials [3][19][21] - The Chinese capital market is expected to benefit from these trends, with a solid long-term upward trajectory supported by favorable domestic policies and the ongoing global shift towards non-U.S. assets [21][22][23] - The current geopolitical landscape and the strategic positioning of China in global markets are likely to enhance investor confidence and risk appetite, further supporting the A-share market [21][22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies of the Trump administration, including tariff wars, interest rate cuts, and the "Gold Card" plan, are primarily aimed at alleviating U.S. fiscal pressure, despite appearing disorganized on the surface [1][6][19]. Group 1: Fiscal Pressure and Policy Responses - The U.S. government's interest expenditure has increased significantly, from $432.6 billion in FY 2016 to nearly $1.13 trillion by FY 2025, indicating a rise of approximately $700 billion [1][8]. - The Trump administration has attempted to address this fiscal gap through various measures, including tariffs, which are expected to generate around $200 billion in additional revenue, and other cost-saving initiatives [9][19]. - Despite these efforts, there remains a funding gap of about $400 billion that needs to be addressed [9][19]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are projected to save the government between $41.2 billion and $193.1 billion in interest expenditures, depending on the extent of the cuts [16][17]. - Even with aggressive rate cuts, the savings are insufficient to cover the existing fiscal shortfall, prompting the Trump administration to seek additional revenue sources [19][21]. Group 3: Currency and Asset Implications - The push for lower interest rates and the potential weakening of the U.S. dollar may lead to capital flowing out of the U.S., benefiting non-U.S. assets such as precious metals and cryptocurrencies [3][21]. - The anticipated appreciation of the Chinese yuan, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials, could attract foreign investment into Chinese markets, following a three-step process starting with Hong Kong stocks [3][23]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - The current macroeconomic environment suggests that A-shares in China are likely to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by China's competitive advantages and favorable capital market policies [25][26]. - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics and the strategic shift in China's approach to international relations may enhance investor confidence and risk appetite, further supporting the Chinese capital market [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The basic metals are expected to maintain an oscillatory upward pattern in the short - to - medium term, supported by a weak US dollar and supply disruptions, while the weak terminal demand will limit the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding in copper, aluminum, and tin are recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Grasberg copper mine has a large production cut, and copper prices are operating strongly. The reduction in Grasberg's production intensifies the supply shortage, and with the Fed's interest rate cut and the approaching peak demand season, if copper inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [7][8]. - **Alumina**: Affected by anti - involution sentiment, alumina prices have a slight rebound. The fundamentals show an over - supply situation, but the limited decline in ore prices restricts the downside. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the demand quality, and aluminum prices are oscillating. After the interest rate cut, the supply is increasing with new capacity, and the demand is expected to improve, but the inventory accumulation continues. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may rise in the medium term [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support remains, and the market is oscillating. The cost reduction space is limited, the supply and demand are marginally improving, and short - term price oscillation is expected. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13][16]. - **Zinc**: The expectation of supply - demand surplus is still strong, and zinc prices are weak. Macro factors support the non - ferrous sector, but the supply is increasing and the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16][17]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead is decreasing, and lead prices are oscillating strongly. With the approaching of the National Day, downstream enterprises are stocking up, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [18][20]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 230,000 tons, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The market sentiment dominates the price, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. Short - term wide - range oscillation is expected [21][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and stainless steel prices are oscillating. The prices of nickel and chromium are stable, and the supply is increasing. Attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season and the inventory change [26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are oscillating. The supply is tight, but the terminal demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [27][28]. 3.2行情监测 - Not provided with specific monitoring content in the given text

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [2] - Date: September 25, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The Shanghai copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly before the holiday. The high copper price suppresses downstream pre - holiday stocking sentiment, but the weak US dollar in the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and China's potential pre - holiday restocking expectations provide strong support for the price. Considering the release of the US non - farm payroll data in September during the holiday, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper price fluctuated narrowly. Fed Chair Powell's remarks on balancing inflation concerns and a weakening job market led to a rise in the US dollar index, putting pressure on copper prices. However, the sharp rise in the A - share market increased investors' risk appetite. The spot copper price rose by 35 to 80045, and the spot premium remained flat at 55. The downstream stocking sentiment was weak approaching the holiday, and the premium was under pressure. The price structure remained near par. [11] 2. Industry News - Southern Copper plans to keep its copper production in the country stable in 2025 and is betting on capacity expansion in the next decade through multi - billion - dollar new projects. The company's CFO expects this year's copper production to be roughly the same as last year's 414,000 tons, and the production of molybdenum and silver will also remain stable. The company operates two major mines in Peru, which produced 13,400 tons of molybdenum and 177.2 tons of silver last year [12] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Standardization Administration of China issued the "Three - Year Action Plan for the Standard System and Standard Development to Support the New Round of Mineral Exploration Breakthrough Strategic Action (2025 - 2027)". In 2025, a collaborative promotion mechanism for geological and mineral standardization work will be initially established, and 20 - 25 important and urgently needed standards for mineral exploration breakthrough will be developed and released. In 2026, another 20 - 25 such standards will be developed and released, and in 2027, 30 - 35 standards will be developed and released [12]

Core Viewpoint - The financial conference primarily focused on summarizing the achievements of financial regulation over the past five years, with no short-term policy adjustments discussed [2][5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with a shift from addressing external conflicts to balancing internal demand, emphasizing a low-interest financing environment and avoiding structural asset overheating [6][7]. - The number of local government financing platforms has decreased by over 60%, and their debt scale has dropped by more than 50% over the past five years, marking significant progress in managing hidden local debts [8][9]. Stock Market Insights - The conference highlighted a preference for a "slow bull" market rather than a "fast bull," with the annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index decreasing by 2.8 percentage points to 15.9% over the past five years [10][11]. - The technology sector's market capitalization now exceeds 25% of the A-share market, with the number of top 50 listed companies in the tech sector increasing from 18 to 24 over the last five years [12]. - The capital market is encouraged to serve the real economy, promote industrial integration, and enhance resource allocation efficiency, with significant reforms in the stock market observed in the past year [13][14]. Market Trends - Recent market movements show a surge in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, driven by strong iPhone 17 sales and rising prices in memory chips due to AI demand [17][19]. - Agricultural Bank of China continues to experience significant declines, with its price-to-book ratio at 0.85, indicating ongoing valuation discrepancies compared to other major banks [21][22][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cast aluminum alloy is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coexistence of the off - peak season during the supposed peak period and cost support is expected to lead to an oscillatory trend in the market. The price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots showed a weak and oscillatory performance last week. Macroeconomic factors, cost, and inventory conditions will jointly affect the price trend of ADC12, with the price expected to oscillate. One - sided trading can consider lightly - weighted long positions on dips, and the existing arbitrage positions can be held with appropriate stop - profit settings [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. 1. Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers but Remains Low, Price Oscillates at High Levels - Last week (09/15 - 09/19), the price of remelted aluminum alloy ingots oscillated weakly. The closing price of AD2511 decreased by 1.6% week - on - week to 20,325 yuan/ton, and the sales price of Baotai Group's ADC12 dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The price of waste aluminum in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the FOB price of Malaysian crushed primary aluminum increased by 33 US dollars to 2,233 US dollars/ton. The production cost of Fubao's ADC12 decreased by 113.3 yuan/ton to 20,226 yuan/ton, and the profit widened by 13.2 yuan/ton to 73.8 yuan/ton [12][13] - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly driven by the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.2. 2. Recent Industry News Review - In July 2025, the global primary aluminum supply was short of 11.99 tons, and from January to July 2025, the supply shortage was 98.53 tons [18] - In August, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry was 53.3%, showing an improvement from the off - season to the peak season. Primary alloys expanded steadily, while recycled alloys were still below the boom - bust line [19] - In July 2025, China's waste aluminum imports increased by 18.7% year - on - year, with Thailand and Japan being the major suppliers [19] - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to regulate investment promotion behaviors, including rectifying illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies [19][20] - The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [20] 3.3. 3. Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. 3.1 Waste Aluminum: Arrival Marginally Recovers, Price Remains High - This week, waste aluminum prices remained high but declined week - on - week, mainly due to the weakening of primary aluminum prices. The supply shortage of waste aluminum persists, especially for crushed primary aluminum. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises continued to rise, but the peak - season expectations are difficult to fulfill, and the continuous increase in the operating rate may not be sustainable. The supply - demand game of waste aluminum will remain intense, and the price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [15] 3.3.2. 3.2 ADC12: Price is Strong, Social Inventory is High - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated weakly this week, with a 1.6% decline. The sales price of Baotai's ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton. The ADC12 - A00 spread marginally narrowed. After entering the traditional peak season, the market performance was below expectations, and the social inventory of ADC12 continued to rise. The production of standard warehouse receipts for cast aluminum alloy futures will start on September 22nd. The pre - holiday inventory - building demand is expected to provide short - term support for the spot price, and the trading activity of ADC12 in the trading segment increased this week due to the strengthening of the basis. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots continued to rise to 7.14 tons, and the factory - level inventory increased by 0.03 tons to 6.08 tons [16] 3.3.3. 3.3 Downstream: Peak - Season Expectations are Difficult to Fulfill - The high - frequency data of new - energy vehicles showed signs of weakening, and the peak - season expectations for the downstream industry are difficult to fulfill. The production and sales data of the automotive and motorcycle industries are presented in the report, reflecting the current situation of the downstream demand [2][60][66]

Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the US dollar rebounded and demand was weak, causing the non - ferrous metals to give back recent gains. In the medium and short term, the weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, while weak terminal demand expectations limit the upside. It is expected that basic metals will generally maintain a pattern of oscillating upward. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices had a phased decline. In the medium term, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. - **Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. Freeport - McMoRan's Indonesian mine suspended operations. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The spot premium of electrolytic copper rebounded, and copper inventories increased. The "770 - Document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the market's optimistic sentiment declined after the interest rate cut. On the supply side, mine supply disruptions increased, and recycled copper production cuts were expected. On the demand side, the peak season had arrived, but inventory reduction was not obvious. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and with increased supply disruptions and a low - level US dollar index, copper is expected to show an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The weak fundamentals have not improved significantly, and alumina prices are oscillating weakly. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices declined in multiple regions on September 18. In August 2025, China's alumina exports increased year - on - year, and aluminum bauxite imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Alumina warehouse receipts decreased. - **Logic**: Macro sentiment interfered with the market. Fundamentally, refinery profits shrank, but raw materials were relatively abundant. Operating capacity continued to reach new highs, and the market was in an oversupply situation. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, with prices under pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies or waiting and watching, and also pay attention to the 10 - 1, 2 - 3 reverse arbitrage opportunities [10][12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: After the interest rate cut, aluminum prices declined. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Relevant policies were issued, and a company's new project is expected to be put into production in 2026. - **Logic**: In the short term, the interest rate cut was in line with expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment increased. On the supply side, replacement production capacity was put into operation, and on the demand side, the peak season was approaching, but the inventory reduction inflection point was not clear. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to be range - bound. In the medium term, supply growth is limited, and demand remains resilient, with the price center expected to rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: As the first warehouse receipt registration approaches, the market is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the price of Baotai ADC12 decreased, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The EU may impose a tax on scrap metal exports, and most die - casting enterprises plan to have holidays in October. - **Logic**: On the cost side, scrap aluminum supply was tight, providing cost support. On the supply side, the start - up rate increased marginally, and on the demand side, there was marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at a low level. In the future, there is room for an increase, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [14][15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, zinc prices declined with the non - ferrous metals. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the spot premium of zinc in different regions changed, and SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the interest rate cut was in line with expectations, and the non - ferrous metals sector declined. On the supply side, zinc ore supply was loose, and smelters' profitability was good. On the demand side, it was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations were average. - **Outlook**: In September, zinc ingot production will remain high, and inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to be oscillating [16][17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply of recycled lead decreased, and lead prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead increased. SMM's lead ingot price increased, and the spot premium decreased. Lead ingot social inventories increased slightly, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount and the price difference between primary and recycled lead increased, and warehouse receipts decreased. On the supply side, recycled lead production decreased, and on the demand side, it was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the lead - acid battery start - up rate was high. - **Outlook**: The macro - environment is positive. Lead demand is stable, and supply may tighten slightly. The supply - demand gap may continue, and lead prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [17][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventories increased significantly, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. - **Analysis**: On September 18, LME nickel inventories decreased slightly, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of high - nickel pig iron was firm, and relevant company events had little impact on production. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel supply is in excess, and inventories are accumulating. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are oscillating widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and watch [20][22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, stainless steel is operating weakly. - **Analysis**: Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased, the spot premium of stainless steel changed, and the average price of high - nickel pig iron increased. - **Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable. Stainless steel production increased in August, and inventory reduction was limited. - **Outlook**: Be vigilant about the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. Stainless steel is expected to be range - bound in the short term [24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Shanghai tin inventories have been declining continuously, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the spot price of tin decreased. - **Logic**: The supply side is the core concern. The复产 of the Wa State mine is slow, and African tin production is unstable. Supply is tight, but terminal demand is weakening, and inventories are rising. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating due to tight supply at the mine end [25].