国内需求继续修复 7月份物价运行边际改善 国家统计局8月9日发布的数据显示，7月份，我国CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%，涨幅高于季 节性水平0.1个百分点，同比持平；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩 大，为2024年3月以来最高。"这表明国内需求继续修复。"广开首席产业研究院首席金融研究员王运金 说。 物价是反映市场供需情况的重要指标。上半年，我国CPI同比下降0.1%，意味着国内消费仍然有待提 振。"这也给下半年我国宏观政策，特别是货币政策提出了新要求。"中国人民大学经济学院教授范志勇 说，预计下半年货币政策还会进一步发力。 事实上，从中央到各有关部门对当前价格和内需形势都有着深刻认识和共识。宏观政策部署更为超前。 今年6月24日，中国人民银行、国家发展改革委、财政部、商务部等6部门就联合对外发布了《关于金融 支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费 潜力、促进提升消费供给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提出19项重点举措。 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦 ...

邢予青说："如果我们不发展高端服务业，那么有资本和房子 的群体就会越来越富裕，而有技能、有才能的人的收入就涨不 上来，提振需求的难度就会更大。" 作者： 宋笛 邹卫国 封图：采访对象供图 2025年，"扩内需"与"反内卷"成为中国在需求侧和供给侧的两条政策主线。一方面，"两新""两重"等政策发力扩大有效投资和提振消费；另一方 面，部分行业产能调整与规范政府行为，则聚焦破解企业和政府层面的"内卷式"恶性竞争。 日本国立政策研究大学院大学经济学教授邢予青认为，政策在"扩内需""反内卷"领域已逐步取得成效，但如要持续改善，需要观察内需不足与"内 卷"加剧的深层原因，并据此作出调整。 在需求不足问题上，邢予青认为，按照马斯洛的需求理论，中国消费者已经有了更多更高层次的需求，这些需求应该是消费发展的空间。这类新需求需 要高知识、高技能的人才用聪明才智创造供给，而新的消费需求本身也能催生新的就业机会。但由于过去相关监管政策不完善、地方政府重视不足等原 因，这些消费领域发展相对滞后，特别是相关高端服务业，仍存在较大的发展空间。 邢予青说："如果我们不发展高端服务业，那么有资本和房子的群体就会越来越富裕，而有技能、有才能的人 ...

Macro Perspective - The current market is supported by a "dual easing" monetary and fiscal policy, which is the core driver for the slow bull market [2][7] - The macroeconomic fundamentals do not support a "crazy bull" or "fast bull" market, indicating a need for caution [5][6] - The market is expected to experience a "slight fluctuation" in the third quarter, with a significant upward trend starting in the fourth quarter [6][7] Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a slow upward trend, with a target of 4000 points by the end of the year and a medium-term target of 4500 points [10][11] - Six major policy areas are identified to support the capital market's positive outlook, including financial policies and corporate governance improvements [11][12] - The market's risk-reward ratio is considered favorable, with pullbacks seen as good opportunities for investment [12] Industry Focus - The focus on expanding domestic demand and countering "involution" is crucial for optimizing the existing economic structure [16][18] - Key future industries, particularly artificial intelligence, are expected to drive significant economic growth, potentially adding another GDP's worth of value over the next decade [16][17] - The "anti-involution" policies are aimed at stabilizing growth in major industries, covering nearly 40% of the A-share market capitalization [18]

Group 1: Policy Direction - The core policy themes for China in 2025 are "expanding domestic demand" and "countering involution," focusing on effective investment and consumption stimulation while addressing excessive competition in certain industries [1][9] - Professor Xing Yuqing emphasizes the need to analyze the deep-rooted causes of insufficient domestic demand and increasing involution to make necessary adjustments [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Demand - According to Maslow's hierarchy of needs, Chinese consumers are moving towards higher-level demands, indicating a need for high-skilled talent to create supply for these new consumption needs [1][2] - The development of high-end service industries is crucial for increasing income for skilled individuals, which in turn can stimulate demand [1][3] Group 3: Involution and Industrial Policy - Involution is exacerbated by unreasonable local government industrial policies, suggesting a need to revisit industrial policies to find solutions [1][10] - The phenomenon of excessive competition, such as price wars in the food delivery market, highlights the need for regulation to prevent unhealthy business practices [10][18] Group 4: Service Industry Development - The service industry, particularly high-end services, is essential for creating new employment opportunities and stimulating demand, which is currently lacking in China [3][4] - Japan's tourism industry serves as a successful model, demonstrating the importance of service sectors in driving economic growth and providing a more equitable growth model compared to capital-intensive industries [6][7] Group 5: Global Value Chain and Corporate Strategy - Companies are increasingly adjusting their global value chain distribution to balance risks, which aligns with the trend of Chinese enterprises going global [2][12] - The focus should shift from merely increasing production capacity to enhancing the value created by enterprises, positioning them as leaders in the global value chain [2][16] Group 6: Regulatory Environment - A conducive regulatory environment is necessary for the growth of high-end service industries, with calls for adjustments in regulations to improve service quality [4][5] - The need for stricter regulations in certain sectors, such as the medical beauty industry, is highlighted to ensure consumer safety and industry integrity [5][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the shift in policy focus from supply-side optimization to improving supply-demand dynamics, which is expected to enhance the competitive environment in various industries and positively impact employment, wages, and prices [1] - The central political bureau meeting proposed a dual approach of expanding domestic demand and implementing industrial policies to stimulate effective demand through consumption and investment, aiming to help the economy emerge from a deflationary cycle [1] - Fiscal policy is focused on the implementation of existing measures, while monetary policy aims to lower financing costs to prevent idle capital and effectively inject liquidity into the real economy [1] Group 2 - The capital market's clear positioning is expected to enhance its attractiveness and inclusiveness, supporting a stable recovery and improving asset prices, which will further expand domestic demand [1] - The policies are expected to support the high dividend sector in the Hong Kong stock market, as improvements in the economic fundamentals and increased market risk appetite will lead to a better overall market environment [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914) tracks securities with high dividend yields and stable payout records, primarily covering traditional high-dividend sectors such as finance and real estate [1]

Group 1 - The charging treasure industry is facing challenges due to low-quality products leading to safety issues, prompting regulatory actions to enhance product quality [1] - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing price wars and unrealistic sales targets, necessitating a return to rational competition and regulatory oversight [1] - Unfair competition characterized by price wars and scale expansion is detrimental to market health, requiring a focus on quality and innovation to foster a more productive environment [1] Group 2 - Both government and enterprises share the responsibility to combat "involution," with a need for regulatory measures to ensure fair competition and resource allocation [2] - Innovation is highlighted as a key strategy for growth, with examples of companies like Haier successfully addressing consumer pain points through product development [2] - Effective market mechanisms and government actions are essential to create a conducive business environment and stimulate innovation [2] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution" should be pursued simultaneously, with a focus on guiding competition towards healthier practices [3] - Innovative approaches to enhance consumer experiences, such as the development of cultural and recreational activities, are seen as effective strategies to stimulate demand [3] - Recent regulatory initiatives and industry discussions indicate a collective effort to promote fair competition and prevent detrimental practices in the market [3]

Group 1 - The charging treasure industry is facing challenges due to low-quality products leading to safety issues, prompting regulatory actions to enhance product quality [1] - The new energy vehicle sector is experiencing price wars and unrealistic sales targets, necessitating a return to rational competition and regulatory oversight [1] - Unfair competition characterized by price wars and scale expansion is detrimental to market health, requiring a focus on quality and innovation to foster a more productive environment [1] Group 2 - Both government and enterprises share the responsibility to combat "involution," with a need for regulatory frameworks to ensure fair competition and resource allocation [2] - Innovation is highlighted as a key strategy for growth, with examples of companies like Haier successfully addressing consumer pain points through product development [2] - Effective market mechanisms and government intervention are essential to create a conducive business environment and stimulate innovation [2] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution" should be pursued simultaneously, with a focus on guiding competition towards healthier practices [3] - Initiatives such as extending museum hours and developing new consumer experiences are being implemented to stimulate economic activity and move away from "involution" [3] - Recent legislative and regulatory actions indicate a collective effort to promote fair competition and prevent detrimental market practices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current policy focus on "expanding domestic demand" and "reducing competition" is expected to lead to a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may turn negative again due to seasonal factors [1] CPI Analysis - The CPI is projected to rise by 0.16% month-on-month in July, but year-on-year may drop to -0.45% due to base effects [1] - Huachuang Securities forecasts a year-on-year CPI of approximately -0.1% and a month-on-month increase of about 0.3% [1] - The CPI year-on-year growth is expected to weaken from 0.1% in June to -0.2% in July, primarily due to food prices [1][2] Food Price Impact - Food prices are a major factor, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month decline, influenced by seasonal supply increases in fruits and eggs [2] - Wholesale prices show a mixed trend: pork up 1.2%, vegetables up 0.7%, eggs down 1.9%, fruits down 5.2%, beef up 0.1%, and lamb down 0.2% [2] - The vegetable price index in Shouguang turned negative at -11.4% year-on-year, influenced by last year's high base [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI is expected to rise month-on-month by 0.18% and improve year-on-year to -2.79% due to the "reducing competition" policy [3] - Huachuang Securities anticipates a year-on-year PPI improvement from -3.6% to -3.5% [3] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates a rise in the prices of major raw materials, suggesting a potential increase in PPI [3] Energy and External Factors - Energy prices are influenced by external factors such as a strong dollar and OPEC+ production expectations, with Brent crude oil prices showing a year-on-year decline of -17.1% [4] - Coal prices are rising due to increased demand during peak electricity usage [4] - The "reducing competition" policy has positively impacted black metal prices, while construction materials like cement continue to weaken [4] Overall Economic Outlook - The combination of macro policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and addressing "internal competition" is expected to create a more rational competitive environment, potentially accelerating a positive price cycle [4] - Despite the likelihood of PPI remaining negative in the short term, there is a need to monitor policy changes in key industrial chains to prevent irrational price increases [4]

Group 1 - The "New Trend Goods Festival" launched by Fenqile Mall focuses on categories such as digital equipment, cooling appliances, and Valentine's Day gift boxes, running from August 1 to August 8, aiming to stimulate young consumer activity and boost the summer consumption market [1][2] - Fenqile Mall, as the first installment shopping mall in China, offers a unique e-commerce model that facilitates "easy consumption" through installment payments, with various product categories available for purchase on installment [3][4] - During the event, discounts can reach up to 900 yuan for core popular products through a combination of subsidies, and many items are available with a 3-month interest-free installment option, significantly lowering the consumption threshold for young consumers [3][4] Group 2 - The festival includes a range of general discount coupons, such as 160 yuan off for purchases over 4000 yuan, 100 yuan off for purchases over 2000 yuan, and 40 yuan off for purchases over 400 yuan, catering to different consumer levels [2][3] - Additional targeted subsidies for categories like second-hand goods, mobile phones, and beauty products will be launched, along with customized discounts for seasonal items and Valentine's gifts, further stimulating category consumption [2][3] - Fenqile Mall is a crucial part of the Lexin ecosystem, continuously expanding its product categories and introducing high-quality, cost-effective goods to enhance the shopping experience for young consumers [4][5]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight decline of 0.9% in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the Wande Micro Index rose by 1.5%[5] - The S&P 500 index in the US fell by 2.4% due to unexpected cooling in non-farm payroll data[6] - The manufacturing PMI in China decreased to 49.3%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point drop from the previous month[10] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The major raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, indicating rising costs[7] - The ex-factory price index rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%, suggesting price improvements in manufacturing[7] - The unemployment rate in the US slightly increased to 4.2%, with non-farm employment growth revised down to 33,000 jobs[6] Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The Politburo meeting on July 30 emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies[7] - The introduction of a child-rearing subsidy of 3,800 yuan per child per year aims to stimulate domestic demand[7] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 80% following recent economic data[6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Suggested investment focus includes technology growth sectors, benefiting from both domestic and external demand[8] - Emphasis on sectors likely to improve due to "anti-involution" policies, such as renewable energy and traditional cyclical industries[8] - Caution advised regarding macroeconomic recovery not meeting expectations and potential tightening of monetary policy[8]