Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate consumption and investment, thereby expanding effective demand in China [1][4]. Group 1: Coordination of Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) outlines three main ways to achieve synergy between monetary and fiscal policies: maintaining ample market liquidity to support efficient government bond issuance, using "re-lending + fiscal subsidies" to optimize financial resource allocation, and sharing risk costs to enhance financial institutions' willingness to support enterprise financing [1][2]. - The first method involves the PBOC creating a favorable monetary environment for government bond issuance through daily liquidity management, which has been crucial as government bond issuance has increased due to proactive fiscal policies [1][2]. Group 2: Specific Mechanisms - The second method combines re-lending tools with fiscal subsidy policies, where re-lending incentivizes financial institutions to direct credit towards specific sectors, while fiscal subsidies help optimize economic structure from the demand side [2][3]. - The third method focuses on risk-sharing between fiscal and monetary policies, which enhances financial institutions' willingness to provide financing to enterprises. This includes the establishment of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation and private enterprises [2][3]. Group 3: Impact on Enterprises - The article highlights that re-lending can indirectly influence enterprise behavior by linking the supply of base currency to the loan amounts directed towards supported sectors, thus creating favorable financial conditions for economic restructuring [3]. - Fiscal policies, through subsidies and tax incentives, can directly adjust resource allocation and influence enterprise behavior, demonstrating a direct incentive effect that supports economic transformation [3]. Group 4: Future Directions - The PBOC plans to continue strengthening the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to amplify policy effectiveness, guiding social capital to promote consumption and investment, and collectively supporting stable growth and structural adjustments for high-quality economic development [4].

Group 1 - The event "Expand Domestic Demand, Promote Consumption, Celebrate the Spring Festival" was held from February 2 to 4, organized by the Municipal Federation of Industry and Commerce in collaboration with Jining Confucius Cultural Tourism Group to stimulate consumer potential and broaden sales channels for private enterprises [1] - The event focused on the characteristics of Spring Festival consumption, featuring high-quality products from member enterprises of the Municipal Federation of Industry and Commerce, including specialty agricultural products, cultural and creative products, and daily consumer goods, to meet the diverse purchasing and cultural consumption needs during the Spring Festival [3] - The event attracted a large number of visitors, creating a lively atmosphere and receiving widespread acclaim, indicating strong consumer interest and engagement [3] Group 2 - The Municipal Federation of Industry and Commerce plans to further establish a platform for production and sales connections, innovate the format of exhibition and sales activities, and enrich the content of events to enhance the influence of local products and support the high-quality development of the private economy [4] - The initiative aims to inject more momentum into the economic and social development of the city by empowering consumption [4]

2026年启幕"十五五"新篇，全球经济于大国博弈与技术变革中寻求平衡，中国经济则在韧性增长与结构 升级中迈向高质量发展。外部环境变幻、内需复苏、新质生产力培育及金融"五篇大文章"落地，构成新 一年核心议题。值此，金融界特别推出《启航·预见2026》栏目，聚集百位首席，拆解政策取向、解析 产业机遇、预判市场走势。 本文来源：东方金诚研究发展部 2025年12月，中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为2026年八大重点任务首位， 凸显扩内需对稳经济的核心作用。其中，推动房地产市场止跌回稳，是提振内需、尤其是居民消费需求 的重要一环，预计2026年房地产行业政策仍将延续边际宽松。但当前政策基调已从短期托底转向长效机 制构建，政策制定更加注重短期刺激与长期机制的协调配合，这意味着2026年短期刺激政策的力度和节 奏不会明显强于2025年。 从需求端来看，在各类购房限制性措施已基本取消、未来边际松动空间不大的情况下，2026年房地产需 求端政策的核心是引导实际购房贷款利率下行。 2022年以来，房地产支持政策频出，其中，房贷利率累计下调约250bp，但房地产市场下跌势头不止， 对房贷利率下调似乎已不再 ...

Economic Outlook - The weighted economic growth target for 2026 has decreased from 5.28% in 2025 to 5.04%[7] - Only one province, Jiangxi, has increased its target, while 18 regions have lowered their targets or set them as ranges, indicating a focus on structural adjustments and new industry development[10] Labor Market Analysis - The January ADP employment report showed an increase of 22,000 jobs, below the expected 45,000 and the previous month's increase of 41,000[14] - The decline in job vacancies and a surge in layoffs suggest that the Federal Reserve may have underestimated the risks in the labor market[14] Monetary Policy Insights - In January, the central bank's net liquidity injection totaled 1.27 trillion yuan, ensuring ample liquidity at the start of the year[18] - The expectation for comprehensive interest rate cuts has weakened, despite increased liquidity measures[18] International Developments - The Japanese ruling party achieved a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives, potentially initiating a constitutional amendment agenda, although challenges remain in the Senate[19] - The geopolitical risks in Japan have increased due to rising fiscal pressures and a shift towards a more conservative society[19] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.27% last week, with the majority of major indices in decline, reflecting a cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday[25] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 1.84% while the Dow Jones increased by 2.50%[27] Bond Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3 basis points to 4.21%, influenced by weak labor market data[29] - European bond yields showed varied movements, with German 10-year bonds yielding 2.84%[29] Commodity Market Movements - WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.55% to $63.6 per barrel, while gold prices increased by 1.43% to $4,964.4 per ounce[32] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to reduced geopolitical risks, while gold rebounded from previous lows[32] Currency Fluctuations - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.66% to 97.6, while the onshore yuan appreciated by 0.32% to 6.94[34] - The appreciation of the yuan is driven by pre-holiday settlement demand[34] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in global macroeconomic data, geopolitical developments, and the pace of technological advancements[36]

上周A股市场整体承压，主要宽基指数普遍下跌，价值股整体表现偏强。行业上，食品饮料、银行、建 材行业继续上行，有色、通信、石化行业转跌，电子、计算机、化工行业继续下跌。 宏观分析：地方两会政策聚焦扩内需与强科技 国内方面，地方两会时间开启，从各地经济增长目标和政策部署来看，增长目标稳中有降，增量政策聚 焦扩内需与强科技。 投资策略：关注内需价值与新兴科技两大方向 在震荡之后，市场有望逐步企稳，或可持股过节。市场仍具备以下积极因素：1）全球市场正快速计入 美联储潜在的鹰派货币立场，但从路径角度沃什的降息立场更鸽派和确定。与此同时，贝森特澄清强美 元政策并非指干预汇率，海外金融紧缩预期边际改善。2）国内政策重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要 任务，有望提振中国经济前景与资产回报。3）证监会近期再次强调"全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势 头"，A股上市公司亦掀起回购热潮。 投资思路上，新兴科技仍有望是主线，价值股也有春天。考虑到当下估值分化的极端性，以及资金高低 切的部分需求，短期内风格有切换的可能性，可关注自由现金流指数等代表公司质量的标的。 具体方向上，1）内需价值：春节后内需板块超额概率较高，叠加扩内需成为重要增长抓手， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a decline in trading activity for hot themes, with a notable rise in space photovoltaic themes, while precious metals and resource products are experiencing a pullback. The focus of local two sessions is on expanding domestic demand and strengthening technology, particularly in sectors like commercial aerospace, robotics, urban renewal, and domestic consumption [1]. Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - Multiple local sessions are deploying tasks for the development of the commercial aerospace industry, with Shandong integrating Yantai Dongfang Aerospace Port into the national commercial aerospace layout and supporting companies like Tianbing Technology and Tianzhang Satellite in Henan [2]. - Elon Musk's team has examined China's photovoltaic industry chain, enhancing the enthusiasm for space photovoltaics, with expectations that by 2030, China will establish a world-leading space computing center [2]. - Recommendations include benefiting from the rapid development of medium and large reusable liquid rocket manufacturing and launch service industry chains, as well as space photovoltaic-related materials like gallium arsenide, heterojunction, and perovskite batteries [2]. Group 2: Robotics - Various regions are setting development tasks for the robotics industry by 2026, with Shandong aiming for a scale exceeding 200 billion yuan in robotics and smart equipment [3]. - The procurement of 100,000 tactile sensors by Lingxin Qiaoshou from Fulei New Materials indicates accelerated mass production in the industry [3]. - Recommendations focus on benefiting from technological upgrades in sensors, electronic skin, and dexterous hands, as well as companies capable of large-scale production like Tesla, Yushu, and Zhiyuan [3]. Group 3: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the real estate market and expanding domestic demand, with the State Council proposing major projects in infrastructure and urban renewal [4]. - Shanghai has outlined plans for urban renewal actions, including the acceleration of village renovations and the acquisition of second-hand housing to increase rental supply [4]. - Recommendations include construction materials such as waterproofing, pipes, and coatings, as well as infrastructure and public space updates like underground pipelines and landscaping [4]. Group 4: Domestic Consumption - The consumption structure in China is shifting from primarily goods consumption to a balance between goods and service consumption, with service consumption projected to account for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure by 2025 [5]. - Shanghai aims to cultivate 20 new integrated service consumption scenarios, while Guangdong is promoting the pet economy and various event-driven economies [5]. - Recommendations include sectors benefiting from travel, hotel, and airline consumption, as well as emerging consumption trends in sports and trendy products [5].

境内宏观：尽管新旧经济景气分化的结构延续，但2025Q4新经济景气中枢明显上移，并由AI向出海、资源品、服务消费等更多领域扩散。新兴科技产业 链呈现出供需两旺的特征，内部细分涨价赛道明显增多。 政策风向：各地2026年经济增长目标稳中有降，政策聚焦扩内需与强科技。15省将GDP目标下调0.5个百分点，12省GDP目标较去年基本不变。 境外宏观：1月美联储按兵不动符合预期，预计2026年或仍有2-3次降息。1月FOMC会议美联储对经济、就业和通胀都表现出了更乐观的态度，这为重启 降息增加了不确定性。 债券市场：债市方面，市场分歧加剧但难有单边行情。往后看，债券市场短期或将继续进行方向试探，但中期受当前宏观环境制约，预计难以走出单边趋 势行情。 摘要 6、投资策略 正文 1、政策风向： 权益市场：上周市场在周一大跌后维持震荡，价值股整体表现偏强。食品饮料、银行、建材行业继续上行，有色、通信、石化行业转跌，电子、计算机、 化工行业继续下跌。 投资策略：可关注：1）内需价值：春节后内需板块超额概率更高，叠加扩内需成为重要增长抓手，而市场预期与持仓均处于底部；2）新兴科技：中美的 竞争不再只是贸易的竞争，更是生产效率的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy is showing strong effects in boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, with significant participation and sales figures reported in January 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Changes - The latest data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that in January, the old-for-new policy benefited 16.13 million people, resulting in sales of 92.56 billion yuan in automobiles, home appliances, digital, and smart products [1]. - The new policy allows local governments more autonomy in determining subsidy categories, standards, and implementation methods, encouraging support for high-efficiency, water-efficient, and environmentally friendly products [1]. - Local governments are actively exploring subsidy categories, with Jiangsu province including smart home products like robotic vacuums and smart toilets in its subsidy list while maintaining traditional categories like home appliances and automobiles [1]. Group 2: Market and Industry Implications - The expansion of the old-for-new policy to include categories like smart glasses and drones signals a shift towards "tech consumption" and "quality living," facilitating the upgrade of industries and consumer demand [2]. - Fiscal subsidies are expected to lower the entry barriers for high-quality new products, accelerating market cultivation and providing early market validation for strategic emerging industries [2]. - Local differentiated subsidies are becoming a crucial support for the ongoing effectiveness of the old-for-new policy, promoting local advantageous industries and enhancing regional competitiveness [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 交通运输 春运拉开帷幕，航空迎周期景气拐点 周观点：2 月 2 日，2026 年春运正式拉开帷幕，首日全社会跨区域人员流动量 18498.6 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 11.3%，其中民航客运量 223.4 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 7.4%；根据航班管家，截至 2 月 6 日，2026 年春运民航累计平 均票价 840 元、同比 2025 年同期增长 3.0%，累计客座率 83.3%、同比 2025 年 同期增长 1.2 个百分点。在春运高景气预期下，继续看好" 扩内需"及" 反内卷" 下航空板块中长期景气度。 行情回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.90%，跑赢 上证指数 3.17 个百分点（上证指数下跌 1.27%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类 看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航空运输、快递、物流，涨幅分别为 8.15%、3.76%、 1.24%；跌幅前三名的板块分别为公路货运、航运、港口，跌幅分别为-0.85%、- 0.44%、-0.40%。 航运港口：VLCC ...