2025 年 8 月 28 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银、豆粕期货将偏强震荡 多 晶硅、碳酸锂、焦煤期货将偏弱宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、玻 璃、纯碱、PTA、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2509 阻力位 4404 和 4449 点，支撑位 4360 和 4330 点；IH2509 阻力位 2930 和 2951 点，支撑位 2903 和 2880 点；IC2509 阻力位 6900 和 6966 点，支撑位 6810 和 ...

Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Data**: TA2509 closed at 4,824 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan, with a trading volume of 685,933 and a decrease of 40,169. TA2601 closed at 4,784 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan, with a trading volume of 59,096 and a decrease of 22,690 [6]. - **Market Analysis and Forecast**: On the 27th, the main PTA futures contract TA2601 closed at 4,824 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 1.19%. The settlement price was 4,854 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 40,169 lots. With weak crude oil prices, dull polyester sales, and sufficient PTA spot supply, the spot basis is gradually weakening. It is expected that the PTA market will decline slightly [6]. 2. Industry News - **International Oil Prices**: International oil prices ended a four - day rally and closed lower. On August 26, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.25 per barrel, down $1.55 or 2.39%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.22 per barrel, down $1.58 or 2.30% [10]. - **PX Market**: The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $853 - 855 per ton, down $11 per ton. In the South Korean market, it was estimated at $833 - 835 per ton, down $11 per ton. There were two transactions reported, with any October cargo at $855.5 per ton and any November cargo at $851.5 per ton [10]. - **PTA Market in East China**: The PTA price in the East China market was 4,841 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 16 yuan/ton to the futures 2601 contract, down 10 yuan [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 21, equity indices showed mixed performance, CGB futures rose, and commodity futures had a mixed trend with energy and chemical futures relatively strong and agricultural product futures relatively weak [2][11][14]. - The top three gainers were silicon metal, sodium hydroxide, and paraxylene, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), egg, and coking coal [12][13][14]. - The report also provided analyses and outlooks for specific commodities such as silicon metal, PTA, and soybean meal [18][25][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 21, equity indices had some rising and some falling, CGB futures gained, and commodity futures showed a mixed trend with energy and chemical futures strong and agricultural product futures weak [11][14]. - The top three gainers were silicon metal (up 3.7% with 1.3% month - on - month open interest increase), sodium hydroxide (up 3.3% with 23.3% month - on - month open interest increase), and paraxylene (up 2.6% with 17.8% month - on - month open interest increase) [12][14]. - The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 2.5% with 5.0% month - on - month open interest increase), egg (down 2.2% with 10.9% month - on - month open interest increase), and coking coal (down 1.5% with 0.1% month - on - month open interest increase) [13][14]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On August 21, silicon metal increased by 3.7% to 8635 yuan/ton. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate under macro sentiment and coal prices with little fundamental change. Concentrated production resumption may suppress prices [18][20]. - In August, southwest capacity release has significant room, and some major manufacturers may resume production, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows signs of month - on - month improvement, and inventory is expected to accumulate [19][20]. 1.2.2 PTA - On August 21, PTA increased by 2.5% to 4860 yuan/ton, driven by domestic petrochemical news, South Korea's capacity cut, and plant maintenance [25][31]. - China's plan to address overcapacity and South Korea's capacity cut may impact PX imports. Plant maintenance eases short - term supply pressure [26][27][28]. - In the short term, polyester chain prices are expected to have stronger support due to reduced supply, increased demand, and positive news [29][32]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Soybean Meal - On August 21, soybean meal decreased by 1.0% to 3113 yuan/ton. With downstream stocking, the basis may rebound, and long positions at 2900 - 2910 should be held and increased on dips [36][40]. - The American Soybean Association called for an agreement with China. U.S. soybean growth is good, and Brazil's export volume has peaked [37][40]. - Domestically, near - term inventory pressure and long - term supply gap are recognized. Oil factory maintenance eases near - term pressure, and long - term demand may increase [39][40]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration will exempt personal income tax for child - rearing subsidies from January 1, 2025 [46]. - The American Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China to ease the crisis of soybean farmers [46]. 2.2 Industry News - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will promote the research and development of billet, cement, chicken, etc., and explore short - term options [47][48]. - HKEX will study a 24 - hour trading mechanism based on international experience and local market conditions [47][48].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in paraxylene (PX) futures prices is influenced by fluctuations in crude oil prices, with a notable increase of 2.33% observed in the main contract [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The main paraxylene futures contract reached a peak of 6984.0 yuan, closing at 6940.0 yuan [1] - Domestic PX production for the week was reported at 6.6933 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.4% [1] - The average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 82.67%, up 0.32% from the previous week [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The average PTA capacity utilization rate was 75.01%, down 0.91% from the previous week, with PTA production at 1.3841 million tons, an increase of 15,800 tons week-on-week [1] - PX load increased to 84.3%, a rise of 2.3% compared to the previous week [1] - Import statistics indicate that in July 2025, China's mainland PX imports totaled approximately 782,000 tons, marking a 2.2% increase month-on-month and a 23.7% increase year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term PX prices are expected to follow crude oil price trends, with resistance around 7050 yuan and support near 6600 yuan [1] - The market anticipates a potential short-term adjustment in PX prices, with a focus on cost factors and macroeconomic policy changes [1]

Market Performance - Corn starch futures showed a downward trend this week, with the main contract reported at 2602.00 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.23% [1] Market Information - As of August 18, the Dalian Commodity Exchange had 7450 corn starch futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The USDA report continues to reflect a loose expectation, exerting bearish pressure on the external market [1] - The harvest of South American corn is nearing completion, maintaining a high yield situation, which continues to exert phase pressure [1] - For the new season, the planting area of U.S. corn is expected to increase year-on-year, establishing a foundation for pressure, with good quality rates continuing to perform well [1] - Overall weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere are stable, contributing to relative pressure, and the external market may continue to seek a bottom in the short term [1] Inventory Data - As of August 13, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises nationwide was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.91%, a monthly increase of 1.60%, and a year-on-year increase of 20.33% [1]

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 772.0 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. Although the US steel and aluminum tariff expansion has a negative impact on market sentiment, considering that steel mills maintain high production to support the ore price and there is no obvious restorative growth in overseas shipments in the short term, the ore price still has some support in the short term. However, it is necessary to observe whether the actual impact of production cuts in the Tangshan area will have a negative impact on the fundamentals [7][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: On August 18, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. The opening price was 777 yuan/ton, the highest price was 784 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 766.5 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 772 yuan/ton, down 0.64%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes were down 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were down 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the green column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract had been enlarged for two consecutive trading days [7][9] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the total shipment volume in the past four weeks decreased by 6.2% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrival volume may fluctuate at a moderately low level. On the demand side, the downstream steel demand is still in a seasonal decline, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. However, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is still relatively strong, and the molten iron output rebounded after three consecutive weeks of decline, remaining at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons, which strongly supports the ore price [11] - **News Impact**: On August 15, 2025, the US Department of Commerce announced that 407 imported steel and aluminum derivative products would be included in the scope of the 232 - clause tariff of 50%. The effective time starts at 12:01 am on August 18, 2025, Eastern Time in the US. On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to stop production at any time according to the meteorological conditions from August 16 to 25 and to stop production from August 25 to September 3. It is estimated that the production restrictions in Tangshan will affect the daily output of about 90,000 tons of 35 billet - rolled section steel enterprises. If the production cuts are strictly implemented, it may have a negative impact on the fundamentals [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - On August 14, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam issued Announcement No. 2310/QD - BCT, making a positive anti - dumping final ruling on carbon and alloy steel coated sheets and coils originating from China and South Korea, and decided to impose anti - dumping duties on the涉案 products. The tax rate for China is 0 - 37.13%, and for South Korea is 0 - 15.67%. The measures are effective from the date of the announcement and are valid for five years [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipping volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the inventory available days of iron ore in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered ore powder, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax - free molten iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the inventory of five major steel products in steel mills [14][19][22]

Report Information - Report Title: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 18th, the main contract 2509 of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4383, with a high of 4383, a low of 4340, a settlement price of 4353, and a closing price of 4346, down 28 from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 91,926 lots, and the open interest was 128,989 lots [7]. - The current supply - demand structure is weak, and there is insufficient incremental support from the macro - level. It is expected that ethylene glycol may maintain a weak trend in the short term [7]. Industry News - Traders were cautious ahead of the meeting between Trump and Putin to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and crude oil futures gave up most of the previous day's gains. On Friday (August 15), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.80 per barrel, down $1.16 or 1.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.68 - $64.15. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.85 per barrel, down $0.99 or 1.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.73 - $67.06 [8]. - The spot negotiation price of the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 4436 - 4437 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation price for late August was 4436 - 4437 yuan/ton, and for late September was 4433 - 4435 yuan/ton. This week, the spot basis was at a premium of 90 - 91 yuan/ton over EG2509, the basis for late August cargo was at a premium of 90 - 91 yuan/ton over EG2509, and the basis for late September was at a premium of 87 - 89 yuan/ton over EG2509 [8]. - The prices of short - fiber factories were relatively stable, while the prices of traders increased slightly. Due to cost push, downstream demand was weak, and the on - site trading volume was scarce. The mainstream sales - to - production ratio of factories was 40.41% [8]. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including MEG futures prices, futures - spot price differences, international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]

Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] Core View - The PTA market is expected to be weak as crude oil rebounds weakly, PTA supply is sufficient, downstream polyester sales are generally dull, and market confidence is insufficient [6] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 14th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,640 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton or 1.40%. The settlement price was 4,664 yuan/ton, and the daily position was reduced by 62,460 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,666 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton. The trading volume of TA2509 was 342,285 lots, a decrease of 62,460 lots, while the trading volume of TA2601 was 527,922 lots, an increase of 123,308 lots [6] Industry News - The International Energy Agency raised its supply forecasts for this year and next and lowered its demand growth forecast. After data showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week, international oil prices fell for the second consecutive day. However, the decline narrowed after the US Treasury Secretary said that Trump could use sanctions in his meeting with Putin. On Wednesday (August 13), the settlement price of the September 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.65 per barrel, down $0.52 or 0.82% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94 - $63.38. The settlement price of the October 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.63 per barrel, down $0.49 or 0.74% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.01 - $66.33 [7] - The assessed price of PX in the Chinese market was $823 - $825 per ton, down $8 per ton from the previous trading day. The assessed price of PX in the South Korean market was $803 - $805 per ton, also down $8 per ton from the previous trading day. Against the backdrop of tense geopolitical relations, international oil prices continued to run weakly, resulting in insufficient cost momentum for PX. There was one transaction on the day, with any October shipment sold at $824 per ton [7] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,654 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 14 yuan/ton to the futures contract 2509, down 1 yuan/ton [7] Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as PTA futures price summary, spot-futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, upstream raw material spot price, PX price, MEG price, PTA processing margin, TA5 - 9 spread, PTA warehouse receipt quantity, polyester factory load rate, PTA downstream product price, and PTA downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][17]

8月14日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，PTA期货主力合约开盘报4692.00元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行，早盘收跌2.92%；截至发稿，PTA主力最高触及4704.00元，下方探低4630.00元，跌幅达1.36% 附近。 目前来看，PTA行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于PTA后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 宁证期货指出，PTA开工率回升，且虹港石化3期250万吨装置投产和7月三房巷（600370）320万吨装置 新产能投放，PTA供应端存在一定压力。下游8-9月为传统纺织旺季，随着秋冬订单集中下达，聚酯开 工率或回升至90%附近，但聚酯利润不佳，长丝FDY、瓶片、短纤产品现金流压缩严重，可能会影响后 续聚酯企业的生产积极性。PTA跟随原油震荡偏弱运行。 中财期货指出，PTA产能利用率较上一工作日+3.05%至76.70%，威联、嘉兴重启，海南检修。美国7月 CPI低于预期，9月降息预期强化，美元强势压制下油价下行，PX、PTA偏弱运行，下游聚酯需求弱现 实持续影响，聚酯产销维持淡季水平。PTA供需预计较上周有所好转，平衡表偏去库。聚酯样本企业综 合产销率42.94%，较上期下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for rapeseed meal experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 2617.00 yuan, with a current price of 2682.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.94% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Chaos Tiancheng Futures suggests that short-term drivers are limited, and rapeseed meal may maintain a range-bound operation due to a relatively sufficient supply and a balanced demand-supply situation [2] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that rapeseed meal prices will continue to experience a bearish trend in the short term, with stable import rhythms of raw materials and no significant positive news to support prices [3] - Zhonghui Futures notes that multiple factors are at play, with global rapeseed production recovering year-on-year, but there are risks of yield reductions for new crops. The domestic market shows a mixed inventory situation, with high levels of commercial stocks compared to last year [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand from aquaculture provides some support for rapeseed meal prices, while limited arrivals of rapeseed at ports contribute to a tightening supply expectation [2] - The import of rapeseed from August to October is expected to be significantly lower year-on-year, compounded by a 100% import tariff on rapeseed meal, which supports prices despite the pressure from improved import profits [4] - The current market shows a significant substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal, indicating competitive dynamics in the feed market [4] Group 3: Future Considerations - Market participants should pay attention to changes in trade policies between China and Canada, as well as weather conditions affecting rapeseed planting, which could impact future prices [3][4] - The focus should also be on the adjustments in rapeseed data from the upcoming USDA report, which may influence market sentiment [4]