Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on August 8, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate futures are expected to be strong or strongly volatile. Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are also expected to be strong. Copper and PTA futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Aluminum, alumina, zinc, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, glass, soda ash, crude oil, and PVC futures are expected to be weakly volatile [2][3][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China's unified policy of exempting preschool education fees for all kindergarten seniors in the fall semester of this year is expected to benefit about 12 million people, reducing family expenses by 20 billion yuan [7]. - S&P maintains China's sovereign credit rating at "A +" with a "stable" outlook. China's macro - policies will continue to strengthen in the second half of the year [7]. - In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The total for the first seven months was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [7]. - The central bank will conduct 70 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on August 8. Analysts believe that the central bank may continue the net investment model of outright reverse repurchases [8]. - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves were 329.22 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.52 billion US dollars from the end of June. Gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces [8]. - The Ministry of Justice and other departments will strengthen the governance of prominent problems in enterprise - related fines and increase supervision of government credit defaults [8]. - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management have pre - allocated 430 million yuan in central natural disaster relief funds [9]. - In July, China's road freight price index was 105 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The warehousing index was 50.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit. The US has started the interview process for the new Fed chair [9][11]. - Trump has made a series of personnel and policy decisions, including replacing a Fed governor, urging the resignation of Intel's CEO, and signing an executive order on financial services [10][11]. - The Fed's Bostic believes a rate cut this year is appropriate. US initial and continuing jobless claims increased. India's Modi will not compromise on farmers' interests. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Japan downgraded its economic growth forecast. Germany's industrial output decreased significantly in June [11][12]. 2. Commodity Futures - related Information - On August 7, international precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.44%, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.66%. US oil and Brent crude oil futures fell due to OPEC's production increase [12]. - London base metals mostly rose, but copper fell slightly. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On August 7, index futures showed different trends. On August 8, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are expected to be strongly volatile. For the whole of August 2025, these contracts are also expected to be strong or strongly volatile [14][15][16][18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 7, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rose slightly. On August 8, the ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2509 and the thirty - year contract TL2509 are expected to be strongly volatile [38][40][44]. Gold Futures - On August 7, the gold futures contract AU2510 rose slightly. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to be strongly and widely volatile. On August 8, AU2510 is expected to be strongly volatile [44][45]. Silver Futures - On August 7, the silver futures contract AG2510 rose. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to be strongly and widely volatile. On August 8, AG2510 is expected to be strongly volatile [50][51]. Copper Futures - On August 7, the copper futures contract CU2509 rose slightly. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, CU2509 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [56]. Aluminum Futures - On August 7, the aluminum futures contract AL2509 rose slightly. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, AL2509 is expected to be weakly volatile [62]. Alumina Futures - On August 7, the alumina futures contract AO2509 fell. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, AO2509 is expected to be weakly volatile [67]. Zinc Futures - On August 7, the zinc futures contract ZN2509 rose. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, ZN2509 is expected to be weakly volatile [71]. Industrial Silicon Futures - On August 7, the industrial silicon futures contract SI2511 showed a slight decline. On August 8, it is expected to be strongly volatile [75]. Polycrystalline Silicon Futures - On August 7, the polycrystalline silicon futures contract PS2511 fell. On August 8, it is expected to be strongly volatile [76]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On August 7, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2511 rose. On August 8, it is expected to be strongly volatile [79]. Rebar Futures - On August 7, the rebar futures contract RB2510 showed a slight decline. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, RB2510 is expected to be weakly volatile [82]. Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On August 7, the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510 fell. On August 8, it is expected to be weakly volatile [88][89]. Iron Ore Futures - On August 7, the iron ore futures contract I2509 fell slightly. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, I2509 is expected to be weakly volatile [90]. Coking Coal Futures - On August 7, the coking coal futures contract JM2601 rose. On August 8, it is expected to fluctuate widely and try to break through resistance levels [98][99]. Glass Futures - On August 7, the glass futures contract FG509 fell. On August 8, it is expected to be weakly volatile [99]. Soda Ash Futures - On August 7, the soda ash futures contract SA601 fell. On August 8, it is expected to be weakly volatile [101]. Crude Oil Futures - On August 7, the crude oil futures contract SC2509 fell. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, SC2509 is expected to be weakly volatile [103]. PTA Futures - On August 7, the PTA futures contract TA509 fell. On August 8, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [109][110]. PVC Futures - On August 7, the PVC futures contract V2509 showed a slight decline. On August 8, it is expected to be weakly volatile [111].

Group 1 - The main contract for propylene futures experienced a slight decline of 0.28%, with a current price of 6481.0 yuan, having reached a low of 6479.0 yuan during the trading session [1][2] - Market analysts from Zhonghui Futures suggest a price range for propylene at 6350-6550 yuan, indicating a bearish outlook due to weak downstream demand and increasing inventory levels [2] - According to Ruida Futures, China's propylene production for the week was 1.1636 million tons, a decrease of 0.77 thousand tons from the previous week, reflecting a decline of 0.66% [3] Group 2 - Downstream capacity utilization rates for propylene varied, with the highest increase seen in n-butanol production, while phenol-ketone production saw the largest decline due to maintenance shutdowns [3] - The overall market sentiment for propylene remains weak, with short-term support at 6400 yuan and resistance at 6600 yuan, as the industry is currently in a consumption off-season [3]

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 08 月 07 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 6, 2025, and also gives the expected trend of some futures in August 2025. It also provides macro - news, commodity - related information, and the performance of various futures on August 5, 2025 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Performance on August 5, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 all showed a trend of opening slightly higher and rising, with varying degrees of increase [14][15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract falling [37]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, etc. showed different trends of rising or falling, with some showing weak rebounds and some showing downward pressure [42][48][52]. 2. Futures Market Forecast on August 6, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4100 and 4122 points, and support levels at 4080 and 4060 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year T2509 and 30 - year TL2509 are expected to be strongly volatile [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, silver, and polycrystalline silicon are expected to be strongly volatile; copper, aluminum, and other metals, as well as glass, soda ash, etc. are expected to be weakly volatile; industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][3]. 3. Futures Market Forecast in August 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM are all expected to be strongly volatile [18][19]. - **Commodity Futures**: Gold and silver are expected to be strongly and widely volatile; copper, aluminum, and iron ore are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; rebar is expected to be weakly and widely volatile; crude oil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [42][52][77][85]. 4. Macro - News - China is implementing a series of policies, including free pre - school education, financial support for new industrialization, and health - environment promotion [8]. - The US trade deficit has shrunk, and economic data such as the ISM non - manufacturing index are mixed; Japan may raise interest rates; the eurozone's comprehensive PMI has rebounded slightly [9][10][11]. 5. Commodity - Related Information - The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products has issued an initiative for the photovoltaic industry; the trading volume and turnover of the domestic futures market in July have increased significantly [11]. - On August 5, international oil prices fell, precious metals rose, and base metals showed mixed trends [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillatory strength. The price of methanol is affected by coal price rebound and its own supply - demand structure [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term trend of methanol 2509 is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and slightly stronger, with an overall view of running strongly [1]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.46% to 2392 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend on Wednesday [5]. Driving Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. - The rebound of domestic coal futures prices drives the methanol futures 2509 contract to show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 5, 2025, including the bias towards strong or weak oscillations, and provides resistance and support levels for each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 4, 2025, the stock index futures IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 all showed a trend of opening slightly lower and then rising. The broader market also opened lower and closed higher, with the ChiNext 50 leading the gains. A - share trading volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The number of new A - share accounts in July increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Brokerage institutions are generally optimistic about the market outlook [13][15][16]. - On August 4, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures both opened higher, with the ten - year showing a slight upward trend and the thirty - year continuing to rebound. The central bank conducted 5448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 490 billion yuan. The short - term Shibor rates declined. The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated since April, reaching a new high in July [35][39][40]. - On August 4, 2025, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.85% and COMEX silver futures up 1.40%. International oil prices fluctuated downward, with the U.S. oil main contract down 1.62% and the Brent crude main contract down 1.38%. London base metals mostly rose, with LME zinc up 0.99%, LME copper up 0.81%, and LME nickel up 0.79%. The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose, and the U.S. dollar index also rose slightly [9][10][12]. 2. Futures Market Forecast for August 5, 2025 Stock Index Futures - IF2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 4087 and 4100 points and support levels at 4052 and 4035 points [2]. - IH2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 2785 and 2800 points and support levels at 2770 and 2763 points [2]. - IC2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 6215 and 6275 points and support levels at 6169 and 6130 points [2]. - IM2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 6700 and 6750 points and support levels at 6642 and 6590 points [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The ten - year treasury bond futures T2509 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance levels at 108.60 and 108.65 yuan and support levels at 108.43 and 108.37 yuan [2]. - The thirty - year treasury bond futures TL2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 119.6 and 120.0 yuan, with support levels at 119.1 and 118.9 yuan [2]. Precious Metal Futures - The gold futures AU2510 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 786.8 and 791.2 yuan/gram, with support levels at 781.8 and 778.5 yuan/gram [2]. - The silver futures AG2510 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 9100 and 9166 yuan/kg, with support levels at 9008 and 8985 yuan/kg [3]. Base Metal Futures - The copper futures CU2509 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78200 and 78000 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78600 and 78900 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum futures AL2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 20370 and 20300 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 20540 and 20600 yuan/ton [3]. - The alumina futures AO2509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 3162 and 3121 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3247 and 3274 yuan/ton [3]. - The zinc futures ZN2509 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 22350 and 22420 yuan/ton and support levels at 22220 and 22130 yuan/ton [3]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The industrial silicon futures SI2511 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 8220 and 8100 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 8450 and 8500 yuan/ton [3]. - The polysilicon futures PS2511 is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support levels at 47700 and 47100 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 49400 and 50400 yuan/ton [3]. - The lithium carbonate futures LC2511 is likely to oscillate in a wide range, with support levels at 67900 and 66900 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 71100 and 72200 yuan/ton [4]. - The rebar futures RB2510 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 3174 and 3160 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 3224 and 3236 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil futures HC2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance levels at 3449 and 3473 yuan/ton and support levels at 3400 and 3366 yuan/ton [4]. - The iron ore futures I2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 800 and 804 yuan/ton, with support levels at 790 and 787 yuan/ton [4]. - The coking coal futures JM2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1120 and 1092 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1166 and 1180 yuan/ton [4]. - The glass futures FG509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1050 and 1032 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1102 and 1112 yuan/ton [4]. - The soda ash futures SA509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 1225 and 1206 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1265 and 1285 yuan/ton [6]. - The crude oil futures SC2509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 502 and 500 yuan/barrel and resistance levels at 514 and 519 yuan/barrel [6]. - The PTA futures TA509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 4664 and 4644 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 4698 and 4720 yuan/ton [6]. - The PVC futures V2509 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support levels at 4922 and 4900 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 5020 and 5046 yuan/ton [6]. - The methanol futures MA509 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support levels of 2372 and 2359 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2385 and 2393 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Futures - The soybean meal futures M2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 3050 and 3071 yuan/ton, with support levels at 3014 and 3000 yuan/ton [6]. - The palm oil futures P2509 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 8926 and 9000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 8800 and 8770 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Macro - economic Information - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk - based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For overseas remittances over 5000 yuan or the equivalent of 1000 US dollars, the remitter's identity needs to be verified. Payment institutions need to register when selling prepaid cards over 10,000 yuan at one time [7]. - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 3 billion yuan, the MLF had a net investment of 100 billion yuan, the PSL had a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan, the short - term reverse repurchase had a net investment of 188 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase had a net investment of 200 billion yuan. There were no open - market treasury bond transactions in July [7]. - In the first half of the year, China's service import and export volume reached 3.88726 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 1.6883 trillion yuan, up 15%, and imports were 2.19896 trillion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit was 510.66 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 152.21 billion yuan [7]. - Experts and institutions expect the new social financing in July to increase year - on - year. Wang Qing believes that the new social financing in July will be about 1.7 trillion yuan, continuing the large - scale year - on - year increase from the previous month. It is expected that the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements again around the end of the third quarter [8]. - Beijing has introduced 16 measures to promote the development of future industries, focusing on areas such as urban transportation and medical health, and exploring the opening of application demonstration scenarios [8]. - Shanghai has issued policies to support enterprises in basic research, with a maximum one - time subsidy of 10 million yuan and tax incentives for basic research [8]. - Hainan has proposed 20 specific measures to accelerate the cultivation of three future industries: seed industry, deep - sea, and aerospace, and to strengthen tropical characteristic high - efficiency agriculture. The goal is that by 2027, the added value of the four leading industries will account for about 70% of GDP [8]. - U.S. President Trump said that India is reselling a large amount of Russian oil in the open market for huge profits and will significantly increase the tariffs imposed on India [9]. - The EU will suspend the implementation of the tariff counter - measures against the U.S. that were originally scheduled to take effect on August 7 for six months and continue to cooperate with the U.S. to finalize a joint statement on trade [9]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts within the year are still an appropriate adjustment [9].

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the July 29, 2025, futures main contract market trends. Index futures will fluctuate and consolidate; ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will probably fluctuate strongly; gold futures will likely fluctuate weakly; some industrial product futures such as copper, aluminum, and silver will fluctuate and consolidate; some futures like alumina, rebar, and hot - rolled coil will likely fluctuate strongly; while futures of coke, glass, and soda ash will probably fluctuate weakly; crude oil futures will likely fluctuate strongly [2][3][4][5]. - The report also provides macro - news, commodity futures information, and analyzes the July 28, 2025, market trends of various futures contracts, including index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7][11][13]. Summary by Category Macro - news - National leaders made important instructions on flood prevention and disaster relief work [7]. - Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm, aiming to implement the consensus reached in previous meetings [7]. - The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was officially announced, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year starting from January 1, 2025 [8]. - Changhe Group in Hong Kong is considering inviting a Chinese strategic investor to participate in the Panama Canal port business transaction, and the Chinese government will regulate it in accordance with the law [8]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the integration of urban and rural development and protecting the rights of rural migrants [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including promoting consumer goods and emerging industries [9]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation aimed to improve market supervision systems and enhance safety supervision capabilities [9]. - Nine departments jointly issued a plan to rectify heavy - metal environmental safety hazards from 2025 - 2030 [9]. - The State Taxation Administration reported on the investigation of tax evasion cases by online anchors and cases of fraudulent tax incentives [9]. - Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement [10]. - US President Trump mentioned potential tariffs on imports and his stance on Russia - Ukraine relations [10]. - The US Treasury increased the federal borrowing forecast for the quarter [10]. - Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement is determined, details remain to be discussed [10]. - The European Central Bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs [10]. - The German government will approve the 2026 budget draft with a record 126.7 billion euro investment [11]. Commodity Futures Information - Domestic industrial product futures saw a significant correction, with six main contracts including coke, glass, and soda ash hitting the daily limit down, and over 10 varieties such as alumina and polysilicon falling more than 3%. At night, the black - metal sector generally declined [11]. - The US - EU agreement and OPEC + production increase boosted oil prices, with US crude and Brent crude rising 2.79% and 2.87% respectively [11]. - International precious - metal futures generally closed lower on July 28, affected by the Thailand - Cambodia cease - fire agreement [12]. - Most London base metals closed lower on July 28, influenced by the Fed's policy and Sino - US trade uncertainties [12]. - Oil traders expect OPEC + to approve a significant production increase this weekend [12]. - Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price of crude oil for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month [12]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated on July 28, and the US dollar index rose [12][13]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On July 28, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures showed different trends, with some rising slightly and some falling slightly. It is expected that on July 29, index futures will fluctuate and consolidate, and in July 2025, they will likely fluctuate strongly [13][14][15][18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 28, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rose. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. It is expected that on July 29, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will probably fluctuate strongly [38][40]. Gold Futures - On July 28, the main contract of gold futures fell slightly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of gold futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [43]. Silver Futures - On July 28, the main contract of silver futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of silver futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [49][50]. Copper Futures - On July 28, the main contract of copper futures fell slightly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of copper futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [53]. Aluminum Futures - On July 28, the main contract of aluminum futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of aluminum futures will fluctuate widely, and on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [58]. Alumina Futures - On July 28, the main contract of alumina futures fell significantly. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of alumina futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [62]. Industrial Silicon Futures - On July 28, the main contract of industrial silicon futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly and widely [67][68]. Polysilicon Futures - On July 28, the main contract of polysilicon futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate widely [68]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [70]. Rebar Futures - On July 28, the main contract of rebar futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of rebar futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [73]. Hot - rolled Coil Futures - On July 28, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [78]. Iron Ore Futures - On July 28, the main contract of iron ore futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of iron ore futures will likely fluctuate strongly, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [80]. Coke Futures - On July 28, the main contract of coke futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [85][86]. Glass Futures - On July 28, the main contract of glass futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [87]. Soda Ash Futures - On July 28, the main contract of soda ash futures hit the daily limit down. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will likely fluctuate weakly [90]. Crude Oil Futures - On July 28, the main contract of crude oil futures fell. It is expected that in July 2025, the main continuous contract of crude oil futures will likely fluctuate strongly and widely, and on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [92]. PTA Futures - On July 28, the main contract of PTA futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will probably fluctuate strongly [96]. PVC Futures - On July 28, the main contract of PVC futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [98]. Methanol Futures - On July 28, the main contract of methanol futures fell. It is expected that on July 29, the main contract will fluctuate and consolidate [100].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Both soybean meal and soybean oil futures are in a wide - range oscillation phase. For soybean meal, factors like high - level oil mill crushing, limited terminal feed demand, and uncertainties in US soybean产区 weather and Sino - US trade relations contribute to this situation. For soybean oil, high oil mill operating rates, low market transactions, and supportive policies from palm oil - producing regions and the US biofuel policy lead to the wide - range oscillation [7][28]. - It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soybean meal and soybean oil futures [7][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. In the 29th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3055 million tons with an operating rate of 64.81%, and the soybean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, a 12.66% increase from the previous week. The high - level crushing leads to inventory accumulation, and the terminal feed demand increment is limited. However, uncertainties in US soybean产区 weather, Sino - US trade relations, and strong Brazilian discounts support the cost of soybean meal. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was in an upward channel, with a strong long - bias in funds. The M2509 contract was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, operating in the range of 2920 - 3150 [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is in a sideways stage, with a slight long - bias in funds. The M2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, operating in the range of 2920 - 3150 [11]. - **Variety Diagnosis**: The main force is slightly long - biased, the capital energy is basically stable, and the risk of a market reversal is high [14]. - **Related Data**: The report provides data on soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][22]. Soybean Oil Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. In the 29th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 43,800 tons, an increase of 190 tons from the previous week, and the commercial inventory in key regions was 1.0918 million tons, a 42,400 - ton increase from the previous week. High oil mill operating rates lead to increased output and inventory, while market transactions are light. However, the warming macro - sentiment and policies from palm oil - producing regions and the US biofuel policy support the market. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in an upward channel, with a long - bias in funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to maintain a relatively strong operation in the short - term, operating in the range of 7950 - 8300 [31]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is in a sideways stage, with a strong short - bias in funds. The Y2509 contract may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, operating in the range of 7950 - 8280 [31]. - **Variety Diagnosis**: The main force is strongly short - biased, the main capital is flowing out slightly, and the risk of a market reversal is relatively high [35]. - **Related Data**: The report provides data on soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [41][42][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Soda ash - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of composition: July 23, 2025 [1] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Contract Quotes - On July 23, 2025, the soda ash futures faced pressure and pulled back. The opening price of Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) was 1376 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1394 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1338 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 3.307 billion hands, an increase of 197 million hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.037 billion hands, a decrease of 37.3 million hands from the previous day [2] 2.2 Variety Prices - The report provides the opening and highest prices of Soda Ash 2508, Soda Ash 2509, and Soda Ash 2601 contracts on July 23, 2025 [5] 3. Spot Market - The report presents the domestic soda ash price summary table on July 23, 2025, showing price changes compared to July 22, 2025 [6] 4. Influencing Factors 4.1 Policy - related - Policy expectations such as the steady - growth plan for the building materials industry and the "city - specific policies" in the real estate sector, combined with low inventory, have driven market sentiment up [7] 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The weekly output was 568,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. However, summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and the release progress of new capacity from Yuanxing was slower than expected. - Demand side: The daily melting volume of float glass was 168,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.76%, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash procurement increased [8] 4.3 Technical Analysis - The price of the Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) contract deviated from the 5 - day moving average today, and there may be a need for technical repair. However, the trend indicator still maintained a bullish signal, indicating that the short - term trend is still upward, but the repair demand may cause the price to pull back to some extent [9] 5. Market Outlook - The current soda ash futures price may be supported by policies and maintenance factors and remain in a relatively strong state. In the long run, Yuanxing's second - phase 2.8 million - ton capacity is expected to be put into production in August, which will increase market supply, and the soda ash futures price may face valuation pressure. In addition, if the inventory inflection point appears, that is, the inventory starts to rise, it may also lead to a price pullback. Traders need to beware of the short - selling risk brought about by the accelerated release of Yuanxing's capacity or the increase in inventory [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Based on macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main contracts. Most contracts are expected to show a strong or weak shock trend, with specific resistance and support levels provided for each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast Highlights - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4090 and 4122 points and support levels at 4065 and 4046 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate weakly. The ten - year T2509 has support at 108.65 and 108.60 yuan and resistance at 108.79 and 108.83 yuan; the thirty - year TL2509 has support at 119.7 and 119.5 yuan and resistance at 120.1 and 120.3 yuan [3]. - Gold and silver futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. Silver futures may hit a new high since listing. Gold futures AU2510 has resistance at 789.9 and 794.9 yuan/gram and support at 783.5 and 781.8 yuan/gram; silver futures AG2510 has resistance at 9450 and 9500 yuan/kg and support at 9300 and 9273 yuan/kg [3]. - Base metal futures such as copper, aluminum, and zinc generally show a strong or wide - range shock trend, with corresponding resistance and support levels provided [3][4]. - Industrial product futures like industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly, while some contracts like glass and soda ash are also predicted to have a strong shock trend [4][5]. - Energy futures: Crude oil futures are likely to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract SC2509 having support at 502 and 500 yuan/barrel and resistance at 512 and 516 yuan/barrel [7]. - Agricultural product futures: Soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, and natural rubber futures are likely to fluctuate strongly [8]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24. President Xi Jinping will meet them, and Premier Li Qiang will co - host the 25th China - EU Leaders' Meeting [9]. - The "Housing Rental Regulations" will come into effect on September 15, 2025, aiming to standardize the housing rental market [9]. - China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. The 1 - year variety is reported at 3.0%, and the over - 5 - year variety is at 3.5%. Market institutions expect a further decline in the second half of the year [9]. - The first half of 2025 saw stable and positive economic performance. Fiscal policy will continue to play a proactive role in the second half of the year [10]. - The EU's sanctions list against Chinese enterprises and financial institutions has been responded to by China, which urges the EU to stop the wrong practice [10]. - The total electricity consumption in June was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The cumulative electricity consumption from January to June was 4841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [10]. - The pilot rules for cross - border asset management in the Hainan Free Trade Port have been released, with an initial pilot scale limit of 10 billion yuan [10]. - In the 27th Japanese Senate election, the ruling coalition lost its majority in the Senate. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru will continue to serve, but the opposition may propose a no - confidence motion [11]. - Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to policy risks [11]. - The "OBBBA" bill passed by the Trump administration will increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [11]. - The EU may hold a meeting this week to prepare for the situation of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool" [12]. - The EU is formulating a new bill requiring large enterprises and car rental companies to switch to electric vehicle procurement from 2030, which will affect about 60% of new car sales in the EU [12]. - Hungary is in talks with Serbia and Russia to build a new oil pipeline, which is expected to be operational in 2027 [13]. - The UK government has launched a public consultation on the licensing plan for autonomous passenger services, aiming for the launch of autonomous taxis and other services in spring 2026 [13]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that the listing benchmark price of the first - batch of propylene futures contracts on July 22 is 6350 yuan/ton [13]. - In June, global alumina production was 6.045 million tons. China's alumina production is expected to be 3.625 million tons [13]. - On July 21, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.55% and COMEX silver futures up 2.02%. International oil prices slightly declined [14]. - On July 21, London base metals closed higher across the board. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 2 points, and the central parity rate was down 24 points [14][15]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On July 21, the CSI 300 stock index futures main contract IF2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 4064.8 points, up 0.73%. It approached the resistance at 4070 points [15]. - The Shanghai 50 stock index futures main contract IH2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly stronger, and closed at 2771.2 points, up 0.29% [16]. - The CSI 500 stock index futures main contract IC2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 6055.6 points, up 1.04%. It broke through the 6050 - point resistance [16]. - The CSI 1000 stock index futures main contract IM2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 6453.2 points, up 0.93%. It broke through the 6460 - point resistance [17]. - The stock market on July 21 showed a positive trend, with most indexes rising. The A - share trading volume increased to 1.73 trillion yuan [18]. - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68%, and the number of IPOs and fundraising amount increased significantly [19]. - US and European stock markets showed mixed trends on July 21. The report predicts that stock index futures will fluctuate strongly in July 2025 and on July 22, with specific resistance and support levels provided [19][20][21]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 21, the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 opened lower, fluctuated weakly, and closed at 108.760 yuan, down 0.05%. The 30 - year main contract also declined [38]. - The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 21, with a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [38]. - The report predicts that the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures will fluctuate weakly on July 22, with specific support and resistance levels [39][43]. Precious Metal Futures - On July 21, the gold futures main contract AU2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.82%. It is expected to fluctuate widely in July 2025 and strongly on July 22 [43][44]. - The silver futures main contract AG2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated weakly on July 21, but showed strong upward momentum in the night session. It is expected to break through new highs on July 22 and fluctuate strongly in July 2025 [50][52]. Base Metal Futures - On July 21, copper, aluminum, zinc, and other base metal futures generally showed upward trends. The report provides their closing prices, price changes, and resistance and support levels, as well as the expected trends in July 2025 and on July 22 [57][61][71]. Industrial Product Futures - Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other industrial product futures showed strong upward trends on July 21. The report predicts their trends on July 22, including the likelihood of approaching resistance levels or breaking through [80][81]. Energy Futures - On July 21, the crude oil futures main contract SC2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated downward, and closed at 512.3 yuan/barrel, up 0.23% (down 0.68% based on the closing price). It is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 22 and strongly and widely in July 2025 [106]. Agricultural Product Futures - On July 21, soybean meal and natural rubber futures showed upward trends. The report predicts that soybean meal futures will fluctuate weakly on July 22, while natural rubber futures will fluctuate strongly [116][118].