Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market experienced a decline, with long-term bonds falling more than short-term ones. The outlook suggests that market risk appetite is increasing following a court ruling against Trump's global tariff policy, indicating a potential shift to a volatile mode for treasury futures [16][5]. - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the ChiNext index rising by 1.37%. The total trading volume reached 1.21 trillion, an increase of 0.18 trillion from the previous day, with over 4,400 stocks rising. The market is expected to enter a volatile phase with rotation among technology, dividend, and consumer sectors [19][21]. - The U.S. stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down by 0.58%, Nasdaq by 0.51%, and S&P 500 by 0.56%. The rising U.S. Treasury yields are a concern, and the narrative of recession may become a focal point for market trading in the future [24][25]. Group 2: Currency Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1888, a decrease of 25 basis points from the previous close. The RMB appreciated significantly due to favorable impacts from U.S.-China trade relations. The offshore RMB shows signs of strengthening, with expectations of reaching around 7.1 [28][29]. Group 3: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.13%, with mixed performance across sectors. Oil, polyester, and steel saw slight increases, while coal, building materials, and precious metals led the declines. The overall technical structure of the commodity market remains bearish, suggesting a cautious approach [31][32].

金十数据5月28日讯，安联研究分析师在一份报告中指出，期限溢价（投资者持有长期债券而非短期债 券所寻求的额外收益率）正在上升，且潜在风险正呈现全球化特征。他们表示，受收益率曲线超长期端 推动，全球债券市场已显著陡峭化。分析师称："今年以来，30年期国债收益率飙升30-80个基点，而 10-30年期利差扩大20-30个基点。"这一现象源于市场对结构性不确定性（如上行通胀风险、地缘政治 紧张局势及财政风险加剧）的同步定价，导致期限溢价重新调整。美国国债在超长期债券领域的主导地 位放大了这一趋势。 安联研究：结构性不确定性驱动期限溢价全球范围内攀升 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a temporary relief in the U.S. long-term treasury bond market, driven by a significant drop in the yields of 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, attributed to potential adjustments in Japan's debt issuance strategy [1][3][4] - The recent rebound in the global bond market is seen as a response to strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly a $690 billion two-year bond auction, following news of Japan's possible reduction in bond sales [3][4][6] - Despite the temporary easing of the bond sell-off, concerns regarding the fiscal health of developed nations, especially the growing U.S. fiscal deficit and rising debt service costs, are expected to exert continued pressure on long-term bond investors [3][7][8] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield experienced its largest single-day drop since March, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards long-term bonds, even if this trend is seen as short-lived [3][4][6] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions and Federal Reserve meeting minutes, as the Biden administration's significant debt issuance has raised the national debt to $36 trillion, contributing to high budget deficits and interest payments [10][12] - The concept of "term premium," which refers to the additional yield investors require for holding long-term bonds, is nearing its highest level since 2014, indicating heightened concerns over the sustainability of U.S. government debt [9][13]

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 头图 | AI生图 近期，美债收益率再次飙升，30年期美债收益率突破5%，10年期美债收益率突破4.6%。这波飙升背 后，可谓"内外夹击"。 首先，是信用评级的"警钟"。5月15日，国际三大评级机构之一的穆迪 （Moody's） 将美国主权信用 评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，理由是联邦债务规模和利息支付比例持续攀升，财政状况令人忧心； 接着是5月22日，由共和党主导的众议院以微弱优势通过了被称为"美丽大法案"的财政议案。名字虽 然动听，但代价不菲——根据国会预算办公室 （CBO） 的测算，这项法案预计将在未来十年新增约 4万亿美元联邦债务，无疑让市场对美国财政可持续性的担忧再度升级。 起因何在？ 5月19日，日本首相石破茂公开表示，日本财政状况"比希腊还糟糕"。数据显示，日本债务/GDP比率 已超250%，远高于希腊债务危机时的180%。 外围进一步催化了市场情绪—— 市场担忧在这场关税谈判中日元可能面临被动升值，也就是日元有 可能会继续加息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are capitalizing on a rare opportunity in the long-term U.S. Treasury bond market, with significant inflows into the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) amid concerns over U.S. debt trajectory [1][4] Group 1: Investment Trends - Over the past week, investors have poured $1.8 billion into TLT, making it the most inflow among 630 ETFs tracked by Bloomberg [1] - TLT has attracted approximately $49 billion over the past five years, despite a decline of over 40% during the same period [1] - The recent buying trend indicates that traders are betting that yields have risen enough to attract buyers and compensate for risks associated with long-term bonds [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Optimism surrounding U.S.-EU trade negotiations and Japan's potential adjustments to bond issuance have contributed to a rise in U.S. Treasury prices, pushing the 30-year bond yield below 5% [1] - TLT experienced a 1.7% increase in intraday trading, potentially marking its largest single-day gain since February [1] - Other ETFs, such as iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) and iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV), also saw significant inflows [4] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the current market sentiment has shifted from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic, with long-term bonds offering the greatest potential returns due to their sensitivity to interest rate changes [4][5] - The demand for downside protection in the options market indicates that traders remain cautious about further declines in long-term bonds [5] - The outlook for long-term bonds is contingent on fiscal conditions and the appropriateness of lending levels to a country with such a debt trajectory [5]

资深央行记者认为，尽管最近的美债收益率波动并不意味着市场恐慌或危机前兆，但它反映出金融市场 已经发生了某种根本性转变。 近日，《华尔街日报》记者格雷格·伊普（Greg Ip）发布了一篇关于全球债券市场变化的深度报道—— 《债券市场对华盛顿说：我们要让你付出代价》。作为长期关注货币政策和金融市场的专业记者，伊普 在央行报道领域拥有丰富的经验和独到见解。 文章的核心观点是，疫情前那个储蓄过剩、资金追逐债券的时代已经结束。现在，各国政府必须为借贷 付出更高的代价，而巨额预算赤字也变得更加危险。伊普特别强调，虽然这是一个全球性趋势，但美国 的情况尤其值得关注，因为其年度赤字可能突破2万亿美元，并有望达到3万亿美元，同时美元储备货币 地位也面临潜在冲击。 债券收益率上升背后的真相——不是通胀恐慌，而是供给冲击 伊普指出，要理解当前的债券市场动荡，不能仅仅看单一债券的表现，而需要观察不同期限债券之间的 相互作用。 自4月2日以来，2年期美债收益率仅上升了10个基点，而10年期收益率上升了35个基点，30年期收益率 更是上升了5个基点。 这种差异化的表现说明了什么？伊普写道： 所以，投资者并不担心通胀或美联储；他们只是希望 ...

星展集团：新加坡核心通货膨胀将在今年剩余时间保持温和 美国银行：美国消费者信用卡支出在5月初出现放缓 澳新银行预测显示，截至2025年底，印度央行预计将会实施三次降息操作；鉴于目前印度的通胀压力并 不显著，而经济增长却显得疲软，这可能会推动印度央行持续采取宽松的货币政策以刺激经济。倘若 2025年第一季度的GDP数据未能达到预期，印度央行可能不得不下调本财年6.5%的经济增长预期。 美国银行指出，美国消费者信用卡支出从3月同比增长1.1%放缓至4月下半月的同比增长1%。5月前两 周，支出增长持平，没有同比增长；鉴于征收关税和相应的价格上涨导致经济不确定性依然很高，分析 师继续密切关注消费者的反应。 万神殿宏观经济公司认为，美国消费增长的减缓可能引发经济步入"停滞"阶段，尽管衰退或许可以避 免。企业界预期消费者需求将会减弱，并已经开始减少招聘人数。 预计裁员的步伐将加快，新的招聘活动也将减少，特别是在关税导致的价格上涨开始生效之后，消费者 支出从高于平均水平转向低于平均水平。 阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家认为，美国消费疲软是影响美国经济前景的主要风险，物价上涨可能 导致美联储在更长时间内维持较高利率；如果美国 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of government bonds is facing significant challenges as "bond vigilantes" question excessive government spending and inflation prospects, leading to higher borrowing costs for governments in uncertain environments [1][2] - The recent auction of 20-year US Treasury bonds resulted in a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking a notable increase from the pre-issue rate and reflecting a decline in demand as evidenced by a drop in the bid-to-cover ratio [1][2] - Similar trends are observed in Japan, where the average bid-to-cover ratio for government bond auctions has decreased, indicating weak demand, with the 20-year bond auction showing the lowest participation since 2012 [2][5] Group 2 - The concept of "term premium" is highlighted as a key factor driving bond sell-offs, with the current term premium for US 10-year Treasuries estimated at 0.79%, which is considered low compared to historical levels during similar economic conditions [3][4] - Investors are reassessing their strategies in light of recent developments, with some shifting away from long-term bond investments due to concerns over fiscal policies and credit ratings [3][4] - The participation rate of foreign investors in US 30-year bond auctions has dropped to its lowest level since 2019, reflecting growing apprehension regarding US fiscal policies [4][5] Group 3 - The Japanese bond market is experiencing similar pressures, with rising yields on long-term bonds as investors anticipate potential interest rate hikes and reduced bond purchases by the Bank of Japan [5] - Germany is positioned to benefit from the global bond repricing process, as its debt-to-GDP ratio remains below 100%, making it an attractive option for investors seeking safety amid rising yields elsewhere [5]

美债收益率欧洲早盘走低，延续周四跌势 金十数据5月16日讯，美债收益率在欧洲早盘下跌，延续周四的趋势，因货币市场在本周疲弱的CPI数 据出炉后继续押注美联储降息。法国兴业银行利率策略师在一份报告中表示："市场继续消化美联储的 降息预期。"话虽如此，美债收益率曲线应会趋陡，因投资者消化期限溢价上升的影响，即更多收益率 投资者寻求持有长期美债，而非短期美债。"期限溢价可能会继续扩大，美联储将在今年晚些时候降 息。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that despite recent market gains and a strong dollar, continuing to chase these gains is no longer attractive due to weakening economic data and rising term premium risks, which may lead to market adjustments [1] - Citi's report highlights that the reduction in DOGE spending and declining tariff revenues could trigger a surge in term premium, potentially resulting in a "triple whammy" of falling U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a weakening dollar [1][10] - The report indicates that the upcoming labor market report in May may start to reflect the negative impacts of recent policies, which could elevate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 50 basis points back to 100 basis points [5] Group 2 - Citi emphasizes the need for investors to connect the policies of the Trump administration, noting that the DOGE plan aimed to cut costs while tariffs were intended to increase revenues, but the chaotic implementation has led to a potential increase in fiscal deficits [6] - The report expresses concern over the high level of U.S. term premium, with expectations that the 30-year swap spread will narrow further to -95 basis points later this year [6][10] - Historical data suggests that the state of rising term premium may persist, especially as budget issues come to the forefront, compounded by low foreign demand for U.S. debt, which could exacerbate fiscal risks [10] Group 3 - The analysis suggests that the current dollar rebound presents an opportunity to sell dollars at better prices, with a belief that the dollar's weakness this year is cyclical rather than structural [13] - Analysts are particularly focused on the attractiveness of long positions in Swiss francs as a safe haven, while noting that the Swiss National Bank cannot intervene in tariff issues without being perceived as currency manipulation [16] - Investors are advised to closely monitor whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks the critical 5% level and whether the yield curve steepens, as these could signal increased term premium risks and potential adjustments in risk assets and a weakening dollar [18]