Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that institutions are optimistic about the continuation of policies and improvement in liquidity, with confidence in the long-term revaluation trend of Chinese assets [2][3] - Major technology sectors are favored for investment, with various institutions highlighting different opportunities within this space [5][6] Group 2 - Liquidity is expected to drive continued market growth, with significant improvements noted in domestic fiscal policies and market liquidity [3][4] - As of August 27, the average daily trading volume of A-shares exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, marking a historical high since 2010 [3] - The focus for the market will shift towards whether corporate performance can keep pace with valuation and sentiment recovery in the fourth quarter [4] Group 3 - The "big technology" sector is anticipated to maintain a structural market characteristic similar to that of the Nasdaq, with a long-term focus on resource optimization [6] - Analysts from various institutions are also looking at consumer and manufacturing sectors for potential investment opportunities, with a focus on cyclical recovery and long-term growth logic [7]

Consumption & Policy - National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to implement measures to boost consumption and stimulate market vitality [1] - NDRC to steadily implement consumer goods trade-in programs and accelerate policy formulation in areas such as first-release economy, digital consumption, and AI plus consumption [1] - Focus on promoting service consumption in areas like culture and tourism, sports events, and camping [1] - China aims to avoid disorderly competition in the development of artificial intelligence [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, with Trump's return to the White House, U.S. policies have shifted significantly, increasing market attention to U.S. economic and financial trends. The report aims to build an analysis framework for tracking the U.S. economy, focusing on the core economic indicators of the U.S. household sector [2][11]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to U.S. GDP reached a record - high of 4.99%, mainly driven by a sharp decrease in imports. However, after excluding the contribution of net exports, the real GDP growth rate was - 2.0%, indicating a severe decline in domestic demand [28]. - The significant downward revision of non - farm data may be due to large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year, which affected data collection efficiency and increased the risk of statistical errors. There may also be other systematic factors [3][125]. - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In the optimistic, benchmark, and pessimistic scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4]. - In the "stagflation - like" situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. Powell signaled a 25bp interest rate cut in September, but the evolution of non - farm employment and inflation data in August needs to be verified. The report maintains the benchmark assumption of two 25bp interest rate cuts in September and December [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Five - Sector Perspective on the U.S. Economy Observation Starting Point - The report divides the U.S. economy into five core sectors: government, enterprise, household, finance, and overseas sectors. The household and enterprise sectors form the core "employment - consumption" cycle, and the government participates in resource reallocation [12]. 3.2 U.S. Q2 GDP: The "Apparent Prosperity" Driven by Net Exports - The U.S. GDP is calculated and released by the BEA. There are three estimates for each quarter, and annual overhauls are conducted in July. The GDP data is also seasonally adjusted [16]. - From 2020 - 2023, the U.S. GDP revision was large due to the impact of the pandemic. Since H2 2024, the revision has gradually converged, but the "reciprocal tariff" policy may cause the revision to increase again [17]. - Personal consumption expenditure is the most important component of U.S. GDP, with a long - term upward - trending share and a significant driving effect on economic growth. Net exports have a continuous negative contribution to GDP growth [24]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP reached a record high, mainly due to a 15.1% month - on - month decrease in imports and a 1.7% increase in exports, narrowing the trade deficit by 50.8%. However, domestic demand declined seriously after excluding the contribution of net exports [28]. 3.3 Consumption Research Framework Based on Household Income and Expenditure - The U.S. consumption research can start from the income and expenditure of residents. Income is divided into five parts, with laborer compensation accounting for 57% and transfer payment income accounting for 18% in June 2025 [32]. - Personal disposable income is obtained by subtracting government social security contributions and personal current taxes from total income. From August 2023 to June 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of personal disposable income decreased significantly, weakening residents' consumption ability and confidence [33]. - U.S. personal consumption expenditure is divided into goods and services consumption. Since 2022, service consumption has made a greater contribution to GDP. In June 2025, the actual personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with goods consumption increasing by 2.9% and service consumption increasing by 1.7% [38][40]. - Retail sales data shows that in June 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month retail sales increased, with miscellaneous goods retailers being the main driving force [45]. - The U.S. personal savings rate has fallen to 4.5%, lower than the pre - pandemic average. In the future, the savings rate may continue to rise, suppressing short - term consumption growth [51]. - Third - party data such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Redbook Retail Sales Index can be used to verify U.S. consumption conditions. The overall consumption growth in the U.S. is slowing down [53][61]. 3.4 How to Track U.S. Employment after the "Non - Farm" Data Distortion 3.4.1 Employment Research Framework Based on Supply and Demand Sides - There are many employment - related data in the U.S., including JOLTS, CES, ADP, CPS, and UI. These data have different sample scopes, core indicators, advantages, and frequencies [63]. - JOLTS provides supplementary information on the demand side of the labor market. The job vacancy rate reflects the shortage of labor. Since 2022, the gap between job vacancies and hiring has narrowed, and the resignation rate has continued to decline [67][73][76]. - CES (non - farm data) has a wide coverage. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs was lower than expected, and the data for May and June was significantly revised downward. The hourly wage of the private sector increased, increasing inflation pressure [78][86]. - ADP data is based on real payroll records of private - sector employees, covering more than 25 million employees. It is released two days earlier than CES and can be used to perceive private - sector employment trends [91]. - CPS is a household - based survey that provides information on labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other indicators. In July, the labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [93][104]. - The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report provides high - frequency data on initial and continued claims for unemployment benefits, which can be used to predict economic inflection points [108]. 3.4.2 How Credible is the Non - Farm Data? - In May - June this year, the non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, and the deviation of the revision reached a new high since 2010. The reasons given by the BLS are insufficient to fully explain the large - scale revision [116]. - It is more likely that large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year affected data collection efficiency, and there may be other systematic factors. The credibility of non - farm employment data has declined, and multiple independent data should be used for cross - verification [125]. 3.5 U.S. Inflation Monitoring and Tariff Impact Assessment 3.5.1 Inflation Status Monitoring and Expectation Analysis Framework - The report analyzes U.S. inflation from two aspects: status monitoring (focusing on CPI and PCE) and expectation analysis (introducing BEI and 5Y - 5Y BEI) [126]. - CPI and PCE are two core consumer inflation indicators. PCE is generally lower than CPI because of its chain - type update and wider coverage. The Fed prefers PCE [126][127]. - Core services are the main driver of U.S. inflation. In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of service CPI was 2.18%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.18% [130]. 3.5.2 Import Structure Split and Tariff Calculation: U.S. PCE May Face Phased Upward Pressure - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In different scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Export Throughput Maintains Resilience, Price Trends Diverge [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 - Analysts: Zhang Jiqiang, Wu Jing, Wu Yuhang - Contact: Li Zihao Core Viewpoints - In the third week of August, external demand showed high throughput year-on-year, but freight rates were weak with a widening decline. The real estate market had mixed performance in transactions, with new and second-hand housing sales continuing to decline year-on-year, and housing prices yet to stabilize. On the production side, the industrial freight volume was good, coal prices rose, and production maintained a differentiated resilience. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand improved marginally, while black metal supply and demand were weak. In the consumption sector, travel remained resilient, and automobile consumption increased slightly. Prices of crude oil were significantly affected by external factors, and the fundamentals restricted black metal prices, while Powell's dovish signals supported copper prices [2]. Summary by Category Consumption - Travel maintained a high level, with increases in subway ridership, congestion delay index, and flight operation rates similar to the previous year. Automobile consumption increased slightly, textile consumption recovered, and express delivery pick-up volume remained high [3]. Real Estate - Real estate transactions were differentiated. New housing transactions were basically flat, with second-tier cities leading. Second-hand housing transactions recovered, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu. The listing price and quantity of second-hand housing both decreased, and the land premium rate increased while land transactions decreased [4][6]. Production - Freight volume remained high, and the data of operating rates were differentiated. In the power sector, coal consumption increased, hydropower decreased, and coal prices rose. In the construction industry, the funds in place increased year-on-year, cement supply and demand improved, black metal supply and demand declined, and asphalt operating rates decreased [5][13][14]. External Demand - Port throughput remained high, but freight rates declined. The cumulative cargo throughput and container throughput of ports were at a high level. The RJ/CRB index increased year-on-year, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased, and international route freight rates weakened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of August increased by 7.62% year-on-year, and Vietnam's exports in the first half of August increased by 15.56% year-on-year [5]. Prices - The prices of agricultural products, crude oil, and cement increased, while the prices of black metals were differentiated, and the prices of non-ferrous metals and glass decreased. The increase in crude oil prices was due to geopolitical risks and increased demand, while the differentiation of black metal prices was affected by supply and demand and policies [20][21].

Group 1 - A-shares continue to show strength, with major indices reaching new highs, driven by strong performances in rare earth permanent magnets and non-ferrous metals, as well as active computing stocks [1] - The market's rise is attributed to two main factors: the dovish signals from the US Federal Reserve indicating a potential interest rate cut, and various positive news stimuli across sectors [1] - The total market turnover reached 31.411 trillion, an increase of 594.4 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,300 stocks rising [1] Group 2 - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant gains following the introduction of new regulations aimed at total quantity control of rare earth resource extraction and smelting, indicating a tightening supply and potential price increases [2] - The domestic smart computing infrastructure is expected to grow by over 40% by 2025, driven by the acceleration of smart computing center construction, creating new growth opportunities for related industries [3] Group 3 - Real estate stocks surged due to new policies in Shanghai that include reducing housing purchase restrictions and optimizing housing finance measures, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4][5] - The second quarter monetary policy report from the central bank emphasizes the need to maintain stability in the real estate market and improve financial systems [4] Group 4 - The white liquor sector is experiencing renewed activity, supported by ongoing demand for high-quality products and the upcoming consumption peak during traditional festivals [6]

ETF Market Overview - The overall performance of ETF products has been good in the past two weeks, with the largest increase seen in the Sci-Tech 50 ETF among major broad-based ETFs, and the technology sector ETF showing the highest growth among industry and thematic products [3][12] - The net outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs has slowed down, with net inflows observed in the Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000/2000 series ETFs, while the outflow from the CSI 300 and A series ETFs has also decelerated [3][13] - In the bond ETF sector, there has been significant inflow into government bond ETFs, convertible bond ETFs, and credit bond ETFs, while short-term and local government bond ETFs have shifted from net inflow to net outflow [3][18] ETF Fund Flow Analysis - As of August 22, 2025, 15 new ETFs were established in the past two weeks, with a total issuance of 10.12 billion shares, all of which are stock ETFs [3][22] - Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased significantly, with bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs rising by 207.63%, 101.55%, 63.74%, 28.88%, and 10.52% respectively [3][22] Thematic ETF Tracking - AI-themed ETFs have shown strong performance, with products tracking AI-related indices leading in returns over the past two weeks, achieving an average return of 17.55% and a net inflow of 2.145 billion yuan [3][28] - The technology sector ETFs have seen a shift from significant outflows at the beginning of the year to inflows since March, although recent weeks have shown a return to net outflows [3][18] - The renewable energy ETFs have transitioned from net outflows to net inflows, while dividend ETFs have shifted from net inflows to net outflows [3][18] Fund Management Scale Distribution - As of August 22, 2025, Huaxia Fund has the largest ETF scale at 842.794 billion yuan, with E Fund's ETF management scale expanding by over 300 billion yuan compared to the previous year [3][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ) is rated as a "buy" due to its strong growth in automotive electronics and AI server sectors, along with a steady recovery in industrial control and consumer fields, despite short-term pressure in the photovoltaic sector [2] - The overseas market is showing significant recovery, highlighted by the successful commissioning of the second phase of the factory in Vietnam [2] - The new employee stock ownership plan reflects the company's confidence in its development and enhances employee retention [2]

Market Outlook - The current market is approaching a bull market phase, with 4500 points seen as the true starting point for a bull market, while the current level around 3700 points is considered low and a potential "floor price" [1][3][4] - Systematic risks in the market are currently low, and investors are encouraged to adopt a "do not sell" strategy as the market trends towards a bull phase [4][5] Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on high-certainty stocks within their understanding, emphasizing long-term holding to mitigate market volatility [1][4] - The consumption sector, particularly leading companies in food and beverage, is expected to perform well due to their ability to navigate economic cycles and maintain controllable inventory levels [2][4][12] Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical sector, including innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine, is viewed as having significant growth potential driven by an aging population and increasing demand for chronic disease medications [9][11] - The valuation of consumer stocks is considered reasonable, with dividend yields surpassing those of some bank stocks, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [10][12] Cultural Factors - The white liquor sector is perceived as undervalued, with the enduring cultural significance of alcohol consumption suggesting continued demand [13][14] Market Comparisons - The Hong Kong stock market has shown stronger performance than the A-share market over the past year, indicating a synchronized upward trend towards a bull market [14] Technology Sector Perspective - While the technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, is recognized as a significant growth area, the uncertainty and rapid changes in this field lead to a cautious investment stance, as it conflicts with a long-term holding strategy [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, leading to increased investor confidence and accelerated fundraising activities in equity funds [1][3]. Group 1: Fundraising and Market Activity - Multiple equity funds have completed fundraising ahead of schedule, indicating high investor demand, with some funds raising their target amounts in just one day [2][3]. - The recent trend shows that over 60 equity funds have been established since August, with many new funds experiencing significant net asset value (NAV) growth shortly after inception [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Management and Investment Strategy - Fund managers are actively increasing their equity positions, with average stock holdings reaching high levels; ordinary equity funds have an average equity position of approximately 91.41% [4]. - The rapid deployment of capital by fund managers reflects a positive outlook on market conditions, which is expected to attract more incremental funds into the equity market [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Sector Focus - The market is currently driven by increased liquidity, with a preference for technology and small-cap stocks expected to outperform in the short term [5]. - Future investment strategies should focus on sectors with positive fundamental changes driven by policy, particularly technology, consumption, high-end manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals [6].

- The report does not include any quantitative models or factor construction details related to quantitative finance[1][2][3] - The content primarily focuses on fund performance, market trends, and ESG product tracking without discussing quantitative models or factors[4][5][6] - No specific formulas, construction processes, or backtesting results for quantitative models or factors are provided in the report[7][34][45]