从城市端看，首发经济正在成为衡量商业活力的重要指标。北京市商务局数据显示，2025年前11个月， 北京新增首店达960余家，其中中轴线成为众多首店布局的新选择。首店落地带来的"新供给"与"新体 验"正在撬动消费增量。从过往数据来看，吉林省商务厅数据显示，2025年上半年，吉林引进品牌首店 63家，吸引200余万人次打卡消费。 中央财经大学副教授刘春生对《证券日报》记者表示，从经济学视角看，首店经济通过新鲜感效应激活 潜在需求、倒逼供给优化、形成商圈集群联动等机制拉动消费，兼具创造新增消费与消费再分配双重作 用，既会因限定产品、特色服务唤醒消费者额外购买需求，也会吸引传统商圈、品牌的消费流向新场 景。 12月14日，商务部办公厅、中国人民银行办公厅及金融监管总局办公厅联合发布《关于加强商务和金融 协同更大力度提振消费的通知》（以下简称《通知》），提出强化商务和金融系统协作，引导金融机构 聚焦消费重点领域加大支持力度，助力提振和扩大消费。《通知》还明确了积极探索金融支持首发经济 等消费新业态新模式的有效举措。 首发经济主要是以开设首店，发布新产品，推出新业态、新模式、新服务、新技术的经济活动。 消费新动能的一个直 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that different stock markets do not move in unison, and understanding multiple markets can provide investors with more opportunities [2] - Global investment can significantly reduce volatility risk, suggesting that diversifying investments across different regions is beneficial [2] - A free course is offered to teach methods for investing in global stock markets through index funds, highlighting the potential for long-term gains from global market growth [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the importance of distinguishing between consumption and assets, using examples to illustrate how spending on non-productive items does not contribute to wealth accumulation [5][6] - It defines assets as items that can generate income, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and funds, while emphasizing that cash is not considered an asset due to its depreciating value over time [9][10] - The concept of inflation is introduced, explaining how the purchasing power of cash diminishes, reinforcing the need to invest in appreciating assets rather than holding cash [9]

Core Viewpoint - Since early 2025, the markets in the US, Hong Kong, and mainland China have shown a quarterly switching pattern, exhibiting a "seesaw" effect and cross-market mapping [1] Group 1: Liquidity - Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to US monetary easing, but outperforming requires local funds to perceive limited opportunities in their own markets [1] Group 2: Fundamentals - The US credit cycle is recovering while China's economy is experiencing turbulence and potential weakening, with US stocks expected to outperform A-shares, which in turn will outperform Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 3: Structural Main Lines - In the AI sector, hardware has better short-term visibility than applications, with A-shares being more concentrated in hardware and Hong Kong stocks in applications [1] - Hong Kong stocks have a higher dividend yield compared to A-shares, providing an advantage for domestic insurance funds and other investors without dividend tax [1] - The cyclical outlook is influenced by catalysts in the first and second quarters, driven by US fiscal and monetary stimulus and the lagging recovery of China's PPI [1] - Domestic credit cycles are weakening, and the recovery slope of consumption is low [1] Group 4: Recommendations - The company suggests using dividends and AI as a foundational strategy, with A-share hardware showing short-term certainty, while Hong Kong applications require catalysts for performance improvement [1] - In the first quarter, focus on strong cyclical trading catalysts, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and aluminum, where A-shares are favored over Hong Kong stocks, while the consumption sector lacks fundamental support [1] - If US fiscal and monetary efforts materialize, cyclical stocks may catch up with technology, and small-cap and financial stocks are also worth monitoring [1]

【导读】上午三大指数集体下挫，大金融普涨，保险板块涨超 4% ，消费股、白酒集体反 弹；大科技回调， CPO 领跌 中国基金报记者 张舟 大家好，基金君和你继续关注今天的市场行情！ 12 月 15 日上午， A 股三大股指集体下跌。截至午间收盘，沪指跌 0.11% ，深证成指跌 0.71% ，创业板指跌 1.29% 。 沪深两市半日成交额为 1.18 万亿元，较上个交易日缩量 529 亿元。 个股涨多跌少，全市场 共 2667 只个股上涨， 56 只个股涨停，有 2588 只个股下跌。 从板块看，大金融普涨，保险板块领涨市场；提振消费政策频出，白酒集体反弹，食品饮 料、商业百货等板块涨幅居前；此前上涨幅度较大的光模块（ CPO ）、培育钻石、存储芯片 等概念股下挫。 | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | Wind中国行业指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 录 2 | 保险 | 三胎 | 大飞机 | 卫星互联网 | 保险 | 软饮料 | 林木 | 石油化工 | 零售 | | 4.26% ...

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Policy & Regulation - The Ministry of Commerce will collaborate with the People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration to guide local departments and financial institutions in strengthening cooperation [1] - The aim is to promote the implementation of relevant measures and provide greater support for benefiting people's livelihoods and boosting consumption [1] - This effort contributes to a positive start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1]

债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 预期平稳，等待地产年末行情 ——每周高频跟踪 20251213 ❖ 工业高频：生产开工略有改善 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅扩大。内陆省份电厂日耗同比仍显疲弱，终端企业 采购以长协煤兑现为主，对高价市场煤接受偏低，沿海电厂日耗小幅下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格涨幅扩大。主要钢材品种去库节奏继续加快，但 建材、螺纹表观需求走弱也加速，说明供给收缩力度相对更大。 （3）沥青：开工率继续处于同期低位。沥青装置开工率环比+0.1pct 至 27.9%，同比-1.0%。赶工需求逐步减少，出货量也处于往年同期低位。 2、地产：（1）新房成交放缓。11 月 28 日-12 月 4 日，30 城新房成交面积 211.8 万平方米，环比-0.6%，同比-36%，降幅继续扩大，月初新房销售动能 有所回落。（2）二手房成交继续走弱。二手房成交面积环比-2.7%，同比- 39.6%，环比跌幅扩大，主因高基数影响。 ❖ 消费相关：11 月乘用车零售同比-7% 1、汽车：11 月 1-30 日，全国乘用车市场零售 226.3 万辆，同比去年同期下 降 7%，较上月增长 1%。 2、原油：价格继续上涨。 ...

0:00 新加坡国立大学商学院治理与永续发展研究所所长 卢耀群：尽管全球面临不确定性带来的逆风，但中国经济的表现依然十分出色，中国注重高质量发展， 推动经济向新向优转型，实现各领域稳定增长，为新一阶段的发展奠定了坚实基础，可以看到中国下一阶段发展的重点包括创新、科技、消费等，这将为中 国人民带来更高品质的生活，也有助于增进全球人民的福祉。 英国48家集团俱乐部主席 杰克·佩里：中国是可再生能源领域的引领者，大力发展风力发电、太阳能发电、并在氢能等领域积极投入，中国领导人目光长 远，表面看"十五五"规划是对未来五年的规划，事实上不止于此，中国着眼于更长远的未来，从中国对新能源、量子科技、人工智能等领域的重视可以看 出，中国对世界未来发展方向的敏锐洞察力。 国际人士指出，面对复杂的国际环境，中国坚持推进经济高质量发展表现出色，为世界经济注入宝贵的稳定性和确定性。 德国黑森州欧洲及国际事务司前司长 国际问题专家 博喜文：是的，我们已经看到中国在"十四五"时期实现显著的增长，完成了既定的目标，其主要推动力 来自于中国大力推进的高质量发展，这是非常具有前瞻性的，发展的势头也将延续到"十五五"期间。 国际人士表示，中国不 ...

刘世锦表示，与以往数次技术革命不同，这次中国在某些领域已经并跑甚至领先，这表明，我国的整体 科技水平已经迎头赶上，在某些领域有明显优势。比如新能源领域，部分产品在过去十年间成本下降了 约90%。 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者潘亦纯）12月12日，在第十九届华夏机构投资者年会上，国务院发展研究中心 原副主任、第十三届全国政协经济委员会副主任刘世锦表示，中国经济在经历30多年的高速增长后，转 向了中速增长，这背后实际是由供给不足转成了需求不足。相应地，经济增长动能要从投资和出口驱动 为主，转向创新与消费驱动为主。在这种情况下，中国经济内外部条件已经发生很大变化，所以，识 别、培育并利用好新格局下的增长优势非常重要。 刘世锦认为，我国有追赶潜能优势。所谓的追赶潜能，即发达经济体已经做过，我国还没有做，但有条 件做的事情。 "中国现阶段人均收入约为1.4万美元，到2035年，我国要达到中等发达国家约3.5万-4万美元的人均收入 水平，中间约2万美元的差距就是追赶潜能。"刘世锦表示，世界各国在这一阶段的需求相对稳定，增长 潜能是非常确定的，特别需要重视。 其次，我国有以数字技术和绿色技术为重点的新技术革命优势。 另一方面，在 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the year-on-year increase in CPI was mainly driven by a sharp rebound in fresh vegetable prices, while PPI remained weak year-on-year. The unexpected rebound in exports may be due to factors such as the suppression of the base effect in October, Christmas stocking in Europe and the United States, and improvements in Sino-US tariffs. The structure of foreign trade exports continued to improve, with diversification results becoming prominent, and high-end manufacturing becoming the core driving force for exports [2]. - The economy still faces certain pressures. Although there is growth in durable goods and service consumption supported by policies on the consumer side, the structural differentiation of CPI and the mild rebound of core CPI reflect that the overall consumer willingness of residents still needs to be boosted. Exports rebounded unexpectedly in November, and the trade structure continued to improve. Affected by the high base of pre - emptive exports in the first half of this year, the resilience of foreign trade growth next year needs to be continuously observed. The 75BP interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year have brought changes in global liquidity, and overseas trade frictions may still continuously disrupt export expectations. Against the backdrop of the intertwining of internal and external factors, the probability of the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation effects of policies and the improvement signals of prices and foreign trade [3]. - The performance of the bond market in 2026 is expected to be better than expected. Since the second half of the year, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is mainly dominated by institutional behavior. From the perspective of the domestic fundamentals, the domestic economic data is under pressure, and the necessity of lowering the policy interest rate has significantly increased. From the external environment, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 75BP, and the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread has been significantly relieved. Currently, the yield of long - term bonds has reached a high point this year. Under the dual effects of internal and external factors, the probability of a successful long - position strategy is relatively high [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Situation - In November, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest level since March 2024. Food prices turned from a decline of 2.9% last month to an increase of 0.2%, while non - food prices rose by 0.8% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [2]. - Food prices "turning from negative to positive" were the core driving force. Fresh vegetable prices rose by 14.5% year - on - year, with the impact on the year - on - year increase of CPI increasing by about 0.49 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in pork prices narrowed to - 15.0%, and the prices of beef and mutton increased. Energy prices had a greater drag, with energy prices falling by 3.4% year - on - year [2]. - There was a structural differentiation in core CPI. On the industrial consumer goods side, the year - on - year increase in gold jewelry prices expanded to 58.4%, and clothing prices rose by 2.0%, but household appliance prices decreased. On the service side, although the demand for post - holiday travel declined, the prices of domestic services and dining out still maintained positive growth [2]. PPI Situation - In November, PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points. Production materials decreased by 2.4% year - on - year, and living materials decreased by 1.5% year - on - year. PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, maintaining positive growth for two consecutive months [2]. - Domestic policies and seasonal demand supported upstream prices. The start of "peak - winter power consumption" in November led to a surge in coal demand, and the prices of coal mining and washing and coal processing increased significantly month - on - month. The effects of comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition were evident, and the year - on - year decline in prices of some industries continued to narrow [2]. - Input factors showed a differentiated pattern. The increase in international non - ferrous metal prices drove up the prices of domestic non - ferrous metal mining and smelting industries, while the decline in international oil prices led to a decline in the prices of the oil and gas extraction and refined petroleum product industries [2]. - The seasonal decline in downstream demand for infrastructure restricted the overall ex - factory prices. The prices of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, reflecting the weakening of infrastructure demand. Most industries' ex - factory prices were still under significant pressure year - on - year, but non - ferrous metal industries performed well [2][3]. Foreign Trade Situation - In November, the total value of imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, turning from negative to positive compared with October. Imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, continuing the six - month growth trend. The trade structure continued to have the characteristics of "strong exports and stable imports" [3]. - Trade with the EU and Africa rebounded significantly, while the decline in exports to the US continued to expand. Exports to ASEAN maintained double - digit growth. Exports to the EU rebounded strongly, and exports to Africa had a high growth rate. Although the decline in exports to the US expanded, the drag on overall exports was offset by the growth of the EU and African markets [3]. - This month's unexpected export growth was mainly affected by the rebound in export growth to the EU and Africa. High - end manufacturing became the core driving force for the rebound. Exports of mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products increased significantly year - on - year, while the growth rates of labor - intensive products were still in the decline range [3].