国家统计局12月15日发布数据显示，11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，环比增长 0.44%；全国服务业生产指数同比增长4.2%；社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%。1—11月 份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）444035亿元，同比下降2.6%；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固定资 产投资增长0.8%。 付凌晖表示，我国消费稳步扩大是人均GDP超过1万美元、消费结构升级发展的必然表现，也是促消费 政策持续发力、消费潜能释放的结果，还是新技术新模式广泛渗透、消费新增长点不断涌现的反映。 "也要看到，居民消费能力和信心有待进一步提升，消费增长内生动力仍需增强。下阶段，要继续深入 实施提振消费专项行动，着力稳就业促增收，积极扩大优质供给，大力优化消费环境，不断释放消费潜 力，促进消费市场持续稳定健康发展。"付凌晖说。 市场销售扩大。付凌晖表示，商品销售持续增长。11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，居民 消费品质提升，部分升级类商品销售较快增长。11月份，限额以上商品零售额中化妆品类和金银珠宝类 零售额分别增长6.1%和8.5%。服务零售较快增长。1—11月份，服务零售额同比增长5. ...

发布时间：2025-12-15 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5178.51 | | 52 周最高 | 5417.39 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 行业相对指数表现 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 建筑材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 建材行业报告 （2025.12.08-2025.12.14） 中央经济会议定调内需，提振消费政策值得期待 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《需求逐步进入淡季，期待地产及化债 政策落地》 - 2025.12.08 投资要点 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，会议提出坚 持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定 实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商品和服务 ...

Group 1: Dairy Industry - The dairy sector has shown strong performance, with stocks like Huangshi Group reaching the daily limit [1][3] - On December 13, a national medical insurance conference highlighted the promotion of maternity insurance and long-term care insurance, which is expected to boost demand in the dairy industry [3] - Recent reports indicate that the baby formula industry has faced demand pressure, but policy support is anticipated to restore consumer confidence and demand [3][5] Group 2: Retail Sector - The retail sector has been active, with Baida Group achieving three consecutive daily limits [6][7] - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumer market remains stable, with service consumption growing rapidly, indicating a positive trend in consumption [7] - The government plans to implement actions to boost consumption, focusing on stabilizing employment and enhancing the quality of supply [7] Group 3: Company Specifics - Enjie Co., a leading separator manufacturer, saw its stock price drop significantly after announcing a merger and acquisition deal [8][9] - The company plans to acquire 100% of Qingdao Zhongke Hualian New Materials Co., which specializes in lithium-ion battery separator production [9]

Core Viewpoint - The joint notice issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration aims to strengthen the collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The notice outlines 11 policy measures across three main areas: enhancing collaboration between commerce and finance, increasing financial support for key consumption areas, and expanding cooperation among government, finance, and enterprises [2][4]. - It emphasizes the need for local departments to improve communication and collaboration, encouraging the establishment of mechanisms to address challenges in financial support for consumption [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Support for Consumption - Financial institutions are encouraged to focus on five key areas: upgrading product consumption, expanding service consumption, fostering new consumption types, innovating diverse consumption scenarios, and supporting consumption assistance [2][7]. - Specific measures include enhancing financial services for durable goods and digital products, improving loan policies for personal consumption, and supporting cross-border trade financing [7][8]. Group 3: Government-Finance-Enterprise Cooperation - The notice promotes joint consumption activities organized by local commerce departments and financial institutions, aiming to reach more businesses and consumers [11]. - It encourages the sharing of information and resources between local departments and financial institutions to facilitate precise service delivery and enhance credit construction in the consumption sector [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall performance of China's economy in 2025 shows a complex situation, with some indicators improving and others facing challenges. The government is expected to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption, promote investment, and address key risks. The bond market remains in a volatile and weak pattern, while the stock market is expected to see more balanced opportunities with technology stocks continuing as the main theme [17][22][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in November was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%. Social financing scale, M2, M1, and other financial indicators showed certain trends, with social financing scale increment in the first 11 months exceeding last year's full - year figure [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's November financial data showed that RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, and the cumulative social financing scale increment was 33.39 trillion yuan. The authorities issued a notice to boost consumption through financial support [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - Global physical gold ETFs had continuous inflows in November, with the total asset management scale and total holdings reaching new highs. The copper price was approaching $12,000 per ton, with a cumulative increase of over 30% this year. The zinc, copper, and other metal inventories showed different trends [5][6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The prices of coke and coking coal decreased in early December. The 2026 Shanxi Coal Trading Conference was held, and some steel products will be under export license management from January 1, 2026 [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's oil and gas industry is moving towards a new stage of development, with the expected natural gas production to reach 300 billion cubic meters by 2030. The shale oil exploration and development work was promoted, and the number of US oil drilling platforms increased [11][12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The prices of some agricultural products such as soybean meal and corn increased, while the price of peanuts decreased. The total grain output of Beidahuang Group achieved "22 consecutive years of harvest" [14][15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank conducted 1205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 12, with a net withdrawal of 193 billion yuan. This week, there are large - scale reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank will conduct 6000 billion yuan of 6 - month - term repurchase operations on December 15 [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - Multiple departments held meetings to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing policies such as promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, and preventing financial risks. The issuance scale of public funds and bonds in the market showed certain trends [17][25]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market turned cold, with bond yields rising and bond futures prices falling. The money market interest rates showed different trends, and the yields of European and US bonds also changed [28][32]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index also showed a slight increase. Non - US currencies had different trends [33]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different institutions analyzed the November financial data and the Central Economic Work Conference, providing investment suggestions for the bond market, such as holding short - term credit bonds and medium - term interest - rate bonds [34]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - Last week, the A - share market was volatile, with the technology growth sector performing well. The scale of ETFs linked to the CSI A500 index continued to expand. Multiple public funds are currently being issued, and the market is at the time of cross - year layout, with more balanced investment opportunities expected in 2026 [39][40].

2025年12月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：如期降息 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：长期驱动逻辑仍存，价格回落有限 | 4 | | 锌：国内持续去库 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：宏观扰动增加 | 11 | | 氧化铝：持续关注产能减产 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：高位震荡 | 11 | | 铂：突破前高开启补涨 | 13 | | 钯：ETF增持明显，有望冲击前高 | 13 | | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 黄金：如期降息 白银：高位调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 期货研究 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | ...

其中提到，升级商品消费。加强大宗耐用消费品、数码产品等消费金融服务，挖掘商品消费升级潜能。 推动金融机构与平台、重点商户合作，加快推动个人消费贷款业务发展。适当减免汽车以旧换新过程中 提前结清贷款产生的违约金。完善消费品以旧换新服务平台，扩大金融机构参与范围。 近日，商务部办公厅、中国人民银行办公厅、金融监管总局办公厅发布《关于加强商务和金融协同，更 大力度提振消费的通知》。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of a notification aimed at strengthening collaboration between the business and financial systems to boost and expand consumption in China [2][4]. Group 1: Strengthening Collaboration - The notification outlines 11 policy measures across three main areas, emphasizing the need for local departments to enhance communication and collaboration, and to create mechanisms for cooperation [4][8]. - It encourages local governments to utilize digital currency and various financial tools to improve the effectiveness of consumption promotion policies [7][9]. Group 2: Financial Support for Key Consumption Areas - Financial institutions are urged to focus on five key areas: upgrading product consumption, expanding service consumption, nurturing new consumption types, innovating diverse consumption scenarios, and supporting consumption assistance [5][10]. - Specific measures include enhancing financial services for durable goods and digital products, and developing tailored financial products to meet consumer needs [10][11]. Group 3: Expanding Government-Financial-Enterprise Cooperation - The notification promotes joint consumption promotion activities involving financial institutions, local governments, and businesses to reach a wider audience [14][15]. - It emphasizes the importance of information sharing between local business departments and financial institutions to facilitate precise service delivery [15][16].

盘前要闻 1、更大力度提振消费！央行等三部门最新部署，专家解读来了 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 3、多部门部署明年经济工作：将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中央经济工作会议为2026年经济工作指明施政方向后，央行、财政部等多部门密集发声，根据会议部署 细化落实措施。央行表示，要把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。中央财办 副主任韩文秀表示，2026年将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应。 12月14日，央行等三部门联合发布《关于加强商务和金融协同更大力度提振消费的通知》。其中指出加 大消费重点领域金融支持，开展多层次、多渠道、多样化的促消费活动和信息共享。专家表示，《通 知》提升入境支付便利性、支持"首发经济"等内容，在政策合力与市场创新协同作用下，深度释放内需 潜能。 2、茅台推出控量政策，飞天茅台批价回涨，零售均价超1800元 类型：公司 情绪影响：正面 12日晚间，有消息人士称，贵州茅台近期将推出一个涵盖短期和中长期的控量政策。短期方面，贵州茅 台在12月内停止向经销商发放所有茅台产品；中长期方面，明年贵州茅台计划削减非标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint issuance of the "Notice" by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration aims to strengthen the collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption, with a focus on precise policies and innovative mechanisms to support sustained growth in consumer spending [4][17]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The "Notice" outlines a three-pronged approach with 11 specific measures to create a collaborative system for boosting consumption, emphasizing the importance of consumer spending as a driver of endogenous growth [4][5]. - A full-chain collaborative system is established to address the previous disconnect between commerce and financial institutions, transforming isolated efforts into a unified approach [5][6]. Group 2: Mechanism Innovation - Local commerce and financial management departments are required to establish a regular coordination mechanism, encouraging regions to develop specialized work plans [6]. - A shared project list system in the consumption sector is proposed to facilitate precise matching between project needs and financial resources, addressing issues of information asymmetry and delayed policy implementation [6][7]. Group 3: Policy Synergy - The "Notice" encourages the use of financing guarantees and loan interest subsidies to create a synergistic effect between fiscal and financial resources, particularly in the automotive sector [7]. - The combination of subsidies and financial incentives is expected to amplify the impact of consumption-boosting policies, as evidenced by the success of the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement program [7]. Group 4: Technological Integration - The introduction of digital RMB and smart contract red envelopes aims to enhance the efficiency of subsidy distribution and ensure targeted use of funds, improving the effectiveness of consumption policies [8]. - This integration of technology and policy is projected to increase the efficiency of consumption promotion measures by over 30% in pilot regions [8]. Group 5: Targeted Financial Support - The "Notice" outlines differentiated support strategies for five key consumption areas, including durable goods, service consumption, and new consumption models, to ensure precise allocation of financial resources [9][10][11][12]. - Specific measures include enhancing installment payment options and credit card services for durable goods, as well as expanding financing for service sectors like home services and tourism [10][11]. Group 6: Rural and Urban Market Development - The "Notice" proposes tailored loan products for rural markets and initiatives to enhance inbound consumption, aiming to stimulate growth in both urban and rural areas [14]. - The integration of local consumption activities with financial support is intended to empower rural economies and improve the sales of local agricultural products [14]. Group 7: Execution and Implementation - A robust execution framework is established to ensure that policy benefits reach businesses and consumers effectively, focusing on activity coordination, information sharing, and promotional efforts [15][16]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to actively participate in local consumption promotion activities, creating exclusive products and offers to stimulate consumer spending [15]. Group 8: Long-term Vision - The "Notice" signifies a shift towards a more precise and collaborative approach to consumption stimulation, addressing structural imbalances in the market and fostering a sustainable consumption ecosystem [17][18]. - The emphasis on long-term mechanisms, such as credit system development and new consumption cultivation, aims to ensure the continuous release of consumption potential [18].