1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3][4] 2. Core Views Market Analysis - Cost and profit: Coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, profits are narrowing [2]. - Supply: The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply. The output and operating rate of urea plants are expected to remain high in August [2][15]. - Imports and exports: After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. Urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [2][30]. - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 38.7%, and that of melamine is 63.5%. Urea enterprises' order days are 6.1 days. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of urea enterprises is 917,000 tons. As demand weakens in the second half of the month, upstream inventory begins to accumulate. The port inventory is 493,000 tons. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [2][44]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - In July, affected by the macro - policy of "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", coking coal and coke futures led the rise, and urea futures were driven by sentiment, with the futures price rising significantly. However, after the macro - favorable factors dissipated at the end of the month, the futures price quickly declined, and the market returned to fundamental trading. Meanwhile, it was continuously disturbed by export - related policies. As the peak season for summer agricultural demand ends, downstream demand gradually weakens, upstream inventory accumulates, and urea prices mainly fluctuate weakly [9]. Urea Output - The urea output in July was 6.05 million tons, roughly the same as the previous month. The domestic monthly urea output in August is expected to reach 6.1 million tons, a slight increase from July. There are few planned urea plant overhauls, and the daily average output is at a high level, with sufficient supply [15]. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Currently, coal - based urea enterprises have decent profits. With fewer short - term urea plant overhauls, coal - based and gas - based costs remain stable. Due to the decline in urea prices, production profits are narrowing. In July, the overall operating rate of urea was 84.3%, a 2.4% decrease from the previous month. The coal - based operating rate was 84.4%, a 3.6% decrease from the previous month, and the gas - based operating rate was 81%, a 2.4% increase from the previous month. With few planned urea plant overhauls in the future, the operating rate of urea plants is expected to remain high in August [20]. Urea Import and Export Volume and Export Profit - In June 2025, urea imports were 27.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 87%. In June 2025, urea exports were 66,200 tons. After the relaxation of domestic export policies, export volume has increased. Both July and August are export windows, and there are still goods being shipped to ports for export. The export volume is expected to remain stable during the export window this year. With the relaxation of domestic export policies, urea enterprises' willingness to ship goods to ports has significantly increased, factory inspections are being carried out, domestic urea prices have risen significantly, the urea export window has opened, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has decreased [30]. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - At the end of July, the operating rate of compound fertilizers was 38.7%, an 8.6% increase from the previous month. The operating rate of melamine was 63.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. Urea enterprises' order days were 6.1 days, roughly the same as the previous month. The operating rate of compound fertilizers for downstream industrial demand is slowly recovering as it enters the autumn fertilizer production period, while the melamine operating rate is mainly weak. August is the off - season for domestic industrial and agricultural demand. As the peak season for summer top - dressing in agriculture ends, the agricultural demand for urea starts to weaken [40]. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - At the end of July, the inventory of urea enterprises was 917,000 tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons from the previous month. In the first half of July, it was still the peak season for downstream demand, and urea inventory decreased. However, as demand weakened in the second half of the month, inventory began to accumulate. The port inventory was 493,000 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from the previous month. With continuous urea exports in August, the port inventory has increased to a high level as goods arrive at ports for export, showing a fluctuating trend overall [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton. In the port market, coal "anti - involution" reform supports coking coal futures, potentially boosting port methanol prices, but upcoming concentrated imports may lead to inventory accumulation and limit price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability continue to pressure demand, but low factory inventories and expected raw material procurement by northwest CTO factories maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. Recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling coal mine over - production have a positive impact on the futures market and the mindset of inland operators, with the inland methanol market expected to continue a stable and slightly stronger consolidation [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the methanol 2509 contract: - **Fundamentals**: In the port market, coal reform supports coking coal futures and may boost methanol prices, but upcoming concentrated imports may lead to inventory accumulation and limit price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability pressure demand, but low factory inventories and expected raw material procurement by northwest CTO factories maintain a weak supply - demand balance. Recent policies have a positive impact on the futures market and inland operators' mindset, with the inland market expected to continue a stable and slightly stronger consolidation; rated neutral. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 15, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price; rated bullish. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 65.03 tons, an increase of 6.32 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 4.05 tons to 36.63 tons; rated bullish. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average; rated neutral. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; rated bearish. - **Expectation**: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract trading in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong's 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device is planned to be put into production this month, and northwest CTO factories are expected to purchase more methanol [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is being actively sold, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot Market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained at 665 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port was at 277 US dollars/ton, and the import cost was 2447 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous value. The price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan to 2395 yuan/ton, and in Fujian, it decreased by 10 yuan to 2430 yuan/ton [8]. - **Futures Market**: The futures closing price was 2405 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous value, and the number of registered warehouse receipts was 8716, a decrease of 118 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous value, and the import spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan from the previous value [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous value. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory at East China ports was 42.48 tons, an increase of 0.81 tons from the previous value, and at South China ports, it was 22.55 tons, an increase of 5.51 tons from the previous value [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, etc. Different regions have various maintenance situations, such as shutdown for maintenance, planned or unplanned maintenance, and device load reduction [54]. - **Foreign Devices**: In Iran, some devices are in the process of restarting or have uncertain recovery status. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, etc., most devices are operating normally, but some have experienced maintenance or have low operating rates [55]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises with methanol - related operations are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units are under synchronous maintenance, while many other enterprises' units are operating stably, with some having future maintenance plans [56].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector is predominantly bearish, with soda ash futures experiencing a significant decline, reaching a low of 1249.00 yuan/ton and a drop of approximately 5.10% [1] - The current market sentiment for soda ash is influenced by macroeconomic factors, leading to potential volatility in the short term, while the fundamental outlook remains bearish due to high supply and weak demand [1] - The industry is facing challenges such as increased supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, which are unlikely to improve in the short term, suggesting a likely medium to long-term price fluctuation [2] Group 2 - The soda ash market is affected by ongoing production costs, with expectations of a decrease in costs by the end of 2024, while raw salt and thermal coal prices remain high, providing some support near the cost line [2] - The supply side is characterized by narrow fluctuations, with ongoing maintenance expected to impact production, while the demand for heavy soda ash is decreasing due to losses in the photovoltaic glass sector [1][2] - The market requires close monitoring of raw material price fluctuations and the implementation of policies aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity, which will affect supply adjustments and inventory digestion [1]

Group 1 - Multiple chemical sectors are entering a new round of expansion, with the adhesive tape base film industry expected to reach a peak production period in August and the n-butanol industry set to add 250,000 tons of capacity in the second half of the year [1] - The n-butanol industry is experiencing a decline in price due to accelerated new capacity coming online, with an expected total capacity exceeding 7 million tons by 2029 [2] - The adhesive tape base film industry is also entering a rapid expansion phase, with a projected capacity of 4.2597 million tons by July 2025, and nearly 20 new production lines planned for August [2] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" actions are expected to drive technological upgrades and industry consolidation through the supply chain, impacting the long-term landscape [3] - Companies in the adhesive tape base film sector are reducing production loads to alleviate short-term supply pressures, while n-butanol companies are accelerating technological upgrades to enhance product value [3] - As policies are implemented, inefficient capacities are expected to exit the market, allowing companies with technological and supply chain advantages to dominate [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that leading chemical companies such as Wanhua, Satellite, Hualu, Hengli, and Rongsheng have collectively surged, driven by a historical correlation where the chemical index outperforms during PPI recovery cycles [1] - The elimination of backward production capacity aligns well with the characteristics of the chemical ETF, which tracks a leader-focused index, benefiting from the capital expenditures of leading companies in recent years [1] - As of July 30, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 1.80%, with significant gains from constituent stocks like Satellite Chemical (up 6.83%) and Wanhua Chemical (up 4.71%) [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) include Wanhua Chemical, Yilake Co., and Juhua Co., collectively accounting for 43.37% of the index [2] - The Chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the methanol market, predicting that the methanol price will fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade between 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton. The port market may see inventory accumulation, which could limit price increases, while the inland market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - For the MA2509 contract, the fundamentals show that the "anti - involution" reform of coal may support the methanol futures and spot prices in ports, but potential inventory accumulation could limit the increase. Inland, the market is in a state of low supply and demand, with prices expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. The basis indicates that the spot price in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures. Inventory data shows a decrease in social inventory in East and South China ports. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some domestic devices are shut down, the methanol operation rate in Iran has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid devices are put into production, and there is external procurement demand from CTO plants in the Northwest [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices have resumed operation, there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde market is in the off - season, the MTBE operation rate has decreased significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling, and some factory inventories in the production area have accumulated [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and futures prices**: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed slightly, with the futures closing price rising by 30 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 220 to 9834, and the effective forecast remained at 0 [8]. - **Price differences**: The basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 29 yuan/ton, and the import price difference decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton. The price differences between regions such as Jiangsu - Shandong and Jiangsu - Hebei have increased [8]. - **Operation rate**: The national weighted average operation rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, with significant decreases in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports decreased by 2.93 million tons to 41.67 million tons, while that in South China ports increased by 2.04 million tons to 17.04 million tons [8]. - **Profit of production processes**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 290 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased by 334 yuan/ton to 479 yuan/ton [20]. - **External market prices**: The CFR China price increased by 2.56% to 280 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 0.91% to 333.5 US dollars/ton, and the price difference increased by 4 US dollars/ton to - 53.5 US dollars/ton [24]. - **Prices of traditional downstream products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged [29]. - **Production profit and load of downstream products**: The production profit of formaldehyde decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 182 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42%. The production profit of dimethyl ether decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 353 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88%. The production profit of acetic acid increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42%. The production profit of MTO increased by 38 yuan/ton to - 996 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% to 79.84% [33][36][40][45]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many plants in Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions are under maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and production losses [56]. - **Foreign methanol plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of resuming operation, while some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally or have planned shutdowns [57]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants in Northwest, East China, Central China, and other regions are under maintenance or operating stably, with different operating conditions and maintenance plans [58].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View Policy expectations and exports are expected to provide short - term support to the urea market, but high supply and weak demand will limit the upside potential. The urea futures are likely to remain in a volatile pattern. Market participants should monitor production costs and the progress of autumn stockpiling [4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting the elimination of outdated production capacity in key industries. The proportion of fixed - bed processes in the urea industry has dropped to 10%, increasing the expectation of a marginal contraction in supply [4]. - Export orders are being continuously fulfilled. Enterprise inventories have decreased by 7.46% week - on - week to 895,500 tons, while port inventories have increased to 541,000 tons, alleviating domestic supply pressure [4]. - The top - dressing of northern corn is mostly completed, leading to weak agricultural demand. The incremental demand for autumn stockpiling of compound fertilizers is limited, and industrial demand is mainly for essential purchases [4]. - Although the daily production has slightly decreased to 196,100 tons, it is still higher year - on - year. With the addition of new production capacity, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [4]. Data Presentation The report presents a series of data related to the urea industry, including historical data on enterprise and port inventories, futures trading volume and open interest, spot prices, production costs, production profits, capacity utilization rates, and export prices, as well as data on related industries such as compound fertilizers and the power coal market [7][10][17][28][38][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX had a staged breakthrough due to improved macro - atmosphere and unexpected device situations. PTA also had a staged breakthrough as market sentiment was released, with the market trading on the logic of eliminating backward production capacity [7]. - **Future Forecast**: Crude oil price increase is lackluster due to the market's cautious attitude towards US trade negotiations. PX may have a supply reduction with the potential shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million - ton PX device. PTA has low processing fees and production losses but no new official reduction or maintenance plans. Polyester device maintenance plans are limited, and the weaving market remains weak. Overall, PX is expected to adjust in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Situation PX - **Futures**: The PX futures contract rebounded to around 7,000. On July 25, the closing price was 7,062 yuan/ton, up 252 yuan/ton or 3.70% from July 18. The settlement price on July 25 was 7,022 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton or 3.14% from July 18 [13][15]. - **Spot**: The market negotiation and trading atmosphere were average, more active in the second half of the week. From July 21 - 25, the average basis of the main contract was - 173 yuan/ton, the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,751.8 yuan/ton, up 47.2 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous period [16][18]. PTA - **Futures**: The price center rose step - by - step. On July 25, the closing price of the main contract was 4,936 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan/ton or 4.02% from July 18. The settlement price on July 25 was 4,902 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton or 3.19% from July 18 [20][22]. - **Spot**: The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average. From July 21 - 25, the average basis of the main contract was - 4.50 yuan/ton. The average weekly arrival price of PTA in the Chinese market was 614.8 US dollars/ton, up 11.2 US dollars/ton or 1.85% from the previous period. The average spot price in the East China market was 4,819 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton or 1.71% from the previous period [23][25]. 2. Device Operation Situation PX Devices - **Domestic**: Many domestic PX enterprises had different load - adjustment situations, such as Ningbo Daxie running at 70% load, and some devices of Sheng虹 Refining and Chemical reducing their loads [30]. - **Asia**: Asian PX devices in different regions also had various operation states, including startups, shutdowns, and load adjustments [32][33]. PTA Devices - Some PTA devices were under maintenance, like the 1.2 - million - ton device of Ningbo Taihua and the 2 - million - ton device of Hainan Yisheng. There were no new PTA device maintenance or restart plans this week, and the weekly operation rate remained stable [37][38]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Cost - **Crude Oil**: Without significant news, oil prices were in a stalemate. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on July 25 was 65.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.89 US dollars/barrel from July 18, and Brent crude oil's was 67.66 US dollars/barrel, down 1.62 US dollars/barrel from July 18 [43][45]. - **Naphtha**: The supply was abundant due to increased exports from the Middle East and Europe to Asia, and demand decreased as LPG replaced it in cracking devices. The weekly average price of CFR Japan was 572.65 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 23.52 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - **PX Spot**: PX continued to reduce inventory, and prices rose steadily. The weekly average price of CFR China Main Port was 851.20 US dollars/ton, up 1.50% from the previous period; the weekly average price of FOB South Korea was 826.80 US dollars/ton, up 1.55% from the previous period [55]. Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The profit was good, with the PXN weekly average at 280.82 yuan/ton, up 9.38% from the previous period, and the PX - MX weekly average at 111.90 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The processing fee was at a low level due to raw material cost pressure from PX and poor demand. The average spot processing fee from July 21 - 25 was 228.17 yuan/ton [59][61]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, PTA social inventory was 4.502 million tons, up 60,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of PTA factories increased by 0.13 days, and that of polyester factories decreased by 0.20 days [65][67]. Demand - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products fluctuated slightly, with different weekly average price changes. The average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated at 70%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 86.87%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.26% [70][79]. - **Weaving**: The off - season market continued, with weak demand in the grey fabric market. Most weaving factories faced losses, and new orders were insufficient [85][87].

Report Overview - The report is a Polyolefin Morning Report dated July 29, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, due to cost support, macro - policy push, but weak demand, the market is expected to oscillate today [4][6] - For PP, with cost support and macro - policy push, yet weak demand, it is also expected to show an oscillating trend today [7][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a stable - growth plan. The downstream demand is weak, and the current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7370 (+0), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, considered neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), a bearish factor [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand, it is expected to oscillate today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and macro - policy push; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [6] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI and Caixin PMI showed certain trends. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high temperature and heavy rain. The current PP delivery spot price is 7150 (-50), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 20, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), a bearish factor [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, it is expected to oscillate today [7] - **Factors**: Bullish factors are cost support and macro - policy push; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [8] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7370 (+0), the 09 - contract price is 7335 (-121), the basis is 35, and the PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4) [4][9] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7150 (-50), the 09 - contract price is 7130 (-91), the basis is 20, and the PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5) [7][9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. showed different trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. changed over time. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic methanol market is expected to have a local upward trend, but the increase in some regions may be limited. In the port market, the "anti - involution" reform of coal boosts coking coal and coke futures, which may further support the spot and futures prices of methanol in ports. However, the concentrated arrival of imports next week may lead to inventory accumulation and limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to import arrivals and macro - external news. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season continues, and poor downstream profitability restricts cost transfer and demand. But with no inventory pressure on inland factories and continuous procurement demand from CTO factories in the northwest, the supply - demand balance remains stable. Recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling over - production in coal mines have pushed up the methanol futures market, which is positive for inland operators. The inland methanol market is expected to continue to be stable with a slight upward trend [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The short - term domestic methanol market has different trends in ports and inland areas. Port prices may be affected by coal policies and import arrivals, while inland prices are influenced by the off - season, downstream profitability, and policies [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Prices - Prices in different regions showed varying degrees of change. For example, in Jiangsu, the price increased from 2385 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2488 yuan/ton on July 25th, with a weekly increase of 4.32%. In Hebei, the price rose from 2190 yuan/ton to 2225 yuan/ton, a 1.60% increase. In Shandong (Lunan), the price remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Futures and Basis - The futures price increased from 2365 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2519 yuan/ton on July 25th, with a weekly increase of 6.51%. The basis showed fluctuations, with a weekly change of - 51 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit increased from 265 yuan/ton on July 18th to 315 yuan/ton on July 25th, a 50 - yuan increase. Natural gas - based production profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton. Coke oven gas - based production profit increased from 451 yuan/ton to 474 yuan/ton, a 334 - yuan increase [11]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a 3.81% decrease. In the northwest region, it decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a 3.55% decrease [13]. 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China price increased from 270 dollars/ton on July 18th to 280 dollars/ton on July 25th, a 3.70% increase. CFR Southeast Asia price increased slightly from 330.5 dollars/ton to 333.5 dollars/ton, a 0.91% increase. The spread between them changed from - 60.5 dollars/ton to - 53.5 dollars/ton [16]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost increased from 2388 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2470 yuan/ton on July 25th, a 3.44% increase. The import spread changed from - 3 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan increase [19]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged during the week, with a 0.00% change [26]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit decreased from - 165 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 24.52% to 25.42%. Dimethyl ether production profit decreased from 410 yuan/ton to 361 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.06% to 8.88%. Acetic acid production profit decreased from - 62 yuan/ton to - 118 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 80.48% to 82.42% [27][29][35]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit decreased from - 932 yuan/ton on July 18th to - 1262 yuan/ton on July 25th. The MTO/MTP device load decreased from 79.84% last week to 79.69% this week [39]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased from 44.6 tons last week to 41.67 tons this week, a 2.93 - ton decrease. In the South China port, the inventory increased from 15 tons to 17.04 tons, a 2.04 - ton increase [43]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased from 8544 on July 18th to 10134 on July 25th, a 18.61% increase. Effective forecasts decreased from 1800 to 0, a 100.00% decrease [44]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods vary, and the weekly maintenance losses also differ. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's maintenance loss is 1950 tons, and Qinghai Zhonghao's is 9100 tons [47]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - In Iran, some methanol plants are in the process of restarting or operating at different levels, such as ZPC, Kaveh, etc. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Qatar, most plants are operating normally, but some are under maintenance, such as QAFAC [48]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - In the northwest, most olefin and methanol - olefin integrated devices are operating normally or have specific operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is under maintenance, while Yan'an Energy and Chemical is operating stably. In other regions, the operating conditions of olefin devices also vary [49].