Group 1 - The article discusses the performance of growth style in bull markets, indicating that it often ends up being the most profitable strategy [3] - It highlights the importance of understanding the rotation between large-cap and small-cap stocks during bull markets [3][4] - The article introduces two sets of indices, Huazheng Large Cap and Huazheng Small Cap, which are designed to better represent the A-share market's size dynamics [5][6] Group 2 - The article outlines the methodology for selecting stocks for different indices based on market capitalization percentages [6] - It provides a historical analysis of bull markets, noting that from 2005 to 2008, there was frequent rotation between large and small-cap stocks, indicating that size style was less significant during that period [8][9] - From 2008 to 2010, small-cap stocks outperformed, reflecting a strong preference among investors for small-cap stocks [11][12] Group 3 - The bull market from 2012 to 2015 was driven by small-cap stocks, particularly those in the ChiNext board, despite a brief period of large-cap stock performance [14] - The 2016 to 2018 bull market was characterized by large-cap stocks leading, although the relative performance did not exceed 20% compared to previous bull markets [16] - The most recent bull market, starting in 2024, resembles earlier small-cap driven markets, with small-cap stocks showing strength without significant rotation [20]

文： 泽平宏观团队 2024 年 9 月下旬以来，力度空前的宏观放松政策和AI科技浪潮点燃了 A 股港股 " 信心 牛 " 行情，一轮波澜壮阔的牛市启动。 随着 A 股到达 4100 点，市场出现大幅震荡，很多朋友问， 牛市结束了吗？未来还有没 有行情？ 我在2024年9月市场信心低谷的时候，率先旗帜鲜明看多，提出 "信心牛"和"东升西 落"。 最近我复盘了 A 股历史上的三次大牛市， 1999-2001 年的 519 行情、 2005-2007 年的周期牛、 2014-2015 年的改革牛和水牛，寻找牛市运行的规律，帮助大家看清本轮牛 市的来龙去脉。 通过复盘三轮大牛市，我有七大发现： 一是 A 股大牛市启动需要三大条件，政策转向、资金流入、估值低位， 最初充满争议， 伴随估值逐渐修复，投资者的热情被点燃后开启牛市。牛市总是在绝望中重生，争议中上 涨，狂欢中崩盘。 二是 A 股牛市一般经历三个阶段，政策驱动 - 资金驱动 - 基本面驱动， 牛市启动初期 与经济基本面关联较小，但牛市的持续上涨与经济基本面有关，若无基本面和企业盈利支 撑，则终究会回吐涨幅。 三是 A 股政策市和散户为主的特征导致牛短熊长，大起 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a rapidly growing investment community with nearly 50,000 members, highlighting the practical and collaborative nature of investment strategies shared within this circle [1]. Group 1: Community Dynamics - The community consists of 80% VIP members, indicating a high level of engagement and expertise among participants [3]. - The circle operates on a practical basis, emphasizing real-world investment strategies rather than theoretical discussions [3]. Group 2: Rewards and Engagement - The community has distributed over 16 million in prizes throughout the year, showcasing a commitment to rewarding active members [5]. - Various activities, including Q&A sessions with industry experts, cover over 20 niche sectors, enhancing member knowledge and engagement [5]. Group 3: Performance Highlights - Members have reported significant returns, with one member achieving a profit of 4.31 million, indicating the potential for high earnings within this investment circle [6][7]. - The article notes that many successful members prefer to keep their earnings private, suggesting that actual performance may be even higher than reported [7]. Group 4: Market Trends and Insights - The article highlights the rising interest in sectors such as AI, semiconductor chips, and precious metals, driven by current market dynamics and geopolitical factors [8][9]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest a bullish outlook for various sectors, with a focus on strategic national initiatives and technological advancements [10][11].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 张翼轸 来源：雪球 牛市或许已经进入了中后场，那么本轮牛市最强劲的成长风格，是否能在接下来的牛市中继续领涨呢？ 这无疑是许多投资者关注的一个问题。 最近用中信证券的五大风格指数做了一些统计，结果或许会有一些启发性，在这里与大家分享。 举一个最眼前的例子就是本轮牛市究竟始于 2024 年的 2 月还是 2024 年的 9 月，也就是 "9・24" 行情？其实不同的分析师就有不同的分类。 下表是我自己在本文中使用的划分，主要参考了华福证券的分类，但同时个别时间段我也做了一些调整，更符合我个人研究框架的微调，比如下表 的第三段牛市，我就觉得开始于 2012 年 12 月，而不是许多研报采用的 2013 年 6 月，因为如果观察创业板指数，就会发现其实那波牛市代表的 成长股行情其实在 2012 年的年末就已经开始。 何谓"笑到最后" 要回答这个问题，其实首先要讨论什么是 "笑到最后"？ 作为一个关注相对走势的比值爱好者，我其实是以这五大风格指数相对万得全 A 指数的比值来进行判断。 老读 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a rebound after a significant correction, with prices rising over 6% during the trading session, potentially marking the largest single-day increase since November 2008 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline, dropping to approximately $4,402, before rebounding to around $4,952 during the trading session [1]. - April gold futures rose by 6.93%, closing at $4,975 per ounce, with a notable increase of $322.4 in a single day [1]. - The recent downturn in precious metals is primarily driven by technical factors rather than a significant weakening of the fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook for gold, suggesting that the market may enter a consolidation phase between support at $4,400 and resistance at $5,100 [3]. - Economic and political uncertainties are expected to support gold and silver prices, with expectations of a long-term bull market resuming [3]. - The low-interest-rate environment continues to favor gold, although a lack of new catalysts may lead to short-term consolidation [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The April gold futures chart indicates a bearish "key reversal" pattern, suggesting a potential market top [4]. - The next upward target for bulls is to break the strong resistance level at $5,250, while bears aim to push prices below the technical support level of $4,423.20 [4]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $4,977.70 and $5,000, while support levels are at $4,750 and the overnight low of $4,690.20 [4].

Group 1 - In January 2026, A-shares saw a significant increase in new accounts, totaling 4.9158 million, which is an 89% month-on-month increase from December 2025 and a 213% year-on-year increase from January 2025 [1][2] - The majority of new accounts were from individual investors, accounting for 4.9053 million, while institutional investors opened 10,554 accounts [2] - The new account figures for January 2026 surpassed all monthly totals from 2025, indicating a strong market sentiment and a rapid increase in market activity at the beginning of the year [2] Group 2 - Market analysts are generally optimistic about the future market trends, with many brokerage firms predicting that the market is in the second phase of a bull market driven by continuous inflow of new capital [3] - Key drivers for the A-share market include favorable domestic fundamentals, supportive policies, and ample liquidity, which are expected to sustain the spring market rally [3] - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with limited downside and significant upside potential, particularly in brokerage stocks and banks that are performing well [4]

刚刚，知名经济学家任泽平在社交媒体发声称，牛回速归。 任泽平认为，市场"洗洗更健康"，牛市是散户亏钱的最主要方式，无非追涨杀跌，炒作概念，不做基本 面分析。不建议投机心态的个人炒股，必亏。 任泽平指出，做投资一定要做基本研究，花些时间精力学习，毕竟是真金白银（核心股）投入，"如果 你认真研究，找到自己擅长的领域，我认为个人也能跑赢机构"。 昨日A股大调整后，任泽平在社交媒体谈到，近期股市调整，黄金白银（核心股）大跌，市场分歧很 大，有的人很迷茫。短期都是噪音，长期才能看清本质。 任泽平立场鲜明表示，对未来股市是乐观的。他的理由主要有：货币放松的逻辑没变，AI科技突破的 逻辑没变。在他看来了，鹰会越飞越高，猪会重重的摔在地上，"如果你手里是代表未来、有核心竞争 力的鹰，毫无必要担心。如果你手里是炒作概念、毫无护城河的猪，就是参与投机，最终会付出代 价"。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 ...

与此同时，机构投资者对黄金的配置依然偏低，若养老基金、家族办公室等长期资本逐步加码，将为金 价带来巨大上行潜力。尽管部分投行预测黄金有望升至6000甚至8000美元，但Piggott认为，推动金价上 涨的根本因素——如债务失衡、去美元化趋势和地缘政治紧张——是缓慢发酵的过程，而非一蹴而就。 在他看来，此次回调不仅未削弱市场信心，反而起到了情绪重置的作用，吸引了更多理性买家，夯实了 上涨基础。只要全球不确定性居高不下，财政纪律松弛的问题依旧存在，黄金的长期牛市格局就不会改 变。"波动令人不安，但它不是危险信号，而是市场为风险重新定价所付出的必要成本。"他总结道。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 从技术面来看，2月3日黄金呈现高开高走态势，价格较昨日显著反弹，正逐步逼近下行趋势线的关键压 力位4950美元。更为上方的强阻力区间则位于5010至5110美元之间，预计在今日美盘前触及该区域的难 度较大。从1小时级别分析，KDJ与RSI指标仍处于偏弱状态，MACD也尚未回升至零轴上方，这表明当 前的反弹更多是技术性修复行为，而非趋势的根本性反转。因此，在操作策略上，仍建议以压力位附近 逢高做空或谨慎对待为主，下方短期支撑可关 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 量化周报 短期调整不足为惧 短期调整不足为惧。本周（1.26-1.30），大盘横盘震荡，上证指数全周收 跌 0.44%。在此背景下，煤炭迎来日线级别上涨。至此，25 个行业处于日 线级别上涨中。当下，我们认为市场的日线级别上涨大概率还能持续，理 由如下：1、上证指数的上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结束的概率低；2、目 前市场量能得以维持，走势比较健康；3、传媒、计算机、电力及公用事业 已于近期重新迎来日线级别上涨，而且上涨只走了 1 浪结构，短期结束的 概率低。本周，市场虽然出现震荡，但并未破坏原有的 30 分钟级别上涨， 也就是说当下的震荡调整连 30 分钟级别都不算，因此，我们认为市场的 短期调整不足为惧，市场仍然新高在望。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、 沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上 涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期牛市只进行到上半场；此外， 已有 27 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 18 个行业周线上涨走了 1-3 浪结 构，因此我们认为本轮牛市是个普涨格局 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to maintain stability and has further upward potential, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended, particularly focusing on technology represented by AI applications and traditional assets like liquor and real estate[1] - Since December 17, 2025, the A-share spring market has gradually unfolded, with significant contributions from broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds[1] - The cumulative excess returns of growth and cyclical sectors have recently declined, while the negative excess returns of financial and consumer sectors have significantly recovered[1] Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, during spring market periods, both growth and value styles have performed well, with average maximum gains of 24.0% for growth and 23.5% for value since 2005[2] - The current market structure is showing signs of convergence towards balance as the spring market progresses into its later stages, consistent with historical patterns observed in previous bull markets[2] - The A-share industry rotation strength was at a historical low of 18% as of January 23, indicating a lack of significant rotation, but this metric has recently shown signs of recovery[1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current A-share index has a potential upside of approximately 20%, while the maximum increase since December 17, 2025, has only been 9.8%, indicating room for growth[3] - Continued macroeconomic policy support is expected to provide a fundamental basis for market growth, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market as announced by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development[3] - The upcoming bull market in 2026 is anticipated to enter its later stages, driven by the recovery of macro and micro fundamentals and increased participation from retail investors[3]