Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies over short-term market fluctuations, suggesting that true financial freedom is achieved through consistent, well-researched investments rather than relying on market trends or bull markets [2][3]. Group 1: Market Observations - The stock market has experienced significant growth, with the ChiNext index rising by 125% over five months, indicating a period of extreme market enthusiasm since 2008 [2]. - Historical patterns show that despite numerous bull markets, only a small fraction of investors achieve financial independence, highlighting the disparity between market performance and individual investment success [2]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Investment should be viewed as a long-term endeavor, focusing on achieving financial freedom rather than short-term gains, making market volatility less significant [3]. - The article critiques the current investment literature for being overly theoretical and lacking practical, up-to-date case studies that demonstrate effective investment analysis methods [3]. Group 3: Information Processing - In the era of abundant information, the ability to effectively process and interpret data is crucial for making informed investment decisions, necessitating a robust information management system [4]. - Developing a strong commercial understanding and insight is essential for investors, which requires ongoing personal development and commitment [4]. Group 4: Learning and Growth - The article stresses the long-term benefits of continuous learning in investment, suggesting that the differences in wealth accumulation become pronounced over extended periods, such as five to ten years [4].

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year" plan has been released, which is expected to enhance market risk appetite in the short term due to increased policy clarity [1] - The long-term vision of the "14th Five-Year" plan outlines a modern industrial system blueprint, providing a clear growth path for A-shares, potentially solidifying the foundation for a bull market through technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [1] Group 2 - Key industries to focus on include AI, semiconductors, robotics, batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, machinery, military industry, social services, and large finance [1]

目前是牛市还是牛市已经结束。今天收盘仓位100%了，瑟瑟发抖中。 seeker24680 削腚鳄的牛市，不买时一直都是牛市，一买入牛市就结束了。 e老实和尚 没啥好预测的，跌下来减点盈利而已。 ylshxajh 仓位降到30%了，万一涨了我可以再追。 辙鲋 精英选手热身完毕，大众选手还在检录，看台上的领导的发令枪还没有打响。 ck2008 路林 有没有去过山顶不重要，不要奢望卖在最高价，半山腰返回更安全舒适。 sanbeishui 我手里还有大量破净的股票，牛市就结束了？ 集思小子 牛不牛没法预测，就如同猜硬币正反面 成交量无法骗人，如果没有量，就结束了。 本轮牛市持续与否还是很好判断的，因为399986中证银行指数已经于今年7月10号率先见顶 了。其他主流宽基指数在时间上也不会背离太久，所以本轮牛市已近尾声。 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区，专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下，使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询： 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 飞花逐月 【农行15连阳累涨近25%】财联社10月23日电，农业银行继续走强现 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong performance year-to-date, with the ChiNext Index leading at a 48.09% increase, followed by the Sci-Tech 50 at 47.86% [1] - The communication sector index has the highest weekly gain at 11.55%, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index saw the largest decline at 1.36% [2] - Approximately 59% of respondents reported making profits in the A-share market this week, with 50% of them earning within 10% [6] Group 2 - There is a growing optimism among investors regarding the A-share market, with 79% of respondents believing that the Shanghai Composite Index could reach 4000 points next week [6][8] - The technology sector has seen a significant increase in investor interest, with the proportion of respondents favoring it rising from 32% to 64% [9][10] - The overall risk perception of the A-share market has shifted, with only 16% of respondents considering it high risk, a decrease of 7 percentage points [8]

Uh, meantime, the major averages all hitting record highs following this morning's cooler than expected inflation report. Our next guest says there could be more gains to come into year end. Let's bring in Bespoke Investment Group co-founder Paul Hickeyi.Uh, Paul, good to catch up with you here. I mean, are we just in don't overthink it mode. Um, you know, we're heading into November.Uh, it seems like, uh, the bond market's kind of calm about the inflation threat and, uh, we're already up, you know, pretty ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the presence of positive feedback mechanisms in the stock market, including herd behavior, incremental capital inflows, and leverage trading as amplifiers of trends [1][2][3] - It suggests maintaining high confidence in the current systematic slow bull market while cautiously avoiding increased volatility in high-positioned sectors [6][4] Understanding Positive Feedback - Positive feedback is characterized as a "negative entropy" accumulation, explaining why prices can temporarily deviate from fundamentals, leading to accelerated trends in both bull and bear markets [2][4] - The mechanisms driving positive feedback include behavioral psychology, trading systems, buyer incentives, and the cyclical behavior of listed companies [3][4] Switching Between Strategies - Investors are encouraged to switch between trend-following and reversal strategies based on market conditions, which can help identify signals of market overheating or cooling [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The current A-share market is in a systematic slow bull phase, with expectations of continued incremental capital inflows and wealth effects [6][28] - It is advised to maintain a balanced style allocation while increasing the decision weight of mean-reversion factors [6][42] Sources of Positive Feedback Mechanisms - Herd behavior and incremental capital inflows are driven by fear of missing out and the anxiety of being left behind, leading to a self-reinforcing cycle in bull markets [28][29] - Leverage trading acts as a trend amplifier, where rising stock prices lead to increased borrowing and further price increases [37][38] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that in bull markets, positive feedback can lead to significant price increases, while in bear markets, it can result in accelerated declines [26][40] - The relationship between leverage and market trends is crucial, as high leverage can exacerbate price movements in both directions [42][43]

#图表 #报告 高盛中国策略：为更慢的牛市做准备。None (@None):None ...

比特币的牛市已经结束了，目前已经进入熊市。本轮牛市的牛顶落在 2025/10/06，比特币价格为 126,000。我也不希望唱空自己的事业，但是根据 “四年周期理论”，比特币价格确实已经见顶，我只想把这个事实转达给更多这个周期入圈的新人。在我看来，“比特币减半” 对比特币价格的影响是最大的，它比任何事件都要大很多很多（宏观经济、监管政策、地缘政治、战争和疫情等等）。而 4 年周期理论，就是围绕比特币减半而诞生的周期性理论，它是目前币圈最可靠的周期理论，没有之一。四年周期理论的核心是：“比特币减半” 主导着比特币牛熊转换的节奏，它将比特币一轮牛熊的波动划分成了 4 个部分，分别是：牛初 >> 减半 >> 牛尾 >> 熊市“减半” 之前就会迎来 “牛初”，“减半” 之后就会迎来 “牛尾”，“减半日” 会穿插在整个牛市的 “中部区域”，“牛初” 和 “牛尾” 的持续时间基本差不多，“牛尾” 结束后就会进入长达 1 年的 “熊市”，然后再等待下一轮的 “减半日” 去驱动下一轮的 “牛初” 行情，如此往复，周而复始。从下图我们就可以看到，本轮牛市的 “牛尾” 已经结束，我们正式进入 “熊市” 区域，即使我说的日期可能不 ...

随着股市上涨 ， 经历了长期熊市的老股民有 " 牛市能够撑多久的 " 担心 ， 因此我复盘历史上的牛市 ， 总结其结束原因 。 1 、 1996-2000年的牛市结束 。 96-2000为经济低迷期的股市上长 ， 当时中国经历中国经济软着陆 ， 国有企业经营困难 ， 国企员工下岗危 机 。 股市起到为国有企业解决资金困难的作用 。 中间伴随着98年亚太金融危机 。 股市投机盛行 ， 股市炒到估值很高的地步 ， 到了2001年 ， 中国加入WTO ， 经济飞速增长 ， (1) 、 通缩局面结束 ， 央行结束流动性释放 ， 政策重心从刺激经济走向规范发展 。 实体飞速发展开始 抢夺股市资金 。 (2) 、 随着国有股减持办法出台 ， 股票供过于求 。 (3) 、 政策上股市完成提振经济的历史使命 ， 政策上不再支持股市 ， 转 而打击投机 。 2 、 05-07年 ， 当时美元贬值 ， 人民币升值 ， 人民币资产获得重估 ， 港股已经提前从03-05年提前进入牛市 。 00-07年经济多年高速增 长 ， 是少有的股市和经济同时高速增长时期 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表 ...

10月21日，中共深圳市委金融委员会、福田区人民政府指导，中国保险资产管理业协会特别支持，由深圳市财富管理协会主办的2025香蜜湖财富管理周·湾区财 富管理高质量发展交流会在深圳举行。 在交流会上，中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长彭文生，国信证券首席经济学家、经济研究所所长荀玉根，摩根士丹利首席中国股票策略师 王滢和瑞银财富管理大中华区投资总监及亚太区宏观经济主管胡一帆，四位顶级机构经济学家就全球宏观环境与中国市场投资机会发表最新观点。 多位经济学家认为，在全球投资多元化趋势明显的背景下，中国资产尤其是科技领域正迎来重估机会，而黄金作为避险工具仍具配置价值。 中金彭文生：风险溢价下降推动A股上涨 中金公司首席经济学家彭文生在主题演讲中表示，今年A股市场表现强劲，持续上涨，不是来自于企业盈利的改善，而是主要源于风险溢价下降，反映市场对未来 预期已明显改善。 "去年9月以来，宏观政策变化，加上今年初DeepSeek的出现，对中国资产重估，推动资金转向股票等风险资产，尤其是配置科技领域。"彭文生分析道。 彭文生分析，在新的地缘政治格局下，中国面临两个方面的挑战。一是供给侧的"卡脖子"压力，主要是美 ...