窦长宏表示，中信期货始终以打造专业的期货和衍生品综合服务商为导向，强化"场内+场外"、"期货 +现货"、"境内+境外"的综合服务能力提升，2025年公司保证金规模突破2000亿新高，成交、持仓、交 割规模均同比增长。公司不断做深做实产业服务，服务产业客户超过1万家，实现套保金额近8000亿 元；持续推出贴合产业链风险管理诉求的衍生产品结构和期现结合产品，风险子公司服务实体企业2000 余家，其中大部分为中小微企业，服务实体交易金额超1500亿元。国际化方面，引进来和走出去业务规 模均创历史新高，全球市场的交易结算承做能力持续增强。（记者 陈姗） 经济观察网 11月26日，中信期货董事长窦长宏在中信期货2026年度策略会上指出，2025年世界 在"破"与"立"的百年变局中激荡前行：一方面，旧有的全球秩序与贸易规则面临重构，关税博弈与地缘 竞合交织，加剧了全球产业链的重塑；另一方面，新一轮科技革命与绿色转型正冲破阻力，为全球经济 发展注入新的动能。展望2026年，全球政治经济格局的变化依然"风高浪急"，而国内又恰逢"十五五"开 局之年，在这新旧周期交替的关键节点，更需要我们积极主动把握历史机遇。 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese economy has demonstrated resilience amidst complex external pressures and internal transformation, achieving a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year [1][2] - Key factors contributing to this performance include proactive macro policies, ongoing reforms and opening up, strong consumer spending, and the buffering effect of external shocks on trade [1][3] Economic Cycle Perspective - The current economic situation is viewed as the "fourth adjustment" cycle, characterized by the interplay of external changes, the COVID-19 pandemic, and internal transformation challenges [2][3] - Despite these challenges, the economy has maintained a growth rate of approximately 5%, showcasing significant systemic resilience [2] Transition and Reform - Signs indicate that the current economic adjustment is nearing a resolution, with the real estate market's impact expected to lessen and substantial progress in the transition from old to new economic drivers [3] - Emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and low-altitude economy are becoming significant growth engines [3][4] Technological Revolution Perspective - The ongoing technological revolution presents unprecedented strategic opportunities for China, marking a shift from being a passive observer to an active participant and leader in various sectors [4][5] - The government's strategic focus includes building a modern industrial system and promoting the transformation of traditional industries towards smarter and greener practices [5][6] Infrastructure Development - Significant investments are being made in both traditional and new infrastructure, including renewable energy and storage, to support the ongoing industrial transformation [6] - Major national projects and infrastructure developments are expected to provide robust support for this profound industrial change [6] Geopolitical Context - The evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the dynamics of Sino-American relations, is a critical factor influencing China's economic future [7][8] - A complex relationship characterized by both competition and cooperation is anticipated, with a focus on addressing global challenges while managing core security and technology issues [8] Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese economy is optimistic, with a recognition that while the path may be challenging, the potential for growth and development remains strong [8]

第十九届深圳国际金融博览会暨2025中国金融机构年会日前在深圳举行。在"中国银行业年会"分论坛上，阳光保险集团首席经济学家邱晓华发表题为"中国经济 分析与展望"的主题演讲。 邱晓华指出，过去一年，中国经济顶住了复杂的外部压力，以及内部转型升级的阵痛，在风浪中实现了稳中有进的发展，全年有望实现年初制定的5%左右的GDP增 长目标。 他认为，这份成绩单背后对应四个关键因素：宏观政策积极有为；深化改革和扩大开放持续释放制度红利；消费继续发挥"压舱石"作用；外部冲击的时效性特征使 进出口波动得到缓冲。 展望未来，邱晓华从经济周期、科技革命与地缘政治三个维度进行了深刻剖析。他表示，虽然前行路上仍面临挑战，但中国经济正在积蓄新的发展动能，未来发展 前景值得期待。 自身周期视角：第四次经济调整接近尾声 从中国经济自身的发展周期回顾，改革开放以来的历程并非一帆风顺，而是经历了数次起落调整。 邱晓华在演讲中清晰地梳理了前三个主要周期：80年代末的价格改革闯关、90年代末的亚洲金融危机以及2008年的国际金融危机，每一次中国经济都通过政策的优 化和改革开放的深化，成功走出了困境，并迈上了新的发展台阶。 他认为，当前中国经济正处在 ...

策 略 研 究 策 3、 市场情绪走弱或难在短期扭转，建议控制仓位等待布局机会。 4、 财政发力或是未来支撑美国经济的主要手段。 5、泛能源的配置更多是应对美国 AI 投资预期过热，建议以中短 期交易为主。 6、 长期看好保险，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军贸。 2025 年 11 月 24 日 防御当先，静候良机——周观点 团队成员 投资要点： 近期观点 略 定 期 报 告 1、 强非农和联储放鸽的组合不合逻辑，交易降息致使美国下跌 或是未来一个季度的常态。 2、 科技革命进程或难免"泡沫破灭"时刻，重点是关注科技对 于需求是否构成正向作用。 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、尝试寻找新合力——2025.11.17 2、美国政府最长停摆结束——2025.11.17 3、市场状态高频数据库——11 月第 2 周—— 2025.11.16 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 华福证券 诚信专业发现 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are fluctuating, leading to a recent pullback in the technology sector, while funds are strategically positioning in broad-based investments, as evidenced by the net subscription of 10 million units in the 创50ETF (159681) [1] - Donghai Securities believes that a new wave of AI-driven technological revolution is expected to enhance production efficiency, potentially alleviating inflation caused by rising traditional commodity prices, although the short-term commodity cycle remains under pressure [1] - With a rich array of domestic application scenarios, more industries are likely to be willing to pay for AI to reduce intermediate costs or capture new application peaks, suggesting that maintaining a focus on technology while promoting consumption and countering internal competition is not contradictory [1] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the 创业板50指数 (399673) include 宁德时代 (300750), 中际旭创 (300308), 东方财富 (300059), 新易盛 (300502), 阳光电源 (300274), 胜宏科技 (300476), 汇川技术 (300124), 迈瑞医疗 (300760), 亿纬锂能 (300014), and 同花顺 (300033), collectively accounting for 70.15% of the index [2] - The 创50ETF has a management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05%, closely tracking the performance of the 创业板50指数, which consists of the 50 stocks with the highest average daily trading volume in the ChiNext market [2]

Group 1 - The core theme of the 2026 investment strategy meeting held by CICC is "Seizing Opportunities and Planning for the Future," focusing on market themes and attracting over 4,500 participants [1] - CICC's Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, indicates that the US-China economic relationship has entered a "fragile balance," suggesting that while both countries have enough leverage for negotiations, tail risks still exist [2][3] - Miao believes that the current gold bull market may not be fully realized, presenting good medium to long-term allocation value, especially in light of the accelerating reconstruction of the international monetary order [2] Group 2 - Miao highlights that during technological revolutions, growth often outpaces value, but the current AI revolution may see more frequent style rotations in the stock market due to increased uncertainty in economic activities [3] - The analysis of market styles shows that since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, US stocks have consistently outperformed value stocks, while non-US markets have seen value outperform growth, indicating that not all economies will benefit equally from technological advancements [3] - CICC's Chief Analyst for Nonferrous Metals, Qi Ding, points out that the deepening trend of de-globalization and high US interest rates are leading to significant inflows into gold ETFs, reflecting a "de-dollarization" trend [4] Group 3 - Qi anticipates that basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin will perform well in 2026 due to rising demand from AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end manufacturing, coupled with insufficient capital expenditure on the supply side [4] - The report suggests that strategic metals such as cobalt, natural uranium, tungsten, rare earths, and antimony will maintain a bull market due to increasing control and stockpiling by resource countries, leading to a systematic price increase [4] - Overall, the nonferrous metals sector is expected to experience significant development opportunities, driven by rising prices and supportive policies for critical mineral resources [4]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy meeting held by CICC focused on the theme "Ride the Momentum, Seek New Opportunities," discussing the current bull market and its future direction [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - CICC's chief strategist, Miao Yanliang, indicated that the Sino-U.S. economic relationship has entered a "fragile balance," which implies potential tail risks while also providing a basis for negotiation [4] - The current bull market is attributed to the evolving dynamics of Sino-U.S. relations, transitioning from a phase of mutual benefit (2005-2016) to increased trade friction (2017-2024), and now to a new phase of "fragile balance" since 2025 [4] - Miao believes that this new order allows for a reassessment of China's competitiveness, potentially leading to a confidence premium and new valuation recovery space [4] Group 2: Gold Market Outlook - Miao suggests that the ongoing restructuring of the international monetary order may lead to an underappreciated gold bull market, with gold being a key hedging tool against tail risks [4] - The current bull market in gold is expected to continue, with strong medium to long-term allocation value [4][7] Group 3: Stock Market Trends - The stock market is likely to experience more frequent style rotations, with growth potentially not consistently outperforming value during this AI technology revolution [4] - Historical trends show that technological advancements often create high-growth investment opportunities, but current geopolitical tensions may lead to resource over-investment and efficiency declines [4] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to see significant growth opportunities due to the deepening trend of de-globalization and high U.S. interest rates [7] - CICC's research indicates that basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to perform well in 2026 due to emerging demands from AI, electricity, and new energy sectors [8] - Strategic metals such as cobalt, natural uranium, tungsten, and rare earths are projected to maintain a bull market, with prices expected to rise systematically due to supply-demand imbalances [8]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett announced his retirement during Thanksgiving, leading to significant market reactions and discussions about Berkshire Hathaway's future direction [2] - Berkshire's Q3 report revealed a $10.6 billion reduction in Apple holdings and a substantial increase in investments in Google, indicating a shift in investment strategy under new leadership [2][15] - Historical data shows that Buffett's investment philosophy has evolved from focusing on undervalued tangible assets to recognizing the importance of intangible value [3][19] Investment Philosophy Evolution - Buffett's early investment strategy was heavily influenced by Benjamin Graham, focusing on companies trading below their net liquidation value, primarily during the industrial era [6][14] - Over time, Buffett began to prioritize companies with strong brand value and management quality, reflecting a shift towards recognizing the economic value of goodwill and intangible assets [8][9] - The transition to the information age saw Buffett adapt his investment approach to include technology and light-asset business models, culminating in significant investments in companies like Apple [11][12][13] Current Challenges and Future Outlook - Berkshire Hathaway faces challenges due to its large asset management scale, making it difficult to find suitable investment opportunities in small-cap stocks [15][16] - The company holds $380 billion in cash, over 30% of total assets, as a strategy to maintain a safety margin amid limited investment opportunities [16] - Under new CEO Greg Abel, Berkshire is expanding its investment circle, as evidenced by recent investments in technology companies, indicating a willingness to adapt to changing market dynamics [17][20]

展望2026年，我们正站在新旧周期交替的关键节点。全球政治经济格局的深层重构仍在持续，"风高浪 急"的外部环境仍然存在。与此同时，国内进入"十五五"开局之年，这一关键开局不仅是时间上的序 章，更是发展战略上的全面破局。 在国内外环境依然复杂的背景下，中信期货汇聚顶尖专家与产业翘楚，共同探讨新形势下的机遇和挑 战。本次会议立足全球视野、聚焦前瞻主题，共设一个主论坛和八大分论坛：包括宏观总量、金融、有 色、能源转型、黑色、能化、农业与海外市场等主题，深度探讨宏观环境、资产配置、产业逻辑的全景 演变，洞察全球市场脉动，为投资者呈现一场思想交锋与智慧共鸣的盛会。 中信期货将继续秉承"合规、诚信、专业、稳健、担当"的精神，以研究驱动服务升级，以专业赋能行业 发展。面对新周期的浩荡风潮，中信期货愿与市场同行者携手共进，以专业为舵，以远见为帆，破浪前 行，扬帆起航！ 潮起东方，扬帆破浪。2025年11月26日-27日，中信期货以"破浪前行，扬帆起航"为主题的2026年度策 略会将在上海浦东嘉里大酒店隆重举行。 回望2025年，百年未有之变局进一步演化。世界在"破"与"立"的激荡中前行：一方面，旧有的全球治理 秩序与贸易规则 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades India's stock market rating to "Overweight" (OW) due to supportive economic growth policies, earnings recovery, and reasonable valuations [24]. Core Insights - The artificial intelligence cycle is still in its early stages, with institutional positions not fully allocated, and capital flows are expected to become favorable before year-end [5][6]. - The report suggests that the stock market has a potential upside of 5-10% before the end of the year, driven by broad market participation [6]. - Concerns about credit markets are impacting alternative asset management stocks, particularly those with significant private credit exposure, but the overall impact on the credit market remains limited [21]. - The report highlights the significant investment opportunities in the electricity and water sectors due to increasing demand and aging infrastructure [18]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report notes that the current market volatility is typical for this time of year, rather than abnormal [1][19]. - There is a comparison of the current NDX with past technology bubbles, indicating that while some characteristics are similar, the current valuations are still below historical peaks [10][11]. Economic Indicators - The report estimates that AI investments will create $20 trillion in GDP economic value, with $8 trillion flowing into U.S. companies as capital income [13]. - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with expectations of potential salary cuts in December [31]. Emerging Markets - India's stock market has underperformed compared to other emerging markets, but recent trends suggest a potential recovery driven by earnings and foreign investment [23][24]. - The report indicates that emerging markets have seen strong performance overall, with a 30% increase this year, while India's market has only seen a 3% increase [23]. Consumer Behavior - There are signs of cracks in the U.S. consumer market, with hedge funds reducing their holdings in consumer service stocks to a five-year low [26]. - The report discusses the impact of inflation and economic conditions on different income groups, suggesting a mixed outlook for consumer spending [28][29].