韩国财政经济部13日发布《最新经济动向》2月刊，连续第四个月作出经济复苏的判断，认为在内需扩 大和 半导体出口向好的带动下，经济复苏态势延续。从各项指标看，去年12月工业生产环比增长 1.5%，服务业生产增长1.1%； 建筑工程完成量增长12.1%；设备投资下降3.6%；零售销售额提升 0.9%。1月消费者信心指数为110.8，较前一月上升0.9个百分点；居民消费价格指数上涨2%；就业人口 同比增加10.8万人。 ...

Group 1 - The core trading logic on Wall Street has shifted from identifying AI winners to indiscriminately selling potential AI losers, driven by fears of traditional business models being disrupted by AI advancements [1][2][3] - The recent sell-off has affected various sectors, including SaaS software, insurance brokerage, wealth management, and real estate services, with notable declines such as a 14% drop for JLL and a 12% drop for CBRE, marking their largest single-day declines since the pandemic [1][2] - Gabelli Funds' manager John Belton highlighted that any company with potential disruption risk is facing indiscriminate selling [3] Group 2 - In the A-share market, leveraged funds have begun to reduce their positions after a period of aggressive buying, with net selling occurring on 9 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 974 billion yuan in sales [3][10] - Major companies experiencing net selling include Kweichow Moutai, Industrial Fulian, and Zhongji Xuchuang, with net selling amounts of -27.88 billion yuan, -23.49 billion yuan, and -23.27 billion yuan respectively [7][8] - Despite the reduction in positions in broad-based ETFs, there has been significant buying in specific ETFs such as Hai Futong Zhongzheng Short Bond ETF and E Fund Zhongzheng Overseas Internet ETF [10] Group 3 - The market is showing a strong interest in sectors related to economic recovery and domestic demand improvement, with significant inflows into the chemical sector and other related industries [17][18] - The recent price increases across various sectors, including upstream resources and consumer goods, indicate a potential inflationary trend, with PPI data showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a narrowing year-on-year decline to -1.4% [21][22] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost consumer spending, with major companies launching significant promotional campaigns and government initiatives to stimulate the economy [26][27]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity[4] - The CPI growth rate for January 2026 is 0.2%, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival[6] - The PPI for January 2026 is -1.4%, with a narrowing decline of 0.5 percentage points, reflecting improved internal structure and demand driven by technology[6] Trade and Investment - In December 2025, China's total imports and exports amounted to $601.42 billion, with exports increasing by 6.6% and imports rising by 5.7% year-on-year[20] - The M1 growth rate in December 2025 fell to 3.8%, while M2 grew by 8.5%, leading to an expanding M1-M2 gap of -4.7%[34] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with new home prices averaging 17,114 RMB per square meter, a month-on-month increase of 0.18%[48] Sector Performance - The service sector's business activity index has stabilized around 49.5% for three consecutive months, supported by financial activities and holiday-related consumption[4] - The consumer goods sector experienced a decline of 2.2 percentage points, primarily due to a drop in clothing orders[27] - The equipment sector shows resilience, with significant demand for computers and automation equipment, indicating a positive trend in industrial investment[28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation with expectations for a positive post-holiday market driven by liquidity improvements and policy expectations [3][10] - The report highlights that the market is experiencing cautious sentiment ahead of the holiday, with a notable focus on cyclical stocks such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals, which have shown strength [5][9] - It is noted that the trading volume has been around 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a prevailing wait-and-see attitude among investors, indicating that there is still uncertainty in the market [3][10] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that post-holiday, there is an expectation for increased liquidity and potential policy benefits from upcoming important meetings, which could stimulate investment opportunities in related sectors [3][10] - Specific sectors such as solid-state batteries, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals are identified as key areas to watch for potential growth, particularly as economic recovery signals strengthen [7][9] - The report advises investors to adopt a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing high prices, suggesting a focus on small-cap growth stocks and sectors with clear industrial catalysts [3][10]

金融研究 2026年2月12日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：2 月 11 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数上涨 0.09%，报收 4131.99 点；深成 指下跌 0.35%，报收 14160.93 点；创业板指下跌 1.08%，报收 3284.74 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.11%， 报收 1455.11 点。市场成交 20,010 亿元，较前日减少 1,237 亿元。行业板块方面，建筑材料(+3.29%)， 有色金属(+2.39%)，石油石化(+2.18%)表现较好；通信(-2.17%)，传媒(-1.99%)，社会服务(-1.74%) 表现一般。从市场强弱看，IC>IH>IM>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,047/193/3,236。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-221、-212、40、393 亿元，分别变动-106、-6、+12、+99 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为-1.49、-10.59、-0.98 与-2.94 点，基差年化收益率分别 为 0.21%、1.45%、0.24%与 1.08%，三年期历史 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a short-term stabilization due to supply contraction outpacing demand contraction, but there are risks of a pullback after the holiday [3][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current lead market shows a tight balance with supply contraction occurring faster than demand contraction. Smelting enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and recycled lead companies are halting operations due to environmental and profit pressures, leading to a significant drop in production capacity [3]. - Domestic mines are on winter break, and import trading is sluggish, resulting in a phase of tightening raw material supply. On the demand side, the upcoming Spring Festival is causing battery manufacturers to halt operations, and overall purchasing volume is gradually declining [3]. Industry Chain Dynamics - All segments of the industry chain are entering a pre-holiday winding down phase. Upstream mining is reducing output, and raw material transportation is affected by logistics during the Spring Festival. Midstream smelting enterprises are seeing a general decline in operating rates, while downstream battery manufacturers have high inventory levels and have ceased large-scale purchases [4]. Price Trend Forecast - It is expected that lead prices will maintain a strong oscillating trend before the holiday, with the main contract for lead in Shanghai projected to fluctuate between 16,600 and 16,800 yuan per ton. This rebound is primarily driven by the short-term supply-demand tight balance, but the potential for price increases is limited due to reduced trading volume and capital withdrawal before the holiday [5]. Operational Recommendations - Investors are advised to approach the current rebound rationally, primarily adopting a light position and avoiding chasing high prices before the holiday. Industry players may consider locking in orders when prices stabilize to mitigate post-holiday risks. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work and inventory changes after the holiday, waiting for clearer supply-demand dynamics before making further moves [6].

金融研究 2026年2月11日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：2 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.13%，报收 点；深成 10 4128.37 | | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 0.02%，报收 14210.63 点；创业板指下跌 0.37%，报收 3320.54 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.91%， | | | 报收 1471.5 点。市场成交 21,247 亿元，较前日减少 1,454 亿元。行业板块方面，传媒(+4.27%)， | | | 综合(+2.15%)，家用电器(+1.11%)涨幅居前；房地产(-1.4%)，食品饮料(-1.31%)，商贸零售(-0.87%) | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IH>IF>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,192/159/3,122。沪深两市，机构、 | | | 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-115、-207、28、294 亿元，分别变动-331、-108、+194、 | | 股指期货 | +245 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 21.3、15 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that South Korea's tax revenue for 2025 is projected to increase by 37.4 trillion won (approximately 25.66 billion USD) due to improved corporate profitability [1][4] - The government's tax revenue for the previous year was 373.9 trillion won, reflecting an 11.1% increase compared to 336.5 trillion won in 2024 [1][4] - The 2025 tax revenue forecast is 1.8 trillion won higher than the revised estimate from June of the previous year, but still 8.5 trillion won lower than the original budget estimate of 382.4 trillion won [1][4] Group 2 - Corporate income tax is expected to grow by 35.3% year-on-year, reaching 84.6 trillion won in 2025 [2][5] - Personal income tax revenue is projected to increase by 11.1% year-on-year, totaling 130.5 trillion won, driven by a 1.7% increase in employment and a 7.4% rise in average wages [2][5] Group 3 - Capital gains tax has increased by 3.2 trillion won due to a rise in overseas stock trading volume [3][6] - Value-added tax revenue has decreased by 3.7% compared to the previous year, attributed to an increase in export-related tax refunds [3][6] - Securities transaction tax has dropped by 27.7% due to a reduction in tax rates [3][6]

2月8日， 新华社曼谷2月9日报道，泰国选举委员会9日公布的初步计票结果显示，自豪泰党在国会下议院选举中 获得193席，成为下议院第一大党，反映出选民在此次选举中的核心诉求——政局稳定。下一步，自豪 泰党有两条路径可顺利组阁，但在经济、外交、安全三大议题上面临复杂考验。 泰国看守政府总理、自豪泰党党首阿努廷（前左二）在曼谷出席新闻发布会。新华社记者 万后德 摄 一大选民诉求 泰国选举委员会9日公布的94%计票结果显示，自豪泰党获下议院500个议席中的193席。人民党和为泰 党分别以118席和74席排名第二、第三位。这一结果与选前民调预期差距较大，此前大部分民调结果显 示人民党领先。 泰国舆论普遍认为，作为上届执政联盟成员以及领导看守政府的主要政党，自豪泰党的胜出，反映了选 民在当前经济增速放缓、民生压力上升、安全议题突出的背景下，以稳定政局为一大优先考虑。 从选举结果上看，自豪泰党在地方选区优势明显。在400个选区议席中，自豪泰党共获得174个席位，几 乎是人民党的两倍。虽然曼谷33个席位全部属于人民党，但自豪泰党在大城府、攀牙府、甲米府等20个 府赢得全部席位。 分析认为，作为保守派的自豪泰党在竞选中并未提 ...

近期英镑兑美元整体呈现窄幅震荡态势，汇率波动核心聚焦于英国央行与美联储的货币政策分化，叠加 英国通胀与经济数据的反复，短期承压迹象明显，中长期走势仍存在不确定性。 英国央行近期的利率决议成为影响英镑走势的关键节点。在本年度首次货币政策会议上，英国央行以微 弱多数决定维持现有基准利率不变，多名委员投票支持降息，这一超出市场预期的内部分歧引发英镑短 线承压下行，后续盘中进一步走低，创下阶段性新低。 与英国央行的偏宽松倾向形成对比，美联储的鹰派政策预期持续为美元提供支撑，进一步压制英镑兑美 元走势。近期美联储多名官员释放鹰派信号，强调在通胀未显著回落前不会支持降息，对通胀的担忧远 超劳动力市场波动。同时，市场对美联储相关人事提名的预期也给予美元正面支撑，被解读为美联储将 维持高利率更长时间的信号。尽管美国近期经济数据呈现分化，但整体仍具一定韧性，未改变市场对美 联储降息节奏放缓的判断。 从近期汇率走势来看，英镑兑美元呈现震荡偏弱的整体格局。回顾近期走势，英镑兑美元曾一度冲高至 阶段性高点，但随后受英国央行降息预期升温、美联储鹰派表态等因素影响，逐步进入回调通道。技术 面来看，短期均线呈下行排列，空头占据一定优势，尚 ...