金融研究 2025年9月29日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：9 月 26 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.65%，报收 3828.11 点；深成 指下跌 1.76%，报收 13209 点；创业板指下跌 2.6%，报收 3151.53 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.6%， 报收 1450.82 点。市场成交 21,661 亿元，较前日减少 2,257 亿元。行业板块方面，石油石化(+1.17%)， 环保(+0.38%)，公用事业(+0.35%)涨幅居前；计算机(-3.26%)，电子(-2.75%)，传媒(-2.65%)跌幅居 前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,801/216/3,412。沪深两市，机构、主力、 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-428、-274、141、561 亿元，分别变动-371、-95、+103、+362 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 126.39、105.11、17.65 与-2.18 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-12.2%、-10.37%、-2.77%与 0.53%，三年期 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：ETF炼金师） 市场回顾：在最新交易周中，A股市场表现出强劲的反弹趋势，主要股指持续上扬。其中，上证50ETF （510050）上涨1.05%，沪深300ETF（510300）上涨1.02%，中证500ETF（510500）上涨1.03%。创业 板ETF（159915）表现尤为突出，涨幅达到2.19%，而深证100ETF（399106）和科创板50ETF （588000）则分别上涨了1.55%和6.50%。 截至9月25日，沪深两市的融资余额达24274.11亿元，较前一周上升1.92%；融券余额则为169.56亿元， 周环比上升2.30%。期权市场方面，上证50ETF的隐含波动率为17.62%，而沪深300ETF为18.14%，两者 均显示出隐波与历史波动的价差有所变化。 财经要闻：在国新办最新发布会上，央行行长潘功胜透露，截至今年6月末，我国银行业总资产接近470 万亿元，继续稳居全球第一。同时，我国的股票与债券市场规模也位居世界第二，外汇储备则连续20年 保持世界第一。此信息的发布进一步巩固了市场对中国金融稳定性和增长潜力的信心。 值得注意的是，A股"9.24"行情已迎来一周年， ...

而面对居民消费需求的持续低迷，有不少专家提出建议："应把银行存款的利率降为零，这样就可以迫使老百姓把钱拿出来用于投资和消费。"但事实上，即 使把银行存款利率降到零，居民还是会把钱存起来不敢消费。 近些年，国内经济总体呈现"稳中有升"的趋势。数据显示：2025年上半年GDP同比增长5.3%。但令人感到奇怪的是，居民消费需求却持续低迷，像汽车、小 家电、房子等商品价格都处于下降的通道之中。同时，居民存款总额却在持续上升。2025年上半年，中国居民银行存款暴增10.77万亿元，创下历史性新 高！ 这主要是因为，居民存钱的目的就是为了应对失业、疾病等不时之需，以及应对将来养老、子女教育、买房首付等消费支出。所以，不管银行怎么降息，多 数居民存款意愿不会改变。实际上，现在影响居民消费的原因主要有三个： 第二，房价削弱了国民消费能力 ①社会贫富差距过大；②房价削弱了国民消费能力；③电商的过度发展。而这三大"毒瘤"导致了老百姓的钱都被吸走了，居民没钱消费、不敢消费。如果这 三大"毒瘤"不除，国内经济要想靠居民消费来拉动经济增长是非常困难的。 第一，社会贫富差距过大 虽然，我国GDP蛋糕越来越大，但主要还是被政府、企业给拿走 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected order of asset performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is coming, providing policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan of financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data in July - August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the expected GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After the decisions at home and abroad, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the over - crowdedness of small - cap funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume declined slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the insufficient liquidity in the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factors [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: In September, the US interest - rate cut cycle restarted, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence increased. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: In the third quarter, the peak season turned to the off - season, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the rate of freight decline in September, the changes in the market, and policy dynamics [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The effect of "anti - involution" still exists, the steel mills' restocking is obvious, and the prices are volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather factors, and port ore inventory changes [7]. - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is stable, and the spot price is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supported by the peak - season expectation, the futures price recovers from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The peak - season expectation is positive, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the spot price will rise significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, and the price is driven by the glass market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper and Alumina**: There are new disturbances in copper ore supply, and the copper price is volatile upward. The alumina price is under pressure due to weak spot and inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment for copper is volatile upward and for alumina is volatile, with different focus points such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [7]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro changes and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead decreases, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on supply disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining makes the nickel price highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by costs, the price rises significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the price is high and volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply continues to increase, suppressing the price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on supply reduction and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, supply, and new technologies [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns re - emerge, and supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The chemical demand weakens, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt - fuel oil spread declines rapidly. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the price rises. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the contradiction between near - and far - term contracts is large. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of over - reaction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market sentiment is affected by long - term inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device implementation [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand situation weakens. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more enterprise production cuts, but the long - term oversupply situation remains. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders improve slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on downstream yarn mill purchasing and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is short - term replenishment, but the medium - long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The spread with PP fluctuates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic macro factors [9]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price declines. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment improves, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With weak reality and strong expectation, the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Driven by the expected alumina production increase, the price rebounds. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The risk of price fluctuations increases, and attention should be paid to trade policies. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: After the impact of Argentine soybean exports, the price rebounds from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade frictions [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The arrival of raw materials at North China deep - processing plants hits a new low, and the price rebounds slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, macro factors, and weather [9]. - **Pig**: The near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and the reverse spread continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Positions are reduced before the holiday, and a wait - and - see attitude is maintained. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The price continues to be weak, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The price fluctuates at a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The main contract of pulp is volatile, and the pressure on the 01 contract is more obvious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Downstream orders are weak, and market contradictions are not prominent. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production [9]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on shipment and delivery volumes [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Fed's rate - cut will drive a new round of global liquidity easing, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. Liquidity easing trading dominates the market, and the risk of Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to US September non - farm and inflation data released in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - In Q3, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the expected GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in Q4 will increase [6]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may enter a short - term adjustment phase. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. The allocation value of bonds increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and bonds should be allocated equally with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4, with the risk of premature trading of recovery expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, providing policy space for China's rate cuts. The market is dominated by liquidity - easing trading. The risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. Attention should be paid to the impact of rate cuts on the US real economy. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and market expectations for a 25 - bps rate cut are high. Pay attention to US September non - farm and inflation data. Historically, the transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes 2 - 3 months [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Q3 economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in Q4. However, the annual 5% GDP growth target can still be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend continues but slows. The allocation value of bonds increases, and they should be allocated equally with equities. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, with rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery - expectation trading [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence; for stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy; for treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. All are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise with a volatile trend, as the Fed restarted the rate - cut cycle in September and the risk of its independence has increased [7]. - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in Q3 fades and loading is under pressure, it lacks upward momentum and is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline in September and policy dynamics [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, the fundamentals still provide support. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Driven by a weak dollar and the fermentation of reverse - invoicing issues, base metals tend to strengthen. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some showing an upward - trending volatility [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the decline of coking coal has affected the chemical industry. Most chemical products are expected to be volatile, with different market logics and influencing factors [9]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

瑞典国家经济研究所官网9月24日发布《瑞典经济报告》称，家庭消费已连续四个季度增长，且家庭对 经济的看法在夏季期间持续改善。报告预测，家庭支出将成为经济持续复苏的重要推动力。报告表示， 今年下半年的GDP增速将高于上半年，明年经济增速将进一步加快，这主要得益于扩张性预算带来的家 庭收益，然而经济衰退要到2027年才会真正结束。明年，由于食品增值税和电力税的临时下调，通胀率 将远低于2%。然而，这种暂时的低通胀并不会促使央行进一步降息。报告表示，大规模的债务融资国 防支出将导致政府净贷款在未来多年持续为负。 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - In August, both the production and demand sides of the domestic economy faced pressure, but there were also structural highlights. The production side maintained some growth in high - value - added industries and policy - supported areas, but the overall growth rate declined due to the decline in external demand and production cuts in some industries. The consumption recovery process slowed down, and the demand overdraft effect of automobiles and durable consumer goods gradually emerged, with consumer confidence not effectively restored. The investment growth rate further slowed down, mainly dragged down by real estate and manufacturing investments. There is an increasing need for policy reinforcement, possibly focusing on promoting service consumption and accelerating the implementation of major projects to stimulate domestic demand and boost economic growth [2]. Group 2: August Overall Economic Operation Overview - In August, both supply and demand sides of the domestic economy weakened. The production side maintained some resilience driven by high - value - added industries and policy - supported areas, while the demand side was weak, with a slowdown in consumption recovery and a general decline in investment growth. The real estate industry had a more prominent drag effect. There were obvious differences within the service industry, and some industries related to consumption and business still faced recovery pressure. Overall, weak domestic and external demand and ineffective restoration of consumer confidence were the main constraints on economic recovery [5]. Group 3: Production Side - In August, the industrial added - value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, lower than the previous month and the seasonal level. Industries benefiting from policy support, such as railway transport equipment manufacturing, maintained strong growth. However, external demand pressure was obvious, with the export growth rate dropping from 7.2% in the previous month to 4.4%, and the export delivery value turning negative. Some upstream industries slowed down production expansion due to the "anti - involution" policy and cost pressure. The service production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, also lower than the previous month. High - value - added industries like information technology and financial services grew rapidly, but the growth rate of the leasing and business service industry slowed down due to external demand uncertainty [6]. Group 4: Consumption Side - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the previous value. The consumption recovery process was affected by the gradual withdrawal of the "trade - in" subsidy policy, and the growth rate of automobile consumption slowed down. The growth rate of durable consumer goods such as home appliances and furniture also declined, reflecting the gradual emergence of the demand overdraft effect. Catering consumption was relatively strong, with the growth rate rising from the previous month. Overall, consumption was sluggish, income expectations were weak, and consumer confidence was not effectively restored. In terms of consumption structure, the growth rate of essential consumer goods slowed down, while some upgraded consumer goods showed certain growth resilience. Overall consumption power was insufficient, especially in the automobile and real - estate - related consumption fields [11]. Group 5: Investment Side - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was only 0.5%, lower than the previous month. Manufacturing investment was weak, mainly due to insufficient external demand and declining business confidence. Infrastructure investment, although supported by policies to some extent, continued to slow down due to factors such as capital constraints, seasonal construction factors, and project implementation lags. Real - estate investment remained in a slump, with an 12.9% year - on - year decline in August, and its drag effect on overall investment became more prominent. The weakness of manufacturing investment was affected by the "anti - involution" policy and the weakening effect of equipment renewal policies. Infrastructure investment was limited by the lag in capital implementation and extreme weather affecting construction progress. The real - estate market remained in an adjustment period, although policy relaxation in some cities might boost local market confidence [16]. Group 6: Demand - Side Policy - Given the current economic weakness, there is a further need for policy reinforcement. The growth rates of pro - cyclical demands such as exports, total retail sales of consumer goods, and manufacturing investment have declined, creating conditions for policy reinforcement. Policy reinforcement may focus on the demand side, especially promoting service consumption and accelerating the implementation of major projects to stimulate domestic demand recovery. Policy reinforcement may promote terminal demand growth, especially in the service consumption field. The appropriate advancement of major projects can support the investment side. In the manufacturing industry, policy reinforcement should focus on the demand side to drive overall manufacturing growth by promoting the consumption demand of high - value - added industries [23].

金融研究 2025年9月25日 星期四 （一） 股指期现货市场表现 表 1：股指期现货市场表现 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 成交量 | 成交额 | 持仓量 | 日增仓量 | 结算价 | 基差 | 基差年化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | 收益率% | | IC2510 | 中证 2510 | 3.51 | 7280.6 | 246.6 | 47587 | 6834153 | 64397 | -6488 | 7260.4 | 43.1 | -12.3 | | IC2511 | 中证 2511 | 3.47 | 7213.8 | 241.8 | 6869 | 978185 | 6610 | 3269 | 7190.4 | 109.9 | -10.1 | | IC2512 | 中证 2512 | 3.90 | 7157.0 | 268.8 | 103608 | 14614185 | 136396 | -2404 | 71 ...

Market Overview - On September 24, the A-share market opened lower but rose slightly throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3836 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64 points, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.80% to 13,356.14 points[6] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 23,475 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[6] Sector Performance - Semiconductor, battery, computer equipment, and electronic chemicals sectors performed well, while tourism, banking, coal, and shipbuilding sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with electronic chemicals, semiconductors, and photovoltaic equipment leading the gains[6] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.61 times and 49.28 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The trading volume has consistently exceeded 20 trillion yuan in recent days, indicating strong market activity[3] Economic and Policy Outlook - The State Council has emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery, with multiple favorable policies in place to support the market[3] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on structural policies[3] Foreign Investment Trends - In August, foreign investors net bought domestic stocks and bonds, reflecting confidence in Chinese assets[3] - The shift of household savings towards capital markets is creating a continuous source of incremental funds[3] Market Strategy - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blindly chasing high prices, focusing instead on structural optimization to seize market opportunities[3] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the semiconductor, battery, computer equipment, and securities sectors[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips. In the short term, the market shows signs of cooling [2]. - For the short - term, be bullish on bonds, as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; for the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 23, A - share four major stock indexes had a mild adjustment. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3821.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29% to 13119.82 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.21% to 3114.55 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.1% to 1407.3 points. Market turnover was 25,185 billion yuan, an increase of 3,760 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, banks (+1.52%), coal (+1.11%), and power equipment (+0.43%) led the gains; social services (-3.11%), commerce and retail (-2.9%), and computer (-2.39%) led the losses [1]. - In terms of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,107/58/4,264 respectively. Net capital inflows of institutions, main players, large investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -416, -345, 135, and 627 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -404, -209, +150, and +462 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 199.47, 184.31, 24.38, and -4.49 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -17.71%, -16.89%, -3.55%, and 1.01% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 9%, 5%, 25%, and 57% respectively [1]. - The performance details of various stock index futures contracts are shown in Table 1, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [5]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On September 23, the bond market performed weakly. The implied interest rates of the active contracts of two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year bonds increased compared with the previous day [2]. - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - The performance details of various treasury bond futures contracts are shown in Table 2, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [6]. - The figure shows the term structure of treasury bond spot [7][8]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [9]. - The short - term capital interest rate market changes are shown in Table 3, including SHIBOR overnight rates [9]. - The figure shows the domestic meso - level data tracking, which is based on the comparison of meso - level data of each module with the same period in the past five years, scored according to the degree of change [10][11][12].