Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decline in the issuance of new public funds, with a 32.35% decrease in the number of new funds launched compared to the previous week, and an increase in the average subscription period to 23.65 days [1][3] - The total number of new funds launched this week is 23, with 12 being equity products, which is 52.17% of the total, marking a rare occurrence of being below 60% [3][4] - The bond fund issuance has shown a counter-trend recovery, with 7 new bond funds launched, maintaining the peak level of the past 11 weeks [3] Group 2 - The FOF (Fund of Funds) category has remained active, with 3 new FOF funds launched this week, marking the 8th consecutive week of new fund issuance, and the total number of new FOF funds this year has reached 76, more than double the total from last year [3][4] - The recent cooling in the fund issuance market is primarily attributed to the weak performance of the equity market, which has significantly dampened investor enthusiasm for equity assets [3][4] - Market volatility has weakened the risk appetite of investors, leading to a decrease in the willingness of public fund institutions to launch new equity products [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [8][9][10] - The outlook for stock index options is "oscillating" [9] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed down, and the hedging force has taken profit. The market is waiting for further catalysts to rise. It is necessary to observe policy signals and the sustainability of the main line [3][9] - The sentiment in the stock index options market has improved with reduced volatility. Attention should be paid to the lower support level. For those with stock positions, continue the covered call strategy, and for those without positions, consider selling put options after confirming the support [4][9] - Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank's operations have maintained the balance of the short - term capital market. Although the bond market direction is unclear, it is expected to remain oscillating with a slight upward bias in the future [5][10][11] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The current month's basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed at - 12.85, - 6.16, - 41.37, and - 61.21 points respectively, with changes of - 40.44, - 20.91, - 98.36, and - 123.71 points compared to the previous trading day [8] - The inter - month spreads (current month - next month) of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 15.8, 2.8, 50, and 65.4 points respectively, with环比 changes of - 37, - 21.4, - 54.4, and - 46.6 points [8] - The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 7338, - 5627, - 12741, and - 21593 lots respectively [8] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and oscillated on Monday, and the market stopped falling. The hedging sentiment eased. The decline of US technology stocks slowed down, reducing the domestic liquidity pressure. High - beta sectors led the rebound, and the short - selling profit - taking in the futures market promoted the convergence of the basis discount [3][9] - The secondary upward movement of the market still awaits event or main - line signals. Tactically, continue the dumbbell configuration in the short - term and observe the window for layout switching. The operation suggestion is to combine the dividend ETF with long positions in IM [3][9] Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued the defensive sentiment at the opening but stabilized in the afternoon. The CSI 1000 rose 1.26%. The trading volume in the options market was 8344 million yuan, a 46.10% decrease from the previous day. The implied volatility index decreased by an average of 1.53%. The short - term defensive behavior in the market weakened, and there was a new trend of selling options entering the market. Multiple varieties' position PCRs hit the bottom [4][9] - For those with stock positions, continue the covered call strategy to increase returns. For those without positions, considering the high skewness level of each variety, sell put options after confirming the lower support [4][9] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter was 79246, 46495, 23207, and 64907 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 23755, - 17953, - 6065, and - 32915 lots. The positions were 68863, 42749, 11765, and 47308 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 31002, - 12913, - 10325, and - 12009 lots [10] - The current - quarter to next - quarter spreads of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.170, - 0.105, 0.042, and 0.180 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.020, - 0.055, - 0.008, and - 0.020 yuan [10] - The cross - variety spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, and T*3 - TL in the current quarter were 103.275, 99.030, 301.335, and 209.755 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.005, - 0.035, - 0.075, and 0.035 yuan [10] - The current - quarter basis of T, TF, TS, and TL was 0.023, - 0.022, - 0.009, and 0.115 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.064, - 0.050, 0.000, and - 0.049 yuan [10] - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of 5.57 billion yuan, and the MLF operation had a net investment of 10 billion yuan. The capital market remained balanced. The stock - bond seesaw effect was evident, but the bond market direction is unclear due to differences in expectations for loose monetary policy and the undetermined fund fee regulations. It is expected that the bond market will remain oscillating with a slight upward bias [5][10][11] - For trend strategies, expect the market to oscillate with a slight upward bias. For hedging strategies, pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. For basis strategies, focus on positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening. For curve strategies, appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [11] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week includes US PPI, retail sales, GDP, PCE price index, China's industrial enterprise profits, and the EU's economic sentiment index [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The installed capacity of solar power and wind power increased significantly. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [13] - Affected by the decline in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered on November 24 [13] - On November 25, the central bank carried out a 1 - year MLF operation of 1 trillion yuan with a net investment of 10 billion yuan [13]

Market Overview - The bond market maintained a volatile trend last week, with the 1-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.96 basis points to 1.40%, while the 10-year yield slightly increased to 1.82%, and the 30-year yield rose by 0.95 basis points to 2.16% [2][4] - The overall bond market continued its oscillation, with short-term bonds performing better than long-term ones, and the expected "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds did not materialize due to the weak stock market [4] - Short-term and medium-term momentum in the bond market is insufficient, and disturbances are expected to rise due to government debt payments and the maturity of a large number of open market operations [4] Public Fund Market Dynamics - E Fund's Ruiyi Ying'an FOF raised over 5.8 billion, marking the largest fundraising for a new fund in the fourth quarter, and is part of the招商银行 "TREE Long-term Profit Plan" [6] - The focus of these funds is primarily on low to medium-risk multi-asset products, indicating a trend towards conservative investment strategies in the public fund market [6] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Enhanced Index rose by 0.02% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.32% since inception [3] - The Short-term Bond Fund Preferred Index also increased by 0.02%, with a cumulative return of 4.50% since inception [3] - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Preferred Index rose by 0.03%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.85% since inception [3] - Conversely, the Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Preferred Index fell by 0.53%, with a cumulative return of 4.23% since inception [3] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Preferred Index decreased by 1.13%, with a cumulative return of 6.89% since inception [3] - The REITs Fund Preferred Index dropped by 1.17%, but has a cumulative return of 32.24% since inception [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views Stock Index - A-share market oscillated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points and the ChiNext Index dropping 4.02%. After the sharp decline in overseas markets, the expectation of interest rate cuts increased, leading to a market repair. The domestic market may follow suit. The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may rebound, and the outlook is for range-bound oscillations [10]. Treasury Bonds - After the previous stage of treasury bond trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has basically ended. The market has entered a pattern of calm observation and range-bound oscillations. The short - term trading logic will revolve around news disturbances, key economic data releases, and policy expectations such as fund redemption fee rate adjustments. The more certain medium - to long - term trading window awaits clear policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference. The stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened, and treasury bonds may oscillate [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Review**: A - shares oscillated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points and the ChiNext Index dropping 4.02% [10]. - **Core View**: Overseas market decline and increased interest - rate - cut expectations may lead to domestic market repair. - **Technical Analysis**: KDJ indicator shows potential market index rebound. - **Strategy Outlook**: Range - bound oscillations [10]. Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Review**: Most treasury bond futures closed lower. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.31% to 115.570 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.04% to 108.430 yuan, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06% to 105.855 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat at 102.460 yuan [11]. - **Core View**: The most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound oscillation pattern. The short - term trading logic focuses on news and policy expectations, while the medium - to long - term depends on the December Central Economic Work Conference. The stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate. - **Strategy Outlook**: Oscillatory operation [11]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In October, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, lower than the consensus expectations of Bloomberg and Reuters (49.6%). Seasonally, it fell more significantly than usual. The absolute value of 49.0% is the lowest for the same period since 2013, and the PMI of large enterprises dropped to 49.9%, returning to the contraction range [18]. CPI - In October 2025, the year - on - year CPI was +0.2% and the month - on - month was +0.2%. The year - on - year PPI was - 2.1% and the month - on - month was +0.1%. The recovery of CPI and PPI was due to seasonal factors, low - base effects, and "anti - involution" [21]. Import and Export - In October 2025, China's exports were $305.35 billion, imports were $215.28 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.07 billion. The significant decline in export growth was due to the high - base effect of the previous year and being weaker than the seasonal level, with the overdraft effect of pre - export orders showing [23][24]. Industrial Added Value - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.9% and the service industry production index dropped to 4.6%. Both production data had year - on - year growth rates below 5% for the first time since September 2024. Production weakness was related to high bases and reduced export support, and the decline was consistent with PMI performance. Most product output growth rates declined, except for some like ethylene and integrated circuits [28]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased 1.7% year - on - year, and in October, it is estimated to have declined 11.2% year - on - year, the second - lowest growth rate since February 2020. The decline was mainly due to weakening internal impetus, with both private and public investment growth rates falling. In terms of expenditure directions and major categories, most investment growth rates declined, except for equipment purchases [31]. Social Retail - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods dropped to 2.9%, and that of retail sales above the designated size dropped to 1.6%. Consumption maintained positive growth under the high - base environment of the previous year, with a slight increase in the two - year compound growth rate compared to September. The growth rate of optional consumption declined further, and the contribution rate of categories related to the "trade - in" policy to retail sales growth turned negative for the first time since September last year. The early "Double 11" on some platforms boosted the growth rate of essential consumption [34]. Social Financing - In October, the new social financing was 0.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6 trillion yuan. Government bonds and credit were the main drags. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.5%, and the credit growth rate in the social financing caliber dropped to 6.3%. The M1 growth rate declined as expected, but non - bank deposits turned positive year - on - year. Government bond net financing is expected to be 1.2 trillion yuan lower year - on - year from November to December. After considering the hedging of 500 billion yuan in government bond quotas, it is still expected to drag down social financing by 0.2 percentage points. The new policy - based financial instruments were fully disbursed in October, and subsequent supporting financing is expected to improve, offsetting the decline in social financing to some extent [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation where "fixed income +" funds may sell bonds to replenish liquidity due to the adjustment in the equity market is not expected to last. As the expectation of interest rate cuts rises and the year - end allocation market arrives, especially if the equity market continues to fluctuate and adjust, bond yields may experience a new round of downward trends. The report maintains the judgment that the taxable yield of 10 - year treasury bonds will decline to 1.70% - 1.75% [1][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Down, Bonds Follow the Decline? - The stock - bond seesaw effect is well - known to bond market investors. Normally, when the equity market declines significantly, bond yields will decline smoothly. However, since November this year, the Shanghai Composite Index has significantly declined, but the price of 10 - year treasury bonds has oscillated overall and even declined. For example, on November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.5%, but the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased [6][11]. - When the equity market adjusts, "fixed income +" funds may face large net - value drawdowns. High - volatility "fixed income +" funds have a higher proportion of equity, and their performance mainly comes from equity assets. When the equity market declines, they are more likely to face redemption pressure and may sell some bond assets. Low - volatility "fixed income +" funds have a lower proportion of equity and are more resistant to decline, but they may also sell some bond assets to prevent redemption pressure [7][11]. 3.2 "Fixed Income +" Funds May Sell Bonds to Replenish Liquidity - Recently, the yields of "fixed income +" funds have been generally poor, and the yields of interest - rate bonds have oscillated slightly upward. The weak equity market has not directly led to a bond bull market. The overall average daily return of "fixed income +" funds has turned negative, with a single - day return of - 1.4% on November 21. The higher the equity position in "fixed income +" funds, the more obvious the decline in the daily return in the recent week, and the more obvious the drawdown [7][15]. - When "fixed income +" funds face redemption pressure, fund managers may prefer to sell liquid bonds rather than reduce equity positions. This "sell bonds to protect stocks" strategy meets the liquidity needs of redemptions and avoids passive reduction of equity at a low point in the equity market. As a result, the bond market has been dull under selling pressure, and the net - value growth of "fixed income +" funds has been pressured by the weakness of the equity part [7][15]. - Although the cash reserves of "fixed income +" funds (current deposit ratio of about 1.3% - 1.6%) are generally higher than those of non - "fixed income +" funds (about 0.7% - 0.8%), during significant market fluctuations, the peak of single - day net redemptions may exceed the cash reserve level. Therefore, when facing strong liquidity pressure, "fixed income +" funds may still have to sell liquid bonds [7][26].

Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of simultaneous declines in both the stock and bond markets is primarily attributed to the bond market absorbing some of the redemption pressure and deleveraging demands caused by the stock market's pullback, with speculative funds in TL contracts further amplifying this volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market's motivation to go long has not increased due to the stock market's pullback, as the current environment is characterized by low odds and ongoing concerns about potential new fund fee regulations [1]. - The stock market's decline may have triggered a chain reaction among multi-asset funds, leading the bond market to bear some selling pressure and deleveraging demands, evidenced by low divergence indices among brokers and funds [1]. - TL contracts have a high proportion of speculative funds, which tend to engage in short-term trading rather than long-term allocation, making them more susceptible to market sentiment and cyclical trading behaviors [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that the phenomenon of "simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds" with "greater declines in futures than in cash bonds" has occurred previously, specifically in late October 2023 and mid-March 2024, typically lasting no more than 10 days before a synchronized recovery in both markets [2].

利率 | 股跌了，债为什么不涨？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.23 核心观点 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 月 末 资 金 的 规 律 ？ 》 2025-11-22 2. 《高频｜杭州新房销售回暖，开工率大多 下行 》 2025-11-22 3. 《固收 + ，加什么？ — — 资产篇》 2025-11-19 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 ❖ 今年三季度股债跷跷板效应十分显著，但近期股市下跌时债市依旧较弱，为 什么？从宏观逻辑上，债市的增量利好有限、货币政策方向不明确是主要原 因；从机构行为角度，一方面是保险赎回固收+产品，另一方面是券商和农商 砸盘。展望未来，货币政策的基调是动态的，我们认为明年初降准降息的可 能性较高，而且从历史出发，无论是 12 月还是中央经济工作会议的日历效应 都很清晰，未来 1-3 周利率行情可能正式开启，建议把握做多机会。 ❖ 股市下跌主因：一是外围因素，隔夜美股大跌，再度引发全球市场对 AI 泡沫 的担忧 ...

Core Insights - The transition from "stocks rise, bonds fall" to "stocks fall, bonds do not rise" reflects the disparity in asset trends, indicating a lack of strong bullish drivers in the bond market while the equity market focuses on restoring investor confidence [1][3][11] - The bond market has seen a rebound from low levels, but the momentum for further increases is weak due to limited expectations for monetary policy easing and a generally low investor sentiment after a year of significant volatility [1][3][14] - The equity market, despite the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, lacks strong trading logic to support its rise, leading to pressure from high absolute index levels and recent volatility in overseas markets [1][3][14] Understanding U.S. Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between employment and inflation, with mixed signals from the labor market suggesting that a significant recession is not imminent, which may not justify a rate cut in December [2][15][16] - The absence of key labor data due to government shutdowns means the Fed may adopt a cautious stance, waiting for clearer signals before making decisions on rate cuts [2][18][22] - The fluctuation in rate cut expectations has impacted global asset pricing, with the potential for volatility in the rate cut timeline, although the overall direction towards easing remains unchanged [2][22] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market currently lacks a clear bullish trading narrative, making it susceptible to profit-taking after minor gains, with the potential for a breakout dependent on consistent bullish signals from policy or market trends [3][26] - Investor sentiment in the equity market is low due to ongoing declines, emphasizing the need to restore confidence to avoid a downward spiral in market perceptions [3][26]

银河证券研报称，看好2026年中国股票市场的投资机会：其一，逆周期政策力度维持，物价低位回升和 名义GDP中枢上移，企业盈利和居民信心同步修复，内部条件好转；其二，美国政策重心内移，中美迎 来一年宝贵的缓和期，且货币政策整体保持宽松态势，外部环境改善；其三，资本市场作为新旧动能转 换的重要枢纽，在"乘势而上"（支持科技和高质量发展）和"因势利导"（提振信心和财富效应）方面都 具有重要意义，中长期资金入市和股市上涨之间形成正循环，进而带动居民存款搬家。其四，银河证券 的"银河指南针"显示，在房价逐步触底、汇率稳步升值的情形下，投资中国股票市场有望获得超额回 报。虽然"宽信用"在2026年较难实现，但股债跷跷板效应或对无风险收益率造成持续扰动，预计10年期 国债收益率保持在1.6%~1.95%之间，走势整体前高后低。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant recovery in the public fund issuance market since 2025, with a total of 1,378 funds issued, surpassing last year's 1,143 and marking a three-year high [1][2] - The average subscription period for newly issued funds has decreased to 16.31 days from 22.63 days last year, indicating a faster fundraising process [1] - Equity funds have emerged as the dominant category, with 999 equity funds issued this year, accounting for 72.50% of the total [1][2] Group 2 - A notable "stock-bond seesaw effect" has been observed, with 762 stock funds issued this year, representing 55.30% of the total, while bond funds have decreased to 250, down from 330 last year [2] - The rise of index-based investments is significant, with 813 index funds issued, making up 59% of the total, and 96.59% of stock funds being index funds [2] - In the QDII fund sector, index funds dominate, with 15 out of 18 new QDII funds being index-based, a remarkable 83.33% [2] Group 3 - Multiple factors are driving the recovery in fund issuance, including a positive trend in the A-share market and improved corporate earnings due to economic recovery and policy implementation [3] - Central banks' accommodative monetary policies have maintained ample market liquidity, attracting international capital into the Chinese market [3] - Increased investor confidence, particularly among younger investors who are more open to new investment vehicles, is contributing to the growth of the public fund industry [3]