Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown significant performance in 2023, with major banks experiencing substantial stock price increases, driven by favorable market conditions and sector rotation trends. Group 1: Performance Metrics - The KBW bank index is up 32% year to date, outperforming the broader S&P index, which is up about 18% [1] - Notable stock performances include Croup up 71%, Goldman Sachs up 58%, and Morgan Stanley up approximately 45% this year [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - Business conditions were strong in 2025 and are expected to improve further in 2026, with capital markets gaining momentum and a better loan backdrop [3] - Deregulation has allowed banks to utilize capital more effectively, leading to improved returns [3] - Sector rotation and technical factors have contributed to the inflow of approximately $30 billion into financial ETFs last year, which is anticipated to continue into 2026 [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The positive business momentum is expected to accelerate into 2026, suggesting continued investment in major banks and regional banks [5] - Ancillary firms, such as Schwab and certain fintech companies, are also expected to benefit from these trends [5] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The macroeconomic environment is a critical factor; any deterioration could negatively impact the banking sector [7] - A continuation of capital markets recovery is essential, as M&A volumes were up 40% in 2025, primarily driven by large deals, and a broader engagement from financial sponsors is anticipated for 2026 [8][9] - The market is banking on the benefits of deregulation to materialize, with expectations for capital to be reallocated internally [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructed a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs, referring to two strategy reports published in 2024 [1]. - From December 22 - 26, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 4.34%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 2.29%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return was about 32.21%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 8.98% [2]. - In the week of December 29, 2025, the model recommended allocating to sectors such as securities, industrial metals, and precious metals. The strategy will newly hold products like Securities ETF Leader, Mining ETF, Gold Stocks ETF, and Communication ETF, and continue to hold products such as Power Grid Equipment ETF and Battery ETF [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETFs Information - The report lists information about multiple ETFs, including their fund codes, names, market values, holding situations, heavy - held Shenwan industries and weights, as well as weekly and daily timing signals. For example, Securities ETF Leader has a market value of 41.14 billion yuan, is being调入, and has 100% in the securities industry, with a weekly timing signal of - 1 and a daily timing signal of 1 [2]. Performance Tracking - In the period from December 22 - 26, 2025, the strategy's cumulative net return was about 4.34%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 2.29%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return was about 32.21%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 8.98% [2]. Portfolio Adjustment - In the week of December 29, 2025, some ETFs were newly added, some continued to be held, and some were removed. For instance, Securities ETF Leader, Mining ETF, Gold Stocks ETF, and Communication ETF were newly added; Power Grid Equipment ETF and Battery ETF continued to be held; while Real Estate ETF, etc., were removed [2][11].

- The report introduces multiple quantitative models for market timing, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term models, such as the "Volume Model," "Feature Institutional Model," "Feature Volume Model," "Intelligent Algorithm Model," "Limit-Up/Down Model," "Up/Down Return Difference Model," "Calendar Effect Model," and "Long-Term Momentum Model" [1][8][11] - The "Volume Model" is neutral for all broad-based indices in the short term, while the "Feature Institutional Model" is bullish, and the "Feature Volume Model" is bearish. The "Intelligent Algorithm Model" is neutral for both CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices [11][63] - The "Limit-Up/Down Model" and "Up/Down Return Difference Model" are bullish for all broad-based indices in the medium term, while the "Calendar Effect Model" remains neutral [12][64] - The "Long-Term Momentum Model" is bullish for the long term [13][65] - The "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" is bullish for A-shares, while the "Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model" is neutral [14][66] - For Hong Kong stocks, the "Turnover to Volatility Model" is bullish, while the "Up/Down Return Difference Model" is neutral in the medium term [15][67] - The report emphasizes that market timing requires a multi-cycle, multi-strategy model system, combining defensive and aggressive strategies to achieve a balanced approach [8] - Backtesting results for the models indicate that the "Double Bottom Pattern" portfolio outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.99% this week, with a cumulative return of 16.12% since December 31, 2020, compared to the index's 14.13% [38] - The "Cup and Handle Pattern" portfolio outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.32% this week but has underperformed the index by -1.36% cumulatively since December 31, 2020 [38]

Market Overview - On December 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.29%, the STAR 50 climbed by 0.9%, the CSI 1000 went up by 1.54%, the ChiNext Index gained 0.77%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17% [4] - The best-performing sectors on December 24 were defense and military industry (+2.88%), electronics (+2.12%), building materials (+1.72%), light industry manufacturing (+1.69%), and machinery equipment (+1.49%). The worst-performing sectors were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-0.85%), coal (-0.7%), food and beverage (-0.36%), banking (-0.3%), and media (+0.01%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on December 24 was 1,897.242 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.175 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank sector is expected to see a rebound in 2026, offering both high probability and favorable odds [5] - Market expectations for the non-bank sector are low due to the high base in 2025 [5] - Factors driving this outlook include a long-term "slow bull" market in equities and optimization of the liability side [5] Industry Rotation Strategy - The top five industry indices from the 2025 Annual Industry Scoring Table yielded a cumulative return of 44.8% as of December 23, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 22.2%, with positive excess returns in 11 out of 12 months [6][7] - In a bull market, focusing on industry fundamentals is deemed more important than trading comparisons, with a strategy of identifying and holding onto sectors with strong economic logic being favored over rotation trading [6][7] - Key sectors to watch in 2026 include cyclical and technology sectors, closely aligned with top-level policy themes such as technological self-reliance, domestic demand, and anti-involution [6][7] Automotive Parts Industry - The automotive lightweight trend presents significant opportunities for substituting steel with plastics, as modified plastics are lighter and stronger, making them ideal materials for automotive lightweighting [8] - The increase in the usage of modified plastics serves as a catalyst for this trend [8] - Risks include rising raw material costs and the potential for new material substitution [8]

Market Overview - A-shares remain stable with controllable risks, suggesting opportunities for low-cost investments in high-prosperity sectors. The macro strategy team indicates that market enthusiasm for chasing high prices is still weak, but the index remains relatively stable, expected to maintain a fluctuating structure with controllable risks. Signs of market stabilization have become more apparent since December, particularly in high-prosperity sectors that have shown resilience. It is recommended to preferentially invest in industries with upward trends in prosperity and patiently await the upcoming spring market [1][4][6]. Stock Market Factors - Last week, market style shifted slightly towards large-cap stocks, with a value-oriented approach gaining traction compared to the previous week. The volatility of both large-cap and value-growth styles remained low. The dispersion of excess returns among industries and the speed of industry rotation have reversed, showing an increase, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks has decreased. The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks remained stable, with a slight decline in the trading concentration of the top five industries [6][8]. Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, all sectors except for the black metal sector showed an upward trend in strength. The efficiency coefficients for precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products remained high. The basis momentum for precious metals saw a significant decline, while the basis momentum for energy and black metal sectors increased. Volatility increased in all sectors except for precious metals and agricultural products, and liquidity decreased in the energy and agricultural sectors, while other sectors saw a slight increase [20][21]. Options Market Factors - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 rebounded from low levels last week. In terms of volatility skew, both call and put options for the Shanghai index decreased, while the put option skew for the CSI 1000 continued to rise, indicating that the market has experienced some risk release, with small-cap styles still accumulating risks [29]. Convertible Bond Market Factors - The convertible bond market stabilized and showed signs of recovery last week. The valuation of bonds reached a new high for the year in terms of the premium rate for conversion at 100 yuan, maintaining a trend of oscillation and increase. The pure bond premium rate for debt-type groupings saw a slight increase, while the proportion of low premium conversion bonds continued to decline, remaining at a low level. Market transaction volume rebounded, surpassing the historical median for the past year [31].

Core Insights - The 2025 industry scoring report identified the top five sectors as Electric New Energy, Military Industry, Nonferrous Metals, Machinery, and Chemicals, which showed a strong correlation with actual annual performance [1][3][18] - A simulated equal-weighted portfolio of the top five sectors yielded a cumulative return of 44.8% by December 23, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 22.2%, with a monthly success rate exceeding 90% [1][3][12] - The report emphasizes that in a bullish market, focusing on industry fundamentals is more effective than trading strategies, advocating for a buy-and-hold approach based on economic cycles [1][5][21] 2025 Industry Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 16% in 2025, marking the largest increase since 2020, with Nonferrous Metals and Communication sectors leading the gains at 89.9% and 89% respectively [2][13] - The report highlights that the performance of Nonferrous Metals and Communication significantly outpaced the CSI 300's 17.4% increase [12][13] 2025 Annual Industry Scoring Conclusions and Performance Review - The annual scoring report, published in November 2024, ranked Electric New Energy, Military Industry, Nonferrous Metals, Machinery, and Chemicals as the top five sectors, correlating well with actual performance [3][18] - The top five sectors' simulated portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 44.8%, with 11 out of 12 months showing positive excess returns [3][20] 2025 Monthly Industry Scoring Conclusions and Performance Review - The monthly scoring report indicated a sample return of 34.7% since 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 14.8%, although this was lower than the annual scoring report's performance [4][12] - Key insights from the monthly performance include successful allocations in Communication and Nonferrous Metals, while frequent trading led to missed opportunities [4][5] Summary and Reflections - The analysis suggests that in a bullish market, prioritizing industry fundamentals over trading strategies is crucial, with a focus on tracking industry prosperity differences [5][21] - For 2026, sectors that should receive higher fundamental scores include those aligned with cyclical and technological trends, particularly in areas like Electronics, Communication, Military, Consumer Services, Agriculture, Trade, Pharmaceuticals, Electric New Energy, Chemicals, and Automotive [5][21]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in the pharmaceutical industry, especially after 2020, significant breakthroughs often stem from small adjustments and persistent efforts rather than dramatic revelations, highlighting the importance of understanding "micro and critical nodes" in investment strategies [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Performance and Fund Management - The article reviews the performance of active equity funds focused on the pharmaceutical sector, particularly those managed by fund managers with a tenure starting before 2017 and maintaining over 80% allocation to the pharmaceutical industry [4]. - Among the funds analyzed, only two have shown positive returns over the past three and five years, with the best performance attributed to the fund managed by Yang Zhenshao, which has consistently outperformed the pharmaceutical index since 2017 [5][6]. - Yang Zhenshao's fund, the E Fund Healthcare Industry Mixed Fund, has achieved a return of 198.63% since its inception in August 2016, with an annualized return of 12.43% and a year-to-date return of 28.92% as of December 21, 2025 [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Insights - Yang Zhenshao's investment strategy involves in-depth research across various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on commercial models, market conditions, catalysts, and valuations to identify underrepresented sectors [10]. - The strategy has evolved from a purely bottom-up stock selection approach to a balanced focus on both alpha and beta, particularly after 2023, allowing for more comprehensive market engagement [11][12]. - The fund manager has demonstrated a keen ability to identify and capitalize on high-potential stocks, such as Nanwei Medical and Te Bao Biological, which saw significant price increases shortly after being added to the portfolio [13][14]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The article notes that the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a transformation, with companies increasingly moving towards global competitiveness and innovation, as evidenced by the rising number of new drug approvals and international collaborations [39][40]. - Yang Zhenshao has highlighted the importance of focusing on innovative drugs and high-value medical consumables, indicating a strategic shift towards sectors that are expected to thrive in the evolving market landscape [35][36]. - The outlook for the innovative drug sector is optimistic, with expectations for continued growth and increased global market presence for Chinese pharmaceutical companies [41].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, leveraging insights from previous strategy reports on industry style continuation and switching perspectives [1] - The strategy update indicates a cumulative net return of approximately 0.53% for the period from December 15 to December 19, 2025, with an excess return of about 0.66% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [2][11] - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 26.72%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 5.86% [2] ETF Holdings and Performance - The report lists various ETFs with their market values and performance, highlighting the following: - Real Estate ETF (3.51 billion) is newly added with a 100% allocation to real estate development, showing a weekly timing signal of -1 [2] - Battery ETF (145.30 billion) continues to be held with a 62.7% allocation, showing a weekly timing signal of 0 [2] - Innovative Energy ETF (12.02 billion) continues to be held with a 46.04% allocation, showing a weekly timing signal of 0 [2] - Consumer Electronics ETF (11.41 billion) is newly added with a 46.5% allocation to semiconductors, showing a weekly timing signal of 0 [2] - Grid Equipment ETF (31.17 billion) continues to be held with an 80.77% allocation, showing a weekly timing signal of 1 [2] - 5G Communication ETF (79.24 billion) is newly added with a 41.2% allocation, showing a weekly timing signal of 1 [2] Weekly Recommendations - For the week of December 22 to December 26, 2025, the report recommends increasing holdings in sectors such as real estate development, batteries, and photovoltaic equipment, while continuing to hold existing positions in battery, innovative energy, and grid equipment ETFs [11]

Group 1 - The report indicates that in the week from December 15 to December 19, 2025, overseas markets experienced more declines than gains, with slight valuation changes. The Asia-Pacific region saw a broad decline, led by South Korea, while the Eurozone and the UK saw increases. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Korean Composite Index fell by 2.61% and 3.52%, respectively, but their P/E ratios expanded by 0.92x and 2.57x, indicating downward revisions in earnings expectations [3][8]. - In the same week, A-shares showed narrow fluctuations with slight valuation expansion. The large-cap value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap value rising by 1.52% while large-cap growth fell by 1.39%. The report highlights that the valuation distribution is asymmetric, with significant P/E contractions in small-cap growth and the National Index 2000 [3][23]. - The report notes that the downstream consumer sector has a favorable valuation attractiveness. The communication sector has the highest valuation percentiles, with rolling 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year averages of 96.80%, 98.93%, and 99.36%, respectively. Other consumer sectors like social services and beauty care also show relatively high valuation attractiveness [3][26]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the new energy sector experienced a broad decline, with photovoltaic stocks leading the drop at -3.91%. However, sectors such as insurance and military industry performed well, indicating a divergence in sector performance. The report also notes that some industries, like artificial intelligence and new energy, saw significant P/E expansions despite falling stock prices, reflecting downward revisions in profit expectations [3][23]. - The report provides a detailed valuation comparison of various indices, indicating that the core broad-based indices (CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, and Wind All A) are all above the 75th percentile level since 2010. In contrast, other indices are positioned between the median and the 75th percentile [3][28]. - The report concludes that large-cap growth stocks have superior valuation attractiveness, with their P/E, P/B, and P/S ratios showing higher percentile rankings compared to small-cap value stocks, which have lower valuation attractiveness across multiple time frames [3][26].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Momentum Acceleration - **Construction Idea**: The momentum acceleration factor is designed to measure the marginal change in price trends, reflecting short-term trading sentiment by excluding the impact of trading congestion[52] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by calculating the second derivative of the excess return curve to determine the rate of change in price trends - The formula used is not explicitly provided in the document, but it involves calculating the second derivative of the price trend to assess the acceleration or deceleration of price movements[52][53] - **Evaluation**: The momentum acceleration factor has shown to have a leading effect in industry selection, especially in long-term trends[53] Model Name: Composite Factor - **Construction Idea**: The composite factor integrates multiple dimensions to score industries, aiming to achieve sustained excess returns over the entire industry[63] - **Construction Process**: - The composite factor is constructed by combining various individual factors, including fundamental, technical, and sentiment indicators - The specific formula or method for combining these factors is not detailed in the document[63] - **Evaluation**: The composite factor has shown improved Rank_IC and sustained excess returns compared to the equal-weighted industry portfolio[63] Model Backtesting Results - **Momentum Acceleration**: - Rank_IC: 3.80% - IC_IR: 12.58% - IC>0 Ratio: 55.65% - Quintile 1 Annualized Return: -3.11% - Quintile 5 Annualized Return: 2.44%[56] - **Composite Factor**: - Rank_IC: 9.89% - IC_IR: 40.07% - IC>0 Ratio: 67.26% - Quintile 1 Annualized Return: -4.97% - Quintile 5 Annualized Return: 7.21%[61] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Analyst Consensus Change Rate - **Construction Idea**: The change rate of analyst consensus is used to reflect analysts' views more accurately[7] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed using the change in consensus net profit forecasts over the past three months (FY1 and FY2) - The specific formula is not provided, but it involves calculating the percentage change in consensus forecasts[8] - **Evaluation**: The change rate of consensus net profit forecasts (FY2) has shown better predictive ability for excess returns compared to FY1[11] Factor Name: Cash Flow to Net Profit Ratio - **Construction Idea**: The cash flow to net profit ratio is used to reflect the quality of industry operations[22] - **Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by calculating the ratio of operating cash flow to net profit - The specific formula is not provided, but it involves dividing operating cash flow by net profit[22] - **Evaluation**: The cash flow to net profit ratio has shown better performance in screening for high-quality industries, especially in identifying short positions[28] Factor Backtesting Results - **Analyst Consensus Change Rate (FY2)**: - Rank_IC: 6.17% - IC_IR: 25.22% - IC>0 Ratio: 63.03% - Quintile 1 Annualized Return: -4.44% - Quintile 5 Annualized Return: 2.77%[6] - **Cash Flow to Net Profit Ratio**: - Rank_IC: 4.90% - IC_IR: 25.01% - IC>0 Ratio: 58.78% - Quintile 1 Annualized Return: -2.17% - Quintile 5 Annualized Return: 3.88%[20]