Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggests the possibility of interest rate cuts in July, despite strong employment data in June, indicating that current policy rates are "too high" [1][3] - Waller notes that inflation has "clearly cooled" and the labor market is becoming "stable," supporting a gradual shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3] - His remarks are particularly significant as he is one of the few members advocating for rate cuts in the near term, positioning him as a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chair [3][4] Group 2 - Waller emphasizes that his support for a July rate cut is based purely on economic logic, not political influences, asserting that the central bank's decisions should be guided by inflation and employment targets [3] - The market response to Waller's statements adds uncertainty to the upcoming July FOMC meeting, with investors divided on the timing of a potential rate cut cycle starting in the second half of 2025 [3][4] - Waller's comments serve as an independent interpretation of economic data and may signal an early shift in monetary policy direction, warranting attention to the positions of other key Federal Reserve officials [4]

Group 1 - Bitcoin has surged past $116,500 with a 48% increase in 24-hour trading volume, indicating strong market momentum [2] - Whale addresses have accumulated over 23,000 BTC in the past week, with institutional holdings reaching a yearly high [2] - The derivatives market has seen open interest surpassing $38 billion, with market sentiment entering the "extreme greed" zone [2] Group 2 - The approval of the first batch of virtual asset spot ETFs by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission marks a significant regulatory development [3] - Ethereum Layer 2 total locked value has exceeded $45 billion, reflecting growing interest in scaling solutions [3] - AI and blockchain project financing in Q2 has increased by 215% quarter-over-quarter, indicating a surge in innovation [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests a three-phase bull market progression: Bitcoin's initial surge, followed by mainstream coins, and finally an explosion of quality altcoins [3] - Current market selection criteria for alpha projects include a market cap between $1-5 billion, daily trading volume above $30 million, real revenue scenarios, and institutional holdings exceeding 15% [3] Group 4 - DHP is highlighted as a standout project in the Real World Asset (RWA) sector, with a unique value proposition and strong community engagement [3] - The project has achieved a 67% repurchase rate for physical products and has integrated with 12 DEXs and 8 DeFi protocols [3] - The first round of node subscription is set from July 12 to July 22, with a projected annual return of 20% and a static payback period of approximately 8 months [3] Group 5 - The market outlook suggests that with the onset of Federal Reserve easing, the crypto market is entering an optimal configuration period not seen in three years [4] - DHP's dual-driven model of "physical + digital" is expected to facilitate significant growth in the upcoming bull market [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the first round of node subscriptions starting July 12 for early participation benefits [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weak US dollar boosts market risk appetite, and base metal prices oscillate upwards. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand expectations are intertwined, with non - ferrous metals oscillating higher. Pay attention to structural opportunities and short - term long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and consider shorting opportunities for some oversupplied or expected - to - be - oversupplied varieties on price rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index declines, and copper prices operate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The 2025 mid - year TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. May electrolytic copper output increased. Spot copper premiums rose, and copper inventories decreased [3]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, expectations of Fed rate cuts drive the US dollar index down, boosting copper prices. Supply - side raw material shortages lead to smelter production cuts. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventories support prices. There is also a risk of a short squeeze on the LME [4]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventories support copper prices. In the short term, copper may show high - level oscillations [4]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipt numbers remain low, and the alumina futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or slightly changed. An overseas transaction price increased. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE were flat [5][6]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to - medium term, there is no shortage of ore, with rising production capacity and inventories, and a downward - moving spot price center. However, significant warehouse receipt reduction causes concerns. Long - term events have limited impact for now [5]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it oscillates weakly. Observe near - month warehouse receipt numbers. Consider shorting cautiously after the far - month contract rises further. Participate in reverse arbitrage if warehouse receipts increase or there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the near - month contract [5]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed, and electrolytic aluminum prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories increased [7][12]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts ease, the US dollar weakens, and risk appetite recovers. Domestic inventories are accumulating, but the sustainability is uncertain. In the long term, aluminum demand depends on actual consumption [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, market sentiment improves, and prices may oscillate strongly. In the long term, consumption is a concern, and consider shorting on price rallies [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Spot trading is light, and the aluminum alloy futures market oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: The price of ADC12 decreased, and there are uncertainties in trade policies [9]. - **Main Logic**: Short - term costs are driven up by aluminum prices, but demand is seasonally weak. In the future, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may rise [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 oscillate weakly, and the futures market follows electrolytic aluminum. In the medium term, there is room for price recovery [10]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are slightly oversupplied, and pay attention to shorting opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Information Analysis**: Spot premiums vary in different regions, inventories increased, and a mine's production forecast is adjusted [10][13]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the situation is neutral. Supply is loosening, and smelters are profitable. Demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. In the long term, supply will increase while demand growth is limited [14]. - **Outlook**: In July, zinc production will increase, demand will weaken, and inventories will accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Scrap battery prices are stable, lead ingot prices decreased slightly, and inventories increased slightly [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, premiums are stable. Supply - side production may decrease slightly, and demand - side battery factory operating rates are recovering [15]. - **Outlook**: After tariff cuts, demand recovers, and supply may decrease. Cost support is strong, and lead prices will oscillate [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesian nickel enterprises' construction accelerates, and nickel prices oscillate widely in the short term. - **Information Analysis**: LME and SHFE nickel inventories changed, and there are multiple industry - related events such as project construction and policy changes [16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Raw material supply may loosen, and there is an oversupply of electrolytic nickel with high inventories [20]. - **Outlook**: Market sentiment improves. Long - term positions can be closed. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [20]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market oscillates weakly. - **Information Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased, spot premiums exist, and there are industry - related events in Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policies [21][23]. - **Main Logic**: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices are weakening, and steel mills are under pressure. Production may decrease, and demand may weaken. Inventory accumulation is limited [26]. - **Outlook**: Cost support weakens, but price drops may lead to production cuts. Pay attention to inventory and cost changes. In the short term, it may maintain range - bound oscillations [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: Warehouse receipts on the LME were flat, and those on the SHFE increased. Spot prices decreased [26][27]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic tin ore shortages are intensifying, and Indonesian export license replacement causes supply problems. Supply is expected to decrease, but demand may weaken in the second half of the year [27]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are supported by tight ore supply. The extent of the transmission of ore shortages to ingot supply will determine the price level in July. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [27].

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 21% to 20%, indicating a slight easing of inflation and signs of economic stabilization [1] - Experts believe that the rate cut will reduce domestic loan costs and support economic growth, with a decision on further rate cuts expected in December based on more economic data [1][5] - The Central Bank's discussions revealed differing opinions on whether to raise rates to 21% or tighten further to 22%, reflecting serious inflation risks and varying judgments on their impact [3] Group 2 - Despite tightening monetary policy, bond yields and money market rates have risen significantly, but the actual increase in rates has been less than expected due to rising inflation expectations [4] - The Central Bank's current monetary policy is considered insufficient to effectively curb price increases, with a high likelihood of another rate hike in the upcoming meeting [4][5] - December is seen as a critical juncture for monetary policy, with increased consumer activity and government spending, and more data available for assessing loan dynamics and inflation expectations [5] Group 3 - Analysts predict that inflation in Russia may continue to ease, laying the groundwork for a gradual shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [6][7] - The Moscow Exchange index rose to near a three-week high following the Central Bank's decision, indicating market optimism regarding potential changes in monetary policy [7] - The outlook for bank stocks and highly leveraged companies is positive, as rate cuts could lower interest expenses and debt burdens, enhancing growth and investment appeal [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces dual policy risks of potential interest rate hikes or significant cuts in the next 12 months, with current market pricing reflecting only the baseline scenario [1][3] - The probability of an interest rate hike is assessed at around 15%, linked to Republican fiscal expansion and tariff transmission, with tariffs potentially driving inflation [1] - Current average tariffs on U.S. imports have reached the highest level since 1938 at 15%, indicating that price increases driven by tariffs have not fully materialized yet [1] Group 2 - The risk of interest rate cuts arises from a potential unexpected weakening in the labor market, which could lead to cuts exceeding the current Wall Street expectation of 100 basis points by the end of 2026 [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated that achieving a neutral interest rate would require "multiple rate cuts," but tariff policies may push inflation higher, creating a policy tension with calls for significant rate cuts [3] - The current federal funds rate has been maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for over six months, with market pricing indicating a delay in the first rate cut to September and a reduction in the total cut magnitude to 50 basis points for the year [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates and indicated a slower pace for future rate cuts, with Powell stating that high inflation persists [2] - The spot gold market reacted to the news, experiencing a slight decline, reaching a low of $3362.58 per ounce and closing at $3369.15 per ounce [2] - Future market trends should be monitored closely, particularly regarding trade tariffs, geopolitical developments, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction along with U.S. Treasury yields [2] Group 2 - In the spot gold market, the hourly chart shows a consolidation phase, with a short-term 15-minute chart also indicating a range-bound movement between $3362.00 and $3380.00, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [3] - If the market breaks below $3362.00, a short position may be considered, targeting $3352.00 to $3342.00 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if the market breaks above $3380.00, a long position may be initiated, with targets set at $3390.00 to $3400.00, and a stop loss of $5.00 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The spot silver market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with the hourly chart indicating a range between $36.500 and $36.980, suggesting a buy low and sell high strategy [6] - A break below the support level of $36.500 per ounce may prompt the establishment of a short position, targeting $36.150 to $35.800 per ounce [6] - If the market successfully breaks above $36.980 per ounce, a long position may be pursued, with potential targets of $37.400 to $37.900 per ounce, and a stop loss of $0.200 per ounce [6]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan announced to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.5% and revealed a significant policy shift to halve bond purchases to 200 billion yen per quarter starting from the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The decision to maintain the current bond purchase reduction path until March 2026 lays the groundwork for future monetary policy changes [1] - There is a notable internal disagreement within the Bank of Japan regarding the pace of bond purchase reductions, with committee member Naoki Tamura advocating for a continued reduction of 400 billion yen per quarter [3] Group 2 - Global risks are intensifying, with escalating Middle East conflicts increasing risk aversion and a strong dollar suppressing the yen's exchange rate [3] - The ongoing stalemate in US-Japan tariff negotiations poses additional challenges, with potential auto tariffs from the Trump administration looming [3] - The market reacted sharply to the policy announcement, with the USD/JPY exchange rate experiencing significant volatility, highlighting traders' sensitivity to the policy shift [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan's strategic divergence from the Federal Reserve is becoming apparent, with a policy review window set for June 2026 to assess the bond purchase plan [4] - Geopolitical risks and trade protectionism are creating a challenging environment for monetary policy, making the statements from the Bank of Japan's governor critical for international financial markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is at a critical juncture regarding its monetary policy, with expectations to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% during the upcoming meeting, but signs indicate a potential shift towards rate cuts in the near future [1][4]. Economic Data Divergence: Inflation vs. Growth - The UK faces a mixed economic environment, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining high at 3.5% and service sector inflation spiking to 5.4% in April, significantly above the Bank's 2% target [2]. - The labor market is deteriorating, with employment numbers declining for 9 out of the last 10 months and the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years [2]. - Private sector wage growth has dropped from 6% to 5%, which is 0.5 percentage points lower than the Bank's May forecast, indicating economic strain [2]. Policy Divergence and Market Expectations - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) showed internal divisions, with a 5-4 vote to lower the rate from 4.5% to 4.25%, reflecting differing views on wage growth and labor market adjustments [3]. - Market pricing suggests traders expect two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with a year-end rate forecast of 3.75% [3]. - The Bank's Governor, Andrew Bailey, indicated that if inflation targets are threatened, more aggressive actions may be taken, although current data suggests a balance between falling inflation and economic weakness [3]. Future Outlook: Rate Cuts on the Horizon - The Bank of England is likely to remain on hold in June, but the probability of a rate cut in August exceeds 80%, driven by weak labor market conditions and slowing wage growth [4]. - If service sector inflation peaks and declines in Q2, a second rate cut in November may become inevitable [4]. - Despite CPI expected to remain above 3% for the year, falling energy prices and easing global trade tensions could accelerate inflation decline [4]. - The Bank faces dual challenges of unmet inflation targets and weakening economic momentum, with current rates still in a contractionary zone, allowing room for adjustments [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Futures Weekly Report (2025.06.09 - 06.13) [2] - Report Scope: Gold and silver futures - Data Sources: Wind, MySteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [17][28][48] 1. Gold Futures 1.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Gold is in a "safe - haven + interest rate cut expectation" dual - drive stage. In the short term, beware of market fluctuations due to data and policy changes. In the long - term, factors such as geopolitical risks, de - dollarization, and interest rate cut expectations support the gold price. Monitor the impact of US economic data on monetary policy and the progress of tariff policies [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Expected the gold main contract 2508 to fluctuate in the short term, recommended waiting and seeing. The lower support was 738 - 746, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Expected the gold main contract 2508 to fluctuate in the short term, recommended waiting and seeing. The lower support is 738 - 746, and the upper pressure is 800 - 808 [12] - AI Diagnosis: The daily trend is in a sideways phase, possibly in the middle of the trend according to historical cycle rules. The main funds show a significant bearish attitude, and the capital energy remains basically stable. The risk of a trend reversal is relatively high [13] 1.3 Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] 2. Silver Futures 2.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: The recent upward breakthrough of silver is the result of the resonance of four factors: rotation of safe - haven assets, rigid growth of industrial demand, expectation of monetary policy shift, and technical breakthrough. The core driving forces are the structural demand from photovoltaic and new energy vehicles and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Tariff policy concerns and the weakening of the US dollar provide short - term boosts. In the long - term, silver prices are affected by multiple factors such as industrial demand, monetary policy, geopolitics, gold - silver ratio repair, and market sentiment. When allocating silver, pay attention to the development of the global new energy industry, Fed policy trends, geopolitical risks, and changes in the silver supply - demand pattern [32] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [35] 2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Expected the silver contract 2508 to be relatively strong, with the lower support range at 8600 - 8800 [37] - This Week's Strategy Recommendation: Expected the silver contract 2508 to oscillate in a large range, recommended grid trading in the range of 7000 - 8800 [37] - AI Diagnosis: The overall trend is in an upward channel, possibly in the middle of the trend according to historical cycle rules. The main funds show a strong bullish sentiment, with a rapid influx of capital. The risk of a trend reversal is relatively high [38] 2.3 Relevant Data - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen below the psychological level of 144.00, reaching a two-week low, driven by expectations of a shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy despite weak trade data [1][3] - Japan's core CPI has risen for 27 consecutive months, with service price increases at their highest since 1993, raising concerns about persistent inflation and prompting speculation about a potential interest rate hike in 2025 [3] - The USD is under pressure due to two main factors: the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and Fitch's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating to AA+, leading to a reassessment of the attractiveness of USD assets [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has broken key support levels, with the next target being the 143.65-143.60 area, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at 144.55 and 145.00, with any technical rebounds likely viewed as short-selling opportunities unless the price can reclaim 145.40 [4] - The market sentiment has shifted from merely trading interest rate differentials to speculating on policy expectation differences, indicating potential volatility due to discrepancies between actual policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan and market expectations [5]