7月23日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价继续上涨，整体涨幅超8元/克。其中，周生生的黄金价 格上涨8元/克，报价1029元/克，为最高价金店。上海中国黄金上涨12元/克，报价981元/克，还是最低 价金店。今日最高与最低金店间价差扩大至52元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年7月23日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1024 | 元/克 | 10 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1023 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1023 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1003 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1023 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1024 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1023 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1029 | 元/克 | 8 | 涨 | | 菜百 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have risen back to $3,400, a level not seen since June 16, indicating a recovery for bullish investors [1] - The upcoming tariffs from Trump's administration are expected to create volatility, with speculation in the options market suggesting that gold will benefit from retaliatory tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, particularly the anticipated rate cuts, are influencing market dynamics, with a strong bullish sentiment emerging in the gold market [2] Group 2 - The recent price movements show a clear upward trend, with support levels rising from $3,310, indicating a bullish market sentiment [4] - Trading strategies are focused on buying on dips, with key price levels identified for potential entry points and profit-taking [4] - The market is closely watching for a breakout above $3,438, which could signal further upward momentum [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a short-term upward trend despite some fluctuations, with a positive outlook for the upcoming months as various industry catalysts emerge [1][2]. Market Overview - The A-share market showed initial volatility but began to rise after 10:30 AM, with most major indices closing in the green, indicating a strong buying force [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has officially broken through the high point of November 8, 2024, suggesting the end of the sideways movement since Q4 2024 [1]. - Concerns regarding trade conflicts have eased, and with the policy window approaching in July, the market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend [1]. Future Outlook - There are multiple industry catalysts that could positively influence the market, such as the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream power station and potential recovery in H20 chip exports [2]. - After the index surpasses 3500 points, two potential paths are identified: continuing the upward trend or consolidating before challenging the previous high of 3674 points [2]. - For the market to challenge the previous high, three conditions must be met: implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, continued global easing, and sustained increase in trading volume [2]. Sector Highlights - The A-share market in July is expected to be driven by events, with a likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing areas [3]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Consumer expansion and domestic demand, with a focus on dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [3]. 2. The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life, with opportunities in sensors, controllers, and functional robots [3]. 3. The ongoing trend of semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3]. 4. The military industry is expected to see a rebound in orders, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [3]. 5. The innovative drug sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in fundamentals after a prolonged adjustment period [3]. Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced fluctuations but maintained an upward trend, with strong buying support observed [4]. - Leading sectors included coal, building materials, construction, steel, and non-ferrous metals, while banking, computing, telecommunications, electronics, and textiles lagged [4].

Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - economic factors, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [2]. - Different commodities have different price trends and investment opportunities, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index**: There is an obvious high - low switching phenomenon between sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital side and incremental policies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the tax period this week, funds may gradually return to a loose state. In the short - term, the bond market is significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and is in a box - shock stage. Curve strategies can continue to bet on steepening [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fluctuates more due to short - term trade conflicts and a weaker dollar, maintaining a shock - upward trend above $3300. Silver has further upward space above $38 and long positions can be held [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates. It is expected that the near - month will be weakly volatile. It is advisable to short the 08 contract or lightly short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, pig iron production has rebounded, and steel mills' restocking provides support. It is recommended to go long on dips for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the advancement of anti - involution policies, copper prices fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 78,500 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Alumina is strong due to capacity elimination expectations and squeezing risks. Aluminum prices have a slight recovery, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Zinc has weak demand expectations with inventory accumulation. Tin, nickel, and stainless steel have different trends affected by macro and industrial factors [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro and fundamental aspects are in a multi - empty stalemate, and short - term oil prices fluctuate mainly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset in the short - term [2]. - **Chemicals**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX is supported in the short - term, PTA is also supported, and some products like caustic soda and PVC are affected by macro and policy factors [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, soybeans have strong bottom support, palm oil is weak due to slow exports, and cotton has a short - term strong trend and a medium - term bearish trend [2]. Special Commodities - Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by macro factors. Their prices have risen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by macro - sentiment. Their prices have upward trends, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to risk management [2].

Core Viewpoint - China is prepared for a prolonged trade conflict with the U.S. and has implemented new export control measures to strengthen its strategic position in the ongoing trade war [1][3][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Export Control Measures - The Ministry of Commerce of China has released a new version of the export control technology catalog, which includes a list of technologies that are prohibited from export and those that require licensing for export [1] - Key changes in the catalog focus on building environment control technology, battery technology, and non-ferrous metal metallurgy technology [1] Strategic Preparedness - China recognizes that the trade conflict with the U.S. is unavoidable and is taking steps to prepare for potential escalations, including the possibility of a second round of tariff wars initiated by the U.S. [6] - The recent changes in trade rules and diplomatic efforts are aimed at transforming China's position from passive to proactive in the face of external pressures [6][8] Diplomatic Efforts - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been actively engaging with various countries, including visits to Europe and Malaysia, to strengthen alliances and prepare for upcoming international meetings [6] - There is an acknowledgment that the European Union is not entirely unified and that China can adopt a strategy of "picking off" individual EU countries for cooperation [8] Importance of Strategic Assets - The export control measures are viewed as a "trump card" that can help China maintain a strong position in the face of Western pressures [8][9] - The ability to control core technologies and resources is seen as essential for China to remain competitive and resilient against U.S. attempts to impose tariffs and other trade barriers [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - The German Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, emphasized the necessity to resolve the trade conflict promptly, but not at any cost [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a strong stance on the importance of ending the trade conflict while maintaining certain principles [1]

Gold Market - Gold prices continued to decline slightly, indicating potential signs of deterioration in both short-term and mid-term trends, possibly marking the beginning of a mid-term adjustment [1] - The latest inflation data has reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a stronger dollar and weaker gold prices [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations, with the month-on-month increase being the largest since February [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 2.8% [1] - The probability of a rate cut in July has dropped to below 5%, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once this year [1] - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and President Trump is expected to worsen, increasing market uncertainty, which may still favor gold in the long term [1] - Technically, gold is showing a downward trend with a focus on the resistance level around $3346 [1] Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline slightly, with a high probability of a downward C-wave pattern [2] - The fundamental pressure on oil prices has lessened, but the oversupply situation remains the biggest obstacle to price increases, with a potential drop to the $55 level [2] - OPEC's latest monthly report aims to instill confidence in the market, predicting better-than-expected global economic growth in the second half of the year and high refinery crude processing rates due to increased summer travel [2] - OPEC maintains its forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day, respectively, with a significant increase of 2.1 million barrels per day in global refinery crude processing in June compared to May [2] - However, economic uncertainties may suppress oil consumption demand, and OPEC's continued production increase to regain market share contradicts efforts to maintain oil prices [2] - Technically, oil prices are showing a high probability of a downward trend, with a focus on the resistance level around $67 [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines and small increases, likely indicating an adjustment to previous gains [3] - The short-term outlook suggests a potential further decline, but the overall bullish logic remains intact [3] - Attention should be paid to the support level around $5.35 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a series of small declines and small increases, indicating a potential completion of its current structure [5] - A downward continuation pattern has formed in the 4-hour cycle, with a focus on the resistance level around 39,940 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical environment and trade conflicts with the United States have created "extremely uncertain" impacts on prices according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel [1] Group 1 - The current geopolitical tensions are contributing to uncertainty in economic conditions [1] - Trade conflicts with the United States are a significant factor affecting price stability [1]

Group 1 - The Brazilian government, represented by Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro, criticized the U.S. decision to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods as an "unfair measure" and plans to seek alternative markets in the Middle East and South Asia [1] - Brazilian President Lula indicated that the government could take various actions in response to the U.S. tariffs, including filing a complaint with the WTO and implementing reciprocal measures based on the recently passed economic equivalence law [1] - The Brazilian government has expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. tariffs and has summoned the U.S. chargé d'affaires for clarification regarding comments made about former President Bolsonaro [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian newspaper "O Estado de S. Paulo" suggested that imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian products would not alleviate the legal troubles faced by former President Bolsonaro and would be counterproductive to U.S. economic goals [3] - China's Foreign Ministry emphasized that tariffs should not be used as tools for coercion or interference in other countries' internal affairs, highlighting the principle of sovereign equality [3] Group 3 - President Trump announced plans to impose a uniform tariff of 15% or 20% on nearly all remaining trade partners, indicating a broader strategy of increasing tariffs [5] - The U.S. has already sent tariff warning letters to countries like South Korea and Japan, which have been described as lacking negotiation sincerity and reducing dialogue opportunities [5] Group 4 - The German automotive industry is facing significant losses due to U.S. tariffs, with calls for a swift resolution to the trade conflict [7] - Economic experts warn that the imposition of high tariffs on EU goods could lead to substantial trade disruptions and an escalation of economic conflict between the U.S. and EU [7] - Recent data indicates that U.S. companies are beginning to feel the impact of tariffs, with prices for imported steel and aluminum rising nearly 30% from January to May, affecting various sectors reliant on these materials [7]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU by the U.S. is expected to lead to significant economic repercussions, including potential retaliation from the EU and a deeper economic slowdown in the Eurozone [1][2][3]. Economic Impact - A 30% tariff, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from the EU, could shrink Eurozone economic output by 0.7% [1][3]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) may lower its policy interest rate to 1% by the first quarter of 2026, down from the current 2% [1][3]. - Germany, as a key exporter, could face losses exceeding €200 billion due to tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% by 2028 [3]. Market Reactions - The threat of tariffs has increased risk exposure across asset classes, with European stocks potentially facing double-digit declines [4]. - The euro may experience downward pressure if high tariffs are imposed, affecting its macroeconomic outlook [4]. - Bond markets are reflecting heightened risk aversion, with predictions that short-term euro interest rates could drop below 1.5% and 10-year German bond yields may fall below 2.5% [4]. Negotiation Dynamics - As the August 1 deadline approaches, there is a complex negotiation landscape, with the possibility of temporary agreements but a higher likelihood of tariff increases [5]. - Internal divisions within the EU exist regarding the response to U.S. tariffs, with some countries advocating for caution while others push for a stronger stance [5]. - The ongoing trade uncertainty may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which could serve as an unexpected leverage point for the EU in negotiations [5].