当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普宣布自8月1日起对欧盟输美商品征收30%的关税，此举迅速引发德 国各界反应。 德国联邦经济部长赖歇表示，尽管局势再次升级，仍然希望能够达成一个"务实的谈判结 果"。赖歇表示，在剩余的时间里，欧盟必须努力与美国就主要的、关键的冲突点达成解决方案。欧盟 委员会在这一谈判方向上得到了德国的支持。她还指出，美国所威胁征收的关税不仅会损害欧洲的出口 企业，还会"对大西洋彼岸的经济和消费者产生重大影响"。 德国工业联合会（BDI）将特朗普政府的举 措视为对大西洋两岸工业界的警告信号。该联合会执行委员会成员沃尔夫冈·尼德马克表示，"欧盟和美 国这两个紧密交织的经济区域之间的贸易冲突，会损害经济复苏、创新实力，并最终损害对国际合作的 信任"。他说，"在8月1日关税生效前的几周时间里，必须进行平等的谈判"。 德国对外贸易协会 （BGA）呼吁欧美就关税争端展开谈判。特朗普宣布征收30%的关税是"美国总统精心策划的谈判策略 的一部分"。该协会主席德克·詹杜拉解释说，欧洲绝不能被此吓倒，而必须冷静地在谈判桌上平等地寻 求解决方案。此外，欧洲必须减少对美国市场的依赖。与东盟国家建立自由贸易区，并迅速批 ...

德国工业协会：欧盟与美国之间的贸易冲突损害经济复苏和国际信任。呼吁德国、欧盟和美国尽快寻求 解决方案，避免事态升级。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market closed above the 3500-point mark, indicating a continued recovery in market risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the high point from November 8, 2024 [1][3] - The recent market uptrend is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, suggesting that the market has become desensitized to tariff impacts and has formed sufficient expectations regarding these changes [1] - Key support factors for the ongoing rise in A-shares include the sustained low interest rate environment and the potential for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - The outlook for July suggests that the A-share market may continue to experience event-driven thematic trading, with a high likelihood of sector rotation between high and low-performing segments [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption is a key task for 2025, with expectations for policy support in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like dairy products, IP consumption, leisure tourism, and medical aesthetics [2] - The trend of robot localization and integration into daily life is expected to continue into 2025, with opportunities arising in sensor, controller, and robotic hand sectors as products evolve from humanoid to functional robots [2] Group 3 - The market saw over 2900 stocks rise, with significant gains in sectors such as real estate, oil and petrochemicals, steel, non-bank financials, and coal, while sectors like automotive, media, military, electronics, and utilities faced declines [3] - The military industry is anticipated to see a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery already evident in Q1 reports across various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative drug sector is expected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment, with positive net profit growth observed for three consecutive quarters since Q3 2024 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is testing key positions with some resistance, and the four major stock index futures contracts have declined. Consider a bull spread strategy for index futures [2][3][4]. - Treasury bond futures are likely to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term, and it is recommended to allocate more on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate [5][7]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend, but short - term fluctuations are affected by trade agreements and inflation data. Silver is supported by industrial demand [10][11]. - The container shipping futures market is expected to have a small increase in August if quotes do not fall, and a cautious and bullish attitude towards the 08 contract is recommended [12][13]. - For various metals, such as copper, zinc, and tin, prices are affected by factors like supply - demand, tariffs, and inventory, with different short - term trends and operation suggestions [15][24][27]. - In the black metal sector, steel prices are in a volatile state during the off - season, and iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term [43][47]. - For agricultural products,粕类 markets are bottom - grinding, the pig market has potential supply pressure, and corn prices are in a narrow - range oscillation [55][58][60]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, major indices first rose in the morning and then fluctuated down in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13%, and most stock index futures contracts declined. The base spreads of the four major stock index futures contracts were repaired [2][3]. - **News**: The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The US delegation is expected to meet with Chinese officials in August to discuss trade issues [3][4]. - **Funding**: On July 9, the A - share trading volume increased, and the central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider a bull spread strategy for index futures as the index has broken through the short - term shock range, but be cautious when testing key positions [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed up, and the yields of most major interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market moved up [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 9, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively abundant [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The CPI increase was mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider allocating more on dips for treasury bond futures and pay attention to the capital interest rate. The T2509 may fluctuate between 108.8 - 109.2 [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market News**: Trump announced tariffs on multiple countries, and the EU - US trade dispute focuses on tariffs in specific industries. The Fed's internal officials have differences in decision - making due to the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [8][9]. - **Market Performance**: Gold prices showed a V - shaped reversal after a decline, closing up 0.37%. Silver prices were dragged down by copper prices, closing down 0.99% [10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, and short - term fluctuations are affected by trade agreements and inflation data. Silver is supported by industrial demand [10][11]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: As of July 10, the quotes of major shipping companies were provided [12]. - **Indices**: As of July 7, the SCFIS European line index rose 2.3% month - on - month, and the US West line index fell 1.4% month - on - month [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased by 8.1% year - on - year as of July 8. The PMI data of the Eurozone and the US in June were also provided [12]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures market rose on the previous day. If quotes do not fall, there may be a small increase in August. A cautious and bullish attitude towards the 08 contract is recommended [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 9, copper prices and premiums decreased. Downstream demand was weak, and the supply was not tight [15]. - **Macro**: Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may take effect at the end of July [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper in June decreased slightly but is expected to increase in July [16]. - **Demand**: Short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand has overdrawn Q3 demand [17]. - **Inventory**: Global visible inventories, LME inventories, and Chinese social inventories are low, while COMEX inventories are at a historical high [17]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The short - term trading is driven by US copper tariffs. The price is expected to be volatile and weak, and the main contract may range from 76,000 - 79,500 [18]. Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Oxide**: Spot prices are tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term but with limited upside. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, and the main contract may range from 20,000 - 20,800 [20][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market is in a weak state with both supply and demand being weak. The main contract may range from 19,200 - 20,000 [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The main contract may range from 21,500 - 23,000 [24][27]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - environment is volatile. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [27][31]. - **Nickel**: The macro - risk has increased, and the industry has over - supply. The main contract may range from 118,000 - 126,000 [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract may range from 12,500 - 13,000 [35][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is relatively strong, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The main contract may range from 60,000 - 65,000 [38][42]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: Steel prices were stable, and the basis weakened [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of raw materials has limited upside potential, and the profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [43]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly from the high level, with a more significant decrease in rebar production [44]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the demand in the off - season was resilient [44]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products was basically unchanged, with rebar inventory decreasing and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing slightly [44]. - **View**: The steel price is expected to be volatile during the off - season. The main contract of hot - rolled coil may range from 3,150 - 3,300, and the rebar may range from 3,050 - 3,150 [44]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly, and the futures prices rose [46]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [46]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 47 ports decreased significantly [46]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [47]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2509 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread operation [47]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The futures prices rose, and the spot market was strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may decline slightly. It is recommended to conduct positive spread operations and consider hedging [48][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth - round price cut was implemented on June 23. The price is approaching the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may decline. It is recommended to conduct positive spread operations and consider hedging [52][54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot**: The prices of soybean meal were stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 1,200 tons [55]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean export and growth data, Brazilian soybean export data, and EU soybean import data were provided [55][56]. - **Outlook**: The market is bottom - grinding, and the soybean meal price is in a short - term bottom - grinding state [56]. Other Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The spot price is oscillating. The market has potential supply pressure, and the 09 contract has upward pressure [57][58]. - **Corn**: The spot price decreased slightly. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [59][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: As of July 9, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with polysilicon up over 5%, coking coal up nearly 4%, and several other commodities up over 1% or 2%. Some contracts like international copper, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai nickel declined over 1%. Stock index futures mostly fell slightly, while treasury bond futures were mixed [7]. - **Commodity - Specific**: - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is strong, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and coking enterprises have a price - increase expectation. However, the supply - demand surplus situation has not been reversed, and the upside space is expected to be limited, with short - term trading likely to be volatile and slightly strong [3]. - **Copper**: The US copper tariff has been finalized, but the implementation time is uncertain. The supply shortage expectation may improve, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season. Under the current market sentiment of expecting price drops, caution is advised when short - selling [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and deviates from the fundamentals. The supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. If the demand recovers as expected, the price may be boosted [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has significantly decreased, but the subsequent development of the situation still needs attention. OPEC + plans to increase production, and the oil price is expected to trade in a range [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with attention to the development of the global trade war [15]. - **Plastic**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with attention to the development of the global trade war [16]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand has not improved substantially, the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [18]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term inventory pressure is rising, the demand is weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in July, with attention to oil refinery ship purchases and imported soybean arrivals [19][20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price may be affected by the oil price. It is necessary to pay attention to the US biodiesel policy [21]. - **Rebar**: The supply contraction is less than expected, the demand has not increased significantly, the inventory may accumulate, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range [22][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to trade in a volatile manner [24]. - **Urea**: Affected by the improvement of the Indian tender price, the domestic market sentiment is high. Although the demand is weak, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term, with attention to export policies [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Hot - Spot Varieties - **Coking Coal**: Opened high and closed high, with prices rising. The supply is affected by imports and domestic production, and the demand is affected by downstream profits and production. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [3]. - **Copper**: The US plans to impose tariffs on imported copper, affecting the price. The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is expected to enter the off - season. Caution is advised when short - selling [4][5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened low and closed high, with prices rising. The supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, OPEC + plans to increase production, and the price is expected to trade in a range [11][12]. 3.2 Other Commodities - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by funds and weather, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [15]. - **Plastic**: The downstream start - up rate is low, the supply pressure is partially relieved, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range [16]. - **PVC**: The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand has not improved substantially, and it is expected to trade in a low - level range, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [18]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term inventory pressure is rising, the demand is weak, and it is expected to trade in a range in July [19][20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price may be affected by the oil price [21]. - **Rebar**: The supply contraction is less than expected, the demand has not increased significantly, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range [22][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to trade in a volatile manner [24]. - **Urea**: Affected by the Indian tender price, the domestic market sentiment is high. It is expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short term [27].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend, with a notable recovery in market risk appetite, approaching the 3500-point mark, supported by a low interest rate environment and expectations of policy stimulus [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a broad-based rally, with over 4200 stocks rising, indicating a strong profit-making effect and increased trading volume [3]. - The market's upward movement is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, reflecting a desensitization to tariff impacts [1]. - Key sectors leading the gains include telecommunications, power equipment, electronics, and construction materials, while banking and utilities experienced declines [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trajectory due to low interest rates and a recovering risk appetite, particularly in high-risk sectors like non-bank finance, media, and military industry [1]. - July is anticipated to be driven by event-based themes, with potential high-low sector rotations, particularly in consumer goods and robotics, as well as semiconductor localization trends [2]. - The innovation drug sector is projected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2].

当地时间8日，德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔在德国联邦议院提交德国财政预算案时谈及目前欧盟和 美国的关税谈判。克林拜尔表示，欧盟希望能够与美国达成关税协议，但是这份协议必须是公平的，否 则欧盟将会对美国采取反制措施。德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔8日称，美国加征关税危及大西洋两 岸的就业，这场贸易冲突对所有人都有害，必须尽快结束。欧盟只有团结一致才能应对全球性挑战。 (央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - The article discusses India's unexpected assertiveness against the United States, contrasting its previous cooperative stance [1][8] - The U.S. has issued a final ultimatum to 165 countries regarding tariffs, with a deadline for new agreements set for July 9 [3][5] - The tension in tariff negotiations has escalated, with India firmly stating that agriculture and dairy products are "red lines" that cannot be crossed [7][10] Group 2 - India's agricultural sector, which contributes 16% to its GDP and supports 580 million rural inhabitants, is a critical area of resistance against U.S. demands [10][12] - The U.S. has been pushing for zero tariffs on various agricultural products, but India has firmly rejected these demands, emphasizing the cultural significance of its agricultural practices [15][21] - India's large population and agricultural base provide it with strategic depth to withstand external pressures [22][25] Group 3 - The article highlights India's realization that it is not alone in resisting U.S. pressure, as other nations like Japan and the EU are also hesitant to compromise [25][29] - India's response to the U.S. is influenced by China's successful negotiation with the U.S., inspiring India to assert its own position [27][29] - The Indian government is shifting towards a more independent foreign policy, seeking true strategic autonomy rather than being a pawn in U.S. strategies [33][35]

Market Overview - The latest tariff threats from the Trump administration have led to a sell-off in risk assets, causing declines in U.S. stock index futures and European stock indices [1] - The U.S. plans to impose export restrictions on AI chips, resulting in a broad decline in European chip stocks [1] - Safe-haven assets like gold saw a price increase of nearly $20, while oil prices fell due to recent production increase news [1] U.S. Stock Futures - On July 4, the U.S. stock and bond markets were closed for Independence Day, but prior to the holiday, S&P 500 futures fell by 0.69%, Dow futures dropped by 0.61%, and Nasdaq 100 futures decreased by 0.71% [3][4] European Stock Indices - The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.48%, with a weekly decline of 0.46% [5] - The Eurozone STOXX 50 index fell by 1.02%, accumulating a weekly drop of 0.69% [6] - The German DAX 30 index decreased by 0.61%, with a weekly decline of 1.02% [7] - The French CAC 40 index fell by 0.75%, with a slight weekly increase of 0.06% [7] - The UK FTSE 100 index remained flat, closing at 8822.91 points, with a weekly increase of 0.27% [8] Sector Performance - European chip stocks experienced a broad decline, with ASML Holdings dropping approximately 2.6% [9] - Following the announcement of anti-dumping duties on EU brandy by China's Ministry of Commerce, Remy Cointreau's stock fell by 7.2% before recovering to close up by 2% [9] Bond Market - The U.S. bond market was closed on July 4, but European bond markets showed strength on the preceding Friday [9] - The German 10-year bond yield fell by 0.8 basis points, while the UK 10-year bond yield rose by 1.3 basis points [13] Commodity Market - Gold prices increased by 0.33%, closing at $3337.15 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.92% [21] - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures down by 0.76%, closing at $66.49 per barrel [16]

Core Viewpoint - The United States has threatened to impose a 17% tariff on EU agricultural exports, escalating trade tensions ahead of a deadline for a trade agreement [1] Group 1: Trade Conflict - The U.S. has made a last-minute demand for a trade agreement with the EU, threatening a 20% tariff on all EU goods if no agreement is reached [1] - EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic received the U.S. demand during a meeting in Washington and communicated it to the ambassadors of the 27 member states [1] - EU Commission President von der Leyen expressed hope for a "principle agreement" to allow continued negotiations before a final deal is reached [1]