暴风雨来之前，不会给太多准备的时间，近152万人爆仓190亿美元，比特币闪崩15%，美股集体滑铁卢。 为什么原因导致的黑色星期五？会不会波及黄金？ 未来，金价突破1000元只是时间问题，牛市没有结束，只是过程中并非一直保持强势不调整的上涨，这一点一定要有心理准备，看多也要注意回调风险， 现在市场接受不了一点黄金回调的言论，往往这个时候风险正在酝酿中。 周五，黄金市场表现强硬，并没受抛售影响而下调，内部直播中强调3965-60美元的支撑是关键，也刚好抵达此位置，多空防守位置在3940美元，这一次 上涨是否继续重点要关注3940美元的得失，没有破位前看多思路不变，一旦破位就要提高风险意识。 下周一，向上继续关注4025-4035美元的压力位置，阶段性高位震荡修正也是好事，为未来更好的上涨留足空间，修正不是见顶，而是酝酿更大的上涨， 过去踏空者可通过"定价"定投的方式持续介入，而不是定时定投，也就是价格每掉5-8元定投一次分批建仓。 还有，贸易冲突也是反复无常，自今年1月20日特朗普上任，关税问题时而紧张，时而缓和，10月7日美国单方向宣布对中重型卡车税收25%关税，贸易冲 突一直是牵动着投资者情绪。 关键在于10 ...

【文/观察者网 齐倩】 美国特朗普政府打出关税"七伤拳"，害人不成，反噬其身。 据路透社10月8日报道，在特朗普对巴西、中国征收高额关税后，巴西农产品扩大对中国等新市场的出 口。最新数据显示，巴西近期对华牛肉、大豆出口量激增，助推这两项农产品出口总量双双创新高。 其中，中国市场对巴西牛肉需求强劲，巴西9月牛肉对华出口量同比增长38.3%，创下单月出口量新 高。 巴西大豆填补美国空缺 粮食出口商协会Anec 8日预测，截至10月底，巴西的大豆出口量预计将达到创纪录的1.022亿吨，打破 了2023年创下的1.013亿吨纪录。 路透社称，大豆出口量创纪录，原因在于巴西收获创纪录的超过1.7亿吨大豆，以及巴西农民受益于中 国的强劲需求。受美国关税影响，中国买家不再购买美国大豆。 "中国仍然是巴西大豆运输的主要目的地和驱动力，"Anec在报告中说，上个月，中国从巴西进口了650 万吨大豆，占巴西大豆出口总量的93%。 Anec数据显示，当前，中国买家主要依靠巴西来保证大豆供应，占巴西大豆出口总额的79.9%，而这一 比例在2021年至2024年期间为74%。 在巴西大豆出口总量中，中国市场占比超79%Anec制图 A ...

特朗普在8月时曾亲自推销美国的大豆，但并没有收到预期的回应。美国农业州的农民开始向华府发声，抱怨找不到买家，收割机的忙碌却没有人前来购 买。到了10月1日，特朗普终于在社交媒体上表示，他计划在即将召开的APEC峰会上将大豆问题作为一个"主要议题"进行讨论。他甚至表示，将用从关税 中"赚到的钱"来补贴农民，同时指责前任总统拜登，让中国放弃了数十亿美元的大豆订单。 从今年5月起，中国已经没有再从美国进口大豆，这一变化意味着27年来的首次。造成这一局面的，是双方互相加征的高额关税。美国挑起了贸易冲突，而 中国则做出了回应。虽然两国的行动都符合贸易规则，但它们的后果却充满了冲突。 此前，中美曾达成共识，暂停关税战，窗口期持续到11月10号。如果无法达成协议，美国计划对中国加征145%的关税，中方则会对美方加征125%的关税。 这一举措几乎意味着双方的贸易将陷入全面瘫痪。美国的通胀将会飙升，普通家庭的生活成本将会进一步增加。而美国这两年已经面临着较大的生活成本压 力，牛奶、鸡蛋和汽油等商品的价格，已经让不少家庭感到吃力。这些问题远不是简单的政治话术，而是美国人日常生活中的真实困境。 许多人猜测，中国会不会在APEC峰会 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of U.S.-China agricultural trade, particularly focusing on the absence of U.S. soybean orders from China this season, which is attributed to the ongoing trade conflict initiated by former President Trump [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Agricultural Trade Situation - U.S. soybean orders from China are currently at zero, indicating a significant decline in trade relations [1][2]. - Republican Senator Mike Rounds expressed that China is intentionally not purchasing U.S. agricultural products, viewing this as a long-term issue [1][2]. - U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins acknowledged the poor state of the agricultural economy and indicated that a relief plan for farmers would be announced soon [1][6]. Group 2: Political Reactions and Implications - Republican senators are increasingly frustrated with Trump's trade policies, especially as farmers face economic hardships due to the trade conflict [2][3]. - Senator John Hoeven claimed that China is using U.S. farmers as bargaining chips in negotiations, emphasizing the need to protect farmers' interests [3]. - The situation has raised concerns among Republican lawmakers regarding the upcoming midterm elections, as farmers were a crucial support base for Trump [3][6]. Group 3: Competition from Argentina - Argentina has taken advantage of the situation by reducing export taxes, allowing it to increase soybean exports to China, further impacting U.S. market share [4][5]. - Senator Chuck Grassley criticized the U.S. government's support for Argentina while American farmers are losing their largest market [5][6]. - The U.S. government plans to use tariff revenues to provide financial assistance to struggling farmers, highlighting the ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector [6][7].

美农民破大防！ 据外媒消息，往年9月份，美农民都会喜气洋洋，到农田收割大豆。因为这是我国买家开始下单的时 间。但今年情况出现了变化：自5月以来，中方没有购买过美一粒大豆。 根据记录，这是1998年之后，第一次没有购买美大豆。更令人扎心的是，在将大豆关税提高23%之后， 川普原本对农民所承诺的补贴，至今一毛钱都没有兑现。 川普想要用关税大棒吓唬人，结果先倒霉的是自己人。 中美之间的大豆博弈由来已久。 2001年之前，我国多次申请WTO均被美拒绝，原因之一就是美方要求我们开放粮食市场，我们不同 意。经过多轮谈判后，双方各退一步，我国用"开放大豆市场"的代价，换得了进入WTO的机会。 这时候，美就开始玩起了骚操作。 2003年，美农业部宣布因为旱情，连续4个月调低大豆的预期库存，大豆价格应声暴涨。次年3月，他们 再次宣布不会进行增产，大豆价格继续上涨。 中企害怕价格还会攀升，纷纷和美企签署高价采购合同。然而，等合同到手后，美农业部却话风一转， 表示之前大豆库存统计数据有误，实际上并不缺大豆。消息一出，大豆价格开启暴跌。 而刚签完合同的中企直接傻眼，要是按合同约定的高价采购那会亏的一塌糊涂，只好被迫违约，支付天 价违 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around President Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on China and India due to their continued oil purchases from Russia, which the U.S. views as support for Russia's war efforts, particularly against Ukraine [1][3][5] - The proposal has faced significant opposition from key allies, including Japan and the European Union, who prioritize their economic relationships with China and India over U.S. demands [3][5][7] - Japan's Finance Minister expressed that imposing tariffs solely based on oil purchases from Russia is unacceptable, highlighting Japan's economic dependence on trade with China and the potential negative impact on its own economy [3][5] Group 2 - The European Union has shown reluctance to support the U.S. tariff proposal, citing the importance of maintaining economic ties with China and India, particularly in sectors like automotive and electronics [5][7] - The unilateral pressure from the U.S. is seen as ineffective, as countries like Japan, the EU, and India are making decisions based on their own economic interests rather than following U.S. directives [7] - Future U.S.-China relations may hinge on the ability of both parties to engage in equal dialogue, with potential for cooperation in areas such as technology, agriculture, and energy, rather than escalating tensions through unilateral actions [8]

Group 1 - The market experienced a decline last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.44%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.30%, and the CSI 500 index up by 0.32% [3] - Economic data for August was below market expectations, with weak production, consumption, and new housing sales data [3] - The recent economic performance in China has been significantly impacted by declining exports, with real estate sales in first-tier cities continuing to decline [3][4] Group 2 - The technical market features indicate a significant shift in capital allocation, with the financial sector becoming a major variable in the index decline, while the technology sector has absorbed funds from the financial sector [4] - The recommendation for the main board is to reduce positions to a low level and focus on avoiding risks, as the market is expected to revert to mean levels [4] - The small-cap sector showed stronger performance than the main board but is likely supported by speculative funds, suggesting a reduction in positions to a low level [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have returned to $3,400, indicating a cyclical nature in the market despite ongoing uncertainties such as unresolved trade conflicts and geopolitical risks [1] - The gold market is characterized by a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with $3,300 serving as a central pivot point, where bulls currently have a slight advantage [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of letting go of non-mainstream trading trends and reducing pressure on oneself when making trading decisions [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that the interest rate decision remains undecided, contributing to market volatility [1] - It suggests that excessive defensiveness can lead to hesitation in trading, advocating for a more relaxed approach to entering and exiting trades [1] - The overall sentiment reflects a need for traders to reconcile with their strategies and avoid overthinking their decisions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The freight index (European line) futures prices mostly rose on Monday, with the main contract EC2510 up 2.57% and the far - month contracts down 1% to 1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 55.31 points from last week, a 8.7% decline. Spot indicators are falling, expected to drive down futures prices. Top shipping companies are in a "price war", and market expectations are turning cold. The plan to impose tariffs on steel, chips and semiconductors increases global trade uncertainty. The Fed's view on interest - rate cuts is divided, and the market's expectation of a September rate cut is weakening. The Q2 2025 euro - zone GDP growth slightly exceeded expectations, and the ECB has more flexibility in interest - rate policy. Overall, due to trade war uncertainties, weak demand expectations for the freight index (European line), and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1358.000, up 8.50; EC second - main contract closing price: 1696.7 - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: + 13.50 (up), EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 138.90, up 17.10 - EC contract basis: - 238.97 (down) - EC main contract open interest: 54357, up 102 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1041.38, down 64.91 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (no change) - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1757.74, down 32.73 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1944.00, down 51.00; Panama freight index (daily): 1770.00, down 51.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 13907.00, up 118.00; average charter price (Capesize ship): 19777.00, down 1423.00 [1] Industry News - China and the US are natural agricultural cooperation partners, and China is the largest export market for US agricultural products - Fed Chairman Powell said the risk balance is changing, and traders increased bets on a September rate cut - US President Trump threatened to fire Fed Governor Cook if she doesn't resign voluntarily [1] Key Data to Focus On - August 26, 20:30: US July durable goods orders monthly rate - August 26, 21:00: US June FHFA housing price index monthly rate - August 26, 21:00: US June S&P/CS20 major cities unadjusted housing price index annual rate [1]

Private Equity Market Review - The Hong Kong Jockey Club is withdrawing up to $1 billion from Blackstone Group and other acquisition firms, selling U.S. assets due to escalating trade tensions since the beginning of Trump's presidency [6] - Other Asian funds and wealthy investors are also reducing investments in the U.S. market, citing concerns over the unpredictability caused by trade conflicts [6] Hedge Fund Market Overview - Bloomberg's preliminary data shows hedge funds rose by 1.2% last month, with the event-driven hedge fund index leading the gains [6] - Year-to-date, hedge funds have increased by 5.3%, with equity funds showing the highest growth at 8.7% [6] - Castle Investment and Dymon Asia Capital are increasing talent acquisition in Asia to expand their operations in the region [6] Fund Performance Data - The Bloomberg All Hedge Fund Index closed on July 31, 2025, with a 1-month return of 1.19%, a 3-month return of 5.95%, and a year-to-date total return of 5.34% [7] - The Bloomberg Equity Hedge Index reported a 1-month return of 1.63% and a year-to-date return of 8.75% [7] - The Bloomberg Event Driven Hedge Index showed a 1-month return of 3.51% and a year-to-date return of 6.16% [7] Industry Developments - New Silk Road Investment Pte, one of Singapore's oldest hedge funds, is set to close due to poor returns and significant asset shrinkage from nearly $2 billion in 2021 to $615 million by the end of last year [6] - The closure reflects the increasing challenges faced by smaller hedge funds amid market volatility and intensified geopolitical competition [6] - Millennium Management has allocated funds to external management companies in South Korea, indicating a trend of diversification in investment strategies [8]