1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on April 25, 2025, basically continued the wording of previous meetings but emphasized implementation and accelerating efforts. It showed a policy approach of speeding up the implementation of existing policies while reserving room for incremental policies to deal with "international economic and trade struggles" [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Overall Tone - The meeting affirmed the 5.4% GDP growth in Q1 and the resilience of the stock market. It adopted an attitude of not rushing to increase policies, focusing on implementing policies from previous meetings. However, it required policies to be "accelerated, intensified, and fully utilized", with accelerated implementation being a practical measure for stable growth [4]. - Although there were not many new incremental policies, the policy - makers were worried about the external situation. They added a paragraph on future policy space, indicating that reserve policies would be introduced according to the actual situation [5]. 3.2 Main Policy Orientations - The overall policy tone and specific measures in the monetary and fiscal fields generally continued from previous meetings, but with an emphasis on accelerating implementation. For example, in the "local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", the requirement of "accelerating issuance and use" was added [7][8]. 3.3 Outlook on Potential Policy Space Monetary Policy - In terms of aggregate tools, the short - term probability of comprehensive liquidity injection is low as the base money gap is not large. However, if external pressure increases or economic data deteriorates, aggregate monetary policies may be implemented. If the Fed cuts interest rates in the second half of the year, it will open up room for domestic easing [10]. - For structural tools, since the meeting directly mentioned creating new structural monetary policy tools, it is likely to be implemented in Q2, targeting weak areas such as foreign trade and domestic demand [10]. Fiscal Policy - In the first half of the year, the "Two Sessions" announced quotas will be mainly used. In the second half, the annual budget deficit may be increased depending on fiscal revenue and actual deficits, possibly at the NPC Standing Committee meetings in even - numbered months. Fiscal investment is expected to tilt towards foreign trade and consumption. Budget - external fiscal tools may be implemented in Q2 [11]. Real Estate Policy - The meeting basically continued the previous tone, focusing on long - term system construction, acquisitions, and urban village renovation. If domestic economic downward pressure increases, real estate policies are likely to be strengthened [12]. 3.4 Key Areas of Future Work - The meeting put forward "Four Stabilities": "stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations", with stabilizing employment and enterprises at the forefront. Many employment - stabilizing measures were proposed, and promoting service consumption was also emphasized as a way to increase employment [14]. - The meeting continued to attach importance to technological innovation, mentioning "cultivating new productive forces", key core technology research, and the "AI +" action. It also proposed to launch a "technology board" in the bond market to support key areas [14].

免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2506） | 最新 3730.6 | 环比 数据指标 -7.0↓ IF次主力合约（2505） | 最新 3762.2 | 环比 -8.0↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2506） | 2628.0 | +1.6↑ IH次主力合约（2505） | 2645.4 | +2.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2506） | 5471.0 | -28.8↓ IC次主力合约（2505） | 5556.0 | -29.8↓ | | | IM主力合约（2506） | 5729.0 | -56.0↓ ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for stronger macroeconomic policies to stabilize the economy amid increasing external shocks, highlighting the importance of proactive fiscal and monetary measures to support growth and employment [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - In Q1, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rates of the previous year and positioning it among the leading global economies [2]. - The meeting acknowledged the need to solidify the foundation for ongoing economic recovery due to heightened external pressures [2]. Policy Tools - The meeting called for the enhancement of the policy toolbox to include both flexibility and unconventional features, aiming to respond effectively to economic fluctuations [2]. - It was noted that the policies should be timely and responsive to changes in the economic landscape, with a focus on stabilizing employment and economic growth [2][3]. Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated the commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy through structural monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts and the establishment of new financial instruments [4][5]. - Recent data indicated a significant increase in social financing, with March's increment reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, reflecting robust monetary support for economic recovery [4]. Fiscal Policy - The meeting emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds, with a total issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan announced [6]. - The focus will be on expediting fiscal spending and optimizing expenditure structures to ensure the stability of basic public services [6][7]. Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that fiscal policies may include measures such as increasing the issuance of government bonds and expanding consumer subsidies to stimulate new consumption growth areas [7]. - The meeting highlighted the urgency of addressing local government debts owed to enterprises, indicating a potential allocation of funds to resolve these issues [7].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观月报 宏观 国内再提超常规逆周期调节 美国关税政策高度不确定 2025 年 4 月 27 日 ⚫ 主要结论 中共中央政治局强调，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，再提超常规 逆周期调节。4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和 经济工作。会议指出，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自 己的事，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。宏观政 策基调方面，会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，对宏观政策 的落地提出一定要求；会议再提超常规逆周期调节。财政政策方面，会议强 调，加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。货币政策方面， 会议强调，适时降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性 金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。后期，基础货币投放， 仍需关注国债买卖、买断式逆回购、新的结构性货币政策工具以及新型政策 性金融工具。由于美国关税政策，我国对外贸易相对承压，人民币短期有贬 值压力；但是，中长期来看，人民币仍然不宜过度贬值。从年内在岸美元兑 人民币走势来看，或以宽幅波动为主，区间或为 7.0 至 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Market Stability - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic stability and growth [2][9] - The meeting highlighted the importance of a vibrant capital market, which is crucial for corporate financing, wealth growth, and macroeconomic stability [2][10] - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement a range of monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts, to stimulate consumption and investment demand [3][9] Group 2: Economic Performance and Challenges - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 was reported at 5.4% year-on-year, with a nominal growth rate of 4.6%, indicating a solid foundation for stable economic growth [4] - Despite external challenges, China's export performance remained robust in Q1 2025, with the impact of U.S. tariffs not yet significantly affecting trade [4][6] - The CF40 report indicated that while macroeconomic recovery is underway, challenges such as tariff impacts and declining fiscal revenues in Q2 2025 could pose risks [4][6] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The investment landscape is characterized by both opportunities and risks, with the potential for market volatility due to ongoing global trade conflicts [7][10] - The real estate market's recovery is uncertain, with expectations for stabilization in 2024 and gradual improvement in 2025, influenced by policy effectiveness and market confidence [8][10] - The private equity market is showing resilience, but traditional investment strategies may need to adapt to the rapidly changing environment [12] Group 4: Strategic Investment Framework - The N.E.X.T matrix framework is proposed for restructuring investment strategies, focusing on necessary foundational research, evolutionary growth opportunities, cross-sector integration, and transformative societal impacts [13][14] - Key investment areas include life sciences, new materials, artificial intelligence applications, and innovative healthcare solutions, which are expected to drive long-term growth [13][14]

周内(4月21日至4月25日)，大宗商品涨跌不一，基本金属、黑色系板块领涨，航运板块领跌。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨1.51%、原油上涨1.10%，碳酸锂下跌2.85%；黑 色系板块，铁矿石周上涨1.43%、焦煤上涨0.37%；基本金属板块，沪镍周上涨0.05%、沪锌上涨 3.17%、沪铜上涨1.71%；农产品板块，棕榈油周上涨3.00%、豆粕上涨0.33%、生猪下跌2.18%。航运板 块，集运欧线周下跌10.95%。交易行情热点 热点一：美联储独立性受影响，黄金收出高位十字星 黄金本周盘中价格创出新高，COMEX黄金一度突破3500美元盎司关口，随后快速回落，COMEX黄金 和伦敦金周线均收出十字星。具体来看，COMEX黄金下跌0.33%，报3330.2美元/盎司；伦敦金下跌 0.17%，报3318.62美元/盎司。 据南华期货（603093）统计：长线基金持仓看，上周SPDR黄金ETF持仓周减6吨至946.3；iShares白银 ETF持仓周减164.1吨至13956吨。短线基金持仓看，根据截至4月22日的CFTC持仓报告，黄金非商业净 多头寸周减26832张至175378张，其中 ...

中国发展改革报社评论员|张洽棠 扩大内需与促进开放协同。 内需是中国经济的"发动机"，本次政治局会议提出，设立服务消费与养老再贷款，定向支持服务与消费 领域，要求"尽快清理消费领域限制性措施"，这些是在需求侧的细分领域进行深入创新，充分释放消费 潜在活力。同时，会议还提出"提高中低收入群体收入"，这是从收入端努力解决消费的动力源问题，使 得人民群众能花、敢花且想花，让消费这驾"马车"跑得更稳、更快且更好。 近日，扩大服务业开放试点新增9个城市，允许外资控股医疗机构等政策频出。我国制度型开放的步子 越走越快，同时，面对关税等国际博弈，会议也明确提出"反对单边霸凌行径"。目前，外部环境充满了 不确定性，也对部分企业造成了一定的冲击，不过，包括内外贸一体化等"组合拳"在较大程度上实现了 风险对冲，让广大外贸企业真切体会到了国家的温暖。 短期政策发力与长期制度建设兼顾。 当前，在面对国际国内纷繁复杂的局面时，我们更多地展现出战略主动出击，将主动权牢牢掌握在自己 手中。这既是发展韧性的真实体现，也是改革创新的生动写照。 会议的政策基调十分明确，即"加强超常规逆周期调节"，要求财政与货币政策双轮驱动、超常规发力。 不仅有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry, indicating a relative strength compared to the market benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The April 25 meeting of the Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations in response to external shocks [9]. - The report highlights the acceleration of fiscal policy, with local special bonds and long-term special government bonds expected to be issued more rapidly, potentially boosting project funding demand [9]. - Monetary policy is expected to continue with "timely" reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, alongside the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors [9]. - The report identifies two main investment themes: high-dividend stocks and those with improved risk expectations, suggesting specific banks for investment [9]. Summary by Sections Banking Industry Overview - The banking sector is anticipated to experience profound impacts from the current phase of intensive growth-stabilizing policies, with fiscal policy expected to support social financing and credit, thereby boosting economic expectations [9]. - The report notes that while bank net interest margins may face short-term pressure, regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation will provide important support for margins in 2025 [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), and China Merchants Bank (600036) [9]. - It also recommends stocks with strong fundamentals and less disruption from bond market adjustments, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077), Chongqing Bank (601963), Jiangsu Bank (600919), Shanghai Bank (601229), and Qingdao Bank (002948) [9].

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The macroeconomic focus is on "coordinating domestic economic work and international trade struggles," emphasizing the need for the U.S. to adhere to WTO rules and eliminate tariffs on China[2] - The first quarter GDP growth of 5.4% is influenced by factors like export rush, and April exports are expected to decline by approximately 2% year-on-year due to tariff impacts[2][6] - The 5% GDP growth target for the year remains a priority, with historical context suggesting reaffirmation in mid-year meetings[2] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Expectations - The report suggests that the pace of policy implementation may accelerate in response to external pressures, advocating for proactive measures to expand domestic demand[2] - The anticipated fiscal stimulus could range from 1.5 to 3 trillion yuan, based on the estimated impact of tariffs on GDP[2][8] - The concept of "bottom-line thinking" implies that policies should aim for comprehensive support rather than merely maintaining minimum standards, indicating potential for more aggressive policy measures[2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - Proposed measures include monetary easing, targeted support for export enterprises, and initiatives to boost consumption among low-income groups[2][8] - Infrastructure investment and real estate policies are expected to be prioritized, with potential for increased government spending and relaxed purchasing restrictions in major cities[2][8] - The report outlines various policy scenarios and their potential economic impacts, suggesting a range of 630 billion to 1.37 trillion yuan in necessary countermeasures depending on tariff conditions[8]

中国经济，正频频让人感到"超预期"。 一季度经济同比增速5.4%，超出了很多国内外机构的预测，而过去往往在四月底召开的中央政治局会议，来得也比往年更早一 些。 时间本身也是信号。 当前，经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大，在这样的国内外情况下，及时召开会议并向社会传递应对 当前形势的决策判断与工作部署，可以帮助各界更好认识当前经济形势，统一思想认识，也可以更好凝聚共识。 细看中央政治局会议新闻通稿，多处表述之前都很少见。比如这句， "统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸斗争" 。和2018年的"经贸摩 擦"相比，"经贸斗争"反映出中央对当前国际形势的严峻性、长期性和艰巨性的最新判断，也正基于这样的判断，会议提出要"强化 底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做好经济工作。" 以变应变。 会议提出， "要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期" ，也蕴含不少新意。 "稳就业"排在首位，"对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例"，表明在外部冲击加大的情况下，对就业这个民 生之首的高度重视。 稳企业、稳市场，"多措并举帮扶困难企业"，透露出宏观决策对微观经济运行主体的关切度在进一步提升。在去年9月以来一 ...