央广网北京4月30日消息（记者 冯方）4月30日，央行发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年4月央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展了12000亿元买断式逆回购操作。其中，3个月期7000亿元，6个月期5000亿元。 2024年10月，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，进一步丰富央行货币政策工具箱，央行决定启用公开市场买断式逆回购操作工具。操作对象为公开市场业务 一级交易商，原则上每月开展一次操作，期限不超过1年。公开市场买断式逆回购采用固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标，回购标的包括国债、地方政府 债券、金融债券、公司信用类债券等。 根据央行公告，2024年10月至2025年4月，央行已开展7次买断式逆回购操作，规模分别为5000亿元、8000亿元、14000亿元、17000亿元、14000亿元、8000 亿元、12000亿元。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对央广财经记者表示："4月，央行分别开展7000亿3个月期和5000亿6个月期买断式逆回购。由于本月分别有1.2万亿3个月期和 5000亿6个月期买断式逆回购到期，因此4月央行买断式逆回购操作缩量5000亿。不过，由于本月MLF净投放量为5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting a mixed economic outlook for China [1][10]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][6]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to two main factors: significant changes in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a drop following the peak in March [5][11]. - High-tech manufacturing continues to show resilience, with a PMI of 51.5%, indicating ongoing expansion despite a slight decline [7]. Service Sector - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from March, but still within the expansion range [1][10]. - The service sector's performance is supported by seasonal factors such as the Qingming holiday, which boosted tourism and related services [10]. - Certain high-growth industries within the service sector, such as telecommunications and IT services, maintain strong activity levels, with indices above 55.0% [10]. Economic Policy Outlook - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of policy rate cuts increases after two consecutive months of manufacturing PMI in contraction, with expectations for timely adjustments in the second quarter [3][12]. - The construction sector's PMI is at 51.9%, reflecting a decline due to reduced real estate investment, but infrastructure-related activities show promise with a business activity index of 60.9% [10]. - The government is expected to implement more aggressive macroeconomic policies to stimulate demand and support infrastructure investment, as indicated by recent political meetings [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a reasonable recovery in prices to support macroeconomic stability, as current GDP growth is not aligned with low price levels, indicating a "quantity-price divergence" [1][4][6] - The article discusses the phenomenon where companies opt for "price for volume" strategies, leading to price declines while maintaining production, which can undermine market confidence [4][5] - Historical lessons from Japan's economic experience in the 1990s highlight the importance of setting price targets to ensure economic health, as mere GDP growth is insufficient [5][7][8] Group 2 - The adjustment of the CPI growth target from 3% to a more realistic 2% reflects a pragmatic approach to economic policy, emphasizing the need for a balance between quantity and price [8] - The article suggests that current monetary and fiscal policies prioritize GDP growth over price stability, indicating a need for increased focus on price metrics in future policy frameworks [8][9] - The goal for 2025 is to achieve approximately 5% GDP growth, but achieving a positive GDP deflator may require extraordinary policy measures, highlighting the critical role of price targets in economic planning [8][9]

电话：0595-86778969 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2506） | 最新 3724.8 | 环比 数据指标 -8.0↓ IF次主力合约（2505） | 最新 3757.8 | 环比 -7.8↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2506） | 2621.2 | -9.2↓ IH次主力合约（2505） | 2639.0 | -8.6↓ | | | IC主力合约（2506） | 5487.2 | +12.8↑ IC次主力合约（2505） | 5573.8 | +13.4↑ | | | IM主力合约（2506） | 5773.6 | +40.4↑ IM次主力合约（2505） | 5868.0 | +35.0↑ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1118.8 | +2.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1816.0 | +22.2↑ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 294.2 | + ...

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 4月25日，中央政治局召开会议指出，要不断完善稳就业稳经济的 政策工具箱，既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节， 全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。 4月28日，国新办举行新闻发布会，邀请国家发展改革委、人力资源社会保障部、商务部、中国人民银 行相关负责人出席，详解稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措，主要包括五方面内容，分别是支持 就业、稳定外贸发展、促进消费、积极扩大有效投资、营造稳定发展良好环境等。 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在发布会上表示，不管国际局势如何变化，将锚定发展目标，保持战略定 力，集中精力办好自己的事，对实现今年经济社会发展目标任务充满信心。下一步，将积极抓好若干举 措落实，同时还将常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备，充分备足预案，不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工 具箱，根据形势变化及时出台增量储备政策。 有接近有关部委的分析人士对21世纪经济报道记者表示，美国推出所谓"对等关税"，且高关税、科技打 压等政策存在反复，要以内部高质量发展的确定性来应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。扩内需是必须 要做的事情，因此相关政策会在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on April 25, 2025, basically continued the wording of previous meetings but emphasized implementation and accelerating efforts. It showed a policy approach of speeding up the implementation of existing policies while reserving room for incremental policies to deal with "international economic and trade struggles" [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Overall Tone - The meeting affirmed the 5.4% GDP growth in Q1 and the resilience of the stock market. It adopted an attitude of not rushing to increase policies, focusing on implementing policies from previous meetings. However, it required policies to be "accelerated, intensified, and fully utilized", with accelerated implementation being a practical measure for stable growth [4]. - Although there were not many new incremental policies, the policy - makers were worried about the external situation. They added a paragraph on future policy space, indicating that reserve policies would be introduced according to the actual situation [5]. 3.2 Main Policy Orientations - The overall policy tone and specific measures in the monetary and fiscal fields generally continued from previous meetings, but with an emphasis on accelerating implementation. For example, in the "local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", the requirement of "accelerating issuance and use" was added [7][8]. 3.3 Outlook on Potential Policy Space Monetary Policy - In terms of aggregate tools, the short - term probability of comprehensive liquidity injection is low as the base money gap is not large. However, if external pressure increases or economic data deteriorates, aggregate monetary policies may be implemented. If the Fed cuts interest rates in the second half of the year, it will open up room for domestic easing [10]. - For structural tools, since the meeting directly mentioned creating new structural monetary policy tools, it is likely to be implemented in Q2, targeting weak areas such as foreign trade and domestic demand [10]. Fiscal Policy - In the first half of the year, the "Two Sessions" announced quotas will be mainly used. In the second half, the annual budget deficit may be increased depending on fiscal revenue and actual deficits, possibly at the NPC Standing Committee meetings in even - numbered months. Fiscal investment is expected to tilt towards foreign trade and consumption. Budget - external fiscal tools may be implemented in Q2 [11]. Real Estate Policy - The meeting basically continued the previous tone, focusing on long - term system construction, acquisitions, and urban village renovation. If domestic economic downward pressure increases, real estate policies are likely to be strengthened [12]. 3.4 Key Areas of Future Work - The meeting put forward "Four Stabilities": "stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations", with stabilizing employment and enterprises at the forefront. Many employment - stabilizing measures were proposed, and promoting service consumption was also emphasized as a way to increase employment [14]. - The meeting continued to attach importance to technological innovation, mentioning "cultivating new productive forces", key core technology research, and the "AI +" action. It also proposed to launch a "technology board" in the bond market to support key areas [14].

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Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for stronger macroeconomic policies to stabilize the economy amid increasing external shocks, highlighting the importance of proactive fiscal and monetary measures to support growth and employment [1][2][3]. Economic Performance - In Q1, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rates of the previous year and positioning it among the leading global economies [2]. - The meeting acknowledged the need to solidify the foundation for ongoing economic recovery due to heightened external pressures [2]. Policy Tools - The meeting called for the enhancement of the policy toolbox to include both flexibility and unconventional features, aiming to respond effectively to economic fluctuations [2]. - It was noted that the policies should be timely and responsive to changes in the economic landscape, with a focus on stabilizing employment and economic growth [2][3]. Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated the commitment to maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy through structural monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts and the establishment of new financial instruments [4][5]. - Recent data indicated a significant increase in social financing, with March's increment reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, reflecting robust monetary support for economic recovery [4]. Fiscal Policy - The meeting emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds, with a total issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan announced [6]. - The focus will be on expediting fiscal spending and optimizing expenditure structures to ensure the stability of basic public services [6][7]. Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate that fiscal policies may include measures such as increasing the issuance of government bonds and expanding consumer subsidies to stimulate new consumption growth areas [7]. - The meeting highlighted the urgency of addressing local government debts owed to enterprises, indicating a potential allocation of funds to resolve these issues [7].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观月报 宏观 国内再提超常规逆周期调节 美国关税政策高度不确定 2025 年 4 月 27 日 ⚫ 主要结论 中共中央政治局强调，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，再提超常规 逆周期调节。4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和 经济工作。会议指出，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自 己的事，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。宏观政 策基调方面，会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，对宏观政策 的落地提出一定要求；会议再提超常规逆周期调节。财政政策方面，会议强 调，加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。货币政策方面， 会议强调，适时降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性 金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。后期，基础货币投放， 仍需关注国债买卖、买断式逆回购、新的结构性货币政策工具以及新型政策 性金融工具。由于美国关税政策，我国对外贸易相对承压，人民币短期有贬 值压力；但是，中长期来看，人民币仍然不宜过度贬值。从年内在岸美元兑 人民币走势来看，或以宽幅波动为主，区间或为 7.0 至 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy and Market Stability - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic stability and growth [2][9] - The meeting highlighted the importance of a vibrant capital market, which is crucial for corporate financing, wealth growth, and macroeconomic stability [2][10] - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement a range of monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts, to stimulate consumption and investment demand [3][9] Group 2: Economic Performance and Challenges - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 was reported at 5.4% year-on-year, with a nominal growth rate of 4.6%, indicating a solid foundation for stable economic growth [4] - Despite external challenges, China's export performance remained robust in Q1 2025, with the impact of U.S. tariffs not yet significantly affecting trade [4][6] - The CF40 report indicated that while macroeconomic recovery is underway, challenges such as tariff impacts and declining fiscal revenues in Q2 2025 could pose risks [4][6] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The investment landscape is characterized by both opportunities and risks, with the potential for market volatility due to ongoing global trade conflicts [7][10] - The real estate market's recovery is uncertain, with expectations for stabilization in 2024 and gradual improvement in 2025, influenced by policy effectiveness and market confidence [8][10] - The private equity market is showing resilience, but traditional investment strategies may need to adapt to the rapidly changing environment [12] Group 4: Strategic Investment Framework - The N.E.X.T matrix framework is proposed for restructuring investment strategies, focusing on necessary foundational research, evolutionary growth opportunities, cross-sector integration, and transformative societal impacts [13][14] - Key investment areas include life sciences, new materials, artificial intelligence applications, and innovative healthcare solutions, which are expected to drive long-term growth [13][14]