Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market experienced record-high retail and wholesale volumes in September, marking a strong start to the "golden September and silver October" period, which is crucial for the overall annual performance of the automotive market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In September, the retail volume of passenger cars reached 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11% [3]. - The wholesale volume for manufacturers hit 2.803 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.4% and a month-on-month increase of 13% [3]. - Cumulatively, the retail volume for the first nine months of the year reached 17.005 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [3]. Group 2: Brand Structure - Domestic brands remain the main driving force in the market, with retail sales of 1.5 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a month-on-month increase of 12.9% [4]. - The market share of domestic brands reached 66.9%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Major state-owned groups, including SAIC, Dongfeng, Changan, Chery, and BAIC, saw a combined year-on-year sales growth of 25% in September [4]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicles - New energy vehicles (NEVs) led the market, with production reaching 1.501 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 22.9% and a month-on-month increase of 17.5% [6]. - The retail volume of NEVs was 1.296 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.5% and a month-on-month increase of 16.2% [6]. - The penetration rate of NEVs in the domestic market reached 57.8% in September [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The automotive market is experiencing a reduction in "price wars," with only 23 models seeing price cuts in September, down from 34 in the previous year [8]. - The inventory warning index for automotive dealers was 54.5% in September, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a stabilization in inventory levels [9]. - The automotive consumption index for September was 88.9, suggesting that October sales are expected to exceed those of September [11]. Group 5: Upcoming Trends - The market is entering the "silver October" phase, with over 70 new models launched in September, contributing to increased consumer interest [10]. - The upcoming release of the fourth batch of trade-in subsidies is expected to further stimulate demand in October [11].

Core Insights - The Beijing real estate market has shown a significant recovery in September, with new residential sales increasing by 21% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions rose by 19% both month-on-month and year-on-year [1][2] - The supply of new homes in Beijing doubled in September compared to August, with over 3,000 new units entering the market, breaking a two-month supply slump and injecting growth momentum into the traditional sales season [2][3] - High-demand projects, particularly in key areas, have driven market enthusiasm, with notable sales figures reported for several new developments [3][6] Supply Dynamics - The supply surge in September was a key driver for the market, with 26 pre-sale permits issued, including 17 for residential projects, compared to only 12 in August [2][4] - Major new projects such as Zhongjian·Yunhe Jiuyuan and Puyue have entered the market, contributing to the increase in available quality housing [2][3] Sales Performance - Hot projects have been crucial in boosting market activity, with Zhongjian·Yunhe Jiuyuan achieving sales of 573 units worth 4.7 billion yuan on its opening day, and total sales reaching approximately 3.857 billion yuan by mid-October [3][6] - Other projects like Beijing Jianguo·Jiatang Luanxi and Longhu Chenhan also reported strong sales figures, indicating a robust demand for new homes [3][6] Market Outlook - The "Silver October" is expected to continue the positive trend from September, with high-end projects performing well and ongoing demand for improved housing options [5][7] - The introduction of quality land parcels in the fourth quarter is anticipated to further support the market, as developers are expected to launch new projects [7][8]

Core Insights - The Beijing real estate market has shown a significant recovery in September, with new residential sales increasing by 21% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions rose by 19% both month-on-month and year-on-year [1][2] - The supply of new homes in Beijing doubled in September compared to August, with over 3,000 new units entering the market, marking a turnaround from previous months of low supply [2][3] - High-demand projects, particularly in key areas, have driven market activity, with notable sales figures reported for several new developments [3][6] Supply Dynamics - The supply surge in September was a key driver for the market, with 26 pre-sale permits issued, including 17 for residential projects, compared to only 12 in August [2][4] - Major new projects such as Zhongjian Yunhe Jiuyuan and Puyue have entered the market, contributing to the increased supply and market enthusiasm [2][3] Sales Performance - Hot projects have significantly boosted sales, with Zhongjian Yunhe Jiuyuan achieving sales of 573 units worth 4.7 billion yuan on its opening day, and total sales reaching approximately 3.857 billion yuan by mid-October [3][6] - Other projects like Beijing Jianguo Jiatang Yuxi and Longhu Chenhan also reported strong sales figures, indicating a robust demand for new homes [3][6] Market Outlook - The "Silver October" is expected to continue the positive trend from September, with high-end projects performing well and ongoing demand for improved housing options [5][7] - The introduction of quality land parcels in the fourth quarter is anticipated to further support the market, with industry experts predicting an increase in new home sales [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern next week. Supply from primary and secondary lead is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, providing price support. Demand, although generally average, will not decline sharply due to the "Golden September and Silver October" season and the growing demand from the emerging energy - storage sector. The decline in inventory also offers some price support. It is recommended to buy on dips for lead prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,095 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,014.5 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars [2]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the open interest of Shanghai lead was 82,733 lots, up 5,004 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 4,383 lots, down 1,402 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 29,569 tons, down 499 tons [2]. - The SHFE inventory was 39,916 tons (weekly), down 1,978 tons; the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons (daily), down 450 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,925 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,130 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 170 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was 75.2 dollars/ton, up 104.84 dollars [2]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,471 yuan, up 43 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) was 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average开工率 of primary lead was 83.56% (weekly), up 1.46 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.73 tons, up 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 dollars/thousand tons, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 0.5 thousand tons (monthly), up 1.3 thousand tons [2]. - The global lead mine output of ILZSG was 395.9 thousand tons (monthly), up 15.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 13.48 tons (monthly), up 1.27 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined lead import volume was 1,820.55 tons (monthly), down 1,596.29 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,752.22 tons (monthly), up 957.7 tons [2]. - The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 380 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,991.07 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The export volume of batteries was 49,680 thousand units (monthly), up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,850 yuan/ton (daily), down 50 yuan [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 2,133.66 points (daily), down 99.61 points; the monthly automobile output was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.24 million vehicles [2]. - The monthly output of new - energy vehicles was 133.3 million vehicles, up 15.7 million vehicles [2]. 3.6行业消息 - The US government plans to lay off more than 4,000 people, and the lay - offs will "mainly target Democrats". The US military may face unpaid leave due to the government shutdown [2]. - Trump's list of candidates for the Fed chair has been narrowed down to five [2]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report on October 24 at 8:30 am (8:30 pm Beijing time) [2]. - In the Gaza situation, Hamas will fight back if Israel resumes military action, and a Hamas official said the faction is ready to give up the governance of the Gaza Strip. The Sharm El - Sheikh Peace Summit will be held on the 13th, and neither Hamas nor Israeli representatives will attend [2]. - Trump will visit Cairo and Jerusalem to celebrate the cease - fire and hostage - release agreement [2].

Core Insights - The Guangzhou real estate market experienced a significant surge during the National Day holiday, with a notable increase in both visits and purchases of new homes, driven by favorable policies and aggressive promotions from developers [1][3][4]. Policy Impact - New policies introduced before the holiday, such as the uncoupling of housing provident fund withdrawals from loan limits and simplified purchasing processes for residents from Hong Kong and Macau, effectively lowered the barriers for homebuyers [3][4]. - Specific regional measures, like additional subsidies and streamlined processes, further stimulated demand, particularly in districts like Huangpu, Nansha, and Huadu, which accounted for a substantial portion of the city's total purchases [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The promotional activities led by real estate developers, including significant discounts and incentives, played a crucial role in driving sales during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [4][6]. - Despite the vibrant new home market, the second-hand housing market remained relatively quiet, with stable transaction volumes reflecting a shift in buyer sentiment towards new properties due to better pricing and promotional offers [5][6]. Sales Performance - During the holiday, the number of visits to new residential projects reached 42,700, a 325% increase from the previous week, with 2,004 units sold, marking a 394% rise [1][3]. - Major developers reported impressive sales figures, with some achieving over 700 units sold during the holiday period, indicating strong market activity [4][6]. Market Trends - The data showed a 28.7% year-on-year increase in the area of new residential contracts signed, although the growth in net signed contracts was more moderate, indicating some uncertainty in the finalization of sales [7]. - The overall trend suggests that the Guangzhou real estate market is stabilizing and moving towards a more refined state, characterized by differentiated regional and product demand [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a state of shock consolidation, with the price center moving down and showing weak operation [1][3]. - The view on aluminum ingots is that the price is expected to undergo short - term shock adjustment, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mining - end news. In the short term, it is expected to maintain high - level shock, and then pay attention to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are mostly from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3]. - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum Ingots - In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. In October, the overall performance of the aluminum processing industry was in line with seasonal characteristics but showed obvious internal differentiation [3]. - The aluminum cable and wire production rate declined, but the orders from the power grid and photovoltaic sectors were still strong. The aluminum profile production rate decreased slightly, with the new orders for construction profiles being weak. The aluminum plate and strip production rate decreased to 68.0%, and the aluminum foil production rate decreased slightly [3]. - On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last Thursday and 58,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mining end, and the release of consumption [4].

Core Insights - The real estate market in major cities of China has shown increased activity in September, driven by a series of supportive policies and the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1][2] - Key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have experienced a rise in both new and second-hand housing transactions, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [1][2] Market Performance - In September, Beijing saw new residential sales of 460,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 21% and a year-on-year increase of 22%. Second-hand home transactions reached 16,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 19% and a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - Shanghai's new residential sales totaled 970,000 square meters in September, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of 16%. Second-hand home transactions were 20,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 29% [1] - Shenzhen's second-hand home market showed significant growth, with 5,808 units sold in September, marking a month-on-month increase of 10.3% and a year-on-year increase of 52.4%. This marks the seventh consecutive month of exceeding the industry "boom-bust line" [1] - In addition to first-tier cities, many second-tier cities also displayed active markets, with 108,617 second-hand residential transactions in 14 monitored cities, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 13.12%, achieving the highest monthly transaction volume since 2022 [1] Market Trends - The second-hand housing transaction volume in several cities, including Zhengzhou, Chengdu, and Wuxi, has returned to positive growth year-on-year as of September [2] - The average de-stocking period for second-hand homes in key cities was 17.7 months in September, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, indicating a significant improvement from last year's peak and a reduction in market pressure [2] - Analysts suggest that the positive market response to new policies has restored buyer confidence, particularly in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, leading to increased market activity [2] - The implementation of "regionally tiered relaxation" of purchase restrictions and enhanced credit support has lowered the barriers for second-hand home purchases, stimulating demand and facilitating transactions [2] - Overall, the transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes in major cities have shown varying degrees of recovery, with expectations for continued stabilization in the fourth quarter [2]

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：宏观扰动加剧，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性偏弱 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 保太ADC12-A00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Special report ...

Core Insights - The automotive market in September 2023 witnessed an unusual surge in new car launches, with major brands releasing significant models simultaneously, indicating a strategic push by manufacturers to capitalize on market opportunities [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The impending expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy at the end of the year has created a sense of urgency among consumers, prompting many to finalize their purchases before the benefits diminish [3][6] - Historical patterns show that the end of such tax exemptions often leads to a spike in vehicle deliveries, as seen in late 2022, reinforcing the notion that policy deadlines drive sales surges [3][4] - The traditional peak sales periods, known as "Golden September and Silver October," continue to influence consumer behavior, with the overlap of major holidays further enhancing purchasing intent [8][10] Group 2: Strategic Timing - September serves as a critical month for automakers, marking the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4, where achieving annual sales targets becomes paramount [11][13] - The concentrated launch of new models in September allows for a three-month sales window leading into Q4, which is essential for meeting year-end performance goals [13][15] - The competitive landscape necessitates that automakers innovate and differentiate their offerings, as the market becomes saturated with new releases, making it crucial to establish a unique brand narrative [15] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The rapid pace of new car launches places significant demands on supply chains and production capabilities, requiring manufacturers to ensure timely delivery and inventory management [15] - The pressure to maintain distinct product offerings amidst a crowded market leads to increased marketing costs, as brands strive to capture consumer attention in a noisy environment [15] - The urgency created by the tax exemption deadline may lead consumers to make hasty decisions, highlighting the need for companies to provide clear and compelling value propositions [15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance and trends in the Chinese real estate market for the first nine months of 2025, highlighting sales figures, land transactions, and brand influence among top real estate companies [5][6][7]. Sales Performance - In September 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 252.78 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 22.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [7]. - The cumulative transaction volume in 30 cities for the first nine months was 883,300 square meters, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 3% [7]. Market Concentration - The concentration of new sales value among the top 100 real estate companies remains high, with the top 10 companies accounting for 68% of the total new sales value, and the top 3 companies contributing 12% [5]. Brand Influence - In September, the real estate market experienced a promotional season characterized by significant discounts and customer engagement activities, coinciding with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [6]. Land Transactions - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou accounted for 40% of land transactions, indicating a trend of "quantity decline and quality increase" in supply, which may maintain sales momentum but limit overall transaction scale [9]. - The land transaction volume showed a cyclical rebound in September, with a monitored supply of 6.95 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 89%, while the transaction area was 648,000 square meters, reflecting a 7% decrease [15]. Future Outlook - The new housing subscription during the October holiday saw a decline of over 30% compared to the previous month, suggesting that the overall transaction volume may continue to fluctuate at low levels in October [11]. - The upcoming land auctions in October are set to offer 112 plots across 23 key cities, with a total starting price of 67.2 billion yuan, indicating ongoing interest in land acquisition despite market challenges [16].