甲醇期现货及其下游价格走势 | | 周总结 | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/15 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | MA2601 | 2405 | 2412 | - 7 | -0.29% | 元/吨 | | | 基差 | -110 | -87 | -23 | -26.44% | 元/吨 | | 价格 | 甲醇（太仓） | 2359.6 | 2378.2 | -18.60 | -0.78% | 元/吨 | | | 甲醇CFR | 260.33 | 267 | -6.67 | -2.50% | 美元/吨 | | 下游 | 甲醛（山东） | 1050 | 1052 | -2.00 | -0.19% | 元/吨 | | | 冰醋酸（江苏） | 2190 | 2202 | -12.00 | -0.54% | 元/吨 | | | 二甲醚（河南） | 3400 | 3400 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | | MTBE（山东） | 5010 | 5056 | -46.00 | -0.91% ...

晨报 铝锭 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，供应方面变化不大，电解铝运行产量稳中小增。需求方 面，"金九银十"旺季临近，但目前在淡季影响下，终端到加工 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined, showing pressure at the 15,000 level. The tight supply of imported nickel has been alleviated to some extent. The medium - and long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The price of nickel is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average for the 2510 contract [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. The cost line has risen slightly, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average for the 2510 contract [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **Price Overview** - **Nickel**: On August 21, the price of SHFE nickel main contract was 119,830 yuan, down 230 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel was 14,940, down 105. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 yuan, up 200 yuan [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: On August 21, the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,795 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in major regions remained unchanged [12]. **Inventory** - **Nickel**: As of August 21, LME nickel inventory was 209,598, an increase of 252; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22,588, an increase of 29. The total inventory increased by 281 [15]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of August 15, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons from the previous period. On August 21, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 118,640, a decrease of 1,129 [19][20]. **Cost** - **Nickel Ore and Ferronickel**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF remained stable on August 21. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 929 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,896 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,584 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,513 yuan [25]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption expectation and anti - involution policies [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices rose overnight, with Brent's October contract up 1.65%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly dropped by 6.014 million barrels due to increased exports and decreased imports. The negotiation of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement has stalled again, and the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing needs to be revised. It is recommended to continue holding the long strangle strategy of out-of-the-money options for hedging and then enter medium-term short positions after the volatility increases [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil shipped from the Middle East to Asia has been increasing continuously. The heavy residue fuel oil inventory in Fujairah has decreased. In August, the total arrival volume increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June despite the decline in Russia's shipment volume. The expectation of increased supply of heavy resources from the Middle East still exerts relative pressure on the market [20]. - After the US resumed importing oil from Venezuela, the diversion effect on North Asian resources is expected to gradually emerge. Sinopec's cumulative asphalt production has shown an expanding year-on-year decline due to the increase in deep processing load. As the "Golden September and Silver October" construction peak season approaches, road demand is expected to pick up. The spot price of asphalt is supported by the low year-on-year basis in South China and the center of the spot price in Shandong has moved down. The unilateral price of BU follows the fluctuation of SC but with a smaller amplitude, and the low inventory still supports the price. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the October contract expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - The overseas market of liquefied petroleum gas has recently stabilized. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia supported by strong chemical profits provides support. In China, the arrival volume of imports and the release of refineries have increased, and domestic gas is still under pressure. After the decline of naphtha driven by the fall of crude oil, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. Under the expectation of a subsequent decline in chemical gross profit, the sustainability of the current high operating rate should be concerned. The market is waiting for the realization of bearish expectations. With a high level of warehouse receipts, the top pressure is relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded overnight. The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that officials generally supported keeping interest rates unchanged, believing that interest rates are not far from the neutral level. Recent progress in Russia-Ukraine related talks has led to insufficient driving force for the continuous upward movement of gold. Precious metals will continue to fluctuate, and investors should patiently wait for the callback to find a layout position [2]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper rebounded overnight after a period of oscillating decline, closing slightly below the MA60 moving average. The content of the Fed's minutes basically met market expectations, and most members were still more concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation. The price of domestic spot copper was reported at 78,770 yuan yesterday. The spread between refined and scrap copper has shrunk to within 1,000 yuan, the operating rate of the scrap copper recycling industry is low, and refined copper consumption has replaced scrap copper. The copper market is still cautiously evaluating the risk of economic growth, and short positions above 79,000 yuan for SHFE copper should be held [3]. - SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate overnight. The downstream operating rate has stabilized, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off-season may be approaching. The inventory is likely to remain at a relatively low level this year. SHFE aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term [4]. - Cast aluminum alloy oscillates following SHFE aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remains at 19,900 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. It has certain resilience relative to the aluminum price, and the cross-variety spread between the spot and AL may gradually narrow [5]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both the industry inventory and the SHFE warehouse receipts have been continuously increasing. The supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the spot indexes in various regions are declining. Alumina is oscillating weakly, and the 3,000 yuan integer mark provides support [6]. - Constrained by overseas smelting capacity, a large amount of imported ore has flowed into China. After the profit of domestic smelters has been repaired, their enthusiasm for increasing production is relatively high. SHFE zinc is generally regarded as facing pressure on the upside during the rebound. The demand continues to show off-season characteristics, but the sharp decline in zinc prices in the short term has led to an improvement in downstream purchasing on dips. Coupled with the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the market still has certain expectations for policy. SHFE zinc has stopped falling for the time being and is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rebounds should be maintained [7]. - Due to the constraints on overseas smelting capacity, a large amount of imported ore has flowed into China. After the profit of domestic smelters has been repaired, their enthusiasm for increasing production is relatively high. SHFE zinc is generally expected to face pressure during the rebound. The demand continues to show off-season characteristics, but the sharp decline in zinc prices in the short term has led to an improvement in downstream purchasing on dips. Coupled with the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the market still has certain expectations for policies. SHFE zinc has stopped falling for the time being and is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [7]. - The loss of recycled lead has deepened, and there are more enterprises reducing or suspending production. The SMM refined-scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and the cost side provides support for the lead price. Whether the weak consumption can form a bottom-up negative feedback to force the upstream raw material prices down is the key to the decline of the lead price. Given the different tax policies in various regions and the still existing difficulty in cross-provincial transportation of scrap batteries, the price of scrap batteries remains resilient. The downside space of SHFE lead is limited, and it is expected to oscillate. As the start of the school season approaches, it is advisable to hold long positions with a stop-loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - SHFE nickel is in the middle to late stage of the rebound, and investors are advised to actively enter short positions. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for six consecutive weeks. However, the downstream end-users' acceptance of high-priced stainless steel products remains poor. In addition, the production schedule of stainless steel in August is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. There is still some uncertainty in the market. In terms of spot, the premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,200 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 125 yuan. The price support from the upstream has slightly rebounded recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel-iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 20,000 tons to 934,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Attention should be paid to the signs of the end of de-stocking [9]. - The tin price oscillated overnight. The inventory of LME tin for concentrated delivery has increased slightly, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium has converged to $32. The market divergence in the tin market has increased. On the one hand, the fundamentals are relatively strong. In July, the physical import volume of domestic tin concentrates decreased again, the customs clearance of Burmese tin ore was at a low level, and the domestic tin raw materials were in short supply, and the overseas inventory was low. On the other hand, most base metal varieties are sensitive to long-term demand concerns. Short-term long positions should be held with reference to the MA60 moving average [10]. Group 4: Chemicals - The polycrystalline silicon futures closed slightly lower. The photovoltaic meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has triggered emotional fluctuations. The "market-oriented" clearance orientation has adjusted the expectations of the capacity policy, but it has reiterated that "selling below cost price" is not allowed, so the downside space of the price is limited. The previous rebound high of 53,000 yuan/ton has become a resistance level, and the valuation support at the bottom of the market is about 48,000 yuan/ton. In summary, the market is still in an oscillating adjustment phase where "policy logic prevails over fundamental logic" [12]. - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The photovoltaic meeting has reiterated the resistance to low-price competition, and the expectation of policy support still exists. The supply and demand in the fundamentals have both increased, but the improvement is limited. The price in Xinjiang has dropped by another 200 yuan/ton to 8,850 yuan/ton (SMM). The market is expected to continue to oscillate. If the policy expectations decline in the future, there will be a certain risk of correction [13]. - The urea market is affected by the news of the third batch of quotas and the relaxation of export country restrictions. The agricultural demand is in the off-season, and the production of compound fertilizers for autumn is mainly focused on high-phosphorus fertilizers, which generally has a limited boost to the urea market. The production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. There are both potential exports and goods gathering at ports, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The short-term supply and demand of urea are loose, and the market is greatly affected by emotions and export news [23]. - The methanol inventory at ports has been continuously accumulating. The import arrival volume has slightly decreased, the operating rate of MTO plants in the East China coastal area has been continuously low, and there are no plans for复产 in the short term. The port inventory may break through the historical high at the end of the third quarter. The operating load of methanol plants has slightly increased, and the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement. The inventory of production enterprises has increased. The inland market is relatively stronger than the port market. The short-term supply and demand weakness in the coastal area will continue. Attention should be paid to the situation of overseas plants and market emotions [24]. - The price of straight-run benzene fluctuated significantly yesterday due to news stimulation and closed with a negative line at night. Recently, the inventory at the pure benzene port has slightly decreased, the import pressure has been relieved, and there is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply and demand in the third quarter due to domestic maintenance and increased downstream demand. The supply and demand may face pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct band trading on the monthly spread [25]. - The moving average system of the main contract of styrene futures is intertwined, and the market continues to consolidate. Fundamentally, the cost side provides bottom support for styrene, but there is a lack of unilateral driving force. The plants are operating stably, and the market supply is sufficient. The production of downstream three-S products is expected to continue to increase slightly, and they maintain purchasing on dips, but the boost is limited [26]. - The supply of propylene is relatively abundant, but the downstream follow-up is insufficient. The differentiation of enterprise shipments has intensified, and the offers are mainly slightly discounted. High-end transactions are relatively limited. The supply pressure of polyethylene still exists, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory and are cautious about price increases. The demand side is slowly following up, providing limited support to the market. The supply side of polypropylene still has support. Although there are new plants about to be put into operation, their short-term impact on the market is limited. The recovery of downstream demand is slow, and the lack of terminal orders has led to the downstream enterprises maintaining low raw material inventory. The peak-season stocking has not yet started, and the market trading atmosphere is light [27]. - PVC is operating weakly. India has issued a final anti-dumping duty ruling on imported PVC, with a significant increase for mainland China, increasing the export pressure. Although there are more maintenance activities, the overall supply remains at a high level. The overall demand is still insufficient, and the social inventory has been continuously increasing since July. The profit of the chlor-alkali integration is fair, and the cost support is not obvious. With poor demand and high production, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is operating strongly. The non-aluminum downstream in Shandong is taking delivery well, and the purchasing enthusiasm is high. The inventory continues to decrease. A factory in Shandong has started production, and the operating load has increased. The demand from the alumina industry provides fair support. The recent restocking sentiment of the non-aluminum downstream has increased. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of restocking. Supported by short-term restocking demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly. In the long term, the supply pressure remains, and the expected increase in price is limited [28]. - The PX and PTA markets were relatively strong yesterday due to news influence and closed with doji lines at night. The short-term market supply is stable, and there are signs of improvement in the weaving industry, with an expected increase in demand. The supply and demand of PX are expected to improve in the third quarter, and the improvement in valuation will be an important upward driving force for the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the direction of oil prices and the rhythm of demand recovery [29]. - The profit of the ethylene glycol industry is poor. If the industry resolves the problem of petrochemical overcapacity through maintenance in the future, there is a large space for the recovery of the profit of petroleum-based ethylene glycol. However, the impact of news is short-term. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of policies. Recently, the port inventory has been accumulating, the industry operating rate has increased, and there are signs of improvement in demand. The ethylene glycol market is facing both long and short factors. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the policies and the rhythm of the increase in peak-season demand [30]. - The supply and demand of short fibers are stable, and the market is mainly driven by cost. The new production capacity of short fibers this year is limited, and the increase in peak-season demand will boost the industry's expectations. In the medium term, a long position is recommended, and a positive spread trading strategy on the monthly spread can be considered. The processing margin of bottle chips is oscillating at a low level. Overcapacity is a long-term pressure, which will limit the recovery space of the processing margin of bottle chips. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies in the petrochemical industry [31]. Group 5: Building Materials - The glass market continues to decline. The weak reality persists, and the spot price continues to decline and inventory accumulates. Due to the military parade in September, the processing operations in the Shahe area have been affected. Recently, the production capacity has not fluctuated much, and the daily melting volume remains at a relatively high level of 159,600 tons. The processing orders have improved month-on-month but are still weak year-on-year. Although the market is trading on the weak reality, the cost has increased, and it is expected that the price will not break through the previous low [32]. - The soda ash market has fallen sharply. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory at the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the industrial chain is all high. The weak reality pattern persists. Yuanxing has future production plans, and the supply shows an increasing trend. The fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry have recently improved, the price has rebounded, and some blocked kilns have been reopened, leading to a slight increase in the rigid demand for heavy soda ash. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply of soda ash remains unchanged, and the futures price is under pressure at high levels [34]. Group 6: Agricultural Products - The latest good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and it is still at a historically high level for the same period. In the next two weeks, the temperature in the main US soybean-producing areas will be generally normal, but the lack of rain will gradually become more serious, posing challenges to the growth of new-season crops. In China, the spot price of soybean meal has increased significantly recently, and the market is continuously concerned about the supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter. Currently, the sales progress of Brazilian soybeans has exceeded 80%, and the premium is high. Given the unclear situation of Sino-US trade, there are still uncertainties in the far-month supply. The oil mill crushing rate in China is stable, and the inventory reduction of soybean meal is limited. Currently, positive factors are gradually emerging. After the Sino-US-Swedish talks, although the mutual addition of tariffs has been postponed, the tariff issue still exists. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish, and investors should wait for the callback to enter the market [35]. - The US crop inspection shows that the number of soybean pods in Nebraska has increased year-on-year, reaching the highest level since 2003. The number of soybean pods in Indiana has slightly decreased year-on-year but is still higher than the average of the past three years. The American Soybean Association issued a statement this week strongly urging the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market, which is crucial for US soybeans. The market expects that the US Environmental Protection Agency will soon make a key decision on the biofuel exemption for refineries. The Trump administration granted exemptions to small refineries in the previous term, and the market is worried that the exemptions will occur again, which has suppressed the price of US soybean oil. The domestic soybean and palm oil markets showed a pattern of reducing positions and correcting. In the short term, attention should be paid to the movement of funds and the guidance of relevant policies. In the medium term, overseas palm oil is in a production reduction cycle. In the long term, the long-term development trends of biodiesel in the US and Indonesia still exist. It is advisable to consider buying soybean and palm oil on dips, but pay attention to the risk of large price fluctuations after reaching high levels [36]. - The overseas rapeseed market fluctuated little overnight. As new-season crops will be listed one after another and there are few variables

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene has marginally improved, but there are still contradictions between high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption. The demand during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" remains a key variable [3]. - The styrene market is generally loose, with new production capacity being continuously released. Although there are signs of marginal improvement, new production capacity and the weakening basis point to the problems of oversupply and difficulty in destocking [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Price**: On August 20, the styrene main contract closed up 0.82% at 7,285 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 10 (+54 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.37% at 6,205 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On August 20, Brent crude oil closed at 61.8 (-1.7 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at 65.8 (-0.8 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,070 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.9 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.3% month - on - month destocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.42% month - on - month destocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 tons (-1.7 tons), a 10.43% month - on - month destocking [2]. - **Supply**: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly styrene output was 36.9 tons (+1.0 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.1% (+14.4%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 71.1% (+0%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 56.7% (+1.7%). The EPS operating rate recovered, and the ABS and PS operating rates continued to increase [2]. 3.1.2 Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply side has been running strongly recently. The supply has increased, and the demand shows structural differentiation. Although the supply - demand balance has marginally improved, there are still problems such as high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption [3]. - **Styrene**: The market is generally loose, with new production capacity continuously released. The demand improvement is limited, and the basis weakening reflects the intensification of supply - demand mismatch and weakening market sentiment [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices**: The styrene futures main contract increased by 0.82%, the pure benzene futures main contract increased by 0.37%, and the styrene basis decreased by 118.52% [6]. - **Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory**: Styrene output increased by 2.76%, pure benzene output decreased by 0.18%. Styrene and pure benzene inventories decreased to varying degrees [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene increased, such as the EPS capacity utilization rate increased by 14.41% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and production capacity, pushing up naphtha costs. China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record high in 2025 [9]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, having a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [9]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the pure benzene and styrene industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: Last week, the operating load of pure benzene increased, with no new maintenance capacity and the restart of multiple maintenance devices, leading to a continuous increase in overall supply. With maintenance mostly completed, supply is expected to remain stable in September, still at a relatively high level. In terms of imports, South Korea's exports to China in the first ten days of August decreased significantly month-on-month, and China's imports in August are expected to decline substantially. Downstream demand is at a relatively high level for the same period, but overall downstream profits have declined significantly. In the short term, supply and demand for pure benzene are expected to be strong, but in the long run, poor downstream profits may lead to weakening demand. Particular attention should be paid to the stability of styrene demand. Port inventory of pure benzene has increased, and subsequent destocking is expected, with an upward driving force. In terms of valuation, the BZN spread is neutral, and the valuation is also relatively neutral [3] - Styrene: Last week, Fushun Petrochemical carried out maintenance on its styrene unit. Supply is expected to be high in August but may tighten in September due to an increase in maintenance. In terms of demand, multiple PS units increased their loads, and EPS had good sales at low prices, alleviating some inventory pressure. Overall, the comprehensive operating rate of the three downstream S products has rebounded, but current demand remains weak, mainly driven by rigid needs, and raw material inventories are high. In terms of terminal inventory, port inventory remained stable last week, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory in August, with a downward driving force. In terms of valuation, the BZ - SM spread has declined significantly, and the styrene valuation is neutral [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - There are no new maintenance plans for pure benzene units, and the current operating rate is at a high level. Supply is expected to continue increasing [3] - Last week, there were no new maintenance devices for pure benzene, and supply is expected to increase. The maintenance of hydrogenated benzene is basically over, and supply is expected to remain at a high level [7][10] - After the peak of pure benzene maintenance has passed, with the commissioning of new devices, supply in August is expected to increase month-on-month [47] Pure Benzene Demand - Downstream overall operating rates are high and are expected to remain stable in the short term. However, downstream profit margins are poor, limiting demand potential. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period approaches, the situation of end - users should be observed [3] Pure Benzene Month - Spread - Pure benzene is expected to undergo destocking, and the paper futures month - spread structure is close to flat [3] Styrene Supply - Current supply is high, but may contract in September due to an increase in maintenance [3] - Last week, the styrene operating rate increased. Although Fushun Petrochemical's unit was under maintenance, overall supply remains high. Maintenance will increase in September, and supply may tighten [52] - With the commissioning of new devices, styrene supply is expected to continue to rise [87] Styrene Demand - The operating rate of the three downstream S products remains stable but is weak. Overall downstream profits are good, and demand is expected to remain stable [3] - Currently, the three S products are in the off - season. Overall demand shows some resilience, but inventories of the three S products are high, and subsequent demand may weaken. Attention should be paid to the destocking situation of the three S products during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [87] Styrene Month - Spread - Given the pattern of strong supply and weak demand combined with improved long - term expectations, the C structure is expected to be maintained [3] External Market Support - The arbitrage window between the US and Asia remains closed. In the first ten days of August, China imported 38,725 tons of pure benzene from South Korea, a significant month - on - month decrease and lower than the same period last year [3]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：海外降息预期摇摆 铝价区间运行 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏弱调整。宏观上美联储会议记录显示，在上月美联储 决定维持利率不变的决策中，虽然有两位政策制定者表示反 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded after a decline, with significant pressure from the 20 - day moving average. The supply shortage of imported nickel has been alleviated to some extent. The cost line has slightly increased, and stainless - steel inventory continues to decline. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is stable, and the shipping cost is firm. The nickel iron price has increased steadily, and the cost line has risen slightly. The stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The 2510 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - **镍**: On August 20, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,060 yuan, down 390 yuan from the previous day; the LME nickel price was 15,045 yuan, down 15 yuan. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,900 yuan, down 750 yuan [11]. - **不锈钢**: On August 20, the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in major regions remained unchanged [11]. 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of August 20, the LME nickel inventory was 209,346 tons, an increase of 18 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipt was 22,559 tons, a decrease of 282 tons [14]. - **不锈钢**: As of August 20, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt was 119,769 tons, a decrease of 2,334 tons. As of August 15, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons month - on - month [18][19]. 3.3 Raw Material Prices - **镍 ore**: On August 20, the price of red - clay nickel ore with a Ni1.5% grade was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - clay nickel ore with a Ni0.9% grade was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [22]. - **镍 iron**: On August 20, the price of high - nickel iron was 928.5 yuan per nickel point, an increase of 0.5 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron was 3,420 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [22]. 3.4 Production Costs - **不锈钢**: The traditional production cost was 12,896 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,584 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,510 yuan [24]. 3.5 Import Costs - **镍**: The imported price was converted to 121,436 yuan per ton [28]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: The expected consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period and the anti - involution policy [7]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged; the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货低开震荡，下午受宏观消息提振，盘面快速上行，日内现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差走强，少量 聚酯工厂补货。8月货在09贴水5~0附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4660~4720附近。9月上在09+10有成交，9月中09+15附近有成 交，9月中下在09+20有成交。8月仓单在09贴水10~12有成交。今日主流现货基差在09-2。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：近期加工差维持低位，部分PTA装置检修，加之聚酯负荷回升，8月PTA暂无累库压力，价格上，油价承压运行，成本 端缺乏支撑，预计短 ...

能源化工日报 2025-08-21 原油 能源化工组 2025/08/21 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.63 美元，涨幅 1.01%，报 63.14 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 1.09 美元，涨幅 1.65%，报 67.04 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.00 元，跌幅 0.21%， 报 475.9 元。 数据方面：美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 6.01 百万桶至 420.68 百万桶， 环比去库 1.41%；SPR 补库 0.22 百万桶至 403.43 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存去库 2.72 百万桶至 223.57 百万桶，环比去库 1.20%；柴油库存累库 2.34 百万桶至 116.03 百万桶，环 比累库 2.06%；燃料油库存累库 0.08 百万桶至 19.81 百万桶，环比累库 0.39%；航空煤油库 存去库 0.45 百万桶至 43.30 百万桶，环比去库 1.02%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地 ...