Group 1 - The overall lead price has shown a trend of rising and then falling this year, primarily due to the seasonal transition between peak and off-peak demand periods [2] - Strong downstream demand during the lead-acid battery replacement peak season around the Spring Festival has supported lead prices, alongside fluctuating US tariff policies and environmental production restrictions [2] - After April, macroeconomic factors, including unexpected US tariff policies, have dampened market confidence, leading to a decline in lead prices as downstream demand enters the off-peak season [2] Group 2 - The recent downtrend in the US dollar is beneficial for the non-ferrous metal sector, as historical data indicates that metal prices tend to rise during dollar down cycles [3] - The current US government's policies, including repeated tariff changes and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, are increasing economic uncertainty and reducing international confidence in the dollar [3] Group 3 - Limited production capacity for primary lead is expected due to reduced overseas mining output from various mines affected by weather and operational delays [4][6] - Domestic lead concentrate production has increased significantly due to high profit margins, but the overall supply may not meet smelting demands in the medium term [6] Group 4 - The supply of recycled lead is expected to recover as seasonal demand for waste batteries increases, although supply shortages may persist due to seasonal fluctuations [7][9] - The production of recycled lead may face limitations from raw material supply constraints and environmental production restrictions, leading to a potential decrease in supply in the medium term [9] Group 5 - Demand for lead is expected to return seasonally, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old batteries, which have positively impacted sales in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors [11] - Despite a potential decline in exports due to domestic raw material supply limitations, domestic demand for lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain strong [11] Group 6 - In the medium to long term, the balance of supply and demand for lead ingots is expected to tighten, which may support an upward trend in lead prices, aided by the opening of import channels to alleviate domestic supply constraints [14]

铅周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 消费预期较好 铅价震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价延续强势。宏观面看，特朗普关税 谈判取得一定进展，同时大美丽法案通过，国内 6 月 PMI 数据环比回升，市场情绪偏好，美元延续弱势， 利多铅价。 要点 基本面看，原料端的供需缺口未有改善，内外铅精矿 加工费维持低位，尤其是进口矿，负加工费问题突出， 且随着炼厂 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead will continue to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories will increase slightly, while overseas inventories will accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Given the weakening overseas economic situation, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,245 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,063.5 dollars/ton, up 24.5 dollars. The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead was 87,707 lots, up 3,906 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 60 lots, down 179 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 46,439 tons, up 50 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 51,929 tons, up 638 tons; the LME lead inventory was 268,150 tons, down 1,925 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 17,000 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,260 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 245 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 26.77 dollars/ton, up 5.68 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 76.79%, up 2.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.58 tons, up 0.01 tons. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,296 yuan, down 7 yuan. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 40 dollars/ton, unchanged. The global lead ore output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2] 4. Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,151.79 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries (with 2% antimony) was 20,525 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,755.04 points, down 21.88 points. The monthly automobile output was 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2] 6. Industry News - In June in the US, the ADP employment decreased by 33,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023; the number of Challenger corporate layoffs was 47,999 people, the lowest since December 2024. Interest - rate futures almost fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, might resign, causing the pound and UK bonds to fall [2] 7. View Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters increased their operating rates and production due to rising lead prices. The slight recovery of lead prices reduced the loss pressure of secondary lead, but the price of waste batteries remained flat. In the traditional off - season of the second quarter, the demand for battery replacement decreased, and it was difficult to increase the production of secondary lead. On the demand side, the market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory declined again, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while warehouse receipts increased. The processing fee of lead concentrate started to decline, which would have a negative impact on the subsequent production of secondary and primary lead [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - After expected adjustments, the supply - demand contradiction this year is relatively reduced, and the import volume may decline, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in the second half of the year, with the reference operating range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Based on the expectation of strong supply and demand, it is recommended to focus on unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures. The monthly spread structure may change from C to B, and it is advisable to pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities. There is also an expectation of intermittent opening of the import window, and an interval - trading approach is recommended [4][123] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the price centers of Shanghai and London lead futures were significantly lower than the same period in 2024. In Q1, Shanghai lead showed an inverted V - shaped trend due to supply - demand mismatch around the Spring Festival. In Q2, it dropped sharply due to the US tariff increase, then rebounded as the US dollar weakened and overseas structural risks emerged, along with the anticipation of peak - season demand stocking [15] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut path is the core variable, affected by trade protection and geopolitical conflicts. A potential rate cut in Q3 may briefly boost London lead, but the rebound is limited by demand. Trade protection may suppress China's lead export demand. Geopolitical risks may increase external - market volatility. Domestically, policy - driven consumption is crucial for lead demand. Although previous consumption - promotion policies had limited effects, future demand may rely more on policy support. Macroeconomic impacts are reflected in the internal - external price ratio [18][19] 3.3 Primary End 3.3.1 Lead Concentrate - Overseas, Q1 2025 lead - concentrate production was lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline of 1.4 million tons and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 3 million tons. The decline was due to factors like lower ore grades, weather disturbances, and mining difficulties. Although there are expectations of increased production from some mines this year, the overall increment is limited, and there are still risks of disturbances in H2. Domestically, lead - concentrate production increased in H1 2025, and imports were high. The annual production is expected to increase by 5 million tons, and the import growth rate is expected to be around 9%. However, the processing fee (TC) may decline in H2 due to tight overseas supply and trade - flow risks [23][33][34] 3.3.2 Primary Lead - Overseas, from January to April 2025, primary - lead production showed a recovery trend, mainly due to the low base in H1 2024. This year, new primary - smelting capacity is limited, and lead concentrate will mainly be consumed through imports. Domestically, from January to June, primary - lead production increased by 9.7% year - on - year. In H2, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new capacities. The annual production growth rate is expected to be around 2% [50][54][55] 3.4 Secondary End - In 2025, the over - capacity of waste - battery processing has intensified, and new capacities are squeezing traditional ones. Recycling merchants have increased their hoarding and advanced the hoarding time. From January to June, secondary - lead production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In H2, although there is an expectation of improved replacement demand, waste batteries will remain in short supply, and secondary - smelter profits will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of capacity reduction [62][63][68] 3.5 Demand End 3.5.1 Lead Batteries - In H1, battery - enterprise operations were below expectations. In H2, there may be a phased improvement in consumption. In terms of exports, although there was an improvement in H1, the overall annual export demand is expected to decline by 1% [75][100][104] 3.5.2 Domestic Terminal Demand - For electric two - wheelers, production increased in H1, mainly due to consumption - promotion policies. The new national standard and trade - in policies may stimulate demand, but lithium - battery substitution is a long - term risk. For automobiles, production increased in H1, but export may face pressure in H2, and lithium - battery substitution will also affect lead - battery demand. In the communication - base - station and energy - storage sectors, base - station equipment production decreased, while energy - storage demand was strong, and the lead - consumption growth rate is expected to reach 8% [82][87][92] 3.5.3 Overseas Demand - In 2025, overseas lead demand generally recovered, with an increase in Southeast Asia and a decline in India. China's lead - battery exports decreased in H1, and the annual export volume is expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weak overseas demand, high domestic costs, trade protection, and battery - factory expansion overseas [94][100][104] 3.6 Inventory End - In H1, LME lead inventory was high, indicating weak overseas consumption. Domestically, social inventory was at a relatively low level at the end of June. In H2, social inventory may fluctuate widely, and potential delivery risks should be noted due to tight ore supply. There is also a possibility of the import window opening intermittently, and attention should be paid to interval - trading opportunities based on the internal - external price ratio [108][112][121] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be reduced this year, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in H2, with a reference range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures are recommended, as well as positive spread arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads and interval trading based on the internal - external price ratio [4][122][123]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the second half of the year, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand. The raw material issue remains a crucial factor influencing lead price trends. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to raw material - end changes and macro - policy guidance [2][98][99] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review: Long "N" Trend - In Q1, driven by macro - sentiment and tight raw materials, the lead price center shifted upwards. In January, due to environmental protection restrictions and weak demand, the lead market was in a state of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, the lead price rose but faced resistance due to low downstream acceptance. In March, with the recovery of supply and positive policies, the lead price fluctuated upwards [8] - In Q2, affected by tariff disturbances, the lead price was low at first and then high. In late March, due to supply - side factors and concerns about the off - season, the lead price declined. In early April, trade frictions caused the lead price to drop. Later, the lead price traded within a narrow range due to the contradiction between tight raw materials and weak demand. In mid - to late June, the lead price broke through the 17,000 yuan/ton mark [9] - As of June 30, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the end of last year and down 11.49% from the same period last year; the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the end of last year and down 11.88% from the same period last year. As of June 27, the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the end of last year and down 11.91% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME three - month lead (electronic trading) was 2,041.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.61% from the end of last year and down 8.10% from the same period last year [10] 2. Raw Materials & Profits: Strong Cost Support (1) Primary Lead: Tight Lead Concentrate Supply with No Improvement in TC - As of June 27, the average price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,450 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the end of last year and down 11.32% from the same period last year; the average price of imported lead concentrate was 16,597.68 yuan/ton, up 5.65% from the end of last year and down 2.58% from the same period last year [22] - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global lead concentrate production was 1.4324 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% (+48,600 tons). In China, domestic mines mainly resumed production with obvious increments. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese lead concentrate was 633,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.61% (+71,000 tons) [28] - For imported ores, overseas mine production was lower than expected, and the import supplement was relatively limited. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of lead concentrate was 552,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 32.05% (+134,100 tons). The main sources of imported goods were Russia (29%), Peru (9%), Australia (9%), the United States (7%), and Turkey (5%) [29] - As of the end of May, the raw material inventory of primary lead smelters was 389,300 tons, with raw material days of about 25 days, at a relatively high level. As of June 20, the primary lead smelting profit (processing) turned positive to 29.4 yuan/ton [41][42] (2) Recycled Lead: Limited Supply and Rising Scrap Battery Prices - At the beginning of the year, the scrap battery price was stable, and the recycled lead profit was acceptable. Since mid - March, with the increase in smelter production and the arrival of the scrap battery off - season, the scrap battery price was prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the recycled lead profit declined significantly [48] - As of June 30, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 3.01% from the end of last year and down 11.80% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,279 yuan/ton, up 4.20% from the end of last year and down 8.39% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,506 yuan/ton, up 4.30% from the end of last year and down 8.58% from the same period last year [48] 3. Supply Side: One Increase and One Decrease (1) Primary Lead: Rising Production - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global refined lead production was 4.3916 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.08% (+89,300 tons). From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese refined lead was 1.5651 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42% (+121,500 tons) [64] (2) Recycled Lead: Volatile Production - Affected by raw materials and environmental protection factors, the production of recycled lead enterprises fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese recycled lead was 1.347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.61% (-22,100 tons) [70] 4. Demand Side: Off - Season Conditions (1) Slow Downstream Purchasing in the Off - Season - In the first half of the year, with subsidy policies such as trade - in, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was acceptable. In the off - season of lead - acid battery consumption, the demand weakened, but policies and "rush - to - export" under tariff disturbances alleviated some concerns [76] - Many provinces and cities have introduced electric bicycle trade - in policies, which have a positive impact on the demand for lead - acid batteries [79][80][83] (2) Continuous Closure of Export Windows - As of June 27, the profit of exporting lead ingots to Taiwan was - 2,392.94 yuan/ton, and the profit of exporting to Southeast Asia was - 2,464.55 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of lead ingots was 20,753 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.53% (+6,294 tons). The cumulative export volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries was 94.2984 million units, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.24% (-3.1552 million units) [84] 5. Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - The lead ingot inventory fluctuated and increased. As of June 30, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 56,300 tons, up 6.03% from the end of last year and down 9.05% from the same period last year [86][87] 6. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the second half of the year, the macro - environment is favorable. The raw material remains a key factor in determining the lead price. The production of primary lead is expected to increase steadily, while the production of recycled lead is uncertain. The demand is expected to improve steadily [98] - Overall, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand in the second half of the year. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead， price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton [99]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The lead price is currently in a short - term upward trend, driven by improved macro - sentiment and expectations of consumption improvement. However, the recovery of secondary lead smelter profits increases the expectation of resuming production, which is not conducive to the lead price. The lead price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and there is a risk of price retracement when the positive sentiment fades [3][6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - From June 20th to June 27th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,810 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, an increase of 315 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,995 dollars/ton to 2,041.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 46.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.43 to 8.39. The SHFE inventory increased by 638 tons to 51,929 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,425 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.03 million tons to 5.6 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2508, breaking through the 17,000 - yuan integer mark and rising strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The LME lead price also broke through the shock range, with a weekly increase of 2.33%. In the spot market, after the SHFE lead price rose and then fell, holders maintained a discount for sales, and the supply of secondary refined lead increased with an expanded discount, resulting in sluggish trading in the electrolytic lead market [5]. 3. Industry News - In July, the average domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees were 550 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, down 50 yuan/metal ton and - 15 dollars/dry ton month - on - month [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead concentrate processing fee, primary and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13][15][17][21].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-26 现货市场地域性成交有所好转 铅价突破万七关口 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-06-25，LME铅现货升水为-24.13美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16925 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至-35.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化200 元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化175元/吨至16925元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化225元/吨至17025元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至10250元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10500 元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-25，沪铅主力合约开于17000元/吨，收于17165元/吨，较前一交易日变化210元/吨，全天交易 日成交36222手，较前一交易日变化1819手，全天交易日持仓15153手，手较前一交易日变化-4407手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17200元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in lead prices is primarily driven by supply constraints and expectations of improved consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [1][2][3][4]. Supply Side Analysis - Supply constraints are a major factor in the recent strength of lead prices, with slow recovery in recycled lead production due to industry losses and raw material shortages [1][2][3]. - The original lead smelting sector is experiencing regular maintenance, which has led to a decrease in inventory levels and supports price increases [4][7]. - The tight supply of waste batteries continues to exert upward pressure on prices, while the profitability of recycled lead remains under pressure, leading to reduced production [4][8]. Demand Side Analysis - The downstream lead-acid battery industry is transitioning from a low-demand season to a peak season, with some companies planning to increase production in anticipation of higher demand [5][6]. - Current consumption in the lead-acid battery market is still subdued, but there are expectations for improvement as summer approaches and replacement demand increases [6][8]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with battery manufacturers considering price adjustments based on current high lead prices, but actual demand recovery remains to be seen [6][7]. Inventory Dynamics - Domestic lead inventory levels have not shown significant accumulation, providing support for lead prices, with expectations of improved consumption in the third quarter [5][8]. - The inventory situation is influenced by supply-side reductions, with recycled lead production cuts leading to lower inventory levels compared to previous years [8][9]. - The market is currently in a state of equilibrium, with supply constraints preventing significant inventory build-up despite weak demand [7][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoint - As the traditional consumption peak season for lead batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the probability of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low, and there may be a possibility of a short squeeze. It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.26/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,925 yuan/ton, closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,403 lots, an increase of 8,197 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 19,560 lots, a decrease of 8,713 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,005 yuan/ton and a low of 16,870 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,090 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price for ex-factory sales, and traders offered discounts of 200 - 130 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507/2508 contracts for ex-factory sales. In the Hunan region, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, but the trading volume was weak. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui regions offered premiums of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Individual traders in Guangdong and Tianjin regions had firm quotes and were waiting and seeing. The lead futures price rose slightly during the day, and downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement. The overall market trading volume was light [2] Inventory - On June 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 24, the LME lead inventory was 277,375 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3]

| | | 偏淡，对铅价的支撑较为有限。充电桩以及汽车需求均出现斜率放缓迹象。库存方面，海外库存重新累库 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 ，关注后续库存变化情况；国内库存小幅累库，主要国补有所消退，电动车需求放缓。从铅精矿加工角度 来看，开始走低，因此对于后续再生铅和原生铅产量起到负面影响。综上所述，沪铅整体供应走弱，对价 免责声明 格有一定支撑，但沪铅价格受到需求减弱影响继续承压下跌 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 沪铅产业日报 2025-06-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16920 | 110 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1995 | 6.5 | | | 07- ...