1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, the lead price fluctuated upwards. The domestic lead ingot social and factory inventories decreased to a low level, and there was a large - scale cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts overseas. The lead price increased with rising positions. With the slowdown of destocking of the total domestic lead ingot inventory but still at a low absolute level, and the continued shortage of deliverable products, and the relatively concentrated long positions of SHFE lead, it is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In October, the lead price fluctuated upwards. As of November 6, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.26% to 17,438 yuan/ton, with a total long - only trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME lead 3S rose 0.5 to 2,022 dollars/ton, with a total position of 150,000 lots. The SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 17,225 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Market Structure**: Domestically, the social inventory slightly increased to 32,100 tons, the SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,900 tons. Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory was 208,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 106,700 tons. The cross - market SHFE - LME ratio was 1.211 after excluding exchange rates, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 31.09 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 27,000 tons, the factory inventory was 420,000 tons. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.17%. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons, and the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons. The lead - acid battery start - up rate was 68.90% [11]. - **Outlook**: The visible lead ore inventory continued to decline, the primary smelter start - up rate remained high, and the primary lead factory inventory increased. The recycled lead ingot weekly output increased. The downstream battery enterprise start - up rate declined, and the domestic lead ingot total inventory destocking slowed down but was still at a low level, with deliverable products remaining in short supply. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. 3.2 Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In September 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 150,600 physical tons, and in October, the domestic lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons. The total supply of lead concentrate in September was 306,000 metal tons. In June 2025, the global lead ore output was 395,900 tons [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 27,000 tons, the factory inventory was 420,000 tons. The lead concentrate import TC was - 125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Data**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.17%, and in October 2025, the domestic primary lead output was 326,000 tons [11][26]. 3.3 Recycled Supply - **Raw Material and Production**: The lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and in October 2025, the domestic recycled lead output was 346,300 tons [31][33][35]. - **Total Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot total supply was 657,200 tons [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Apparent Demand**: The lead - acid battery start - up rate was 68.9%. In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot apparent demand was 718,900 tons [40]. - **Battery Export**: In September 2025, the estimated lead - containing net export of batteries was 60,700 tons [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, the new installation demand improved; in the automobile sector, the demand for lead was expected to grow steadily; in the base station sector, the demand for lead - acid batteries increased steadily [49][51][54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 61,800 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to September was a shortage of 6,800 tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of 8,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to July was a shortage of 53,900 tons [66]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Market Structure**: Domestically, the social inventory slightly increased, the SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,600 tons. Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory was 224,200 tons. The cross - market SHFE - LME ratio was 1.213 after excluding exchange rates, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 24.99 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead became net long, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From the position perspective, the short - term guidance was bullish [80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic smelter production increase and decrease coexist, and the supply shortage has improved. After the consumer end resumes production, it is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. The terminal peak season is not prosperous. It is expected that the lead price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The opening of primary lead smelters increased and decreased, with small fluctuations in production. The opening of secondary lead smelters continued to rise due to improved profits and raw material supply. The opening of battery enterprises declined due to limited cost transfer. The import profit window was gradually closing, and downstream procurement was poor, leading to an increase in inventory [4][21][34][53][61][69]. - SMM 1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.43% to 17,225 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.17% to 17,390 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.42% to 2,025 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Mineral Supply and TC - The tight mineral supply pattern has not been alleviated, and TC is stable with a weakening trend. Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 125 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits declined, and as of October 24, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 106 yuan/ton [22][27]. 3.3 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 67.17% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was expected to be 50,050 tons, with some enterprises having maintenance plans and others resuming normal production [28][33]. 3.4 Secondary Lead - The price of waste batteries was firm. As of October 31, the average price of waste batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead smelters declined slightly. As of November 3, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 160 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 56 yuan/ton [37][46]. - The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of October 30, the raw material inventory was 134,450 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,940 tons. It is expected that the finished product inventory will further accumulate [47][49]. - The secondary lead operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 43.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 51,300 tons, with a slight decline. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise [50][52]. 3.5 Lead Batteries - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 6.46 percentage points to 68.9%. Due to limited terminal demand and high lead prices, some enterprises reduced production to avoid over - inventory. It is expected that the operating rate will recover this week [58][60]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of October 24, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the import profit was 24.99 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was gradually closing [63][68]. 3.7 Inventory - As of October 30, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 29,800 tons, a decrease; the inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands in factories was 8,600 tons, a month - on - month increase. High lead prices suppressed downstream procurement, leading to inventory accumulation [72][78]. - As of October 31, SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease; as of October 30, LME inventory was 220,300 tons, a decrease [79][81]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to August 2025 [82].

Report Overview - Report Title: Lead Monthly Report for November - Regenerated Lead Restart Process Accelerates, Shanghai Lead Price May Fall from Highs [4] - Report Date: October 30, 2025 [9][23][35] - Report Author: Galaxy Futures [8] Core Viewpoint - The restart process of regenerated lead production is accelerating, and the Shanghai lead price may fall from its high level [4] Summary by Section 1. Fundamental Situation - **Supply Side** - **Lead Concentrate**: The report provides data on domestic lead concentrate production, net imports, and total supply from January 2024 to September 2025. For example, in 2025 from January to September, the cumulative production was 124.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.54%, and the cumulative net imports were 107.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.52% [89] - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead from January 2024 to September 2025 is presented. In 2025 from January to September, the cumulative production was 286.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.69% [89] - **Regenerated Lead**: The production of regenerated lead from January 2024 to September 2025 is shown. In 2025 from January to September, the cumulative production was 231.70 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.29% [89] - **Refined Lead**: Data on refined lead imports, exports, and total supply are also provided. In 2025 from January to September, the cumulative net exports were 0.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108.06%, and the cumulative total supply was 518.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27% [89] - **Demand Side** - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The report includes data on the monthly and weekly开工率 of lead - acid batteries, exports, imports, and inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers [93][94][100] - **Downstream Industries**: Data on the production and exports of automobiles, new energy vehicles, motorcycles, power project investment, communication base station construction, and lead alloy imports and exports are presented [107][110][114][115][117][126] 2. Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The report predicts that the Shanghai lead price may fall from its high level due to the accelerating restart process of regenerated lead production [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply - side: For primary lead, despite some smelters planning to boost annual production and sales, there are many maintenance activities from October to November, so production is expected to rise slightly. For recycled lead, smelters affected by the 770 - document are gradually resuming production, but due to low raw material inventory and transportation control in northern regions, the increase in recycled lead output is limited, and the spot lead ingot will remain tight in the short - term. Lead prices are recommended to short at high levels [2]. - Demand - side: After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has significantly rebounded. The traditional consumption season has arrived, and the "trade - in" activities in the automotive and electric bicycle markets support lead demand. Some leading battery companies have good orders and are expanding energy storage business, which will further increase lead demand. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually expanded, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is affected by tariffs, which will suppress demand growth to some extent [2]. - Inventory: Inventory has been continuously decreasing. But with the expected arrival of imported lead and the possible increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change next week. If the inventory depletion rate slows down, it will resist price increases [2]. - Overall: If the Fed's interest rate cut tomorrow is less than expected, the market may have a negative feedback. Lead prices are recommended to short at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract is 17,355 yuan/ton, with no change; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,025 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars/ton. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 122,463 lots, down 566 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 974 lots, down 2,084 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 22,997 tons, down 100 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 229,675 tons, down 2,700 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The basis of the lead main contract is - 155 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.54 dollars/ton, down 1.74 dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, with no change. The global lead mine output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 380 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 9,967.86 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,450 yuan/ton, with no change. The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,032.49 points, up 9.89 points. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2]. Industry News - A lead - zinc mine project in Inner Mongolia has resumed production recently after suspension for rectification. It is expected that the total output of lead - zinc metal in November will reach 1,000 - 1,500 metal tons. However, affected by winter cold, it may enter the regular suspension period in mid - December, and the specific production plan is not clear [2]. - Macroscopically, ADP released the weekly estimated data of the US national employment report. In the four weeks ending October 11, the average number of newly - added jobs was 14,250 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The improvement in lead consumption has increased the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing lead ingots, and China's social lead inventory has dropped to a more than one - year low. Favorable factors for the terminal demand of the non - ferrous sector revealed in important domestic meetings have led to a significant increase in lead prices this week. However, due to the occasional interference of trade disputes and the suppression of demand caused by the rising lead prices, the possibility of a continuous and substantial increase in lead prices in the future is relatively low [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$36.64 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,025 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white - shell and black - shell remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On October 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,640 yuan/ton, closed at 17,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 81,722 lots, an increase of 2,208 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 84,395 lots, an increase of 549 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,640 yuan/ton and a low of 17,395 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,520 yuan/ton and closed at 17,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of October 27, the LME lead inventory was 232,375 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The operation strategy this week is to consider a buy - on - dips hedging approach, with the recommended buying range between 17,250 yuan/ton and 17,300 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the lead price surges, the profits of smelters, especially secondary lead enterprises, have been significantly restored, and the supply shortage problem may be improved. Meanwhile, the high lead price suppresses the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, so the risk of the lead price rising and then falling is relatively large. Attention should be paid to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 2.37% month - on - month to 17,300 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract increased by 3.05% to 17,595 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic disk) rose by 2.28% to 2,016.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month - on - month at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased month - on - month to - 125 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight ore supply remained unchanged, and the TC quotation was stable with a weakening trend. The smelter's profit rebounded, and as of October 17, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 133.7 yuan/ton [31]. 2. Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate increased month - on - month to 67.57%. The production of some refineries that resumed production was lower than expected, resulting in a phased supply shortage [2][32]. - The weekly production and maintenance arrangements of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises showed that the total weekly production was expected to be 50,300 tons. Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia had local maintenance, and some enterprises' production fluctuations recovered [37]. 3. Secondary Lead - As of October 24, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The demand for waste batteries increased, but the stock in the hands of holders was limited, and they were reluctant to sell, so the price was prone to rise and difficult to fall [45]. - As of October 24, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 260 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was 45 yuan/ton. The lead price strengthened, and the waste battery price did not follow the increase for the time being, so the smelter's profit increased significantly [51]. - As of October 23, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 134,700 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,920 tons. The refinery's operating rate increased, and the raw material inventory decreased. Due to the improvement of downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the tight supply of primary lead, the accumulation of secondary lead finished product inventory was not obvious, but it might gradually increase in the future [54]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 7.1 percentage points month - on - month to 42.2%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 52,000 tons, showing an upward trend. The production increase of some refineries in Anhui and the resumption of production of a large - scale refinery in Inner Mongolia drove the overall increase in the operating rate of secondary lead [57]. 4. Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 0.39 percentage points month - on - month to 75.36%. The energy storage battery market performed well, and the orders of medium - and large - scale enterprises were relatively full. The electric bicycle and automobile battery markets had some differences, with the original equipment supporting orders being better than the replacement orders. However, the soaring lead price might affect the enterprise's operating rate and raw material purchasing enthusiasm [64]. 5. Import and Export - As of October 17, the export loss of refined lead was about 3,100 yuan/ton. As of October 24, the import profit was 329.16 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was opened [74]. 6. Inventory - As of October 27, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 30,300 tons, and the inventory decreased. The warehouse of the main deliverable brands of primary lead was 1,520 tons, showing a month - on - month decline. The resumption of production of refineries was lower than expected, while the downstream operating rate steadily increased and the purchasing was active, leading to a decrease in lead ingot inventory [84]. - As of October 24, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,300 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease. As of October 23, the LME inventory was 235,400 tons, also showing a decrease [87]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet showed the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from October 2024 to August 2025 [88].

Report Title Lead Weekly Report: Pay Attention to the Impact of Capital Flows, Lead Prices May Rise and Then Fall [1] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still have upward momentum due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure, and social inventories may gradually accumulate slowly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic - **Trading Logic and Strategy** - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Supply**: Domestic lead concentrate supply and demand are in a tight balance, with domestic processing fees at 350 yuan/metal ton and SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fees at - 125 dollars/dry ton. After the lead price increase, scrap battery purchase prices of secondary lead smelters did not rise significantly, and recyclers were reluctant to sell. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead continued to increase, and raw material demand also increased. With the increase in the operating rate of secondary lead smelters, the price of lead - containing waste is expected to rise [4]. - **Smelting**: The average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters was 67.57%, a 0.93% decline from last week. Some smelters in Hunan and North China had production changes. The SMM four - province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 42.21%, a 7.10% increase from last week. The smelting profit improved, and the production enthusiasm of secondary lead smelters was boosted, with the operating rate expected to rise next week [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.35%, a 0.38% increase from the previous week. The energy storage battery market performed best, while the electric bicycle and automobile battery markets had differences. High lead prices may affect battery enterprise orders and production [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, SMM's five - region social lead ingot inventory was 31,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from October 20 and October 16. On October 23, LME inventory was 135,400 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from October 17. In the long - term, domestic social inventory may gradually accumulate [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still rise due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure. Short positions can be gradually established at high prices. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see. - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [4] - **Other Sub - sections** - **1.2 Futures Price**: Information on Shanghai lead price, LME lead price, monthly spread, and futures market trading and positions is provided, with data sources from IFIND and SMM [6] - **1.3 Price Spread**: Information on SMM 1 lead ingot, Shanghai lead spot premium/discount, secondary lead, LME lead 0 - 3 month premium/discount, and lead concentrate scrap price difference is covered [9] - **1.4 Inventory Data**: It includes LME lead inventory, cancellation warrant ratio, domestic social inventory, domestic registered warrants, LME inventory by region, and port inventory [12] - **1.5 Lead Industry Chain Inventory**: It involves smelter lead concentrate inventory, primary lead smelter raw material inventory, secondary lead smelter finished product inventory (monthly and weekly), primary lead delivery brand factory warehouse, and primary lead smelter finished product inventory [16] 3.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - **2.1 Raw Material Supply - Primary** - It includes global lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, lead concentrate import profit and loss, and silver concentrate imports [21] - **2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary** - Information on domestic total lead concentrate supply, domestic mine operating rate, and domestic lead ore production is provided [24] - **2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary** - It covers the price of lead - containing waste, scrap battery price, and secondary lead smelter raw material inventory [29][30] 3.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - **3.1 Global Refined Lead** - It includes global refined lead balance, production, and demand [37][39] - **3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export** - It involves import profit and loss, import volume, export profit and loss, export volume, net export volume, and seasonal export profit and loss [42] - **3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profit** - It includes lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profit, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue [43] - **3.4 Primary Lead Supply** - It covers primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and electrolytic lead main delivery brand production [48] - **3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Cost and Profit** - It includes the cost and profit of large - scale and small - to - medium - scale secondary lead enterprises [50][54] - **3.6 Secondary Lead Supply** - It involves secondary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and secondary lead bullion production [60] - **3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply** - It includes domestic total lead ingot supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export [64] 3.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - **4.1 Lead - Acid Battery** - It includes lead - acid battery enterprise operating rate, dealer finished product inventory, export volume, enterprise finished product inventory, and import volume [71] - **4.2 Lead Alloys and Plates** - It involves lead alloy price, lead alloy import and export, lead plate import and export, and other lead plate import and export [74] - **4.3 Automobile** - It includes Chinese automobile production, export, production structure, traditional fuel vehicle production, and new energy vehicle production [76][77] - **4.4 Motorcycle, Power, and Communication** - It covers motorcycle production, communication construction volume, power project (grid project and power source project) [80][81][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, there is an increase in both supply and demand, but refinery operations fall short of expectations due to factors like raw materials, resulting in tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has broken through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. With good refinery profits and an open import window, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply, and there is a need to be vigilant against a potential sharp decline in lead prices [1] - For the zinc market, the macro sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making domestic TC difficult to increase. The zinc price has received some support and is fluctuating upwards. With the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the persistent LME 0 - 3 back structure, attention should be paid to overseas structural risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract was 17,595 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic session) was 2,016.50 dollars/ton, up 0.22% [1] - The lead basis was - 295 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous lead futures contract was 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous lead futures contract was 45 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 79,514 lots, up 7.44%; the open interest was 83,846 lots, up 260.04%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.95, down 70.16% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 235,375 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 23,048 tons, down 2.89% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.57%, up 0.93 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 42.2%, up 7.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.36%, up 0.39 percentage points [1] - A secondary lead refinery in East China has decided to temporarily halt production, with only a small number of long - term orders to be fulfilled, and the resumption date is undetermined [1] Investment Strategy - A short position can be lightly established at high levels [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,120 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic session) was 3,019.50 dollars/ton, down 0.10% [1] - The zinc basis was - 235 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous zinc futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous zinc futures contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 130,461 lots, down 20.62%; the open interest was 120,167 lots, down 3.67%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.09, down 17.60% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 65,849 tons, up 0.49% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 57.48%, down 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 53.13%, down 1.50 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.36%, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - On October 23rd, the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 221,889 lots, an increase of 300 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant information provided in the text. Core View of the Report The lead ore's visible inventory is decreasing, and the import TC of lead concentrate is declining again. The smelting operation rate at the primary end has increased, and the inventory at primary plants has decreased. The inventory of waste lead-acid batteries has slightly increased, the smelting profit of recycled lead has improved significantly, and the operation rate of recycled lead has risen above 40%. On the demand side, the operation rate of batteries has slightly improved, and the price of lead-acid batteries has increased after a long period of stability. The social and factory inventories of lead ingots continue to decline, with the latest social inventory below 30,000 tons. The monthly spread of SHFE lead has shown an explosive increase after a long period of stability, and there are certain structural risks in the domestic market. Considering the recent positive atmosphere in the non-ferrous metal market, the prices of base metals have been strong, and several metals such as silver, zinc, and lead have shown structural risks. The sector atmosphere is favorable for bulls, and it is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 - Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the SHFE lead index closed up 0.17% at 17,592 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S rose 10.5 to 2,017.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 154,600 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, the refined-scrap spread was 75 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 26,100 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 23,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was -190 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was 40 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 239,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 163,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -36.83 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -84.5 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE/LME ratio was 1.223, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 329.16 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 429,000 tons, equivalent to 26.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was -125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary operation rate was 67.57%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 2,000 tons. At the recycled end, the waste lead inventory was 79,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid batteries was 75.36% [11]. 02 - Primary Supply - **Imports**: In September 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 150,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of -6.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.8%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,070,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 24.4%. The net import of silver concentrate in September was 160,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of -8.6% and a month - on - month change of -14.1%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,358,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.8% [15]. - **Production**: In September 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 151,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of -3.0%. From January to September, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,249,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.5%. In September, the net import of lead - containing ores was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -7.5% and a month - on - month change of -0.7%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,185,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.6% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In September 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 306,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.4% and a month - on - month change of -1.8%. From January to September, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 2,434,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total production of lead ore was 2,256,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 429,000 tons, equivalent to 26.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was -125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Operation Rate and Output**: The primary operation rate was 67.57%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 2,000 tons. In September 2025, China's primary lead production was 327,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.4% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to September, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,860,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.3% [26]. 03 - Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: At the recycled end, the waste lead inventory was 79,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In September 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.5% and a month - on - month change of -1.0%. From January to September, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 2,888,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.7% [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In September 2025, the net export of lead ingots was -12,400 tons, a year - on - year change of -70.1% and a month - on - month change of 9.5%. From January to September, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was -80,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -50.1%. In September, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 657,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.8% and a month - on - month change of 0.1%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 5,829,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [35]. 04 - Demand Analysis - **Battery Operation Rate and Apparent Demand**: On the demand side, the operation rate of lead - acid batteries was 75.36%. In September 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 718,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 20.4% and a month - on - month change of 12.5%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 5,836,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In September 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.6474 million units, and the net export weight was 97,000 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 60,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.1% and a month - on - month change of -0.8%. From January to September, the total net export of lead in batteries was 554,700 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In September 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery manufacturers decreased from 20.5 to 19.7 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries at dealers decreased from 42 to 39.7 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries with lithium - iron phosphate starting batteries, the high current vehicle ownership and the high replacement demand of existing vehicles support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the rapid development of communication technology and the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations across the country have driven a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 05 - Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of -61,800 tons. From January to September, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of -6,800 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of -8,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of -53,900 tons [66]. 06 - Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steelhome data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased to 26,100 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the SHFE was 23,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was -190 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was 40 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 239,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 163,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -36.83 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -84.5 dollars/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE/LME ratio was 1.223, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 329.16 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net position of SHFE lead turned net long, the net long position of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].