| 铅锌日评20250606：或有反弹 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/6 指标 近期趋势 单位 今值 变动 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,500.00 0.46% | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,695.00 0.15% | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -195.00 50.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -15.00 - | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -23.08 -1.10 | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -62.40 -2.50 价差 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -15.00 35.00 | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 - -5.00 | | | | 铅 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 20.00 10.00 | | | | 30,915.00 -11.70% 期货活跃合约成交量 手 | | | | 成交持仓 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 50,484.00 -3.83% | | | | 成交持仓比 / 0.61 -8.18% | | | | 吨 282 ...

撰写品种：沪铅 撰写时间：2025/6/3 回顾周期：日度 研究员： 曹柏泉 咨询证号（Z0019820） 沪铅日度报告 2025 年 6 月 3 日，沪铅 2507 合约，开盘价 16650 元/吨，最高价 16685 元/吨， 最低价 16525 元/吨，均价 16575 元/吨，持仓 55547 手，日增 2217 手，成交量 28541 手。 宏观方面，国内 5 月财新 PMI 跌至 48.3，处于 2022 年 9 月以来新低。美国 5 月 ISF 制造业连续三个月萎缩，来到 48.5，低于预期和前值。 供应端，原生铅生产基本稳定，广西地区结束检修使得产量提升，但华北地区计划 6 月初复产，整体处于复产与检修共存双局面。再生铅企业开工率 36.71%，虽然有部分 复产，但安徽地区周末检修，并且原料短缺带来的挺价，导致提产预期不强。 需求端，下游蓄电池消费淡季仍在，企业开工率下滑，库存偏高，需求疲弱。 综合而言，废电瓶处于负反馈压力与货源紧张交织的状态，再生铅供应维持低位， 消费淡季效应将继续显现，对铅价施压，短期铅价或延续偏弱震荡。 公司热线：028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱：institut ...

Price Overview - On May 27, the spot price of lead ingots in Shanghai was quoted at 16,625.00 CNY/ton, which is a discount of 200.00 CNY/ton compared to the futures main price of 16,825.00 CNY/ton [1] - The closing price for the main Shanghai lead futures contract on May 27 was 16,825.00 CNY/ton, with a slight decline of 0.09%, reaching a high of 16,850.00 CNY/ton and a low of 16,745.00 CNY/ton during the day [2] Market Dynamics - A lead-zinc smelting plant in a southern region of China underwent temporary maintenance this week, leading to reduced production in the precious metals workshop, with the specific recovery time yet to be determined [2] - As of May 23, the inventory of Shanghai lead futures recorded 48,428.00 tons, a decrease of 7,044.00 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - According to New Lake Futures research, primary lead smelters are maintaining stable production levels, while the treatment charge (TC) for lead ore is on a downward trend [3] - The recycling sector has seen continuous low operating rates for recycled lead smelters due to ongoing losses, but profits are expected to recover as the price of waste batteries declines [3] - The traditional consumption season for lead-acid batteries is currently slow, with dealers holding high inventory levels, leading battery manufacturers to adjust production based on sales [3] - As of this week, domestic social inventory stands at 4.34 tons, with a reduction of 0.69 million tons, indicating a preference for warehouse stock among downstream players [3] - Last week, LME lead inventory saw a significant delivery of 50,000 tons, reaching a nearly 10-year high [3] - Overall, the combination of the off-peak season and weakened support from waste battery prices suggests a potential downward shift in lead prices in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market has been in a situation of weak supply and demand for a long time, and preparations need to be made in advance for the upcoming changes. The current primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is at a low level. There is an expectation of tightening raw material supply, and some smelters still have room for production cuts. Terminal demand is weak, and it is necessary to wait for inventory clearance, but also be vigilant against the possibility of downstream enterprises ramping up production during the semi - annual report season. In the short term, there are opportunities to buy at low prices, and for arbitrage, both inter - period and domestic - foreign trades should be temporarily observed [4][45]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Objects - The research focuses on primary lead, secondary lead, and lead oxide enterprises in Hunan Province. After the Chinese New Year, refineries mainly resumed production, but issues such as raw material supply and environmental protection control occurred periodically. Starting from April, lead prices fell due to macro - disturbances and weak demand, while the price of scrap batteries increased inversely, leading to an expansion of losses for comprehensive recycling enterprises and a decline in the operating rate of secondary lead refineries. By late May, the contradiction in raw material supply reached a peak, and the cost supported lead prices, but at the same time, the operating rate of battery manufacturers continued to decline, resulting in a situation where Shanghai lead was in a dilemma between rising and falling [12]. 3.2 Key Research Conclusions and Analyses - **Supply - side Pressure**: Most secondary lead refineries in Hunan are operating at half - capacity, and the pressure to ensure supply remains high. The overall operating rate of the five comprehensive recycling enterprises in the research sample is about 50%, mainly due to the shortage of raw material supply. Most enterprises reported difficulties in recent raw material procurement, and the raw material inventory of most secondary lead enterprises has almost reached the bottom. Although enterprises are confident in future raw material supply, concerns about the low - level raw material inventory are inevitable without hedging [2][17]. - **Profitability**: Hunan's lead processing enterprises have different operating conditions, but all sample enterprises reported that their cash flow is not tight and there are no accounts receivable issues. Primary lead enterprises are losing money in lead production alone but are profitable overall due to by - products such as gold, silver, and tin. Among secondary lead enterprises, those using coarse lead and slag as raw materials and having relatively strong recycling capabilities are profitable overall, mainly due to by - products such as copper, tin, and antimony. However, some enterprises using only scrap batteries as raw materials are facing losses. Attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in small - metal prices on corporate profits [2][24]. - **Demand Outlook**: Lead demand was relatively good in March but declined continuously from April to May, and became even weaker after May Day. The overall downstream demand is in a weak period of terminal demand off - season, initial production start - up, and approaching holidays. Most manufacturers agreed that the demand bottom is approaching and believed that demand would not improve until at least July, but they were also worried about the instability of large - scale enterprises' operations [2][29]. - **Other Information**: The earlier heavy - metal pollution incident had limited impact, but air pollution had a greater impact. Most research manufacturers believe that lead prices will fluctuate weakly with limited downside space. Sample enterprises expect a slight decline in the future treatment charge (TC). There are scrap battery price - guarantee policies in various regions, and the price - guarantee time can be adjusted according to the volume [3][37][38]. 3.3 Investment Recommendations - The decline in scrap battery prices is only temporary, and the possibility of a sharp drop is low. Instead, more attention should be paid to the recent raw material procurement situation of price - adjusting manufacturers. In terms of fundamentals, the weak supply - demand pattern of lead has persisted for a long time. Currently, the primary lead production is stable, and the secondary lead production is at a low level. There is an expectation of tightening raw material supply, and some smelters still have room for production cuts. Terminal demand is weak, and demand has basically reached the bottom. Most finished product inventories are concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain, and it is necessary to wait for inventory clearance. Be vigilant against the possibility of downstream enterprises ramping up production during the semi - annual report season. Strategically, the downside space of Shanghai lead is limited, and low - buying opportunities can be gradually considered recently. For arbitrage, both inter - period and domestic - foreign trades should be temporarily observed [4][42][45]. 3.4 Research Minutes - **Non - ferrous Metals Joint Enterprise A**: A large - scale domestic mining and metallurgy integrated non - ferrous metals enterprise with a lead smelting capacity of 150,000 tons. The company mainly focuses on deep - processing and alloy products, with a proportion of alloy products exceeding 60%. It produces by - products such as gold, silver, and bismuth. The company has been operating stably with a capacity utilization rate of about 95% this year. It uses both domestic and imported ores, with a 20% - 30% proportion of overseas ores. The long - term contract ratio of primary lead is over 90%. It maintains a one - month raw material inventory and has no finished product inventory. It needs a TC of over 1,000 yuan/ton to make a profit, and the main profit comes from by - products such as matte and tin slag. It hedges both raw materials and finished products [48][49][50]. - **Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise B**: A lead comprehensive recycling enterprise with raw materials all from coarse lead. It has a built - in lead ingot production capacity of 100,000 tons and currently produces about 6,000 tons per month. The by - products include gold, silver, tin, and zinc oxide. The operating rate is about 60%, and demand has been weak since April. It mainly imports raw materials from Jiangxi and has some pressure in raw material supply. The long - term contract ratio of primary lead is about 80%. It has a raw material inventory of about 200 tons and almost no finished product inventory. It needs a processing fee of about 1,200 yuan/ton to make a profit and does not conduct hedging [54][55]. - **Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise C**: A medium - sized comprehensive recycling enterprise with an annual lead material production capacity of 100,000 tons and a waste comprehensive recycling capacity of 180,000 tons. It currently only operates the scrap battery production line with an operating rate of 50% - 60%. The demand has been weak this year, especially in May. It sources about two - thirds of its raw materials from Hunan and one - third from Guangdong. The raw material inventory is usually less than five days, and the finished product inventory is full. The cost of secondary lead is about 800 yuan/ton, and it has been in a loss state since May. It does not allow hedging and believes that the short - term rebound of lead prices is limited but is bullish in the third quarter [56][57][58]. - **Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise D**: A comprehensive recycling enterprise engaged in the recycling of rare and precious metal resources. It has an annual material processing capacity of about 250,000 tons and an electrolytic lead production capacity of 4,000 tons per month, which may increase to 5,000 tons by the end of May. It is currently operating at half - capacity, and demand has been weak since May. It believes that downstream demand has price elasticity and expects demand to recover in the second half of the year. It mainly sources raw materials from local mining traders, domestic regions, and a small amount from imports. The long - term contract and spot sales were initially in a 50:50 ratio, but now production can only meet long - term contracts. The raw material inventory is about 2 - 3 days, and there is almost no finished product inventory. The electrolytic lead cost is about 500 yuan/ton, and the company has been profitable overall this year, with the main profit coming from by - products. It conducts hedging flexibly [63][64][66]. - **Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise E**: A small - scale comprehensive recycling enterprise integrating rare and precious metals such as gold, silver, and bismuth. It mainly recycles slag and waste from refineries, with an annual processing capacity of about 60,000 tons. It is currently operating at an operating rate of less，than 40%, and sales have been poor recently. It has no raw material inventory and has cleared its finished product inventory. The electrolytic lead cost is about 500 yuan/ton, and it has maintained a small profit since the beginning of the year. The main profit comes from by - products such as tin, bismuth, and antimony. It does not conduct hedging and mainly adjusts inventory. It believes that the decline of lead prices is limited, but the medium - term trend is unclear [71][72][74]. - **Comprehensive Recycling Enterprise F**: A medium - sized comprehensive recycling enterprise with a designed annual comprehensive recycling capacity of 145,000 tons. It is still adjusting its production structure and currently estimates a lead production capacity of 70,000 tons per year. It mainly sources raw materials from the slag of copper and lead - zinc smelters and is facing difficulties in raw material procurement. It has a one - and - a - half - month raw material inventory due to recent commissioning and is waiting to produce finished products. The electrolytic lead cost is 500 - 600 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit is over 500 yuan/ton, with the main profit coming from copper and tin. It does not conduct hedging currently. The heavy - metal pollution incident had little impact, but there is a problem with the disposal of water slag [79][80][81]. - **Lead Oxide Enterprise G**: A lead oxide processing enterprise mainly producing red lead and yellow lead, with a monthly output of about 2,500 tons. It is currently producing based on sales, and terminal demand is moderately weak. It was operating at full capacity during the peak season after the Chinese New Year and is currently operating at about 80% capacity. It believes that demand will not improve until at least July. It uses electrolytic lead and secondary lead as raw materials in a 50:50 ratio, with a monthly raw material procurement of more than 2,000 tons. It has no long - term contracts. The raw material inventory can meet 1 - 10 days of use, and there is almost no finished product inventory. The cost is 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and it has maintained a small profit since the beginning of the year. It does not conduct hedging. The heavy - metal pollution incident had no impact, and environmental protection - related production cuts occur about once every two months. It does not expect a significant decline in lead prices, mainly due to raw material support [85][86][87].

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market is experiencing a slight decline, with the main contract down 0.62% and trading at 16,895.00 yuan, indicating a weak market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Jinrui Futures suggests that the lead price will fluctuate within the range of 16,700 to 17,200 yuan, supported by a decrease in overseas lead inventory and a warming macroeconomic environment [2]. - New Lake Futures emphasizes a range-bound trading strategy due to stable production from primary lead smelters and a decline in imported lead ore treatment charges [3]. - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures notes that the lead price is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation in the short term, influenced by delivery impacts and inventory pressures [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows stable production from primary lead smelters, while the recycling sector faces challenges with rising losses and low operating rates due to reduced battery scrap inventory [3]. - Demand for lead-acid batteries has increased post-holiday but remains below pre-holiday levels, contributing to downward pressure on orders during the off-season [3]. - Overall, the combination of seasonal demand weakness and reduced export activity creates significant upward pressure on lead prices, despite strong long-term cost support [3][4].

沪铅产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16935 | -35 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1989 | 11.5 | | 期货市场 | 06-07月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -15 | -15 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 71270 | 1935 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -2177 | 321 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 48250 | 957 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 49504 | 2718 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 253175 | 1375 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16750 | 0 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17010 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -185 | 35 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -3.71 | -9.66 | | | 铅精矿50%-60 ...

策变化带来的新增影响。操作上建议，沪铅主力合约2506在17000元/吨附近轻仓做空，止损17300元/吨， 免责声明 注意操作节奏及风险控制。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 然没有波动，但是依旧维持低位，因此对于后续再生铅和原生铅复工起到了部分影响。综上所述，沪铅价 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 格短期可能受到去库影响小幅反弹，但反弹高度预计有限，后续依旧受到需求影响高位回落，注意关税政 沪铅产业日报 2025-05-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16995 | 190 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1981.5 | 37 | | | 06-07月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -5 | -15 沪铅持仓量(日,手) ...

铅精矿加工费仍低位维持，富含计价金属价格波动较大，炼厂原料采买较谨慎；再生铅在原料偏紧及亏 损的背景下，安徽、江苏、江西等地炼厂减产，且新增产能延后投产，供应缩减。铅蓄电池企业开工小 幅恢复，但电池替换已步入尾声，经销商成品库存累计较多，存在库存压力。短期铅价基本面支撑较 强，宏观方面短期或暂无利好，铅价或震荡调整为主。 消息面 4月29日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铅注册仓单116625吨，注销仓单150650吨，减少3750吨；铅库存 267275吨，减少3750吨。 周二，上海市场驰宏铅16975-17005元/吨，对沪铅2505合约升水50-80元/吨；济金铅16925-16945元/吨， 对沪铅2505合约升水0-20元/吨；江浙地区金德铅报16925-16945元/吨，对沪铅2505合约升水0-20元/吨。 机构观点 中金财富期货： 4月29日，上期所沪铅期货仓单录得38398吨，较上一交易日增加427吨；最近一周，沪铅期货仓单累计 减少4348吨，减少幅度为10.17%；最近一个月，沪铅期货仓单累计减少24517吨，减少幅度为38.97%。 五矿期货： 铅矿库存录增，原生开工高企，废料库存有限， ...

Core Viewpoint - Lead prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, with the Shanghai lead index closing up 0.08% at 16,944 CNY/ton [1] Market Performance - As of last Friday, the London lead price increased by 12.5 to 1,950.5 USD/ton, with total positions at 148,500 lots [1] - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,875 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, resulting in a price difference of 25 CNY/ton [1] - The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,400 CNY/ton [1] Inventory and Supply - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded lead ingot futures inventory at 38,000 tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 48,800 tons [1] - LME lead ingot inventory stood at 277,900 tons, with 161,300 tons in canceled warrants [1] - The cash-3S contract basis was -21.19 USD/ton, and the 3-15 price difference was -70.3 USD/ton [1] Production and Demand - The primary smelting operating rate was recorded at 66.23%, with primary ingot factory inventory at 13,000 tons [1] - Recycled lead inventory was 76,000 tons, with weekly production of recycled lead ingots at 38,000 tons and factory inventory at 19,000 tons [1] - The operating rate of lead-acid batteries was 73.56% [1] Market Outlook - Overall, lead ore inventory is increasing, primary production remains high, and scrap inventory is limited, leading to pressure on recycling profits and some reduction in output from recycling plants [1] - The lead ingot factory inventory accumulation is faster than previous years due to extended holidays [1] - The mid-term outlook for the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,300 to 17,800, with short-term lead prices showing a weak oscillation [1]