Group 1 - Standard Chartered Bank's Wealth Solutions Department released the "2026 Global Market Outlook," suggesting that risk assets are expected to perform well due to easing global trade tensions, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, and the growth of artificial intelligence [1] - The bank recommends investors to overweight stocks and gold in their core investment portfolios, with a focus on technology, healthcare, and telecommunications sectors in China [1] - The general manager of Standard Chartered (China) emphasized that the global market is at a critical turning point, with geopolitical conflicts and discussions around AI bubbles gaining attention [1] Group 2 - In terms of bonds, Standard Chartered recommends overweighting emerging market USD government bonds and local currency government bonds, benefiting from moderate inflation and a dovish monetary policy stance [2] - For developed market bonds, the bank suggests underweighting investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds, while favoring 5 to 7-year bonds for their attractive balance between higher yields and managing fiscal and inflation risks [2] - In equities, Standard Chartered continues to favor global stocks, particularly in the US and Asia (excluding Japan), citing strong earnings growth and reduced geopolitical risks as supportive factors [2] Group 3 - In the foreign exchange market, Standard Chartered expects the US dollar index to peak around 100.5 in the next three months, with short-term support from cautious Fed policies and geopolitical risks [3] - The bank maintains an overweight position in gold, with target prices of $4,350 and $4,800 per ounce for the next three and twelve months, respectively, driven by ongoing demand from emerging market central banks [3] - For oil, Standard Chartered anticipates New York crude oil futures to remain around $61 and $60 per barrel in the next three and twelve months, respectively, with supply surplus limiting potential price rebounds from geopolitical risks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for broader asset allocation strategies to navigate uncertainties in the market, particularly as the global economy transitions into a new phase of asset pricing logic in 2026 [1] - Standard Chartered Bank's report indicates that risk assets are expected to outperform overall in 2026, driven by factors such as the rising probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy and easing global trade tensions [2][3] - The report highlights that while the overall environment for risk assets is favorable, significant performance disparities among different markets and asset classes are anticipated [3] Group 2 - From a macroeconomic perspective, the global economy is expected to continue its moderate recovery in 2026, with the US economy not likely to experience a hard landing, supported by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] - The report suggests that the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies among major economies is likely to improve, providing new growth momentum in the medium to long term [2] - In terms of asset allocation, the recommendation is to overweight equities while maintaining core positions in bonds, with a particular focus on US and Asian markets excluding Japan [3][4] Group 3 - The report indicates that the technology sector remains a focal point for investment, with a shift in investment logic from long-term narratives to a focus on current earnings certainty [4] - In the bond market, the recommendation is to focus on government bonds as a stabilizing core, favoring emerging market government bonds due to expected moderate inflation and a dovish monetary policy outlook [4] - The report also notes that the dollar is under pressure, with expectations of a weakening dollar impacting investment strategies, while gold is highlighted as a key hedging tool with a mid-term target price of $4,800 per ounce [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, all bond futures contracts closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts falling by 0.36%, 0.11%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively. The December manufacturing PMI exceeded market expectations, causing bond futures to decline. For commodity factors, overall returns were still positive last week, but due to external market disturbances, the volatility of commodity factor returns has increased. It is recommended that investors focus on commodity factors with long - term expected return capabilities and adopt a balanced allocation approach to prevent risks [6][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Market Review - Last week, all bond futures contracts closed down. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.36%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.07%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03%. The basis of each variety was differentiated, and the basis of the CTD bonds of the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds on the 31st was lower than the historical average of the same maturity. The December manufacturing PMI exceeded market expectations, with both supply and demand expanding simultaneously and new kinetic energy showing strong performance, leading to a decline in bond futures [6]. - In 2025, for the 10 - year treasury bond, the Sharpe ratios of the basis factor, risk assets, and member positions were 1.68, 1.93, and 0.59 respectively; for the 5 - year treasury bond, the Sharpe ratios of high - frequency capital flow, intraday volume - price, risk assets, member positions, and basis factor were 2.51, 2.27, 1.71, 1.33, and 0.78 respectively; for the 2 - year treasury bond, the Sharpe ratios of high - frequency capital flow, basis factor, intraday volume - price, and member positions were 2.45, 1.82, 1.59, and 0.82 respectively [6][21][22]. 3.2 Commodity CTA Factor and Tracking Strategy Performance 3.2.1 Commodity Factor Performance - In the last week of 2025, domestic commodities fluctuated greatly, with a relatively balanced number of rising and falling varieties. Gold, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and tin fell by more than 3%, while silver had large fluctuations but was almost flat for the week. Nickel, glass, and methanol rose by more than 3%. The overall return of commodity factors was still positive, with term structure, volume - price trend, and long - term spot value factors showing profitability. The return of the position - trading volume ranking factor, which reflects market trading sentiment, decreased significantly last week, and the return of the volatility factor also decreased slightly. Due to external market disturbances, the volatility of commodity factor returns has increased. It is recommended that investors focus on commodity factors with long - term expected return capabilities, avoid actively increasing trading cycles and predicting directions, and adopt a balanced allocation approach to prevent risks [29][31][32]. 3.2.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - **CWFT Strategy**: Annualized return of 9.2%, Sharpe ratio of 1.58, Calmar of 1.05, maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, recent weekly return of 0.75%, and year - to - date return of 4.52%. Last week, it held 24 varieties with a net position of 22.1%, total position return of - 0.2%, and a winning rate of 45.8%. This week, it holds 24 varieties with a net position of 20.8%, and one variety needs to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 18.7% [30][37]. - **C_frontnext & Short Trend Strategy**: Annualized return of 11.3%, Sharpe ratio of 1.72, Calmar of 1.69, maximum drawdown of - 6.72%, recent weekly return of 0.08%, and year - to - date return of 3.94%. Last week, it held 24 varieties with a net position of - 8.2%, total position return of - 0.2%, and a winning rate of 58.3%. This week, it holds 24 varieties with a net position of 9.9%, and one variety needs to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 64.8% [30][39]. - **Long CWFT & Short CWFT Strategy**: Annualized return of 12.1%, Sharpe ratio of 1.36, Calmar of 0.92, maximum drawdown of - 13.07%, recent weekly return of 1.94%, and year - to - date return of 0.73%. Last week, it held 24 varieties with a net position of 65.2%, total position return of 0.2%, and a winning rate of 50.0%. This week, it holds 24 varieties with a net position of 60.7%, and one variety needs to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 25.4% [30][41]. - **CS XGBoost Strategy**: Annualized return of 6.0%, Sharpe ratio of 1.00, Calmar of 0.36, maximum drawdown of - 16.76%, recent weekly return of - 0.17%, and year - to - date return of - 9.21%. Last week, it held 24 varieties with a net position of 0.0%, total position return of - 0.1%, and a winning rate of 45.8%. This week, it holds 24 varieties with a net position of 0.0%, and one variety needs to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 51.3% [30][43]. - **RuleBased TS Sharp - combine Strategy**: Annualized return of 11.9%, Sharpe ratio of 1.55, Calmar of 1.43, maximum drawdown of - 8.26%, recent weekly return of - 0.24%, and year - to - date return of 10.15%. Last week, it held 46 varieties with a net position of 5.0%, total position return of - 0.6%, and a winning rate of 37.0%. This week, it holds 46 varieties with a net position of 30.9%, and two varieties need to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 50.6% [30][44]. - **RuleBased TS XGB - combine Strategy**: Annualized return of 11.9%, Sharpe ratio of 2.07, Calmar of 2.64, maximum drawdown of - 4.49%, recent weekly return of 0.04%, and year - to - date return of 8.27%. Last week, it held 46 varieties with a net position of - 4.6%, total position return of - 0.1%, and a winning rate of 39.1%. This week, it holds 46 varieties with a net position of - 10.9%, and two varieties need to be rolled over, with a total turnover capital ratio of 45.0% [30][46]. - **CS strategies, EW combine Strategy**: Annualized return of 12.6%, Sharpe ratio of 1.78, Calmar of 1.70, maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, recent weekly return of 0.88%, and year - to - date return of - 2.11% [30]. - Among the above six strategies, the Long CWFT & Short CWFT strategy performed best last week with a return of 1.94%, and the CWFT strategy performed best since 2025 with a return of 4.52%. The equal - weighted composite strategy of the above cross - sectional strategies (equal - weighted weekly returns) has an annualized return of 12.6%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.78, a Calmar of 1.70, a maximum drawdown of - 7.38%, a recent weekly return of 0.88%, and a year - to - date return of - 2.11% [51].

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have reached record highs due to geopolitical concerns and inflation worries stemming from the tariff war [1] - Gold's price peaked at $4,549 per ounce and silver at $83.62, prompting higher projections from market analysts [1] Market Trends - Historically, surges in gold and silver prices indicate the beginning of a new market cycle rather than the end of an existing one [2] - The current rally in precious metals is compared to the market behavior observed in mid-2020, where monetary easing led to increased liquidity and a flow of capital into safe-haven assets [3] Investment Behavior - Gold is viewed as a hedge against U.S. dollar devaluation, reacting more swiftly than stocks, while silver has both monetary and industrial value, typically following gold's price movements [4] - Following the March 2020 market crash, gold rose from $1,450 to $2,075 per ounce, and silver increased from $12 to $29 as the Federal Reserve injected liquidity [5] Capital Rotation - The initial rally in precious metals did not immediately trigger a rise in risk assets like Bitcoin, which remained in the $9,000-$12,000 range until after precious metals peaked [6] - This capital rotation signifies a shift from fear-driven positioning to growth-driven investment, reflecting similarities to the market cycle of 2020 [7]

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 12月25日，近期全球宏观经济环境错综复杂，避险资产与风险资产的走势分化愈发显著。NCE平台表 示，从宏观货币供应量（M2）的角度来看，黄金正处于一个具有跨时代意义的转折点。目前金价所面 临的阻力区间不仅是2011年的高点镜像，更是在向20世纪70年代以来尘封近50年的历史关口发起冲击。 在历史数据的回溯中，金价曾在70年代末通过数倍的涨幅才彻底冲破当时的供应量瓶颈。相关分析认 为，目前的市场情绪正试图复制那一时期的辉煌。NCE平台表示，尽管名义金价已从2011年的1800美元 攀升至如今的4500美元附近，但由于全球货币存量的剧增，黄金在实际购买力坐标中才刚刚触及那道沉 重的"天花板"。 12月25日，近期全球宏观经济环境错综复杂，避险资产与风险资产的走势分化愈发显著。NCE平台表 示，从宏观货币供应量（M2）的角度来看，黄金正处于一个具有跨时代意义的转折点。目前金价所面 临的阻力区间不仅是2011年的高点镜像，更是在向20世纪70年代以来尘封近50年的历史关口发起冲击。 在历史数据的回溯中，金价曾在70年代末通过数倍的涨幅才彻底冲破当时的供应量瓶颈。 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Macro and Commodity Weekly Report - Report Author: Wang Jing - Release Date: December 22, 2025 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Market Summary - Overseas, Japan's interest rate hike was uneventful, and the competition for the Fed Chair heated up. The market showed a dull performance approaching the year - end. Investors were cautious, the VIX index declined slightly, and risk - assets were mixed. Global stocks and commodities mostly fell, A - shares oscillated and pulled back, and the BDI index continued to decline. Commodities were under pressure with internal style transformation. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals weakened, oil prices remained weak, and the black series rebounded strongly [5][8]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded with short - term weakness and long - term strength. Stock indices oscillated and were mostly down, with the growth - style stocks underperforming value - style stocks, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rising against the trend. The domestic commodity sectors showed mixed performance. The weekly change of the Wind Commodity Index was 1.5%, with 5 out of 10 commodity sub - indices rising and 5 falling. The black series was strong, with the coal, coke, steel, and ore and non - metallic building materials sectors rising over 4%. The chemical sector followed, while precious metals barely rose, and soft commodities were nearly flat. Other sectors fell, especially the oilseeds, grains, and agricultural products sectors. Non - ferrous metals turned down, and the energy sector continued to slump [5][14]. - In the futures market capital aspect, the overall capital of the commodity futures market slightly flowed out. The agricultural products and soft commodities sectors saw obvious capital inflows, while many sectors had capital outflows, with significant outflows in the non - metallic building materials, energy, and grain sectors [16]. 2. Volatility and Interest Rate Expectations - The volatility of the international CRB commodity index slightly increased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a small upward volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index declined. By sector, the volatility of commodity futures sectors was mixed, with obvious volatility declines in the energy and oilseeds sectors and notable increases in the non - ferrous and soft commodities sectors [6][22]. - According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in January was 75.2%, little changed from last week's 72.7%. The probability of a 25 - bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remained below 30%. The market expected 1 - 3 rate cuts in 2026 [6]. 3. Upcoming Events - Due to the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, macro - economic data is scarce this week. The focus will be on a small amount of US economic data, especially GDP data. The initial estimate of US Q3 GDP will be released on December 23. Investors will assess the US economic performance and look for clues about the Fed's next rate - cut time. In addition, investors will seek guidance on the Bank of Japan's policy path from Governor Ueda Kazuo's speech on December 25 and the release of the meeting's opinion summary on December 29. The US stock market will close three hours early on December 24 and be closed on December 25 [7]. 4. Fed Chair Candidates - Kevin Hassett, the "insider" most likely to be nominated, is an economic policy "spokesperson" and political ally of Trump. He publicly supports rate cuts and has criticized the Fed's past policies [70]. - Kevin Warsh, the "returner" favored by Wall Street, has Fed experience and is strongly supported by the financial community. He has publicly advocated rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [71]. - Christopher Waller, the "dark horse" with solid policy experience, is a current Fed governor. He has rational and consistent policy discussions on rate cuts and has promoted conservative reforms within the Fed [72]. 5. Other Key Information - US inflation data for November was lower than expected, with the CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and the core CPI rising 2.6%. Many economists were puzzled by this, and the data was affected by the government shutdown [77]. - On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%. However, Governor Ueda Kazuo's cautious remarks on policy prospects pressured the yen, and the lack of a clear future rate - hike schedule confused investors. The market expects the Bank of Japan's future tightening to be gradual [84]. - This week's key economic data and events include UK Q3 GDP final value, US Q3 GDP initial estimate, and speeches from central bank governors [90].

Core Viewpoint - iCapital forecasts that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury will trade within the range of 4.0%-4.5% by 2026, potentially reaching the upper limit in the second half of the year [1] Group 1 - The report indicates that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate within the stated range at least until the beginning of 2026 [1] - A worsening deficit outlook could lead to yields rising to 4.5% [1] - This increase in yields may exert pressure on risk assets and capital market activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is viewing this week as a small "reset" of the U.S. macro narrative, with employment and inflation data set to be released in a narrow timeframe, potentially leading to a rapid repricing of interest rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last week and is expected to lower them again in 2026, but the market anticipates at least two more rate cuts next year [1] - If the data is mixed or slightly weaker than expected, the narrative of a soft landing will remain intact, but it may not be sufficient to trigger a significant risk-on sentiment [1] Group 2: Risks and Market Reactions - The real risk lies in a hawkish surprise; if inflation or employment data comes in hotter than expected, yields will rise, impacting risk assets, particularly long-duration growth stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have rebounded from their lowest closing levels in two months, driven by overall optimism in the financial markets, despite ongoing concerns about oversupply in the oil market [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.5% in the previous trading day but subsequently recovered to around $62 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices approached $58 per barrel [1][3]. - Year-to-date, oil prices have declined by nearly 20% due to concerns over oversupply [1][3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reiterated its expectation of unprecedented oversupply in the oil market, although it slightly downgraded its forecast from the previous month, noting that global oil inventories have reached a four-year high [1][3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - The optimistic sentiment in the market has helped offset the bearish outlook for oil prices, with traders willing to increase their risk exposure [1][3]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent U.S. seizure of a supertanker near Venezuela's coast and new sanctions against Venezuelan officials, may provide some support for oil prices [1][4]. - The situation in Venezuela is seen as a new phase of pressure from the Trump administration aimed at cutting off oil revenue to President Nicolás Maduro, although it is not expected to significantly alter the overall market dynamics unless it leads to supply disruptions [4]. Group 3: Supply Recovery - Brazil's oil production is recovering from a previous shutdown that had reduced its output by over 300,000 barrels per day [4]. - Brazil is the largest oil supplier in Latin America and is among the key new sources of oil supply alongside the U.S., Canada, Guyana, and Argentina [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and unexpected announcement of short - bond purchases have ignited the enthusiasm for long - liquidity in the overseas market, which is beneficial to risk assets [2]. - The domestic A - share market showed certain resilience yesterday, and in the short term, it will be repaired to some extent due to the overnight overseas influence. The market will maintain a volatile tone in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to layout for the spring market next year during the volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - The Fed's December interest rate decision: It will cut interest rates by 25 basis points with 3 dissenting votes, buy $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days, and the median of the dot - plot maintains the expectation of one interest rate cut in each of the next two years. Powell said that the economy's development could be observed, no one expected an interest rate hike, and the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range. The bond - buying scale will remain high in the coming months [4]. - Trump criticized Powell after the Fed's interest rate cut, saying the cut was too small and could be doubled, and the rate should be the lowest globally [4]. - Trump stated that the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker near Venezuela, claiming the move was legal [5]. - Meta is fully shifting to a closed - source model and integrating third - party models such as Alibaba's Qwen during training [5]. - The Ministry of Finance announced that the special treasury bonds due in 2025 will be rolled over at the same amount without increasing the fiscal deficit [6]. - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month [6]. - The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the Chinese economy in 2025 [7]. - Foreign media reported that China is considering restricting access to NVIDIA's H200 chips, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded [8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the daily limit range of the silver futures AG2602 contract to 15%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 16%, and the margin ratio for general positions to 17% from the close of trading on December 12, 2025 [8]. - The China Coast Guard vessel formation patrolled in the territorial waters of the Diaoyu Islands on December 10 [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - **Futures Market Performance**: Different contracts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index showed various closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, and price change ratios, with different basis, premium/discount rates, and annualized premium/discount rates. The contract delivery dates and remaining times also vary [11]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly net positions, and net position changes of different contracts of the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are presented. The total trading volume, trading value, open interest, and related changes of all contracts are also provided [12]. - **Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the basis of each contract and the inter - period spreads of different indices, including the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500, which reflect the historical data trends of these indicators [13][18][22] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - **Spot Market Performance**: The current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading values, price - to - earnings ratios, and other data of various indices such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others are presented. The data of different industries are also included, including upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, and other sectors [36]. - **Market Style Impact**: The impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions is analyzed [37][38]. - **Valuation and Other Charts**: There are charts showing the valuations of important indices and Shenwan industries, as well as the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading value changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading value [39][42][45] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - **Charts**: There are charts showing the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, which reflect the historical data trends of these liquidity - related indicators [52][53]