对于日本官员而言，150的重要关口在心理和政治上都十分敏感。此前，日本官员曾警告或干预货币市 场，因为日元跌破该点位会增加进口成本，加剧家庭的生活成本危机。 日元疲软也再次唤起了特朗普最喜欢的老调重弹：日本以牺牲美国为代价，从低估的货币中获益。 如今，随着安倍的"门徒"——高市早苗即将执掌全球第四大经济体，同样的担忧可能再次浮出水面。 高市早苗被普遍认为是"安倍经济学"的拥护者，该经济策略主张宽松货币政策、财政支出和结构性改 革。在去年执政的自民党总裁选举中，她批评了日本央行加息并增强日元的计划。 市场对此做出了反应，出现了所谓的"高市交易"，将日经225指数推向历史新高，美元兑日元汇率升破 150大关。 多年来，美国总统特朗普一直指责日本从事"不公平贸易行为"，这一批评可以追溯到他还是房地产大亨 的时候。 上周五，特朗普再次点名日本，声称东京通过削弱日元以获取不公平的贸易优势。"我曾打电话给日本 领导人，告诉他们不能继续贬值货币，"他说。 然而，分析师表示，高市早苗可能会在经济政策上谨慎行事，以避免与华盛顿关系紧张。 据报道，时任日本首相石破茂在日本国会表示，日本并未推行所谓的"货币贬值政策"，包括已故的安 ...

中信证券研报指出，我国国庆假期期间降息交易仍是海外市场主线，市场对美联储降息预期无明显变 化，美股和美元指数小幅上涨、美债小幅波动、金价再创新高。美国政府如期停摆，9月非农就业数据 延期发布，9月ISM-PMI和"小非农"ADP共同显示美国经济继续温和降温的趋势。我们延续此前观点， 预计美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上分别再次降息25bps。当地时间10月4日，高市早苗当选日本自 民党总裁，预计她将于10月15日左右接任日本首相。高市的政策主张为"负责任的扩张性财政政策+谨 慎加息"，市场对应出现日股上涨、日债曲线陡峭化和日元贬值的"高市交易"。我们延续此前观点，预 计日银今年四季度可能加息25bps。10月7日，日本30Y国债拍卖结果显示目前市场对高市早苗可能会执 行的"宽财政"担忧尚且有限。我们预计，在此情形下，短期内日股在"高市交易"中仍有不错表现。 ...

资料图 由于市场担忧日本自民党总裁高市早苗重视的积极财政与宽松货币政策，投资者持续卖出日 元，出现了所谓的"高市交易" …… 在10月7日的纽约外汇市场上，日元对美元汇率一度跌至1美元兑152日元区间，这是自2月中 旬以来约8个月来首次触及该水平。由于市场担忧日本自民党总裁高市早苗重视的积极财政与 宽松货币政策，投资者持续卖出日元，出现了所谓的"高市交易"。 在日元兑欧元的汇率方面，日元更创下历史新低。一度触及1欧元兑177.10日元区间，为 1999年欧元诞生以来的日元贬值、欧元升值水平。 高市的经济智囊之一、前内阁官房参与本田悦朗6日接受彭博社采访时表示："如果日元兑美 元超过150日元，或许就稍有些过头了"。受此言论影响，7日日元一度回升至150日元区间， 但进入纽约交易时段后，日元卖盘再次占据主导。 推动日元持续贬值的背景，是市场普遍认为日本的宽松金融环境仍将持续。本田在采访中也 显示出认识称，日本银行（央行）在10月29日至30日召开的货币政策会议上"要加息恐怕很 难"。 高市早在去年的自民党总裁选举中就曾表示："现在加息是愚蠢的"，以此牵制日银的尽快加 息。她在10月4日的发言中再次强调："（对金 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, with limited short-term economic impact expected, as most losses are projected to be recovered post-shutdown[1] - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone rose to 6.3% in September, higher than the expected 6.2%[25] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, is expected to continue a loose fiscal and monetary policy, impacting market dynamics positively[28] Employment Data - In September, ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 52,000[6] - Revelio Labs reported an increase of 60,000 jobs in September, slightly above market expectations, indicating a mixed employment landscape[6] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets saw gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.77% and the Nasdaq up 1.24% from September 30 to October 6[2] - The Japanese Nikkei 225 index surged by 6.70% following the election of Kishi Sanae, reflecting investor optimism[2] Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have increased, with market probabilities for a 25 basis point cut in October and December rising significantly[23] - The European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to maintaining current interest rates despite rising unemployment and inflation data[25] Commodity Prices - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with gold rising by 2.80% and silver by 3.95% during the same period[2] - Oil prices experienced a slight decline of 1.09%, while natural gas prices increased by 1.63%[2] Risks and Uncertainties - There is a risk of an unexpected degree of economic recession overseas, which could impact global markets[2]

自民党总裁高市早苗就任带动的股价上涨仍在持续，盘中一度涨幅超过580点，但投资者对市 场过热的担忧也带来了持续的卖压，涨势逐渐放缓…… 10月7日，东京股市的日经平均股指连续第四个交易日上涨，收于4万7950.88点，比前一交 易日上涨6.12点（涨幅0.01%）。这是连续三天刷新历史最高收盘价。股市延续了前一日美 国股市科技股上涨的势头。自民党总裁高市早苗就任带动的股价上涨仍在持续，盘中一度涨 幅超过580点，但投资者对市场过热的担忧也带来了持续的卖压，日经股指涨势逐渐放缓，甚 至出现小幅回落的情况。 Nagomi Capital投资总部部长村松一之表示："'高市交易'至少会持续一周，可以说是蜜月 期"。他认为，自民党新领导班子在10月7日就任后，将维持股市的热情。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）田村峻久、佐藤惠里菜 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 视频号推荐内容： 岩井Cosmo证券首席策略师嶋田和昭对目前的股市上涨评价道："即便觉得上涨速度过快，也 不得不跟随市场买入，否则就会错失机会"。这反映出投资者 ...

10月6日，日股飙升。 日经225指数收盘上涨4.8%，报47944.76点；东证指数涨3.1%，报3226.06点；均创历史收盘新高。 美元兑日元日内涨幅达2%，现报150.43，续创8月1日以来新高。日本30年期国债收益率触及3.29%，创历史新高。 据上海证券报，日前当选日本自民党首位女总裁的高市早苗支持宽松的财政和货币政策，外界认为其上台或加剧对债券供应增加的担忧，同时降低了对日 本央行本月加息的预期。 01 高市早苗当选 自民党首位女总裁 在第二轮投票中，295名自民党国会议员各持一票，日本47个都道府县自民党支部联合会各有一票，共计342票，得票多者当选。最终，在341张有效票中， 高市获185票，高于小泉的156票，当选自民党第29任总裁。 高市现年64岁，是日本右翼政客代表人物之一，在去年自民党总裁选举决胜轮中败给现任首相石破茂。她主张实施更加积极的财政政策，并提高防卫开 支。 当地时间4日18时，日本自民党新当选总裁高市早苗举行记者会。 高市早苗表示，其当选自民党新任总裁，将会给自民党带来改变，将致力于恢复民众对于自民党的信任，并将就高物价等经济问题、外交、国际安全保障 问题在党内进行充分讨 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks experienced a slight pullback after reaching new highs, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.68% to 26,957.77 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.09% [1] - The market saw a significant rise prior to the pullback, with the Hang Seng Index gaining over 500 points on October 2, surpassing the 27,000-point mark, marking a four-year high [3] Sector Performance - Precious metals performed exceptionally well, with China Silver Group rising 18.57%, and other companies like Tan Gold Mining and Zhu Feng Gold also seeing substantial gains of 15.38% and 15.13% respectively [3] - The semiconductor sector emerged as a market leader, driven by breakthroughs in domestic chip technology and increasing global computing power demand, with companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor seeing significant stock price increases [3] Policy and Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's "Tech Enterprise Line" policy has facilitated listings for tech and biopharmaceutical companies, enhancing market vitality [3] - Continuous inflow of southbound funds has provided liquidity support to the Hong Kong market [3] Japanese Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index rose 4.75% to a record closing high of 47,944.76 points, influenced by the election of new Liberal Democratic Party leader, Sanae Takaichi, which is expected to positively impact the Japanese stock market [4][6] - Following Takaichi's election, there is a growing sentiment among institutions to bet on stocks while shorting Japanese government bonds, particularly long-term bonds [6] A-Share Market Expectations - Despite the A-share market being closed for the National Day holiday, strong overseas market performance and capital flows have raised expectations for a positive opening after the holiday [7] - Historical data indicates a stable "National Day effect" in the A-share market, with median returns of +0.94% and +2.20% for the first and fifth trading days post-holiday, respectively [7] Investment Sentiment - Analysts remain optimistic about the Hong Kong market's future despite short-term adjustments, citing a long-term bull market that began in Q4 of the previous year [8] - The key to post-holiday performance will depend on the sustainability of core sectors and the ability of capital to support them [8]

Market Performance - Japanese stock market surged on October 6, with the Nikkei 225 index closing up 4.8% at 47,944.76 points and the Topix index rising 3.1% to 3,226.06 points, both reaching historical closing highs [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 2% during the day, reaching 150.43, marking the highest level since August 1 [3] Political Developments - Sanae Takaichi was elected as the first female president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan, supporting expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, which may heighten concerns over increased bond supply and lower expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [4][5] - Takaichi's election is expected to lead to discussions on economic issues, high prices, and international security within the party [6] Economic Implications - Following Takaichi's victory, the Japanese capital market experienced a phenomenon termed "Takaichi trading," with bets on her election leading to bullish sentiment in stocks and bearish sentiment in Japanese government bonds, particularly long-term bonds [6] - Analysts predict that the yen may depreciate to the 150-160 range against the dollar, and the pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan is likely to slow down [7] Bond Market Reactions - The Japanese bond market showed significant volatility, with concerns over future fiscal expansion pushing long-term interest rates higher; the yield on 40-year government bonds surged by 14 basis points to 3.52% [8] - Takaichi's policies are expected to complicate the Bank of Japan's rate hike strategy, potentially leading to a flattening of the yield curve [8] Economic Challenges - Japan faces multiple pressures, including rising prices, a declining population, and economic stagnation, which complicate the political landscape and the ability of the new LDP president to establish a stable governance foundation [8][10] - A report indicated that 3,024 food items in Japan are expected to see price increases in October, following a previous surge in April, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan is expected to lead to significant changes in fiscal and monetary policies, potentially impacting the Japanese economy and financial markets [3][4]. Market Reactions - Following the election results, the Nikkei 225 index surged by 4.8%, closing at 47,944.76 points, while the Topix index rose by 3.1%, reaching 3,226.06 points, both marking historical closing highs [2]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 2% during the day, reaching 150.43, the highest level since August 1 [2]. - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds hit a record high of 3.29% [2]. Political Implications - Takaichi's election is seen as a move towards more aggressive fiscal policies and increased defense spending, which may raise concerns about increased bond supply and lower expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3][4]. - The upcoming extraordinary Diet session on October 15 will likely confirm Takaichi as the new Prime Minister, despite the LDP being a minority in both houses of the Diet [4]. Economic Challenges - Japan faces multiple economic pressures, including rising prices, a declining population, and economic stagnation, which complicate the political landscape for the new LDP president [6][7]. - A report indicated that 3,024 food items in Japan are expected to see price increases in October, following a previous surge in April [6]. - The manufacturing sector is also under pressure, with the PMI for September recorded at 48.4, indicating continued contraction [6]. Investor Sentiment - The market has already begun to react to Takaichi's anticipated policies, with a trend of "Takaichi trading" emerging, where investors bet on her election by buying stocks and shorting Japanese government bonds [5]. - Analysts predict that the yen may depreciate to the 150-160 range against the dollar, and the Bank of Japan's rate hike pace will likely slow down [5].

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 4.8%, closing at 47,944.76 points, while the Topix index rose by 3.1% to 3,226.06 points, both reaching historical closing highs [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 2%, reaching 150.43, marking the highest level since August 1 [3] Political Developments - Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president, Sanae Takaichi, supports expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, raising concerns about increased bond supply and lowering expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike this month [4][5] - Takaichi's election is expected to positively impact the Japanese stock market while putting pressure on the yen and long-term government bonds [6][7] Economic Indicators - Japan's bond market is experiencing volatility, with the 40-year government bond yield rising by 14 basis points to 3.52%, driven by concerns over future fiscal expansion [8] - A report indicates that 3,024 food items in Japan are expected to increase in price in October, following a previous increase of 4,225 items in April [9] Challenges Ahead - Japan faces multiple pressures, including high inflation, a declining population, and economic recession, which complicate the political landscape and stability [8][10] - The manufacturing sector continues to show signs of contraction, with the September PMI at 48.4, indicating ongoing challenges in economic activity [9]