当特朗普以格陵兰岛主权为由威胁对英法德等欧洲盟友加征关税时，按金融理论，市场本应剧烈波动 ——通胀升温、企业投资与股价回调、增长承压。但实际情况是：标普500期货仅跌超1%，欧洲股市跌 幅相近，黄金涨幅不足2%，投资者似乎并未将此视为"灾难"。 摘要今日周二(1月20日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1046元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1045.33元/ 克，跌幅0.10%，最高触及1047.55元/克，最低下探1043.14元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走 势。 今日周二(1月20日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1046元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1045.33元/克，跌 幅0.10%，最高触及1047.55元/克，最低下探1043.14元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 长期看，若西方因关税分裂，俄罗斯或趁虚而入，或欧洲重整军备成第三极，均对投资者不利。但当前 市场反应平淡，反映投资者对特朗普政策的"适应性"与对不确定性的"选择性忽视"。温顿集团数据显 示，二战初期英国股市先跌后涨，投资者曾误判局势;如今，外国股市已跑赢美国，美元走弱，《华尔 街日报》专栏作家Mackintosh认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential market reactions and implications of President Trump's threats to impose tariffs on European allies, highlighting the complexities of investor sentiment and the evolving global order [3][9]. Market Reactions - Following Trump's tariff threats, U.S. stock index futures fell by over 1%, while gold prices rose by nearly 2%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [10][12]. - The S&P 500 index futures and European stock markets experienced similar declines, reflecting a cautious market response [10]. Investor Sentiment - Investors may have become desensitized to Trump's tariff announcements, as previous threats did not lead to significant long-term economic impacts [11]. - The concept of "TACO trading" suggests that investors are betting on Trump backing down from his threats, given the uncertainty surrounding his policy decisions [11][12]. Potential Benefits - Some investors perceive potential benefits from increased military spending in Europe as a response to the tariff threats, which could positively impact defense stocks [12]. - European utility stocks have also seen gains due to a flight to safety, indicating a shift in investment strategies [12]. Historical Context - The article draws parallels to historical events, suggesting that investors often overlook immediate threats until they escalate into significant crises, as seen in the lead-up to World War I [12][13]. - Historical data indicates that markets can rebound quickly after initial shocks, as evidenced by the performance of the UK stock market during World War II [12][13]. Future Implications - The evolving global order may lead to increased attempts by other countries to decouple economically and militarily from the U.S., which could create more volatility in the markets [13]. - Investors are advised to remain flexible as the situation could either lead to a catastrophic breakdown or a resolution where Europe concedes to U.S. demands [13].

华尔街向来热衷于创造朗朗上口的英文缩写，以此概括交易逻辑，比如代表科技龙头的FANG（指的是 Facebook、亚马逊、Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet）、描述市场情绪的FOMO（错失恐惧）/YOLO（人 生苦短，及时行乐），还有戏谑关税政策的TACO（特朗普总是临阵退缩）。 如今，奈德・戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）首席美国策略师埃德・克利索尔德（Ed Clissold） 打算创造一个新名词——Big MAC交易，这个缩写对应的是"中期选举大战将至（Big Midterms Are Coming）"。他想用这个概念，概括他眼中2026年美股市场的核心主题：今年秋季国会选举前后的政策 走向及其影响。 Sevens Report创始人汤姆・埃塞耶（Tom Essaye）称，政府政策"乱象"是2026年市场面临的又一风险。 他担忧的是，市场对特朗普近期多次试图改写经济和商业政策的举动反应平淡，这或许释放出一个信 号：市场对政策细节的变动已趋于麻木。 "这是我们未来需要密切关注的风险，因为市场对政策不确定性的漠视，似乎正在助长本届政府的激进 倾向。"他在周一的报告中写道。 埃塞耶补 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tensions between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump, highlighting the implications of a criminal investigation into Powell and the broader concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Powell emphasizes the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates based on economic conditions rather than political pressure [3][6]. - A survey of 200 CEOs revealed that 71% believe the Trump administration has weakened the Federal Reserve's independence, and 80% think Trump's pressure on Powell to lower interest rates is not in the best interest of the U.S. [7]. - Despite these concerns, there has been a lack of public support from corporate leaders for Powell, which raises questions about the corporate sector's commitment to the Federal Reserve's independence [5][7]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Economic Impact - Trump has consistently pressured Powell to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, while Powell's team is tasked with balancing growth and stability [6]. - The article notes that Trump's disregard for central bank independence could lead to market panic and economic disaster, as highlighted by CNN's financial commentator [5]. - The reluctance of corporate leaders to publicly support Powell may stem from fears of retaliation, as illustrated by the example of Harley-Davidson facing backlash from Trump for its business decisions [9]. Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - The article suggests that the current political climate has shifted the focus of monetary policy from data-driven decisions to the personal preferences of the President, which could have long-term implications for economic stability [11]. - Powell's previous stance on inflation, which downplayed its structural nature during the pandemic, is criticized for contributing to the current economic challenges faced by many Americans [12]. - The article concludes that the lack of vocal support for Powell from the business community raises concerns about the future of monetary policy and its alignment with public interest [12].

杰德・埃勒布鲁克几乎彻夜未眠。 那是 4 月 2 日周三晚间，特朗普总统刚刚现身白宫玫瑰园，手持一块大幅公告牌，上面赫然写着他将对 全球多国征收的惩罚性关祱税率。华尔街迅速意识到，特朗普此次是动真格的 —— 他要打破这个他口 中对美国不公的全球贸易体系。 来源：环球市场播报 当晚与家人用餐时，乃至整夜，埃勒布鲁克都在琢磨后续走势。当时亚洲市场暴跌，一场全球范围的股 市崩盘就此拉开序幕。作为银资本管理公司的投资组合经理，埃勒布鲁克与团队次日一早便在圣路易斯 的办公室紧急集结，着手分析关祱政策对持仓股票的影响。当天股市抛售潮愈演愈烈，其持仓占比最大 的亚马逊股价暴跌近 10%。 和从东京到纽约的全球投资者一样，埃勒布鲁克在这场罕见的市场波动中，仓促地完成了一场 "动荡应 对速成课"。标普 500 指数一度逼近熊市边缘，随后市场情绪却迅速反转，触发了数十年来最快的股市 反弹之一，最终推动这一基准指数创下历史新高。市场给出的核心启示是：保持冷静、敢于逢低买入， 终有回报。 美国经济的起伏与人工智能热潮固然对市场影响深远，但 2025 年的诸多市场波动，根源大多指向白 宫。 加拿大银行信贷分析公司首席美国股票策略师艾琳 ...

Group 1 - The core narrative of the article highlights a shift from an initial "reactive response" to a more adaptive approach in the face of uncertainty, particularly in the context of global trade and economic policies [1] - Companies are increasingly diversifying their operations in Southeast Asia, with specific examples such as an Indonesian factory expected to commence production by February next year [1] - The article discusses the evolution of the global economic landscape, emphasizing that the global trade system and financial markets are adapting to complexities rather than merely reacting to shocks [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes a significant increase in global trust costs, driven by a shift in U.S. trade policy towards a "chicken game" strategy, where short-term gains are prioritized over long-term cooperation [4] - The European Union has strengthened its "anti-coercion tool," allowing for rapid non-tariff retaliatory measures, reflecting a broader trend of countries building their own "bargaining chips" in response to U.S. tactics [5] - The market is beginning to price in uncertainty, with investors recognizing that extreme threats often come with quick corrections, leading to a more resilient approach among companies [6] Group 3 - A new norm of "one-on-one" negotiations is emerging, with countries seeking partnerships outside of Washington, as seen in recent trade agreements between the EU and Indonesia [7] - The article anticipates that as the U.S. Supreme Court reviews the legality of "reciprocal tariffs," there may be a clearer legal framework for future policies, while the global economy continues to adapt and strengthen its resilience [7]

【导读】2025年，世界在变奏中寻找新的平衡 一、 全球9家主要央行降息 美联储结束缩表周期 2025年，包括美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）、欧洲中央银行（欧央行）、英国央行，以及澳大利亚央行、新西兰央行、加拿大央行、瑞典央行、挪威央 行和瑞士央行在内的9家主要央行选择降息。日本央行成为例外，在年初和年底先后两次上调了利率。 美联储继2024年开启降息周期后，2025年持续保持宽松政策，分别在2025年9月、10月、12月进行了三次幅度各为25个基点的降息。同时，美联储官员们 于10月会议官宣缩表终止计划，自12月1日起结束为期三年半的缩表行动。 二、 "DeepSeek时刻"令全球发现中国价值 2025年，以深度求索公司（DeepSeek）的通用人工智能模型和宇树科技在通用人形机器人领域的突破为代表，中国在前沿科技与先进制造行业取得了全 球瞩目的进展，展现了中国科技创新的潜力与实力。 中国证监会主席吴清在全国两会期间指出，人工智能是今年两会的热词，DeepSeek在全球人工智能领域脱颖而出，不仅使AI行业深受震撼，也让世界对 中国科技创新能力有了新的认识，带动了中国资产价值重估。 一级市场上，美元基金围绕硬科 ...

Group 1: Political and Economic Developments - Trump's return to the presidency has led to increased global uncertainty due to aggressive tariff policies aimed at reshaping the manufacturing landscape in the U.S. [2][3] - The U.S. stock and bond markets experienced significant volatility as a result of these tariff policies, prompting a shift in global capital strategies towards high-friction and high-inflation environments [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2025 did not lead to a decrease in long-term interest rates, which remained high due to expansive fiscal policies and rising national debt [10][11] Group 2: Commodity and Asset Market Trends - Gold prices surged to over $4500 per ounce, surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, indicating a shift in the traditional currency reserve system [4][5] - The MSCI global index reached historical highs, reflecting strong performance across various markets, particularly in technology and emerging markets [6][7] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum saw significant demand due to global energy transitions and infrastructure developments, highlighting a robust physical economy [6][7] Group 3: Technology Sector Dynamics - Nvidia's market capitalization exceeded $5 trillion, marking a pivotal moment in the AI infrastructure race, although concerns about the sustainability of its growth model emerged [8][9] - The tech sector faced volatility as investors shifted focus from speculative investments to evaluating actual profit growth, raising concerns about potential bubbles in AI investments [9] Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East saw a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, but underlying tensions remained, affecting global investment confidence in the region [14][15] - Military confrontations between India and Pakistan escalated, leading to significant disruptions in regional markets and highlighting the risks associated with geopolitical instability [16] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - The retirement of Warren Buffett from Berkshire Hathaway prompted a reevaluation of value investing principles in a rapidly changing market landscape dominated by technology [17][18] - The cryptocurrency market experienced a dramatic downturn after a period of growth, emphasizing the volatility and risks associated with emerging digital assets [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **2025 Review**: In 2025, Trump's reforms led to a weakening of the US dollar, and the difficulties in managing US dollar liquidity contributed to the rise of TACO trading. China maintained credit expansion and asset price prosperity due to the decline in external financial headwinds. However, the transmission from credit expansion to inflation was slow, and the economic structure showed a clear "virtual - real" divide [6][9]. - **2026 Outlook**: The key point in 2026 is whether the US can effectively maintain the stability of its yield curve. The pressure on US liquidity management may catalyze international cooperation and policy coordination. China's macro - policies aim to tap economic potential and expand domestic demand, promoting price recovery and the maturation of new productive forces [7]. - **2026 Asset Outlook**: In 2026, the operation of major asset classes will likely transition from the "recovery" to the "expansion" quadrant. The RMB is likely to appreciate with attention to the appreciation rhythm. Treasury bonds will remain in a volatile market. The stock market is expected to shift from valuation - driven to profit - driven, and domestic commodities will gradually bottom out and move upward [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - economic and Major Asset Performance Review 1.1 Global Economy - In 2025, the US dollar was initially strong under the "Trump trade" expectation but weakened due to challenges in the offshore financial system. The Fed's attempts to control the "loose" rhythm led to on - shore liquidity tensions. The difficulty in balancing US dollar liquidity formed the basis of TACO trading. The global economic cycle supported a slight weakening of the US dollar [9][10]. 1.2 Chinese Economy - China's economy in 2025 was characterized by the repair of credit factors. With a weakening US dollar index, China maintained a loose monetary policy and increased fiscal deficits. The steepening of the Chinese bond yield curve was significant for credit expansion. However, the transmission from credit to inflation was blocked, and the economic structure showed a "virtual - real" divide [16][17]. 1.3 Policy Framework - In 2025, complex geopolitical games and domestic economic policies were interlinked. The Fed adopted a gradual easing policy to avoid excessive weakness of the US dollar. China's macro - policies were introduced gradually, focusing on maintaining external balance and shifting towards "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" [23][28]. 2. Outlook for 2026 2.1 Policy Logic: US Policy Constraints 2.1.1 Fed's Constraints - The Fed faces increasing difficulty in controlling the yield curve. After the Silicon Valley Bank shock, the Fed tried to repair the inverted yield curve. However, in H2 2025, due to the low level of RRP, the Fed had to stop shrinking its balance sheet [30][31]. 2.1.2 US Fiscal Constraints - The US fiscal deficit is expected to remain at around 6% of GDP in 2026. The OBBBA - related tax - refund policy will widen the deficit gap in H1, but it may be offset by increased tariff revenues. The US Treasury may continue to issue more short - term bonds, and the Fed is expected to purchase over $400 billion of short - term bonds in 2026 [33][40]. 2.1.3 Summary - The Fed needs to cooperate with the US Treasury to maintain the stability of the yield curve. The management of the US Treasury yield curve is not only related to domestic policy trade - offs but also to international games and cooperation [47]. 2.2 Macro - game Coordinate System: Yield Curve and US Dollar Combination 2.2.1 Yield Curve Steepening Scenarios - **Scenario A (Steep Yield Curve, Weak US Dollar)**: A controllable steep yield curve and a weak US dollar can bring positive effects such as alleviating inflation pressure and promoting global economic recovery. However, an uncontrollable steep yield curve may lead to debt selling pressure. The positive scenario is of high probability, while the negative scenario is of low probability [50][57][62]. - **Scenario B (Steep Yield Curve, Strong US Dollar)**: If the Fed successfully controls the yield curve and the confidence in the US dollar is restored, it can lead to a positive scenario. A crisis - mode scenario is of low probability [63][65]. 2.2.2 Yield Curve Flattening Scenarios - **Scenario C (Flat Yield Curve, Strong US Dollar)**: A controllable flat yield curve and a strong US dollar can reflect the Fed's management ability. A rapid inversion of the yield curve is a low - probability negative scenario [66][68][69]. - **Scenario D (Flat Yield Curve, Weak US Dollar)**: A smooth decline of the yield curve and a weak US dollar can benefit non - US economies. A rapid inversion of the yield curve and a weak US dollar is a low - probability negative scenario [70][72]. 2.2.3 Summary - Managing the yield curve is crucial in 2026. The benchmark scenarios are those where the US Treasury bond can strengthen steadily or the yield curve steepens significantly in H1 and then declines controllably [73][74][76]. 2.3 Cycle Operation: Sino - US Policy Interaction from a Cycle Perspective 2.3.1 Cycle Positioning - Since 2023, the global inventory cycle has lost elasticity. In 2024, the US inventory cycle started to bottom out, and in 2025, China's inventory cycle also reached a low point. In 2026, the global cycle will progress further, and China's inventory cycle will play a more important role [77][80][84]. 2.3.2 Cycle Mechanism - The pressure from China's real - estate cycle and the US's restrictive policies has affected the global inventory cycle. The increasing pressure on US financial market liquidity has promoted Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and laid the foundation for geopolitical and economic stability in 2026 [89][91][94]. 2.3.3 China's Policy Choices - In 2026, China's macro - policies will remain positive, focusing on tapping economic potential and integrating policies. The main focuses are "dual - carbon leadership", "anti - involution", and stabilizing the real - estate market [95]. 3. Major Asset Classes 3.1 Major Asset Coordinate System - The coordinate system for major assets is constructed from the dimensions of real supply - demand and price elasticity. In 2026, major assets are likely to move from the lower - left quadrant to the upper - left quadrant, and the management of the US yield curve and the trend of the US dollar will affect the process [97][100][104]. 3.2 Analysis of Various Assets - **Exchange Rate**: The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately first and then enter a range - bound fluctuation, with a possible range of 6.7 - 7.2. Key factors include the US dollar index and the implementation of domestic demand - stimulating policies [105]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds will remain in a volatile market. If the interest rate is cut by 10bp, the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9%. In an optimistic scenario, with a 20bp cut, the range will be 1.55% - 1.85% [106]. - **Stock Market**: The stock market is expected to shift from valuation - driven to profit - driven, with a positive outlook of oscillating upward [107]. - **Commodities**: The commodity market will operate in a pattern of "liquidity support, cycle resonance, and structural differentiation". It may experience wide - range fluctuations in H1 and a "re - inflation" - driven recovery in H2 if policies are effective [115].

Group 1 - The report identifies four macro clues for 2025: TACO trading, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut rhythm, AI commercialization, and China's export resilience [8] - It suggests that in 2026, the domestic GDP growth is expected to shift from external demand to investment driven by central finance, alongside a price recovery leading to a restocking cycle [8] - The report emphasizes that the main industry themes for 2026 will focus on "anti-involution" and "hard technology" sectors, highlighting coal, chemicals, construction materials, and power equipment as key areas for potential profit recovery [8] Group 2 - The asset allocation outlook for 2026 recommends a diversified approach, favoring equities and commodities over interest rate bonds, with an overweight on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] - The report notes that the current market is driven by institutional funds rather than retail investors, indicating a preference for sectors with high profitability and fundamental improvements [8] - It highlights that the active equity funds are heavily concentrated in the TMT sector, with over 40% of holdings, leaving room for "anti-involution" and domestic demand recovery sectors [8] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of various asset classes in 2025, noting that precious metals and Asia-Pacific equities led the gains, while bonds showed lackluster performance [10][11] - It indicates that the dollar index weakened by approximately 8.3%, and the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased by about 3.01% [11] - The report also highlights that the VIX index experienced significant fluctuations due to trade policy uncertainties, impacting market sentiment and asset performance [20]