TACO交易

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“从ICU到KTV”后,美股多头已“无所畏惧”?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-12 01:26
Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investors have shown remarkable resilience to various shocks, including inflation concerns, tariff threats, and geopolitical conflicts, maintaining high levels of confidence in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - Despite escalating trade threats from Trump, including a proposed 35% tariff on Canadian goods and a 50% tariff on copper, speculative sentiment remains high, with Bitcoin surpassing $118,000 and stock markets near record highs [1]. - The S&P 500 index closed slightly below its record high, indicating that traders are less fearful even as indicators of market pressure rise [2]. - Columbia Threadneedle Investments' Josh Kutin noted that the market has remained indifferent to issues like tariffs and geopolitical tensions, suggesting a lack of negative reaction from investors [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The "TACO" trade, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," reflects a growing belief among investors that the government will retract tariff threats, allowing for increased stock exposure [3]. - Strong momentum and relatively low volatility have led to bullish signals in multiple investment portfolios, encouraging traders to seek tactical opportunities [3]. Group 3: Concerns and Warnings - JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about complacency in the market, suggesting that the current environment may be a pressure test for investors [5]. - Man Group's Kristina Hooper warned that the market rally may have gone too far, and the unresolved tariff situation poses challenges for investors trying to model potential outcomes [5].
KVB plus:美联储加息概率达50%!市场对关税过于松懈
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 01:32
KVB官网发现周四,特朗普一系列新的关税警告如石沉大海,并未如 4 月宣布 "对等关税" 时那般在市场中掀起惊 涛骇浪。当日,标普 500 和纳斯达克指数收盘时仍强势上扬,双双创下新高。科技巨头英伟达表现格外亮眼,收盘 市值首次突破 4 万亿美元大关,展现出强大的市场影响力。与此同时,比特币价格也一路飙升,创下历史新高,似 乎全然不受关税政策的阴霾笼罩。 汇丰策略师马克斯・凯特纳(Max Kettner)带领的团队表示,风险资产有望持续获得支撑,二季度财报季和市场 对关税敏感度的降低将成为关键催化剂。"除投资者仓位仍具支撑外,我们认为市场对二季度财报季的悲观预期被 夸大。美元走弱、公司盈利指引改善及低预期足以带来正面意外。在本周再度宣布关税措施后,任何降息举措也可 能被市场解读为利好。" 投资者正紧锣密鼓地为即将到来的第二季度财报季做准备,密切关注特朗普 4 月 2 日启动的关税战对企业盈利的潜 在影响。Granite Wealth Management 董事总经理布鲁斯・扎罗(Bruce Zaro)表示:"分析师对标普 500 公司普遍持 怀疑态度,纷纷下调预期,主要基于关税及其带来的不确定性。但我们认为, ...
“华尔街一哥”:美联储加息概率达50%!市场对关税过于松懈
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-10 22:58
Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing resilience despite ongoing tariff threats from Trump, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, and Nvidia's market cap surpassing $4 trillion. Bitcoin also hit an all-time high [2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, warns that the market has become complacent regarding Trump's tariff threats, suggesting that investors believe he will back down as he has in the past [3]. - Dimon emphasizes the importance of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which could stabilize tariffs and provide a framework for future negotiations [3]. - The market is currently preparing for the upcoming second-quarter earnings season, with concerns about the impact of tariffs on corporate profits [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Dimon indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates is higher than market expectations, suggesting a 40% to 50% chance compared to the market's 20% [5]. - He attributes this higher probability to inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs, immigration policies, and budget deficits, alongside global trade restructuring [5]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 is critical, as market participants are divided on the likelihood of rate cuts later in the year [4][5]. Group 3: Corporate Earnings Expectations - Analysts are skeptical about the earnings outlook for S&P 500 companies, with expectations for only a 2% growth in profits, the weakest in two years, primarily due to tariff uncertainties [8]. - Despite the low expectations, some analysts believe that growth-oriented companies, particularly in the tech sector, will still deliver strong results [8]. - There is a belief that the market's pessimism regarding the earnings season may be overstated, with potential positive surprises from improving corporate guidance and a weaker dollar [8].
摩根大通CEO戴蒙:我不喜欢使用TACO交易这个词,因为我认为特朗普在解放日之后“退缩”是正确的选择。
news flash· 2025-07-10 14:58
Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon expressed his disapproval of the term "TACO trading," stating that he believes Trump's retreat after Liberation Day was the correct choice [1] Group 1 - Jamie Dimon emphasizes the importance of terminology in trading practices, indicating a preference for clarity over colloquial terms [1] - The statement reflects a broader sentiment within the financial industry regarding the implications of political decisions on market strategies [1]
“TACO交易”成信仰!特朗普真的会乖乖“认怂”?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-10 14:14
AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 衡量标普500指数短期预期波动率的波动率指数(VIX)已降至16,远低于约20的长期均值;美国国债市场预期波动率指数也接近 三年低点。与此同时,英伟达(NVDA)引领科技股飙升,周三市值突破前所未有的4万亿美元。 华尔街的"恐慌指数"远低于近期峰值 尽管美国总统特朗普本周密集释放新的关税威胁——包括对铜加征50%关税、对制药行业加征200%关税,以及对日本、韩国、菲 律宾等国加征关税,但市场反应平淡。 "我已经不在乎关税了,"汇丰银行多元资产策略主管马克斯·凯特纳(Max Kettner)称,"这些都是自说自话。他们完全可能说'再 拖三个月',有什么能阻止呢?" "TACO交易"成共识 市场预计4月动荡不会重演 汇市方面,特朗普威胁对巴西加征50%关税后,雷亚尔周三下跌,但外汇市场整体上保持平静。CME Group编制的欧元兑美元等汇 率的预期波动指数较4月高点显著回落,大致回到年初水平。 "市场认为,特朗普政府不太可能希望重演4月初'解放日'关税引发的动荡,"三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)高级外汇分析师李·哈德 曼(Lee Hardman)称。 美国资 ...
波动率降至年内低点,投资者对特朗普关税威胁渐趋淡定
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-10 13:43
Core Viewpoint - Market volatility has decreased to its lowest level of the year, with the U.S. stock market reaching an all-time high despite escalating trade threats from Trump, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The VIX index, which measures short-term volatility expectations for the S&P 500, has dropped to 16, significantly below the long-term average of around 20 [1]. - Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed an unprecedented $4 trillion, driving a surge in technology stocks [1]. - The U.S. Treasury market's expected volatility index is nearing its lowest level in three years [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are less concerned about Trump's trade threats compared to earlier statements, betting that he will ultimately back down on tariffs that could severely harm U.S. growth [1]. - The "TACO" trading strategy, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," reflects this sentiment shift among investors [1][2]. - HSBC's multi-asset strategy head, Max Kettner, noted a significant change in investor attitudes towards tariffs after May 12 [2]. Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,100 to 6,600, driven by expectations of earlier interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong performance from large U.S. companies [2]. - The upcoming second-quarter earnings season is expected to deliver solid results, contributing to market optimism [2]. Group 4: Risks and Warnings - Despite the prevailing optimism, some investors caution that the stock market's buoyancy may embolden Trump to adopt a more aggressive stance on trade than currently anticipated [3]. - Concerns have been raised about the lack of caution in the market, with the S&P 500 trading at a forward P/E ratio of 24 times, indicating potential overvaluation [3][4]. - Nordea's CIO, Kasper Elmgreen, expressed worries about the absence of concern regarding the significant tariff increases experienced recently [4].
债市专题研究:三季度海外宏观主线再校准
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-10 10:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].
每日投资策略-20250709
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-07-09 01:51
2025 年 7 月 9 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件:research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌(%) | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 24,148 | 0.97 | 41.65 | | 恒生国企 | 8,709 | 1.15 | 50.97 | | 恒生科技 | 5,326 | 2.10 | 41.49 | | 上证综指 | 3,497 | 0.72 | 17.56 | | 深证综指 | 2,102 | 1.28 | 14.39 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,181 | 1.15 | 15.32 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,241 | -1.31 | 17.38 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,226 | -0.86 | 30.52 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 20,418 | -0.89 | 36.02 | | 德国 DAX | 24,207 | 1.76 | 44.50 | | ...
3500点不破,是故意的还是不小心?
表舅是养基大户· 2025-07-08 13:31
Market Overview - The A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3499.89, just shy of the 3500 mark, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [1][3] - Global markets experienced a rally, influenced by the TACO trading and perceived hesitance from the U.S. administration regarding negotiations with Japan and South Korea [3] - The implementation of new quantitative regulations led to a significant influx of capital, with trading volume returning to 1.5 trillion and a notable recovery in financing [4] Financial Industry Insights - The asset management sector is under pressure to adapt to the improving market conditions, as previously poor performance made it understandable for funds to struggle [8] - The rapid growth of the "Wangshang Bank's" "Stable Treasure" product, which has over 4 million users, highlights the power of internet platforms in the financial sector [9][11] - The overall scale of the wealth management industry has reached approximately 32 trillion, driven by a shift from traditional savings to investment products [12] Product Strategy and Market Trends - The success of Xiaomi's automotive sales offers valuable lessons for asset management firms, emphasizing the importance of a focused and transparent product strategy [14][21] - The "Stable Treasure" product adopts a boutique approach, prioritizing quality over quantity, which has resulted in high user retention and repurchase rates [25] - The asset management industry is encouraged to move towards a model that emphasizes standardization, transparency, and premium offerings to meet evolving consumer demands [22][23] Regulatory Changes and Future Outlook - The expansion of the southbound bond connect will allow insurance companies to invest in offshore bonds, potentially reshaping the investment landscape [29][31] - The ability to access international debt markets may divert some capital away from domestic long-term bonds and REITs, necessitating close monitoring of policy developments [32]
目前市场的一大风险:压根不信特朗普关税
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-08 08:04
Core Viewpoint - The market appears to be indifferent to Trump's latest tariff threats, reflecting a belief that these threats may not be implemented or will have minimal impact on the economy and corporate profits [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Trump's announcement to delay tariff negotiations until August 1 and impose 25% tariffs on Japanese and South Korean products, as well as up to 40% on products from 12 other countries, resulted in a modest decline of 0.2% in the S&P 500 index [1]. - The South Korean stock market saw a significant increase, with the Seoul Composite Index rising by 1.5% at one point, indicating a positive market sentiment despite the tariff threats [1]. - Analysts suggest that the market's calm response indicates a belief that the tariffs will not have a substantial effect on economic growth or corporate profits [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors seem to be ignoring the latest tariff announcements, interpreting them as a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive stance on tariff levels [4]. - The market has adapted to the unpredictable nature of tariff policies, with significant structural misalignments observed, as evidenced by the stability of U.S. inflation swap prices despite ongoing tariff threats [4]. - The prevailing sentiment is that the tariff threats are not taken seriously, leading to potential risks if Trump adopts a more aggressive stance unexpectedly [3][4].