泰国代理总理：美国对泰国征收的关税水平"不错"。 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, with the economic description shifting from "steady expansion" to "slowing" [2] - The market's expectation for interest rate cuts in 2023 has decreased from 46 basis points to 36 basis points [5] - The U.S. PCE inflation rebounded in June, with core PCE prices rising 2.8% year-on-year, marking a four-month high [4] Industry Insights - The technology sector is seeing mixed performance, with high-end models showing strong demand while overall industry demand remains weak [6] - Companies focusing on high-end flagship models and component upgrades are expected to benefit from anticipated strong demand in the second half of 2025 [6] Company Analysis - China National Pharmaceutical Group (1177 HK) is undergoing a significant transformation with a focus on innovative drug development, particularly in oncology and metabolic diseases, with a target price of HKD 9.40 [7][10] - Meta Platforms (META US) reported a 22% year-on-year revenue increase to USD 47.5 billion, driven by AI-enhanced advertising, with a target price raised to USD 860 [10] - Microsoft (MSFT US) exceeded expectations with a revenue of USD 76.4 billion for FY25, growing 18.1% year-on-year, and raised its target price to USD 601.5 [11] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) showed strong sales growth of 47% year-on-year, with a target price of USD 44.95, despite rising costs [12][14]

FICC日报 | 2025-08-01 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，新订单指数回落至49.4，非制造 业保持扩张。7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依规治理企业 无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引。7月31日，市场全天震荡调整， 三大指数午后均跌超1%。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市超4200股飘绿，今日成交逾1.96万亿。商品期货收盘，焦煤 主力合约跌停，玻璃跌超8%，多晶硅跌超7%，硅铁、纯碱、工业硅跌超6%。 "反内卷"的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、 ...

瑞士政府对美国关税表示遗憾。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-1 ⻩⾦修复性反弹，⽩银延续回落 经历议息会议之夜的利空消息密接轰炸后，⻩⾦⽇内开启修复性反弹， 内盘⻩⾦受到⼈⺠币⾛低的影响，⾛势更为坚挺。美国⼆季度GDP数据超 预期回升，但关税影响下贸易和库存对单季度的影响较⼤，平滑上半年增 速来看，增⻓中枢整体下移的事实客观。后续关税逐渐成为慢变量，关注 其对美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，我们提⽰8⽉下旬的全球央⾏年会更为 重要，关注本周五⾮农数据表现，⻩⾦中⻓期多头趋势并未逆转。 重点资讯： 1）美国上周初请失业金人数为21.8万人，预期22.4万人，前值21. 7万人；四周均值为22.1万人，前值22.45万人；至7月19日当周续请 失业金人数194.6万人，预期195.5万人，前值自195.5万人修正至19 4.6万人。 2）美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升2.8%，预期升2.7%，前值自升2. 7%修正至升2.8%；环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.2%。美国6月 个人支出环比升0.3%，预期升0.4%，前值自降0.1%修正至持平。 3）美国总统特朗普宣布，美国已与 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q2 earnings report reveals a mixed performance, with strong revenue but significant concerns over AWS's growth and profitability, particularly in the context of AI demand outpacing supply and rising operational costs [1][2][5][6]. Financial Performance - Amazon's total revenue for Q2 reached $167.7 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase when excluding foreign exchange impacts [27]. - AWS generated $30.9 billion in sales, reflecting a 17.5% year-over-year growth, but this growth is seen as insufficient compared to competitors [1][30]. - AWS's operating profit margin fell sharply from 39.5% in Q1 to 32.9% in Q2, primarily due to increased capital expenditures for AI support [2][31]. AI and Supply Constraints - CEO Andy Jassy acknowledged a significant supply constraint in AI capabilities, stating that demand currently exceeds supply, with electricity being the primary limiting factor [5][6][41]. - The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure, including the development of its proprietary AI chip, Trainium2, which is claimed to be 30% to 40% more cost-effective than competitors' GPUs [3][8][22]. Competitive Landscape - Despite AWS's strong position, concerns are growing about its ability to maintain market leadership as competitors achieve higher growth rates [1][30]. - Jassy emphasized AWS's advantages in security and operational performance, attempting to reassure investors about its competitive edge [2][8][37]. Other Business Segments - Amazon's retail business performed well, with record sales during Prime Day and a 22% year-over-year growth in advertising revenue [3][7][30]. - However, Jassy expressed caution regarding potential impacts from tariffs, indicating uncertainty about future demand and pricing [4][7][18]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in AI and cloud infrastructure to meet growing demand, with expectations of gradual improvements in supply constraints over the coming quarters [31][41]. - Amazon's Project Kuiper aims to address the digital divide by providing broadband access to underserved areas, indicating a long-term growth strategy beyond its core e-commerce and cloud services [47].

– 美国联邦上诉法院就特朗普关税案召开听证会，多数法官对关税合法性提出尖锐质疑。 隔夜要点 – 美股周四收低，早盘涨势未能持续，投资者消化最新一轮企业财报和经济数据，并等待亚马逊和苹果 在盘后公布业绩。美国长期公债收益率下滑，市场正在等待周五发布的7月就业报告。这一走势逆转了 前一交易日因美联储主席鲍威尔发表偏鹰派言论而导致的收益率上升。美元兑主要货币录得2025年以来 的首个月线涨幅，受贸易紧张局势缓解和美国经济复苏支撑。油价下跌，特朗普8月1日的关税最后期限 迫在眉睫，投资者关注围绕尚未与美国达成贸易协议的国家的不确定性。金价上涨，交易员由于关税不 确定性持续存在而转向避险资产。 | 股市指数 | 收报 | 日变动% | 年初至今变动% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纳斯达克指数 | 21122.45 | (0.03) | 9.38 | | 标普500指数 | 6339.39 | (0.37) | 7.78 | | 道琼斯工业均指 | 44130.98 | (0.74) | 3.73 | | 恒生指数 | 24773.33 | (1.60) | 23.50 | | 上证综指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities (crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, polyvinyl chloride) are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025. It takes into account factors such as price changes, trade agreements, production data, and supply - demand relationships. Overall, most commodities are expected to show an oscillating trend, with specific trends affected by factors like tariffs, production capacity utilization, and downstream demand [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI 9 - month contract fell by $0.74 to $69.26 per barrel, a 1.06% drop; Brent 9 - month contract dropped by $0.71 to $72.53 per barrel, a 0.97% decline; SC2509 closed at 528.2 yuan per barrel, down 3.8 yuan or 0.71%. Trade agreements and potential sanctions may affect future oil demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur (FU2509) and low - sulfur (LU2510) fuel oil declined. The overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure. If oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may rebound. The LU - FU spread has rebounded from a low level [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2509) rose. The supply is expected to increase, but the increment is limited. The demand is affected by precipitation, but there is positive support after the rainy season. The spot price is relatively firm, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilization [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 prices fell on Thursday. Some production facilities had temporary shutdowns and restarts. With cost support from the peak oil demand season, increased supply, and resilient downstream demand, polyester prices are expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber contracts declined. In June, global natural rubber production decreased by 1.5% to 1191,000 tons, while consumption increased by 0.7% to 1271,000 tons. With increased rainfall in domestic production areas and improved downstream tire production and sales, rubber prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [3][5] - **Methanol**: After the Iranian device load returned to a high level and the arrival volume increased, the downstream profit and start - up remained stable, and inventory continued to increase. Methanol prices are expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [5] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand. As long as the cost does not drop significantly, the downside space is limited [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply of PVC remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing with slow inventory decline. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared to the previous day [8] 3.3 Market News - Trump announced a 90 - day extension of the trade agreement with Mexico, with Mexico continuing to pay certain tariffs. Market analysts believe these tariffs are unfavorable to future oil demand [10] - On July 31, the EIA data showed that US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. OPEC members have accelerated production increases since May, which may lead to market supply surplus [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various commodities, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and their changes over time [29][30][33] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including the spreads between different months [44][45][46] 3.4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different commodities, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of asphalt to crude oil, etc. [65][66][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some commodities, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [69][74] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, awards, and professional experiences [76][77][78] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [81]

智通财经APP获悉，7 月份，韩国的出口再次出现增长，这一增长得益于强劲的半导体产品出口以及稳 定的汽车销售，同时也得益于企业为赶在美国加征关税之前抢占先机而采取的提前布局策略。周五公布 的海关数据显示，韩国7月份出口额较上年同期增长了 5.9%，高于市场预期的 5.1%的增长幅度。经工 作日调整后，出口额也增长了 5.9%，而 6 月份的增幅为 6.8%。未经调整的进口额小幅上涨 0.7%，从而 形成了 66 亿美元的贸易顺差。 与美国达成的贸易协议消除了未来经济运行中的一大不确定性因素。韩国经济在今年前三个月出现了萎 缩，尽管第二季度已恢复增长，但韩国央行预计今年的经济增长率仅为 0.8%，尽管已进行了降息和新 的财政刺激措施。 韩国经济产业省在另一份声明中表示，用于人工智能应用的高性能芯片需求推动了半导体出口的增长， 同时汽车出口也增长了 8.8%，因为美国以外的市场需求表现强劲。 新的税率相较于近几个月来实施的 10%的税率仍有提高，这给出口商带来了更大的压力。与此同时， 汽车制造商将获得一定的缓解，因为他们向美国出口时已征收的 25%的附加税将降至 15%。该协议还 包括韩国方面承诺向美国投资 35 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：需要仔细评估特朗普关税的细节。 ...