期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 29 日 0 / 49 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：承接进一步加强 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：增量信息依旧有限 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应扰动增加 | 美豆走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘价格下调，国内价格强势 6 | | | 油脂板块：原油带动油脂继续上涨 8 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力增加 | 价格下行增加 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 11 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 12 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 13 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：驱动不明显，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：美联储稍显鹰派 但金银不改强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：联储议息会 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-29 美伊关系⾛向仍有不确定，原油及化⼯ 延续震荡整理 美伊关系可能面临重大变化，原油价格近期将维持较高波动率。彭博 报道，1月28日美国总统特朗普警告伊朗，与美国达成协议的时间已经所 剩不多，并表示一支进入该地区的美国军舰编队已准备好"以速度和迅猛 之势"完成任务；特朗普表示，伊朗回到谈判桌前，就一项"公平公正的 协议——不能有核武器"展开谈判。伊朗日产原油330万桶，所在区域也 是诸多产油国云集，美伊和谈或是决裂将成为原油市场短期走势的关键。 原油短期供给端也受到了一些天气端的扰动，主要在北美区域。投资者以 震荡思路对待油价。（上述信息均来自彭博终端。） 板块逻辑： 化工产业链整体延续震荡格局。当前化工产业链尚不能说空头力量云 集的一个重要原因是，下游也出现了价格的同步抬升，这种涨幅可能不及 盘面的原料，但也能勉强跟随，这表现在聚酯、苯乙烯和聚烯烃的下游。 化工中格局偏弱的是甲醇，当前占据甲醇需求50%的MTO装置开工位于五年 最低，甲醇港口库存位于五年最高，而冬季即将过去，伊朗停车的装置也 将在2-3月间重启 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The U.S. has expressed a renewed interest in acquiring Greenland, citing national security concerns, with President Trump reiterating this intention shortly after military actions in Venezuela [1] - The strategic significance of Greenland is rooted in its unique geopolitical position, high autonomy, and reliance on external financial support, with a GDP of approximately $3.3 billion and a per capita GDP of $58,499 [2] - Greenland is rich in critical minerals, including 25 of the 30 raw materials identified by the EU, making it a key player in the global supply chain for resources like graphite and rare earth elements [2][3] Group 2: Resource Development - The Amisok graphite project in Greenland is highlighted as a strategic asset due to its high carbon content, which is crucial for lithium-ion batteries, amidst rising global demand for electric vehicles [3] - The development of rare earth resources in Greenland, particularly in the Kvanefjeld and Tanbreez projects, is seen as vital for reducing dependence on Chinese supply chains [4] - The U.S. is actively supporting the Tanbreez project with a $120 million loan proposal to facilitate its development, indicating a strategic push to secure critical resources [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Greenland's military value is underscored by its role in the GIUK gap, which is crucial for intercepting Russian submarines and maintaining NATO's strategic advantage in the North Atlantic [7] - The U.S. military presence in Greenland, including the Thule Air Base, enhances its missile defense capabilities against potential threats from Eurasia [8] - The geopolitical landscape in the Arctic is increasingly competitive, with Russia holding significant advantages in terms of military presence and operational capabilities [11] Group 4: U.S. Legislative Challenges - Historical attempts by the U.S. to purchase Greenland have faced numerous legislative hurdles, with Congress showing resistance to direct acquisition proposals [13] - Current discussions in Congress reflect a mix of support and opposition to the idea of acquiring Greenland, with various bills being proposed to either facilitate or block such actions [16][17] - The legal complexities surrounding Greenland's self-determination rights pose significant challenges to any U.S. acquisition efforts, as the island's population has expressed mixed feelings about U.S. control [18][19] Group 5: Strategic Pathways - The U.S. may employ a strategy of geopolitical pressure and investment to influence Greenland's governance and reduce its reliance on Denmark, potentially leading to a form of functional absorption [19][20] - Proposed initiatives could include direct financial support for infrastructure development in Greenland, aimed at fostering economic independence from Denmark [19] - The potential for a "Compact of Free Association" similar to agreements with other Pacific nations could provide a framework for U.S. influence while respecting Greenland's autonomy [20]

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector is experiencing a positive trend, with significant increases in stock prices and ETF performance, driven by geopolitical factors and supply constraints [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities Oil and Gas Resource Index rose by 0.90%, with notable increases in component stocks such as Tongyuan Petroleum (up 11.88%) and Zhongman Petroleum (up 6.97%) [1]. - The oil and gas ETF, Huatai Fu (159309), saw a peak increase of over 2% during trading, currently up 0.36%, with a latest price of 1.39 yuan [1]. - Over the past week, the Huatai Fu oil and gas ETF has accumulated a 10.00% increase [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flows - The Huatai Fu oil and gas ETF recorded a turnover rate of 22.97% during trading, with a transaction volume of 84.72 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1]. - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 50 million units, translating to an estimated net inflow of 75 million yuan based on the average transaction price [1]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 361 million yuan and its share count reached 262 million, both marking a one-year high [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Kazakhstan's major oil fields, Tengez and Korolev, have suspended production due to power system failures, which may reduce crude oil supply through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) [3]. - Geopolitical tensions and increased energy demand due to cold weather are providing substantial support for international oil prices [3][4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that oil prices may rebound in the second to third quarter of 2026, with Brent crude price expectations raised to $65 per barrel [4]. - The oil and gas sector is expected to show long-term investment value, with companies capable of increasing production and reducing costs likely to present attractive opportunities [4][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to recent geopolitical tensions, Maersk's stable February quotes, and potential cargo rush and price support in March, the market may be difficult to decline in the short - term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upside potential depends on capital behavior. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies, with a focus on the far - month contract 2610, which is more affected by the off - season and policies. Caution should be exercised for the 2604 contract, unless there is significant premium in the market. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and PA alliance quotes [3] - The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. However, the valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are hard to determine, are currently within a reasonable range, and are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Prudent operation is advised [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1719.0 with a 0.09% increase; EC2604 at 1229.0 with a 2.94% increase; EC2606 at 1493.2 with a 3.54% increase; EC2608 at 1560.8 with a 2.12% increase; EC2610 at 1135.1 with a 2.08% increase [2] - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 309 to 3186; EC2604 increased by 1499 to 40146; EC2606 increased by 1690 to 9602; EC2608 increased by 67 to 1549; EC2610 increased by 211 to 8722 [2] - **Month - Spread Changes**: The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 490.0, a day - on - day decrease of 63.6 and a week - on - week decrease of 79.9; EC2504 - 2606 was - 264.2, a day - on - day decrease of 15.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 [2] Spot Market Information - **SCFIS and SCF Indexes**: The SCFIS (European Line) index on January 26, 2026, was 1859.31 points, a 4.86% decrease from the previous period. The SCF (European Line) was 1595 dollars/TEU on January 23, 2026, a 4.85% decrease from the previous period [2] - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week 5, the central quote was 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures. In Week 6, the central quote was equivalent to 1580 points on the futures. MSK's February Week 7 - 9 quote was 1950 dollars, lower than market expectations [4] Related News - Hamas senior official Musa Abu Marzouk stated that Hamas has never agreed to hand over its weapons in any form, and any arrangement for Gaza must be reached through an agreement with Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has no right to boast about the release of Israeli hostages [5] - After the initial nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran failed to make progress, US President Trump is considering a new major strike against Iran. Options under consideration include air strikes on Iranian leaders and security officials, as well as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and government institutions [5]

伊朗海军指挥官一句"海峡通行完全由伊朗掌控"，让全球三分之一的原油贸易通道悬于一线，中国的能源安全红灯骤然亮起。 当地时间1月27日，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军高级指挥官穆罕默德·阿克巴尔扎德宣布，伊朗已实现对霍尔木兹海峡的全面智能化实时监控，是 否允许船只通行"完全由伊朗掌控"。 霍尔木兹海峡是海湾地区石油输往世界各地的唯一海上通道，全球约三分之一的海运原油贸易每天超过2000万桶石油都要经过这里。伊朗此 次强硬表态意味着全球能源安全的敏感神经被直接触动。 伊朗此次行动不止是技术升级。阿克巴尔扎德明确表示："伊朗的周边国家是我们的朋友，但如果其陆地、空域或水域被用于针对伊朗，将被 视为敌对行为。" 这一战略通道的安全现在"取决于德黑兰的决策"。 与以往不同，伊朗特别强调了"全面智能化"和"实时监控"，这意味着传统规避监控的手段可能失效。伊朗革命卫队已经将技术优势转化为地缘 政治筹码。 霍尔木兹海峡若被封锁，将引发全球能源市场地震。有分析预测，如果海峡运输量大幅减少，国际原油价格可能出现飙升。 即使只是短期干扰，全球石油供应也将显著下降。对于液化天然气而言，情况更为严峻——几乎没有替代路线。 中国作为全球最大原油 ...

Group 1 - The recent geopolitical tensions have escalated with President Trump's sanctions targeting traditional allies Canada and South Korea [2][4] - Canada is attempting to balance its trade relations between the US and China, which has provoked a strong response from Washington [2][4] - Trump's threats include imposing punitive tariffs of up to 100% on Canadian goods if any substantial trade agreements with China are made [4] Group 2 - South Korea has faced similar sanctions, with tariffs on its automotive and pharmaceutical sectors raised from 15% to 25% due to perceived failures in trade commitments to the US [5] - The sanctions against South Korea are a direct response to President Yoon Suk-yeol's recent high-profile visit to China, where numerous economic cooperation agreements were signed [6][8] - The US is exhibiting extreme anxiety over its geopolitical influence, as evidenced by its aggressive trade policies aimed at preventing allies from strengthening ties with China [8][30] Group 3 - The US Department of Defense's recent National Defense Strategy report has sparked debate, as it contrasts sharply with Trump's aggressive trade rhetoric [10] - The report avoids mentioning Taiwan and emphasizes cooperation in areas of mutual interest, suggesting a shift towards a more pragmatic approach to US-China relations [12][13] - Analysts interpret this as a sign of the US military's acknowledgment of its limitations in a direct confrontation with China, despite ongoing military superiority [10][13][20] Group 4 - Economic data indicates that China, with a population of 1.4 billion and a GDP growth rate around 5%, is on a trajectory to surpass the US economically within 10 to 20 years [16] - The US military remains a significant asset, with annual defense spending that exceeds the combined total of the next nine countries, maintaining a global military presence [18] - The current military advantage of the US is seen as a critical window for action against China, as economic competition appears increasingly unfavorable for the US [20][22] Group 5 - There is a faction within the US military advocating for preemptive action against China, viewing military engagement as a necessary strategy to disrupt China's modernization [22][24] - The potential for nuclear conflict is highlighted, with the US military's willingness to consider first-use scenarios under specific conditions [24][26] - The US is expected to continue leveraging trade wars and geopolitical tensions to slow China's progress while preparing its military capabilities for future confrontations [28][30]

研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数（欧线）日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,719.0 | 1.5 | 0.09% | 370.0 | -62.40% | 3,186.0 | -8.84% | | EC2604 | 1,229.0 | 35.1 | 2.94% | 38,983.0 | 55.66% | 40,146.0 | 3.88% | | EC2606 | 1,493.2 | 51.0 | 3.54% | 4,954.0 | 93.06% | 9,602.0 | 21.36% | ...

这就是2026年开年的柬埔寨，一出让人目不暇接的魔幻现实主义大戏悄然上演。美军舰艇大摇大摆驶入 了那片神秘的中国秘密基地，与此同时，柬埔寨副首相却在对着华盛顿高调表忠心。难道这真的是一次 外交的大转向？如果你只看表面，信了这种外交表态，那你可能完全不了解湄公河畔的生存法则…… **被关税逼得喘不过气** 2025年4月，特朗普重新坐上白宫的宝座，没多久，金边就收到了来自美国的见面礼。这份礼物让柬埔 寨喘不过气——美国以贸易逆差为由，威胁对柬埔寨出口商品征收高达49%的惩罚性关税。 对于柬埔寨来说，这一刀下去，意味着什么？如果失去美国市场，或者关税一旦落地，柬埔寨的GDP会 瞬间缩水超过3%。而这，不仅仅是经济账，更是政治账——关乎政权的稳定，关乎民众的安全感。因 此，在这巨大的压力下，一场紧张的谈判迅速展开。 到2025年年底，最终的谈判结果是，关税从49%降到了19%。但这个结果背后，柬埔寨付出的代价可谓 不小。为了这30%的差距，柬埔寨被迫接受了前所未有的原产地审查，并承诺在三年内购买15亿美元的 美国产品。而最令人痛心的，是华盛顿明确划下的红线——如果哪怕一卷中国布料被洗产地，普惠制待 遇就立刻清零。也 ...

大摩又认为，在供应链转移与地缘政治动态下，亚洲区域内需求的韧性存在上行风险，而全球货柜航运 业的持续下行周期则构成下行风险。若中日贸易显著恶化，海丰国际对日本航线相对较高的曝险可能带 来风险。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，予海丰国际(01308)目标价26.4港元，评级为"与大市同 步"。海丰国际发布初步业绩，预计去年净利润为12亿至12.3亿美元(市场共识为11.9亿美元)，同比增 16%至18.9%。认为业绩略微超越市场共识，但预期市场对去年的盈利反应有限。 ...