与其他消费指数集中在"吃喝"有所不同，可选消费ETF主要覆盖汽车（46%）、家电（34%）、商贸零售（6%）等与服务消费、统一大市场密切相关的细分 行业，前十大权重股包括美的集团、比亚迪、格力电器、福耀玻璃、海尔智家、赛力斯、三花智控、中国中免、上汽集团、长安汽车。 | 产品大类 | 2025年补贴标准 (旧政策) | | --- | --- | | 家电类 | 8类家电;1级能效20%,2级 15%;单件上限 2000元 | | 数码及智能产 | 手机、平板、手表手环（3 | | 品 | 类）；15%补贴，上限500元 | | 汽车报废更新 | 定额补贴：新能源2万元，燃 | | | 油车1.5万元 | | 汽车置换更新 | 定额上限: 新能源1.5万,燃 | | | 油1.3万 (各地标准略异) | | 智能家居 | 地方自主制定 | 12月30日盘后，发改委、财政部公布2026年"国补"政策：AR眼镜等智能产品最新纳入补贴范围；智能家居明确包含"适老化家居"；延续支持汽车报废更 新、汽车置换更新，补贴方式由"定额"改为"按比例"，新能源车报废更新补贴车价的12%（上限2万），燃油车报废更新补贴车价的8% ...

Group 1 - Dalian City aims to implement provincial requirements and become a leader in the revitalization of Liaoning and Northeast China, with a clear economic work plan for the upcoming year [1] - The city will focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting a positive interaction between consumption and investment, with initiatives in various sectors including automotive, home appliances, and tourism [1] - Dalian plans to accelerate the progress of major projects, including the construction of the Jinzhou Bay International Airport and the Changhai Cross-Sea Bridge, with a total investment of 1.16 trillion yuan across 1,348 projects [1] Group 2 - The city emphasizes innovation-driven development and aims to build a modern industrial system, focusing on five leading industries and three major industrial clusters [2] - Dalian is committed to improving the business environment and implementing reforms in key sectors, with a goal of becoming a benchmark city for a favorable business climate [2] - The city seeks to enhance its openness and connectivity, promoting the development of logistics, renewable energy, and international healthcare, while also hosting significant international events [2] Group 3 - Dalian prioritizes social welfare and aims to ensure that development benefits the local population, addressing concerns related to employment, education, and healthcare [3] - The city is working towards a harmonious integration of urban and rural development, enhancing the quality of life for its residents [3]

善于识变应变求变，于变局中稳大局、开新局，是我们党领导人民战胜一切风险挑战、牢牢把握战略主 动的重要方法。 2026年我们将迎来"十五五"开局之年。党的二十届四中全会深刻把握世界大势和时代潮流，就"十五 五"时期我国发展面临的环境作出重大判断，对事关全局的战略任务进行顶层设计和战略擘画。全会审 议通过的"十五五"规划建议，事关我国未来5年发展的新蓝图，是以习近平同志为核心的党中央发扬历 史主动精神的重要体现，是我们党准确识变、科学应变、主动求变的实践成果，为我们掌握主动、赢得 未来提供了重要遵循。 确保"十五五"开好局、起好步，一个重要方面就是增强识变应变求变的自觉和本领，以历史主动精神克 难关、战风险、迎挑战，奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面。 （一） 正确判断形势是科学决策的重要前提。 保持战略清醒，面对前进道路上必然会遇到的风险挑战、矛盾问题，始终做到胸中有数，正是我们掌握 历史主动的重要基础。 习近平总书记指出，"正确认识党和人民事业所处的历史方位和发展阶段，是我们党明确阶段性中心任 务、制定路线方针政策的根本依据"。 从直面"三期叠加"的复杂局面，作出我国经济发展进入新常态的判断，到把握结构失衡、环境 ...

岁序更替，华章日新。 当时间的指针辞别2025、行至2026，我们便跨越了二十一世纪最初的二十五年，向历史更深远处前行。 作为中国经济的忠实观察者、记录者，诞生于世纪之初的《21世纪经济报道》，也陪伴你们走过了四分 之一个世纪，并将继续与每一位读者并肩，共同续写属于这个时代的世纪新章。 中央经济工作会议进一步要求，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。这不仅意味着要实现经济稳定增长， 更要聚焦更深层次的结构性改革并取得突破性进展。主动作为方能破局，需以历史主动精神克难关，苦 练内功把握未来发展的主动权。 当前，推动新旧动能转换与化解"供强需弱"矛盾是两大核心任务。由于相关问题形成原因复杂、涉及层 面广泛，解决起来既要久久为功，又要时不我待，亟待通过苦练内功打通这"任督二脉"。 2026年是第十五个五年规划的开局之年，时间的长河奔涌不息，接续奋斗的脚步永不停歇。我们的国家 正在创造属于自己的新纪录，继续为更美好的未来勇毅前行。 2025年成为全球格局重塑的关键拐点。在这一年，全球真切感受到了中国实力，并重估中国的世界坐 标。这一转变，超越单纯的经济规模，更源于科技、贸易、治理与安全等多个维度同步迸发的硬实力支 撑和创新 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that under the backdrop of loose monetary policies both domestically and internationally, foreign capital and southbound funds are expected to continue their net inflow trend, leading to a substantial improvement in the profitability of Hong Kong-listed companies, with the market anticipated to experience both profit and valuation increases by 2026 [1] Group 2 - In terms of investment themes, the focus should be on technology innovation, as the goal of significantly enhancing self-reliance in technology during the 14th Five-Year Plan period will drive investment in this area. The Hang Seng Technology Index has considerable room for valuation recovery, and leading companies are expected to show high growth characteristics [1] - The cyclical industries are also highlighted, where the deepening supply-side reform policies are expected to optimize the supply-demand dynamics in sectors such as steel, building materials, electrical equipment, and paper, leading to steady improvements in capacity utilization and gross margins [1] - The consumption theme is emphasized under the strategy of expanding domestic demand, with expected growth in performance and valuations at historically low levels, particularly in sectors like service consumption, "trade-in" programs, and new consumption [1] - Overall, the investment strategy for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 should focus on the flow of funds ("water") and the quality of performance ("quality"), with a high sensitivity to global liquidity, domestic policy implementation, and corporate profit recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy shows resilience but faces significant issues with strong supply and weak demand, necessitating structural measures to unleash consumer potential and expand effective investment to promote sustained economic recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Structural Countermeasures - The expansion of domestic demand policies this year has been extensive and impactful, yet problems of insufficient market demand, strong supply, and weak prices remain prominent [2]. - To stimulate consumer demand, it is suggested to implement counter-cyclical consumption stimulus policies, optimize the support range and structure for commodity consumption, and focus on subsidies in essential areas such as education, healthcare, and elderly care to boost consumer confidence [2]. - Effective implementation of a resident income growth plan is crucial to enhance social security and public service levels for low-income groups, thereby improving safety expectations and consumer confidence [2]. - Strengthening supply-side policies is necessary by reducing entry restrictions, optimizing regulatory policies, and enhancing domestic standards and brand development to expand the supply of quality services [2]. Group 2: Expanding Effective Investment - Alongside releasing consumer potential, there is a need to focus on expanding effective investment for a positive interaction between consumption and investment [3]. - A new model for urban and rural construction and real estate development should be established, moving away from large-scale, rough urban construction towards investments that enhance urban environments and housing quality, addressing demands for urban renewal and rural infrastructure improvements [3]. - There is a call to significantly boost private and foreign investment by deepening reforms, expanding openness, and improving the business environment to stabilize and enhance corporate expectations and confidence [3].

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。这是在"十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五"即将开启的重 要历史节点上党中央召开的一次十分重要的会议。 怎样看待今年和"十四五"时期我国经济社会发展取得的重大成就？会议释放出做好明年经济工作哪些重 要信号？如何贯彻落实好会议决策部署，确保"十五五"开好局起好步？ 新华社12月30日推出第二十七期"中国经济圆桌会"大型全媒体访谈节目，邀请国务院研究室社会司司长 刘日红，中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇，国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院研究员刘志成，中国民间商 会副会长、依文集团董事长夏华，共话贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，奋力实现"十五五"良好开局。 深刻认识发展成就 准确理解规律性认识 2025年是很不平凡的一年。以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼 搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 中国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风 险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力……会议指出，过去5年，我们有效应对各种 ...

善于识变应变求变，于变局中稳大局、开新局，是我们党领导人民战胜一切风险挑战、牢牢把握战略主 动的重要方法。 2026年我们将迎来"十五五"开局之年。党的二十届四中全会深刻把握世界大势和时代潮流，就"十五 五"时期我国发展面临的环境作出重大判断，对事关全局的战略任务进行顶层设计和战略擘画。全会审 议通过的"十五五"规划建议，事关我国未来5年发展的新蓝图，是以习近平同志为核心的党中央发扬历 史主动精神的重要体现，是我们党准确识变、科学应变、主动求变的实践成果，为我们掌握主动、赢得 未来提供了重要遵循。 确保"十五五"开好局、起好步，一个重要方面就是增强识变应变求变的自觉和本领，以历史主动精神克 难关、战风险、迎挑战，奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面。 （一） 正确判断形势是科学决策的重要前提。 习近平总书记指出，"正确认识党和人民事业所处的历史方位和发展阶段，是我们党明确阶段性中心任 务、制定路线方针政策的根本依据"。 从直面"三期叠加"的复杂局面，作出我国经济发展进入新常态的判断，到把握结构失衡、环境污染等粗 放发展问题，明确我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段……新时代以来，党中央准确把握大 局大势，在关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of China's economy is evident, but there are significant issues with strong supply and weak demand, necessitating structural measures to unleash consumer potential and expand effective investment to promote sustained economic recovery [1]. Structural Countermeasures - The extensive range and significant strength of domestic demand expansion policies this year have yielded positive results, yet issues of insufficient market demand, strong supply but weak demand, and weak prices remain prominent. The lack of consumer demand is influenced by both short-term fluctuations and long-term structural constraints, highlighting the need for structural countermeasures [1]. Stimulating Consumer Demand - To stimulate consumer demand, three key recommendations are proposed: 1. Implement counter-cyclical consumption stimulus policies that optimize the support range and structure for commodity consumption while maintaining total volume and sustained effort, focusing on subsidies in essential areas such as education, healthcare, and elderly care to boost consumer willingness [2]. 2. Effectively implement a resident income growth plan to enhance social security and public service levels for low-income groups, thereby improving safety expectations and consumer confidence [2]. 3. Strengthen supply-side policies by reducing entry restrictions, optimizing regulatory policies, and enhancing domestic standards, brands, and environmental construction to expand the supply of quality services [2]. Expanding Effective Investment - In addition to releasing consumer potential, there is a need to focus on expanding effective investment for a positive interaction. Two main focal points are identified: 1. Accelerate the formation of a new model for urban and rural construction and real estate development that aligns with the new stage of development, moving away from large-scale, extensive urban construction and real estate investment towards investments that enhance urban environments and housing quality [2]. 2. Promote private and foreign investment by deepening reforms, expanding openness, and improving the business environment to stabilize and enhance corporate expectations and confidence [3].

对于"十五五"时期扩大内需如何进一步发力？张军扩认为，一方面，持续有效释放消费需求潜力要长短 兼顾标本兼治；另一方面，充分释放消费潜力和着力扩大有效投资应当并重，实现良性互动。 张军扩表示，"十五五"期间，充分有效释放居民消费需求潜力需要更加突出结构性对策。一是逆周期性 消费刺激政策，要在总量不减、持续用力的前提下，不断优化商品性消费的支持范围和结构，并以更大 力度支持服务性消费，特别是要按照投资于人的要求，针对群众急难愁盼的教育、医疗、养老、生育等 方面问题，通过加大补贴力度，提振消费意愿，增强消费能力。二是要切实有效实施居民增收计划，并 以较大力度提高低收入人群的社会保障和公共服务水平，有效提升我国居民的预期和消费信心。三是加 大供给侧政策力度，通过减少准入限制，优化监管政策，加大国内标准、品牌、环境建设力度等举措， 扩大优质服务供给。 张军扩进一步指出，不管是从扩大消费来看，还是从解决当前创新发展和改善民生短板弱项的现实需求 来看，无论是投资于物，还是投资于人，扩大投资的空间和潜力依然是不小的。关键是需要适宜的体制 和政策环境支持，只要相关体制和政策环境到位，投资依然能够在"十五五"时期继续成为拉动增长 ...