2026 年 1 月 28 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：美元偏弱、美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4364 -31 | （-0.71%） +25（+0.57%） 4376 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2766 | +0（+0.00%） 2770 +4（+0.14%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1067.5 | +7.5（+0.71%） | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 293.8 -0.2 | n a （-0.07%） | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 3085～3140， | 较昨-20至持平； 现货M2605+440， 持平； 2月 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | M2605+360/+390/+410， M2605 ...

证监许可 【2011】1292号 原木期货日报 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息8)准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或海价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 2026年1月28日 期货和现货价格 | MJ2KTH MANITH | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 1月27日 | 1月26日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 772.5 | 772.5 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 原木2603 | 775.5 | 776.0 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 原 ...

Apple Market Insights - The apple futures contract closed at 9504 yuan/ton, with a change of +38 yuan/ton, representing a +0.40% increase [2][14] - In the spot market, prices for late Fuji apples in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable, with no change in price [2][14] - Overall market conditions are stable but slightly weak, with limited transaction volumes and increased urgency among farmers to sell [3][15] Recent Market Developments - Packaging and shipping in production areas have slightly accelerated, but transaction volumes remain limited, leading to a weak market sentiment [3][15] - In Shaanxi, transactions are primarily based on limited high-quality sources, while Gansu's market is stable with steady shipping [3][15] - The market is entering a critical period for pre-Spring Festival stocking, with a focus on wholesale market performance and shipping progress from production areas [3][15] Market Analysis - The apple market is characterized by supply support but weak demand, with farmers willing to lower prices to stimulate sales [5][16] - The pre-Spring Festival stocking phase has seen a slight improvement in transactions, but overall activity remains subdued [5][16] - The market is experiencing a "hot production area, cold sales area" dynamic, with significant inventory buildup in transit warehouses [5][16] Strategy - The current market strategy is neutral, reflecting the mixed signals from supply and demand dynamics [6][17] Jujube Market Insights - The jujube futures contract closed at 8820 yuan/ton, with a change of +60 yuan/ton, representing a +0.68% increase [7][18] - In the spot market, prices for Hebei's first-grade gray jujubes remained stable at 8.00 yuan/kg [7][18] Recent Market Developments - The jujube market is entering the traditional pre-Spring Festival stocking peak, with increased transaction volumes compared to the initial listing of new jujubes [9][20] - Downstream channels are adopting a low inventory strategy, with limited time left for pre-holiday purchases due to impending logistics shutdowns [9][20] - The market is facing high inventory levels and soft consumer demand, leading to a cautious sentiment among traders [9][20] Market Analysis - The jujube market is experiencing a slight increase in prices but remains under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [9][20] - The focus is shifting to downstream consumption as production areas complete their harvests, with some processing plants halting operations due to inventory pressures [9][20] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with a need to monitor sales pace and buyer sentiment closely [9][20] Strategy - The current market strategy for jujubes is also neutral, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the market [21][22]

2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，煤价企稳小幅探涨 | 9 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 28 日 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 3.5 | 0.45% | | | I2605 | ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 27, 2026 - A-share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 4139.90, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 14329.91, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.71% to 3342.60. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2921.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 359.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4705.69, a decrease of 1.27 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Black Futures - **Coke**: The weighted index of coke adjusted downward, closing at 1670.5, a decrease of 47.1. The spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. Due to high coal prices, coke enterprises' profits are generally in a loss state, and the demand for coke may further weaken [2][4]. - **Coking coal**: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted, closing at 1123.8 yuan, a decrease of 33.7. The price of main coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang area increased by 57 yuan to 1483 yuan/ton. The demand of downstream coke enterprises decreased slightly [3][4]. 2.2. Agricultural Futures - **Sugar**: Affected by the increase in Brazil's sugar exports in the first four weeks of January, the US sugar stabilized and oscillated. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated narrowly and closed slightly lower [4]. - **Natural rubber**: Due to large short - term gains, the Shanghai rubber continued its narrow - range oscillation. The total inventory in Qingdao Port decreased slightly, with a 5.03% decrease in bonded warehouses and a 0.95% increase in general trade warehouses [4][5]. - **Soybean meal**: The CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.71% to 1060.5 cents per bushel. The domestic soybean meal main contract M2505 fell 0.11% to 2766 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the supply of imported soybeans in China will be loose, and the soybean meal futures price lacks a continuous upward driving force [5]. - **Pig**: The main contract of live pigs LH2603 fell 1.57% to 11285 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is still large in the medium term, although the demand has increased [5]. - **Palm oil**: The palm oil futures continued to rise, with the main contract P2605 closing at 9238 yuan, a 1.61% increase. The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 25 decreased by 9.41% compared to the same period last month [5]. 2.3. Metal Futures - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper (2603) closed at 102600 yuan/ton. The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of US bond yields suppressed copper prices, while the low TC at the mine end and tight inventory provided support [5]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14655 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory increased by 61 lots, and textile enterprises purchased as needed [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed down 0.51% to 788 yuan. The supply from Australia and Brazil increased, the domestic arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [6]. - **Aluminum oxide**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2734 yuan/ton. The oversupply pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the cost reduction weakens the support [6]. - **Aluminum**: The al2603 contract closed at 24305 yuan/ton. The macro - sentiment cooled, the supply was stable, the social inventory increased, and the demand continued to shrink [6]. 2.4. Other Futures - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 oscillated and closed up 0.31% to 3279 yuan. The refinery supply is low, the inventory accumulates slightly, and the demand is weak [6]. - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 opened at 776.5, closed at 775.5, and decreased by 141 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [6]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3289 yuan/ton. The steel demand continued to shrink, and the steel price may adjust narrowly in the short term [6].

（责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每经AI快讯，1月28日，钯金期货日内涨5%，现报1977.50美元/盎司。 每日经济新闻 ...

2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：油粕比交易思路维持 | 2 | | 豆粕：美元偏弱、美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：维持偏强震荡20260128 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节前旺季现货偏强 | 10 | | 生猪：需求表现不及预期，关注供应矛盾 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2026 年 01 月 28 日 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 豆油：油粕比交易思路维持 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,238 | 涨跌幅 1.61% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,218 | 涨跌幅 -0.22% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current black building materials market is under real - world pressure, with the futures market running weakly. The slow resumption of steel mills, high iron ore shipments and inventories, and the weakening support of coal - coke restocking all contribute to the weak market. In the off - season, the steel inventory accumulation pressure is increasing, the cost support is loosening, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Although there is downward pressure on the short - term futures market, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Iron ore arrivals have decreased, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side due to weather. Scrap steel supply has rebounded, and daily consumption is expected to decline [2] - **Demand**: Before the festival, restocking supports ore prices, but the actual supply - demand situation on both sides remains to be verified. Scrap steel consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and there are still expectations of steel mill复产 and winter restocking demand. The contradiction in the supply - demand structure is limited, and spot price increases are still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The demand side is still in the process of winter restocking, and the supply side is expected to see a decline in coal mine production near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has priced in the winter restocking, the positive driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is under pressure, but the room for further decline is limited, and it is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions. The poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [3] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has shifted downwards, and the futures market is running weakly. The spot market trading is generally weak, the steel mill profitability rate is improving, the iron water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the short - term futures market still has downward pressure, but the downward space is limited [10] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and port trading has decreased month - on - month. Overseas mine shipments have increased, arrivals have weakened, and the supply side is affected by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. Port and steel mill inventories are increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Scrap Steel**: This week's arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply has declined slightly, demand is expected to decrease, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [12] - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the cost support is strong. The steel mills are resistant to price increases, and the environmental protection disturbances are frequent. The demand side has a slight increase in iron water output, and the inventory is increasing. Spot price increases are still expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12][14] - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is stable, and the supply is stable with high imports. The demand side is in the process of winter restocking, and the inventory is gradually reaching the target. After the futures market has priced in the restocking, the positive driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [15] - **Glass**: The spot price has risen month - on - month, and the futures market oscillates. The supply side has limited losses, and there is unlikely to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand side is weak, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, prices will be weakly oscillating; otherwise, prices will rise [16] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased month - on - month, and the spot contradictions are limited. The supply side has a slight increase in daily output, the demand side has a weakening trend, and the supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is weakly sorted. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The trading atmosphere is poor, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is weak, and the trading activity suppresses the upward space. It is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [19]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月28日08时21分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量环比增加 ，整体库存增加，螺纹表观需求环比回落，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量基本维持不 变。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 ，未 来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。从技术面看，目前期价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 操作建议： 多单轻仓持有，待期价回落至震荡区间下沿附近后再逢低加仓 ，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3126 | -17 | -0.54% | 15 | 0.48% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3289 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On January 27, 2026, equity index and CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities showed lower performance, with AU, AG, and vegetable oils rising [2][10][11]. - The profits of China's SVIA rose by 0.6% in 2025 [1][3][36]. - Hong Kong will launch offshore treasury bond futures and expand the interest rate derivatives business under the "Stock Connect" [37]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 27, equity index and CGB futures were mixed. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.6% and IF dropped 0.2%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.00% and TL dropped 0.33%. In commodity futures, most showed lower performance, with AU, AG, and vegetable oils rising. The top three gainers were Silver, RBD Palm Olein, and Tin, while the top three decliners were Platinum, PTA, and Coking Coal [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **RBD Palm Olein**: Rose 2.7% to 9,238 yuan/ton on January 27. It is set to enter a production decline season with an expected inventory destocking trend, and the market is projected to trade sideways with a bullish bias. The recent rise in crude oil prices and bullish fundamental expectations have underpinned the overall uptrend of vegetable oils. Attention should be paid to biodiesel policies and export performance in producing regions, and the arbitrage strategy of long palm oil and short rapeseed oil is recommended [15][18][19]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal**: Dropped 3.0% to 1,116.5 yuan/ton on January 27. Demand - side winter stockpiling is still underway, and supply - side coal mines are expected to see a production decline as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally with strong spot market support, but the bullish driving force from fundamentals is limited, and the market is expected to trade sideways [22][24][25]. - **Coke**: Dropped 2.8% to 1,668.0 yuan/ton on January 27. Supported by a firm cost side, coupled with lingering expectations of steel mill resumptions and remaining demand for winter stockpiling replenishment, the coke market faces limited supply - demand structural imbalances. Spot price hikes are still expected to materialize, and the futures market is projected to track the movement of coking coal [28][32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - In 2025, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [36]. 2.2 Industry News - Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao stated that Hong Kong will launch offshore treasury bond futures and expand the interest rate derivatives business under the "Stock Connect" [37].