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Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 29, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like palladium and platinum hit the daily limit down, while others like iron ore saw significant increases. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper (SHFE copper) has been rising recently. Market sentiment was boosted by the zero - pricing of the 2026 long - term mining processing fee and Trump's remarks on the Fed chair. However, copper product profits are squeezed, and capacity utilization is declining. Copper foil remains highly prosperous. The inventory of cathode copper on the SHFE has been increasing, indicating weak downstream demand. The copper price on the five - disk rose significantly today, breaking through the 100,000 - integer mark [9][10]. - **Palladium and Platinum**: Both hit the daily limit down, with a decline of 10% [6]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened high but closed nearly 8% lower. Production is expected to increase, and downstream demand is showing signs of weakening. Although the downstream energy - storage battery still maintains growth, the expected production cut of lithium iron phosphate in the first quarter will reduce the support for carbonate lithium prices. Inventory has been decreasing recently [11]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The 2605 contract saw an inflow of 624 million yuan in funds [7]. - **Iron Ore**: It rose by over 2%, and the 2605 contract had a 1.03 - billion - yuan inflow of funds. It was one of the commodities with significant price increases and strong capital inflows [6][7]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The 2605 contract had a 211 - million - yuan inflow of funds [7]. - **Gold and Silver**: The 2602 contracts of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver had large - scale capital outflows, with 5.267 billion yuan and 5.166 billion yuan respectively [7]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + 's eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. However, the market is still in a state of supply surplus, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease as some refineries have plans to switch production or stop production. The demand in the north is gradually weakening, but winter - storage demand is being released. The demand in the south is average. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [14]. Chemicals - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, and the supply is increasing with new capacity and fewer maintenance devices. The downstream is approaching the end of the peak season, and orders are decreasing. It is expected that the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **Plastic**: New production capacity has been put into operation recently. The agricultural film season is ending, and orders are decreasing. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate is decreasing, and downstream demand is weak. The export situation is not optimistic, and inventory pressure is high. It is expected to fluctuate [19]. Other Commodities - **Coking Coal**: The price opened high but closed lower. The supply from domestic mines may decrease, but imported coal is increasing. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is rising. After the third - round price cut of coke was implemented, the fourth - round price cut has started. It is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price cuts [20][21]. - **Urea**: It opened low and closed flat. The market atmosphere is average, and enterprises are reducing prices to attract orders. The daily production is around 200,000 tons. The compound - fertilizer factory's operating rate is declining, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, be weak in the short - term, and strong in the medium - to - long - term [22]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) all declined, with declines of 0.56%, 0.48%, 0.67%, and 0.51% respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year (TS), 5 - year (TF), 10 - year (T), and 30 - year (TL) treasury bond futures all declined, with declines of 0.07%, 0.18%, 0.28%, and 0.91% respectively [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term upward trend of cotton prices has paused due to the clear increase in cotton production in 2025. However, the expectation of a potential reduction in cotton planting areas in 2026 at home and abroad is rising, and the solidified cost of seed cotton acquisition provides strong support. The demand side is favorable, with sufficient orders from Xinjiang yarn mills, high - end yarns in short supply, higher textile operating rates than last year, and enterprises restocking as needed. The easing of Sino - US tariffs benefits textile exports, and the significant increase in cotton yarn imports in November also provides strong support for export demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn contract was 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 177,376 lots, an increase of 13,493 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 2268 lots, an increase of 219 lots. - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 868,630 lots, a decrease of 35,230 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 21,389 lots, a decrease of 1,813 lots. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 5,085, an increase of 232; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 19, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,541 yuan/ton, an increase of 224 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,932 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 13,928 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan. - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 22,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,599 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224 yuan. - The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850 thousand tons, an increase of 65 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton was 120 thousand tons, an increase of 30 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 150,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit from imported cotton was 1,613 yuan/ton, an increase of 212 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 468360 thousand tons, an increase of 175300 thousand tons. - The inventory days of yarn were 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey fabric were 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cloth was 2.81 billion meters, an increase of 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.039 million tons, an increase of 0.038 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 11,593,686 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,275,733,101,731.408 thousand US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for cotton was 12.57%, an increase of 3.13%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for cotton was 12.54%, an increase of 3.07%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.95%, an increase of 2.73%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.28%, an increase of 1.07% [2]. Industry News - In 2025, the national cotton sowing area was 2,979.2 thousand hectares, an increase of 140.9 thousand hectares or 5.0% compared to 2024. The sowing area in Xinjiang was 3,887.5 million mu, an increase of 215.6 million mu or 5.9%. - The national cotton unit - area yield was 2,229.0 kg/ha, an increase of 57.4 kg/ha or 2.6% compared to 2024. - The national cotton total output was 6.641 million tons, an increase of 477 thousand tons or 7.7% compared to 2024. - According to the USDA report, for the week ending December 11, 2025/26, the net export sales of US upland cotton increased by 304,700 bales, a 99% increase from the previous week and a 95% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 134,400 bales, a 32% increase from the previous week and a 17% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [2].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 姓名：薛国鹏 F3073406 Z0017173 期货方面：本周螺纹 05 合约在多头主力先增仓后减仓驱动下维持窄幅整理 走势。截止周五，螺纹 05 合约收于 3118 元/吨，环比上周持平。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格开始小幅下调，整体成交一般。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价下调 8 元至 3316 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格下调 10 元至 3290 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格下调 10 元至 3310 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格上调 10 元至 3140 元/吨； 天津地区螺纹价下调 10 元至 3160 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格下 调 20 元至 3490 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.32%，环比减少 0.15%， 同比减少 0.39%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 84.94%，环比增加 0.01%， 同比减少 0.61%；全国 90 家电炉钢厂平均开工率 67.63%，环比 下降 1.6%，同比下降 1.25%；电炉平均产能利用率 53.22%，环 比下降 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both PE and PP is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to move in a range [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is bullish, basis is neutral, profit is bearish, valuation is bullish, and macro - policy is neutral. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [2] - For PP, the supply is bullish, demand is bearish, inventory is bullish, basis is neutral, profit is neutral, valuation is neutral, and macro - policy is neutral. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: This week, China's PE production was 67.22 tons, a 1.09% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 84.11%, a 0.06 - percentage - point increase. New maintenance at Dushanzi Petrochemical was offset by restarts of some existing plants [2] - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate decreased. In November, imports were 106.22 tons, a 9.93% year - on - year decrease and a 5.04% month - on - month increase, due to delayed shipments in October and more Iranian resources arriving in November [2] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of Chinese PE producers was 45.86 tons, a 5.99% decrease from the previous period. Producers cut prices to reduce inventory, and downstream factories replenished at low prices [2] - **Basis**: The current main - contract basis is around 173, with the futures price at a discount [2] - **Profit**: Oil - and methanol - based production costs increased, while coal - and ethane - based costs decreased. The overall profit situation is bearish [2] - **Valuation**: The spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a discount [2] PP Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: This week, domestic PP production was 79.37 tons, a 3.18% decrease from last week but a 10.56% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 76.87%, a 2.53% decrease [3] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%. Weak cost support and pessimistic market sentiment among industry players [3] - **Inventory**: Producer inventory decreased by 0.45 tons (0.84%), port inventory increased by 0.12 tons (1.78%), and trader inventory decreased by 1.11 tons (5.62%) [3] - **Basis**: The current main - contract basis is around - 82, with the futures price at a premium [3] - **Profit**: Profits from some production methods improved, while others declined. The average weekly import profit was - 328.98 yuan/ton, a 1.49% decrease from last week [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a premium [3] Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price increased by 1.27%, PE futures price increased by 2.29%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 2.95% [4] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: PP production increased by 4.54%, PE production decreased by 1.09%, PP start - up rate increased by 1.87%, PE start - up rate decreased by 1.46% [4] - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 4.70%, PE social inventory increased by 1.97% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot prices, fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It also provides data on domestic and international supply and demand, as well as weather conditions in major producing regions [1][2][4][6][9][11][12][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures contracts, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil, are presented. Additionally, the latest prices and percentage changes of several currency indices are provided [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions of China, as well as the CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different countries [2] 3.3 Key Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Producing Area Weather - In Brazil, rainfall in eastern São Paulo and Minas Gerais decreased last week but is expected to return this week; weather conditions in other regions are generally favorable for soybean growth. In Argentina, soil moisture in the major soybean - producing areas is mostly suitable for soybean growth [4] 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - From December 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, while export volume increased according to different institutions. In Brazil, the nutritional growth of soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul is satisfactory, and the yield is expected to increase significantly. In Argentina, the soybean planting rate as of December 23 was 77% [6][7] 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 52nd week of 2025 decreased, and the estimated crushing volume in January 2026 increased year - on - year. Pig farming is in a loss, and the prices of agricultural products have changed slightly [9][10] 3.4 Macro News 3.4.1 International News - Japan's November unemployment rate remained stable at 2.6%. Japan's December Tokyo CPI and core CPI annual rates decreased, and the unadjusted CPI monthly rate was negative [11] 3.4.2 Domestic News - On December 26, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased (the yuan appreciated). The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection on the day and a net withdrawal for the week. The profit of national industrial enterprises from January to November increased slightly year - on - year, but decreased in November [12] 3.5 Fund Flows - On December 26, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 34.966 billion yuan, with different inflow and outflow situations in various sub - markets [15] 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.7万吨，环比有所减少1.13%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.7万吨，环比减少4.93%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为30.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1724元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为65.53%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.1万吨，处于高位，进口利润为307元/吨，A356铝送至无锡 运费和利润为551.63元/吨，再生铝开工率为60.8%，环比增加1.67%,处于 高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏 ...

黑色：期市氛围偏暖 黑色窄幅震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-29 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 周度报告：期市氛围偏暖 黑色窄幅震荡 品种 基本面分析 展望 板块综述：上周黑色板块窄幅震荡运行，就指数涨跌幅度而言，品种间强弱关系为焦煤>热卷>焦炭>铁矿>螺纹，从整个期货市场 来看，氛围偏暖，商品价格普涨，有色板块一骑绝尘，能化板块多品种涨幅也在5%上下，黑色板块表现相对偏弱。宏观政策方面：国务 院常务会议，要求加快制定具体实施方案，靠前发力抓落实，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步。供需格局方面：钢材产量、表需同比都处 于低位，库存去化依旧顺畅，短期供需矛盾不大，随着钢厂盈利企稳，铁水产量止降，负反馈暂时难以顺畅进行。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格回升至电炉谷电成本以上，静态估值中性；驱动方面，重磅会议 | 震荡运行，短线交易。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 相继落地，预期平稳，短期没有增量政策出台，我国对钢铁实施出口许可证管理，钢材出口存在 | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core Views - Various energy and chemical futures are in different market conditions, including high - level oscillations, limited upward space, and potential for rebounds or continued weakness [2]. - Each commodity's market situation is influenced by factors such as supply and demand, device operations, and macro - economic conditions [8][9][10]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level oscillation market. Supply is marginally loose while demand is decreasing, but the tight - balance pattern remains due to high polyester开工率. Attention should be paid to position management before the festival [8]. - **PTA**: High - level oscillation market. Supply decreases and demand increases, with continuous inventory reduction, which is beneficial for the performance of spreads and basis [9]. - **MEG**: There is an expectation of supply contraction. It is in a price - range oscillation market. Although inventory accumulation is hard to change, the situation may improve marginally. Interval operations are recommended [10]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. Commodity preference sentiment has supported price increases, but factors such as port inventory accumulation and overseas supply pressure still exist [13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center of synthetic rubber is moving up. However, near - term fundamental weakness restricts the upward elasticity of prices. The butadiene raw material has a neutral short - term fundamental situation [15][17]. Asphalt - The asphalt spot price is temporarily stable. The total domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is expected to decline. Factory inventory is decreasing while social inventory is mixed [18][28]. LLDPE - The LLDPE basis is weak, and spot transactions are concentrated in the middle stream. The market faces supply - demand pressure from high capacity and weakening demand [29][30]. PP - In January, multiple PDH units are planned for maintenance, and the PP market is stabilizing and oscillating. The cost support is limited, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units [32][33]. Caustic Soda - The short - term rebound of caustic soda is limited in height, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. It has a high - production and high - inventory pattern with weak demand [35][36]. Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The market is affected by factors such as exchange rates, downstream demand, and cost expectations, with no clear one - sided driving force [39][42]. Methanol - Methanol is oscillating. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the near - term fundamental pressure increases. It is in a pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - situation [45][48]. Urea - Urea is in short - term oscillation. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased, providing support for prices. The 05 contract has a support level due to strong agricultural demand expectations in 2026 [50][53]. Styrene - Styrene is in short - term oscillation. The processing fee is expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2026, but there are risks from downstream inventory and demand [54][57]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving forces [58]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and there is an expectation of a rebound from the bottom [58]. PVC - The short - term rebound of PVC is limited in height. It has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and large - scale supply reduction is expected after the 03 contract [66][68]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is mainly in a night - session adjustment trend and may remain strong in the short term [71]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [71]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in high - level oscillation. The futures are rising, and the spot sales have improved [73]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in high - level oscillation. The raw material futures are rising, and the market transaction atmosphere is fair [74]. Offset Printing Paper - The offset printing paper market is in a wait - and - see state. The spot price is stable, and the market transaction is not active [76][77]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation. It is currently in a "weak chemical reality" situation, but the market may improve in the second quarter of 2026 [81][82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market [1][6] - PTA: High-level volatile market [1][7] - MEG: Limited upside space, medium-term pressure, price range volatile market [1][8] Core Views - PX is expected to maintain a high-level volatile market due to increased supply and decreased demand, but the tight balance pattern cannot be falsified for now [6] - PTA is in a high-level volatile market with supply reduction and demand increase, leading to continuous inventory depletion and positive impacts on monthly spreads and basis [7] - MEG is in a price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the supply is expected to shrink, and the inventory accumulation expectation has marginally improved [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - An 700,000-ton PX unit in the Northeast is currently restarting, and its capacity will expand to 1 million tons/year after restart [2] - A 3.6-million-ton PTA unit in East China is currently increasing its load [2] - A 550,000-ton/year MEG unit in Saudi Arabia has returned to normal operation, and another 450,000-ton/year MEG unit will undergo planned maintenance in Q1. Two 700,000-ton/year MEG units are in different states of parking and restart [2][3] - A 200,000-ton polyester unit in Wujiang and a 300,000-ton polyester bottle chip unit in South China have restarted, while a 200,000-ton direct-spun polyester staple fiber factory in Anhui plans to stop for maintenance on January 28 and restart in early March, and a 1.2-million-ton polyester bottle chip factory in Jiangyin plans to stop for maintenance in mid-January and restart in March [5] Price Quotes - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF prices rose, SC price fell, and MEG price slightly increased. Some of their monthly spreads also changed [2] - **Spot**: PX, PTA, MEG, and Dated Brent prices increased, and the prices of other spots also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX-naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, and short fiber processing fee increased, while bottle chip processing fee decreased, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil price spread slightly increased [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is marginally loosening, and demand is decreasing, but the tight balance pattern persists [6] - **PTA**: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, and inventory is continuously depleted [7] - **MEG**: Supply is expected to shrink, price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the situation has marginally improved [8]