Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 5% of the country's physical network retail sales [2][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from bulk purchasing to "small quantity, multiple times" is driven by smaller family structures and a faster-paced lifestyle, which enhances the demand for instant retail [5][23] - Instant retail is anticipated to drive growth in instant logistics, benefiting companies like SF Holding, and the deployment of smart delivery lockers is also expected to gain traction [2][5] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Emergence - Instant retail is experiencing explosive growth, with major players like JD and Alibaba investing heavily in this sector [15][19] - The transition from distant e-commerce to near-field retail reflects a strong consumer demand for instant gratification [16][23] Opportunities in Transportation and Logistics - The growth of instant retail is expected to stimulate the logistics sector, with a projected increase in online takeaway market size to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan by 2025, representing about 30% of China's dining consumption [43][48] - Instant delivery orders are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, reaching 48.3 billion orders in 2024, driven by the expansion of flash warehouses and the need for efficient delivery solutions [49][52] Travel Chain Insights - Domestic passenger volume is showing a stable increase, with a 4% year-on-year rise in the week of July 11, while international passenger volume increased by 16% [64] - The average domestic ticket price has seen a slight decline of 6.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on short-term revenues despite improving demand [62][64] Maritime and Logistics Developments - The maritime sector is witnessing a rebound, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 9.7% to $27,000 per day, driven by active cargo demand in the Middle East [29][30] - The logistics sector is focusing on addressing "involution" in the express delivery market, with a 16.6% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, indicating robust industry growth [6][20]

【环球时报报道 记者 杨沙沙】编者的话：稳定币（Stablecoin）是一种通过锚定特定资产维持价格稳定的加密货币，旨在解决比特币等传统加密 货币价格波动过大的问题。美国众议院宣布，将当地时间7月14日至18日命名为"加密货币周"，审议三项重要的加密货币立法，包括《指导与建立 美国稳定币国家创新法案》（其英文单词首字母缩写为GENIUS，因此又称《天才法案》）。为何稳定币会获得美国政府格外关注？美国推行稳 定币，背后目的是什么？推行稳定币，会对全球产生什么影响？世界金融历史学者、《货币战争》系列丛书编著宋鸿兵近日接受《环球时报》记 者专访时表示，美国力推稳定币，背后瞄准的是美元的增量地区，但并不能像美国政客所盘算的那样，可以提振美债需求，也难以帮助美元进一 步巩固或者延长"美元霸权寿命"。 华尔街 " 怕动了他们的蛋糕 " 环球时报： 普遍认为，2014年，加密货币交易平台Bitfinex组建的泰达公司发行了以1∶1比率锚定美元的"泰达币"，是最早的稳定币。近十年，华尔 街对稳定币发展持什么态度？ 宋鸿兵： 从技术角度来说，稳定币背后的区块链技术，代表了技术的一个重大创新，它自然发展这么多年有其道理。稳定币面 ...

Core Insights - Singapore's retail sales showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and a month-on-month increase of 1.0% in May, marking the strongest monthly performance of the year and the third consecutive month of positive year-on-year growth [1][2] - The automotive sector played a crucial role in driving retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% in May, supported by stable domestic economic conditions and government policies [1][2] - Online retail transactions accounted for 12.3% of total sales in May, with significant contributions from categories like computers and telecommunications equipment, and furniture and home equipment [1][2] Retail Category Performance - Different retail categories exhibited varied performance; cosmetics, personal care, and medical products saw sales growth of 2%, 7%, and 4.5% respectively, while department stores, food and alcoholic beverages, and clothing and footwear experienced declines of 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.3% [2] - The food service industry also experienced growth, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4% in May, driven by a 17.2% rise in food delivery services [2] Emerging Trends - Consumer expectations for shopping experiences are evolving, with a growing demand for convenience and personalized services, prompting retailers to enhance operational models and adopt new technologies [3] - There is an increasing focus on sustainable products among consumers, leading retailers to introduce eco-friendly product lines and promote them through online channels [3] - The combination of strong automotive sales, stable online retail growth, and the recovery of the food service sector is propelling the development of Singapore's retail market [3]

刚刚过去的周末，外卖补贴大战硝烟继续。 淘宝闪购、美团再次发放外卖大额券，平台订单迎来明显增长。这场流量狂欢，也持续引发业内人士的 思考：外卖平台为争夺流量而展开激烈的补贴竞争，短期内对消费者和部分商家形成利好，但从长期来 看，仅凭低价难以形成客户黏性，只有提升服务价值，才能实现长期发展。 "疯狂星期六"再现 大额补贴让各平台订单迎来明显增长。7月13日，证券时报记者从美团方面获悉，截至7月12日23时36 分，美团即时零售订单量再创新高，达1.5亿单。数据还显示，餐饮商家在美团的订单量比日常时段增 长了65%，美团全量配送订单平均送达时间为34分钟。另据稍早消息，7月周末美团骑手日收入增长 111%，超过40万众包骑手日收入超500元。 作为本轮外卖补贴大战的"点火者"之一，淘宝闪购在7月2日宣布，将在未来12个月内发放500亿元平台 补贴。彼时美团方面虽然没有官宣，但在7月5日突然抛出大额补贴。随后双方各自发布"战报"，美团宣 布即时零售当日订单突破了1.2亿单，淘宝闪购、饿了么联合宣布日订单数超8000万单，淘宝闪购日活 跃用户超过2亿。 京东方面也动作频频。7月8日，京东外卖宣布正式启动"双百计划"， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Notice on the Construction of Zero Carbon Parks" by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Energy Administration establishes unified standards for zero carbon park construction, emphasizing energy structure transformation, energy conservation, carbon reduction, and resource optimization [1][2][3]. Group 1: Key Tasks and Standards - The "Notice" outlines eight key tasks for accelerating the transformation of energy structures in parks, promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction, optimizing industrial structures, and enhancing resource efficiency [1]. - It specifies that national-level zero carbon parks must meet certain energy consumption and carbon emission standards, with parks consuming 200,000 to 1,000,000 tons of standard coal required to have carbon emissions ≤0.2 tons/ton of standard coal, and those consuming over 1,000,000 tons required to have emissions ≤0.3 tons/ton [1][3]. Group 2: Development Context and Challenges - Since the introduction of the "dual carbon" goals in 2020, industrial carbon peak policies have been established, aiming to create green low-carbon industrial parks and promote comprehensive energy resource utilization by 2025 [2]. - Despite the policy support, challenges remain in defining the concept of "zero carbon parks," establishing boundaries, and calculating carbon emissions, as well as the need for inter-departmental collaboration [2]. Group 3: Core Indicators and Conditions - The "Notice" introduces "unit energy consumption carbon emissions" as the core indicator for evaluating zero carbon parks, allowing for differentiated carbon emission targets based on total energy consumption [3]. - Four basic conditions for constructing zero carbon parks are outlined, including the requirement for the construction entity to be a provincial-level development zone and the need for a solid foundation in energy consumption and carbon emission statistics [3]. Group 4: Renewable Energy Integration - The "Notice" emphasizes the need for parks to enhance the development and utilization of renewable energy, encouraging the integration of green electricity supply models and participation in green certificate trading [4][5]. - It highlights the importance of developing new models for local renewable energy consumption to alleviate pressure on the national grid, indicating that zero carbon park construction serves as a crucial step in the green low-carbon transition [5][6].

事实上，从7月5日开始，大额补贴陆续放出，大量消费者涌入美团和淘宝闪购，抢起外卖券。记者发 现，本周末的外卖大额券延续上周末的外卖狂欢，且集中在咖啡茶饮品牌。网友们纷纷表示，自己已经 胖了好几斤了。还有网友直呼，0元喝奶茶，喝出糖尿病。 此外，外卖骑手也直呼"爆单"。有报道称，一位成都的外卖骑手表示，这两天平台发大量券，骑手们的 单量也上来了，有的同行一天甚至可以跑200单，收入超千元。 7月5日，美团宣布单日零售订单达到1.2亿单，其中餐饮订单则超过1亿单。当天晚间8时45分，美团内 网显示平台即时零售日订单突破1亿单。 7月7日，淘宝闪购和饿了么联合宣布，淘宝闪购日订单数超8000万单，其中非餐饮订单超1300万单，淘 宝闪购日活跃用户超2亿。 对于"外卖大战"升级，有业内人士分析指出，之前的补贴基本上是无差别地拉新留新，力度总体上还是 比较小，但是当前的补贴则是有意在打一场"长期战"，暴露了外卖平台抢夺即时零售市场份额的野心。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 淘宝闪购甩出"满18减18"的大招，美团外卖红包立刻以"0元喝奶茶"反击，京东宣布每晚10万份，一口 价16.18元小龙虾……近日，各家电商平台打响了新 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the rapid growth of instant retail, with daily order volumes for Taobao Flash Sale and Meituan Flash Sale reaching new highs, indicating a competitive landscape among major platforms [5][25] - The report emphasizes the shift in the instant retail industry from speed competition to comprehensive strength competition, driven by significant investments from major e-commerce platforms [26] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes [8][29] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index rose by 2.20% during the week of July 7 to July 11, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.11 percentage points [7][14] - The internet e-commerce sector showed the largest increase among retail sub-sectors, with a weekly rise of 4.37% [17][20] Retail Insights: Instant Retail Competition - Taobao Flash Sale and Meituan Flash Sale reported daily order volumes exceeding 80 million and 150 million, respectively, contributing significantly to market growth [5][25] - Major platforms are implementing substantial subsidy programs to support merchant transformations, indicating a trend towards a three-way competitive landscape [26] Focus on High-Growth Quality Companies - Investment themes include: - **Gold and Jewelry**: Focus on brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [8][29] - **Offline Retail**: Emphasizing companies that adapt to trends, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [8][29] - **Cosmetics**: Highlighting domestic brands with strong differentiation, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [8][29] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Focusing on companies with differentiated product lines, recommending Aimeike and Kedi-B [8][29] Company-Specific Insights - **Zhou Dafu**: FY2025 revenue of 89.66 billion HKD (-17.5%), net profit of 5.916 billion HKD (-9.0%), focusing on product structure optimization [31][36] - **Laopuhuangjin**: FY2024 revenue of 8.506 billion CNY (+167.5%), net profit of 1.473 billion CNY (+253.9%), benefiting from brand expansion [31][36] - **Chaohongji**: 2025Q1 revenue of 2.252 billion CNY (+25.4%), net profit of 189 million CNY (+44.4%), driven by differentiated product offerings [31][39] - **Mao Ge Ping**: FY2024 revenue of 3.885 billion CNY (+34.6%), net profit of 881 million CNY (+33.0%), focusing on high-end cosmetics [31][39] - **Polaya**: FY2024 revenue of 10.778 billion CNY (+21.0%), net profit of 1.552 billion CNY (+30.0%), maintaining a strong position in the domestic market [31][39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The return of everyday dining and the rise of home-cooked meals are significant trends, with the market for casual dining exceeding 1.2 trillion RMB, emphasizing high cost-performance [5][58] - The creator economy, particularly in the music streaming sector, is experiencing stable growth, with platforms enhancing their bargaining power through non-music content [22][24] - The casual dining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 55.87 billion RMB by 2028 [56][58] Summary by Sections 1. Trend in Casual Dining - The average spending on Chinese dining has decreased from 87.6 RMB in 2023 to 79.2 RMB in 2024, a decline of 9.6% [53][55] - The casual dining market is characterized by a shift towards high cost-performance and practicality, with a significant increase in home cooking frequency [53][56] - The market for affordable casual dining (under 100 RMB per meal) is the largest segment, accounting for 88.7% of the total dining market, with a current size of 36.18 billion RMB [56][58] 2. Creator Economy and Music Streaming - The global music streaming market is projected to reach over 20.4 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [27][30] - Subscription users in the music streaming sector are expected to grow to 263 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11% year-on-year [30] - Spotify's market penetration in emerging markets is driving user growth, with a CAGR of 35% from 2021 to 2025 [26][30] 3. Trends in Toy and Creator Economy - The online sales of trendy toys in June 2025 reached 1.348 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [12][14] - The sales of blind boxes and plush toys showed strong performance, with blind boxes growing by 109% year-on-year [12][13] - The creator economy is bolstered by the growth of non-music content, enhancing platforms' bargaining power [22][24] 4. Beauty and Personal Care Market - The skincare market on Tmall has seen a concentration increase, with the top 20 brands accounting for 46.2% of the total GMV [66] - Domestic brands have seen a decline in both quantity and market share, while international brands have experienced double-digit growth [66][67]

Domestic News - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment support policies, expanding the scope of special loans for stabilizing jobs and increasing the unemployment insurance refund ratio for related enterprises. The refund ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises is raised from a maximum of 60% to 90%, while for large enterprises, it is increased from 30% to 50% [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that China's economic increment over the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to the total economic output of the top three provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong) in 2024, surpassing the Yangtze River Delta region and contributing around 30% to global economic growth annually [2] - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.7%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4% [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange released guidelines for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, allowing 32 existing unprofitable companies to enter the growth layer immediately, with no additional listing thresholds for new unprofitable companies [4] - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to $3.3174 trillion, with the central bank increasing gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, now totaling approximately 2,298.55 tons [4] - The new commercial health insurance innovative drug directory was launched, focusing on high-innovation drugs that cannot be included in the basic medical insurance directory, aiming to enhance the multi-tiered drug security system [5] - In the first half of the year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 15 million units, with new energy vehicles showing remarkable performance, achieving a production increase of 41.4% and sales increase of 40.3% [6] International News - The U.S. President announced significant tariffs on various countries, including a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods and 35% on Canadian goods, which could impact international trade dynamics [8] - The European Union expressed strong dissatisfaction with the U.S. tariff threats, emphasizing the need to reduce dependency on the U.S. and protect transatlantic supply chains [9] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicated that the changing economic policy environment complicates decision-making, with expectations that tariffs may drive inflation up and hinder economic growth [9]

阿里美团外卖大战周末升级，开启新一轮外卖疯狂补贴。 7月12日，美团、淘宝闪购等平台再次分别发放外卖大额券，其中包括"满25减21""满25减20"等多张大 额券，部分外卖可"零元购"。 若即时零售失守，对于淘宝、美团、京东任何一家来说，都可能变成不能承受之重。高频流量入口竞争 不力，必然会导致生态价值萎缩。 因此，外卖的竞争，不仅上了强度，也上了高度。这场以外卖之名开启的争夺战，逐渐演变成阿里、美 团、京东对自身零售业务，尤其是即时零售的升级。 美团CEO王兴表态，会不惜一切代价赢得竞争。阿里巴巴CEO吴泳铭说，这是阿里从电商平台走向大消 费平台的战略升级。 京东要用外卖的战役，找回"失落的五年"，而淘宝需要一场新的胜利，覆盖电商基本盘之外的业务版 图，美团则要和京东、天猫争抢电商生意。 接连两周，横跨多平台的外卖大战轮番上演，几大平台的慷慨程度可谓前所未有。 这次外卖大战突然升级的诱因，表面看是美团京东夹击下的阿里。美团与老对手饿了么战斗多年，这次 直接对向"淘宝闪购"。 在今年以前很长的一段时间里，外卖行业都是美团和饿了么的天下。虽然美团占据优势，但饿了么虽有 远虑并无近忧。然而，京东的强势入局打破了这 ...