Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has seen six consecutive days of gains, nearing a bull market and only 3% away from its historical high [1] - Concerns arise after Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, leading to a potential "sell-off" pattern among global investors [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the downgrade was anticipated, and the market is better prepared compared to previous downgrades, resulting in less volatility [3][4] Group 2 - Fundstrat's Thomas Lee downplays the significance of the downgrade, stating it reflects known facts about the US deficit [4] - The current environment of declining interest rate expectations may mitigate the impact of the downgrade on US assets [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts could pressure the stock market if economic uncertainty persists [5] Group 3 - Retail investors have significantly increased their buying activity, with a record net purchase of $4.1 billion in US stocks on May 19 [6][8] - The influx of retail investment contrasts with institutional caution, leading to a divergence in market behavior [8][9] - The optimism among retail investors is attributed to a perceived easing of trade tensions, despite underlying risks [8][9] Group 4 - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon warns of extreme complacency in the market, highlighting underestimation of risks related to the US deficit and tariffs [9] - Dimon predicts a potential decline in earnings forecasts, which could negatively impact stock prices [9][10] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor key factors such as tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve policies for future market direction [10][11] Group 5 - The current valuation of the US stock market is above 21 times earnings, which is considered high compared to other countries [11] - Future performance may depend on the progress of trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [11] - Analysts suggest that investors may need to balance their portfolios as the market approaches its historical highs [11]

研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 度陷入僵局，未来经济预期摇摆不定，金银比中长期中枢上移的背景下，金银价走势相关性下行，白银或 维持震荡偏弱运行。短期内，贵金属市场或维持区间震荡格局，关注后续关税谈判进展以及美联储官员最 免责声明 新发言。操作上建议，暂时观望为主，沪金2508合约关注区间：730-770元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 7800-8200元/千克。COMEX黄金期货关注区间：3200-3260美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货关注区间：31.20- 32.80美元/盎司。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is considering including "tax rate reduction" as an option in negotiations with the U.S. regarding tariffs, particularly concerning previously requested automotive additional tariffs and reciprocal tariffs [1] Group 1: Negotiation Context - The decision to consider tax rate reduction comes in response to U.S. President Trump's negative stance on tariff removal and the U.S. reaching multiple tax reduction agreements with China and the UK [1] - The aim of this consideration is to break the deadlock in Japan-U.S. negotiations [1] Group 2: Upcoming Meetings - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akira Amari, is scheduled to attend the third ministerial meeting on May 23, Eastern Time [1] - Negotiation insiders indicate that the U.S. has consistently refused to remove tariffs and intends to exclude Japan's key concerns regarding additional tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum from discussions [1] Group 3: Perception of Tariff Applicability - Following the U.S.-UK agreement on "limited import quantity low tariff quotas," there is a general belief in Japan that "automotive tariffs could also be applicable" [1]

日美第三轮关税谈判拟于23日举行 智通财经5月20日电，日本政府20日着手展开协调，拟由经济再生担当相赤泽亮正22日起访美，23日与 美方展开第三轮关税谈判。美国财政部长贝森特预计将缺席，谈判对象或为贸易代表办公室（USTR） 代表格里尔等人。 ...

基本金属 | | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：昨日在穆迪下调美国主权信用评级后，美元走弱明显，贵金属 | | | | | | 铜 | | 和铜得到支撑。供应端，铜矿紧张格局延续。换月后，现货紧张格局延续，华东华南平水铜现货升水 420 元 | | | | | | | | 和 220 元，back 结构依然偏强。周度国内库存增加 0.72 万吨。交易策略：以宽幅震荡思路对待。风险提示： | | | | | | | | 全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.20%，收于 20110 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 170 元/吨， | | | | | | | | LME 价格 2450 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | | | 铝 | | | | | | | | | | 题有 ...

Economic Overview - Industrial production shows resilience with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% in April and 6.4% from January to April, driven by strong export performance [1] - Total goods import and export in April reached 38,391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with exports at 22,645 billion yuan, growing by 9.3% [1] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales totaled 37,174 billion yuan in April, up 5.1% year-on-year, primarily supported by subsidies [3] - Categories like clothing and tobacco saw declines, while home appliances and furniture benefited from trade-in policies, although the effectiveness of such policies is diminishing [3][4] - Tourism emerged as a bright spot, with 1.467 billion people traveling during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [6][8] Investment Trends - Investment in real estate and infrastructure has unexpectedly declined, with real estate development investment down 10.3% year-on-year [9][11] - Excluding real estate, fixed asset investment growth increased from 4% to 8% [11] - The decline in investment is attributed to increased uncertainty due to tariff impacts, necessitating further stimulus policies to boost domestic demand [11][12] Market Dynamics - The stock market has shown limited movement, with significant fluctuations but no clear trend in index performance [13] - New consumption trends, particularly among younger demographics, are emerging, characterized by unique consumption models such as blind box purchases and pet-related products [14][15] - The outlook for the market remains cautious, with ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S. regarding tariffs being a critical factor for future economic sentiment [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term price may fluctuate, but long - term strategic allocation value is high [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment, and the previous interval trading idea can be continued [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions gradually, but long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Hold short positions for zinc as supply increases and demand is weak in the long - run [1]. - Lead and tin prices are expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - Aluminum price rebounds and then falls [1]. - Nickel price rebounds under pressure [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to supply - demand imbalance [1]. - For lithium carbonate, hold short positions as the fundamental outlook is bearish [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold price fell more than 2% during Russia - Ukraine negotiations, then the decline narrowed. Silver also showed price fluctuations. For example, SHFE gold rose 1.62% from the previous value, and SHFE silver rose 1.16% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply, credit rating was downgraded, and Russia - Ukraine negotiations made no progress. Short - term upward momentum is weakened, but long - term factors support gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, gold may fluctuate after adjustment, focus on the performance around 740 - 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization. Silver may continue to trade in the range of [8000, 8200] [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, testing the lower support level. For example, the price of SHFE copper main contract decreased by 0.82% [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight. Trump's copper import tariff policy is drying up non - U.S. copper inventories, but there is a risk of price decline in mid - to - late May [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions at high levels. Be cautious of high - level decline risks. Short - term, focus on the range of [77000, 78000] for SHFE copper and [9200, 9600] for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc price oscillated and declined, retesting the bottom. For example, the price of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 0.49% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the overall performance is lower than previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous short positions. In the long - run, look for opportunities to short at high levels. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2600, 2700] for LME zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum price rebounded and then fell, while alumina rebounded significantly. For example, the price of SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.27% [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas trade environment eases. Aluminum inventory decreases, but demand is further differentiated. Alumina supply is in excess, and attention should be paid to ore - end disturbances [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see for SHFE aluminum, focus on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19900 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to stabilize [11]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel price rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel was under pressure. For example, the price of LME nickel decreased by 1.27% [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas environment eases. Mine - end policies in the Philippines and Indonesia support nickel price, but domestic inventory is still high. Stainless steel inventory pressure is slightly reduced [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focus on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 129000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2507 opened low and went lower, hitting a new low with significant increase in positions [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamental outlook is bearish. Raw material prices continue to fall, supply is sufficient, demand is entering the off - season, and inventory is increasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions in the range of [61000 - 62300] [15].

Group 1 - Japan is considering a plan to subsidize the construction of Tesla's electric vehicle charging stations during tariff negotiations with the U.S. [2] - Currently, Japan's subsidy policy only covers charging stations based on the domestic "CHAdeMO" standard, excluding Tesla's "Superchargers" [2] - The U.S. Trade Representative has expressed concerns regarding this issue and has requested improvements from Japan [2] Group 2 - Japan's negotiation strategy appears to be shifting, as representatives have indicated a willingness to discuss reducing U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts, and a 24% tariff on other products [2] - This change in attitude suggests a potential compromise from Japan, which is crucial for its economy as the automotive sector is a key industry [2] - The upcoming third round of tariff negotiations is set to take place, with Japan's chief trade negotiator possibly traveling to Washington [3] Group 3 - The previous two rounds of negotiations did not result in consensus, and Japan's consideration of subsidies for Tesla charging stations may serve as leverage for the upcoming talks [3] - Domestic pressures in Japan, such as dissatisfaction from agricultural lobbying groups over increased U.S. agricultural imports and the upcoming Senate elections in July, could influence the outcome of the negotiations [3] - The global community is closely watching the developments in the third round of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations [3]

不过业内人士强调，只有经济实力雄厚且对美贸易依赖度低的国家才可能对美国采取强硬态度，而像越 南这样对美贸易依赖度高的国家，实质上缺乏谈判筹码。 文章写道，一周以前中美谈判在日内瓦取得突破，双方同意在90天内降低关税，将税率下调115%，为 两国有望持续且艰难的多轮谈判奠定了框架。尤其是美国总统特朗普向中方作出的大幅让步，让从韩国 到欧盟的各国政府感到惊讶，这些政府此前一直听从美国的谈判请求，而没有对其关税措施进行报复。 "中国在与美国谈判时的强硬立场，让一些国家开始相信，他们在与特朗普政府的贸易谈判中需要采取 更加强硬的立场。"文章直言，在中国强硬谈判策略获得了一项有利的贸易协议后，那些采取更外交 化、快速解决途径的国家开始质疑自己是否采取了正确的方式。 "这改变了谈判的态势，"前美国贸易谈判代表、现任新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究所客座高级研究员斯 蒂芬·奥尔森说，"许多国家会审视日内瓦谈判的结果，并得出结论认为，特朗普已经开始意识到自己高 估了自己的实力。" 尽管各国官员们不愿公开表明他们的态度有任何强硬的转变，但有迹象表明，尤其是一些大国，他们意 识到自己拥有的筹码比之前想象得更多，并且有能力放慢谈判的节奏 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 19 日 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,140 | 0.35% | 77670 | -0.60% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,440 | -1.67% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 72,311 | -37,865 | 180,490 | -6,084 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 7,610 | 1,376 | 294,000 | -171 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 63,247 | 2,712 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 179,375 | -5,275 | 40.08% | -1 ...