Group 1: Market Overview - The global gold market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical risks and monetary policy dynamics, with New York gold futures at $3379.9 per ounce and London spot gold at $3366.63 per ounce as of June 24, 2025, reflecting a slight decline of 0.17% [1] - Global gold investment demand surged by 170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with gold ETF net inflows reaching a record high of 226.5 tons, while central banks continued to increase their gold holdings for the 16th consecutive year [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - High trading costs are prevalent, with traditional platforms employing complex fee structures that can increase spreads by 1.5 times during volatile periods, eroding profits [3] - Liquidity issues are evident, with lengthy withdrawal processes averaging 2-3 days and slippage rates exceeding 1% on some platforms, causing missed opportunities during extreme market conditions [3] - Insufficient data transparency poses risks, including false quotes and untraceable trading records, leading to significant investor losses due to fraudulent platforms [3] Group 3: Company Solutions - Kingstone Precious Metals leverages a century-old regulatory framework and technological innovation to create a "safe, efficient, and transparent" trading ecosystem, addressing industry pain points [4] - The company adheres strictly to regulatory requirements, ensuring transaction traceability and operational transparency, with client funds held in licensed banks and rapid withdrawal processing [4] - Technological enhancements include integration with MT4 and MT5 platforms for rapid order execution, a unique "spread compensation plan" that reduces spreads to as low as $0.15 per ounce, and a zero-commission policy that can save high-frequency traders 30% on costs [5][6] Group 4: Service Offerings - Kingstone Precious Metals provides differentiated services for various investor levels, including simulated accounts for beginners, quick order placement and alerts for short-term traders, and a stable trading environment for long-term investors [7] - The platform's dynamic margin system helps users lock in arbitrage opportunities during market fluctuations, enhancing the trading experience [7] - The company's low fee structure and flexible contract designs make it an ideal choice for long-term asset allocation, capitalizing on trends such as central bank gold purchases and "de-dollarization" [7] Group 5: Conclusion - The current gold market is at a critical juncture, characterized by short-term pressures and long-term potential, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy [8] - Kingstone Precious Metals transforms industry challenges into functional solutions, providing a reliable channel for investors to navigate market volatility and achieve asset appreciation [8]

招商银行研究院将分章节为您推送《 逆风前行——2025年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望 》 本篇为文章第二、三部分， 海外宏观：韧性依旧，隐忧尚存；海外策略：中短美债占优，美股均衡配置。 更多精彩之后将陆续推送，敬请期待。 ■ 关税变局不断演变，我国经济挑战与机遇并存。 外需支撑或显著减退，内需能否稳固支撑是决定经济 动能变化的关键。基准情形下，预计全年实际GDP增长5%，GDP平减指数或下探至-1%。在供给端，企业 生产和利润温和承压。在需求端，出口增速显著放缓，消费对经济增长的贡献或有增强，房地产投资的拖 累或因体量收缩而边际减弱，基建投资维持高位，制造业投资温和放缓。经济运行或继续呈现供强需弱格 局，价格修复相应承压。 ■ 看境外市场， 去美元化逻辑或继续演绎，美股有望震荡上行，美债利率中枢维持高位，黄金 强者恒强，外汇市场或延续"美元弱，非美强"格局。 相关报告 《逆风前行——2025年中期宏观经济与资本市场展望①》 正文 海外宏观：韧性依旧，隐忧尚存 上半年，特朗普政府"削减政府开支+对等关税"组合拳扰动预期，市场一度担忧美国经济陷入衰退甚至滞胀， 美联储将于年内降息5次（125bp）。随着财政政策重回 ...

Group 1 - The global economy is undergoing profound structural changes, characterized by weak growth momentum, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and a dilemma of high inflation, high interest rates, high debt, and low growth [2] - Private entrepreneurs' ability to accurately assess the economic situation and grasp development trends will directly determine the scientific and feasible nature of corporate strategy formulation [3][4] - Many enterprises are still stuck in traditional development models, incurring high trial-and-error costs [3] Group 2 - The current global economic situation is viewed as the early stage of a Great Depression, which is a core manifestation of a century-long change [5] - The Great Depression is not a natural phenomenon but a forced correction due to long-term deviations from objective economic laws [5] - The evolution of this crisis is expected to present three stages: "value return period" (2023-2025), "structural adjustment period" (2026-2028), and "order reconstruction period" (2029-2031) [6] Group 3 - The current economic crisis is marked by a deep restructuring of the post-World War II international economic and political order [8] - The dollar is entering a historical "value return" process, with its share in international settlements dropping from 73% in 2001 to 47% today [9] - The new colonialism is in a "structural adjustment" decline cycle, with a significant shift towards decolonization movements led by countries like those in BRICS [10][11] Group 4 - The decoupling of the US and Chinese economies has initiated a new era of de-globalization, fundamentally altering the global economic landscape [12][13] - The current economic crisis is compounded by a technological revolution, with the fifth and sixth industrial revolutions reshaping industries and accelerating the pace of corporate evolution [14][15] Group 5 - The economic crisis is characterized by a "crisis transfer" mechanism, where developed countries are shifting internal crises externally through monetary, industrial, financial, and geopolitical dimensions [17][18] - The domestic economy is expected to face profound impacts, including a debt crisis for local governments and state-owned enterprises, leading to a series of chain reactions [19][20] Group 6 - A wave of bankruptcies and restructurings among private enterprises is anticipated, as the old growth model based on demographic, resource, reform, and industrial chain dividends is nearing exhaustion [21][22] - The A-share market is undergoing a significant valuation system reconstruction, with traditional fundraising models becoming increasingly unsustainable [22][23] Group 7 - The current economic downturn is expected to exacerbate social tensions, with rising litigation and social unrest due to economic pressures [24] - The crisis is likely to lead to a significant increase in the number of corporate bankruptcies, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises [24] Group 8 - To effectively respond to the economic crisis, a systematic crisis response mechanism is needed, focusing on local government debt resolution, financial system restructuring, and enterprise transformation [28][29] - Enterprises should adopt a digital asset strategy, enhance governance, and prepare for mixed ownership reforms to ensure adaptability and resilience [32][34]

新华财经北京6月24日电（马萌伟）今年以来，受美国关税政策和经济前景不确定性的拖累，全球投资 者正逐步降低美元资产配置，美元指数几乎呈现"自由落体式"下跌，今年已累计下跌约9.4%，或创下 1986年以来最差上半年表现。 有分析显示，美元下跌既非短期投机行为，也非周期性调整，美元真正的复苏可能还需数年时间。 降息预期增强美元再次走低 美银外汇策略团队指出，欧洲养老金、保险公司等机构是二季度美元暴跌的主推手，数周内将美元持仓 砍至2022年以来最低。但也研究显示，过去数月美元日均跌幅主要出现在亚洲交易时段，暗示亚洲美债 持有者可能也在加速对冲。 美元是否已超跌？ 鉴于外汇市场常有过度反应特性，当前美元是否已超跌、即将迎来技术性回调，确实值得商榷。就短期 而言，目前外汇市场正陷入两股力量的拉锯战——一方面美联储可能释放鸽派信号，另一方面中东冲突 推高油价，导致美元交易者陷入方向性分歧。 从长期来讲，真正值得关注的是资产管理机构的美元低配程度。美银调查显示，机构对美元资产的规避 已达20年峰值，这既源于对美国当前贸易政策、地缘立场及制度完整性的担忧，也反映美元结构性走弱 的大趋势。 知名财经博客网站Zerohedg ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a dramatic reversal on Monday, initially driven by geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude oil prices soaring by 6% before collapsing by 7% as the situation stabilized [1][2] - The easing of geopolitical risks led to a shift in focus towards macroeconomic factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes, as market participants anticipated a possible interest rate cut in July [2][3] - The dollar faced significant pressure, marking its worst first half since 1986, as investors adjusted their positions and reduced exposure to the currency [4][6] Group 2 - The shift in market sentiment indicates a potential transition in the macroeconomic landscape, with the possibility of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve becoming apparent [3][8] - The ongoing adjustments in the foreign exchange market reflect a systematic move towards de-dollarization, particularly in Asia, where U.S. bondholders are actively re-hedging their positions [6][7] - The current market dynamics suggest a focus on momentum trading, with investors chasing favorable capital flows while underlying macroeconomic changes are brewing [8][9]

近年来，美国对华政策越来越走向极端。 从特朗普政府大张旗鼓地发起"贸易战"，到疫情期间美国不断指责中国，再到拜登政府加大对华制裁力度，美国将中国视作"威胁"的言论变得越来越直白、 公开。特别是在一些美国政客眼中，宣扬"中国威胁论"，甚至成为"反华先锋"，似乎是为自己政治生涯获取关注和话语权的捷径。为了迎合这一政治需要， 某些政客频频发表无视事实、充满荒谬的言论。 近日，美国总统竞选人妮基·黑莉更是公开表示，若中国停止购买美国国债，她将在当选总统后对中国采取报复和打击措施。言辞如此激烈，简直让人难以 置信！ 黑莉的言论就像是强买强卖的典型强盗逻辑，简直让人忍不住发笑。自她宣布参选2024年美国总统以来，这位印度裔女性候选人凭借自己独特的身份和一系 列极端的言辞吸引了不少眼球。虽然她的言论引发了热议，但她并非真正的总统热门人选——不仅在民主党阵营中有众多有力的竞争对手，在共和党内部， 民调也显示她的支持率远远落后于特朗普和德桑蒂斯。 正因如此，黑莉才急于通过攻击中国来吸引选民眼球、拉拢支持。她这种做法，实在是荒唐可笑。而这也恰恰暴露了美国经济背后的隐患——美国经济正在 深陷困境，需要一位真正有能力的人来应对这一局 ...

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Group 1: Oil Market Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that if Iran disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices could spike to $110 per barrel, with a potential increase to $90 per barrel if Iranian oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day [1] - The report from Mitsubishi UFJ highlights that the Philippine peso, South Korean won, and Thai baht are more susceptible to rising oil prices, with a $10 per barrel increase potentially reducing Asia's current account positions by 0.2% to 0.9% of GDP [3] - Panmure Liberum warns that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, stock markets could face a decline of 10% to 20%, with significant inflationary impacts similar to those seen in 2022 [4] Group 2: Currency and Economic Outlook - HSBC analysts express concerns over the uncertainty of U.S. policies, suggesting that the dollar may face further depreciation, with the euro expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar by Q4 [2] - The report from Saxo Bank notes that countries heavily reliant on oil imports, such as India and Thailand, will face multiple challenges including rising energy costs and currency depreciation [2] Group 3: Investment Trends - Bank of America reports a growing interest in Japanese stocks as investors seek diversification due to high valuations in U.S. equities, despite ongoing trade uncertainties between the U.S. and Japan [2] - Citic Securities highlights the transformation of traditional cross-border payment systems, suggesting potential growth for participating banks amid a reshaping of the payment landscape [5]

Core Insights - The share of Renminbi (RMB) in global payment markets has significantly dropped to 2.89%, falling below the 3% mark and ranking sixth globally, overtaken by the Canadian dollar [1][2] - The decline in RMB's payment share is attributed to various factors, including market fluctuations and the diversification of RMB settlement channels, rather than solely the impact of trade tensions [2][7] Payment Share Overview - As of May 2024, the US dollar remains dominant with a 48.46% share, followed by the euro at 23.5%, which has increased by 1.4 percentage points [1] - The British pound holds a 7.1% share, while the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar account for 3.7% and 3.11% respectively, showing little change from previous months [1] RMB Payment Trends - RMB payment share fluctuated throughout 2024, peaking at 4.74% in July before declining to 2.9% in October, indicating normal monthly volatility rather than a definitive setback in internationalization [2][7] - The RMB's previous rise to the fourth largest payment currency was short-lived, with its share dropping significantly in recent months [2] CIPS and Internationalization Efforts - The China International Payment System (CIPS) is increasingly facilitating RMB settlements, with 180 direct participants and over 1,500 indirect participants across more than 180 countries [5] - CIPS processed 175 trillion RMB in cross-border payments in 2024, marking a 43% year-on-year increase, and has expanded its reach by adding new overseas financial institutions [5] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges faced by RMB internationalization, including significant gaps compared to the US dollar and euro, the potential for growth remains strong [7] - The rise of CIPS and the expansion of RMB swap agreements are seen as key drivers for the future of RMB internationalization [7]

美元霸权的"切尔诺贝利时刻"？——黄金大撤离与美联储的政治困境 历史学家或许会将2025年铭记为美元霸权崩塌的元年，以及黄金重回"货币之王"宝座的起点。这一年，政治对信任的摧毁，将人类重新推向对最原始硬通货 ——黄金的依赖。 这一切，都源于美国总统特朗普对美联储的持续施压，以及由此引发的全球黄金储备的"大撤离"。 2026年，现任美联储主席鲍威尔任期届满。此前，他或许从未料到自己会成为华盛顿政治角斗场中的一枚"人肉盾牌"。 特朗普在社交媒体上多次公开斥责 鲍威尔"动作迟缓"，并扬言在其任期结束后，将任命一位更为"听话"的美联储主席。此举赤裸裸地削弱了美联储的市场独立性，也对美元的信用造成了巨大 冲击。 德国和意大利，率先发出了将存放在美国的黄金运回本国的强烈呼声，这并非偶然。 这场围绕黄金的博弈，更像是一场精心编排的黑色喜剧。 美联储主席鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部坚称不会因总统压力而改变政策，然而，高盛的报告却一 针见血地指出：每当特朗普发出一条批评美联储的推文，市场对通胀的预期就会跳涨1个百分点。 德国和意大利，分别持有全球第二和第三大黄金储备，储量分别为3352吨和2452吨，这些黄金都存放于纽约联邦储备银 ...