Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics among traditional safe-haven currencies, particularly the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc, highlighting the latter's strengthening position as a preferred safe-haven currency amid political and economic uncertainties [1][11]. Group 1: US Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar's status as a global reserve currency is under threat due to increasing de-dollarization, with the dollar index dropping 9.37% in 2025 and further declines expected in 2026 [4]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are contributing to the dollar's weakness, with a 75% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in June, which is expected to support further declines in the dollar's value [5]. - The US fiscal deficit has reached historical highs, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 150%, raising concerns about the dollar's long-term stability [5][6]. Group 2: Japanese Yen Volatility - The Japanese yen has experienced significant volatility, with fluctuations driven by market speculation and intervention rumors, trading around 156 to 150 against the dollar in 2025 [7][8]. - The recent political developments in Japan, including the ruling party's electoral victory, may lead to more expansionary fiscal policies, potentially increasing inflationary pressures and prompting earlier interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [8][9]. - The yen's status as a funding currency may be challenged if Japanese investors shift their behavior, leading to capital outflows from dollar and euro assets back into yen [9]. Group 3: Swiss Franc Strength - The Swiss franc has appreciated nearly 13% against the US dollar in 2025, reaching an 11-year high, and has solidified its position as a preferred safe-haven currency due to Switzerland's political stability and low debt levels [10][11]. - However, the strong franc poses challenges for Switzerland's export-driven economy, with inflation remaining low at 0.1%, raising concerns about deflationary pressures [10]. - The Swiss National Bank is unlikely to respond aggressively to the franc's appreciation, with only minor interventions expected, as the global economic outlook remains optimistic [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment value of the Gold ETF (518800), highlighting its advantages in low fees, flexibility, and precise tracking of gold prices, making it an optimal choice for individual investors to access the gold market and optimize their asset allocation [1][2]. Market Drivers - Multiple factors are driving the long-term upward trend of gold prices, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, global central bank gold purchases, and heightened demand for safe-haven assets in a volatile market [3][4][5][6]. Macroeconomic Support - The end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle and expectations for rate cuts are expected to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, which typically leads to structural price increases during such periods [4]. Demand Dynamics - Global central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, with a notable purchase of 863 tons in 2025, providing strong support for gold prices. Countries like Poland plan to further increase their gold holdings, contributing to a robust demand environment [5]. Market Environment - The current market is characterized by high volatility and low certainty, with gold's low correlation to stocks and bonds making it a key tool for optimizing asset allocation and hedging systemic risks [6][7]. Product Advantages - The Gold ETF (518800) stands out among various gold investment tools due to its physical backing, precise tracking, low fees, and flexibility, making it particularly suitable for ordinary investors [8][9][10]. Physical Backing - The ETF is fully backed by physical gold, ensuring that its net asset value closely mirrors gold prices, with over 95% of its holdings in physical gold [9]. Low Fee Structure - The ETF has a total annual fee of only 0.6%, significantly lower than other gold investment options, enhancing long-term compounding effects for investors [10]. Trading Flexibility - The ETF allows T+0 trading, enabling high liquidity and low investment thresholds, making it accessible for various investor types [11]. Performance Metrics - The Gold ETF (518800) has demonstrated strong performance, effectively mirroring gold price movements and providing substantial returns for investors [12][13][14]. Short-Term Performance - As of February 11, 2026, the ETF's net value increased by 11.85% over the past month, showcasing its ability to capitalize on gold price fluctuations [13]. Long-Term Stability - Over a three-year period, the ETF has achieved a cumulative growth of 58.14%, ranking fifth among 14 gold ETFs, indicating its resilience and effectiveness as a long-term investment [14]. Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to adopt a combination of long-term and short-term strategies to maximize the ETF's value, tailored to their risk preferences and investment horizons [15][16][17]. Core Strategy - A long-term allocation of 5%-10% in the ETF is recommended to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, enhancing overall portfolio stability [15]. Tactical Adjustments - Investors may increase their holdings to 15%-20% during periods of geopolitical tension or when the Fed signals rate cuts, as these conditions typically boost gold prices [15]. Short-Term Trading - The ETF's liquidity allows for short-term trading strategies, including arbitrage and grid trading, to capitalize on market fluctuations [16]. Target Investor Groups - The Gold ETF (518800) is suitable for a range of investors, including conservative investors seeking inflation hedges, institutional investors looking for systemic risk protection, and novice investors wanting easy access to gold investments [17]. Conclusion - Given the ongoing global trends of de-dollarization, strong central bank demand for gold, and the onset of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, the Gold ETF (518800) presents a compelling investment opportunity, particularly in the current market environment [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, methanol, steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, apple [5] Core Views - The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and expects a daily surplus of 373,000 barrels, mainly due to increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries [1][3][12] - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's cotton exports in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.5 million bales, a 6% year-on-year increase [1] - The COMEX's silver inventory has decreased, with a net out-of-warehouse volume of 4.7 million ounces in 24 hours [1] - Most domestic futures contracts fell at the night session, with crude oil down over 2% and caustic soda up over 3% [1] - The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - For precious metals, after market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The China-US trade "ceasefire" is expected to be extended [6] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan outright repurchase operation on February 13, with a 6-month term. The 6-month outright repurchase will be increased for the sixth consecutive month, with an increase of 50 billion yuan [7] Industry News - The Ministry of Education has issued an opinion on deepening the reform of key elements in vocational education teaching, focusing on adding new majors in fields such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [8] 2. Daily Returns of External Markets - Most external market varieties showed price declines on February 12, with London silver having the largest drop of 10.73%, followed by ICE Brent crude oil at 2.99% and London gold at 3.17%. Only a few varieties such as ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT wheat showed price increases [9] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**：The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - **Treasury Bonds**：Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**：sc crude oil fell 5.14% at the night session. The global oil market is facing a large surplus, with supply growth outpacing demand [3][12] - **Methanol**：Methanol fell 0.04% at the night session. The overall coastal inventory is basically flat, and the inventory process is slow [13] - **Natural Rubber**：Natural rubber slightly declined. With the approaching Spring Festival, risk control and position reduction are recommended [14] - **Polyolefins**：Polyolefin futures mainly fell. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and short-term prices follow cost fluctuations [15] - **Glass and Soda Ash**：Glass futures slightly fell, and soda ash futures mainly declined. The supply and demand of glass are gradually being repaired, while the supply of soda ash has slightly shrunk, and the effectiveness of supply and demand repair needs further observation [16] Metals - **Precious Metals**：Precious metals fell, with silver having a larger decline. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] - **Copper**：Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [18] - **Zinc**：Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Aluminum**：The short-term industrial situation of aluminum is relatively weak, but in the long term, low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relatively strong support for the price [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**：The market sentiment has turned weak again, and the futures price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to the right-side trading opportunities after volatility reduction and participate cautiously [21][22] Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**：The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend at the night session. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the trend of hot metal production, mine operation, and import policies [23] - **Steel**：The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to continue the volatile and weak pattern [24] - **Iron Ore**：The short-term iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak operation, and steel mills are expected to replenish inventory on demand [25] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**：Domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the external market, but the high inventory and sufficient supply in the far month are expected to continue to put pressure on prices [26][27] - **Oils and Fats**：Oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend at the night session. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is in the de-stocking cycle, and prices are expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [28] - **Sugar**：Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term, with the international sugar price breaking through the downward trend [29] - **Cotton**：Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the near term, with potential pressure on the upside in the short term [30] - **Hogs**：The short-term hog price may show a narrow-range shock, supported by sentiment and local inventory replenishment, but the overall upside space is limited [31] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**：EC rose 6.4%. Before the Spring Festival, it is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the verification of cargo volume expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [32][33]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of a tweet by Trump in early 2026, which disrupted India's energy strategy and strengthened energy cooperation between Russia and China [1] Group 1: Energy Market Dynamics - Trump's tweet announced a historic victory, claiming that Modi agreed to stop importing Russian oil in exchange for reduced tariffs from 50% to 18% [1] - In 2025, India was a major customer of Russian oil, importing approximately 2 million barrels per day and saving around $4 billion annually [3] - Following India's indecision, Russia redirected oil shipments originally destined for India to China, indicating a shift in its energy export focus [4] Group 2: India's Energy Challenges - India's reliance on Russian oil was not just about cost savings; it was also a strategic move to balance access to both Russian and American markets [5] - India's refineries are primarily designed for heavy, high-sulfur crude oil from Russia, making a switch to lighter American shale oil impractical and costly [6] - The financial issue of settling transactions in rupees created complications for Russia, as the currency was not widely accepted for purchasing necessary industrial goods [8] Group 3: Shift in Global Energy Alliances - The transition of Russian energy exports towards China signifies a broader change in the global energy landscape, with a new focus on Sino-Russian cooperation [5][11] - Russia's willingness to open its strategic Vankor oil field to Chinese investment marks a significant shift in its traditional stance on foreign capital involvement [9] - Even during the Chinese New Year industrial off-season in January 2026, China's imports of Russian oil surged to an average of 1.64 to 1.7 million barrels per day, highlighting the growing energy ties between the two nations [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to unresolved U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [1] Group 1: Short-term Outlook - Gold prices are likely to show wide fluctuations in the short term due to increased volatility [1] - The current macroeconomic uncertainties are expected to amplify gold's safe-haven attributes in the medium term [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The weakening of dollar credit since Trump's administration indicates a clearer long-term trend for gold, enhancing its monetary attributes [1] - The ongoing challenges to the dollar credit system, driven by excessive money supply and fiscal deficit monetization, support a solid long-term trend for gold [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in gold ETFs, specifically Cathay ETF (518800) and gold stock ETF (517400) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals declined, with silver experiencing a significant drop. The sharp fall in US technology stocks led to a decline in market risk appetite, causing precious metals to plunge due to liquidity shocks. Although the release of US employment data cooled down the expectation of interest rate cuts, the overall US job market is in a cooling trend, and the US economy still requires interest rate cuts. It is expected that after the new Fed Chairman takes office in the middle of the year, interest rate cuts will be re - promoted. In the long run, factors supporting gold such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases have not reversed. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel. Due to silver's higher volatility than gold and the relatively low gold - silver ratio, investors are advised to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 1129.74 and 1126.12 respectively, down 0.29% and 0.38% from the previous day; the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 20348 and 20626 respectively, down 0.77% and 1.52% from the previous day [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 93522 and 154552 respectively, with trading volumes of 53698 and 246621 respectively; the positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 135582 and 198505 respectively, with trading volumes of 288400 and 509006 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premium**: The spot premiums of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were - 6.82 and - 3.2 respectively; the spot premiums of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were - 678 and - 956 respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1122.92, down 0.14% from the previous day; the closing price of London Gold was 4921.11 US dollars per troy ounce, down 3.22% from the previous day. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 19670, down 1.15% from the previous day; the closing price of London Silver was 75.22 US dollars per troy ounce, down 10.68% from the previous day [2]. - **Ratios**: The current value of the difference between Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 was 3.62, and that between Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 was - 278.00. The current gold - silver ratio (spot) was 57.09, and the ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver were 1.03 and 1.18 respectively [2]. Inventory - **Gold**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 105,072 kilograms; the inventory of COMEX gold decreased by 287,033 troy ounces to 34,448,012 troy ounces [2]. - **Silver**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 7,531 kilograms to 349,633 kilograms; the inventory of COMEX silver decreased by 2,335,797 troy ounces to 379,233,006 troy ounces [2]. Related Derivatives - **Indices and Yields**: The US Dollar Index decreased by 0.02 to 96.91; the S&P 500 Index decreased by 108.71 to 6,832.76; the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.09% to 4.09%; Brent crude oil decreased by 1.96 to 67.67 US dollars per barrel; the US dollar against the RMB decreased by 0.0099 to 6.9016 [2]. - **ETF and Net Positions**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 5 tons to 1,076 tons; the position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 62 tons to 16,174 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 39,792 to 165,604, while that in silver increased by 2,174 to 25,877 [2]. Macro News - **Market Impact**: Concerns about artificial intelligence triggered a sell - off in financial markets, causing a sharp decline in gold prices. The decline was likely amplified by algorithm traders and commodity trading advisors. Margin calls may have also intensified the selling. Analysts believe that the sudden drop in gold prices on Thursday does not indicate a continuous downward trend but increases the possibility of short - term volatility [3]. - **Geopolitical News**: On February 12, US President Trump said that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious." He is willing to negotiate with Iran for as long as necessary, and if no agreement is reached, it will enter a "second stage" which will be difficult for Iran [4]. - **Economic Relations**: According to a Russian internal document, the Kremlin has proposed to "re - embrace the US dollar" as part of building a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration. The proposal lists seven potential areas of economic cooperation between Russia and the US, which may reshape the global financial landscape [5]. - **Housing Market**: In January, the annualized rate of pending home sales in the US dropped to 3.91 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%, the largest monthly decline since April 2022. Severe weather may have affected contract closings. However, with the recent decline in mortgage rates and the slowdown in housing price increases, there are signs of improved affordability in the housing market [6].

Market Overview - In January 2026, the equity market showed a good profit effect, with major indices rising, while the bond market stabilized after fluctuations[3] - The performance of cyclical and growth sectors remained strong, with non-ferrous metals, media, and oil and petrochemicals leading gains at 23.02%, 18.85%, and 14.95% respectively[3] - Conversely, the banking, comprehensive finance, and transportation sectors experienced declines of -6.18%, -4.46%, and -0.89% respectively[3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market showed resilience after a period of decline, with major bond fund indices recording gains of 0.24%, 0.20%, and 0.16% for long-term, bond index, and short-term pure bond indices respectively[12] - The performance of first-level, second-level, and convertible bond fund indices increased by 0.85%, 1.65%, and 6.90% respectively, following the strength of the equity market[12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy in February, focusing on sectors with strong profit elasticity and clear benefits from technological advancements, particularly in "light, electricity, and storage" segments[4] - Traditional dividend stocks are recommended as stabilizing components in investment portfolios, enhancing risk management[4] Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes the need for caution in the bond market, advising against extending duration too much due to the current narrow credit spreads and potential challenges in capital gains[6] - It highlights the importance of monitoring policy signals and maintaining a diversified allocation to mitigate risks in a complex market environment[6] Performance Metrics - The active equity fund selection index has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.5819 since its inception on May 11, 2023, outperforming the CSI 930950 index by 25.37%[23] - The short-term bond fund selection index has a cumulative net value of 1.0481, with an excess return of 0.5456% relative to its benchmark since December 12, 2023[31]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. Pay attention to risk control during the Spring Festival [7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [9]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices may continue the weak - oscillating pattern. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [10][11]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue the oscillating pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: There may be opportunities to go long in the low - range. Consider the low - cost and rigid cost conditions [18]. - **Crude Oil**: There is some progress in US - Iran negotiations, but geopolitical risks remain. It is advisable to hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply shortage in Singapore has eased, but there is still room for an upward movement due to the unresolved Iran risk. Hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: Be cautious in pre - holiday operations [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: Control positions before the holiday [30]. - **PVC**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [32]. - **Urea**: Expected to be oscillating and strong [33]. - **PX**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations during the Spring Festival [34]. - **PTA**: May oscillate, with a small inventory build - up expected. Be cautious, and pay attention to the resumption of downstream factories after the holiday [35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still pressure above, and it may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern. Be cautious and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: Trade based on the cost - end logic before the holiday. Be cautious and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory [37]. - **Bottle Chips**: Follow the cost - end trend. Be cautious before the holiday and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices and external market changes during the holiday [38]. - **Soda Ash**: Be cautious due to the off - season fundamentals. Hold light positions during the holiday [39]. - **Glass**: The market is generally loose. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday, paying attention to the return to fundamentals [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory situation has slightly improved. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday [41]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the impact on pre - holiday prices is temporarily dull. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Control risks [44]. - **Copper**: May experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. - **Aluminum**: May be under pressure [47][48]. - **Zinc**: Will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. - **Lead**: Expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. - **Tin**: There is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify. Control risks [54]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. - **Apples**: In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. - **Hogs**: Wait and see before the holiday due to the supply - demand imbalance [69][70]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. - **Logs**: The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5238 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the domestic supply also increased slightly. The downstream pre - holiday procurement ended, and the market entered a demand vacuum period. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.66% to 149,420 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption side has improved, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [44]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton, down 2.56%. The market sentiment declined, and the fundamentals weakened. The copper price may experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure [47][48]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 4.27% to 376,330 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, and there is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [54]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan/ton. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the cost is expected to rise. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 1.16% to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.22% to 8,082 yuan/ton. The soybean meal demand continues to grow moderately, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive trading day. The supply may increase, and the export decreased. Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed followed the rise of US soybean oil futures but did not break through the resistance level. The Chinese import situation has changed, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [61][63]. Cotton - The domestic Zheng cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish. In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar rose and then fell; the overnight external raw sugar fell to a new low. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faces dual supply pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. Apples - The domestic apple futures oscillated. The current market is in a vacuum period. In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. Hogs - The main contract rose 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and it is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [69][70]. Eggs - The main contract rose 1.56% to 3,200 yuan/500kg. The supply in February may remain at a relatively high level. Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. Corn and Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.83% to 2,320 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.51% to 2,572 yuan/ton. The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. Logs - The main 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The shipping volume has recovered, but the downstream demand is weakening. The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Gold**: Bullish, suggesting to go long on dips [1] - **Silver**: Neutral, waiting for volatility to decline [1] - **Copper**: Bearish, recommending to hold short positions over the holiday [1] - **Zinc**: Bearish, suggesting to hold cash and avoid positions over the holiday [1] - **Lead**: Bearish, under pressure [1] - **Tin**: Bearish, under pressure [1] - **Aluminum**: Bearish, under pressure [1] - **Nickel**: Bearish, under pressure [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Neutral, wide - range fluctuations, suggesting to avoid positions over the holiday [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish, under pressure [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bullish, suggesting to go long on dips [1] Core Views - **Gold**: Short - term price adjustments are due to factors such as the decline in US stocks and the emphasis on the Fed's independence. In the long - term, the strategic allocation value remains due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold purchases [1] - **Silver**: There are short - term adjustments due to capital outflows, but there is a long - term supply - demand gap [1] - **Copper**: With the approaching holiday, external risks increase, and it is recommended to hold short positions over the holiday [1][6] - **Zinc**: As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. It is recommended to hold cash and avoid positions over the holiday [1][10] - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating, so the price is under short - term pressure [1] - **Tin**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is under short - term pressure [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand is weak, so the price is under short - term pressure [1] - **Nickel**: Indonesian production quota cuts and high domestic inventory with weak consumption keep the price under short - term pressure [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand have slightly improved, but with the approaching holiday, market trading is light, and it is recommended to avoid positions [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is inventory accumulation pressure, and it is recommended to participate with caution [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips after stabilization [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold closed at 1126.12, down 0.38% from the previous value, and up 3.30% from last week; COMEX gold closed at 4941, down 3.26% from the previous value, and down 2.81% from last week [2] - **Driving Factors**: Short - term price drops are due to US stock declines and algorithmic trading selling. Long - term support comes from central bank purchases, de - dollarization, and policy uncertainties [1][3] - **Investment Strategy**: Stabilize and go long on dips, and pay attention to the adjustment range. Domestically, pay attention to the support near 1060 [1][3] Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE silver closed at 20626, down 1.52% from the previous value, and up 9.72% from last week; COMEX silver closed at 75, down 10.79% from the previous value, and down 9.68% from last week [2] - **Driving Factors**: Short - term price drops are due to capital outflows. Long - term support comes from a continuous 5 - year supply - demand gap and large - scale fiscal policies [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for volatility to decline, pay attention to the support near 19000 [1][3] Copper - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE copper was 100030 yuan/ton, down 2.58%; LME copper was 12856 dollars/ton, down 2.90%; COMEX copper was 599 dollars/pound, up 1.41% [4] - **Driving Factors**: Global copper ore supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak during the holiday season. COMEX copper inventory is de - stocking [5][6] - **Investment Strategy**: Short positions over the holiday. Short - term, SHFE copper focuses on the range of [98000, 102000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc was 24435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; LME zinc was 3381.5 dollars/ton, down 1.07% [8] - **Driving Factors**: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink. As the holiday approaches, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [9] - **Investment Strategy**: Reduce positions in the short - term, hold cash and avoid positions over the holiday. In the long - term, go long on dips. SHFE zinc focuses on the range of [24000, 25000], and LME zinc focuses on [3380, 3480] dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 3124.5 dollars/ton, up 0.24%; SHFE aluminum was 23610 yuan/ton, down 0.21%; alumina was 2808 yuan/ton, down 1.20% [11] - **Driving Factors**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Aluminum inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand is weak. Alumina supply is in excess [13] - **Investment Strategy**: Take profits and wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to inventory accumulation. The main operating range of SHFE aluminum is [22000 - 25100] [14] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME nickel was 17910 dollars/ton, down 0.86%; SHFE nickel was 140160 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; stainless steel was 13970 yuan/ton, down 0.50% [15] - **Driving Factors**: Indonesia will cut nickel ore production quotas in 2026, and domestic inventory is high with weak consumption. Stainless steel inventory is accumulating in the off - season [17] - **Investment Strategy**: Take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 150000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, failing to hold above the 150,000 - yuan mark [20] - **Driving Factors**: The external market is warming up. The fundamentals are strong, and inventory is decreasing in the off - season [21] - **Investment Strategy**: Go long on dips after stabilization in the range of [145000 - 156000] [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For gold, the long - term trend of de - dollarization remains unchanged, but short - term global liquidity decline puts pressure on the gold price. For copper, pre - holiday capital settlement willingness is strong and the driving force is weak. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both gold and copper [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly. The reference view is to wait and see [1]. - **Core Logic**: Last night, the gold price plunged. The New York gold dropped nearly $200 per ounce, breaking below $5000 per ounce, and the corresponding Shanghai gold fell to the 1100 yuan per gram mark. The US dollar index strengthened slightly. The US non - farm payrolls added 130,000 in January, far exceeding market expectations, which led to a decline in market expectations for interest rate cuts. Attention can be paid to the US inflation data tonight. In addition, the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq index, also declined significantly last night, and short - term global market liquidity is poor. As the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, funds tend to be cautious. During the Spring Festival holiday, geopolitical relations between the US and Iran are still tense, and the market's pricing of the candidate Fed chairman may be repeated, especially the movement of Kevin Warsh needs attention [3]. Copper - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly. The reference view is to wait and see [1]. - **Core Logic**: Last night, the copper price dived following the precious metals. The main contract price of Shanghai copper fell more than 2000 yuan per ton, once breaking below the 100,000 - yuan mark, and the open interest of Shanghai copper continued to decline. The copper price trend is similar to that of silver. On Wednesday, the US non - farm data exceeded expectations, the silver price dived significantly, and the copper price followed and weakened. Since February, the copper price has shown a pattern of reducing positions and oscillating. The pre - holiday industrial pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains. Coupled with the approaching Spring Festival, the willingness of funds to settle positions has increased, and the driving force for the copper price is insufficient. It follows the trend of precious metals but shows resistance to decline. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 - yuan mark. During the Spring Festival holiday, pay attention to the remarks of US President Trump and the actions of the Federal Reserve, which may affect macro - expectations, and also pay attention to the inventory accumulation situation during the domestic holiday [4].