特朗普在国际上惹事，最先开始慌张的就是德国，毕竟德国在美联储金库存放了1236吨金子，这笔金子现在是一笔不菲的价格，据官方报道，德国开始着 急，在犹豫到底要不要把自己的金子给拿回来。 盟友的信任在利益面前终究一文不值，德国这次是真急了，存放在美国的1236吨黄金成了心头大石，多名议员公开呼吁，必须把这批黄金全部搬回本土。 2026年开年，国际金融圈被德国的表态掀起轩然大波，多名政界人士和经济专家集体发声，态度坚决，明确要求将存放在美国联邦储备委员会的1236吨黄 金，悉数运回本土。 这绝非小数目，这批黄金占德国黄金储备的37%，是德国数十年辛苦积攒的"压箱底"财富，是国家金融安全的重要底气，半点马虎不得。 德国的厚实家底从不是凭空而来，这些金子全是战后靠着深耕精密制造、打造优质汽车产业，凭着每一件产品、每一笔订单，一点点挣回来的血汗钱。 目前德国手握约3350吨黄金，稳居全球第二大黄金储备国，储备规模仅次于美国，这份实力让其在国际金融领域说话有分量。 据光明网2025年4月报道，德国这1236吨存美黄金，按当时金价计算总值已上千亿欧元，2026年金价暴涨后，价值更是水涨船高，成了名副其实的巨额财 富。 德国将 ...

2024年以来，黄金价格加速上升，在连续上攻过程中，金价一度在1月底升破5600美元/盎司，并带动白银 价格创出历史新高。然而，这一切在1月30日戛然而止。美国总统特朗普于1月30日提名前美联储理事凯文· 沃什出任下任美联储主席，现任主席鲍威尔任期将于5月结束。 同时，据新华社报道，芝加哥商业交易所集团1月30日宣布上调金属期货保证金，将纽约商品交易所黄金 期货保证金从6%提高至8%，白银期货保证金从11%提高至15%。新规于2月2日收盘后生效。保证金上调通 常对相关合约不利，因为更高的资本支出会抑制投机参与、降低流动性，并迫使交易者平仓。 在多重因素影响下，国际黄金和白银价格在1月30日出现大幅下跌，均创下数十年来最大单日跌幅，此后 几个交易日中则持续震荡调整。2月6日，截至发稿时，COMEX黄金报4871.40美元/盎司，涨1.53%，较此 前有所回升，但较1月30日前5000美元上方的价格仍有差距。 不过，对于此次回调，机构普遍认为根本原因并不在于沃什的任命。前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指 出，市场普遍认为此次回调直接诱发因素之一是对美联储新任主席沃什偏鹰派立场的担忧，担心其在5月 后上任可能推动缩表 ...

2026年黄金降价原因及未来趋势分析 2026年黄金价格出现阶段性大幅降价，核心是美联储政策转向、市场超买后的获利盘出逃、涨势脱离真 实供需等多重因素共振导致，并非长期牛市终结；结合全球经济格局、央行购金趋势及市场情绪来看， 未来黄金价格将呈现"短期探底震荡、中期企稳回升、长期持续向好"的分阶段走势，截至2026年2月6 日，伦敦金现报4808.68美元/盎司，国内黄金T+D价格为1080元/克，较前期高点均有明显回落，后续需 重点关注美联储政策落地及地缘风险变化。 （一）美联储政策转向：降息预期降温，美元指数反弹 黄金以美元计价，美元强弱与黄金价格呈负相关关系，而美联储的货币政策直接决定美元走势及市场资 金流向，这是2026年黄金降价的最核心原因。2026年1月30日，美国总统特朗普提名前美联储理事凯文· 沃什为下任美联储主席，沃什被市场称为"鹰派中的鹰派"，其公开表态将缩减美联储资产负债表、对降 息持谨慎态度，直接打破了市场此前对美联储"大放水、多轮降息"的预期。 此前市场普遍赌美联储2026年会多次降息，持有无息资产黄金的机会成本降低，大量资金涌入黄金市场 推高价格；而沃什的提名落地后，市场预期降息将推 ...

Core Viewpoints - Silver futures have ended their limit down, indicating that the current liquidity shock is largely over. Since November 2025, silver has become a leading indicator of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, alongside gold and copper, activating a rotation sequence in commodities [2][12] - The recent decline in silver futures has triggered a liquidity risk contagion in the commodity market, leading to widespread sell-offs in related sectors. The opening of the limit down on February 3rd suggests a relief in market risks [2][12] Market Events - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) silver futures opened limit down, closing at 21,446 CNY/kg, a decline of 16.71%. The London silver spot price was 79.2 USD/oz, with the SHFE silver futures premium dropping from 29.8% at the end of January to 7.46% by February 3 [1][11] - On February 4, the SHFE silver main contract night session rose by 5.93%, closing at 22,393 CNY/kg [1][11] Volatility Analysis - The implied volatility of silver futures remains high, with a peak of 148% on February 2, indicating that while the limit down has been lifted, the market still needs to stabilize from liquidity risks. Gold futures also show elevated volatility, suggesting that both metals require time to fully absorb the liquidity shock [3][13] Commodity Market Dynamics - The core logic of the commodity market remains unchanged despite liquidity shocks. Some commodities, which were mispriced due to liquidity risks, may return to their fundamental pricing logic as the market stabilizes. The 2026 asset allocation report highlights three main lines for the commodity market post-liquidity shock [4][14] - Precious metals are expected to enter a consolidation phase after a period of broad increases, supported by long-term narratives such as the weakening of global sovereign currency credit and the "de-dollarization" trend [4][17] Non-Ferrous Metals - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from structural changes in demand driven by new economic sectors such as AI and renewable energy. Despite recent adjustments due to liquidity shocks, the fundamental pricing mechanisms for these metals remain robust [5][18] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is anticipated to see continued improvement in market conditions, driven by supply-side adjustments and structural changes in demand. The sector is becoming a key area for capital inflows, despite recent declines linked to precious metals [6][19] New Energy Metals - New energy metals, particularly lithium carbonate, are expected to gradually move towards supply-demand balance, supported by policy adjustments and demand growth. The sector remains a focal point for bullish investment opportunities [7][20]

林振龙 从业资格号：F03107169 交易咨询号：Z0018476 2026年2月6日 避险缓和降息仍远 贵金属震荡筑底 ——山金期货贵金属月度策略报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 观 点概述 一、贵金属近期行情回顾 相比之前牛市，美联储本轮牛市中降息谨慎，市场抢跑明显。黄金在贸易战前后高歌猛进，避险逻辑影响更为显著，一旦 避险缓和，短期回调压力更大；白银之前牛市波动率大于黄金，近年平均涨幅低于黄金，工业属性拖累明显。25年下半年以来 白银快速补涨，价格高起后需求存在证伪风险，需要时间验证；铂钯2025年以来开启补涨，国内期货上市后，铂金上破前高后 快速回调，钯金距离前高仍远，铂钯比值仍处低位。 经济体系重构推动货币体系重构，作为超主权货币，长期来看，贵金属上行或继续成为阻力最小的方向；"去美元化"存 量全球央行外储占比，及流量国际支付占比中美元有所降低，黄金增长显著；美元仍居优势低位，"去美元化"仍是一个漫长 过程；美联储关注的3月-10年美债利差倒挂近期继续下行，美国经济衰退风险下降；美欧利差高位下行，美中利差大幅回落； 美债真实收益率下行遇阻反弹，持有黄金机会成本上升；美元指数大周期处于下行趋势，接近下破 ...

来源：《财经》杂志 2月6日早间，金银价格继续走低，金价一度跌破4700美元/盎司；银价一度跌破65美元/盎司，抹去年内全部涨幅 文｜唐郡 编辑｜张威 时隔不到一周，贵金属市场再度集体巨震。 北京时间2月5日至6日早间，国际贵金属市场大幅下跌。 Wind（万得）数据显示，2月5日，伦敦黄金和白银现货价格分别下跌3.79%和20.06%。2月6日早间，金银价格继续走低，金价一度跌破4700美元/ 盎司；银价一度跌破65美元/盎司，抹去年内全部涨幅。 截至2月6日16时20分，伦敦黄金现货价格报4863.1美元/盎司，日内上涨0.65%；伦敦白银现货价格报73.5美元/盎司，日内上涨3.60%。 不到一周前，1月31日凌晨，伦敦黄金和白银现货价格巨震，黄金盘中跌逾12%，创40年来最大单日跌幅；白银盘中暴跌36%，创下了有记录以来 最糟糕的单日表现。 亦有机构对此持不同观点。中金公司近日撰文称，"沃什冲击"改变了美联储政策预期，导致黄金价格巨震，证实美联储政策确实是决定黄金市场 前景的最关键变量。 "如果沃什最终成功收缩美联储资产负债表，则可部分修复美元信誉，延缓'去美元化'进程，并收紧美元流动性，会直接动摇美元 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Agricultural Products: Cobweb Pricing, Prepare Boats in Drought - 2026 Agricultural Market Outlook" [1] - Report Date: February 6, 2026 - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - Agricultural products are typical cyclical commodities with seasonal production and annual sales, and their pricing follows the cobweb model [3][48]. - Agricultural product prices are at historical lows, with highly predictable positive drivers and a high risk - return ratio [3][48]. - Although the overall global agricultural product output is still increasing, the increment mainly comes from South America, with a high concentration. Global resource nationalism is intensifying, and geopolitical risks remain, increasing the risk premium of essential agricultural products [3][44][48]. - In 2025/2026, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of global rice, corn, and soybeans decreased. The prices of corn and soybeans are relatively low compared to precious metals and non - ferrous metals and have fallen below the US planting cost for two consecutive years [3][48]. - It is highly predictable that the US will reduce the planting area in 2026/2027 due to low planting profits. Weather premium trading weight is increasing [3][48]. - The domestic hog price has fallen below the self - breeding and self - raising production cost since September 2025, with the possibility of passive capacity reduction during the consumption off - season. It is recommended to focus on the opportunities driven by the biodiesel policy for oils, the expected opportunities for the rapeseed - soybean meal price difference due to improved China - Canada relations, and the hog cycle reversal opportunities [3][44][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Prices Are Relatively Low - Since September 2025, gold has started a new upward trend. The expected Fed rate cut has increased the attractiveness of precious metals, the weakening of the US dollar's credit has led to "de - dollarization" trading, and new consumption in AI computing power, energy storage, and photovoltaics has boosted the demand for precious metals [6]. - Since November 2025, silver has become the new leader in price increases, and the gold - to - silver ratio has accelerated its decline. Silver supply is limited by associated mining, and its demand has increased rapidly in new energy vehicles, energy storage, and photovoltaics [8]. - Since November 2025, non - ferrous metals such as brass and aluminum have seen accelerated price increases, and in mid - December 2025, nickel with high inventories also started to make up for the price increase, spreading to the entire non - ferrous metal sector [10]. - Agricultural product prices are at a historical low level. Compared with the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the relative position of agricultural product prices is low. Even after the recent sharp correction of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, this situation has not changed [12]. 3.2 The Fundamentals of Agricultural Products Are Gradually Improving - As of January 2026, USDA expects the global grain output in 2025/2026 to reach a new high (+4.2%), with rigid demand growth (+2.8%). The inventory - to - consumption ratios of rice, corn, and soybeans have decreased [13]. - In 2025/2026, the global rice output decreased by 0.03%, wheat output increased by 5.16%, corn output increased by 5.29%, soybean output decreased by 0.34%, rapeseed output increased by 10.66%, palm oil output increased by 2.31%, sugar output increased by 4.58%, and cotton output increased by 0.80% [15][17][20][24]. - The US soybean has been in a loss - making state since 2024/2025, with a loss of $96.4 per acre, and the US corn has also been in a loss - making state since 2024/2025, with a loss of $130.15 per acre [36]. - From October 2024 to now, the CBOT corn and soybean futures prices have been fluctuating at a low level, and it is expected that the US corn and soybean planting will continue to be in a loss - making state in 2025/2026 [38]. - The El Niño index has been negative since September 2024, and in January 2026, it was - 0.5, in a weak La Niña state, which is beneficial to the crop yield [40]. - USDA expects the US corn yield per acre in 2025/2026 to be 186.5 bushels, and the soybean yield per acre to be 53 bushels. The Brazilian corn yield per hectare in 2025/2026 is expected to be 5.8 tons, decreasing for two consecutive years, and the soybean yield per hectare is expected to be 3.63 tons, at a historical high level [42]. - The hog price has fallen below the self - breeding and self - raising production cost since September 2025 for 16 weeks, and after a short - term low - profit stage in January 2026, it is expected to continue to be in a loss - making state during the consumption off - season. Once the market enters the passive capacity reduction stage, the cycle reversal opportunity should be noted [44]. 3.3 Cobweb Pricing, Prepare Boats in Drought - Agricultural products are typical cyclical commodities, with seasonal production and annual sales, and their pricing follows the cobweb model [46]. - In 2025/2026, the US corn and soybean yields are at historical high levels. The market focuses on the expected reduction of the planting area in the US in 2026/2027 due to continuous negative planting profits. If the expectation is confirmed from March to May 2026, the weight of weather premium will increase from July to August [47]. - The prices of agricultural products are at historical lows, with highly predictable positive drivers and a high risk - return ratio. The relative position of corn and soybean prices compared to precious metals and non - ferrous metals is low, and it is highly predictable that the US will reduce the planting area in 2026/2027 [48].

一边是俄罗斯把自家压箱底的"抗制裁王牌"源源不断运往东方，另一边是咱中国央行已经连续十几个月默默增持黄金。 当最古老的财富象征，与最现代的大国博弈交织在一起，一个直击灵魂的问题浮现了：维系美国霸权半个多世纪的美元体系，是不是真的走到头 了？ 数据传达的信息，美国的焦虑 时间来到2026年，一组数据引起了人们的关注：仅仅在过去一年，从俄罗斯流向中国的黄金总量暴增了800%，达到25.3吨，价值接近16.3亿美 元。 这可不是什么普通的生意波动，要知道，现在金价可是在不断上涨的，1月29日，国际黄金价格甚至突破了每盎司5500美元大关。 我们要明白这件事的意义，就得先搞清楚这800%的增长到底意味着什么。这个数字背后，是两个大国在金融安全上极为清醒的盘算。 对俄罗斯来说，这是一条破解西方制裁的生存通道。 自打2022年超过3000亿美元的外汇资产被西方冻结，莫斯科就彻底明白了：手里攥着的美元欧元，关键时刻可能一文不值。 但黄金不一样，尤其是那2300吨多藏在莫斯科自家金库、不经过纽约伦敦市场的黄金，谁也冻不了、抢不走。 把这些 "终极硬通货"运到中国，能换回急需的人民币或者各种工业物资，等于在西方砌的金融围墙外， ...

近期，以黄金、白银为代表的贵金属市场，成为全球金融市场关注的焦点。 Wind数据显示，1月29日，伦敦现货黄金创下5598.75美元/盎司的历史新高，随后快速跳水；2月2日，最低至4402.06美元/盎司，区间最大跌幅超1000美元， 后续在反弹与回落中反复震荡；2月4日，盘中一度升破5000美元/盎司，2月5日，再次跌超3%。截至北京时间2月6日16时，国际黄金期货、现货价格围绕 4850美元/盎司波动。 其一，美联储政策相关事件尚未落定，下任主席提名通过、现任主席鲍威尔相关指控撤销等事项暂无定论，且美联储理事米兰辞任政府职务后，深耕美联储 的意图愈发明确，为后续政策博弈埋下伏笔；其二，美国1月就业、通胀核心数据将陆续披露，当前市场已形成就业持稳、通胀上行的共识，这一预期不利 于美联储降息预期进一步发酵；其三，2月COMEX白银期货交割数据表现中规中矩，能否复刻1月后期的发力走势尚不确定；其四，国内白银溢价仍处于套 利窗口打开区间，而显性库存尚未企稳回升，春节前部分投机买盘或面临出清压力。 在此轮贵金属下跌行情中，白银跌幅为何更加显著？ 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，就近期国际贵金属市场表现而言，白银领跌大 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 近期，以黄金、白银为代表的贵金属市场，成为全球金融市场关注的焦点。 数据显示， 1月29日， 伦敦现货黄金创下5598.75美元/盎司的历史新高，随后快速跳水；2月2 日，最低至4402.06美元/盎司，区间最大跌幅超1000美元，后续在反弹与回落中反复震荡；2月4 日，盘中一度升破5000美元/盎司，2月5日，再次跌超3%。截至北京时间2月6日16时，国际黄金 期货、现货价格围绕4850美元/盎司波动。 从历史新高到大幅回落，再到宽幅震荡，贵金属价格剧烈波动背后，是多重市场因素的交织博弈结 果。针对当前贵金属市场热点问题，多位期货机构分析师给出了专业解读与研判，跟着中证君一起 来看看吧！ 近期贵金属价格高位下跌，背后有哪些核心因素？ Q 广发期货研究所贵金属研究员叶倩宁 表示， 1月 贵金属价格受供应结构性紧张、 美元资产走弱提振投资需求等利好推动大幅上涨。 其一，美联储政策相关事件尚未落定，下任主席提名通过、现任主席鲍威尔相关指 控撤销等事项暂无定论，且美联储理事米兰辞任政府职务后，深耕美联储的意图愈 发明确，为后 ...