1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been fluctuating upwards. As a result, there may still be room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 80,943 lots, a decrease of 28,068 lots; the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 8,522 lots; the inventory was 20,349 tons, an increase of 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, a decrease of 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 70 yuan, a decrease of 595 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions had different changes, such as a 5 - yuan increase in Guangzhou, a 10 - yuan decrease in North China, and no change in East China; the spreads between different contract months also changed, with the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreasing by 70 yuan, and the spreads between other contract months having corresponding increases or decreases [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 141,750 tons; the spreads between different contract periods also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread increasing by 1.51 US dollars and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreasing by 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1387, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, an increase of 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: On July 30, 2025, the US government's decision on the Section 232 investigation of steel led to the exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, causing a large amount of electrolytic copper to shift from COMEX warehouses to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Mine Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand the El Teniente mine, including three new ore layers. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion project is expected to contribute 2 - 3 tons of copper production increment in 2025, reaching 15 tons after full - production. The annual output is expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, with 6 people reported dead, and operations in the accident area were suspended for investigation [2]. Market Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The production (import) volume of copper concentrates in China in August is expected to increase month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative and has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at Chinese ports has decreased compared to last week. The export restriction of high - quality scrap steel in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper and indirect supply through countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap steel has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window and potentially reducing the production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in August. Some copper smelters have suspended production, such as Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a capacity of 200,000 tons, Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuneb copper smelter in Namibia (annual processing capacity of 240,000 tons of copper concentrates), and Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile with a capacity of 350,000 tons. The Congo's moa - Kakula copper smelter is expected to be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton copper reform project is in the pre - work stage, and the second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou Non - ferrous Recycling Copper Resource Recycling Base produced anode copper at the beginning of the month. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) month - on - month, and the capacity of crude copper smelter maintenance in China in August may decrease month - on - month, potentially increasing the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August [2]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional consumption off - season in China has suppressed downstream demand [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is experiencing a price surge driven by tariffs, affecting a wide range of products and businesses, leading to a significant economic impact [2][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June shows a 1% increase in home goods prices, with textiles rising by 4.2%, and appliances up by 1.9%, indicating widespread inflation across various sectors [3] - Companies like Procter & Gamble and Mohawk Industries are raising prices due to increased costs from tariffs, with Procter & Gamble announcing an average price increase of 2.5% on about a quarter of its products [3][5] Group 2 - A survey by HSBC reveals that 72% of small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S. are forced to increase operational costs, with 81.5% planning to raise prices [5] - The fluctuating tariff rates have created uncertainty for businesses, with some companies unable to plan effectively due to drastic changes in tax rates [5] - The shipping volume at the Port of Los Angeles has decreased by 15% compared to the previous month, as retailers are reducing order cycles to avoid tariffs [5] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warns that the impact of tariffs is more severe than anticipated, creating a conflict between maintaining price stability and ensuring employment [6] - Economists predict that tariffs could increase inflation by approximately 1 percentage point over the next 12 months, indicating a potential rise in consumer prices [6] - The current economic situation is characterized by stagnant growth and high inflation, leading to concerns about stagflation, which poses challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [6][9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the disparity in economic recovery in Hong Kong, highlighting a "jobless recovery" phenomenon where GDP is growing but employment is not improving [1][4][5] - Despite a reported 10 consecutive quarters of GDP growth and a 16-month rise in exports, many residents feel the economic situation is poor, with low consumer spending and business closures [2][3] - The term "jobless recovery" is used to describe the current economic state of Hong Kong, indicating a lack of job growth despite overall economic indicators suggesting recovery [4][7] Group 2 - The article references a podcast discussing the economic conditions in Hong Kong, questioning the true state of the economy and the reasons behind the perceived disparity in economic experiences [5] - The concept of "jobless recovery" has historical roots, having been used since the 1990s to describe situations where economic growth does not correlate with job growth [7] - The discussion includes the broader implications of creating new economic concepts to explain unusual economic phenomena, suggesting that language plays a crucial role in shaping economic understanding [8][12][20]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, reflecting significant pressure on Chairman Powell's decision-making [1] - Former President Trump criticized Powell for being slow to act, highlighting the increasing burden of national debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion, with annual interest payments reaching $1.2 trillion [1] - The current economic situation presents a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing high inflation, which remains at 3.4%, against rising unemployment, with July's job additions at only 114,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.3% [1][3] Group 2 - Analysts on Wall Street have noted that the current interest rate levels are suppressing the real economy, leading to decreased investment willingness among businesses and reduced consumer spending due to high credit card rates [3] - The strong dollar, resulting from stagnant interest rate expectations, poses a dual challenge for export-oriented industries [3] - The conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve highlights the clash between political objectives and economic realities, with the former seeking low rates to alleviate debt pressure ahead of the 2024 elections [3][5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's predicament reflects a broader anxiety among Western economies in the post-pandemic era, characterized by high debt, high inflation, and low growth, leading to the diminishing effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools [5] - Powell's challenge is emblematic of a critical question facing all developed economies: how to navigate the balance between political pressure and economic principles [5] - The outcome of this struggle may redefine the operational rules of the global monetary system, with alternative approaches, such as structural monetary policy tools from certain Eastern economies, potentially offering new solutions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of weakness, with recent non-farm payroll data indicating a sharp decline in job growth, which has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5][6]. Labor Market Data - In July, non-farm employment increased by only 73,000, far below the expected 104,000, and previous months' figures were revised down by nearly 260,000 [6][8]. - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [6]. - Over the past three months, the average monthly job growth was only 35,000, marking the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began [1][5]. Economic Implications - The slowdown in job growth and rising unemployment are contributing to risks for consumer and business spending, which are already showing signs of deceleration [5][9]. - The labor market's deterioration is increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, especially in light of the conflicting economic signals [7][8]. Sector-Specific Insights - Job losses were particularly pronounced in manufacturing, professional and business services, and government sectors, with federal government jobs decreasing for six consecutive months [8][9]. - Despite the overall job market weakness, demand in other sectors remains relatively healthy, with job vacancies still above pre-pandemic levels [9][10]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the disappointing non-farm payroll data, U.S. stock index futures experienced significant declines, reflecting a surge in selling sentiment on Wall Street [8][12]. - Historical data suggests that August is typically a challenging month for stock performance, with the S&P 500 index often experiencing declines during this period [11][12].

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. White House announced that Trump signed an executive order modifying reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries, imposing a 10% tariff on countries not listed in the order, increasing tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, and imposing a 40% punitive tariff on transshipped goods. These measures have strengthened the demand for the U.S. dollar in international trade settlements, indirectly suppressing the monetary appeal of gold [1] - Despite some countries like Brazil and Indonesia receiving tariff exemptions, the overall escalation of trade tensions has not significantly stimulated market demand for gold as a safe haven, suggesting that gold prices may face upward limitations in the short term [1] - Economic data indicates that July's Challenger job cuts reached the highest level for the same period since 2020, and initial jobless claims show signs of labor market weakness. However, June's core PCE inflation unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8%, with consumer spending nearly stagnant, hinting at potential stagflation. This complex economic environment should support gold, but expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy are key suppressive factors [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that personnel adjustments at the Federal Reserve will be completed by the end of the year, and Trump publicly criticized Powell's policy missteps, suggesting the potential appointment of more hawkish officials. Market expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation have risen, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices in the short term [1] Technical Analysis - The current gold price is in a downtrend after retreating from its high, with the 4-hour chart indicating a bearish trend. The moving averages MA20 and MA60 are in a bearish arrangement, and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands along with MA20 is exerting pressure on the price [4] - The CCI indicator is near the oversold zone and is turning down, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. The trading strategy for the day is to focus on short positions [4] Market News - Key economic indicators to be released include the UK July Manufacturing PMI final value, Eurozone July CPI year-on-year and month-on-month initial values, U.S. July unemployment rate, U.S. July non-farm payrolls, and various other employment-related metrics [7][8]

Core Insights - The current U.S. tariff policy is projected to increase domestic prices by 1.8% in the short term, resulting in an average additional annual expenditure of $2,400 per American household [1][2] - This price increase is expected to push inflation levels close to double the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, significantly impacting consumer purchasing power, especially for low-income families [2][3] - The indirect effects of the tariff policy may persist for several years, potentially leading to delayed price adjustments and long-term economic consequences, such as reduced investment and job cuts in manufacturing [3][4] Economic Impact - The tariff policy is seen as a double-edged sword, providing short-term protection for certain domestic industries while increasing consumer costs and risking retaliatory measures from trade partners [4] - If the tariff policy continues until 2025, the average annual loss for American households could further escalate, prompting calls for policymakers to reassess the net benefits of tariffs [4] - Rising inflation pressures may compel the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive stance on interest rates, which could hinder corporate investment and job market recovery, exacerbating the risk of economic stagnation [4]

Group 1 - International gold prices showed a rebound, reaching a peak of $3333.93 per ounce before closing at $3326.35, marking a daily increase of approximately 0.36% after a drop to $3302, the lowest since July 9 [1] - The gold market is influenced by multiple key factors, including the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, critical stages in US-China trade negotiations, and fluctuating global risk aversion sentiments [1] - The market is currently in a state of cautious anticipation, with gold trading around $3327.35 as investors await the outcomes of significant risk events [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with the wording of the policy statement being a focal point of attention [3] - Recent economic data presents a mixed picture, with a decrease in job vacancies and hiring, indicating labor market weakness, while consumer confidence rose to 97.2, exceeding expectations [3] - The US Treasury market has seen unusual volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.330%, the lowest since July 3, and a record demand for a $44 billion seven-year Treasury auction, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets [3] Group 3 - The US dollar index rose by 0.30% to 98.91, reaching a high of 99.14, which may limit the upward potential for gold prices [4] - Following the US-China Stockholm talks, both parties agreed to extend the tariff truce, with China confirming efforts to push for the suspension of certain tariffs [4] - Recent trade agreements between the US and the EU, as well as Japan, may influence Federal Reserve decisions, potentially creating space for a dovish shift in policy [4] Group 4 - The gold market is at a critical turning point, with strong support at the $3300 level and short-term resistance around $3350 [5] - The interplay of global trade tensions easing and expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve creates a complex environment for gold prices [5] - The IMF reported a decrease in the effective US tariff rate from 24.4% to 17.3%, but the pass-through effect of tariffs may keep US inflation elevated, presenting unique support for gold [5]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates soon despite pressure from President Trump, with expectations for a rate cut pushed to December [1][4] - The job market remains strong, and most Fed officials believe the economy can withstand higher rates, indicating a cautious approach to rate cuts [1][4] - The Chicago Fed's financial conditions index has dropped to a three-year low, suggesting a relatively loose financial environment [1] Group 2: Inflation Pressures - Current inflation rates in the U.S. are relatively low, with June's consumer price index rising by 2.7% year-on-year, and core CPI increasing by 2.9% [2] - Future inflation is expected to rise due to factors such as increased imports, labor shortages in key industries, and potential fiscal stimulus related to the upcoming midterm elections [2][3] - The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation is seen as a long-term factor, potentially lowering inflation pressure over time, but initial investments may raise costs [3] Group 3: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - Trump's ongoing pressure on Fed Chair Powell may not significantly alter Fed policy, as the independence of the Fed is protected by institutional frameworks [5][6] - The potential appointment of a shadow Fed chair by Trump could complicate Powell's position, especially if inflation rises in the coming months [5] - The risk of losing Fed independence is noted, which could lead to adverse effects on the economy and market if interest rates are kept too low [6] Group 4: Global Investment Trends - There is a shift in investor sentiment away from U.S. assets, with a more diversified asset allocation emerging as investors hedge against dollar risks [7] - The dollar index is expected to decline to around 95 by year-end due to slowing U.S. economic growth and rising inflation [7] - U.S. economic growth is projected to be below 2% potential growth, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [7] Group 5: Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is projected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by over $3 trillion, raising concerns about sustainability given the current low unemployment rate [8] - The U.S. public debt is expected to remain high, with budget deficits projected to exceed 6% of GDP [8] - The demand for U.S. debt from foreign central banks is decreasing, leading to a more vulnerable bond market reliant on private sector investors [9]

中国经济则呈现 "稳中向新" 特征，二季度实际 GDP 增速连续三季度稳定在5%以上，出口韧性、消费 升级与新动能壮大形成核心支撑，但物价持续低迷与名义增长偏慢成为突出制约，国际货币体系变革为 人民币国际化带来新机遇。 报告核心结论显示，中国经济亮点与挑战并存：外贸多元化对冲对美出口下滑，耐用品消费短期发力但 服务消费潜力待释放，高端制造等新动能加速成长；物价低迷源于核心服务疲软与中游化工品拖累。基 于此，建议以供需协同为核心，通过财政货币协同、稳楼市、释消费、推进城镇化、整治内卷五大举 措，促进物价合理回升，最终提振名义增长（按当前市场价格计算的国内生产总值（GDP）增长，未剔 除价格变动因素），实现高质量复苏。 为了从根本上缓解"供强需弱"矛盾，北京大学国家发展研究院卢锋教授建议从以下三个方面系统发力： 一是适度调整公共资源配置，将部分公共部门投入从供给领域转向支持居民收入与消费，形成更为平衡 的供求格局；二是加快推进户籍、土地及现代财政体制的综合改革，以提升公共服务均等化水平，营造 有利于居民消费的优质环境；三是短期刺激和长期改革并举，在保持生产力赶超力度的同时，大幅提升 居民消费率和最终消费率5至10 ...