Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the government bond futures market reflects a silent struggle regarding the direction of the Chinese economy, driven by both funding and policy pressures [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Dynamics - The central bank's recent reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan in a single day, signal a tightening stance despite appearing to be accommodative [2][5]. - The Ministry of Finance initiated bond market support operations, injecting 280 million and 260 million yuan of 2-year and 3-year bonds, respectively, indicating a subtle shift in market supply and demand dynamics [2][5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Environment - The current low interest rate environment has seen the interest rate on demand deposits from major state-owned banks drop to 0.05%, with 1-year fixed deposits falling below 1% [2][5]. - Despite this, the 30-year government bond ETF has shown a remarkable annualized return of 15.28% over the past year, highlighting a paradox where funds flee low-yield deposits but hesitate to enter riskier markets [2][5]. Group 3: International Market Influence - The cold reception of the U.S. 5-year Treasury auction, with indirect bidders receiving a record 78.4% allocation, indicates a global capital flight towards safe assets, contrasting with domestic capital fleeing the bond futures market [3][5]. - The significant increase in SOFR futures open interest by 173,000 contracts within three days suggests that the market may be anticipating larger upheavals [3][5]. Group 4: Market Behavior - The net short position in 5-year government bond futures among the top 20 positions reached 6,254 contracts, indicating a strong institutional presence in the short-selling camp [3][5]. - A "mini redemption wave" in the wealth management market has led to short-term products experiencing a withdrawal magnitude similar to last September, showcasing a stark contrast between retail panic selling and institutional arbitrage strategies [3][5]. Group 5: Economic Transition - The anticipated increase in government bond issuance in May and June may exceed expectations, with local government bond issuance aiming for 700 billion yuan in a single month [4][5]. - The decline in bank deposit rates has paradoxically strengthened residents' savings tendencies, with the proportion of demand deposits falling below 20% in April, indicating a growing conservative mindset among the populace [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, silicon metal, lithium carbonate, coke [1] - **Bullish**: Corn (mid - term), urea [1] - **Sideways**: Index futures, gold, silver, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel (short - term), rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferroalloys, ferrosilicon, glass, soda ash, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, PE, BPP, PVC, caustic soda, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - The current market is affected by multiple factors such as weak economy, asset shortage, global trade frictions, and policy changes. Different varieties show different trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [1]. - For most commodities, short - term trends are often influenced by immediate news and short - term supply - demand imbalances, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand structures and macro - economic conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Lack of driving factors, likely to continue weak sideways movement [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Short - term sideways, long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level sideways, limited upward space in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) increase concerns about supply shortages [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports prices in the short term, but upward space is limited as prices rise [1] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, and the downward momentum of futures prices is weakening [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term weak sideways after price decline, long - term surplus pressure exists. Pay attention to inventory changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak sideways, long - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to steel mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations are strengthening, and prices have significantly corrected in the short term [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: In the window period from peak to off - peak season, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with no upward driving force [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Potential risk of weakening exports, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with unclear price rebound drivers [1] - **Iron ore**: Expectation of peak iron - making output, but no new stories on the supply side. Pay attention to steel pressure [1] - **Ferroalloys**: Short - term supply - demand balance, high warehouse receipt pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area make supply - demand tight [1] - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices may weaken due to the rainy season [1] - **Soda ash**: Short - term demand is okay, but medium - term supply is excessive, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply - demand is relatively excessive. Coking coal provides positive arbitrage and selling hedging opportunities when the futures price is at a premium. Coke is bearish [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: Limited upward driving force, expected to maintain range - bound movement [1] - **Soybean oil**: Argentine weather impact is limited, and there is arrival pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Concerns about supply shortage, and it is possible to consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term affected by trade negotiations and weather, long - term affected by macro uncertainties. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production volume may exceed expectations if crude oil is weak [1] - **Corn**: Medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Soybeans**: Short - term no obvious bullish drivers, expected to maintain range - bound movement. Long opportunities for M11 and M01 can be considered [1] - **Pulp**: Port inventory is rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways [1] - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount. The futures price is expected to be stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and summer consumption season [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, inventory accumulation, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural rubber**: Futures - spot price difference has returned, affected by exchange policies, and inventory has decreased [1] - **BR rubber**: Short - term sideways, long - term downward pressure due to weak demand [1] - **PTA**: Supply - demand tension has been relieved, and short - fiber cost is closely related [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Continuing to reduce inventory, and the impact of polyester production cuts is ongoing [1] - **Short - fiber**: Cost is closely related to PTA, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1] - **Styrene**: Speculative demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and the spot - futures price gap persists [1] - **Urea**: High daily production, increased short - term export demand expectations, and a possible rebound [1] - **Methanol**: High domestic production, increasing arrivals, and entering the inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be weak sideways [1] - **PE**: Seasonal demand is weakening, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **BPP**: Maintenance support is limited, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **PVC**: Fundamentals are weak, but there is short - term rebound due to macro - level positives [1] - **Caustic soda**: Low inventory, sufficient orders, and subsequent trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Prices are weak, with narrow - range fluctuations, and are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Container shipping**: Strong expectations but weak reality. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling during the price - support period. Light - position long positions can be considered for peak - season contracts, and arbitrage opportunities exist [1]

Group 1 - The pilot program for credit bond ETFs to conduct general pledge-style repurchase transactions is set to be officially implemented soon, marking a new phase in liquidity management tools in China's bond market [2] - The inclusion of credit bond ETFs in the general repurchase pledge library reflects support for green bonds, sci-tech innovation bonds, and corporate bonds from private enterprises, signaling a commitment to market construction for credit bond ETFs [2] - The current environment of "asset scarcity" is slowing down, with credit bonds expected to outperform interest rate bonds in a defensive strategy, emphasizing the importance of duration selection in different stages [2] Group 2 - As of May 28, 2025, the Tianhong credit bond ETF (159398) showed active trading with a turnover rate of 91.29% and a transaction volume of 5.1 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [3] - The Tianhong credit bond ETF reached a new high in scale at 5.673 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 56.3323 million, reflecting growing investor interest [3] - The fund has seen continuous net inflows over the past six days, totaling 1.325 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 221 million yuan [3] Group 3 - The management fee for the Tianhong credit bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] - The tracking error for the Tianhong credit bond ETF over the past month is 0.006%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shenzhen benchmark market-making credit bond index account for 8.59% of the index, reflecting the concentration of holdings [4]

"就目前来看，本轮降准降息落地后，理财产品资产端利率在短期内未出现明显下降，反而有所回升。 实际上，今年市场上资产供给有所增加，理财公司'资产荒'的现象并未显著加剧，只能说是高收益资产 遭遇了激烈拼抢。"某股份行理财公司投研业务负责人告诉记者。 ● 本报记者 石诗语 从短期来看，央行降准降息政策对理财产品资产端收益率的影响相对有限，近期长债利率震荡回升，同 业存单利率有所上行。但从长期来看，理财产品底层资产收益率下行趋势明确，理财公司的"资产荒"局 面难以改变。 资产端收益率影响有限 从短期来看，央行降准降息政策对理财产品资产端收益率影响有限，上周存款降息、LPR下调等操作落 地，长债利率震荡回升。 "从2023年以来存款利率下降后的债券走势来看，1年期和10年期国债收益率的表现不一，存款降息并不 一定会带来债券收益率快速下行，更多需要考虑当时的基本面、政策环境和交易情绪。债券收益率对此 次存款降息的短期情绪反应已告一段落，但国有大行为了预防存款搬家而提价发行同业存单的情况将持 续。国有大行发行的同业存单配置价值上升。"东吴证券研究所相关分析人员表示。 具体来看，5月19日，债市尾盘出现存款利率下调预期，10 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent trend of banks triggering early redemption of convertible bonds due to rising stock prices, indicating a shift in the convertible bond market dynamics [1][2][4] - Hangzhou Bank announced the early redemption of its "Hangyin Convertible Bond" as its stock price exceeded 130% of the conversion price for 15 trading days, marking a significant event in the convertible bond market [1][2] - Suzhou Bank also triggered early redemption of its "Suhang Convertible Bond," with the stock price meeting the required threshold, showcasing a growing trend among banks to exercise redemption rights [2][3] Group 2 - The redemption price for Suhang Convertible Bond is set at 101.35 yuan per bond, including interest, with a total redemption amount of 3.5869 million yuan, indicating a minor impact on the bank's financials [3] - The market for bank convertible bonds is shrinking, with only 10 remaining in circulation, and the upcoming redemption of Hangyin Convertible Bond and the maturity of Pudong Development Bank's bond will further reduce the market size [4][5] - The current outstanding bank convertible bonds are estimated to be around 200 billion yuan, accounting for 27% of the total convertible bond market, but this is expected to decrease significantly by 2025 due to a lack of new issuances [4][5] Group 3 - The low conversion rates of several bank convertible bonds are concerning, with five bonds having over 99% unconverted ratios, which may increase repayment pressure for banks [5][6] - Despite the low conversion rates, there is optimism that banks can alleviate repayment pressures by attracting strategic investors to convert bonds before maturity [6] - The demand for high-rated bank convertible bonds remains strong, and the market is anticipating new issuances to replenish the supply [6]

| 公询 各资格:证监许可【 | ICTERIA | 日度 策略参 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/05 | | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 往后看,随着市场对关税冲击的波动与政策护盘动能趋于衰减, | | | | 在缺乏增量催化因素的背景下,短期或转入震荡整固阶段。策略 | 最新 | 股指谨慎观望为主,关注宏观增量信号。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 宏观金融 | 国 | 空间。 | | | | | 金价短期或再度进入震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 農汤 | 用守 | 短期高位区间震荡，但中期上方空间有限。 | 震荡 | 日銀 | - Fel | | 海外铜矿供应扰动提振铜价,但近期国内外宏观数据偏弱压制市 | 看空 | 场风险偏好, 叠加铜下游需求有所转弱,铜价上行空间变限,短 | 期谨防回落风险。 | | | | | 近期电解铝低库存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间 | 農汤 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of investment opportunities, particularly focusing on the emergence of credit bond ETFs as a significant financial tool in the current low-interest-rate environment [2][21]. Group 1: Market Context - The current economic environment is characterized by a decline in risk-free interest rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1% and money market fund yields decreasing, indicating a shift from a stable investment climate to one of uncertainty [1]. - Investors are increasingly seeking stable value anchors as the market experiences heightened volatility, leading to a new normal of "asset scarcity" [1]. Group 2: Credit Bond ETF Overview - Credit bond ETFs combine the stability of credit bonds with the flexibility of ETFs, evolving from a supporting role to a central component in investment strategies [2]. - Credit bonds are defined as bonds that rely on the issuer's creditworthiness rather than government backing, including various types of corporate and financial institution-issued bonds [3]. - The structure of credit bond ETFs allows for T+0 trading, enabling investors to quickly adjust their positions in response to market changes, thus avoiding the delays associated with traditional fund subscriptions and redemptions [6][8]. Group 3: Investment Logic - Credit bond ETFs offer cost efficiency, with management and custody fees significantly lower than those of actively managed bond funds, potentially leading to greater long-term returns due to compounding effects [10]. - The investment style of credit bond ETFs is characterized by a dual filtering mechanism that emphasizes high credit ratings and shorter durations, reducing sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations [11][15]. - The current market conditions suggest a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds, balancing the likelihood of continued monetary easing with the need for flexibility in uncertain environments [19][20]. Group 4: Evolution of the Financial Tool - The evolution of the Chinese bond market over the past two decades highlights a pattern where market changes prompt innovations in financial tools, such as the rise of credit bond ETFs [21]. - Credit bond ETFs democratize access to credit bond investments, allowing individual investors to participate with lower entry barriers compared to traditional credit bond investments [22][23]. - For institutional investors, credit bond ETFs enhance liquidity and trading convenience, transitioning from a "hold to maturity" approach to a more dynamic trading strategy [24][25]. Group 5: Strategic Implications - The performance characteristics of the Shanghai benchmark corporate bond index suggest a balanced risk-return profile, making credit bond ETFs a viable option for investors seeking to manage risk while pursuing returns [27]. - The shift in asset allocation strategies from seeking higher yields to balancing risk and return positions credit bond ETFs as a crucial component in constructing resilient investment portfolios [28].

Group 1 - Tianhong Credit Bond ETF (159398) saw a 0.05% increase in early trading on May 27, with a net inflow of over 1.2 billion yuan in the last five trading days and nine out of the last ten days showing net inflows [1] - The latest circulating scale of Tianhong Credit Bond ETF reached 5.583 billion yuan, setting a new historical high [1] - The implementation of the general pledge-style repurchase business for credit bond ETFs is expected to commence soon, with multiple public fund institutions' credit bond ETFs meeting the criteria to be included in the repurchase pledge library [1] Group 2 - High-grade industrial bonds are expected to see improved liquidity following the implementation of the company's bond renewal issuance policy, leading to increased differentiation in liquidity among different grades of credit bonds [2] - Low-grade credit bond issuers need to balance liquidity and maturity pressure, while high-grade credit bonds maintain a high market acceptance, with differences primarily in liquidity risk rather than credit risk [2] - The current "asset shortage" effect is slowing down, with the credit bond market entering a negative carry environment, making credit bonds' returns generally superior to interest rate bonds [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the bond market and the potential for an "asset shortage" in 2025, with a focus on government and non-government financing dynamics [1][2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Bond Issuance**: - In the first five months of 2025, government bond issuance accelerated, with general government bonds reaching 1.9 trillion, accounting for approximately 40% of the annual plan, compared to 30% in the same period of 2024 [3][4]. - Local government bonds totaled 3.7 trillion, exceeding half of the annual quota, indicating a significant increase from previous years [3][4]. 2. **Non-Government Financing Trends**: - Non-government financing has been contracting, with a notable decrease in credit growth in the first quarter of 2025, adding only 280 billion, a significant drop year-on-year [5]. - The demand for non-government financing is influenced by actual profit levels, with rising costs and declining prices leading to reduced borrowing needs [5][6]. 3. **Impact of Price Declines**: - The downward pressure on prices has led to an increase in real interest rates, further suppressing the demand for non-government debt [6][10]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both showing significant declines, which are expected to continue, impacting overall market liquidity [5][6]. 4. **Role of Household Savings**: - Household savings are flowing into broad fixed-income assets, providing stable support for the bond market, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.2% in March 2025 [7]. - This inflow is crucial as it offsets the potential decline in government bond supply and supports the overall demand for fixed-income assets [7][10]. 5. **Central Bank's Monetary Policy**: - The central bank is primarily supporting government bond issuance but shows limited willingness to actively inject funds [8][9]. - A significant increase in fiscal deposits suggests that funds will be gradually allocated, potentially leading to a passive easing scenario similar to Q3 2022 [9]. 6. **Potential for Asset Shortage**: - The combination of slowing asset supply and stable or increasing demand could lead to a re-emergence or intensification of asset shortages in the bond market [10]. - The market is transitioning from discussions of "liability shortages" to concerns about "asset shortages," driven by the dynamics of government bond issuance and non-government financing [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of leveraging short-term positions and extending duration on long-term bonds, particularly starting in mid-June 2025, to capitalize on potential opportunities in Q3 [11]. - The expectation is that the yield on 10-year government bonds may drop to a low of 1.4% to 1.5% within the year [11].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of cautious sentiment and narrow fluctuations, influenced by recent interest rate cuts and government bond supply dynamics [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite recent deposit rate cuts, the bond market has not reacted positively, as these cuts are viewed as a continuation of earlier rate reduction actions [2][3]. - From May 19 to May 23, the bond market showed a mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1 basis point to 1.69%, while the 3-year bond yield fell by 1 basis point to 1.49% [2]. - The issuance of long-term government bonds has been weak, with a notable decline in the bid-to-cover ratio for recent auctions, indicating reduced enthusiasm in the primary market [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a significant mismatch between the growth rates of government bonds and bank liabilities, with government bond growth increasing from 17.0% to 20.7%, while bank liabilities only rose from 6.3% to 7.4% [3]. - The pressure on banks to absorb new government bond supply is expected to increase, leading to a potential reduction in their demand for bonds in the secondary market [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The supply pressure in the bond market is likely to ease in June and July, with a projected increase in government bond maturities and a slowdown in new bond issuance [4]. - Analysts anticipate that the net issuance of government bonds will decrease significantly in the second half of the year, which could improve the supply-demand dynamics in the bond market [4]. - There is a possibility of a "bond bull" market re-emerging, driven by stable demand for fixed-income assets and a potential decline in interest rates [5].