1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [2] - For bond futures, be short - term bullish as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective; for the medium - to - long - term, with rising risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, suggest hedging T and TL contracts on rallies [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On November 4, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.41% to 3960.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.71% to 13175.22 points, the ChiNext Index declined 1.96% to 3134.09 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 0.97% to 1387.24 points. Market turnover was 19,384 billion yuan, 1,945 billion yuan less than the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, banks (+2.03%), public utilities (+0.24%), and environmental protection (+0.15%) led the gains; non - ferrous metals (-3.04%), power equipment (-2.05%), and pharmaceutical biology (-1.97%) led the losses [1] - In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IM > IC, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 1,627, 165, and 3,646 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of - 375, - 200, 175, and 400 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 287, - 67, +145, and +209 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 151.33, 116.23, 29.7, and 4.77 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 14.96%, - 11.85%, - 4.73%, and - 1.16% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 15%, 14%, 20%, and 34% respectively [1] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On November 4, interest - rate bonds were basically flat. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.01%, T rose 0%, and TL rose 0.03% [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of +1bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.75%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.068, and an IRR of 2.01%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 250018.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.061, and an IRR of 1.95%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.2bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.012, and an IRR of 1.36% [2] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 1,175 billion yuan and withdrew 4,753 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 3,578 billion yuan [2] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, except for the manufacturing sector, the prosperity of each sector is lower than the same period in previous years [9]

国债期货日报 | 2025-11-05 央行买卖国债落地，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）观政策：国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势，培育壮大服务 消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"； 发改委也表示 "不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进点行业产能治理"；10月8 日，美方将多家中国实体列入出口管制清 单并征收特别港务费，10月10 日，交通运输部发布关于对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费的公告；10月11日，特朗普 于社交媒体发文称，从11月1日起将对中国加征100%关税；10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买 卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳预期信号；（2）通胀：9月CPI同比下降0.3%。 资金面：（3）财政：本次财政数据整体呈现 "收入温和修复、支出强力扩张" 的格局：前三季度一般公共预算收入 同比小幅增长0.5%，结构上依靠个税、增值税与印花税修复，但可持续性仍待观察；支出端继续加力，社保、教 育及债务付息维持较高增速，形成对总需求的稳支撑。同时，政府性基金预算收入仍偏弱、土地出让降幅收窄但 恢复 ...

11月5日，央行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个 月(91天)。 10月央行通过公开市场国债买卖净投放200亿元 10月27日，央行行长潘功胜在金融街论坛年会上表示，央行将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作。11月4日， 央行发布的10月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况显示，短短一周的时间，央行已经通过公开市场国债 买卖净投放200亿元。 2025年初，因债券市场供求不平衡压力较大、市场风险累积，央行曾暂停国债买卖。不过，从国际经验 来看，美国、日本等发达国家央行在公开市场买卖国债，是一种比较成熟和主流的基础货币投放渠道方 式。市场人士指出，央行在当前时点重启国债买卖有助于为债券市场重新注入强心剂，利好债市做多信 心凝聚。 此外，2026年财政可能维持前置发力节奏，央行提前启动买债，可为次年政府债发行奠定良好基础。华 西证券（002926）首席经济学家刘郁团队指出，从供给视角来看，今年四季度并非财政密集发力期，不 过，考虑到2026年地方政府仍有2万亿元的化债额度，可能于年初密集发行，央行提前启动买债，或可 有效缓解市场对资金波动与银行承接能力的忧虑。 此外，通过国债买卖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and government bond transactions, to maintain a stable financial environment amid upcoming liquidity pressures. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On November 5, the PBOC announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months, indicating a rollover of the same amount due in November [1] - Despite a total of 1 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing this month, the PBOC is expected to conduct another 6-month reverse repo operation, maintaining a net injection of liquidity [4] - The PBOC has consistently used reverse repos to supplement medium-term funding gaps since October of last year, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations [5] Group 2: Government Bond Transactions - The PBOC resumed government bond transactions in October, injecting 20 billion yuan, which is seen as a significant signal for the market despite the small amount [4][8] - The resumption of bond buying is expected to improve market sentiment and has already led to a decline in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from 1.8423% to 1.7984% [8] - Analysts suggest that to maintain a stable scale of government bonds held by the PBOC, it may need to purchase between 700 billion to 1 trillion yuan in bonds this year [9] Group 3: Market Impact and Expectations - The PBOC's actions are aimed at countering potential liquidity tightening and ensuring a stable funding environment, reflecting a supportive monetary policy stance [5] - The market is reacting positively to the PBOC's signals, with expectations of improved liquidity conditions and a reversal of bearish sentiment in the bond market [6][8]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months, aimed at stabilizing market liquidity expectations and supporting year-end liquidity management [1] - On the same day, the PBOC conducted a 1,175 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4,753 billion yuan in reverse repos [1] - The PBOC's liquidity management strategy reflects a "combination of short and long-term measures" to address liquidity needs, as indicated by the simultaneous announcement of the long-term operation [1] Group 2 - The PBOC has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy this year, creating a suitable monetary environment for stable economic development, including maintaining reasonable growth in money credit and reducing overall financing costs [2] - According to a report by CITIC Securities, the liquidity gap is expected to narrow to around 100 billion yuan in November, with the PBOC's recent resumption of government bond transactions indicating a clear intention to support year-end liquidity [2] - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the need to optimize the mechanism for basic currency issuance and enhance the role of policy interest rates in a recent article, aiming to improve the transmission of monetary policy to market interest rates [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes the importance of accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse, highlighting the need for enhanced competitiveness and influence in the global financial landscape [2] Group 1: Financial Development Goals - The 15th Five-Year Plan sets the overarching requirement of building a financial powerhouse, with a focus on enhancing China's global financial competitiveness and participation in international financial governance reform [2] - The plan identifies the construction of a modern industrial system and technological innovation as key strategic tasks that require robust financial support [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Management - The plan calls for the improvement of the central bank system and the establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework to ensure effective monetary policy transmission [3] - Emphasis is placed on balancing the timing and intensity of monetary policy, avoiding excessive liquidity while ensuring sufficient support for economic recovery [3] - The plan advocates for enhanced coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support major projects and maintain financial stability [3] Group 3: Macro-Prudential Management System - A comprehensive macro-prudential management system will be developed to monitor systemic risks more accurately and maintain financial market stability [4] - The plan includes optimizing the macro-prudential assessment framework and enhancing the regulatory focus on systemically important financial institutions [4] - The toolbox for macro-prudential policies will be expanded to address potential liquidity risks and ensure coordinated efforts among various regulatory frameworks [4] Group 4: Financial Sector Innovations - The plan outlines the development of five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, which are essential for supporting national strategies and optimizing financial resource allocation [5] - Technology finance aims to create a robust support system for technological innovation, while green finance focuses on facilitating the transition to a low-carbon economy [5] - Inclusive finance seeks to provide targeted financial support to small and micro enterprises and rural sectors, contributing to common prosperity [5] Group 5: Capital Market Development - The plan emphasizes enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, promoting direct financing through equity and bond markets [6] - It aims to shift the focus from financing-led to balanced investment and financing, encouraging long-term capital to enter the market [6] - The development of various financial products, including futures and asset securitization, will be prioritized to support the real economy [6] Group 6: Financial Institution Optimization - The plan proposes optimizing the financial institution system to ensure that various financial entities focus on their core businesses and improve governance [7] - It highlights the importance of small and medium-sized financial institutions and encourages policies to support their development [7] - Large financial institutions are urged to enhance their global competitiveness and adapt to international markets [7] Group 7: Financial Regulation and Risk Management - The plan calls for strengthening financial regulation and enhancing collaboration between central and local regulatory bodies to build a comprehensive risk prevention and resolution system [8] - It emphasizes the need for proactive risk monitoring and the application of regulatory technology to improve risk management capabilities [8] - The legal framework for financial regulation will be updated to address the challenges posed by digital finance and complex financial products [8] Group 8: Financial Infrastructure Development - The plan stresses the importance of building a secure and efficient financial infrastructure to support the stable operation of the financial system [9] - A robust financial infrastructure will enhance service delivery to the modern industrial system and improve China's influence in global financial governance [9] Group 9: Financial Openness and International Cooperation - The plan outlines a strategy for deepening financial openness, transitioning from market access to institutional openness [10] - It aims to create a comprehensive open ecosystem that includes the development of the Shanghai International Financial Center and the promotion of digital currency [10] - The plan emphasizes the need to balance openness with security, using macro-prudential management and regulatory measures to mitigate risks [10]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months, indicating a loose monetary policy approach [2] - On the same day, the PBOC conducted a 1,175 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4,753 billion yuan in reverse repos [2] - The PBOC's actions reflect a "long-short combination" liquidity management strategy, aiming to stabilize market liquidity expectations while providing support for year-end liquidity management [2] Group 2 - In October, the PBOC achieved a net injection of 20 billion yuan through open market treasury transactions, indicating a gradual restoration of treasury transactions as a regular liquidity adjustment tool [2] - The PBOC's Deputy Governor Lu Lei emphasized the importance of adjusting policy support based on domestic and international economic conditions, ensuring effective implementation of monetary policy tools [2] - According to a report by CITIC Securities, the liquidity gap is expected to narrow to around 100 billion yuan in November, with low volatility in funding rates anticipated due to the PBOC's recent resumption of treasury transactions [3] Group 3 - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng highlighted the need to optimize the basic currency issuance mechanism and maintain reasonable growth in financial aggregates in a recent article [3] - The focus is on enhancing the role of policy interest rates and narrowing the width of the short-term interest rate corridor to improve the transmission of monetary policy to market rates [3]

Group 1 - Amazon's stock price surged to a historical high following the announcement of a $38 billion computing power contract with OpenAI, reflecting the ongoing excitement in the AI trading sector [8][14] - The S&P 500 index showed mixed results, with over 400 constituent stocks declining during the trading session, indicating potential underlying market weaknesses despite the index closing in the green [8][10] - Major tech stocks exhibited varied performance, with Nvidia and Tesla rising over 2%, while Broadcom, Meta, and Oracle fell over 1%, highlighting the volatility within the tech sector [8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's internal debates on interest rate paths are creating uncertainty in the market, with a 67.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, down from over 90% a week prior [10] - Fed officials are divided on economic outlooks, with some advocating for aggressive rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation and employment stability [12][14] - The lack of official economic data due to the government shutdown is leading economists and policymakers to rely more on private reports, complicating the assessment of the economic and employment landscape [5][6]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong International Financial Leaders Investment Summit opened on November 4, attracting officials from mainland financial regulatory bodies, Hong Kong government financial officials, and executives from major global financial institutions to discuss current hot topics of interest to global investors [1] - Hong Kong's financial market has shown exceptional performance this year, with an average daily trading volume exceeding $32 billion, doubling compared to last year; 80 IPO projects were completed in the first ten months, raising over $26 billion, making it the world's leader in IPO fundraising [1] - The Hong Kong government is actively promoting reforms to maintain this momentum, allowing overseas companies to raise funds and enhancing trade risk management efficiency, while also promoting RMB stock trading [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy this year, releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity by lowering the reserve requirement ratio, and has taken measures to reduce financing costs for society [2] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, significant achievements in the opening of China's capital market to foreign investment include comprehensive industry access, deepening market connectivity, and steady progress in product openness [2] - The current global economic and financial landscape is facing increasing uncertainties, making it crucial to accurately grasp international economic trends and promote coordinated development between mainland and Hong Kong capital markets [2] Group 3 - Support for mainland insurance companies to issue catastrophe bonds and insurance-linked securities in Hong Kong is being promoted, along with financial service facilitation in the Greater Bay Area [3] - Strengthening cooperation in technology, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance between mainland and Hong Kong is a focus, leveraging Hong Kong's advantages in technological innovation and intellectual property protection [3] - The opening of China's financial sector is increasingly welcomed by foreign investment institutions, with a consensus forming around investing in and deepening engagement with China [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing measures to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system through a series of reverse repos, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance to counter potential liquidity tightening [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On November 5, 2025, the PBOC will conduct a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tender, multi-price bidding operation for 700 billion yuan (approximately 700 billion RMB) in a buyout reverse repo with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - Additionally, the PBOC has conducted a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation for 117.5 billion yuan in a 7-day reverse repo [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The combined buyout reverse repos for November will continue to inject medium-term liquidity into the market for the sixth consecutive month [1] - The issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bonds is expected to occur before the end of the year, which will likely lead to a high level of government bond issuance in November [1] - The completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments in October is anticipated to drive rapid growth in associated loans, while the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit in November will also increase significantly [1]