回撤方面，截至2025年12月26日，国开债券ETF近半年最大回撤0.12%，相对基准回撤0.17%，在可比基 金中回撤最小。回撤后修复天数为8天。 费率方面，国开债券ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%，费率在可比基金中最低。 机构认为，考虑支持经济和政府债发行，以及应对人民币升值，预计央行货币政策依然会保持宽松取 向，但降息的概率不大（春节后概率更大），考虑明年初银行资金会优先支持信贷，预计隔夜利率会小 幅回升，7天资金利率预计继续保持稳定。因此表现偏强的短端国债利率进一步下行空间有限，其余短 端品种在资金宽松背景下建议重点关注票息价值。 从长端利率来说，虽然短端利率下行使得曲线变陡，提升了长端利率的下行空间，但需要关注两点：1. 经济开门红和权益春节躁动行情是否较强；2.短端利率在下行后能否稳定在低位波动。如果上述两点对 债市友好，那么长端利率在1月也有不错的下行机会；但如果权益表现较强，短端利率也出现回升，不 排除10年国债利率有可能上行至1.9%及以上。另外，在30-10Y利差方面，考虑明年超长债供给压力和 名义增速回升的逻辑依然存在，故30-10Y利差很难明显压缩，预计会保持在35-4 ...

股指：指数连续上涨，资金情绪高涨 上周，A股市场持续上涨，Wind全A收涨2.78%，日均成交额1.97万亿元，较12月均值显著放量。中证 1000上涨3.76% ，中证500上涨4.03% ，沪深300指数上涨1.95% ，上证50上涨1.37%。资金情绪高涨， 融资余额周度增加460亿元，至2.52万亿元。但由于指数仍未摆脱前期震荡中枢，期权隐含波动率低位 震荡，1000IV收于19.32%，300IV收于16.14%。股债比较来看，股票市场估值小幅抬升，Wind全A估值 22.27倍，债权收益率基本持平，10年国债活跃券收益率1.84%，权益市场更受青睐。宏观因素有限，但 热点题材不断涌现，推动A股连续上涨。 资金层面的热点是A500ETF在12月获得大幅申购。据统计，宽基型ETF12月净申购1100亿元，其中近 1020亿元为A500ETF。A500指数长期与沪深300走势高度相关，相关系数超过0.98，细微差别在于A500 指数成长标的稍多，例如电力设备、电子等板块。在A500ETF获得大幅申购的同时，我们关注到Top5 会员单位IF净空头近期显著上涨，二者可能存在对冲关联。因此，相关资金可能并不会 ...

文字早评 2025/12/29 星期一 宏观金融类 【行情资讯】 1、央行报告：着力健全有利于"长钱长投"的制度政策环境，显著提高各类中长期资金实际投资 A 股 的规模和比例； 2、商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准细化规则发布，对于承担国家任务、参与国家工程项目的 商业火箭企业，予以优先支持； 3、中国首批 L3 级自动驾驶汽车开启规模化上路运行； 4、国际金银续创新高。COMEX 黄金期货、现货黄金涨超 1%，本周累涨约 4%；COMEX 白银期货、现货白 银均涨超 10%，本周累涨约 18%。现货钯金收涨超 14%，本周累涨超 12%；现货铂金收涨超 10%，本周累 涨超 24%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.01%/-0.33%/-0.40%/-1.42%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.03%/-0.58%/-0.95%/-3.41%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.14%/-0.99%/-1.75%/-4.88%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.09%/0.06%/0.20%/-0.07%。 【策略观点】 年底部分资金兑现收益，市场面临一定的不确定性。但从 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Precious Metals and Commodities Market - **Key Drivers**: Quantitative easing, tariff policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and inflation concerns have significantly influenced the prices of precious metals since 2020 [2][4][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Precious metals have seen a strong performance, particularly silver and platinum, driven by global economic uncertainty and inflation fears. The internal rate of return (IRR) for precious metal projects can exceed 50%, making them more attractive than copper projects, which typically have an IRR of around 20% [2][6][4]. - **Copper Price Expectations**: The market anticipates copper prices to rise to $8 per pound due to insufficient current prices ($5 per pound) to incentivize new investments and production expansions [8]. - **Shift to Safe-Haven Assets**: Post-pandemic economic recovery in the U.S. has been weak, leading to a shift of funds towards safe-haven assets like precious metals, as confidence in U.S. debt repayment capabilities diminishes [9][11]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical uncertainties have prompted Western countries to accelerate the development of domestic critical mineral resources, impacting supply and prices [10][30]. Additional Important Insights - **Speculative Sentiment in Silver Market**: The decline in the gold-silver ratio indicates heightened speculative sentiment, with retail investors heavily buying silver, which could lead to a reversal of bullish sentiment [5][34]. - **Outlook for Industrial Metals**: The outlook for non-ferrous metals remains optimistic, with expectations of continued leadership in the market, particularly for copper, lithium, and gold [26][29]. - **Valuation of Precious Metals**: Precious metals are currently more attractive compared to other commodities due to lower initial capital expenditures and tighter supply conditions [6][31]. - **Market Volatility**: The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship could lead to increased market volatility, affecting interest rate policies and overall market sentiment [15]. Market Dynamics - **Investment Opportunities**: The current low valuations in the non-ferrous metals sector present significant investment opportunities, with historical data suggesting a positive correlation between low price-to-earnings ratios and market performance [31]. - **Future Price Risks**: The silver market faces potential risks from speculative buying, which could lead to sharp price corrections if sentiment shifts [40][42]. - **Impact of Retail Investors**: Retail investors are expected to play a crucial role in the silver market, potentially driving prices higher in the short term, but their speculative behavior may also lead to volatility [42][43]. Conclusion The precious metals and commodities market is currently influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical uncertainties, and speculative behaviors. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with significant opportunities for investment, particularly in precious metals and select industrial metals. However, potential risks from market volatility and shifts in investor sentiment must be closely monitored.

2025 12 28 1 12 2 3 LPR LPR 12 T2603 1 2026 11 2 12 4000 MLF 1000 3 GDP 4.3% 3.3% Z0016413 gaoxiang@nawaa.com 4 20 2011 1290 2025 12 28 1. 1.1 T2603 108.28 0.19% TF2603 106.03 0.1% TS2603 102.546 0.06% TL2603 112.85 0.5% 0.8bp 1.84% 7bp 1.29% 1.1 111.20 111.40 111.60 111.80 112.00 112.20 112.40 112.60 112.80 113.00 107.70 107.80 107.90 108.00 108.10 108.20 108.30 108.40 T2603.CFE TL2603.CFE(RHS) iFind 1.2 2 105.75 105.80 105.85 105.90 105.95 106.00 106.05 102.40 102.42 102.44 102.46 102.48 102.50 102.52 102 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月25日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.780 | 112.910 | 112.510 | 112.560 | -0.270 | -0.2 ...

日本央行 12 月货币政策会议纪要于周一公布，纪要显示，政策制定者就继续加息的必要性展开讨论， 部分委员呼吁采取 "适时" 行动，以遏制未来的通胀压力。 在 12 月 18 日至 19 日召开的会议上，日本央行将政策利率从 0.5% 上调至 0.75%，创下 30 年来新高。 此举是日本央行终结数十年大规模货币宽松政策和近零利率时代的又一标志性举措。 纪要显示，多名政策委员会成员认为，日本央行需进一步上调政策利率 —— 当前政策利率经通胀调整 后仍处于显著负值区间。 其中一份意见指出："政策利率距离中性水平仍有相当大差距"，并补充称，日本央行短期内应维持每隔 数月加息一次的节奏。 另有意见认为，日元走弱及长期利率攀升，部分原因在于政策利率相对于通胀水平过低。 责任编辑：王许宁 责任编辑：王许宁 日本央行 12 月货币政策会议纪要于周一公布，纪要显示，政策制定者就继续加息的必要性展开讨论， 部分委员呼吁采取 "适时" 行动，以遏制未来的通胀压力。 在 12 月 18 日至 19 日召开的会议上，日本央行将政策利率从 0.5% 上调至 0.75%，创下 30 年来新高。 此举是日本央行终结数十年大规模货币宽松政策 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 本周重点事件 & 指标 12 月 29 日 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国第三季度 GDP 远超预期，核心 PCE 符合预期，日本央行 10 月会 议纪要显示加息可能性；本周重点关注美联储货币政策会议纪要以及美联储主席人选或将揭晓等。 上周回顾日本央行 10 月会议纪要：若经济和物价预测如期实现，将继续加息。美联储克利夫兰联储主 席 Beth Hammack 表示，在通胀仍高于目标、数据存在失真背景下，未来数月内没有必要调整利率。她 称，11 月 CPI 的降温可能因政府停摆导致的数据问题而被低估，实际通胀或接近 2.9%–3.0%。在更清 楚评估关税对物价和经济影响前，倾向将政策利率维持在 3.5%–3.75% 区间至少至明年春季，并认为当 前利率可能已接近甚至略低于中性水平。美国第三季度实际 GDP 年化季率初值录得 4.3%，远超预期的 3.3% 和前值 3.8%。核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率初值为 2.9%，符合市场预期，高于前值 2.6%。此外， 实际个人消费支出季率初值为 3.5%，显著高于预期的 2.7% 和前值 2.5% ...

俄罗斯中央银行在12月19日举行的2025年最后一次董事会上决定继续降息，同时向金融市场发出维持较 紧缩货币政策的信号。市场预计，若俄经济形势保持平稳，俄央行有望在明年初延续降息。 一段时间以来，市场对俄央行采取的紧缩性货币政策持反对意见，俄央行受到较大舆论压力。俄罗斯总 统普京近日表示，俄央行面临持续压力，尤其是在关键利率方面，但根据现行法律，监管机构独立运 作。总体而言，俄央行不仅能应对当前经济问题，而且正在采取负责任的行动。 连续降息回应了政府部门与市场对降低融资成本的期待。俄罗斯国家杜马金融市场委员会主席阿纳托利 ·阿克萨科夫表示，监管机构的决定基于积极的通胀放缓态势，放缓速度超预期使第5次下调利率成为可 能，这将有助于降低企业信贷成本，从而支持经济增长。 不过，监管机构对货币政策基调仍持谨慎态度。普京表示，信贷市场的动态变化要求央行谨慎行事，防 止通货膨胀飙升，以避免再次提高利率。 纳比乌琳娜强调，俄央行将维持紧缩货币政策，以使通胀率降到目标水平，这意味着紧缩政策将持续较 长时间。未来的利率决策将取决于通胀放缓的可持续性以及通胀预期的动态变化。 俄央行认为，仅凭当前数据尚不能断定通胀放缓已成长期趋势 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the announced LPR rate remained unchanged. The central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting mentioned enriching and improving the monetary policy toolbox, conducting treasury bond trading, and paying attention to changes in long - term yields. The A - share market rose sharply, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds rose slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but was still very active. The term spread and variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed last week [1][12][43]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of December 26, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 39BP, at a historically low level. Considering economic data, the domestic economy was under pressure in November, and the GDP growth rate decreased. The deflation risk eased. The bond market is more likely to fluctuate. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to fluctuate at a high level recently [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of December 26, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 16BP, at a historically extremely low position. Given economic data and market conditions, the bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to fluctuate narrowly [3][14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The LPR rate remained unchanged last week. The central bank's meeting remarks, A - share rise led to the bond market rebound and a slight increase in ultra - long bonds. Trading activity decreased slightly but was still active. Term and variety spreads of ultra - long bonds narrowed [1][12][43]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury Bond: Low spread, economic pressure, deflation risk relief, expected high - level spread fluctuation [2][13]. - 20 - year CDB Bond: Extremely low spread, economic pressure, expected narrow spread fluctuation [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. The 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance volume of ultra - long bonds dropped sharply. Only 12 billion yuan of 20 - year local government bonds were issued [20]. This Week's Pending Issuance - A total of 2 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds are planned to be issued this week [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded with a turnover of 1.1535 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.8% of the total bond turnover. The trading activity decreased slightly compared with the previous week [26][27]. Yield - Treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds' yields changed last week. Representative individual bonds' yields also changed [43][44]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: Narrowed last week, with a low absolute level. The 30 - year - 10 - year treasury bond spread was 39BP, down 2BP from the previous week, at the 21% quantile since 2010 [53]. - Variety Spread: Narrowed last week, with a low absolute level. The spreads of the 20 - year CDB bond and railway bond against treasury bonds were 16BP and 19BP respectively, down 1BP from the previous week, at the 13% quantile since 2010 [54]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.96 yuan, an increase of 0.27%. The total trading volume was 560,000 lots (down 98,144 lots), and the open interest was 144,600 lots (up 2,655 lots) [60].