Group 1 - In August, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen recorded 5,267 transactions, a month-on-month decrease of 7.1% but a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. This marks the sixth consecutive month with transactions exceeding 5,000 units, indicating resilience in the market despite a slight weakening [1] - The new housing pre-sale market in Shenzhen remained sluggish, with only 1,352 units sold in August, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 13.4% and a year-on-year decline of 52.8%. Residential sales accounted for 1,248 units, also down 13.4% month-on-month and 50.8% year-on-year [3] - The proportion of second-hand residential transactions slightly increased, with 82.9% of the total transactions in August being residential, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3] Group 2 - Experts from the Shenzhen Real Estate Brokerage Association anticipate a potential short window of opportunity in the market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, suggesting that this period is likely to materialize [3] - Factors contributing to the expected market improvement include a peak in new housing launches starting in September, the upcoming National Day holiday, and increased demand for autumn wedding housing. Additionally, the recent strong performance of the A-share market has boosted some clients' asset income, enhancing market confidence [3]

Group 1 - BYD reported August sales of 373,600 new energy vehicles, nearly flat compared to 373,100 units in the same month last year, with cumulative sales from January to August reaching 2.864 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23% [1] - Great Wall Motors announced August sales of 115,600 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22.33%, with new energy vehicle sales of 37,495 units. Cumulative sales from January to August totaled 789,700 units, up 5.94% year-on-year [1] - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 44,579 new vehicles in August, surpassing a cumulative delivery of 900,000 units, achieving a record for new force brands. The average transaction price in August was 380,000 yuan, indicating strong market acceptance [1] Group 2 - SAIC Motor reported a total vehicle production of 376,913 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 44.05%, with new energy vehicle production at 140,510 units, up 60.08%. August sales reached 363,371 units, a 41.04% increase, with new energy vehicle sales at 129,771 units, up 49.89% [2] - Avita's August sales reached 10,565 units, a year-on-year increase of 185%, while GAC Aion sold 27,044 units, and Beijing New Energy Vehicle Co., Ltd. sold 13,530 units, up 3.47% [2] Group 3 - In August, Xiaomi's vehicle deliveries exceeded 30,000 units; NIO delivered 31,305 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 55.2%, setting a new historical high. Li Auto delivered 28,529 new vehicles, with a cumulative delivery of 1.3971 million units as of August 31, 2025 [3] - XPeng Motors delivered 37,709 smart electric vehicles in August, a year-on-year increase of 169%, achieving a new monthly delivery record. Cumulatively, XPeng delivered 271,615 vehicles in the first eight months, a 252% increase year-on-year [3] - Leap Motor delivered 57,066 vehicles in August, a year-on-year increase of over 88%, with cumulative deliveries of 328,859 vehicles from January to August, up 136.4% [3]

造车新势力方面，2025年8月，小米汽车交付量持续超过30000辆；蔚来公司交付新车31305辆，同比增 长55.2%，创历史新高；理想汽车交付新车28529辆，截至2025年8月31日，理想汽车历史累计交付量为 139.71万辆；小鹏汽车8月共交付智能电动汽车37709辆，同比增长169%，较上月增长3%，创下单月交 付新纪录。2025年前八个月，小鹏汽车共交付智能电动汽车271615辆，较去年同期增长252%。当月， 零跑汽车全系交付57066辆，同比增长超88%，月销量再创新高，今年1~8月，零跑汽车共交付新车 328859辆，同比增长136.4%。 前不久，中国汽车流通协会曾发文称，8月车市整体保持平稳，汛期高温多雨对消费形成短暂压制，随 着开学季购车刚需释放、818购车节等促销活动以及成都等多地车展相继启动，对终端销量形成一定拉 动。 鸿蒙智行表示，伴随90万辆交付里程碑的达成，展现出鸿蒙智行强大的体系化交付能力和市场认可度。 目前，鸿蒙智行已形成"五界十车"完善的产品矩阵，覆盖多元用户需求。随着多款重磅新车发布，鸿蒙 智行即将迈向百万里程碑时刻。 从华为汽车合作伙伴角度来看，上汽集团（600104 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate on the strong side. The overseas market is trading on the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the issue of its independence, with the falling US dollar index supporting the non - ferrous metal market. Fundamentally, copper production is expected to decline in September, and imported copper may increase. Although demand is affected by tariffs and pre - emptive exports, there is an improving trend [10]. - The decline of lithium carbonate prices is limited. After the market rebound, it stimulates downstream purchasing sentiment. With the approaching of the peak season, there is demand support below. However, the market is easily affected by industry news, and attention should be paid to mine disturbances [12]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to short on rallies. Although the price once rebounded due to positive EIA data and market bets on the Fed's interest - rate cut, the consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the supply - demand situation is weakening [13][15]. - Asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply - demand situation is weak, with the开工 rate falling, demand restricted by factors such as funds and weather, and limited cost support from crude oil [16]. - PP is expected to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate is gradually rising, and the peak season may bring some boost. However, the supply is increasing, and the market is affected by global trade wars and anti - involution policies [17][18]. - Plastic is expected to fluctuate. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. Although the agricultural film industry is improving, the overall demand is still weak, and it is affected by anti - involution policies [19]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate downward. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is large [20][21]. - The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The price is under pressure due to imported coal, and the demand is affected by environmental protection and production cuts. Attention should be paid to the progress of coke price adjustments [22]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate. In the autumn fertilizer peak season, there is some demand support, but the supply is still abundant, and the market is in a weak supply - demand situation. Attention should be paid to the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton fluctuation range [24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 1, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Polysilicon rose more than 6%, Shanghai silver rose more than 4%, caustic soda and Shanghai gold rose more than 2%, and container shipping to Europe, Shanghai nickel, and stainless steel (SS) rose more than 1%. In terms of declines, glass, coke, and coking coal fell more than 3%, lithium carbonate, iron ore, and soda ash fell more than 2%, and rebar and cotton fell nearly 2%. Stock index futures also showed different degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:19 on September 1, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai copper 2510 inflowed 1.989 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2510 inflowed 1.741 billion yuan, and Shanghai gold 2510 inflowed 1.488 billion yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 outflowed 4.304 billion yuan, CSI 500 2509 outflowed 3.721 billion yuan, and CSI 1000 2509 outflowed 2.89 billion yuan [8]. Individual Variety Analysis Copper - The market opened high and moved low, with a strong - side oscillation. The US PCE price index rose in July. China's copper imports increased in July, and the port inventory of concentrates rebounded. The smelter processing fee decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price may have reached a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline. The import of copper may increase, which will affect the domestic market. The demand is affected by factors such as domestic investment in power grid facilities and the weakening of external demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports decreased. The domestic production is expected to decline from August to September. The demand is supported by the peak - season stocking of power battery factories, but the market is easily affected by industry news [12]. Crude Oil - It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. US crude oil and gasoline inventories continue to decrease, and the refinery operating rate is still high. OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [13][15]. Asphalt - The supply - side operating rate decreased last week, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased, but it is still at a low level. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [16]. PP - The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure due to the end of the consumption peak season and OPEC+'s production increase. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak, but the peak season may bring some boost [17][18]. Plastic - The operating rate decreased on September 1, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is under pressure, and the supply is increasing. The agricultural film industry is improving, but the overall demand is still weak [19]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is mostly stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and the downstream operating rate is still low. India extended the BIS policy, and the anti - dumping tax on Chinese PVC increased, weakening the export expectation. The social inventory is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. The new production capacity is increasing, and the price is under pressure [20][21]. Coking Coal - The price opened low and moved low, with a downward oscillation. The price of Shanxi coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The import of coking coal increased in July, and the domestic production decreased due to environmental protection and production cuts. The independent coking enterprises' profit is positive, and the coking coal inventory is decreasing. The coke price increase is not yet finalized, and the steel mill's profit is weakening [22]. Urea - The price opened low and moved low, with a weak - side oscillation. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased in August due to maintenance and environmental protection restrictions, but the new production capacity will be put into operation. The demand of compound fertilizer factories decreased due to the September parade, and the industrial demand is affected by the real - estate market. The inventory increased, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the 1730 - 1780 yuan/ton range [24].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently weak, with futures prices falling and spot prices following suit. The market is waiting to see if there will be a mismatch in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. [2] - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are not good, and prices are mainly under pressure. [3] - The eighth round of coke price increase has been temporarily shelved, and there are rumors of price cuts. The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak in the short - term. [5] - The iron ore price is supported by the pre - holiday restocking cycle under high iron - making production, but supply increments in the second half of the year will limit its upward potential. [6] 3) Summary by Directory Steel - Futures prices of steel contracts are weak, with the near - month contracts moving towards the weak spot prices. The price center has dropped to between electric - arc furnace losses and blast - furnace costs, and the basis has widened significantly. [2] - On the macro level, there is a policy vacuum, and attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming parade on production and market sentiment. [2] - In terms of industry reality, steel supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and the inventory of building materials has increased significantly both on a monthly and annual basis. [2] - Suggestion: Stop losses on short - term long positions in steel futures and wait for opportunities. The cash - and - carry arbitrage is in the profit - taking window. [7] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese mainly follow the sector. [3] - The industry has turned from losses to profits, supply continues to increase, and it is difficult to have large - scale production cuts in the short - term. [3] - Terminal demand may not improve significantly during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, and the risk of a decline in steel - mill production is increasing, which will impact the demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. [3] - Suggestion: Sell at high prices. [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The eighth round of coke price increase has been shelved, and there are rumors of price cuts. The coking coal auction has weakened, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. [5] - The futures market of coking coal and coke is weak, and the black - chain index has fallen. The market is mainly concerned about the verification of steel demand during the peak season. [5] - The supply of coal mines and coking enterprises is still restricted, but due to the difficulty of price transmission downstream and the weakening of thermal - coal prices after the peak season, coking coal and coke prices are also falling. [5] - Suggestion: Industrial customers should pay attention to hedging opportunities after price increases. [7] Iron Ore - The black - metal sector is oscillating, and the influence of the near - month contracts on the far - month contracts has decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of the upcoming meetings on iron - making production. [6] - In September, the pre - holiday restocking cycle will support the iron - ore price, but the expected supply increment in the second half of the year will limit its upward potential. [6] - Suggestion: The support level of the 01 - contract iron - ore price is still valid. [6] Market Data on August 29 Futures Market | Contract | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change Value | Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2601 (Far - month) | 3160.00 | - 22.00 | - 0.69 | | HC2605 (Far - month) | 3352.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.03 | | I2605 (Far - month) | 763.50 | 5.00 | 0.66 | | J2605 (Far - month) | 1733.50 | - 9.50 | - 0.55 | | JM2605 (Far - month) | 1193.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.08 | | RB2510 (Near - month) | 3090.00 | - 26.00 | - 0.83 | | HC2601 (Near - month) | 3346.00 | - 16.00 | - 0.48 | | I2601 (Near - month) | 787.50 | 6.00 | 0.77 | | J2601 (Near - month) | 1643.00 | - 14.50 | - 0.87 | | JM2601 (Near - month) | 1151.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.13 | Spot Market | Product | Price (yuan/ton) | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rebar | 3250.00 | - 30.00 | | Tianjin Rebar | 3220.00 | - 20.00 | | Guangzhou Rebar | 3280.00 | - 10.00 | | Tangshan Billet | 2970.00 | - 30.00 | | Shanghai Hot - Rolled Coil | 3370.00 | - 40.00 | | Hangzhou Hot - Rolled Coil | 3440.00 | 30.00 | | Guangzhou Hot - Rolled Coil | 3360.00 | - 50.00 | | Qingdao Super - Special Powder | 670.00 | 15.00 | | Another Iron Ore | 715.00 | 10.00 | | Ganqimaodu Coking Coal | 1180.00 | 0.00 | | Qingdao First - Grade Coke | 1530.00 | 0.00 | | Qingdao PB Iron Ore | 778.00 | 11.00 | Spread and Basis | Spread/Basis | Value | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 - RB2601 | - 70.00 | 6.00 | | HC2601 - HC2605 | - 6.00 | - 19.00 | | I2601 - I2605 | 24.00 | - 1.00 | | J2601 - J2605 | - 90.50 | - 3.00 | | JM2601 - JM2605 | - 42.00 | 5.00 | | Coil - Rebar Spread | 256.00 | 0.00 | | Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio | 3.92 | - 0.03 | | Coal - Coke Ratio | 1.43 | 0.00 | | Rebar Futures Margin | - 88.63 | - 19.30 | | Coking Futures Margin | 112.17 | 2.42 | | HC Basis (Main Contract) | 24.00 | - 1.00 | | RB Basis (Main Contract) | 160.00 | 9.00 | | I Basis (Main Contract) | 25.00 | 0.00 | | J Basis (Main Contract) | 37.16 | 29.50 | | JM Basis (Main Contract) | 59.00 | 24.00 | [1]

8月中国百城新房价格环比继续上涨 二手房价下跌 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶表示，在"止跌回稳"政策目标下，新一轮楼市支持政策有望加快出 台，同时随着市场对9月美联储降息预期升温，国内货币政策空间也有望进一步打开。房地产市场已进 入"金九银十"传统营销旺季，她预计，房企在核心城市将加快推盘节奏，市场活跃度有望迎来阶段性回 升。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 中新社北京9月1日电 (记者 庞无忌)8月份，中国百城新房和二手房均价仍然保持环比"一涨一跌"的走 势。 中指研究院1日发布的数据显示，8月，中国100个城市新建住宅平均价格为每平方米16910元(人民币， 下同)，环比上涨0.20%；同比上涨2.73%。当月，100个城市二手住宅平均价格为每平方米13481元，环 比下跌0.76%，跌幅较上月收窄0.01个百分点；同比下跌7.34%。 该机构数据显示，8月份百 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper futures increased in volume and price, approaching the 80,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. After the Jackson Hole meeting, gold, silver, and copper all rose, with an accelerating upward trend since Friday. The approaching Fed's September interest rate meeting and the high - level volatility of domestic and foreign equity markets, along with the decline of domestic - priced commodities, led to capital rotation. In the industrial aspect, with the arrival of the peak season in the domestic market, downstream demand is expected to continue to strengthen, and copper prices are expected to maintain a strong trend [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum futures decreased in volume and price, with the main contract price breaking below the 20,600 RMB mark during the session. The general decline of the black - metal sector put pressure on aluminum, resulting in a significant divergence between copper and aluminum. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly on Monday. With the arrival of the peak season, industrial support is expected to continuously strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated upward, and the trading volume also increased. The nickel market showed strong performance in the context of the divergence in the non - ferrous sector. However, the oversupply of nickel elements continued to put pressure on the futures price. Technically, the main contract price broke through the 122,000 RMB mark, with strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the high level in late July [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 1st, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 140,400 tons, an increase of 20,400 tons compared to the 25th and an increase of 12,500 tons compared to the 28th [8]. - **Aluminum**: On September 1st, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 616,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons compared to the 25th and an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the 28th [9]. - **Nickel**: On September 1st, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2510 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 RMB/ton, with a price of 125,520 RMB/ton; that of Russian nickel was +450 RMB/ton, with a price of 123,770 RMB/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,700 RMB/ton, with a price of 126,020 RMB/ton; and that of nickel beans was +2,550 RMB/ton, with a price of 125,870 RMB/ton [10]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as the copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper canceled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report contains charts of the aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts of the nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 铜铝 | 周报 2025 年 9 月 1 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观回暖，旺季临近，有色呈上行态势 核心观点 铜：内外宏观回暖，产业进入旺季，铜价或维持强势 上周沪铜整体呈现震荡上行态势，持仓量和振幅均有所上升。沪 铜主力期价逼近 8 万关口，对应伦铜逼近 1 万美元关口。宏观层面， 8 月 22 日美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上发言偏鸽后，市场降 息预期升温，风险偏好明显上升，美元指数弱势运行，铜价呈现上涨 态势。产业层面，国内产业旺季临近，电解铜社库呈现去化，给予铜 价支撑。海外欧美 8 月制造业 ...

Group 1 - In August, Shenzhen's real estate market showed a mixed performance, with both new and second-hand residential sales declining month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The total number of residential sales in Shenzhen for August was 6,326 units, a month-on-month decrease of 13.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 10% [1] - The inventory of new residential properties in Shenzhen increased to 32,293 units by the end of August, indicating a longer absorption cycle of 10.1 months based on the average monthly sales over the past year [1] Group 2 - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen saw a total of 5,061 transactions in August, with residential sales at 4,175 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 21.8% [2] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in Shenzhen was 59,600 yuan per square meter in August, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.5% [2] - The average rent for commercial properties in Shenzhen was 75.3 yuan per square meter in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, indicating strong rental demand [2] Group 3 - The average price of new residential properties across 100 cities in China was 16,910 yuan per square meter in August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.20% [3] - The average price of second-hand homes in the same cities was 13,481 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.76% [3] - Recent policy adjustments in Beijing and Shanghai are expected to influence Shenzhen's market, with an increased likelihood of similar policy changes in Shenzhen to boost market expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing a mixed performance in August, with a decline in new residential sales while the second-hand market shows some resilience, indicating a cautious sentiment among buyers awaiting potential policy changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: New Housing Market - In August, the total number of new residential sales in Shenzhen was 2,151 units, representing a month-on-month decrease of 19.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.3% [1]. - The inventory of pre-sold new residential units reached 32,293 units by the end of August, an increase of 4,391 units compared to the end of June [1]. - The average monthly absorption rate over the past 12 months suggests a depletion cycle of 10.1 months, while the rate over the past 6 months indicates a longer cycle of 15.9 months [1]. Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market recorded 4,175 transactions in August, a month-on-month increase of 21.8% and a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2]. - The average transaction price for second-hand homes was 59,600 yuan per square meter, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.5% [2]. - The increase in transactions is attributed to a rise in high-quality listings and improved market confidence due to favorable stock market conditions [2]. Group 3: Rental Market - The average rental price for commercial properties in Shenzhen was 75.3 yuan per square meter in August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [2]. - The average monthly rent per unit was 5,690 yuan, which is a 1.5% increase month-on-month and a 0.6% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Recent policy adjustments in Beijing and Shanghai may influence Shenzhen's market, with expectations of similar policy optimizations that could boost market sentiment [4]. - The upcoming traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is anticipated to bring more activity to the market, supported by positive policy expectations [4].