林剑表示，关于中美经贸高层会谈，中方已经发布了消息。我们刚拿到这个相关的情况，双方已经发布了会谈 达成的联合声明，你可以具体查阅。 商务部新闻发言人就中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发表谈话 当地时间5月10日至11日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和 贸易代表格里尔在瑞士日内瓦举行中美经贸高层会谈。双方围绕落实今年1月17日中美元首通话重要共识进行 了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识。当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话。 2025年4月以来，美国政府在此前单边加征关税的基础上，又对华加征所谓"对等关税"，中国进行了坚决正当 反制。随后美方轮番升级关税措施，将对华"对等关税"税率从第一轮的34%先后提升至84%和125%。美高额关 税严重损害双边正常经贸往来，严重破坏国际经贸秩序。本次会谈达成了联合声明，是双方通过平等对话协商 解决分歧迈出的重要一步，为进一步弥合分歧和深化合作打下了基础、创造了条件。 双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共识。双方认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要性， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a volatile trend. Last week, the industrial data was below expectations, with a significant weakening in steel demand. The output of rebar declined, and the apparent demand decreased substantially, leading to an increase in inventory. The output of hot-rolled coils remained stable, but the apparent demand also declined, resulting in a corresponding increase in inventory. The real estate downturn and seasonal patterns contributed to the decline in the apparent demand for building materials, and hot-rolled coils faced pressure on exports due to overseas anti-dumping measures. On the macro front, the high-level Sino-US economic and trade negotiations achieved substantial progress [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3022 yuan/ton, a decline of 74 yuan, and a drop of 2.39%. The total trading volume was 8,123,194 lots, and the total open interest was 2,893,444 lots [2]. - SHFE hot-rolled coils had a closing price of 3157 yuan/ton, a decline of 47 yuan, and a drop of 1.47%. The total trading volume was 2,485,168 lots, and the total open interest was 1,395,031 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 696.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.5 yuan, and a drop of 1.07%. The total trading volume was 1,895,858 lots, and the total open interest was 699,233 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 877.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 53.0 yuan, and a drop of 5.70%. The total trading volume was 1,356,112 lots, and the total open interest was 418,835 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1446.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 91.5 yuan, and a drop of 5.95%. The total trading volume was 98,662 lots, and the total open interest was 50,876 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The fundamental situation weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2910 (-50) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3170 (-50) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coils were at 3220 (-40) yuan/ton [4]. Macro Situation - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced the introduction of ten policy measures, including a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points, a reduction of the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, a decrease in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points, and the establishment of a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-loan" [1][5][10]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of a financing system suitable for the new model of real estate development and re-approving a 60 billion yuan long-term investment pilot for insurance funds [5][10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will fully support China Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi-"stabilization fund" and introduce policy measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5][10]. - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10 to 11. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and issue a joint statement on May 12 [1][5][10]. Industry Situation - Last week, the rebar output was 2.24 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 2.14 million tons, a decrease of 780,000 tons. The rebar inventory at mills was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons, and the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons. The total inventory was 6.54 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons [1][6]. - The hot-rolled coil output was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The inventory at mills was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, and the social inventory was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons. The total inventory was 3.65 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The apparent demand was 3.1 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons [1][6]. Industry News - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva were candid, in-depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and achieving substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the Sino-US economic and trade dialogue and consultation, stating that China has noticed the US high-level's multiple statements expressing willingness to negotiate on tariff issues with China. The US has also actively conveyed information to China through relevant channels, and China is evaluating the situation [10]. - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, including measures from the central bank, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [10]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long-process steel mills, the profits of short-process electric furnaces in East China, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the output of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the social and mill inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the total inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, and the apparent consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils [9][11][13]

| 上游PX装置检修密集,PX的内外价差有明显的修复。由于PTA的利 | 润修复,PX的采购需求明显走强,浮动价格开始走强,国内PTA和 | PTA | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重整装置计划在5月期间检修更多装置。聚酯的超高负荷使得PTA | 的需求得到了支撑。 | | | | | | | | 乙二醇装置检修,江苏以及浙江大型装置降负,煤制装置已经出 | 農汤 | 7 -- 四 | 能源化工 | 现检修。 | | | | | PTA略有紧张的局面导致短纤的成本支撑走强,并且在高基差的情 | 短年 | 看 % | 况下,短纤表现较为强势。 | | | | | | 纯苯需求的疲弱价格继续下行。重整装置利润的下滑已经清晰而 | 明确地开始影响装置的负荷。纯苯的暴跌之后。纯苯下游需求继 | 苯乙烯 | 看零 | 续转弱。 | | | | | 市场预期利好,情绪偏强,短期内尿素行情大概率坚挺上行。 | 看多 | 尿素 | 基差追高,回补积极,短期内甲醇价格区间震荡运行。中长期甲 | 用量 | 農物 | | | | 醇现货 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant reduction of tariffs between the US and China, as announced in the joint statement from the Geneva trade talks [1][3] - Following the announcement, gold prices dropped nearly $50, while the US dollar index rose above the 101 mark [1] - Oil prices surged over 3% on the day of the announcement, indicating a positive market reaction to the tariff reductions [1] Group 2 - The US has committed to modifying tariffs on Chinese goods by suspending 24% of the tariffs for the first 90 days and retaining a 10% tariff, while also canceling additional tariffs imposed under previous executive orders [3] - China will reciprocate by suspending 24% of tariffs on US goods for the first 90 days and retaining a 10% tariff, along with canceling additional tariffs as per their announcements [3] - Both parties will establish a mechanism for ongoing consultations regarding trade relations, with representatives from both sides designated for future discussions [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend. The supply is generally loose as overseas shipments are on the rise and major mines' shipments are gradually recovering, despite a decline in arrivals last week. On the demand side, although steel mills' profitability improved last week, leading to increased production and a slight rise in molten iron output, downstream demand weakened, and molten iron output is expected to decline in the next period. At the macro - level, domestic growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented, and significant progress has been made in China - US economic and trade talks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3022 | -74 | -2.39 | 8123194 | 2893444 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3157 | -47 | -1.47 | 2485168 | 1395031 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 696.0 | -7.5 | -1.07 | 1895858 | 699233 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 877.5 | -53.0 | -5.70 | 1356112 | 418835 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1446.5 | -91.5 | -5.95 | 98662 | 50876 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, steel mills' profitability improved, leading to active production and a slight increase in molten iron output. However, downstream demand weakened, and molten iron output is expected to decline in the next period. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, a 0.29 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 3.12 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 92.09%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.42 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a 2.59 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.92 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4564 million tons, a 0.22 - million - ton increase from the previous week and an 11.14 - million - ton increase year - on - year [4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, both shipments and arrivals declined month - on - month, maintaining a medium level. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.404 million tons, a decrease of 2.18 million tons from the previous week. Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, a decrease of 2.26 million tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.184 million tons, a decrease of 1.288 million tons from the previous week. Brazilian shipments were 7.712 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from the previous week. The total global iron ore shipments were 30.505 million tons, a decrease of 1.377 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 147.6471 million tons, a decrease of 0.8356 million tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons, a decrease of 0.1673 million tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10th to 11th. The talks were candid, in - depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and making substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [9]. - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [9]. - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, which was in line with market expectations. This was the third consecutive time since January this year that the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. After the Fed's interest rate decision was announced, traders still expected the Fed to cut interest rates before July and predicted three interest rate cuts this year [9]. - On May 7th, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point reduction in policy interest rates, a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan". The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of a financing system suitable for the new real - estate development model and approving a 60 - billion - yuan long - term investment pilot for insurance funds. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will fully support Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi - "stabilization fund" and introduce policies and measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [9]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and consumption in the iron ore and steel industries, including the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production, and port inventories [7][10][12].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-12 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-12 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 中美达成重要共识，会谈取得实质性进展 观点分享： 中美经贸高层会谈 5 月 10 日至 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院 副总理何立峰当地时间 11 日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高 层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中 美经贸磋商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声 明。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 国债期货 | ★★★★ | 国债期货：债市上周维持高位震荡，符合我们前期观点。5 月 7 日国新办一行一局一会会议 推出一揽子政策，宣布降准 0.5%，7 天逆回购利率调降 0.1%同时将带动后续 LPR 下调。会 议上亦介绍了其他结构性工具的调整与其他资本市场、实体经济的支持政策。受相关政策影 响，上周利率曲线有所走陡。4 月进出口数据全面好于预期，尽管对美出口收缩，但一带一 ...

豆粕周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 5 月 12 日 静待 USDA 报告发布 连粕或弱势震荡 核心观点及策略 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆7月合约较节前涨8.25收于1052.25美分/ 蒲式耳，涨幅0.79%；豆粕09合约跌21收于2899元/吨，跌 幅0.72%；华南豆粕现货跌480收于3140元/吨，跌幅 13.26%；菜粕09合约涨15收于2551元/吨，涨幅0.59%；广 西菜粕 ...

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector in the A-share market experienced a significant surge, with the sector rising over 6% at one point during the trading session [2][4][5] - Notable stocks in the sector included Huaru Technology, which hit the daily limit up, and other companies like Aerospace South Lake and AVIC Chengfei, which saw substantial gains [6][8] - The overall A-share market showed strong performance, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.37% and 1.06% respectively [4][5] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index rose and surpassed the 23,000-point mark, with Dragon Power Technology experiencing a dramatic increase of over 50% during trading [11][12] - Dragon Power Technology announced a significant contract with Chuangneng New Energy, which is expected to generate over 5 billion RMB in sales from the supply of lithium iron phosphate materials from 2025 to 2029 [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Lenovo Group is expected to benefit significantly from the recent positive developments in US-China trade relations, particularly through potential adjustments in tariffs that could enhance its market position and profitability [1][2][3] - Lenovo Group's stock reacted positively to the news, with a notable increase of nearly 30% since April 9, and a 5% rise on the morning of May 12 [1] - The company generates over 10% of its total revenue from the US market, making it crucial for Lenovo's business; a reduction in US tariffs could lower product costs and improve competitiveness, potentially increasing market share [1][2] Group 2 - On the import side, a decrease in China's counter-tariffs on key components like CPUs will lower procurement costs for Lenovo, enhancing its gross margin and allowing for greater investment in product development and innovation [2] - Analysts from Guosen Securities maintain a positive valuation outlook for Lenovo Group, suggesting a focus on the company with a 10x PE ratio, anticipating improved performance by 2025 due to favorable trade conditions [3] - Lenovo's CEO, Yang Yuanqing, emphasized the company's resilience to tariff changes, highlighting its experience and established policy response mechanisms to navigate international trade uncertainties [3]

军工股又爆发了。 今天上午A股市场整体强劲上涨，其中国防军工板块走势强劲，一度大涨逾6%，多股盘中涨停，其中华如科技（301302）早盘9:38直线拉升，9:39涨停。 港股市场今天上午整体上行。恒生指数盘中重新突破23000点整数关口。 港股通标的股中，龙蟠科技港股暴涨，盘中涨幅一度超过50%。 国防军工板块爆发 今天上午A股市场整体强劲上涨，主要指数不同程度上涨。截至中午收盘，上证指数上涨0.37%，深证成指上涨1.06%，创业板指上涨1.72%，北证50指数上涨 2.27%。 | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3354.53 | 10234.09 | 1410.60 | | +12.53 +0.37% | +107.27 +1.06% | +31.29 +2.27% | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1006.18 | 2046.39 | 5109.72 | | -0.14 -0.01% +34.63 +1.72% | | +38.61 +0.76% | | 沪深300 | 中证500 ...