1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The market may show a long - term back structure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the progress of bauxite suspension in Guinea, bauxite price expectations, and domestic alumina capacity changes. For now, arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [14][15][16]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [21][24]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [27][28]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on lead prices. Arbitrage and option trading should be on hold [34][35]. - Nickel prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [38][40][43]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [47][48][49]. - Tin prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [53][54][55]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to decline. Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [59][60]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to be bearish. Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [63][65]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [68][69][70]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 77,920 yuan, down 0.22%. The Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 6,043 lots to 525,000 lots. Spot premiums in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Alumina**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 32 yuan/ton to 3,216 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. Positions increased by 19,583 lots to 511,400 lots. Spot prices in various regions increased [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 20,270 yuan/ton. Positions increased by 3,682 lots to 520,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 0.63% to 22,245 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 1,119 lots to 227,500 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai showed a slight improvement in trading [26]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract fell 1.21% to 16,685 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Lead index increased its position by 7,829 lots to 73,000 lots. Spot prices decreased [30]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 rose 40 to 123,400 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 687 lots. Spot premiums remained unchanged [37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [45]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 264,780 yuan/ton, down 2,320 yuan/ton or 0.87%. Positions decreased by 4,639 lots to 54,185 lots. Spot prices decreased [52]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly and strengthened slightly, closing at 7,880 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. Spot prices generally decreased [56]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. Spot prices remained stable [61]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 5 to 12,880 yuan/ton. Index positions decreased by 15,580 lots. Spot prices remained stable [66]. 3.2 Important Information - **Copper**: Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter has resumed operation ahead of schedule and is expected to reach full - capacity production in December. As of May 22, copper inventories in mainstream regions in China increased slightly week - on - week, and it is expected that supply and demand will be weak next week [3]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea Axis mining area has been shut down, and the recovery time is unknown. The Guinea transitional authorities have designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas. Alumina production increased week - on - week, and inventories decreased [10][12]. - **Aluminum**: EU - US trade negotiations are still uncertain. Global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons. China's primary aluminum production in April was estimated to be 3.621 million tons. Aluminum inventories decreased, and imports reached a record high [19][20]. - **Zinc**: As of May 22, zinc inventories in seven major regions in China decreased week - on - week [27]. - **Lead**: Due to continuous losses in the secondary lead smelting enterprises, waste battery purchase prices in many regions have been significantly reduced. As of May 22, lead inventories in five major regions decreased [31][33]. - **Nickel**: In March 2025, the global refined nickel production was 317,300 tons, with a supply surplus of 39,400 tons. From January to March, the supply surplus was 123,000 tons [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's stainless steel exports decreased by 5% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10% month - on - month. As of May 22, stainless steel inventories increased slightly [46]. - **Tin**: In April, the production of integrated circuits, electronic computers, and washing machines showed different trends. African tin mines are gradually resuming production [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The US has launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on imported silicon metal from multiple countries [57][58]. - **Polysilicon**: In April, China's total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, up 4.7% year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The US is negotiating tariffs, and the negotiation of copper concentrate processing fees is approaching. The spread between Comex and LME is driving the flow of electrolytic copper. Although there is short - term pressure on spreads after delivery, the inventory is still far below the safety level, and demand remains resilient [4]. - **Alumina**: The Guinea policy may reduce the annual supply surplus of bauxite, and bauxite prices are expected to rise. Alumina production increased, but inventories decreased. Attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment is stable. LME aluminum inventories are decreasing, aluminum imports are increasing, and consumption is growing. Aluminum inventories are at a low level, which may support the price difference [21]. - **Zinc**: The market is in a state of supply and demand balance, and inventories are decreasing [27]. - **Lead**: Secondary lead smelters are still in a loss state, which supports lead prices, but the off - season demand restricts the upward space of prices [34]. - **Nickel**: In the first quarter, there was a surplus of refined nickel. Although nickel ore prices support nickel prices, the supply is expected to increase after May, and demand will enter the off - season [38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [47]. - **Tin**: African tin mines are resuming production, and the supply - demand tension is expected to ease. The demand side has not improved significantly, and prices are mainly driven by the macro - environment [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. Inventories are high, which suppresses prices [59]. - **Polysilicon**: In May, polysilicon production and silicon wafer production decreased, and inventories are expected to decrease. The spot price is weak, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [63][65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of 304 may be tight, but demand is mainly based on rigid needs. Spot inventories are difficult to digest, and prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [68]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Wait and see for unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][7][8]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [15][16]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate. Consider a positive spread opportunity for 06 - 09 contracts, and wait and see for option trading [24]. - **Zinc**: Fluctuate within a range. Try short - selling at high prices on a light position. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [28]. - **Lead**: Fluctuate within a range. Be vigilant about the impact of capital on prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and option trading [35]. - **Nickel**: Weaken with fluctuations. Consider a range double - selling strategy for options, and wait and see for arbitrage [41][42][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48][49]. - **Tin**: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to the supply situation of the ore end. Wait and see for options [54][55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse spreads for Si2511 and Si2512 [60]. - **Polysilicon**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and wait and see for arbitrage [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be strongly volatile in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage [69][70].

Report Overview - The report is a special report on the May Day holiday in 2025, analyzing the price changes of various sectors in the external market during the holiday, important news, and providing post - holiday trading suggestions [2] 1. 2025 May Day Holiday External Market Price Changes Exchange and Precious Metals - The US dollar index rose 0.58% from 99.22 to 99.8; the US silver continuous contract fell 1.27% from 33.04 to 32.62; the US gold continuous contract dropped 1.33% from 3315.2 to 3271 [2] Stock Indexes - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased 4.03% from 6894.72 to 7172.4; the German DAX rose 2.95%, the Hang Seng main contract climbed 2.69%, the French CAC40 went up 2.68%, the S&P 500 increased 1.46%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.13%, and the Nikkei 225 increased 1.04% [2] Commodities - Some commodities like US cotton continuous contract rose 3.31%, while others such as Brent crude oil continuous contract fell 4.55% and WTI crude oil continuous contract dropped 5.04% [2] 2. 2025 May Day Holiday Important News Stock Index Sector - Global major stock indexes performed well during the holiday. The rise was related to tariff negotiation progress and Fed policy expectations. The US proposed to lower tariffs, and the Fed's potential rate - cut in the future could ease global liquidity pressure [3] Energy Sector - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day from June, which may complete the 2.2 million barrels per day total increase target nearly one year ahead. This led to concerns about supply pressure and a decline in oil prices [4] Precious Metals Sector - Gold prices fluctuated due to tariff negotiation progress. Even if tariffs improve, central banks' gold - buying trend may continue. Silver was under pressure due to unclear macro - economic situations and high - level gold price fluctuations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Strong US non - farm payroll data cooled rate - cut expectations, and low manufacturing PMI restricted the rebound space of non - ferrous metals [6][7] Black Metals Sector - For steel, production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and apparent demand rose during the holiday, but the sustainability is uncertain. For iron ore, it faced a situation of high supply, weak demand, and policy suppression [8] Agricultural Products Sector - Vegetable oils in the external market fell significantly due to the decline in international oil prices. Different agricultural products had different trends, such as soybeans and soybean meal having narrow - range fluctuations [9][10] 3. Post - holiday Trading Suggestions Energy and Chemicals - The crude oil market is expected to be weak after the holiday, which may drive down the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Styrene is expected to continue its weak trend [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - Non - ferrous metals may fluctuate after the holiday. Shanghai copper may have a relatively strong oscillation [13] Black Metals - Steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, and its upward space is restricted in the long term. Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][13] Agricultural Products - Domestic vegetable oil varieties are likely to follow the external market's decline. Dalian soybeans and soybean meal may continue the weak - oscillation trend, and corn futures may continue the pre - holiday strong - oscillation trend [14]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the market is positive as billion-level private equity firms increase their positions, indicating confidence in the current market environment [1] - As of May 16, the overall stock private equity position index remains stable at 75.16%, maintaining above 75% for six consecutive weeks [1] - 56.18% of stock private equity firms are fully invested, while 24.10% are at moderate levels, 12.64% at low levels, and 7.08% are in cash [1] Group 2 - Dongxing Securities notes that after fluctuations due to the tariff war and earnings disclosures in April, market concerns about index levels have decreased, shifting focus to market rhythm and opportunities [2] - The market is expected to remain in a range-bound phase, with the second quarter's fundamentals still unclear, and concerns about the fundamentals have not changed [2] - Eastern Securities highlights that substantial progress in China-US tariff negotiations has reduced economic downward pressure, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [2]

越南政府：美国与越南结束第二轮关税谈判，仍有一些未解决的问题需进一步磋商。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates were both cut by 10 basis points, in line with market expectations. A new round of deposit rate cuts may drive more funds into the stock market, bond market, and wealth management products, bringing new liquidity to the capital market. The decline in LPR is expected to boost residents' housing consumption and is more significant for the stock market from the perspective of investment yield and wealth effect [7]. - The precious metals sector rebounded significantly last night, with gold rising nearly 2%. Due to factors such as the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April, gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Since May, the stock index futures market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is mainly driven by policy easing and lower interest rates, but the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur [10][11]. - The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation. With the approaching of the rainy season in Southwest China and the expected resumption of production in Northwest China, supply may increase, while demand remains weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Last night, the precious metals sector rebounded strongly, with gold rising nearly 2%. The reasons for the rebound include the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April. Gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Gold trend strength is 1, and silver trend strength is 1 [22]. Stock Index Futures - Since May, the market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is driven by policy easing and lower interest rates. However, the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur. Overall, the market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, but short - term disturbances from the real economy should be noted [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - The fundamental situation is weak. Supply is expected to increase as silicon plants in Southwest and Northwest China may resume production, while demand remains weak, mainly for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Industrial silicon trend strength is - 1 [50]. Copper - Copper inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the price. Macro - news includes Japan's consideration of accepting US tariff cuts and the progress of the India - US trade agreement. Micro - news includes the cooperation between Codelco and Rio Tinto and the clearance of scrap copper in the US. China's refined copper production in April 2025 increased year - on - year [24][26]. - Copper trend strength is 1 [26]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, and alumina is expected to trade in a range. An alumina plant in Shanxi postponed its maintenance, and China's alumina exports in April 2025 increased year - on - year while imports decreased [27][29]. - Aluminum trend strength is 0, and alumina trend strength is 0 [29]. Zinc - Zinc is in a range - adjustment phase. High - profile news includes the prediction of the EU - US negotiation by Goldman Sachs and the progress of the India - US and Japan - US trade agreements [30][31]. - Zinc trend strength is 0 [31]. Lead - Lead is expected to trade in a range. Similar to zinc, high - profile news includes international trade - related news [33]. - Lead trend strength is 0 [33]. Tin - Tin is in a narrow - range oscillation. Macro and industry news includes multiple international events such as the potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel [35][37]. - Tin trend strength is - 1 [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, the contradiction in nickel ore provides support, but the economic viability of conversion may limit the upside potential. For stainless steel, the cost bottom is clear, but there is a lack of substantial driving force for upward movement. Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products, and there are also news about production and trade in the nickel industry [39][40][43]. - Nickel trend strength is 0, and stainless steel trend strength is 0 [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the trading situation at the mine end. The prices of lithium carbonate and related raw materials are declining, and China's imports of lithium - related products in April 2025 showed different trends [45][47]. - Lithium carbonate trend strength is - 1 [47]. Iron Ore - Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the driving force for price increases is slowing down. The LPR rate cut on May 20 is the latest macro - news [51][52]. - Iron ore trend strength is - 1 [52]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation. News includes South Korea's anti - dumping tax on stainless steel plates and China's steel production data in April 2025 [54][57]. - Rebar trend strength is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend strength is 0 [57][58]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the resonance of the black - metal sector, and silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate weakly as Australian manganese ore shipments resume. There is a lot of news about the spot prices, production, and trade of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [59][62]. - Ferrosilicon trend strength is 0, and silicomanganese trend strength is 0 [63]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal are in a bottom - oscillation phase. There is information about their spot prices, basis, and position changes [64][66]. - Coke trend strength is 0, and coking coal trend strength is 0 [67]. Steam Coal - Steam coal is expected to oscillate weakly as coal mine inventories increase. There is information about its spot prices and position changes [68][69]. - Steam coal trend strength is 0 [70]. Logs - Logs are in a weak oscillation. No specific analysis details are provided [71].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and positive economic environment in China amidst a turbulent international situation, advocating for a moderately loose monetary policy to support effective financing needs of the real economy [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the beauty care sector leading gains and the defense sector lagging [2][8]. - The total trading volume in the market reached 1.21 trillion yuan, with notable increases in financing balances [2][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a favorable cost-performance ratio for medium to long-term capital allocation [2][8]. Group 2: Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose to 1.665%, with a net injection of 177 billion yuan by the central bank [3][9]. - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [5][9]. - The overall economic environment is still in a transition phase, with real estate investment continuing to decline [3][9]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Copper prices saw an increase, driven by stable domestic demand and growth in power investment [3][16]. - Gold imports in China surged by 73% in April, reaching a new high for the past 11 months, indicating strong demand in the precious metals market [6]. - The aluminum market is facing potential supply issues due to geopolitical factors, while nickel prices are expected to remain stable amid tight supply conditions [19][20]. Group 4: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is experiencing a recovery in supply due to increased imports, while domestic soybean meal supply is expected to rise significantly [26]. - Corn prices are on a downward trend, influenced by high inventory levels and weak downstream demand [27]. - Cotton prices are fluctuating due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing trade negotiations, with a focus on new order developments [28]. Group 5: Shipping Index - The European shipping index is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price adjustments reflecting a return to fundamental market conditions [29].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has seen six consecutive days of gains, nearing a bull market and only 3% away from its historical high [1] - Concerns arise after Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, leading to a potential "sell-off" pattern among global investors [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the downgrade was anticipated, and the market is better prepared compared to previous downgrades, resulting in less volatility [3][4] Group 2 - Fundstrat's Thomas Lee downplays the significance of the downgrade, stating it reflects known facts about the US deficit [4] - The current environment of declining interest rate expectations may mitigate the impact of the downgrade on US assets [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts could pressure the stock market if economic uncertainty persists [5] Group 3 - Retail investors have significantly increased their buying activity, with a record net purchase of $4.1 billion in US stocks on May 19 [6][8] - The influx of retail investment contrasts with institutional caution, leading to a divergence in market behavior [8][9] - The optimism among retail investors is attributed to a perceived easing of trade tensions, despite underlying risks [8][9] Group 4 - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon warns of extreme complacency in the market, highlighting underestimation of risks related to the US deficit and tariffs [9] - Dimon predicts a potential decline in earnings forecasts, which could negatively impact stock prices [9][10] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor key factors such as tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve policies for future market direction [10][11] Group 5 - The current valuation of the US stock market is above 21 times earnings, which is considered high compared to other countries [11] - Future performance may depend on the progress of trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [11] - Analysts suggest that investors may need to balance their portfolios as the market approaches its historical highs [11]

研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 度陷入僵局，未来经济预期摇摆不定，金银比中长期中枢上移的背景下，金银价走势相关性下行，白银或 维持震荡偏弱运行。短期内，贵金属市场或维持区间震荡格局，关注后续关税谈判进展以及美联储官员最 免责声明 新发言。操作上建议，暂时观望为主，沪金2508合约关注区间：730-770元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 7800-8200元/千克。COMEX黄金期货关注区间：3200-3260美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货关注区间：31.20- 32.80美元/盎司。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is considering including "tax rate reduction" as an option in negotiations with the U.S. regarding tariffs, particularly concerning previously requested automotive additional tariffs and reciprocal tariffs [1] Group 1: Negotiation Context - The decision to consider tax rate reduction comes in response to U.S. President Trump's negative stance on tariff removal and the U.S. reaching multiple tax reduction agreements with China and the UK [1] - The aim of this consideration is to break the deadlock in Japan-U.S. negotiations [1] Group 2: Upcoming Meetings - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akira Amari, is scheduled to attend the third ministerial meeting on May 23, Eastern Time [1] - Negotiation insiders indicate that the U.S. has consistently refused to remove tariffs and intends to exclude Japan's key concerns regarding additional tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum from discussions [1] Group 3: Perception of Tariff Applicability - Following the U.S.-UK agreement on "limited import quantity low tariff quotas," there is a general belief in Japan that "automotive tariffs could also be applicable" [1]

日美第三轮关税谈判拟于23日举行 智通财经5月20日电，日本政府20日着手展开协调，拟由经济再生担当相赤泽亮正22日起访美，23日与 美方展开第三轮关税谈判。美国财政部长贝森特预计将缺席，谈判对象或为贸易代表办公室（USTR） 代表格里尔等人。 ...