投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年02月11日16时47分 上期所期货公司会员沪金净持仓排名前10 | | | ਡਿੰਡੋਕੇ | | | | सेंटिवर्त | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | きを東 | 增减 | 日比(%) | 名次 会员简称 | | 増減 | 日比(%) | | | -- 前5名合计 | 72.877.00 | 4,044.00 | 23.93 | -- 前5名合计 | 10.413.00 | 266.00 | 3.42 | | | -- 前10名合计 | 98.993.00 | 4.756.00 | 32.50 | -- 前10名合计 | 11.675.00 | 263.00 | 3.83 | | | -- 前20名合计 | 127.224.00 | 6.161.00 | 41.77 | -- 前20名合计 | 11.901.00 | 277.00 | 3.91 | | | 1 中信期货 | 21,886.00 | 690.00 | 7. ...

ATFX：受隔夜公布的美国零售销售疲软的提振，隔夜小幅回落的黄金价格在今日亚市再度反弹，巩固 了每盎司 5000 美元以上的涨幅，美国12月零售销售意外持平，显示消费动能减弱，为美联储降息提供 了更多空间。 当前金价已收复了约一半的失地，本周交易价格在每盎司5000美元左右。许多银行认为，由于支撑金价 上涨的因素依然存在，这波涨势将会继续。法国巴黎银行预测金价将在年底前达到每盎司6000美元，德 意志银行和高盛集团也持乐观态度。 ▲ATFX图 受地缘政治动荡、美联储独立性受到质疑以及投资者抛售货币和国债等传统资产的影响，贵金属金价在 1月下旬飙升至每盎司5595美元以上的历史新高。但投机性买盘的涌入导致涨势过热，金价在上周短短 两个交易日内暴跌约13%。 今晚美国1月非农公布，预计1月非农就业人数增加至7万（前值5万），失业率维持在4.4%，平均时薪 月率维持在0.3%的温和增速。虽然就业人数预计加速增加，但近期数据显示2026年初，美国就业市场 充其量仍处于停滞不前的状态。1月份的裁员计划是自2009年以来最严重的，而私营企业仅新增了2.2万 个工作岗位，相比之下，去年同期新增就业岗位为14万个。 金价在经 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：张忆东 一、交易性虚火已退，拥挤交易降温，黄金长线配置逻辑不变。 投机情绪降温。前期市场投机交易处于过热当中，一月底以来COMEX黄金期货的RSI指数已处于70以 上的超买区间，并在1月29日达到89.46的高点，自1月30日沃什获新任美联储主席提名后，市场将其降 息加缩表的政策主张解读为相对鹰派，导致部分资产回吐宽松交易预期，黄金此前估值偏贵，且仓位较 为拥挤，首当其冲受到影响，单日大幅回调逾10%，此后RSI指数回调并稳定在55附近的中性水平，宏 观层面的预期差为市场情绪提供了一个降温的契机，交易性虚火减退（图1）。 图1：黄金投机情绪降温 三、日本选举引发繁荣憧憬，可能也是短期虚火，长期潜在的地缘政治风险可能会提升。 数据来源：WIND， 海 通国际 黄金长期牛市逻辑不变。根据历史规律，黄金价格的长期趋势往往由重大历史事件和地缘政治变动驱 动，黄金对国际格局的大变动与地缘动荡高度敏感。1970年代黄金的上一轮大牛市的背景正是大国博 弈，而当前处于百年未有之大变局，国际秩序的重构才是真正推动本次黄金超级大牛市的核心逻辑。立 足 ...

来源：市场资讯 2月11日，ATFX：受隔夜公布的美国零售销售疲软的提振，隔夜小幅回落的黄金价格在今日亚市再度反 弹，巩固了每盎司 5000 美元以上的涨幅，美国12月零售销售意外持平，显示消费动能减弱，为美联储 降息提供了更多空间。 当前金价已收复了约一半的失地，本周交易价格在每盎司5000美元左右。许多银行认为，由于支撑金价 上涨的因素依然存在，这波涨势将会继续。法国巴黎银行预测金价将在年底前达到每盎司6000美元，德 意志银行和高盛集团也持乐观态度。 受地缘政治动荡、美联储独立性受到质疑以及投资者抛售货币和国债等传统资产的影响，贵金属金价在 1月下旬飙升至每盎司5595美元以上的历史新高。但投机性买盘的涌入导致涨势过热，金价在上周短短 两个交易日内暴跌约13%。 今晚美国1月非农公布，预计1月非农就业人数增加至7万（前值5万），失业率维持在4.4%，平均时薪 月率维持在0.3%的温和增速。虽然就业人数预计加速增加，但近期数据显示2026年初，美国就业市场 充其量仍处于停滞不前的状态。1月份的裁员计划是自2009年以来最严重的，而私营企业仅新增了2.2万 个工作岗位，相比之下，去年同期新增就业岗位为14万 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a mild increase, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 27,266.38 points, up 83.23 points, a rise of 0.31% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,499.99 points, increasing by 48.96 points, a rise of 0.90% [3] Sector Performance - Gold stocks showed strength after previous adjustments, with Zijin Mining International (HK02259) rising over 9%, Lingbao Gold over 6%, Shandong Gold over 4%, and Zijin Mining over 3% [5] - Wells Fargo noted that the recent pullback in gold prices is a healthy correction after significant increases, with spot gold prices down over 10% from record highs at the end of January, primarily due to profit-taking after a rise of over 30% above the 200-day moving average. The bank raised its 2026 gold price target to $6,100 to $6,300 per ounce, indicating over 20% upside potential due to geopolitical risks, market volatility, and strong central bank demand [7] - In the building materials sector, China National Building Material (HK03323) rose over 11%, China Resources Cement over 5%, and Western Cement over 3% [5] Future Outlook - Zhongyou Securities believes that the building materials sector will see significant valuation elasticity by 2026, with industries like waterproofing, coatings, and cement entering a phase of improvement. Price turning points are expected for gypsum boards, pipes, and glass as real estate and economic conditions improve. Short-term demand is currently weak, with a focus on post-Spring Festival demand and price increases [9] - According to招商证券, the recent volatility in the Hong Kong tech sector, represented by the Hang Seng Tech Index, is due to liquidity shocks, but the fundamental and bullish logic remains unchanged. A series of favorable factors are accumulating, and if the US dollar index begins to decline, the Hong Kong market will benefit from improved liquidity expectations [11] - 广发证券 anticipates a peak in lock-up stock releases from late February to early March, which could impact market liquidity. If the market adjusts before these releases, it may create a temporary bottom, suggesting potential investment opportunities following the Spring Festival [11]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Gold Valuation - Speculative trading in gold has cooled, with the RSI for COMEX gold futures peaking at 89.46 on January 29 before a significant correction of over 10%[1] - The RSI index has stabilized around 55, indicating a return to neutral market sentiment[1] - The long-term logic for gold investment remains intact, driven by geopolitical shifts and historical events rather than short-term monetary policy[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Concerns regarding the new Fed Chair's balance sheet reduction are seen as speculative, with expectations cooling[3] - The Fed's focus is likely to shift towards rate cuts rather than balance sheet reduction, with a potential timeline extending to 2026[3] - Current U.S. core inflation is running below the Fed's 2% target, opening the door for potential rate cuts that may exceed market expectations[4] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Economic Outlook - The recent Japanese election results have sparked optimism, but this may be a temporary sentiment driven by speculative froth[5] - Long-term geopolitical risks are expected to rise due to potential military expansion and constitutional revisions in Japan, which could support gold's upward trend[5] - Risks include political instability and economic growth falling short of expectations, which could impact market dynamics[5]

| 【中信期货航运】主力合约增仓下行,盘后MSK开舱3月环 | | | --- | --- | | 比持平于1900美元/FEU | | | 究 | 投资咨询业务资格: 工业与周期组 证监许可 2012】669号 | | 安婕锐 | 武嘉峪 | | 人业资格号: F03100682 从业资格号: F03117373 | | | 投资咨询号: 70021085 投资咨询号: Z0022651 | | | 现货市场仍处于降价周期、市场对3月淡季涨价函效果存一定怀疑、今日EC2605、EC2607、EC2609三个新合约上市。主力合约 | | | EC2604低开后中午跌幅扩大、盘中跌超5%，成交量有一定反弹。截至收盘04合约增仓，收于1179点，跌4.77%，当前持仓上涨至3.4万 | | | 手。部分合约波动较大，EC2607合约涨超12%收于1731点为盘面最高估值合约;EC2609跌22.99%收于1239.5点。 | | | 即期市场运价方面,据极羽科技,MSK3月首周运价持平于1900/2000美元。 | | | GEMINI: NSK开舱3月首周（3月6日）AE1上海-鹿特丹运价位于1200/1900 ...

今日周三(2月11日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于1117.72附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂1128.62元/克， 涨幅0.41%，最高触及1132.60元/克，最低下探1117.00元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普周二表示，正考虑向中东增派第二艘航母，以加大对伊朗的军事压力。同时，美伊双方 在阿曼斡旋下已重启谈判，旨在通过外交途径避免军事冲突升级。伊朗方面称会谈为后续磋商铺平道 路，但强调将坚持解除制裁及铀浓缩权利等核心诉求。 美国此前已在波斯湾部署航母战斗群，近期驻卡塔尔美军基地也出现导弹装载等备战迹象。特朗普警告 称，若谈判失败将采取"非常强硬措施"。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡计划在周三与特朗普会面，推动任何协 议必须限制伊朗导弹计划，但伊朗已明确拒绝就该议题谈判。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 从日线来看，沪金整体仍处于上升趋势中的高位整理阶段。前期快速拉升后，价格出现明显回落，但回 调并未破坏中期均线结构，当前仍运行在主要均线之上，趋势基础尚在。近期价格围绕 1120 一线反复 震荡，显示多空分歧加大，但下方回落时承接力量依旧存在，属于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran on OPEC+'s production strategy, particularly if conflict leads to disruptions in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil transport [3][13]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Strategy - If the U.S. and Iran engage in conflict, OPEC+ may need to adjust its production roadmap, especially if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 30% of global maritime oil trade [3][4]. - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases until the first quarter of 2026, having raised output by about 288,000 barrels per day during most of 2025, reflecting a strategy to rebalance the market amid oversupply concerns [4]. - In the event of U.S. military action against Iran, OPEC+ is expected to increase oil supply to mitigate potential price spikes, with an estimated capacity to increase production by about 125,000 barrels per day [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Oil Prices - The rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East pose a threat to OPEC's production, as conflicts could disrupt oil production in Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, leading to significant impacts on global supply and prices [7]. - As of January 29, WTI crude oil prices were at a premium of $1.10 per barrel above fair value, indicating heightened market concerns over potential disruptions in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz due to U.S.-Iran tensions [8]. - The average risk premium for oil during major geopolitical conflicts since 2016 has been between $25 to $30 per barrel, suggesting that current tensions could push WTI prices to theoretical levels of $85 to $90 per barrel [8][9].

投资稀土相关股票的美国主流ETF自年初以来不到一个月市值曾大涨7成，但短短一周内便大跌2成。中 国厦门钨业同样在大涨6成后，下跌20%。此前在地缘政治风险升温的背景下，稀土股曾持续走高。浇 灭这波上涨行情的是贵金属价格的暴跌…… 该ETF持仓权重靠前的个股中，全球锂业大企业美国雅保(Albemarle)在1月下旬较年初上涨4成，随后一 周内大跌2成。钨业龙头中国厦门钨业同样在大涨6成后，下跌20%。 此前稀土关联股价大涨的背后是地缘政治风险的不断加剧。年初美国对委内瑞拉发动军事打击，美国总 统特朗普又表现出有意拿下蕴藏着世界级稀土矿床的丹麦自治领格陵兰岛。对高科技产品不可或缺的稀 稀土相关股票价格出现下跌。投资稀土相关股票的美国主流ETF(交易型开放式指数基金)自年初以来不 到一个月市值曾大涨7成，但短短一周内便大跌2成。此前在地缘政治风险升温的背景下，稀土股曾持续 走高，而眼下同为矿产资源的黄金、白银价格下跌，对其造成连锁影响。持续上涨的稀土相关股票也显 露出暂歇态势。 土资源争夺日趋激烈，市场预期参与开采、精炼的相关企业需求将大幅提升，资金因此大举涌入相关个 股。 浇灭这波上涨行情的是贵金属价格的暴跌。特 ...