固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 深度报告 2025 年 7 月 1 日 相关研究报告 《如何看待美债利率回落》20231105 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《利率债与房地产的均衡分析》20240331 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《美联储能否实现"软着陆"?》20240602 《美国经济看点：AI 浪潮与家庭债务》20241103 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《DeepSeek，DOGE，贸易摩擦》20250209 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《AI、黄金与美债》20250302 《"以股看债"或成重要思路》20250309 《美联储如期放缓"缩减"》20250321 《美国经济：失速还是滞胀？》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 《欧债对美债的替代性》20250420 《贸易摩擦将迎关键数据》20250427 《为外部经济降温做好准备——央行 5 ...

*道指涨近300点； 市场概述 美国总统特朗普的90天关税减免将于下周到期，投资者正在等待美国与其贸易伙伴之间任何贸易协议的 宣布。加拿大周末宣布取消数字服务税，以促进与美国的贸易谈判。此前，特朗普上周五表示，美国将 暂停与加拿大的所有贸易讨论。 斯巴达资本证券（Spartan Capital Securities）首席市场经济学家卡迪洛（Peter Cardillo）表示："人们希 望最终能与美国贸易伙伴达成某种一致，这将防止通货膨胀失控。因此，你有良好的盈利前景，美联储 可能会在9月份降息，这导致了大量的购买势头。" *芝加哥6月PMI不及预期； *回购派息预期提振金融板块，高盛涨超2%。 周一美股全线上涨，标普、纳指再度联袂创历史新高，对贸易协议和可能降息的希望缓解了投资者的不 确定性。截至收盘，道指涨275.50点，涨幅0.63%，报44094.77点，纳指涨0.47%，报20369.73点，标普 500指数涨0.52%，报6204.95点。 二季度，道指累计上涨4.98%，纳指上涨17.75%，标普500指数上涨10.57%。 与此同时，美国参议院共和党人将试图推动特朗普的"大而美"法案，特朗普希望 ...

02/10年期美债收益率利差跌2.220个基点，报+50.466个基点，6月份累涨0.797个基点，二季度累涨 16.921个基点。 两年期美债收益率跌2.87个基点，报3.7192%，6月份累跌17.83个基点，二季度累跌19.27个基点、整体 交投于4.0592%-3.4305%区间。 周一（6月30日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率下跌4.89个基点，报4.2280%，6月份累计下跌 17.24个基点，二季度累计下跌2.14个基点、整体交投于4.6247%-3.8564%区间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly focusing on President Trump's dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the potential candidates for his successor, which could significantly impact interest rate expectations and U.S. Treasury yields [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump is reportedly considering announcing Powell's successor by September or October, with potential candidates including Kevin Warsh, Scott Bessent, and Christopher Waller [1][3]. - Warsh is seen as a candidate with a hawkish stance, advocating for monetary policy independence and prioritizing balance sheet reduction [5]. - Bessent is viewed as a dovish candidate, favoring close coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, which could lead to a more accommodative interest rate path [5]. - Waller, a recent appointee by Trump, has expressed a desire for immediate rate cuts, indicating a more aggressive approach to monetary policy [5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The market currently assigns a 76% probability to a Fed rate cut in September, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index to its lowest level since March 2022 [3]. - Analysts expect the Fed may cut rates 1 to 2 times this year, depending on inflation and employment data, with a terminal rate projected around 3% [8]. - The current federal funds rate is in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating a potential for further easing [8]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yields - Short to medium-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline, with a preference for 5-year bonds due to favorable risk-reward ratios [6][8]. - The outlook for 30-year bonds is less optimistic, as high U.S. debt levels may keep long-term yields elevated [8]. - The Treasury is anticipated to issue more short to medium-term bonds to meet market demand, reflecting a shift in investor interest [8]. Group 4: China and Currency Dynamics - The Chinese bond market is expected to remain stable, with 5-year and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.475% and 1.65%, respectively [10]. - The future of the China-U.S. interest rate differential will largely depend on developments in the U.S. [10]. - Analysts predict a gradual appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its forecasts for the yuan's exchange rate to 7.1, 7, and 6.9 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, expressed confidence in the advancement of Trump's comprehensive tax bill, expecting it to be signed before July 4 [2] - Becerra described the legislation as the "beginning of addressing the debt issue" and opposed the idea of cutting Medicaid programs [2] - He criticized the previous administration's reliance on short-term debt issuance and indicated a preference for a different strategy moving forward [2][3] Group 2 - Becerra noted that the current 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.26%, while the 2-year and 12-month yields are 3.73% and 3.81%, respectively [2] - He anticipates that as inflation slows, yields across all maturities may decline, suggesting a parallel downward shift in the yield curve [2] - On trade issues, Becerra stated that tariffs have not yet caused inflation and expects a flurry of trade agreements to be signed before the July 9 deadline [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have shown a "first rise and then weak fluctuation" trend since May, influenced by three phases: initial rise due to improved trade policies and economic outlook, pressure on long-term rates from Moody's downgrade and poor 20-year bond auction, and a return to fundamentals with geopolitical risk premiums rising [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to maintain high volatility with limited downward space due to term premium support, reflecting a significant fiscal deficit pressure and increasing U.S. debt burden projected to reach $36.2 trillion by Q1 2025 [1] - The 10-year Treasury ETF tracks the 10-year Treasury index, which reflects price changes in the long-term Treasury market, serving as an important reference for fixed income investments [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have shown a slight increase, reflecting unexpected inflation rise as indicated by the Federal Reserve's preferred metrics [1][3] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 4.5 basis points to 3.76%, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3.2 basis points to 4.285% [1] - The core inflation rate for May reached 2.7%, exceeding expectations, with economists predicting an overall inflation rate of 2.3% [3] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring President Trump's renewed threats against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [4] - Powell reiterated the Fed's wait-and-see approach regarding interest rates until the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes clearer [5] - In the European market, most government bonds saw a slight increase in yields, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 1.8 basis points to 2.583% [5] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.4 basis points to 1.452% [7] - The U.S. Treasury Department had no bond issuance scheduled for Friday [7]

昨日晚间公布的美国当周初请数据不及预期，美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值进一步下修至-0.5%，市场投资者对美 国未来经济以及美联储政策出现乐观与担忧并存情况，现货黄金市场昨日再度维持区间震荡格局，昨日市场最高至 3350.27美元/盎司，最低至3309.94美元/盎司，最终收盘于3327.76美元/盎司，本交易日亚洲早盘开盘后市场维持在小区 间震荡，目前交投于3322.00美元/盎司附近。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向和美 债收益率情况。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.260-36.830，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低 吸。 若市场价格跌破36.260美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为35.800-35.400美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破36.830美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及37.200-37.600美元/盎司。（止损 为0.200美元/盎司空间） 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡 ...

黄金方面： 隔夜黄金继续维持震荡调整走势，大周期下行趋势未变。随着隔夜美联储官员的讲话，市场开始押注美联储降息，但笔者认为 不应过于乐观，最终结果可能低于预期。 降息预期再度升温，各期限美债收益率均出现回落，2年期美债收益率跌4.02个基点报3.7786%，5年期收益率跌1.59个基点报 3.845%，10年期收益率跌0.59个基点报4.2906%，30年期跌0.31个基点报4.8311%。 市场的观点是近期美国经济数据不佳，需要美联储降息以支持经济，大多数投行预期美联储最早从9月开始降息，今年可能最多 降息两次。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，目前只是美联储的预期管理，美联储内部的鸽派并未占据上风，且面对关税推高通 胀的风险，单一的经济数据并不能成为美联储降息的依据，投资者应谨防过高预期带来的爆冷。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，大概率只是对前期大阴线的调整。1小时周期面临上方长期均线和前期低点的双重压制，日内可能 以震荡为主，短线可关注下方3315美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 隔夜原油表现平淡，空间波幅极小，但也要谨防空间压缩后的爆发，基本面和技术面上，原油都面临很大的下行压力，基本面 和技术面可能处 ...

摘要周四(6月26日)本交易日现货黄金日内维持震荡走势，今日开盘报3332.09美元/盎司，最高触及 3339.76美元/盎司，最低触及3328.99美元/盎司，截止发稿金价报3333.11美元/盎司，涨幅0.04%。 【黄金走势分析】 周三黄金整体还是震荡，开盘走高至3337后，出现回落，最低在3312，美盘再次走高至3340，全盘跟预 期一致，即没有单边走势，也没有较大空间的涨跌，低多策略能做出有效利润。目前黄金收盘在3334附 近，按照目前的表现来看，首先维持低位震荡，低多的看法不变，另外需要注意今天周四，在这个变盘 的时间节点是否能出现破位性行情。 【要闻速递】 美元兑欧元跌至2021年以来最低，但兑日元上涨，整体走势受抑。渣打银行外汇研究主管Steve Englander指出，市场对美联储降息预期的增强削弱了美元吸引力。联邦基金期货显示，交易员预计年 底前降息62个基点，较上周显著增加。同时，美国10年期公债收益率小幅回落至4.287%，反映市场对 降息时机的重新评估。 周四亚市，美元指数延续跌势，截止07:40，最低触及97.53，刷新2022年3月以来低点。美元走弱和美 债收益率回落通常利好黄金 ...