Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, influenced by macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand trends [1][3]. Macroeconomic Factors - International oil prices are rising, providing support for copper prices. The weakening prospects for peace between Russia and Ukraine, as stated by German Chancellor Merz, have contributed to this increase [3]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are being digested, with a focus on upcoming employment data. The overall pace of rate cuts will depend on subsequent economic indicators [3]. Supply Side - There have been no significant changes on the supply side. As of August 28, the copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) was reported at -41.06 USD per dry ton. Additionally, domestic copper concentrate port inventories reached 550,000 tons as of August 29, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous period [3]. - According to Mysteel's research, domestic smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and production plans remain at relatively high expectations [3]. Demand Side - The market is entering the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," with an overall positive outlook remaining unchanged. In terms of industry demand, the electricity grid sector shows resilience, while the real estate-related sectors may continue to exhibit weakness [3]. Market Outlook - The copper market is expected to continue its range-bound operation [3].

Core Insights - In August 2025, over 30% of the top 100 real estate companies achieved a month-on-month sales increase despite an overall decline in the housing market [1][5] - The sales turnover of the top 100 real estate companies in August saw a year-on-year decline of 17.6%, but this was a narrowing of 6.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][5] - The upcoming "Golden September" is expected to see a low rebound in new home transactions, with ongoing differentiation between cities and projects [1][16] Sales Performance - The sales turnover for the top 100 real estate companies in August 2025 was 207.04 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% [2][5] - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, the sales turnover reached 2,070.88 billion yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year, with a slight increase in the number of companies exceeding 100 billion yuan in sales [5][11] Market Trends - The sales threshold for the top 100 real estate companies has decreased significantly, with the top 10 companies' sales threshold dropping by 4.3% year-on-year to 56.06 billion yuan, the lowest in recent years [8][11] - The market is experiencing a significant differentiation, with first-tier cities seeing a more pronounced decline in sales compared to second and third-tier cities [15][16] Future Outlook - The "Golden September" is anticipated to bring a low rebound in new home sales, driven by increased supply and favorable policies [14][16] - Core cities like Beijing and Shanghai have implemented policies to relax purchase restrictions, which may gradually restore market confidence [15][17]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价偏强运行，成交一般，进口货源虽有一定补充，但总体供应偏紧。产业链上，矿 价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚挺。不锈钢库存小幅回落，接下来要期待金九银十能否提振 消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但三元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线过 剩格局不变。 偏空 2、基差：现货122400，基差700，偏多 3、库存：LME库存209544，-132，上交所仓单21905，-108，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：窄幅震荡运行，下方成本线有支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The domestic inventory decline combined with the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is likely to support copper prices [2][1] - This week, the price changes for copper were +1.54% for LME copper, +0.91% for SHFE copper, and +2.78% for COMEX copper [2][1] - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is at 127,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 3.49% [2][1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to rising inventory levels [3] - The price of alumina has decreased by 1.24% to 3,185 CNY/ton, while the aluminum futures contract fell by 3.86% to 3,017 CNY/ton [3] - Domestic aluminum inventory has increased by 4.54% to 622,000 tons, indicating a potential for price stabilization around 20,000 to 21,000 CNY/ton [3] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium salt is experiencing inventory reduction due to seasonal demand, with potential for price recovery [4][5] - The price of lithium carbonate has dropped by 5.07% to 80,000 CNY/ton, while spodumene concentrate fell by 4.28% to 894 USD/ton [4][5] - The supply side shows a decrease in lithium carbonate production by 0.6% to 19,000 tons [5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a decline in raw material imports and an extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5] - Domestic cobalt prices increased by 2.30% to 267,000 CNY/ton [5] - The import volume of cobalt intermediate products in July was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 27% month-on-month and 73% year-on-year [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese market, focusing on various sectors including integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, petrochemicals, coal, and steel industries. The overall sentiment is optimistic about the market's future performance, with expectations of a bull market lasting at least two years due to several converging factors [1][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The Chinese stock market is expected to continue rising, potentially breaking the 4,000-point barrier, with a focus on mid-cap and low-valued blue-chip stocks as key drivers of the next market phase [2][8]. 2. **Economic Transformation**: China's rapid transformation in sectors like integrated circuits and AI is reducing uncertainty in social development, leading to a historical trend of long-term capital entering the market [3][4]. 3. **Policy Support**: The likelihood of new economic support measures and the easing of monetary policy by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) are anticipated, which will further bolster market confidence [5][6]. 4. **Traditional Industries**: Traditional sectors are entering a destocking phase, with improved visibility for stabilization expected between 2026 and 2027. The focus should be on overall trends and policy support rather than specific industries [7][8]. 5. **Investment Strategies**: Recommendations include focusing on cyclical stocks, especially in the petrochemical sector, and monitoring the performance of rare earth materials and copper-tin lines in the non-ferrous sector [9][12]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Coal Industry Dynamics**: The coal sector is facing profitability pressures, but leading companies like China Shenhua are showing stable performance and increasing dividend rates, signaling strong investment potential despite overall industry challenges [18][19]. 2. **Petrochemical Sector**: The petrochemical industry is recommended for investment, particularly in polyester filament and refining sectors, which are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and supply-side reforms [12][14]. 3. **Steel Industry Challenges**: The steel industry is currently experiencing a transition from off-peak to peak demand, with concerns about inventory levels and pricing pressures due to weak manufacturing demand [25][26][28]. 4. **Regulatory Changes**: New regulations in the coal mining sector are expected to increase operational costs but will enhance safety, providing a long-term stabilizing effect on coal prices [22]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: Specific companies are highlighted for investment, including China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and leading steel firms like Huaneng Steel and Baosteel, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [24][30]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future expectations of various industries within the Chinese market.

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, last week the PTA market followed the cost - end trend, rising and then falling. The effect of PTA device maintenance was less than expected, the liquidity in the spot market was okay, the spot basis weakened, and the processing margin, although slightly improved from the low point, remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, last week the arrival volume of ethylene glycol was scarce. It is expected that the visible inventory will drop below 450,000 tons early next week, and the arrival volume in early September will remain moderately low. In terms of demand, the polyester load this week rebounded to around 90.3%, and it is expected that the average load in September will reach 91.5%, with improved rigid - demand support. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the MEG market has been under pressure. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate within a range in the short term, with strong support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to device changes and polyester load [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - There is no information provided regarding the previous day's review in the given content. 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, a small number of polyester factories made bids. Transactions for next - week's goods were around a discount of 32 - 37 to the 01 contract, and for mid - and late - September goods, at a discount of 30 - 38 to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly lower. The price negotiation range was around 4,720 - 4,760. The mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 35, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4,740, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 44, indicating that the futures price was higher than the spot price, a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.81 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 days, which is a bearish factor [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, a bullish sign [5]. - **Main Force Position**: The net position was short, and the short position decreased, a bearish factor [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and the trading volume in the market was average. The price of ethylene glycol had limited fluctuations during the day, and the buying interest from traders was average. Spot transactions were around a premium of 60 - 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and today's spot transaction prices were relatively low. In the US - dollar market, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated within a narrow range, and recent cargo negotiations were around 534 - 536 US dollars/ton. The market negotiation was weak, and buyers were cautious [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4,534, and the basis of the 01 contract was 68, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price, a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 406,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 94,200 tons, a bullish factor [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, a bullish sign [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force's net position was short, and the short position decreased, a bearish factor [7]. 3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors**: In August, some PTA devices were planned for maintenance, which improved the supply - demand outlook. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has shown some expectations for the start of demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 - million - ton device had an unplanned shutdown [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continued to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remained cautious. In the short term, the commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost - end, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]. 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory changes of ethylene glycol [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, paraxylene, PTA, MEG, and various polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis data. It also shows the processing margins and profits of PTA and MEG [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 29, A-share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.99%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2798.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 172.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong on that day, closing at 4496.76, a rise of 32.98 [1][2]. - The weighted index of coke trended weakly on September 29, closing at 1643.0, a decrease of 15.4. The weighted index of coking coal was weakly consolidated, closing at 1149.0 yuan, an increase of 0.6 [3][4]. - The price of US sugar oscillated slightly lower on September 29. Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated slightly higher at night due to bargain - hunting after a large short - term decline. The supply gap of sugar in the 2025/26 season is expected to narrow significantly [5]. - The rubber futures price oscillated slightly lower on September 29 due to the decline in crude oil prices [6]. - The soybean meal futures price may continue to oscillate and adjust, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. The focus is on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [7]. - The live pig futures price may run weakly and oscillate. The focus is on the slaughter rhythm and market demand [8]. - The Shanghai copper futures price will remain at a high level, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path and trade situation may affect the market [9]. - The iron ore futures price is in an oscillating trend in the short term [9]. - The asphalt futures price will oscillate in the short term [10]. - The steel price will be under pressure and show an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and the focus is on the performance of peak - season demand [12]. - The alumina industry is expected to gradually recover with the arrival of the traditional peak season [12]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry has positive expectations, with supply increasing slightly and demand gradually recovering [13]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On September 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93, up 0.37%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12696.15, up 0.99%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2890.13, up 2.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2798.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 172.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4496.76 on September 29, a rise of 32.98 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 29, the weighted index of coke closed at 1643.0, a decrease of 15.4; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1149.0 yuan, an increase of 0.6 [3][4]. - Coke: Mainstream coke enterprises proposed the eighth round of price increase. The supply increased, and the demand was affected by end - of - month production restrictions. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton [5]. - Coking coal: Some domestic mines had production disruptions, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased slightly. The downstream demand will be restricted by end - of - month production restrictions [5]. Sugar - In the first half of August, the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3620000 tons. The supply gap in the 2025/26 season is expected to narrow significantly to 231000 tons from 4.88 million tons this year [5]. Rubber - On September 29, the rubber futures price oscillated slightly lower due to the decline in crude oil prices. As of August 29, the inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed [6]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean futures price rose on August 29, while the domestic soybean meal futures price was weakly oscillating. The domestic supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The price may continue to oscillate and adjust [7]. Live Pig - On August 29, the live pig futures price oscillated weakly. The demand showed signs of slow recovery, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year was still large [8]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper futures price will remain at a high level. The domestic supply of copper concentrates is relatively tight, and the demand is expected to be good in the peak season. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path and trade situation may affect the market [9]. Iron Ore - On August 29, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.77% and a closing price of 787.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased last week, and the price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On August 29, the asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.17% and a closing price of 3507 yuan. The production capacity utilization rate decreased, and the price will oscillate in the short term [10]. Steel - The steel price is under pressure due to weak supply and demand, but the cost increase may limit the downward space. It will show an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and the focus is on the peak - season demand [12]. Alumina - The supply of bauxite will gradually decrease, and the domestic supply of alumina may increase slightly. The demand is stable, and the industry is expected to recover with the arrival of the peak season [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum will increase slightly, and the demand will gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season. The industry has positive expectations [13].

Reporting Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range, with the price likely to move between 29,500 and 21,300. The lower limit is supported by the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, domestic anti - involution policies, and the possible invalidation of Trump's tariffs by the US Court of Appeals after mid - October. The upper limit is restricted by the realization of overseas hidden inventories and concerns about the decline in China's export growth in the second half of the year. In the short term, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate, and the market will be in a state of wide - range oscillation [5][13]. Summary According to the Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 29,500 - 21,300. Buying mid - term long positions can be considered when the price is below 20,000 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the next week, the support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 is seen at 20,600, and the resistance level is between 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: In early September, aluminum prices may still be relatively strong, and the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement in demand. The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see. Spot enterprises are recommended to maintain appropriate inventories [8][9]. Overall View - **Supply - side**: China's bauxite inventory has reached the highest level in the same period, and the supply can basically meet the production needs for the year. The alumina capacity utilization rate is at a high level since 2022. The electrolytic aluminum production is at the average level since 2923, and the production ceiling is controllable. The current import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss of about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year [10]. - **Demand - side**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased. The operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, and aluminum foils is expected to rise, while the growth of primary aluminum alloy is limited. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to enter an upward channel, and the orders of some building profiles have increased [12]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased by about 5% compared with last week and is about 23% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 6% compared with last week and is about 15% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [12][19]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 380 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is greater than 80%, and there is a trillion - level infrastructure stimulus and anti - involution support in China. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable and rising, the demand has peak - season expectations but no substantial improvement, and the inventory pressure is prominent, so the aluminum price will oscillate [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - **Bauxite**: The price of bauxite is expected to remain stable in the near future, with a slight increase in bulk cargo transactions this week [14]. - **Coal**: Due to the approaching major event, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and the procurement demand is postponed to after September [14]. - **Alumina**: The price continues to decline slightly, with oversupply, inventory accumulation, and a bearish fundamental situation [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has stabilized, the market sentiment has strengthened, and the purchasing willingness has increased [15]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - **Domestic**: The inventory of bauxite in domestic ports has increased slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate in the short term [17][19]. - **Overseas**: The LME aluminum inventory has basically remained flat in the past two weeks, and it is still at a low level since 1990. It is likely to continue to accumulate in the future [19]. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The profit of the alumina industry is about 380 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 3,100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,300 yuan/ton [21]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. Different sectors have different trends, with some expected to rise and some with limited growth [26]. Futures - Spot Structure The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contract has a premium over the far - month contract, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,830 yuan/ton this week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is stable. Due to the increasing market divergence, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has been reduced. The market will be in a wide - range oscillation, and the adjustment pressure in the next week is slightly higher [43].

Core Viewpoint - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in China for the first eight months of 2025 shows a significant decline, with total sales amounting to 23,270.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3% [3][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to August 2025 reached 23,270.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 13.3% [3]. - The equity sales amount for the top 100 companies was 16,275.2 billion yuan, with an equity sales area of 83.828 million square meters [3]. - The top five companies by sales in the first eight months were Poly Development (181.2 billion yuan), Greentown China (156.3 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (150.3 billion yuan), China Resources Land (142.5 billion yuan), and China Merchants Shekou (124.05 billion yuan) [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - August is typically a slow sales month for the real estate market, with a reported 30% decrease in supply and a 12% month-on-month decline in transaction volume across 30 monitored cities [4][5]. - In August, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 207.04 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% [5]. - Despite the overall decline, 33% of the top 100 companies reported month-on-month sales growth in August, with 21 companies experiencing growth exceeding 30% [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a potential recovery in September, driven by policy adjustments such as "recognizing houses but not loans" and lowering down payment ratios in major cities [6]. - The traditional peak sales season in September is expected to boost new home transaction volumes, with a gradual recovery in market confidence [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization with new policies expected to support recovery, particularly in September, which is traditionally a strong sales month for the industry [1] Group 1: New Housing Market - In August, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,910 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.20% and a year-on-year increase of 2.73% [1] - The increase in new housing prices is attributed to the introduction of improved projects in certain cities [1] Group 2: Second-hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities in August was 13,481 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.34% [1] - The trend of "trading price for volume" continues in the second-hand housing market [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - September is expected to be a period of intensive policy announcements aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with new support measures likely to be introduced [1] - As market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve rise, there is an anticipated increase in domestic monetary policy space [1] - The real estate sector is entering the "Golden September and Silver October" sales season, with expectations for property companies to accelerate their sales efforts in core cities, leading to a potential rebound in market activity [1]