Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 recorded at 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a contraction in economic activity[1] - The production index and new orders index were at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both declining by 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The new export orders index fell to 44.7%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting a significant impact from external demand constraints[9] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, with both production and new orders indices above 52.0%[1] - Equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-energy industries recorded PMIs of 49.6%, 49.4%, and 47.7%, respectively, all showing declines from the previous month[1] - The production index for the equipment manufacturing sector remained stable at the critical point of 50%[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The overall production activity in manufacturing showed a slight decline, with the purchasing volume index at 46.3%, down 5.5 percentage points from last month[3] - Domestic demand has been supported by policies promoting consumption, with significant increases in the replacement of old consumer goods, leading to a sales boost of over 720 billion yuan[10] - The overall price levels for raw materials and finished products have decreased, with the purchasing price index at 47.0% and the factory price index at 44.8%, both down from the previous month[16] Future Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index for April was at 50.2%, indicating continued expansion despite a 1.2 percentage point decline from the previous month[22] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicating expansion in the sector[20] - Risks include fluctuations in international commodity prices and geopolitical tensions that could further impact economic stability[23]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - April official manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - New export orders fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, reflecting significant external demand weakness[4] - Industrial raw material purchase prices dropped to 47.0%, a decline of 2.8 percentage points, suggesting ongoing price pressures[21] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - April construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, with new orders showing mixed trends[22] - Special bond issuance progress reached approximately 27.1% by April 30, outperforming the 18.0% of the same period in 2024, indicating strong infrastructure momentum[22] - Service sector PMI remained relatively stable at 50.1%, with new orders declining by 1.2 percentage points to 45.9%[32] Group 3: Tariff Disturbance Phases - The first phase (May-June) is characterized by a slight recovery in exports, projected at +0.9% year-on-year, despite increasing downward pressure[6] - The second phase (July-August) may see reduced production schedules and workforce optimization among export firms if tariff conditions do not improve[6] - The current period is critical for policy decisions, with expectations for more flexible responses to economic pressures from both China and the U.S.[6] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and a sharper-than-expected recession in the U.S. economy[7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★☆, indicating a clear downward trend and the market is evolving [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of the black metal industry is complex, with different products showing different trends. The short - term market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and inventory levels. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are expected to show a weakening trend [1][2][5] Summary by Product Steel - The steel market is in a weak and volatile state. The apparent demand for thread steel has declined month - on - month, and the recovery lacks sustainability. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils has stabilized. The iron - making water output has reached a high level, but the resumption of production will slow down significantly later. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the real estate market is still weak. The market will be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [1] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is slightly weaker. The global shipment has increased month - on - month, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded. The port inventory has started to accumulate. Although the short - term demand is still high, the frequent news of crude steel production restrictions has dragged down the market from the expected level. It is expected to be volatile, with short - term price support and pressure from the decline of iron - making water output in the future [2] Coke - The coke price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The second round of price increase was rejected, and the inventory is still at a high level. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - making water output has increased significantly. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rebounded slightly at the end of the session due to position reduction. The production of coking coal mines is gradually recovering, but the production has decreased slightly this week. The spot auction market has weakened, and the inventory pressure at the production end is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [5] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese has reached a new low this year. The port inventory of manganese ore has been increasing. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, but the overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Silicon Iron - The price of the 2509 contract of silicon iron has reached a new low this year. The iron - making water output has increased, but the export demand and secondary demand are generally weak. The supply has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's April manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to contraction territory[4] - The production index fell to 49.8%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points, while the new orders index declined to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points[10] - New export orders plummeted to 44.7%, a significant drop of 4.3 percentage points, reflecting weakened external demand[10] Group 2: Economic Factors and Trends - Seasonal factors and external environment changes contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with April historically showing negative month-on-month growth since 2016[6] - Price indices for major raw materials and factory output remained below the critical level, with the former at 47.0% and the latter at 44.8%, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances[15] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5%, showing resilience compared to other sectors, which experienced declines[17] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion[18] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, supported by increased consumer spending during the Qingming Festival[22] - The construction sector's business activity index remained robust at 51.9%, driven by infrastructure projects and government initiatives[26]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ，前值为 50.5% 。具体分项来看： 1 ） PMI 生产指数为 49.8% ，前值为 52.6% ，回落 2.8 个百分点。 2 ） PMI 新订单指数为 49.2% ，前值为 51.8% 。 PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7% ，前值为 49.0% 。 3 ） PMI 从业人员指数为 47.9% ，前值为 48.2% 。 4 ）供货商配送时间指数 为 50.2% ，前值为 50.3% 。 5 ） PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0% ，前值为 47.2% 。 其他行业： 1 ）建筑业：建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9% ，比上月下降 1.5 个百分点。 2 ）服务业：服务业 商务活动指数为 50.1% ，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3 ）综合产出： 4 月，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2% ，比上月下降 1.2 个百分点，仍高于临界点。 PMI 点评：三类行业继续 ...

Economic Indicators - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped significantly by 1.5 percentage points to 49.0%, marking the lowest level since June 2023[3] - The new orders index fell sharply by 2.6 percentage points to 49.2%, while new export orders decreased by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest since 2023[3] - The production index declined by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, reaching a 23-month low[3] Sector Performance - The inventory index for finished goods decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 47.3%, remaining near a low of 47.7% for four consecutive months[4] - The construction PMI fell by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, but the civil engineering index rose by 6.4 percentage points to 60.9%, indicating increased infrastructure investment[4] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 to 50.1, maintaining stability in service consumption[4] Future Outlook - The report suggests a potential slight rebound in manufacturing PMI in May and June due to expectations of a second round of export grabbing and marginal improvements in real estate supply-side confidence[5] - If export pressures increase later in the year, the central government may expand fiscal measures to stimulate consumption and investment[5] - The monetary policy forecast remains unchanged, with a potential interest rate cut of 20 basis points in Q2 and a total reserve requirement ratio reduction of 100-150 basis points for the year[5]

[Table_Title] PMI 回到去年 8 月 证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 30 日 4 月 30 日，统计局发布 4 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.0%，预期 49.8%，前值 50.5%。非制造业 PMI 50.4%， 前值 50.8%。数据发布后， 10 年、30 年国债收益率短时下行 0.5bp 又被抹平，日内窄幅震荡。同时 A 股窄幅 波动，红利和周期品种行情承压，科技品种走强。 关注以下几个方面： 第一，受外部冲击影响，4 月 PMI 回落到去年 8 月附近。统计局称受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠 加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，4 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.0%，接近去年 8 月的 49.1%。拆分来看，新订单 和生产分项是主要拖累，分别较前月下滑 2.6 和 2.8 个百分点，拖累制造业 PMI 下滑 0.8、0.7 个百分点。新出 口订单回落 4.3 个百分点至 44.7%，是 2023 年初以来最低值。从业人员、供应商配送时间和原材料库存较前月 变化较小，对制造业变动影响均不到 0.1 个百分点。参考去年 8 月 PMI公 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - In April, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 49%, down from 50.5% in March[7] - The non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.4%, compared to 50.8% in the previous month[7] - The new export orders index dropped significantly by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, indicating potential pressure on future exports[2] Group 2: Demand and Production Insights - The new orders index declined to 49.2%, while the production index remained near the threshold at 49.8%, suggesting weak demand but relatively high production levels[2] - Internal demand showed resilience, with the domestic orders index only down 2.3 percentage points to 49.9%[2] - Despite a decline in new export orders, foreign trade cargo volume increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 1.3%, attributed to prior "export rush" orders[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - Key sectors like high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw significant PMI declines of 0.8 and 2.4 percentage points, respectively, while the consumer goods sector's PMI fell only 0.6 percentage points to 49.4%[3] - The construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in real estate, although infrastructure construction accelerated[3] - The service sector PMI experienced a minor decline of 0.2 percentage points to 50.1%, supported by strong performance in productive service industries[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report highlights increased uncertainty in external demand due to tariff hikes, while emphasizing the need to monitor changes in domestic demand[4] - The central political bureau meeting in April stressed the importance of stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, indicating potential support for domestic demand in manufacturing[4]

屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 4月30日，国家统计局公布4月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值50.5%；非制造业PMI为50.4%、 前值50.8%。 核心观点：4月新出口订单已明显下滑，但内需如基建与消费品行业PMI仍维持韧性。 4月PMI整体与分项读数均有走弱，但相对来看新订单指数更弱，生产仍维持较高水平。 4月制造业PMI 边际下行1.5pct至49%；剔除供应商配货指数的PMI也回落1.5pct。结构上生产、新订单指数均有回落，边 际分别下行2.8、2.6pct。由于PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看， 新订单指数下行至49.2%，而生产指数仍在荣枯线附近（49.8%），反映本月需求偏弱，生产景气水平相 对较高。 需求内部呈现分化特征，其中新出口订单指数降幅较大，但内需订单更具韧性。 生产景气相对较高的情 况下，4月外贸货运量同比上行0.7pct至1.3%，主因前期订单在"抢出口"；而4月新出口订单指数大幅回落 4.3pct至44.7%，或意味着后续出口有较大压力。对比之下，内需订单指数本月下滑2.3pct，但绝对水平仍 在荣枯 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 三类行业继续保持扩张态势 ——4 月 PMI 数据点评 ❖ PMI 数据：制造业 PMI 回落至荣枯线以下 4 月制造业 PMI 为 49.0%，前值为 50.5%。具体分项来看：1）PMI 生产指数 为 49.8%，前值为 52.6%，回落 2.8 个百分点。2）PMI 新订单指数为 49.2%， 前值为 51.8%。PMI 新出口订单指数为 44.7%，前值为 49.0%。3） PMI 从业 人员指数为 47.9%，前值为 48.2%。4）供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%，前值为 50.3%。5）PMI 原材料库存指数为 47.0%，前值为 47.2%。 其他行业：1）建筑业：建筑业商务活动指数为 51.9%，比上月下降 1.5 个百 分点。2）服务业：服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.2 个百分点。 3）综合产出：4 月，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，比上月下降 1.2 个百分点， 仍高于临界点。 ❖ PMI 点评：三类行业继续保持扩张态势 （一）外部环境急剧变化影响下，部分指标出现下滑 4 月，受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基数叠加 ...