"我们认为，市场参与者对9月降息过于自信，因为他们误解了FOMC对劳动力市场状况的评估及其反应 机制，"巴克莱（Barclays）经济学家在报告中写道。 "在我们看来，主要问题不在于美联储是否需要放松政策以应对就业下降，而在于当前形势是否值得降 息——即风险平衡是否已从通胀转向充分就业目标。" 超过60%的受访者（110人中的68人）预测，今年将有1次或2次降息，与上月基本持平。但对于2025年 底联邦基金利率的水平，尚未达成共识。 在回答额外问题的经济学家中（样本少于通常规模），近80%的人表示，关税对通胀的影响将是暂时 的。 路透社调查显示，多数经济学家预测美联储将在9月进行今年首次降息，年底前可能再降一次。目前， 人们对这个全球最大经济体的健康状况日益担忧。 美国通胀再次回升，且预计将因特朗普的关税政策面临更多上行压力。另一方面，近几个月的招聘数据 被大幅下修，表明就业市场正在走弱。 特朗普长期以来一直斥责美联储主席鲍威尔不愿降息。在7月的会议上，联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）少数成员明确反对维持利率不变的立场，凸显了内部分歧。加之人们对美联储是否独立于政 治干预的疑虑持续，以及经济数据的可靠性下降， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, lithium carbonate is prone to rise and difficult to fall, but market sentiment may fluctuate, so positions should not be too heavy; in the long - term, the monthly output of lithium carbonate is still rising, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged [43]. - For alumina and Shanghai aluminum, in the short - term, they will oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to go long on dips; in the long - term, as it enters the downstream consumption peak season, pay attention to the improvement of downstream orders, and if consumption recovers, Shanghai aluminum has upward momentum [44][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约 (CU2509) rose from 78,490 to 79,060, a weekly increase of 0.73%; the spot price rose from 78,550 to 79,200, a weekly increase of 0.83% [2]. - Aluminum: The futures主力合约 (AL2510) rose from 20,650 to 20,750, a weekly increase of 0.48%; the spot price rose from 20,640 to 20,700, a weekly increase of 0.29% [2]. - Zinc: The futures主力合约 (ZN2510) rose from 22,520 to 22,530, a weekly increase of 0.04%; the spot price fell from 22,490 to 22,460, a weekly decrease of 0.13% [2]. - Lead: The futures主力合约 (PB2509) rose from 16,845 to 16,850, a weekly increase of 0.03%; the spot price fell from 16,725 to 16,700, a weekly decrease of 0.15% [2]. - Nickel: The futures主力合约 (NI2510) fell from 121,340 to 120,770, a weekly decrease of 0.47%; the spot price fell from 121,950 to 121,500, a weekly decrease of 0.37% [2]. - Alumina: The futures主力合约 (AO2601) rose from 3,201 to 3,205, a weekly increase of 0.12%; the spot price remained unchanged at 3,270 [2]. - Industrial silicon: The futures主力合约 (SI2511) rose from 8,710 to 8,805, a weekly increase of 1.09%; the spot price rose from 9,400 to 9,600, a weekly increase of 2.13% [2]. - Lithium carbonate: The futures主力合约 (LC2511) rose from 76,960 to 86,900, a weekly increase of 12.92%; the spot price rose from 71,500 to 82,000, a weekly increase of 14.69% [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约 (PS2511) rose from 50,790 to 52,740, a weekly increase of 3.84%; the spot price remained unchanged at 47,000 [2]. 3.2 Copper Inventory in Major Exchanges - As of August 15, the SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons (5.37%) from last week [13]. - As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a decrease of 5 tons (-0.03%) from last week [13]. - As of August 14, the COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons (1.37%) from last week [17]. 3.3 Copper Concentrate Spot TC As of August 14, the copper concentrate spot TC dropped to -$38/ton, a slight increase of $3/ton. The tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists, and the weekly processing fee increased slightly [20]. 3.4 Aluminum Raw Material Supply - The supply disruption of bauxite in Guinea has eased, but there is still room for fermentation. The previously suspended port in Guinea has resumed operations, but due to the rainy season and the unfinished government election, future supply disruptions may occur [21][23]. - The alumina supply side has seen an increase in production and a rapid increase in inventory. With the recovery of alumina prices, the production and willingness to start operations of alumina enterprises have increased simultaneously [24][25]. - The electrolytic aluminum supply side has maintained a high - level operation. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises have a strong willingness to start operations due to high profits, but the available primary aluminum in the market is limited. Recently, due to insufficient downstream demand, the profit of aluminum alloy ingots has declined, which may reduce the proportion of molten aluminum and increase the ingot - casting volume [28]. - As of August 15, the LME aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last week; the SHFE aluminum inventory was 120,700 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week; as of August 14, the COMEX aluminum inventory was 9,061 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from last week. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to accumulate this week [30][31]. 3.5 Demand Side - In June, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and 8.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.4% and 13.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.8% of total vehicle sales [34]. - From January to June, the new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The housing completion area was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8%. Among them, the residential completion area was 162.66 million square meters, a decrease of 15.5% [36]. - In June, the new photovoltaic installed capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 84.54%. As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the wind power installed capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7% [38]. 3.6 Lithium - related Market - The lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index soared this week. The latest quote was $940/ton, an increase of $163 (20.98%) from August 8, reaching an annual high [41]. - The core trading logic of the lithium carbonate market this week revolved around the shutdown expectation caused by the expiration of mining licenses of 8 mining areas. The main 2511 contract rose 12.91% this week. Although the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has shut down, the mining licenses of the other 7 mines will not expire until 2027. The new Mineral Resources Law has upgraded the associated - mineral recognition standard for lithium. The shutdown of the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has led to a monthly gap of about 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate. In the short - term, lithium carbonate is prone to rise and difficult to fall, but there is still uncertainty about the policy implementation of the other 7 mining areas [42]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, be cautious of market sentiment fluctuations and do not hold heavy positions; in the long - term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged [43]. - For alumina and Shanghai aluminum, in the short - term, they will oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to go long on dips; in the long - term, pay attention to the improvement of downstream orders during the consumption peak season [44][45].

从解雇劳工统计局局长，到要求高盛换经济学家，美国媒体评价说，特朗普处理"不合意"数据的方式无 非两种——要么改数据，要么换人。 新华财经北京8月15日电 美国高盛集团日前发布研究报告认为，美国消费者将承担美国关税政策成本中 越来越大的份额。美国总统特朗普针对这一观点发文表示，高盛集团经济学家"应该换人"，业余爱 好"打碟"的集团首席执行官应专注其副业。 《华尔街日报》报道说，从实际情况看，高盛经济学家团队的预测较为准确：近几个月来，美国就业增 长放缓至16年来最低水平；顽固的通货膨胀率不降反升；2025年美国经济增长乏力。 特朗普：高盛CEO要么换经济学家，要么去搞副业 高盛10日发布的最新报告认为，截至今年6月，美国消费者已承担22%的关税成本。随着越来越多企业 转嫁关税成本，预计到今年10月，美国消费者承担的比例将达到67%。 特朗普12日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文批评高盛首席执行官戴维·所罗门及其经济研究团队，称 其对关税的相关预测"错了"。"大多数情况下，承担这些关税（成本）的根本不是消费者，主要是公司 和政府，其中许多是外国（公司和政府）。" 特朗普在帖文中不点名批评牵头完成上述研究报告的高盛 ...

Group 1 - The impact of U.S. government tariff policies is increasingly affecting the daily lives of American citizens, with about half of Americans citing high grocery prices as a major source of stress [1] - The price effects of the tariff policies have become more apparent, with prices remaining relatively stable in the spring but beginning to rise in May and continuing to increase in June [1] - Prices for goods typically produced outside the U.S., such as appliances, furniture, and toys, have all seen increases [1] Group 2 - Rising prices are causing significant stress for American consumers, with individuals expressing frustration over constantly changing prices, particularly for fruits [1]

Group 1 - Mexico's e-commerce market has approximately 66 million buyers, with an average annual online spending of $580 per person, and is projected to have cross-border e-commerce account for over 40% of total e-commerce sales by 2024, positioning it as a growth hub in the Americas and potentially surpassing Brazil to become the largest e-commerce market in Latin America by 2026-2027 [1] - The North American market is pushing for Mexico's e-commerce potential, which remains largely untapped and is seen as a blue ocean opportunity outside the shadow of the United States [1] - The era of "warehousing and trading" is emerging, where overseas warehouses are used to penetrate target markets, with local inventory providing stability against market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Major platforms like Amazon, SHEIN, and Temu are optimistic about Mexico's market potential and are competing with local giant Mercado Libre, which is stimulating the e-commerce landscape and benefiting sellers through multi-channel operations [3] - As buyer expectations for logistics speed increase and tariff policies tighten, the traditional direct shipping model is losing its edge, prompting more sellers to establish local overseas warehouses to reduce delivery times, lower tariff risks, and improve return processing efficiency [3] - The overseas warehouse market in Mexico is expected to maintain double-digit growth over the next 3-5 years, with early entrants that offer comprehensive and compliant services gaining a significant advantage [3]

公告称，收入下降由于期内关税政策的不确定性，客户仍在评估其供应链决策以降低进口关税。此外， 集团位于越南的工厂于2025年第二季才开始生产及其产能尚未能完全开放承接订单，加上集团的机壳产 品在上半年需求持续疲软。亏损主要归因于销售收入及毛利下降，部分影响被其他收入及收益的增加和 经营成本的下降所抵销。 巨腾国际(03336)公布2025年中期业绩，收入约为27.15亿港元，同比下跌约9.5%。毛利约为7300万港 元，同比下跌约63.6%。公司股权持有人应占亏损约为7907.2万港元，同比增长15.1%;每股基本亏损约 为9.4港仙。 ...

Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, Hong Kong's real GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year, matching the previous quarter's growth of 3.0% [1] - Seasonally adjusted, the real GDP increased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.8% in the previous quarter [1] External Trade - Overall merchandise exports accelerated to a growth of 11.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, following an 8.4% increase in the previous quarter [2] - Exports to mainland China continued to show double-digit growth, while exports to ASEAN markets also increased [2] - Service output expanded by 7.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, supported by strong tourism and cross-border transport [2] Internal Economy - Private consumption expenditure rose by 1.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025, recovering from a decline of 1.2% in the previous quarter [3] - Government consumption expenditure increased by 2.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [3] - Overall investment expenditure rose by 2.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in machinery and equipment spending [3] Labor Market - The unemployment rate increased to 3.5% in Q2 2025, up from 3.2% in the previous quarter [4] - The median monthly employment income for full-time employees grew by 6.3% year-on-year [4] Asset Market - The Hong Kong stock market maintained an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 4.1% to 24,072 points by the end of Q2 2025 [5] - The residential property market showed signs of stabilization, with overall residential prices increasing by 1% [5] - The number of residential property transactions registered a significant rebound of 37% compared to the previous quarter [5] Inflation and Price Outlook - The basic composite consumer price index rose by 1.1% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slightly down from 1.2% in the previous quarter [6] - The overall inflation rate is projected to remain mild, with forecasts for basic and overall consumer price inflation at 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively [8] Future Economic Forecast - The economic outlook for the remainder of 2025 remains positive, with real GDP growth projected between 2% and 3% [7] - Factors such as ongoing employment income growth and a recovering property market are expected to support economic performance [7] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and interest rate changes may impact local investment sentiment [7]

Group 1 - The latest inflation data indicates that U.S. businesses are beginning to raise prices for goods and services among themselves, suggesting that they are trying to maintain profit margins in the face of tariffs, which may ultimately be passed on to consumers [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9%, significantly higher than June's zero growth and market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest increase since June 2022 [1] - The rise in wholesale prices for computers, home appliances, and furniture reflects the price pressures faced by businesses, indicating that inflation is becoming entrenched in the economy [1][2] Group 2 - The recent inflation reports provide a clearer picture of the inflation trajectory and serve as a key data source for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] - Economists suggest that the new data clearly indicates that price increases related to tariffs will continue to emerge, impacting consumers in the near future [2][3] - The burden of rising trade-related costs will determine the economic landscape under the Trump administration, as it remains unclear whether these costs will be borne more by overseas suppliers, U.S. businesses, or consumers [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the combination of geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the complexity of market games is high. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Although the market's macro - sentiment has slightly recovered, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5]. 3. Key Points by Content Freight Index - On August 11, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2235.48 points, down 2.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1082.14 points, down 4.2% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1257.71 points, down 8.37% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1042.91 points, down 6.42% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1489.68 points, down 61.06 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1961 USD/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 9.80% from the previous period [3]. - On August 8, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the European route was 1799.05 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 827.84 points, down 5.6% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The eurozone's July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, higher than the expected 49.7, and the previous value was 49.5; the service PMI was 51.2, higher than the expected 50.7, and the previous value was 50.5; the composite PMI was 51, higher than the expected 50.8, and the previous value was 50.6. The July SENTIX investor confidence index jumped to 4.5 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7; the service PMI was 55.2, higher than the expected 53; the composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [4]. Market Conditions - On August 14, the main contract 2510 closed at 1359.5, down 0.18%, with a trading volume of 3.21 million lots and an open interest of 56,700 lots, a decrease of 4042 lots from the previous day [5]. - The market sentiment has slightly recovered, but due to the stabilization of market freight rates, the multi - empty game is intense, and the market is in a wide - range shock. After the close, except for the main contract, other contracts have increased [5]. Trade Policy - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has not made substantial progress, and the tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased [5]. Geopolitical Situation - On August 13, Hamas proposed a cease - fire request to Egypt, including asking Israel to agree in writing to permanently end the war and abandon any plan to occupy Gaza and provide international guarantees. Hamas negotiation representatives arrived in Egypt this week to restart the cease - fire and hostage release negotiations [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - preference investors, they can try to go long lightly around 1300 on the 2510 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation instability, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend [5]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a pattern of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon on Thursday, with the main contracts of stock index futures rising and falling differently. The market is influenced by domestic and overseas news and capital flows. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at an appropriate time and maintain a moderately bullish attitude [2][3][6]. - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The bond market is under pressure from the equity market, but considering financial and inflation data, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [7][9]. - The prices of precious metals rose first and then fell. The market is affected by factors such as the US PPI data and the attitude of the Federal Reserve towards interest rate cuts. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and hold long positions in silver or construct a bullish spread strategy using silver put options [10][12][13]. - The main contract of container shipping futures fluctuated. Due to the high growth rate of container capacity and weak European demand, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [14][15]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; alumina is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term; aluminum is expected to be under pressure at high levels; zinc and tin are expected to fluctuate; nickel and stainless steel are expected to adjust within a range; lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in a bullish range [19][21][23]. - The prices of black metals also showed different trends. Steel prices are supported by limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions; iron ore prices are expected to follow the trend of steel prices, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see; coking coal and coke prices have seen their futures prices peak and fall back, and it is recommended to take profit on speculative positions and wait and see [41][44][46]. - For agricultural products, the long - term outlook for meal products is positive, but short - term profit - taking is recommended; the price of live pigs is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of the slaughter volume; the upward movement of corn prices is limited, and attention should be paid to short opportunities; the price of sugar is expected to be bearish [53][55][56]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the A - share market rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures rose and fell differently, and most of the basis was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the State Council issued a decision to modify the regulations on the entry and exit of foreigners. Overseas, the US Treasury Secretary made statements on issues such as drug tariffs, the sale of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac equity, and interest rate cuts [3][4]. - **Capital Flow**: On August 14, the trading volume of the A - share market reached 2.28 trillion. The central bank conducted 1287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan on the same day [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell put options on MO2509 at an appropriate time and maintain a moderately bullish attitude [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and long - term bonds performed weaker [7]. - **Capital Flow**: The central bank conducted 1287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan on August 14. It is expected to conduct 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month reverse repurchase operations on August 15 to maintain capital stability [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: In late July, China's M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans, deposits, and social financing scale in the first seven months was significant [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing. The 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75% [9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The US PPI in July rebounded significantly year - on - year, and the first - time unemployment claims in the week of August 9 were slightly lower than expected. The prices of precious metals rose first and then fell. The international gold price fell 0.63%, and the international silver price fell 1.32% [10][12]. - **Future Outlook**: Although the market sentiment has been affected by trade agreements, the US economic data in July has deteriorated, and there is still a demand for hedging. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and hold long positions in silver or construct a bullish spread strategy using silver put options [12][13]. - **Capital Flow**: The weak US economy stimulates the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the allocation funds have a high interest in precious metals. The positions of gold and silver ETFs are expected to increase [13]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures (EC) - **Spot Quotations**: As of August 15, the spot quotations of major shipping companies were provided [14]. - **Container Shipping Index**: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index decreased. As of August 8, the SCFI composite index also decreased [14]. - **Fundamentals**: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI in July was 50.9, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [14]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [15]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and the average premium increased. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [16]. - **Macro**: The US CPI in July increased moderately, and the market expected the probability of an interest rate cut in September to increase. Trump signed an extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days [16][19]. - **Supply**: The TC of copper concentrate increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decrease slightly in August [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased and increased respectively. The domestic demand was resilient, but it was under marginal pressure in Q3 [18]. - **Inventory**: COMEX and LME inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78000 - 79500 [19]. Alumina - **Spot**: On August 14, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [20]. - **Inventory**: On August 14, the port inventory decreased, and the registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [20]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term, with the main contract operating in the range of 3000 - 3400 [21]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the average premium increased [22]. - **Supply**: In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [22]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries increased slightly [22]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory also increased [23]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On August 14, the spot prices of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [24]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and it is expected to remain stable in August [24]. - **Demand**: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the market trading activity decreased [24]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and the inventories in some areas were close to full [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract referring to 19400 - 20400 [25]. Zinc - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [25][26]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate remained unchanged. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On August 14, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream procurement increased slightly [29]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports in June decreased. The actual tin ore output in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter [29][30]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased in June. The LME inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of refined nickel increased, and the monthly production is expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory was high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory decreased [32]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 120000 - 126000 [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was stable, the price of nickel iron increased, and the price of ferrochrome was expected to be stable [34]. - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in August increased slightly [35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased [35]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, with the main contract referring to 13000 - 13500 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [37]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it is expected to increase in August. The supply is relatively sufficient, but the growth rate has slowed down [38]. - **Demand**: The demand is optimistic, and the demand in August is expected to increase [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly last week, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream and other links replenishing inventory [39]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and lightly go long at low prices. The price is expected to fluctuate in a bullish range around 85,000 [40]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel price decreased, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: From January to July, the iron element production increased. In August, the production increased compared with July, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation from August to September [42]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the apparent demand for five major steel products was basically the same year - on - year. The domestic demand decreased, and the foreign demand increased. Currently, the apparent demand has decreased [42]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory increased significantly, mainly in the hands of traders [43]. - **View**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [45]. - **Futures**: The prices of iron ore futures decreased [45]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [45]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly [45]. - **Supply**: This week, the global iron ore shipment and arrival volume decreased [46]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average dredging volume increased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price peaked and fell back, and the price of some coal varieties in the spot auction loosened [47]. - **Supply**: The coal mine's operating rate decreased, and the output decreased slightly [47][48]. - **Demand**: The coking plant's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream demand for iron water was high but may decrease in August [48]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, and the demand for downstream replenishment weakened [48]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [49][50]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price peaked and fell back, and the sixth - round price increase of coke was implemented. There is still an expectation of a seventh - round price increase [51][52]. - **Profit**: The coke enterprise's profit improved [51]. - **Supply**: The coking plant's operating rate increased due to the price increase [52]. - **Demand**: The demand for iron water was high but may decrease in August [52]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, and the downstream still had a demand for replenishment [52]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore [52]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was 100 tons [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The US new - crop soybean export sales were higher than expected, and Brazil's soybean production, crushing volume, and export volume were all revised upwards [54]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA monthly report supported the US soybean price, and the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed supported the rapeseed meal price. However, short - term profit - taking occurred, and it is recommended to close the position and wait and see. The overall trend is upward [55]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price fluctuated strongly. The profit of different breeding models changed, and the average slaughter weight increased [56][57]. - **Market Outlook**: The current supply and demand are weak. The group's slaughter volume is expected to increase in August, and the later pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to blindly short the far - month 01 contract, and attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price in some