双焦情绪支撑转弱，后市能否继续看多？ 金十期货特约中信期货点评：今日双焦齐跌，焦煤多个合约达到8%跌停线。在宏观靴子落地后，由资 金炒作政策预期的市场情绪有所转弱，难以支撑起前期连续涨停的盘面价格。不过在宏观大方向不变的 基础上，不排除后续会议或政策再度形成利好的可能。从供需来看，当前双焦较为健康的基本面短期仍 能维持，短期来看基本面对盘面仍有支撑，盘面大幅下行可能较小。综合来看，前期被政策预期裹挟的 积极情绪连续大幅拉涨盘面，在预期兑现后，失去了部分情绪支撑的双焦价格回调至合理区间。展望后 市，在当前双焦颇有韧性的基本面下，预计短期市场在情绪扰动下大幅波动仍将持续，需重点关注后续 宏观政策，注意控制风险。 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is set to hold a press conference on August 1 to discuss the current economic situation and work plans, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [1]. Economic Performance Summary - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% when calculated at constant prices [4]. - By industry, the value added in the primary sector was 3,117.2 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; the secondary sector's value added was 23,905.0 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.3%; and the tertiary sector's value added was 39,031.4 billion yuan, increasing by 5.5% [4]. - Quarterly analysis shows that GDP growth was 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [4]. Policy Implications - The NDRC emphasizes that the macroeconomic policies have been effective, leading to a stable and positive economic development trend, showcasing resilience and vitality [4]. - However, it also highlights the presence of external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand, indicating that the foundation for economic recovery needs further strengthening [4]. - The next steps involve adhering to Xi Jinping's thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics, maintaining a stable yet progressive work tone, and accelerating the establishment of a new development pattern to enhance domestic circulation and ensure high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [4].

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 31 年 月 日 宏观政策坚持稳中求进的基调，整体保持定力，但也未排除因应环境变化的增 量政策。本次会议在宏观政策上继续强调"稳"，我们认为下半年宏观政策取 向可能并非强刺激，但会议提出""增强活性预见性预"""时加力力"指向向 果情况恶化，可能会有进一步积极的动作。具体来看，会议提出"要落实落细 更力积极的财政政策和时度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应"，表述从此 前"用足用好"改为"落实落细"，可能向向政策更侧重"提质"。虽然没有直 接提到降准降息，但提到"促进社会综合融资成本下行"，我们认为下半年引 导 LPR 小幅下降仍可期待。 房地产相关表述有所精简，并不代表房地产不重要，未来仍有待提升政策支持 力度。相较 2024 年数次政治局会议，本次会议关于房地产相关表述有所精简， 省略了 4 月会议诸 稳地产"房地产收储等相关表述。 但我们认为这并不代 表房地产不重要。2025 年以来，新房销售延续负增，量能处于近年最低水平， 不论是量"价均难言已实现稳地产的目标。低迷的市场持续影响房企拿地"开 工"施工等向标，对房地产开发投资乃至于经济 ...

7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。同 时，会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 在会议中，"持续发力""适时加力""治理企业无序竞争""释放内需潜力""化解重点领域风险"等表述引发 市场关注。中国下半年经济如何前行？哪些重点领域值得关注？ 八家券商先后发表观点对此作出深入 解读。 1 宏观政策：持续发力、适时加力 会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保 持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振 消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。 中信建投认为，会议对今年以来积极政策的成效给予充分肯定，要求继续落实落细既定政策，继续释放 政策效应，并未对增量政策进行安排。原因在于上半年我国GDP增长5.3%，远高于政府预期目标，且 年内项目类专项债发行提速、结构性货币政策工具加力投放均还有空间，因此没有必要安排增量政策。 中信建投同时强调，这并不意味着下半年必然不会有增量政策 ...

会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保 持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振 消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏观政策取向一致性。 "宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"，并且强调，"落实落细宏观政策各项措施"。中共中央政治局召开会 议传递了怎么样的信号？ （原标题：如何理解"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"？） 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 会议强调，做好下半年经济工作，要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，坚持稳中求进 工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活 性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国际双循环，努力完成全年经济社会 发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 从货币政策来看，王运金认为，下半年货币政策将保持适度宽松基调，加大调控强度，通过逆回购、 M ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, lacking price drivers on its own and mainly following the news. The coking coal and coke market has intense trading, and the iron ore market is expected to operate at a high level. The ferroalloy market is expected to be in a high - level shock state [4][10][16] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - On July 30, mainstream coking enterprises in Hebei and Shanxi planned to raise coke prices, with increases of 50 yuan/ton for tamping wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamping dry - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on July 31. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Spot prices of steel products in Shanghai and Beijing showed increases [3] Logical Analysis - The black - metal sector showed a weak and volatile trend in the night session yesterday. Construction steel sales on the 30th were 82,000 tons. This week, building materials production decreased while hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar inventories decreased while hot - rolled coil inventories increased. Steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month. Although steel exports remained high recently, July is the off - season for manufacturing demand, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils declined. With the market reaching its peak, the speculative demand for building materials also decreased. The steel fundamentals have not reached their peak, lacking price drivers on their own. In the short term, it still follows the news, and market volatility has increased. After the Politburo meeting, there were no more - than - expected policies, and the market was in a fierce long - short game. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see as steel prices maintain a high - level volatile trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is advisable to enter long - position arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - With the rebound of the futures market, some term - arbitrage demands entered the market again. Affected by heavy rain in the north, railway transportation capacity was severely restricted, and the arrival of materials at some steel mills was difficult. Coking enterprises raised prices for the fifth time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which took effect on the 31st. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Coke and coking - coal warehouse - receipt prices were provided [9] Logical Analysis - The current market trading is intense, and there is no clear main - line logic, with large market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, the inspection of over - production has not significantly affected coal - mine production but has affected the resumption progress to some extent. The number of Mongolian - coal customs - clearance vehicles has returned to a medium - high level, and port inventories have stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the inventory locked in the futures - spot market and the speculative inventory in the spot market show signs of being sold, as well as the progress and intensity of coal - mine over - production inspections. The market is expected to be in a fierce trading state at the current level, with large price fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see due to intense trading and large market fluctuations [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Futures - spot: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Iron Ore Related Information - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Spot prices of iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased, and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 24 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron - ore prices fluctuated narrowly in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines entered the seasonal off - season, and it was difficult to see a significant increase. Recently, the shipments of non - mainstream mines were at a high level, but the overall impact on supply pressure was not large. On the demand side, the hot - metal production last week remained at a high level. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed down, it was expected to maintain its resilience. Overall, the previous increase in iron - ore prices was affected by multiple factors. The current valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and the market sentiment has fluctuated. Iron - ore prices are expected to operate at a high level [15][16] Trading Strategies - Not clearly stated other than the note that the views are for reference only [17] Ferroalloy Related Information - Comilog's September 2025 manganese - ore shipment price to China for Gabon lumps was 4.27 US dollars/ton - degree, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/ton - degree. The Politburo meeting emphasized deepening reforms, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition [18] Logical Analysis - On the 30th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was stable with a slight upward trend, and the price in some regions increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. On the supply side, production increased steadily as prices rose. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, and production remained at a high level, which supported the demand for ferrosilicon. After the release of the Politburo meeting communiqué, the anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore was stable with a slight upward trend on the 30th. On the supply side, production also increased slightly. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, which supported raw - material demand. On the cost side, overseas mines continued to slightly increase their quotes, which boosted the price of manganese - silicon. The anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [19] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to operate at a high level, and it is recommended that the anti - involution trading sentiment cool down, with the market expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [20][22] - Arbitrage: Close the long - ferrosilicon and short - manganese - silicon position and enter long - position futures - spot arbitrage when the basis is low [22] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 31, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,946, down 4.44%. The Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,820, down 80 yuan/ton. With no obvious incremental policy expectations and the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. The manufacturers' operating rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the inventory is moderately high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 210,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal output is at a high level. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit is 100 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement price has rebounded this month. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On July 31, the SF2509 contract closed at 5,696, down 6.62%. The Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,710, down 12 yuan/ton. After several macro - events, the market sentiment weakened. The operating rate is at a low level, the Ningxia semi - coke price on the cost side has dropped, and the steel demand expectation is still weak. The ferroalloy production profit is negative, with the Inner Mongolia spot profit at 230 yuan/ton and the Ningxia spot profit at 430 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,946元/吨，环比下降170元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,696元/吨，环比下降312元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为603,752手，环比下降47,460手；SF期货合约持仓量为406,294手，环比下降32,084手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 96,908手，环比增加23,496手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 40,380手，环比增加7,426手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为82元/吨，环比下降10元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为146元/吨，环比增加14元 [2]. - SM仓单为78,527张，环比下降209张；SF仓单为22,051张，环比增加48张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,820元/吨，环比下降80元；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,760元/吨，环比下降110元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,850元/吨，环比下降100元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,580元/吨，环比下降130元 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,900元/吨，环比下降50元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,710元/吨，环比下降120元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,688元/吨，环比增加78元；SF主力合约基差为14元/吨，环比增加192元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 126元/吨，环比增加90元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为37元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,050元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为620元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为449.5万吨，环比增加21万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为41.58%，环比增加1.05个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.33%，环比增加0.88个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为186,480吨，环比增加3,640吨；硅铁供应为102,300吨，环比增加2,300吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为205,000吨，环比下降11,300吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.21万吨，环比下降0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为14.24天，环比下降1.25天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为14.25天，环比下降1.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为123,670吨，环比增加289吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20,065.7吨，环比增加52吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.48%，环比无变化；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.78%，环比下降0.14个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8,318.4万吨，环比下降336.1万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定10月召开二十届四中全会，强调做好下半年经济工作的相关政策 [2]. - 美国将对韩国征收15%关税，对巴西加征40%关税使总关税额达50%，对印度商品征收25%关税 [2]. - 国际能源署称全球电力需求将强劲增长，2025年预计增长3.3%，2026年增长3.7% [2]. - 加拿大央行连续第三次维持关键政策利率在2.75%不变，全球贸易战严重升级风险减弱 [2]. - 美联储维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.50%不变，这是连续第五次维持利率不变 [2].

Market Overview - The bond market continued its warm trend on July 31, with the release of the July official PMI data not exerting pressure on the performance of bonds, leading to an overall increase in government bond futures and a general decline in interbank bond yields by approximately 2 basis points [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 47.8 billion yuan in the open market, while the overall funding situation remained stable, with a slight increase in overnight repurchase rates at the month-end [1][5] Bond Futures and Yields - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.57% to 119.120, the 10-year main contract up by 0.17% to 108.485, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 105.725 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds saw a slight decrease, with the 10-year government bond yield down nearly 2 basis points, reported at 1.786% for "25国开10" and 1.703% for "25附息国债11" [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose on July 30, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7.38 basis points to 3.941% and the 10-year yield rising by 4.57 basis points to 4.368% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 0.5 basis points to 3.357%, while the 10-year German bond yield decreased by 0.3 basis points to 2.703% [3] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year terms had winning yields of 1.3677%, 1.6187%, and 1.7341%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 4.15, 4.49, and 3.52 [4] Funding Conditions - The People's Bank of China announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 283.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [5] - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly declined, with the overnight rate increasing by 7.5 basis points to 1.392% [5] Economic Indicators - The official non-manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 50.1, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, also down by 0.4 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [6] - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [6] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the political bureau meeting's cautious stance on real estate and anti-involution reflects a long-term planning focus rather than short-term stimulus [7] - China Galaxy Securities indicated limited incremental changes from the political bureau meeting, suggesting a downward trend in bond yields, while monitoring risk preferences and government bond supply [7] - CICC highlighted the potential for fiscal policy adjustments in the fourth quarter, with a positive outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year [7]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, exceeding the 5% target, driven by effective domestic demand policies and optimized export structures[3] - The meeting acknowledged the current economic operation as stable with progress, while also recognizing ongoing risks and challenges[4] Policy Direction - The government will maintain a "steady progress" approach, emphasizing stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[4] - Fiscal policy will continue to be "more proactive," with a focus on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency[4] - Monetary policy will emphasize "appropriate easing," ensuring ample liquidity and supporting sectors like technology innovation and small enterprises[4] Consumption and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption and expanding effective investment, particularly in service consumption and high-quality infrastructure projects[5] - Policies will be directed towards enhancing service consumption and stimulating private investment, with a focus on quality and effectiveness[5] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is transitioning from rapid growth to stable development, with a focus on improving existing stock rather than expanding new supply[8] - The government aims to support urban renewal and the transformation of old neighborhoods, with a target of 1 million units for renovation projects[9][10] Debt Management - There is a commitment to actively and prudently manage local government debt risks, with strict controls on new hidden debts and a focus on clearing local financing platforms[5] - The meeting emphasized the need for effective measures to mitigate local government debt pressures while ensuring orderly progress[5] Capital Market Stability - The government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, reinforcing the positive momentum observed in recent market performance[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. The technical graph of logs is in the ascending flag consolidation stage with weakening fluctuations, and funds are continuously withdrawing. The market is oscillating around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The impact of the earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula is minimal, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for logs is 820 - 860. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 67.4% [2]. 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2509) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 850 - 875 [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy log futures (lg2509) at present, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 810 - 820 [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - policy's short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market will return to fundamental dominance. There is an expectation gap in the policy. The technical graph is in the ascending flag consolidation stage, with weakening fluctuations and continuous capital withdrawal. The market oscillates around the valuation, and the recent decline has repaired the over - valued situation, with the current valuation at a neutral level. The earthquake in the Kamchatka Peninsula has little impact, and the spot price is stable. The strategy is to sell lg2509 - p - 800 on dips [3]. 3.4 Positive Factors - Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices [4]. 3.5 Negative Factors - **Spot and Basis**: The document provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis data for different specifications of logs at various ports on July 31, 2025. The basis (after conversion) is calculated as the spot price after a 108% increase in length - the main contract's disk price ± the premium or discount [5][8]. - Other negative factors include the "off - peak season" phenomenon and the continuous increase in foreign shipments [7]. 3.6 Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous period but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous period and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Demand**: As of July 25, 2025, the daily average log port outbound volume was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous period and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous period and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous period and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous period. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous period [9]. - **Main Spot Prices**: The spot prices of several specifications of logs on July 31, 2025, remained unchanged from the previous day, with varying year - on - year decreases [9]. - **External Market Quotations**: The CFR on August 1, 2025, was 114 US dollars/JASm³, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9].