黑色产业日报 周一铁矿盘面震荡运行，特朗普放言可能降低对华关税，国际贸易紧张 情绪有所缓和。铁水产量出现超预期增长，引发铁水见顶回落预期，同 时叠加后续出口持续性担忧。供给方面，全球发运与上周基本持平，其 中澳洲发运有所回升，巴西发运下降。到疏港量均有回落，部分压港释 放，港口库存有所回升。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，整体进口矿日耗 有所增加。本周钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极性提 高。上周末出现粗钢限产传闻，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，暂以不 实小作文看待。即便属实，五千万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难 以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面铁矿属于供需双强阶段，但即将进入传 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3240 元/吨，较上周 五上涨 50 元/吨，05 合约基差 180（+15）。宏观层面，4 月 22 日， 特朗普表示将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税，不过国内强调目前双 方并未开展任何经贸谈判，另外，4 月 25 日政治局会议召开，没有强刺 激信号；产业层面，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需下滑、产量持稳，去库速 度仍然较快，通常而言， ...

截至2025年4月29日 09:59，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.42%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报112.82元。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手6.02%，成交 3.96亿元。拉长时间看，截至4月28日，30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交29.93亿元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF博时最新融资买入额达6375.64万元，最新融资余额达7671.97万元。 截至4月28日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨15.55%，指数债券型基金排名3/376，居于前0.80%。从收益能力看，截至2025年4月28日，30年国债ETF博时 自成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为8/4，上涨月份平均收益率为1.90%，月盈利百分比为 66.67%，月盈利概率为72.58%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至2025年4月28日，30年国债ETF博时成立以来超越基准年化收益为0.13%。 回撤方面，截至2025年4月28日，30年国债ETF博时成立以来最大回撤6.89%，相对基准回撤1.28%。 费率方面，30年国 ...

Group 1 - The central political bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for a more proactive macroeconomic policy, focusing on utilizing more aggressive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of supporting foreign trade enterprises affected by tariffs, suggesting an increase in the unemployment insurance fund's stability return ratio for these companies [1][3] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding domestic demand and exploring new external markets, indicating a strategic shift to enhance the resilience of foreign trade enterprises amidst external shocks [1][3] Group 2 - The anticipated new round of incremental policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, is expected to be implemented in the second quarter [2] - The meeting's focus on external shocks, particularly the tariff situation, suggests that the challenges may persist longer than expected, requiring long-term preparations from businesses [2] - The first quarter saw China's goods trade imports and exports reach 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with exports growing by 6.9%, demonstrating the resilience of China's foreign trade despite external pressures [3]

Market Performance - The A-share index rose by 1.15% during the week of April 21-25, with the CSI 1000, ChiNext Index, and Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.85%, 1.74%, and 1.38% respectively, outperforming the overall A-share index [1] - Small-cap stocks showed relative strength, with the CSI 1000's performance of 1.85% surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index's increase of 0.38% [1] - The cyclical and growth styles outperformed the overall A-share index, with increases of 2.44% and 1.41% respectively, while stable, consumer, and financial styles saw smaller gains of 0.73%, 0.24%, and 0.21% [1] Industry Insights - The automotive, beauty care, and basic chemical industries led the gains among primary industries, with increases of 4.87%, 3.80%, and 2.71% respectively [1] - Conversely, the food and beverage, real estate, and coal industries experienced declines [1] Policy Developments - Recent meetings emphasized the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies, including potential interest rate cuts and maintaining ample liquidity to support the real economy [2] - The World Bank highlighted China's commitment to adopting more proactive macro policies to achieve annual growth targets amid complex external conditions [2] Consumer Sector - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to optimize the departure tax refund policy to boost inbound consumption, which currently accounts for about 0.5% of China's GDP, compared to 1%-3% in major countries [3] - The consumer sector has shown a rotation upward since mid-April, with retail (+6.35%), real estate (+3.20%), beauty care (+1.97%), and food and beverage (+1.00%) sectors leading the gains [3] Future Outlook - The smart consumption sector is expected to see significant growth driven by policy support and demographic changes, with a shift from optional to essential consumption [4] - Analysts suggest focusing on three key areas for investment: dividend stocks with attractive valuations, technology sectors benefiting from policy support, and large consumer sectors supported by domestic demand strategies [4]

国内CPI、PPI、PMI走势及房地产数据 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2019-07 2019-11 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 2021-07 2021-11 2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 中国CPI（%） CPI:当月同比 CPI:环比 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2019-07 2019-11 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 2021-07 2021-11 2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 中国PPI（%） PPI:当月同比（左轴） PPI:环比（右轴） 35 40 45 50 55 制造业PMI 生产 新订单 原材料库存 从业人员 供应商配送时间 新出口订单 进口 采购量 主要原材料购进价格 出厂价格 产成品库存 在手 ...

兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.28 重点策略推荐及操作建议： 商品期货方面：玻璃空头格局明确，工业硅承压，沪镍成本支撑坚挺。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： | 1.地产政策持稳，玻璃厂旺季累库，玻璃 FG509 前空持有； | | --- | | 2.库存继续累积，工业硅 SI2506-C-9000 卖看涨期权持有； | | 3.矿端紧张延续，沪镍卖出看跌期权 NI2506P120000 头寸持有。 | 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 政策预期降温，震荡格局延续 上周 A 股延续横盘整理，科技与红利主题反复轮动，沪深两市 | | | | | | 成交额维持在 1.2 万亿元左右。从行业来看，上周综合金融、汽车、 | | | | | | 电力及新能源板块涨幅居前，食品饮料、消费者服务、房地产跌幅 | | | | | | 居前。 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 期货市场随现货指数震荡调整，上周五 IF、IH、IC 和 IM 涨跌 | | 张舒绮 | 联 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coke: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintained a low - level volatile operation. However, current macro - level disturbances are still intense. There were repeated Sino - US trade frictions in April, and there is strong uncertainty about the future of the tariff dispute. China's domestic demand boost policies are imminent. The Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive macro - policies, make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Overall, the medium - and long - term logic of coke remains unchanged. The cost - side drag caused by the loose supply of coking coal and concerns about terminal demand compress the rebound space of coke futures. But short - term macro - level disturbances and marginal improvements in coke's own fundamentals provide some support for prices. It is expected that the main coke contract will maintain a low - level volatile operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to domestic policy developments [5][34]. - Coking coal: From March to April, there were no major production accidents in Shanxi, and the coal mine safety supervision environment in the region was relatively stable, with output remaining at a high level. In March, the raw coal output in Shanxi increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and since April, the coal output in Shanxi has continued to operate at a high level, and it is expected to record a positive year - on - year growth. Meanwhile, the import volume of Mongolian coal in April improved significantly compared with March. At present, although the price of coking coal has been falling continuously, the situation of loose supply has not been reversed, and the overall fundamentals are still bearish. In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,035 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1,008 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamental pressure on coking coal still exists, but recent macro - level disturbances are intense, and the market's long - short game has intensified. The main coking coal contract temporarily maintains a low - level volatile operation. Attention should be paid to whether there will be domestic demand boost policies in the future [6][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - The National Energy Administration reported that in the first quarter, the national energy supply was sufficient, and the overall supply - demand situation was loose. Energy production increased steadily, and the growth rate of coal, oil, gas, and electricity production accelerated in March. In the first quarter, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%; in March, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.6% year - on - year, with a daily output of more than 14 million tons. The crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter was 54.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and in March, it increased by 3.5% year - on - year. The natural gas output of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter was 66 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, and in March, it increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide in the first quarter reached 3.43 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. In March, the growth rate of power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.1 percentage points higher than that from January to February [8]. - On April 28, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,300 yuan/ton, including tax in cash [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,440 | 0.00% | 3.60% | - 14.79% | - 25.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,350 | 0.75% | - 0.74% | - 16.67% | - 33.50% | | Coking coal (Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port) | 1,035 | 0.00% | - 4.17% | - 12.29% | - 35.31% | | Coking coal (Australian - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,300 | - 0.76% | - 5.11% | - 12.75% | - 41.96% | | Coking coal (Shanxi - produced at Jingtang Port) | 1,400 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 8.50% | - 34.88% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,562.0 | - 1.20 | 1,587.0 | 1,553.5 | 23,887 | - 2,703 | 36,957 | 145 | | Coking coal | | 947.0 | - 1.66 | 968.0 | 943.5 | 387,146 | - 63,343 | 339,613 | 2,996 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including 230 independent coking plants' coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants' coke inventory, port coke total inventory, coke total inventory, mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal inventory, and other relevant production and consumption - related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production situation, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [14][21][28] Market Outlook - Coke: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintains a low - level volatile operation. Due to intense macro - level disturbances and the unchanged medium - and long - term logic, it is expected to maintain a low - level volatile operation in the near future, and attention should be paid to domestic policy developments [34] - Coking coal: From March to April, the coal output in Shanxi remained high, and the import volume of Mongolian coal improved in April. The supply is still loose, and the fundamentals are bearish. The main contract temporarily maintains a low - level volatile operation, and attention should be paid to whether there will be domestic demand boost policies [35]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.59% on April 25[4] - Main capital inflows were noted in the power, software development, and communication equipment sectors, with net inflows of 64.08 billion CNY for Shanghai and 95.24 billion CNY for Shenzhen[5] Policy and Economic Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including potential interest rate cuts and increased fiscal measures to support the economy[6] - China's GDP growth rate for Q1 was reported at 5.4%, indicating a stable economic recovery despite global uncertainties[9] Sector Performance - The power, real estate, home appliance, textile, and internet sectors showed significant gains, while traditional energy sectors like precious metals and chemicals experienced declines[2] - A notable 33.62% year-on-year increase in nationwide rail-sea transport of goods was reported, highlighting growth in logistics[12] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on defensive sectors and investment opportunities mentioned in the recent political bureau meeting, while long-term investments should align with state-supported industries[2] - Institutional research activity surged to 31,000 instances in one month, reflecting a 49% increase, indicating a strong focus on performance-driven sectors[15]

央行官员表示，将按照中央政治局会议精神，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足适度宽松的 货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息。 人社部官员表示，将加快推出增量政策，对企业加大扩岗支持，对个人加大就业补贴支持，对受关税影 响较大的企业提高失业保险稳岗返还比例等。 商务部官员表示，将聚焦广大企业需求，及时解决困难问题，以钉钉子精神抓好已经出台的稳外贸政策 落地见效。 每经记者 郑步春 每经编辑 彭水萍 周一A股表现稍弱，各大股指普跌，全市场超4100个股下跌。截至收盘，上证综指跌0.2%至3288.41 点；深综指跌0.93%，创业板综指跌1.01%，科创50指数跌0.17%，北证50指数跌1.78%。全A总成交额 为10768亿元，较上周五的11370亿元略有萎缩。 银行、钢铁、电力等红利股表现较好，PEEK材料、游戏、珠宝首饰、培育钻石等板块表现也相对较 好。旅游酒店、食品饮料、乳业等消费类个股表现较弱，房地产板块也普跌。 周一上午国新办举行新闻发布会，发改委官员表示，更好发挥内需主动力作用，具体思路和方法也非常 明确，就是增加中低收入群体收入、大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，做强国内 ...

216 | 中共中央政治局会议:要加紧实施 习近平:做好 更加积极有为的宏观政策 Financial Weekly 4月28日 每周金融评论 00 Financial Weekly 每周金融评论 | 目录 CONTENTS 热点聚焦 FOCUS ◎ 习近平:做好科技金融文章 MEETINGS ◎ 中共中央政治局会议:要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策 POLICES ◎ 中国人民银行等联合印发《上海国际金融中心进一步 提升跨境金融服务便利化行动方案》 EVENTS ◎ 商务部等六部门: 下调离境退税起退点 ■要数字 DATA ◎ 由降转增! 一季度规模以上下业个业利润同比增长0.8% 刻 深 展 想 前 盯警 Ani a H2 3 清华金融评论 ■ 专注于经济金融政策解读与建言的智库型全媒体平台 5 元/篇 36 电子刊 纸质刊 热点聚 焦 习近平：做好科技金融文章 中共中央政治局4月25日下午就加强人工智能发展和监管进行第二十次集体学习。中共中央总书记习近平在主持学习时强调，面 对新一代人工智能技术快速演进的新形势，要充分发挥新型举国体制优势，坚持自立自强，突出应用导向，推动我国人工智能朝 着有益、安全、公平 ...