虽然市场对最新一轮关税威胁反应平淡，但投资者切不可掉以轻心。美银和摩根大通均发出警告，美国面临的滞胀风险正在上升，这可能比短期关税波动 更具威胁性。 美国政府此前宣布新一轮关税措施。据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发布致墨西哥和欧盟的信件，宣 布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自墨西哥和欧盟的输美产品征收30%的关税。而根据之前信息，日本和韩国面临25%的关税税率，巴西则面临高达50% 的惩罚性关税。 据追风交易台信息，美银分析师在7月11日的报告中表示，如果这些威胁全面落实，美国有效关税税率将从目前的13.4%升至14.9%，而在"无协议"情景 下更可能达到18-20%的水平。 分析师警告，新关税措辞增加了滞胀的风险，即更高的通货膨胀和更低的经济活动，因为不确定性增加，且在关税提高和供应链中断共同导致的供应冲击 对通货膨胀预期影响的推动下，通胀预期上升。 在这种情况下，由于担心关税对通胀的滞后影响，美联储不太可能边际降息。企业为避免失去市场份额，会平稳地将成本转嫁到价格上。从时间上延 续"先升级再降级"的策略，而这只会增加美联储观望的可能。 下半年不确定性将持 ...

Company and Industry Insights - The Chinese AI application market shows strong demand from state-owned enterprises, while small and medium-sized enterprises are adopting subscription models, but consumer monetization remains slow [14] - Wahaha's chairwoman, Zong Fuli, is being sued over asset disputes by three individuals claiming to be her half-siblings, raising concerns about the company's governance and potential impacts on its operations [14] - Meituan reported a record 150 million orders over the weekend, with an average delivery time of 34 minutes, indicating a significant increase in rider income and a competitive landscape in the food delivery sector [11] - The organic silicon market is expected to benefit from Dow's announcement to close its UK plant, which will reduce European capacity by nearly one-third, potentially filling the supply gap with domestic exports [20] - The rare earth sector is poised for improvement as MP Materials is set to receive substantial investment from the U.S. Department of Defense, which may lead to price increases for rare earth magnets [20] - The construction sector is seen as having a recovery potential due to its financial-like business model, with current market pessimism already priced in, suggesting a need for a rebound [20] - The coal industry is expected to maintain a stable price range due to rigid supply and rising costs, despite short-term demand fluctuations [20]

Group 1: Global Market Performance - The MSCI Global Stock Index decreased by 0.34%, while the Bloomberg Global Commodity Index fell by 0.42%, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index dropped by 0.89%, and the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global REITs Index declined by 0.90% [1] - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with only the Chinese stock market rising among the BRICS nations; the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82% and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.93% [1] - In developed markets, the European STOXX Index rose by 1.15%, with Germany's DAX Index up by 1.97% and France's CAC40 Index up by 1.73%, while U.S. indices fell, with the S&P 500 down by 0.31% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Brent crude oil futures rose by 3.02% to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures increased by 2.16% to $68.45 per barrel [4] - Industrial metals showed mixed performance; aluminum prices increased by 0.50%, while copper prices fell by 2.07% [2] - Gold prices rose by 0.55% to $3,355.59 per ounce, and silver prices increased by 4.02% [2] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the 10-year yield rising by 6.4 basis points to 4.411% [2] - European countries also experienced rising yields, with the UK's 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.620% [2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.69% to 97.853, while the Japanese yen depreciated by over 2% against the dollar [2] Group 4: Economic Data and Trends - U.S. initial jobless claims were reported at 227,000, slightly below expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.965 million [3] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicated a divergence in views on interest rate adjustments, with some members favoring rate cuts while others expressed concerns about persistent inflation [3] - The Eurozone's retail sales increased by 1.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations [3] Group 5: REITs and Real Estate Market - The global REITs market saw a decline, with the STOXX Global 1800 REITs Index down by 1.03% [10] - U.S. REITs showed varied performance across sectors, with hotel REITs outperforming expectations [10] - The outlook for REITs remains mixed, with healthcare REITs showing consistent growth while retail REITs face volatility [10] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to monitor oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to consider gold price trends [9] - The potential for further monetary easing by central banks could create long-term investment opportunities in REITs [10]

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经上海7月13日电（葛佳明） 本周（7月7日至12日），美国关税政策不确定性再起，美股三大指数承压下挫，市场对美国通 胀的担忧推动美元指数震荡上行，非美货币多数下挫，黄金反弹，白银大涨，刷新2011年以来高位。 外汇市场方面，关税政策的不确定性推升美元走势，美元指数本周涨0.91%报97.873；非美货币方面，澳元兑美元本周持续走高，澳 洲联储维持利率不变，超市场预期；英镑和欧元兑美元震荡下跌，英镑录得六连跌；日元周初大幅下跌后维持区间盘整，本周累计 下跌2%。 大宗商品方面，现货黄金周初区间震荡，一度下破3300关口，但随着关税政策再度刺激市场避险情绪升温，周三黄金持续反弹，本 周累计涨幅达0.62%，收于每盎司3355.7美元，连续第二周上涨；纽约COMEX黄金主力期货合约本周上涨0.82%，收报每盎司3370.5 美元。 现货白银、铂金本周大幅上涨，其中，现货白银本周大涨3.98%，收报每盎司38.406美元；COMEX白银主力合约期货本周累计上涨 5.37%，收报每盎司39.08美元。现货铂金本周突破每盎司1400美元关口，NYMEX铂金期货价格本周累计上涨6.55%，收报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is entering an uncertain phase characterized by multiple risks, including inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions, particularly influenced by U.S. policies under the Trump administration [1][3][6]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. is expected to face "stagflation" in the second half of the year, with rising inflation and slowing growth. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to be cautious, delaying interest rate cuts until December, with cuts likely lower than market expectations [1][3][6]. - Core CPI in the U.S. is projected to rebound to 3.3% in Q4, influenced by rising import costs and tariffs [1][4][20]. Tariff and Trade Policy - Trump's use of tariffs is not solely aimed at reducing the trade deficit but also serves various geopolitical and economic purposes. The effectiveness of these tariffs will depend on whether they are implemented as planned [4][10]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from the EU if high tariffs are imposed is significant, and ongoing negotiations are crucial [10]. Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are at their highest in decades, with political influences potentially impacting monetary policy decisions [2][25][28]. - The upcoming vacancies in the Federal Reserve Board may provide Trump with opportunities to influence monetary policy further [1][25][26]. Global Economic Dynamics - The global economic landscape is shifting, with the U.S. potentially moving from an exceptional growth phase to a more normalized economic state, leading to a diversification of investments away from the U.S. [6][34]. - Other central banks are expected to have more room for rate cuts compared to the Fed, which may further influence global capital flows [7][40]. Inflation Factors - Factors contributing to rising inflation include tariffs, labor shortages due to immigration policies, and potential fiscal expansions as midterm elections approach [21][22][23]. - The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation is acknowledged, but its deflationary effects are still in early stages and may not significantly counteract inflationary pressures in the short term [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's renewed tariff threats on global markets, highlighting increased investor anxiety and potential economic repercussions in the U.S. and Europe [2][7][8]. Market Reactions - European stock markets experienced significant declines, with the Stoxx 600 and Stoxx 50 indices dropping over 1%, while U.S. stock indices also showed weakness, with the Dow Jones down 0.63% and the S&P 500 down 0.38% [2][5]. - Gold prices rebounded as a safe-haven asset, reaching $3,365.7 per ounce, a 1.2% increase, while silver surged 3.14% to $38.47 per ounce, the highest since September 2011 [10]. Economic Indicators - The UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive month of decline, which negatively affected the GBP/USD exchange rate [3][10]. - Analysts warn of rising inflation in the U.S. due to increased import costs from tariffs, predicting a rebound in core CPI to 3.3% in Q4 [4][16]. Investor Sentiment - There is a growing concern among investors regarding the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policies, leading to a phenomenon described as "tariff fatigue" [9][17]. - Recent data indicates a significant drop in the trading volume of declining stocks, suggesting an overly optimistic market sentiment that may lead to a mild correction [13][15]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the upcoming weeks will be critical in assessing the impact of tariffs on economic data, with potential implications for U.S. monetary policy and corporate earnings [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura warns that the global economy is entering an uncertain phase, with underestimation of policy risks potentially becoming a significant concern in the second half of the year [1][3][5]. Economic Outlook - The global economy is facing extreme uncertainty, particularly due to the new U.S. administration's policies and geopolitical risks [3][5]. - The U.S. is expected to experience typical stagflation pressures, with rising inflation and slowing growth, leading the Federal Reserve to be cautious and likely delaying interest rate cuts until December [1][3][5]. - Core CPI in the U.S. is projected to rebound to 3.3% in the fourth quarter due to rising import costs and tariffs impacting consumer prices [1][3][18]. U.S. Trade Policy - Trump's use of tariffs is not solely aimed at reducing the trade deficit but is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical considerations [3][8]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from the EU if high tariffs are imposed is significant, and ongoing negotiations are crucial [9][3]. Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are at their highest in decades, with political influence potentially affecting monetary policy [2][23][27]. - The upcoming vacancies in the Federal Reserve Board may provide Trump with opportunities to influence the central bank's direction [1][23][27]. Inflation Factors - Current low inflation levels in the U.S. are expected to rise due to tariffs, labor shortages from immigration policies, and potential fiscal policy expansions ahead of midterm elections [18][20][21]. - The impact of artificial intelligence on inflation is acknowledged, but its deflationary effects are still in early stages and may not significantly counteract inflationary pressures in the short term [29]. Market Sentiment - The market appears overly optimistic regarding the potential outcomes of the trade war, with expectations that tariffs will not significantly impact economic data [20][21]. - There is a notable shift in investment patterns, with a diversification away from U.S. assets towards European markets, driven by geopolitical pressures and economic conditions [31][32].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Musalem emphasizes that the U.S. should not be perceived as being in a stagflation environment [1] Group 1 - Musalem argues that the current economic indicators do not support the notion of stagflation, which is characterized by stagnant economic growth and high inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve is focused on managing inflation while supporting economic growth, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy [1] - Musalem highlights that recent economic data shows resilience, suggesting that the U.S. economy is not facing the dire conditions typically associated with stagflation [1]

Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a complex signal regarding monetary policy amid external shocks, particularly inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3] - If tariff-induced price increases are sustained and exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may consider maintaining a stricter monetary policy stance, even if core inflation data temporarily declines [3] - The minutes acknowledge a potential "stagflation" scenario where rising inflation coincides with a weakening labor market, forcing the Federal Reserve to make difficult trade-offs between inflation and employment targets [3][4] Group 2 - Following the release of the minutes, short-term interest rate futures experienced increased volatility, reflecting investor uncertainty about potential rate cuts in September [4] - The Federal Reserve's policy path is becoming highly data-dependent, with no clear signals indicating whether inflation expectations are out of control or if there is significant deterioration in employment [4] - The current environment is characterized by political risks, disrupted global supply chains, and misaligned expectations between domestic prices and employment, making upcoming data crucial for future policy decisions [4]

Group 1: Tariff Imposition - The Trump administration announced new tariffs on products from several countries, including a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025, which exceeded market expectations [2] - Tariffs of 25% will be imposed on products from Brunei and Moldova, 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka, and 20% on the Philippines [2] - The announcement led to a significant depreciation of the Brazilian real, with the USD/BRL exchange rate surpassing 5.60, reflecting a nearly 2.9% increase in the dollar's value [2] Group 2: International Reactions - Leaders from Japan and South Africa expressed regret and deemed the U.S. tariff actions as unreasonable, indicating a potential need for stronger countermeasures [3] - The European Union is preparing to respond to the U.S. tariffs, with ongoing disputes primarily focused on specific industries such as steel, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [3] - Analysts suggest that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration may accelerate a trend of "de-Americanization" as countries reassess their economic dependencies on the U.S. [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Criticism - The Trump administration intensified criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, claiming that current interest rates are at least 3 percentage points too high [4] - If the Fed were to lower rates as Trump suggested, it would bring rates down to a range of 1.25%-1.50%, the lowest in three years [5] - The administration's criticism is linked to rising national debt levels due to the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, prompting urgency in addressing interest rates [6]