[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 通胀上行加快 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 通胀上行加快。1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，连续第二个月环比正增长；其中核心 CPI（不包含食品和能源）环比为 0.3%，属 6 个月以来最高，高于春节分布相近的 2015、2018 年 1 月。1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，属于 2022 年 5 月 以来高点。 据万得数据（下同），1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，持平前值。 1 月核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，高于前值的 0.2%，持平于 2023 年 1 月的 0.4%，属于 2025 年 8 月以来最高。春节 分布相近的 2015 年、2018 年，核心 CPI 环比均为 0.2%。 1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，持平于 2023 年 9 月，属 2022 年 5 月以来高 ...

英国首相斯塔默正顶住要求其辞职的呼声，但一位分析师警告称，在他明确继任者人选之前，有影响力 的债券市场头上将悬着一把"达摩克利斯之剑"。 斯塔默因在2024年决定任命曼德尔森担任驻美大使而面临越来越大的压力，尽管曼德尔森与声名狼藉的 金融家及性犯罪者爱泼斯坦有关联。 数百万份与爱泼斯坦有关的新邮件和文件的发布，让人们重新审视曼德尔森与爱泼斯坦的关系，后者于 2019年在狱中死亡。 周一，随着斯塔默团队的关键成员辞职，以及来自他自己工党的一位资深政治家呼吁他下台，政府借贷 成本大幅跃升。 到了周二早上，即在支持者团结在斯塔默周围后，基准10年期英国国债收益率下跌至4.509%，而30年 期国债收益率下跌至5.319%。 "达摩克利斯之剑" 市场观察人士表示，可能颠覆斯塔默及其财政大臣里夫斯所制定政策路径的领导层挑战，对英国国债投 资者构成了重大风险。 如果斯塔默下台，或者挑战者获得足够的支持发起挑战，这将引发一场可能持续数周的领导权争夺战。 瑞穗EMEA的FICC策略主管Jordan Rochester在周一的一份报告中表示，如果引发领导权争夺战，随着寻 找新领导人的过程拖延，英国国债可能会"受制于随机政治头条 ...

Core Viewpoint - Inflation is accelerating, with January CPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the second consecutive month of positive growth. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3%, the highest in six months, surpassing similar periods in 2015 and 2018. January PPI increased by 0.4%, reaching the highest point since May 2022 [5][6][7]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - January CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with the previous value. Core CPI rose by 0.3%, higher than the previous value of 0.2% and equal to January 2023's 0.4%, marking the highest since August 2025 [6]. - January PPI increased by 0.4%, matching the previous month and reaching the highest level since May 2022. The base period adjustment and weight changes had a minor impact on the data, with an estimated effect of 0.06-0.08 percentage points on month-on-month growth rates [7][8]. Group 2: Price Increases in CPI - Notable month-on-month price increases in CPI include seasonal rises in tourism and service prices, with tourism prices up by 1.8% and service prices up by 0.2%. Specific increases include airfare (5.7%) and travel agency fees (2.0%) [2][8]. - The "CPI within PPI" category for household appliances continued to rise by 0.7%, with year-on-year growth increasing from 5.9% to 6.6%. Communication tools also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, with year-on-year growth at 1.3% [2][8]. - Pork prices experienced their first month-on-month increase in six months, rising by 1.2% in January [2]. Group 3: Price Decreases in CPI - Certain categories, such as alcoholic beverages and rental housing, continued to show month-on-month declines. These categories are significant for the capital market, reflecting shifts in consumer behavior and economic cycles [2][9][10]. Group 4: PPI Price Increases - In January, prices for globally priced non-ferrous metals rose significantly, with non-ferrous metal mining and smelting increasing by 5.7% and 5.2%, respectively. Other sectors, including cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery production, also saw increases [3][14][15]. - The automotive manufacturing sector reported zero growth, marking the first month without a decline in seven months. Prices in the AI industry chain, particularly for computer communication electronics, rose by 0.5% [3][16]. Group 5: Simulated Deflation Index - The simulated deflation index showed a year-on-year decline from -0.28% to -0.44% due to the timing of the Spring Festival, despite a month-on-month CPI increase. The index is expected to improve in February, potentially returning to around -0.28% [3][16].

然而，美联储官员近期的表态显示，货币政策转向并不急于一时。达拉斯联储主席洛根明确表示，当前更担忧通胀持续处于高位，并对现有政策利率能否推 动通胀回归2%目标持"谨慎乐观"态度。她强调，未来几个月的数据将验证当前政策立场是否适宜，若通胀下降同时劳动力市场明显走弱，降息才可能成为 合适选项。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克也持类似观点，认为政策利率可能"在相当长一段时间内维持不变"，并预计今年通胀率仍可能接近3%，与此前两年水 平相当。 研究机构凯投宏观指出，尽管12月单月数据疲弱尚不足以完全否定去年第四季度的消费表现，但结合2026年1月大部分地区遭遇极端寒冬天气可能进一步抑 制消费活动，2026年第一季度消费增长预计将显著放缓。这一判断如果成立，或将加剧经济动能减弱的压力。 整体来看，12月零售数据意外走弱，暴露出美国消费复苏的基础并不牢固，尤其在中低收入群体中显得更为明显。在通胀仍高于目标、劳动力市场尚未明显 降温的背景下，美联储的政策路径仍将高度依赖后续经济数据的表现。消费动能的可持续性，将成为影响2026年上半年美国经济与货币政策走向的关键观测 变量。 美国2025年12月零售销售数据的发布，揭示出消费者支出动能 ...

【导读】美联储戴利表示：利率将维持不变，但今年仍可能降息。 大家周末好，简单看一则关于美联储的消息。 旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利表示，由于通胀风险上升，美联储可能需要比预期更长时间维持利 率不变，但今年仍可能降息。 戴利在加州大学伯克利分校的一次活动中表示："与一年前相比，通胀的风险更高了，因此我们可能需 要比原先设想的更长时间维持紧缩政策。但这并不意味着要永远紧缩，因为最终通胀正在回落。" 戴利表示，她仍然认可美联储3月《经济预测摘要》（SEP）中的中位预期，即今年将降息两次、每次 25个基点。 她指出，如果通胀最终确实下降，"我们确实需要逐步降低利率，就像我们在SEP中所说的那样，以确 保不会对经济造成过度紧缩"。 （原标题：美联储最新发声！利率将维持不变 但今年仍可能降息） 大多数经济学家预计，这些关税在短期内至少会抑制经济增长并推高通胀。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 以及多位美联储官员本周表示，央行的重点是确保由关税引发的物价上涨不会演变成更为持久的通胀上 升。 戴利对此的态度则显得相对乐观一些。 她表示："我们目前的经济状况稳健，当然，货币政策仍然保持在紧缩状态，以持续对通胀施加下行压 力。" 她 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump signals a significant shift in the Fed's communication style and its approach to interest rate cuts, potentially altering market expectations and reactions to monetary policy changes [1][2]. Group 1: Warsh's Monetary Policy Approach - Warsh is characterized as a "disciplinarian" who prioritizes the long-term consequences of financial conditions and the institutional costs of balance sheet expansion, showing a natural aversion to the normalization of unconventional tools like quantitative easing (QE) [2][3]. - He believes that the threshold for initiating QE will be significantly raised in response to general economic fluctuations, as he views QE as distorting asset prices and exacerbating wealth inequality [2][3]. - Warsh emphasizes that while interest rate cuts may be necessary, they do not equate to excessive monetary easing, suggesting that current rates could be 50-100 basis points above the neutral rate, which is around 3% [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of Balance Sheet Reduction - Warsh advocates for using balance sheet reduction to create room for interest rate cuts, arguing that inflation stems from fiscal deficit expansion and excessive monetary issuance rather than an overheated labor market [3][4]. - His approach suggests that the Fed's intervention threshold will be raised during market turbulence, contrasting with the current trend of the Fed acting as a market backstop [3][4]. - The transition to a framework focused on price adjustment rather than quantity support could lead to increased volatility in money markets, as banks will need to manage liquidity more actively without relying on the Fed's unlimited supply [6][7]. Group 3: Political Considerations and Market Reactions - Trump's choice of Warsh reflects a desire for a candidate who is loyal and willing to cut rates while also being credible enough to navigate Senate confirmation and maintain market confidence [8][9]. - Warsh's "hawkish reputation" is seen as a competitive advantage, as it reassures the market that any future rate cuts will be based on monetary discipline rather than political compromise [9][10]. - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 create a political imperative for Warsh to align his actions with the administration's goals, particularly in managing inflation and living costs for voters [10][14]. Group 4: Future Market Implications - The midterm elections are expected to serve as a natural dividing line for policy pacing, with Warsh likely to adopt a gradual approach to reforms post-election, regardless of the election outcome [15][16]. - The Fed's communication style is anticipated to shift, with less frequent guidance and a reduction in the predictability of rate cuts, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [16][18]. - Overall, while the narrative of a weak dollar remains intact, the focus on fundamental performance in the stock market may increase, with a notable return to value sectors as high valuations and leverage are scrutinized [18].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the Chinese economy, with expected GDP growth targets adjusted to a range of 4.5%-5% for 2026, reflecting a conservative approach to fiscal policy and economic expectations [1][7]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is experiencing uneven growth, with exports and manufacturing growth exceeding 5%, while the real estate sector is significantly declining, indicating a structural economic transition towards technology innovation [1][3]. - Local government meetings have revealed a downward adjustment in growth targets for 2026, with a weighted average decrease from 5.3% to 5.1%, suggesting a cautious outlook across most provinces [5][6]. - The anticipated appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is about 4% for 2026, which is higher than the market's implied rate of 2.5%, but the negative impacts on exports and inflation are expected to be limited [1][9][13]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Expectations - The expected GDP growth target for 2026 is set between 4.5% and 5%, with an inflation target maintained at around 2% [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain at approximately 4% of GDP, with special government bond issuance expected to be consistent with the previous year [7]. Local Government Insights - A majority of provinces have lowered their growth targets, with 21 out of 31 provinces adjusting their goals downwards, indicating a collective preparation for a more cautious economic environment [5][6]. - Core provinces like Beijing and Shanghai have maintained their growth targets around 5%, while Guangdong has adjusted its target down to 4.5%-5% [5]. Currency and Inflation - The RMB is expected to appreciate by about 4% in 2026, which may lead to increased export prices and reduced import prices, potentially exacerbating deflationary pressures [11][13]. - CPI is projected to decrease to 0.3% year-on-year in January 2026, while PPI is expected to be -1.4%, indicating a need to monitor manufacturing cost-driven inflation [16]. Market Dynamics - The stock market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, despite significant sell-offs by state-owned entities, with retail investor sentiment remaining high [17]. - There has been a strong inflow of capital from southbound investments, with net purchases reaching $16 billion, indicating robust interest in Hong Kong stocks [18]. Real Estate Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to reach a bottom within at least 12 months, with current policy support deemed insufficient to stimulate demand effectively [29].

澳大利亚央行进一步发出了强烈的信号，表明其需要进一步加息以遏制通胀问题。副行长Andrew Hauser在一次商业午餐会上表示，通胀过高，将采取一切措施将其压低。他补充说，该央行必须尊重经 济的"速度极限"，指的是供应受限而需求强劲的问题。鉴于澳大利亚央行目前的预测显示通胀将在一段 时间内徘徊在目标区间上方，5月份再次加息的可能性似乎很大。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve official Logan expresses "cautious optimism" regarding the ability of current policy rates to stabilize the labor market while bringing inflation down to the 2% target, emphasizing that upcoming economic data will validate this judgment [1][6] - Logan indicates that if inflation continues to decline while the labor market remains stable, the current policy stance is appropriate, and no further rate cuts are necessary to achieve dual mandates [1][6] - She notes that the downward risks to the labor market have "significantly eased" after three rate cuts last year, but this has added upward pressure on inflation [1][6] Group 2: European Central Bank Research - Recent research from European Central Bank economists shows that U.S. tariff policies are dragging down economic growth and inflation levels in the Eurozone [2][7] - The study estimates that a 1% decline in Eurozone exports to the U.S. due to tariff impacts could lead to a cumulative 0.1% decrease in the consumer price index approximately 18 months later [2][7] - It highlights that the sectors most affected by tariffs, such as machinery, automotive, and chemicals, are also the most sensitive to interest rate changes, providing potential space for the ECB to use monetary policy tools to mitigate external trade shocks [2][7] Group 3: Currency Market Movements - The U.S. dollar index experienced slight gains, trading around 96.80, supported by short covering and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials that tempered rate cut expectations [3][8] - The euro saw a slight decline, trading around 1.1900, influenced by profit-taking and the stabilization of the dollar index due to the Fed's hawkish stance [4][9] - The British pound also faced downward pressure, trading around 1.3650, affected by profit-taking and concerns over political uncertainty in the UK [5][10]

澳大利亚央行进一步发出了强烈的信号，表明其需要进一步加息以遏制通胀问题。副行长Andrew Hauser在一次商业午餐会上表示，通胀过高，将采取一切措施将其压低。他补充说，该央行必须尊重经 济的"速度极限"，指的是供应受限而需求强劲的问题。鉴于澳大利亚央行目前的预测显示通胀将在一段 时间内徘徊在目标区间上方，5月份再次加息的可能性似乎很大。 澳大利亚央行进一步发出了强烈的信号，表明其需要进一步加息以遏制通胀问题。副行长Andrew Hauser在一次商业午餐会上表示，通胀过高，将采取一切措施将其压低。他补充说，该央行必须尊重经 济的"速度极限"，指的是供应受限而需求强劲的问题。鉴于澳大利亚央行目前的预测显示通胀将在一段 时间内徘徊在目标区间上方，5月份再次加息的可能性似乎很大。 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 ...