Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 20,770 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific amounts maturing each day [1] - A total of 36 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 5.066 billion shares with a total market value of 92.315 billion yuan based on the closing price on August 22 [4] - New stock listings include Huaxin Jingke on August 25 and Shuangdeng Co. on August 26, focusing on energy storage batteries, while Jiaxin International Resources will list on August 28, specializing in tungsten mining in Kazakhstan [4] Group 2 - Nvidia is set to release its latest financial report next Wednesday, with market attention on its third-quarter guidance, which may exclude direct revenue from the Chinese market due to U.S. export restrictions [9] - Alibaba Group will announce its Q1 results for the fiscal year 2026 on August 29, which will be crucial for assessing its "user-first, AI-driven" strategic transformation [10] - Meituan is expected to report its Q2 results on August 27, with anticipated revenue growth but significant pressure on profitability due to intense competition in its core food delivery business [10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, **South American investment trends**, and **Chinese market dynamics**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Challenges**: The U.S. economy is facing risks of stagflation, with declining consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations. The service sector PMI indicates rising prices while economic activity indicators are declining, similar to the situation in 2022 [1][4]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs and Immigration Policies**: Tightening tariffs and immigration policies are major factors affecting the U.S. economy. The Trump administration's tariff investigation on imported furniture and the suspension of work visas for truck drivers may lead to stock price declines and increased unemployment pressure [1][5][6]. 3. **Federal Reserve's Dilemma**: The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may not alleviate stagflation, as the root causes lie in immigration and tariff policies. Lowering rates could accelerate price increases, worsening CPI and PPI [1][7]. 4. **South American Pension Funds**: Chile and Peru have reduced their allocations to Chinese assets due to weak performance during the pandemic. Chile's pension fund is approximately $190 billion, while Peru's is around $34 billion. Both countries have allowed early pension withdrawals, leading to a 15% reduction in fund sizes [1][8]. 5. **Concerns of South American Investors**: Investors from South America express concerns about China's economic outlook, including weak real estate, low consumer confidence, rising youth unemployment, and regulatory risks. These factors influence their investment decisions [1][9]. 6. **U.S.-China Tariff Negotiations**: Current U.S.-China tariff negotiations appear stable, with ongoing discussions and no immediate negative impacts anticipated [1][10]. 7. **Chinese Stock Market Dynamics**: The rise in the Chinese stock market is supported by a soft landing in the real estate sector, initial economic recovery, ample liquidity, and a depreciating dollar. However, consumer growth remains relatively lagging [1][11]. 8. **Real Estate Market in China**: The Chinese real estate market is adjusting but has not triggered a financial crisis, indicating a relatively orderly soft landing [1][12][13]. 9. **Consumer Behavior in China**: Consumption in China is often a lagging indicator due to its production-oriented economy. The wealth effect is shifting from real estate to the stock market, which may delay consumption growth [1][14]. 10. **Manufacturing Sector Insights**: Despite narrow profit margins, China's manufacturing competitiveness is improving, with rising global market shares in electric vehicles and other products [1][15]. 11. **Inflation and Deflation Analysis**: Long-term economic growth relies on productivity improvements and population growth, suggesting resilience in potential economic growth rates [1][16]. 12. **Liquidity and Policy Outlook**: The likelihood of restrictive policies is low in the early recovery phase, with the central bank maintaining ample liquidity [1][17]. 13. **Investment Perspectives**: South American investors are increasingly open to Chinese investments, while U.S. investors remain cautious due to geopolitical tensions [1][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The dual challenges of inflation and unemployment in the U.S. create a complex environment for the Federal Reserve, necessitating a careful balancing act in monetary policy [1][4][7]. - The potential for increased South American investment in China is contrasted with the more conservative approach of U.S. investors, highlighting differing regional attitudes towards risk and opportunity [1][18].

综合下来这就变的十分的矛盾，那么这一波特朗普能赌赢嘛？ 美联储提前泄密，华尔街收到风声，降息存在变数？特朗普要赌输了 怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔小镇，全球的央行领导人都会集结在这里，开一个决定全球经济命脉的大会。 美联储主席鲍威尔即将在这里的央行年会上发声，而市场却提前嗅到了火药味，原本被特朗普"钦点"的9月降息，突然悬了。华尔街的投行机构们就好像 收到了风声一般，开始迅速的调整仓位，快速降低9月份美联储降息的概率。 而特朗普呢，一方面想让美联储尽快降息，为自己的执政增加助力，好在中期选举的时候别出意外，另外一方面又想用强劲的经济数据来彰显自己的执政 能力。 降息梦碎：从"板上钉钉"到"鹰派惊雷" 8月18日在美联储主席鲍威尔参加杰克逊霍尔之前，华尔街的大型投行发布了一些振聋发聩的研究报告： 汇丰认为：鲍威尔可能很难再说出"很鸽"的话，因为现在既有通胀压力，又有就业放缓，出现点类似"滞胀"的味道。如果这时候太放松，风险更大。 美国银行认为，鲍威尔完全有理由"按兵不动"，在杰克逊霍尔上保持谨慎，不想被市场绑架。 花旗银行认为，其美元持仓指标已从小幅空头变为零，暗示当前投资者没有明显的净多空倾向。 7月底，市场对9月降 ...

Financial Reports - Nvidia, Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, Luxshare Precision, and Zhongji Xuchuang are set to release their financial data [3][22][26][27]. - Nvidia is expected to report a revenue of $45.92 billion for Q3, with an EPS of $1.01, despite uncertainties in the Chinese market due to U.S. export restrictions [18][19]. - Alibaba's Q1 revenue for FY2026 is projected to reach 249 billion yuan, a 2% year-on-year increase, but adjusted EBITA is expected to decline by 15% to 38.2 billion yuan due to significant subsidies in its flash purchase business [22][23]. - Meituan's Q2 revenue is anticipated to be between 92.4 billion and 95.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 16.3%, but net profit is expected to drop by 29.3% to 50.6% [24]. - Pinduoduo is projected to achieve a revenue of 103.2 billion yuan for Q2, a 6.32% increase year-on-year, with an expected EPS of 12.3 yuan, down 43.08% [26]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%, indicating rising service sector inflation [4]. - The U.S. Q2 GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.1%, surpassing the market expectation of 2.6%, but the growth is considered misleading due to a significant drop in imports [5][6]. - U.S. July durable goods orders fell by 9.3% in June, with a core data increase of 0.25% month-on-month, indicating a challenging investment environment for businesses [9]. - China's official manufacturing PMI for August dropped to 49.3%, signaling a slowdown in manufacturing activity [10]. - China's industrial profits for July showed a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, although the automotive sector saw a profit increase of 96.8% due to promotional activities [11]. Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total tariff rate to 50%, which is expected to significantly impact India's economic growth [13][14].

基本内容 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议中转鸽来的毫无预兆，且一些言论与 7 月 FOMC 记者发布会的表态背道而驰。在对经济的回 顾与展望中，鲍威尔对于劳动力市场的观点产生了 180 度转变，开始极度担忧就业下行风险。 这种参考系的转变与 7 月不降息十分类似，很难用单纯的经济数据变化来解释，或许证明了特朗普对联储的政治高压 终于取得回报。 尽管联储对于 2025 年的降息预期一直保持在2 次（50bp），但这次如此清晰的鸽派信号，加强的不仅仅是9 月降息 25bp， 更是年内连续降息的可能。 我们想提醒的是，偏宽松的货币政策环境和偏鸽派的政策框架的副作用是不容忽视的；美国未来更难控制的通胀动态。 大幅降息后，一个再加速的美国经济必然面临着更高的通胀中枢；今年更"滞"，明年更"胀"。这也意味着美国对于 AI 科技大幅提升生产效率的的押注必须延续，某种程度上这是美国的国家意志。 风险提示 1）特朗普的政策不确定性加大，带来金融市场更明显的动荡和海外资金更快逃离美元。2）全球经济在关税越发明确 的情况下受到更大影响，下半年全球同步宽松幅度超预期，甚至带来全球共振扩表，明显缓解长端利率压力。3）技 术突破带来制造业回流加 ...

尽管联储对于2025年的降息预期一直保持在2次（50bp），但这次如此清晰的鸽派信号，加强的不仅 仅是9月降息25bp，更是年内连续降息的可能。 鲍威尔的杰克逊霍尔会议发言分为两个部分，第一部分是经济回顾与展望，第二部分是对联储货币政策 框架的修改。在整个演讲的最开头，鲍威尔便直白地说出了"风险平衡似乎正在发生变化(the balance of risks appears to be shifting)"，这给整个演讲奠定了鸽派基调。 一、鲍威尔的"杰克逊霍尔"大撤退 鲍威尔对劳动力市场总结为"当下处于一种供需双弱的奇异平衡状态"，更为关键的是"就业的下行风险 正 在 上 升 ， 且 如 果 这 些 风 险 成 为 现 实 ， 可 能 会 以 大 幅 增 加 裁 员 和 失 业 率 上 升 的 形 式 迅 速 实 现 （downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising un ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference indicated a shift in risk balance and a significant increase in employment downside risk, suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September [1] - The S&P 500 index rose from an early gain of 0.4% to 1.6%, closing at 6466.91 points, just 0.03% below its historical closing high [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new annual high, closing at 45631.74 points, surpassing previous peaks from December 2024 [1] Group 2 - The market anticipates the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower the current interest rate (4.25%-4.50%) by 25 basis points at the September 16-17 meeting, with some expecting another cut in October and most predicting a second cut in December [1] - Intel reached an agreement with the Trump administration to convert $8.9 billion in unpaid subsidies into non-voting common stock, making the U.S. government Intel's largest single shareholder with a 10% stake [1] - SoftBank invested $2 billion in Intel earlier this week, acquiring a 2% stake [1] Group 3 - The U.S. housing market index for August recorded 32, slightly down from July's 33, while new home starts in July were at an annualized rate of 1.428 million, exceeding expectations [2] - The July existing home sales increased by 2.0% to an annualized rate of 4.01 million, with the median sales price rising to $422,400, a 0.2% increase from June [2] - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for August was 53.3, above expectations, while the services PMI was 55.4, also exceeding forecasts [2] Group 4 - The weekly mortgage application volume in the U.S. decreased by 1.4%, with refinancing applications dropping by 3.1% [3] - The EIA reported a decrease of 6 million barrels in crude oil inventory, while initial jobless claims rose to 235,000, higher than expected [3] - Among the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, 9 sectors saw gains, with the energy sector performing the best, up 2.81% for the week [3] Group 5 - The S&P 500 index had its best single-day performance on Friday (+1.52%) and its worst on Tuesday (-0.59%) [4] - The VIX index closed at 14.23, down from the previous week's 15.09, indicating reduced market volatility [4] - As of the second quarter of 2025, 78.0% of S&P 500 companies reported earnings above expectations, with projected earnings growth of 11.9% quarter-over-quarter and 10.3% year-over-year [4]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. July PCE price index year-on-year was reported at 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5% and revised up from the previous value of 2.3% [7] - The U.S. Q2 actual GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter revised value was 3.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.6% [4][7] - The U.S. July durable goods orders month-on-month preliminary value showed a decline of 3.4%, following a significant drop of 9.4% in June [3][9] Company Earnings - Nvidia is set to release its latest earnings report, with a focus on its Q3 guidance, which may exclude direct revenue from the Chinese market due to U.S. export restrictions [14] - Alibaba's Q1 FY2026 earnings report is anticipated to reflect the impact of its 500 billion yuan subsidy plan, with total revenue expected to reach 249 billion yuan, a 2% year-on-year increase, but adjusted EBITA expected to decline by 15% [18] - Meituan's Q2 earnings report is expected to show revenue growth between 924.04 billion yuan and 956.70 billion yuan, but net profit is projected to decline significantly due to intense competition in the food delivery sector [19] Industry Developments - UBS predicts that the U.S. GDP growth rate will slow from 2.0% in Q2 to 0.9% in Q4, citing factors such as demand depletion before tariff increases and the exhaustion of excess savings [8] - The manufacturing PMI in China for August dropped to 49.3%, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing market demand [10] - Lixun Precision has submitted an application for H-share listing in Hong Kong, with projected revenues of 214 billion yuan, 231.9 billion yuan, and 268.8 billion yuan for 2022 to 2024 [21][22]

新华社华盛顿8月22日电 综述｜鲍威尔暗示降息 通胀就业难平衡 新华社记者徐静 通常来说，高通胀要求美联储保持高利率，而就业市场放缓将推动其降低利率。但观察人士认为，尽管 就业市场疲软与政治压力构成降息推力，但通胀黏性与政策滞后效应使美联储倾向于"以时间换空间"， 今年以来在货币政策方面一直"按兵不动"。 美国就业市场7月明显降温。美国劳工部8月份公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至 4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，表现逊于市场预期的11万。 美国7月份通胀压力维持6月份以来的上升势头，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨3.1%，远高于美联储制定的2%目标。 在美联储内部，降息信号引来质疑。圣路易斯联储银行行长阿尔伯托·穆萨莱姆22日表示，目前美国通 胀高于美联储2%的目标，就业市场的风险也尚未真正到来，在决定支持美联储9月降息之前，需要更多 数据支撑。 克利夫兰联储银行行长哈马克22日接受美国电视新闻网采访时表示，美国通胀仍然过高，且过去一年呈 上升态势。她说，只要通胀仍然构成威胁，就会对降息继续持犹豫态度。 美国总统特朗普此前多次施压鲍威尔降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicate a dovish stance, suggesting a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points in the upcoming September meeting due to changing economic risks [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold prices experienced a rebound after hitting a low of $3321, closing at $3371, reflecting a significant daily gain [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell nearly 1%, making gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [1] - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut at the next monetary policy meeting, with further cuts anticipated by the end of the year [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Powell acknowledged the clear impact of the trade war on consumer prices but suggested it may be a one-time shock that the central bank can overlook [1] - He noted that while inflation faces upward risks, the labor market is not particularly tight, indicating a challenging economic environment [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices found short-term support around $3325, with the 100-day moving average serving as a key defense level [3] - A drop below the recent low of $3311 could accelerate declines towards $3300 or even $3270-3265, marking the lower boundary of a three-month trading range [3] - Resistance is noted in the $3348-3350 range, with a breakthrough potentially triggering short covering and pushing prices towards $3375 and beyond [3]