Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Volatile [3] - CSI 300 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Consolidation [3] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [4] - Logs: Volatile [4] - Pulp: Volatile [4] - Offset paper: Stable and volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Volatile [6] - Palm oil: Volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and weakening [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile [6] - Live pigs: Weak [7] - Rubber: Volatile [9] - PX: Wide-range volatility [9] - PTA: Wide-range volatility [9] - MEG: Low-level volatility [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The short-term fundamentals of the black industry have no prominent contradictions, and the supply and demand factors are in a tug-of-war, making it difficult to form a large unilateral market. The overall operation is expected to be volatile within a range [2] - After the New Year's Day holiday, the stock market is expected to be led by the technology sector, especially the semiconductor materials and information technology service concepts. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3] - The logic driving the current round of gold price increase has not reversed. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide solid medium- and long-term support for the gold price [4] - The spot market price of logs is running steadily. The expected increase in arrivals last week, but the supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost has positive expectations. The log price is expected to be mainly volatile [4] - The fundamentals of the pulp market show a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price may maintain a volatile trend [4] - The short-term trend of oils and fats is volatile. Attention should be paid to the weather in the South American soybean-producing areas and the risks of production and sales changes in Malaysian palm oil [6] - The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak. After New Year's Day and before the Spring Festival, the market focus will be on the weather in South America, the implementation of auction policies, the rhythm of soybean arrivals, and the efficiency of Spring Festival logistics [6] - The average transaction weight of live pigs in the next period may turn down. After the New Year's Day holiday, the weekly average price of live pigs may decline slightly [7] - The natural rubber market is characterized by marginal relief of supply, entry into the traditional consumption off-season, and high inventory. The upward movement of rubber prices faces obvious resistance, and the price is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend [9] - The short-term price of PX should be treated with caution after the sharp increase. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control management [9] - The short-term spot price of PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [9] - After the holiday, the price center of MEG is expected to be mainly adjusted within a range [9] - The polyester bottle chip market is still mainly driven by cost. Attention should be paid to the terminal pick-up situation [9] - The processing fee of short-fiber factories is low, the cost-side support is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak [9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - Iron ore: In the first quarter, the main producing areas in Australia and Brazil enter the seasonal weather-sensitive period, which may lead to a phased contraction in shipments. The steel mills' winter storage replenishment demand is gradually increasing, providing short-term support for steel prices. However, the high domestic port inventory suppresses the upward range of iron ore prices. The short-term operation is expected to be volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: After the four rounds of price cuts for coke are implemented, the fundamentals are expected to improve, but the steel mills' procurement is still expected to be cautious. In January, there is an expectation of an increase in coking coal supply, and the support for the cost side of coke is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal and the downstream year-end stocking rhythm [2] - Rebar: During the New Year's Day holiday, the market activity decreased. The output of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rebounded. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline, and the traders' willingness to take goods was weak. The steel price is estimated to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2] - Glass: The spot market sentiment during the holiday was still weak, the spot price declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. There is an expectation of cold repair at the end of the year. The market is expected to first verify whether the supply reduction is implemented and then verify whether the demand can be maintained. Attention should be paid to the macro situation and the cold repair of production lines [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: After the New Year's Day holiday, the market is expected to be led by the technology sector. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures and stock index options [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond is flat, and the market trend rebounds slightly. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations, and the one-day net withdrawal of funds is 4336 billion yuan [3] Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical conflicts provide solid medium- and long-term support for the gold price. In the short term, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts are positive for the gold price, while the position adjustment pressure at the beginning of the year and the reduction of the leverage ratio by the world's largest exchange suppress the gold price [4] - Silver: The short-term trend is similar to that of gold, with high-level volatility [4] Light Industry - Logs: The spot market price is running steadily. The expected increase in arrivals last week, but the supply tends to be stable, the demand is relatively weak, and the cost has positive expectations. The log price is expected to be mainly volatile [4] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices is increasing, but the demand is not good, and the fundamentals show a pattern of loose supply and demand. The price may maintain a volatile trend [4] - Offset paper: The supply side is relatively stable this week, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand side has support for the market, but the social orders are average. The large paper mills have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the positive sentiment may continue, but the fundamental driving support is not strong. The short-term price is expected to be stable and volatile [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils and fats: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the high inventory still suppresses the price. The biofuel blending policy is still uncertain. The demand outlook for US soybeans is uncertain, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is still abundant. The short-term trend of oils and fats is volatile [6] - Meals: The global soybean ending inventory is relatively loose. The weather conditions in Brazil are excellent, while Argentina is facing drought. The new-season soybeans are approaching the market. The price of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazil, and the demand scale is uncertain. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is cautious. The meal market is expected to be volatile and weak [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs in the next period may turn down. The demand for live pigs during the New Year's Day holiday boosts the pig price, but after the holiday, the weekly average price may decline slightly [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply side of natural rubber is narrowing in the short term, and the raw material rubber price is relatively strong. The demand side is supported insufficiently, and the inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period. The upward movement of rubber prices faces obvious resistance, and the price is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend [9] Polyester - PX: The supply of PX is generally loose, and the downstream demand is seasonally weakening. The short-term price should be treated with caution after the sharp increase. It is recommended to do a good job in risk control management [9] - PTA: The short-term spot price of PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly, with the spot basis fluctuating within a range [9] - MEG: The load of domestic MEG is slowly recovering, the overseas supply is being squeezed out, and the port inventory is high and continues to accumulate. After the holiday, the price center of MEG is expected to be mainly adjusted within a range [9] - PR: The short-term supply increases slightly, the downstream maintains rigid demand replenishment, and the supply and demand stalemate pattern continues. The polyester bottle chip market is still mainly driven by cost. Attention should be paid to the terminal pick-up situation [9] - PF: The processing fee of short-fiber factories is low, the cost-side support is weakening, and the demand is expected to be weak [9]

Group 1 - The geopolitical risks have intensified following the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, leading investors to seek the safe-haven properties of precious metals [1] - On January 5, spot silver and gold prices surged, with silver rising over 4% and gold increasing by 2% during trading [1] - As of the report, spot silver was up 3.6% at $75.44 per ounce, while spot gold rose 1.52% to $4397.23 per ounce [1] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump threatened significant consequences for Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez if she does not cooperate with U.S. intervention efforts [4] - Trump indicated that U.S. officials would "take control" of the situation in Venezuela until a democratic transition of power is achieved, although he did not provide a timeline for this process [4] - MKS Pamp SA's research head, Nicky Shiels, noted that the market must reassess not only the risks from Venezuela but also uncertainties related to the U.S. and its military influence [4] Group 3 - CITIC Construction pointed out that the U.S. launched a large-scale military operation against Venezuela on January 3, which faced strong international condemnation, further escalating global tensions and driving safe-haven investments into gold [4] - In the base metals sector, the beginning of the new year saw copper supply issues due to worker strikes, exacerbating existing supply tensions [4] - There are concerns about potential production cuts in the aluminum sector, and Indonesian nickel miners proposed reducing nickel ore quotas, supporting a rebound in nickel prices [4]

上周末的美国拘捕委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗事件引发全球市场震荡，交易员正评估事件对全球原 油供应及该国能源行业更广泛影响的后果，原油价格出现波动，由于避险需求升温，黄金价格随之上 涨。 布伦特原油开盘一度下跌1.2%，随后收复失地，截至发稿，交易价格为每桶61.12美元，WTI原油价格 为每桶57.61美元。尽管委内瑞拉周末发生剧变，但该欧佩克产油国仅占全球供应的很小一部分，且市 场已在应对不断膨胀的供应过剩。 黄金和白银价格上涨。在美国拘捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，地缘政治风险上升，投资者转 向寻求贵金属的避险属性。 现货黄金周一早盘交易中一度上涨0.9%，升至每盎司4,370美元上方。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，在 推翻马杜罗后，美国计划"掌管"委内瑞拉，这给这个南美国家未来的治理带来了不确定性。国务卿马可 ·鲁比奥称华盛顿将利用石油作为杠杆迫使该国进行进一步变革。 "市场现在不得不重新定价的，不仅是委内瑞拉风险，还有美国的不可预测性和军事投射能力，"贵金属 精炼商MKS Pamp SA的研究主管尼基·希尔斯在一份报告中表示。 "委内瑞拉产量的任何短期中断都很容易通过其他地区的增产来弥补，"凯投 ...

黄金和白银价格上涨，在美国抓捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，投资者寻求贵金属避险。 金价攀升至每盎司4360美元左右，此前一周下跌4.4%。美国国务卿鲁比奥表示，美国将利用石油方面 的影响力迫使委内瑞拉做出进一步改变。 责任编辑：王永生 黄金和白银价格上涨，在美国抓捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，投资者寻求贵金属避险。 黄金价格上涨0.6%，至每盎司4359.36美元。白银价格上涨0.6%，至每盎司73.26美元。铂金和钯金价格 也出现上涨。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王永生 金价攀升至每盎司4360美元左右，此前一周下跌4.4%。美国国务卿鲁比奥表示，美国将利用石油方面 的影响力迫使委内瑞拉做出进一步改变。 黄金价格上涨0.6%，至每盎司4359.36美元。白银价格上涨0.6%，至每盎司73.26美元。铂金和钯金价格 也出现上涨。 ...

WTI原油： 消息面：美东时间1月3日凌晨，美国对南美某国发起军事行动，并对其领导人实施抓捕，引发全球地缘 政治动荡，市场关注度较高，但因处于周末休市时间，国内外原油期货盘面没有交易，接下来市场将密 切关注周一及以后的原油走势。基本面美国原油产量维持高位，OPEC+产量小幅提高，全球总石油库 存高位，美国商业库存偏低，但炼厂开工率持续提升至高位后，库存转移至成品油持续累库。总体看， 原油供需仍偏向过剩，但美国、委内瑞拉地缘升级，关注短期对原油的利多影响。技术面区间震荡偏 弱。 技术面：技术面来看，日线摆动图表显示原油主趋势为下行，但市场动能正逐步走高。若油价突破 58.88美元，主趋势将转为上行；若跌破56.65美元，市场动能则会转向下行。若油价能站稳57.60美元上 方，意味着日内买方力量进场。上行压力增强的情况下，轻质原油期货有望测试另一关键50%回撤位 58.62美元，以及作为长期趋势指标的50日移动平均线58.77美元。若油价未能突破57.60美元，则释放出 卖方进场信号，价格可能下探56.86美元至56.38美元的次级回撤区间。若该区间缺乏逆势买方支撑，油 价或将跌破56.38美元，届时55.61美 ...

FWDBONDS首席经济学家克里斯托弗·鲁普基表示："多年来，首次领取失业救济的申请在假期和恶劣 冬季天气期间波动较大，但就业市场的缺乏或实质性疲软令人印象深刻，因为经济没有接近衰退的迹 象。" 标普全球1月2日公布的数据显示，美国2025年12月制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）终值为51.8，与此前 初值及市场预期持平，但较11月的52.2有所回落。数据维持在扩张区间，显示美国制造业在多重经济压 力下仍具一定韧性，但扩张力度降至过去五个月来的最低水平，制造业复苏动能正在放缓。 从分项指标来看，12月制造业生产虽仍保持增长，增速较前一个月明显放慢；与此同时，新订单出现了 一年来的首次萎缩，反映出需求端开始显现疲态。标普全球指出，这一变化部分与关税因素有关，关税 持续推高企业运营成本，使制造业企业面临更大的经营压力。尽管如此，投入品价格和产出价格的涨幅 均降至11个月以来的最低水平，显示成本传导压力在一定程度上有所缓和。 标普全球首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson指出，目前生产增长与订单下降之间的差距已扩大至自 2008年全球金融危机高峰以来的最大水平，凸显制造业面临的潜在风险。如果需求不能尽快改善 ...

美联储自2025年9月以来已累计降息75个基点，市场普遍预计，2026年美联储可能再进行两次降息。 北京师范大学教授万喆表示，央行持续购金仍是支撑黄金价格的重要因素。从宏观环境看，美联储已进 入降息周期，实际利率下行将降低持有黄金的机会成本，对金价形成中长期支撑。同时，全球地缘政治 风险依然存在，避险需求为金价提供底部支撑。综合判断，2026年黄金大概率维持高位震荡、整体较为 稳健的运行格局。 2026年，贵金属价格是否继续上涨？据央行公布的数据，截至2025年11月末，中国黄金储备规模达到 7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，已连续第13个月增持黄金。 中国（香港）金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英预计，2026年在地缘政治风险与美元降息形成的中长期 结构性利好支撑下，现货黄金价格中枢有望上移至每盎司5000美元左右。 白银价格近期出现"过山车"行情。纽约商品交易所白银期货价格2025年12月28日首次突破每盎司80美元 关口，再创历史新高。此后，银价出现大幅波动。 受访专家认为，白银价格弹性明显高于黄金。万喆表示，白银市场已连续多年处于结构性短缺状态，在 2026年仍具备较强的基本面支撑，但其价格波动幅度预计将 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, are expected to perform well in 2026, continuing the strong performance seen in 2025, driven by factors such as potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices are nearing $4,400 per ounce, while silver has surpassed $74, indicating a strong start to 2026 [1]. - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility in late December 2025 due to profit-taking by investors, but the fundamental factors are regaining focus as the year begins [3]. - In 2025, gold reached multiple historical highs, supported by central bank purchases, the Federal Reserve's easing policies, and geopolitical tensions that increased safe-haven demand [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Silver's price increase in 2025 was even more pronounced than gold's, reaching levels previously deemed unattainable, influenced by concerns over potential U.S. import tariffs on refined metals [3]. - Analysts predict that up to 13% of total positions in the Comex silver market may be liquidated in the next two weeks, which could lead to a significant price reevaluation and decline [3]. - Major banks remain bullish on gold prices for 2026, with Goldman Sachs projecting a rise to $4,900 per ounce, indicating an upward risk bias [4].

24K99讯 周五(1月2日)亚市盘中，现货黄金持续大幅攀升，目前金价位于4378美元/盎司附近，日内暴涨 近60美元。FXStreet分析师Lallalit Srijandorn周五撰文，对金价进行分析。 (现货黄金30分钟图 来源：24K99) 此外，持续不断的以色列-伊朗冲突和美国-委内瑞拉紧张局势可能会推高金价。值得注意的是，交易者 在不确定时期会寻求能够保值的资产，这支撑了黄金等传统避险资产。 另一方面，Srijandorn警告称，交易者也可能获利了结或重新调整投资组合，这可能会限制金价的上涨 空间。 芝加哥商品交易所(CME)集团提高了黄金、白银和其他金属的保证金要求。这些通知要求交易者在交易 中投入更多资金，以防范合约交割时可能出现的违约风险。CME是全球最大的商品交易平台之一。 黄金后市分析与展望 Srijandorn写道，周五亚洲市场金价大幅攀升。市场预期美联储今年将降息，以及地缘政治风险可能推 高金价。不过，CME集团提高黄金和白银期货的保证金要求，可能会限制贵金属价格的上涨空间。 黄金在2025年以显著上涨收官，全年涨幅约为65%，创下1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。贵金属价格上涨 的动力 ...

2025年，黄金经历了历史性牛市，国际金价年内涨幅一度超过约70%。这一暴涨既有此前数年价格上行 的蓄势而发，也有当前世界经济多重困境的催化。在国际秩序深度重构背景下，全球发展信心的显著变 化、世界经济前景的潜在风险以及历史周期的微妙镜像，都映照在黄金"狂飙"中。 国际金价迎来历史性牛市 2025年黄金价格飙升，出现自1979年石油危机以来最大涨幅，期货黄金和现货黄金在年末均一度逼近每 盎司4600美元，迎来数十年来最大牛市。 通过数据分析，本轮金价从2019年下半年逐步开启上行通道，当年涨幅约为18%；2020年至2023年间， 国际金价多次突破2000美元，在此期间正是新冠疫情全球蔓延、世界经济遭受冲击、地缘政治局势紧 张、美联储实行量化宽松之际。从年度涨幅来看，2020年和2024年国际金价涨幅均超过25%。进入2025 年，金价一骑绝尘，3月突破3000美元，10月突破4000美元，并于年末再创新高，逼近4600美元。 在黄金行情带动下，其他贵金属价格也水涨船高，国际白银期价一度突破每盎司80美元，年内上涨约 150%。铂金期货价格飙升至历史新高，首次突破每盎司2300美元大关。此外，铜价年内持续上涨 ...