Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the announced hot-rolled coil production has rebounded but remains at a relatively low level, and there may still be room for further production increases. The rebound in apparent demand shows the resilience of demand, but the subsequent demand increment is limited. The total inventory continues to decline, but the total volume remains at a high level. With the expectation of a relatively loose macro environment, attention should be paid to whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom-bust line. In the future, attention should be paid to the winter storage market in January and the slope of production capacity recovery. Today's daily line closed in the negative territory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main contract of hot-rolled coil futures on Thursday was 248,652 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,280 yuan, the high was 3,291 yuan, and it closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The open interest increased by 9,350 lots [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 0 yuan, indicating a flat basis [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 16,300 tons to 2.9354 million tons compared to the previous period. The year-on-year decrease was 136,000 tons. This week, the hot-rolled coil production rebounded after a significant decline last week and is currently near the lowest level of the year and at a low level in the past four years, which enhances price support [3] - Demand side: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 87,600 tons to 3.0704 million tons compared to the previous period. The year-on-year decrease was 22,900 tons. This week, the apparent demand rebounded, and the export rush market emerged, but the winter storage market in January still needs to be monitored [3] - Inventory side: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 135,000 tons to 3.7722 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 106,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 29,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, and the decline accelerated, indicating that the demand was resilient in late December, presumably due to enterprises rushing to export. However, the total inventory is at a high level in the past four years. In the future, the speed of continued inventory decline needs to be monitored [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, they will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] - External macro: In the United States, the core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1% [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The supply-side production has decreased significantly, there is an expectation of the start of winter storage demand, an export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal have enhanced cost support [5] - Bearish factors: The demand is seasonally weak, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]

全球贸易圈最近被一则消息搅动：墨西哥敲定了明年起对包括中国在内的多个亚洲国家加征关税的政策，税率最高能到50%。 这波操作明眼人都能看出，是照着美国的贸易保护路子学来的，但想靠这种方式保护本土产业，大概率是竹篮打水。 更值得关注的是，这波关税已经提前引发中国对墨出口的下滑，而早有准备的中国龙头企业，正靠着在海外布局的工厂逆势突围，把贸易壁垒变成了产业升 级的契机。 参议院以76票赞成、5票反对、35票弃权的结果，通过了一项新的进出口关税法案。 按照这个法案，从2026年1月1日开始，墨西哥要对汽车、汽车零件、纺织品、家电、钢铁这些常见商品加征关税，税率从5%到50%不等。 大部分商品的税率都定在了35%，算下来，这次加税涉及大约1400种商品，而没和墨西哥签自由贸易协定的中国，成了主要针对对象之一。 墨西哥政府给出的理由很直白，说是为了支持本土产业发展，但稍微了解全球经济的人都知道，这其实是在照抄美国的加税药方。 近年来，美国一直在给墨西哥施压，要求它堵住其他国家商品通过墨西哥转口进入北美市场的通道。 再加上墨西哥自身经济压力不小，2025年三季度经济增速已经由正转负，央行把全年经济增长预期从0.6%降到了0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to relocate its Jiangyin factory, ceasing operations on January 24, 2026, with production being taken over by its wholly-owned subsidiary, the Qinzhou factory, which has a current phosphate production capacity of 300,000 tons, sufficient to meet all customer demand [1] Group 1 - The Jiangyin factory will aim to complete its dismantling by the end of 2026, while the new factory is expected to be completed and operational by the end of 2027, facilitating the company's industrial upgrade and diversification [1] - The operational rates for the Jiangyin and Qinzhou factories will differ in 2024 and 2025, but the Qinzhou factory is projected to achieve an operational rate of over 90% in 2026, with no significant impact on the company's consolidated revenue and profit [1]

Core Viewpoint - Amway Co., Ltd. (300218) emphasizes its main products, which are eco-functional polyurethane synthetic leather and polyurethane composite materials, highlighting their superior physical properties, chemical stability, and ecological characteristics [1] Group 1: Product Characteristics - The products possess excellent physical performance, chemical stability, and functional features [1] - They also incorporate ecological and environmental protection characteristics, making them suitable for various end-consumer products [1] Group 2: Application Areas - The products can be widely applied in functional footwear materials, sofa home furnishings, automotive interiors, consumer electronics, and sports equipment [1] Group 3: Market Alignment - The distinct product advantages and differentiated features align closely with the trend of consumer product upgrades, fitting the future direction of consumption and industrial upgrades [1]

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of Jinxi from a traditional water town to an industrial stronghold exemplifies a successful integration of industry and urban development, showcasing a model for high-quality economic transformation in rural areas [5]. Group 1: Industrial Development - Jinxi has emerged as a competitive industrial ecosystem focusing on three main industries: consumer electronics, communication equipment, and automotive electronics, with a total planned area of 15.1 square kilometers [2]. - The first batch of 41 projects with a total investment exceeding 30 billion was launched, marking the establishment of a significant industrial cluster projected to reach a scale of 100 billion [2]. - The establishment of the Bailian Lake low-altitude test flight base, the first of its kind in East China, highlights Jinxi's commitment to innovative industries, particularly in the low-altitude economy [2]. Group 2: Urban Development - Jinxi's urban development strategy emphasizes the integration of industry and city, with 14 residential projects totaling 12 billion under construction to meet the housing needs of 94,000 residents [3]. - A comprehensive transportation network is being developed, including the "four horizontal and five vertical" system, to enhance connectivity and accessibility [3]. - The introduction of well-known hotel brands and diverse commercial offerings aims to enrich the living experience in Jinxi, balancing industrial strength with livability [3]. Group 3: Talent and Community Services - Jinxi is focused on enhancing the quality of life for its workforce through a comprehensive service system that connects industry, talent, and community needs [4]. - The establishment of a service center for industrial workers aims to provide a one-stop solution for various needs, enhancing workers' sense of belonging and satisfaction [4]. - The collaboration between educational institutions and industries through the establishment of the Lixun Precision Intelligent Manufacturing Industry Academy ensures a continuous supply of skilled talent to meet industrial demands [4]. Group 4: Overall Transformation - Jinxi's transformation reflects a deep dialogue between tradition and modernity, industry and urbanization, and development and livelihood, achieving a harmonious coexistence of historical charm and industrial vitality [5]. - The ongoing development of the Lixun Science Park and the rise of new industries like low-altitude economy indicate Jinxi's potential as a growth pole in southern Kunshan [6]. - Jinxi's experience demonstrates that high-quality rural economic development does not require a choice between tradition and modernity, but rather a precise focus on positioning and execution [6].

Group 1 - The total sales of duty-free shops in Sanya reached 535 million yuan from December 18 to 22, marking a year-on-year increase of 50.3%, with daily sales exceeding 100 million yuan for five consecutive days [1] - On the first day of the closure on December 18, Sanya International Duty-Free City saw over 36,000 visitors, a year-on-year increase of over 60%, and sales surged by 85% compared to the previous year, highlighting the strong impact of the closure on the consumption market [1] - The closure will significantly expand the categories and quotas of duty-free products in Hainan, simplify processes, enhance price competitiveness, attract global consumers, and promote industry upgrades [1] Group 2 - As of December 25, there are 32,400 existing duty-free related enterprises in China, with 45.02% of these established within the last three years [3][8] - The majority of duty-free related enterprises are concentrated in South China, accounting for over 51.62%, while East China holds 25.64% [6] - Hainan province alone accounts for nearly half of the existing duty-free related enterprises in the country, at 46.07%, indicating its dominance in this sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - The development of Guilin taro has transformed it into a billion-dollar industry, driven by its cultural significance and the government's support for rural revitalization [10][12][14]. Industry Overview - Guilin is a renowned production area for taro, particularly the Lijiang taro, which is highly favored by consumers [10][11]. - The peak season for Guilin taro is December, coinciding with the demand for winter delicacies [10][11]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the cultivation of characteristic rural industries to enhance farmers' income [12][14]. Economic Impact - The Guilin taro industry has expanded significantly, with core production areas covering over 180,000 acres, yielding more than 300,000 tons annually and generating over 3.5 billion yuan in value [46]. - Taro has evolved from a staple crop to a valuable asset for farmers, symbolizing hope for wealth and prosperity [47][48]. Brand Development - The Lijiang taro has become a leading brand, recognized as the first agricultural product in Guangxi to obtain origin certification [53]. - The brand has received multiple accolades, including being designated as a special product for the Beijing Olympics and achieving a brand value of 2.626 billion yuan by 2024 [56][58]. - Other emerging brands like Anhe and Qinglong taro are gaining recognition, contributing to the overall growth of Guilin's agricultural products [69][81]. Processing and Value Addition - The industry is shifting from fresh sales to deep processing, enhancing the value of Guilin taro products [88][89]. - The development of frozen products and processed goods like taro paste and taro balls is expanding market opportunities [95][97]. - Companies are also exploring health and wellness markets by developing medicinal and dietary products based on taro's nutritional benefits [108][111]. Future Prospects - The Guilin taro industry is positioned for further growth, supported by government policies, technological advancements, and market expansion [117][118]. - The upcoming promotional event in Beijing aims to strengthen market connections and enhance the visibility of Guilin taro [119].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural characteristics and changes in equity financing for Chinese enterprises, emphasizing its importance as a funding source for business development and reflecting capital market preferences and macroeconomic trends [1]. Financing Stage Classification and Overall Structure - Equity financing is categorized into four stages: startup, growth, expansion, and maturity, each corresponding to different financing rounds, with IPOs being the primary method of financing from 2000 to 2024 [3]. - The disclosed financing amounts for the startup, growth, expansion, and maturity stages are 229.14 billion, 4.4 trillion, 393.88 billion, and 20.7 trillion for mainland listings, respectively, with additional amounts from Hong Kong and U.S. markets totaling 670 billion [5]. Industry Distribution Differences by Stage - In the startup stage, the top three industries receiving financing are scientific research and technical services, information transmission software and IT services, and manufacturing, collectively accounting for over 70%, with scientific research leading at 37.6% [5]. - The manufacturing sector's share decreased from 52.4% in 2020 to 15.2% in 2024, while leasing and business services have seen steady growth [7]. - In the growth stage, the industry distribution remains similar to the startup phase, with manufacturing's share increasing from 16.3% to 31.9% over five years [7]. - The expansion stage shows a unique distribution, with information transmission software and IT services dominating at 45% [7]. Core Structural Features and Recent Trends - The financing structure exhibits four core features: high industry concentration with significant stage differences, pre-IPO financing heavily influenced by IPO rhythms, and a notable increase in early-stage financing since 2010 [12]. - The manufacturing sector remains dominant in post-IPO financing, consistently accounting for over 50% [9]. - Strategic emerging industries, particularly new-generation information technology, have a strong capital attraction, comprising over 60% in early financing [12]. - The support from Hong Kong and U.S. markets for light-asset enterprises has led to over 1 trillion in financing for information transmission software and IT services, surpassing mainland market levels [12]. - The financing demand for high-end manufacturing has risen significantly, indicating the sector's growth potential [13]. - Overall, the equity financing market for Chinese enterprises is maturing, providing robust financial support for high-quality economic development in China [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to rebound strongly in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, while the market structure remains highly differentiated. The article discusses how to seize new opportunities in 2026 from four perspectives: future debate, allocation debate, current debate, and strategy debate [3]. Future Debate - China is unlikely to repeat Japan's lost decades due to its superior innovation capabilities and irreplaceability in the global market. The Chinese economy's rise has diminished Japan's industrial advantages, and the market has shifted from being viewed as "uninvestable" to having "strategic allocation value" [3][9][10]. - The historical context of Japan's economic stagnation post-1990s is contrasted with China's current trajectory, emphasizing that China's innovation in technology and manufacturing is advancing rapidly [7][8]. Allocation Debate - The influx of new capital into the stock market is driven by asset reallocation from residents and financial institutions in a low-interest-rate environment. The real estate market's downturn has transformed it from a source of capital diversion to a driver of stock market growth [4][12]. - High-net-worth individuals and insurance funds are leading this asset reallocation, which is characterized as rational and gradual rather than speculative [12][14]. Current Debate - The article raises concerns about whether AI capital expenditure expectations can be met, highlighting the potential for AI to be a significant technological revolution. However, the high profit margins in the industry may limit the overall economic growth associated with AI [5][19]. - The article discusses the challenges of achieving the necessary revenue growth to support the anticipated capital expenditures in the AI sector, suggesting that the required income increments are substantial compared to the current GDP [20][21]. Strategy Debate - The outlook for 2026 remains positive, but investors should temper their return expectations. The ongoing asset reallocation process is expected to sustain market resilience, with a focus on defensive strategies and identifying opportunities in technology and advanced manufacturing sectors [26][27]. - Specific sectors to watch include: - **Technology**: Continued investment in AI applications and companies that can leverage AI for efficiency [29]. - **Advanced Manufacturing**: Growth in sectors related to AI and robotics, with a focus on domestic cycles and equipment upgrades [30]. - **Consumer**: Identifying resilient companies in traditional sectors that can maintain performance despite broader economic challenges [31]. - **Military**: Anticipated recovery in the military sector as procurement cycles normalize [31]. - **Real Estate**: Looking for structural opportunities in real estate services and resilient developers amid ongoing market adjustments [31].

Core Insights - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has surpassed the 7.00 mark for the first time since September 2024, marking the end of a three-year depreciation cycle and reflecting significant changes in the global economic landscape and domestic fundamentals [2] - The RMB has appreciated over 12% against the USD since its low point in 2024, making it one of the strongest currencies globally [2] Group 1: Key Drivers of RMB Appreciation - **Weakening USD**: The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have led to a decline in the USD index, which fell below 98, creating a favorable environment for non-USD currencies [2] - **Corporate Behavior**: A surge in foreign exchange settlements at year-end, with December 2025 seeing a record settlement volume exceeding $200 billion, driven by strong export performance [2][3] - **Policy Support**: The central bank's adjustments to the exchange rate and cross-border capital management have helped stabilize the RMB, with a reduction in depreciation days to 38% [3] Group 2: Economic Resilience and Structural Changes - **Industrial Upgrades**: The manufacturing sector's value added has reached 32% of the global total, with significant growth in exports of new energy vehicles and 5G equipment [4] - **Capital Market Opening**: The expansion of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and increased foreign investment in Chinese bonds have attracted over 800 billion yuan in foreign capital [4] - **Geopolitical Financial Dynamics**: The expansion of the digital RMB's cross-border payment trials and the establishment of currency settlement channels with countries like Russia and Iran indicate a strategic shift in international finance [5][6] Group 3: Implications for Businesses and Individuals - **Corporate Strategies**: Exporters are encouraged to utilize foreign exchange options to hedge against currency risks, while importers are increasing the use of RMB for cross-border transactions [8][9] - **Personal Finance**: Individuals are advised to adopt strategies such as phased currency purchases to manage costs and to consider investments in gold ETFs and Hong Kong tech stocks [10][11] - **Policy Considerations**: The need for a balanced approach to currency flexibility and cross-border regulatory cooperation is emphasized to support stability in the financial system [12][13] Group 4: Global Perspective on RMB Internationalization - **Trade Settlement**: The proportion of trade settlements in RMB with ASEAN countries has risen to 35%, positioning the RMB as a dominant regional currency [14] - **Debt Valuation**: RMB-denominated bonds in the Belt and Road Initiative have reached a historic high of 41% [14] - **Reserve Currency Status**: Countries like Pakistan and Belarus have included RMB in their foreign exchange reserves, with a share exceeding 10% [14]